Bharat Rakshak

KL Dubey wrote: ↑22 Mar 2026 11:00 The situation as I see it right now:

- Iran sarkar (goremint, "mosaic" military, and mullah regime) seem functional with new people taking over

- the top layer of Iran guys from last month have nearly all perished. Only the Prez Pezishkian (sounds uncomfortably close to "pechish-kiya") survives ?

- USA and Israel have bombed a lot of Iran but running out of new meaningful targets. Diminishing returns setting in?

- Iran seems to have plenty of missiles left. Some tunnel entrances claimed to be collapsed but the stuff is still in there to be pulled out when needed?

- Russia and China seem to be helping Iran considerably.

- Other western countries not interested.

- GCC arabs in bad shape, oil infra blown up, US bases destroyed and not operational (is this confirmed?). Possibly seeing nightmares of going back to camel breeding/date farming...the sands eventually burying the oil fields.

- Israel also seems in bad shape ? Tel Aviv seems battered, recently Jerusalem ("holy city" areas included) was hit by Iran I think.

- Trump sarkar claimed war is won, no need for allies ---> wait, we need allies to open the Strait ----> well, if nobody is interested then we still don't need any allies, all useless fellows ----> Sending boots on ground ---> Plan deferred/slowed down ----> next ???

- Folks like retd karnail MacGregor (Trump protege till recently), prof Mearsheimer (also military background), and one Scott Ritter (former nukular inspector sahib?) all keep saying "Iran is winning since it is still surviving and make things unmanageable for others both militarily and oil supplies through the hormuz and possibly red sea routes". These people seem to have gained a lot of following during the Ukraine war for "correct/realistic" predictions. What do BRF "experts" think ?

A different angle from Bharat perspective: mullah-rabbi-padre conflicts playing out in west asia. Which, BTW, is where all of abrahamism started (and seems like could end there).

- In my opinion padre is too far away geographically from continental Asia to be directly able to wrest control of Iran (~100 mn population), at the most they could dent Iran by air and sea strikes till munitions run out.

- While we have used rabbi as a partner, they are too small (~7 million) and too dependent on padre and desalination plants. Effectively, rabbi is/was padre's main strike package in west asia but they seem to be nearing exhaustion too.

- at the same time, rabbi has used intelligence agencies to apparently make padre acquiesce to their goals...i can't help but think Apestein was a part of that same blackmail/intelligence network

- mullahs on both sides (across the strait and across shia/sunni divide) are getting hammered one way or the other. Iran people have mostly lost faith in abrahamism, and GCC arabs care more about their lavish lifestyles and having foreign hired guns to run their countries.

- For Bharat, other than the fuel disruptions, this seems another lucky break in accelerating return of Bharat because mullah-padre-rabbi are busy trying to destroy each other.

- How best should Bharat play this ? I'd say: Double down on indigenous clean energy. "Support" all three combatants to the point of exhaustion, since none of them is strong enough to force us to "choose a side" other than our own side. Make the combatants more dependent on us (food, security, meds etc). Recall Indian expats from GCC and integrate them in Bharat economy (will have much higher impact than getting remittances). Ditch petrodollar, strengthen BRICS (Bharat is the chair this year). Anything else ?

Well, they're gonna have to get themselves better public relations people. We've had very strong talks. Mr Witkoff and Kushner had them. They went perfectly.

Cyrano wrote: ↑23 Mar 2026 22:13 With several levels of Iranian leadership decapitated, who is the they/them he is referring to?
Assuming they/them did call, what authority and control do they/them have in Iran to hold up whatever is agreed?

He is just bs ing to make some quick moolah as the markets swing up and down with such news and buy time until the ships with boots arrive in the region.

A_Gupta wrote: ↑23 Mar 2026 18:29 Bloomberg reporting (summarized by other outlets) states the U.S. lost 16 military aircraft during the Iran campaign, but not 16 fighter jets. Losses included a mix of aircraft types, and only some were fighter jets (e.g., F‑15E, F‑35 incidents).

Firstpost
Reported the U.S. has lost 16 military aircraft in the Iran war.
Breakdown:
12 MQ‑9 Reaper drones
4 crewed aircraft:
Three F‑15s (friendly fire by Kuwait)
One KC‑135 tanker (refueling accident)
Loss figures attributed to Bloomberg.

All detailed reporting on U.S. aircraft losses—such as the widely cited figure of 16 U.S. aircraft lost—comes from:
Bloomberg
Firstpost
Zee News
South China Morning Post
Times of India

Had a detailed telecon this evening with US @SecRubio Our discussions focused on the West Asia conflict and its impact on the international economy. We particularly spoke about energy security concerns. Agreed to remain in touch.

• BREAKING. Thirty-six hours ago President Donald Trump said “obliterate.” This morning he said “productive conversations.” The question every trader, diplomat, and general is asking: what broke between Saturday night and Monday morning?
  
  Six things broke simultaneously. Not one of them was Iranian.
  
  First. The bill arrived. The Pentagon requested over $200 billion in supplemental funding. The war cost $11.3 billion in six days, $16.5 billion in twelve. At $1.38 billion per day and accelerating, congressional resistance to the supplemental is real. The money that was supposed to fund “days not weeks” now needs a vote that may not pass.
  
  Second. The Fed killed the rate-cut thesis. On March 18, the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5 to 3.75 percent and revised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 2.7 percent from 2.4, citing the Iran war energy shock. The dot plot shows one cut in all of 2026, down from two. Every basis point of delayed easing is pain for housing, credit, and the Magnificent Seven. The war that was supposed to demonstrate strength is demonstrating inflation.
  
  Third. The allies revolted politely. Twenty-two countries signed up to coordinate on Hormuz. Zero committed a warship during combat. Japan is releasing strategic reserves. South Korea’s Kospi has fallen 12 percent. Europe’s gas surged 35 percent after Qatar’s LNG was knocked offline & declared force majeure up to 5 years. Trump called NATO “cowards” and got a press release. The coalition of the willing is a coalition of the waiting.
  
  Fourth. TSMC sent the signal. Taiwan imports nearly 97 percent of its energy. Its LNG reserves cover 11 days. Qatar supplies a third of global helium, which TSMC needs for chip fabrication. The helium is bottled behind a closed strait. Every Nvidia GPU, every Apple chip, every AI cluster depends on a fab in Hsinchu counting its gas in single-digit days. The Magnificent Seven have shed hundreds of billions as energy rotation crushes tech.
  
  Fifth. Birol named the damage. The IEA chief told Australia this morning that 40 energy assets across nine countries are severely damaged, global oil supply has fallen 11 million barrels per day, the crisis exceeds both 1970s shocks combined, and no country is immune. He named fertilisers and helium as interrupted flows. The man who runs global energy security called the war Trump started the worst energy crisis in modern history.
  
  Sixth. The midterms. Gas prices are up 93 cents per gallon. Sixty-six percent of Americans call this a war of choice. Sixty percent disapprove. Fifty-seven percent say it is going badly. The numbers that matter in Washington are not barrels per day. They are approval ratings in swing states where voters fill their tanks every Tuesday.
  
  Six pressures. One post. President Trump did not discover diplomacy. He discovered arithmetic. The 48-hour ultimatum was a threat. The 5-day pause is a confession that the threat’s consequences were worse than its target