Bharat Rakshak

Please use this thread to post the exit polls for 2024 elections once they become available after polls close on 1st June.


Use this thread to post election results and discussions from June 4th till government is sworn in.

Dilbu please be the first to post here.

Thanks.

Please wait for Dilbu.

BJP will lose one.

I don't have deep knowledge of other states, but the NDA situation in Maharashtra is not good. There is widespread anger and confusion at the 4D chess masterstroke of joining hands with Ajit Pawar. Secondly, there is a strong cadre of Shiv Sainiks who are still staunchly with Uddhav. This will surely cut votes and seats in MH. Hope this shortfall will be made up elsewhere.

Shaktimaan wrote: ↑31 May 2024 17:06 I don't have deep knowledge of other states, but the NDA situation in Maharashtra is not good. There is widespread anger and confusion at the 4D chess masterstroke of joining hands with Ajit Pawar. Secondly, there is a strong cadre of Shiv Sainiks who are still staunchly with Uddhav. This will surely cut votes and seats in MH. Hope this shortfall will be made up elsewhere.

OT, but the BJP had not choice but to split the SS & NCP (just as there was no choice but to take back Nitish in Bihar). Going it alone would have
cost them a lot more.

Not an exit poll but I hope Ramana doesnt mind:

May 30th - 4 PM - Satta Bazaar Final Betting Numbers.....

Phalodi Satta Bazaar
Congress - 11
INDI Alliance - 40
BJP - 403
NDA - 498

Palanpur Satta Bazaar
Congress - 23
INDI Alliance - 64
BJP - 386
NDA - 451

Karnal Satta Bazaar
Congress - 33
INDI Alliance - 71
BJP - 359
NDA - 405

Bohri Satta Bazaar
Congress - 7
INDI Alliance - 32
BJP - 352
NDA - 421

Belgaum Satta Bazaar
Congress - 1
INDI Alliance - 9
BJP - 401
NDA - 500

Kolkata Satta Bazaar
Congress - 49
INDIA - 99
BJP - 339
NDA - 403

Vijaywada Satta Bazar
Congress - 9
INDI Alliance - 32
BJP - 399
NDA - 503

Indore Sarafa
Congress - 20
INDI Alliance - 64
BJP - 350
NDA - 444

Ahmedabad Chokha Baar
Congress - 0
INDI Alliance - 27
BJP - 423
NDA - 509

Surat Maghobi
Congress - 37
INDIA - 94
BJP - 347
NDA - 402

Post away now that Dilbu has done his chants.

Gaurav Pradhan writes.

My data says that the Exit Polls numbers will be one sided

A very important trend noticed in this election is that Women voters in all phases have outnumbered men. This is the first time in history such trend is visible

and this is what I had been telling you for last few years that 3 segment will do bumper one sided voting for Modi ji

Women
Youth
Rural

This is result of working on ground.

Shaktimaan wrote: ↑31 May 2024 17:06 I don't have deep knowledge of other states, but the NDA situation in Maharashtra is not good. There is widespread anger and confusion at the 4D chess masterstroke of joining hands with Ajit Pawar. Secondly, there is a strong cadre of Shiv Sainiks who are still staunchly with Uddhav. This will surely cut votes and seats in MH. Hope this shortfall will be made up elsewhere.

I’m confused by the signals too. In my state also I see a lot of vote splitting between Congress and BJP unlike the last time when BJP sweeped everything. But exit polls and Satta bazaar are trending the opposite direction. Hopefully 400 part is breached.

vijayk wrote: ↑31 May 2024 16:15 The word on the street is exit polls are shockingly one sided it seems.

One-sided favouring whom is the big question . Mean while Kejriwal-drama even beating the legendary soap operas and old movies. Will surrender on June 2; take care of my old, ailing parents: Kejriwal to supporters.

https://www.deccanherald.com/elections/ ... es-3046722
And Congis are ot far behind
They dont want to take part any exit polls debate
Meaning Wrtiings on the wall

I saw Kejri's rothdu twitter post, that was serious R R&D

Psephologist Pradeep Bhandari has 350 as his upper end of estimate for the BJP.

BTW what has been the record of satta bazaars ? every now and then you see twitter post saying abc bazaar that has an undefeated record is predicting this

A_Gupta wrote: ↑31 May 2024 21:39 Psephologist Pradeep Bhandari has 350 as his upper end of estimate for the BJP.

what about lower?

Some Exit Polls and real results in 2019..

suryag wrote: ↑31 May 2024 21:42 BTW what has been the record of satta bazaars ? every now and then you see twitter post saying abc bazaar that has an undefeated record is predicting this

They are allover the place so later can claim they were accurate.

Bullseye on PGurus gave an interview today.
Twitter handke Bullseye belongs to pollster JVC Sreeram.

vijayk wrote: ↑31 May 2024 23:21

A_Gupta wrote: ↑31 May 2024 21:39 Psephologist Pradeep Bhandari has 350 as his upper end of estimate for the BJP.

what about lower?

Better than 2019. . Pradeep Bhandari seems to think 325 for BJP is about right. I checked his 2019 prediction - he underestimated.
He had BJP 244-260; NDA 304-316. From the chart above, actual was BJP 303 and NDA 353.

https://www.opindia.com/2019/04/2019-op ... n-ki-baat/

Times Algebra @TimesAlgebraIND

Before Exit Poll, CVoter Director Yashwant Deshmukh calls Rahul Gandhi unfit for politics.

pre exit poll poll

suryag wrote: ↑31 May 2024 21:42 BTW what has been the record of satta bazaars ? every now and then you see twitter post saying abc bazaar that has an undefeated record is predicting this

The Satta bazaar is structured so that the house always wins, whereas a good exit poll gives people unadulterated info. Assuming they have
intellectually rigorous methodology, they only go wrong when it comes to converting vote share to seats.

BJP will lose onlee.

Satta bazar should not even be considered as a data point. Consider it as entertainment in the same vein as our news anchors.

^^^

+1 to that.

suryag wrote: ↑31 May 2024 21:42 BTW what has been the record of satta bazaars ? every now and then you see twitter post saying abc bazaar that has an undefeated record is predicting this

suryag saar,


Some satta bazzar discussions are taking place in this video. It may not be what you wanted but it gives you some idea


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuYnGTpdbBY



Kahani Kursi Ki: 4 जून को केरल-आंध्र...मोदी को देंगे कितने मार्क्स? South India | Lok Sabha Election






The video is 14:23 minutes long

First exit poll in:

PMARQ exit poll

NDA: 359
INDIA: 130

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 617137.cms

Everyone giving 350+ to NDA

Republic TV Matrize 353-368 118-133 43-48

NDTV India 365 142 36

Jan Ki Baat 362-392 141-161 10-20

India News D-Dynamics 371 125 47

Republic TV PMARQ 359 154 30

So essentially pretty similar as the last election, Not too bad considering the alternatives

Watching the India Today - My Axis coverage, They are trying to balance things a little by starting with TN, KA, KL so that there is at least something on the board for dotty alliance before UP, MP, RJ, GJ numbers blow it away

See chattisgarh. Predicting bjp clean sweep

Looks like NDA will lose a lot in Maharashtra which is bad as it goes for state elections in a couple of months

Karnatka stays with BJP/NDA according to Pradeep gupta

Bjp 22-25
JDs 2-3
Inc 3-5

MP clean sweep for BJP (Pradeep Gupta)

Bjp 28-29
Inc 0-1

West Bengal
BJP: 22
TMC : 20

Kati please mention which poll

BIG NATIONAL HEADLINES on #RepublicDoubleExitPoll

1 - Modi 3.0 is the fiercest Modi sweep yet
2 - Pro-incumbency wave is felt at a 3-5% upswing in BJP vote share
3 - BJP breaches 40% vote share nationally
4 - Congress gets 72% Muslim vote
5 - BJP gets 59% of OBC votes
6 - BJP gets 49% of Female votes
7 - 48% of the 18-35 year voters have logged their votes for the BJP
8 - 36-50-year old voter has gone with BJP, polling at 45% for Modi

India's biggest Exit Poll coverage with Arnab is now #LIVE. Tune in here to WATCH - https://youtube.com/live/ERDLMFd-ECE

Rajasthan seems to be disappointing [source Pradeep Gupta]

BJP: 16-19

INC: 5-7

BJP candidate selection is being blamed for this below expectation performance

Sumeet wrote: ↑01 Jun 2024 19:31 Kati please mention which poll

Republic Bharat.

However, a few days back I also posted this exact guess based on my grassroot level info.

Gujarat (Pradeep Gupta)

BJP: 25-26

INC: 0-1

I am waiting for UP & Maharastra numbers from Yashwant and Pradeep Gupta especially

Sumeet wrote: ↑01 Jun 2024 19:37 Rajasthan seems to be disappointing [source Pradeep Gupta]

BJP: 16-19

INC: 5-7

BJP candidate selection is being blamed for this below expectation performance

Rajasthan has changed incumbent state governments every single time for the last 25-30 years. It was a very close fight in assembly poll as well, If a few seats went the other way it would be a comfortable win for Ashok Gehlot

Its looking like losses in Raj/MH will be complemented by gains in South and Bengal to end with either same or similar numbers as last time

Kerala and TN -- BJP will open it's account [Source -- Pradeep Gupta]

AkshaySG wrote: ↑01 Jun 2024 19:48

Sumeet wrote: ↑01 Jun 2024 19:37 Rajasthan seems to be disappointing [source Pradeep Gupta]

BJP: 16-19

INC: 5-7

BJP candidate selection is being blamed for this below expectation performance

Rajasthan has changed incumbent state governments every single time for the last 25-30 years. It was a very close fight in assembly poll as well, If a few seats went the other way it would be a comfortable win for Ashok Gehlot

Its looking like losses in Raj/MH will be complemented by gains in South and Bengal to end with either same or similar numbers as last time

Agreed I wish Rajasthan was managed better.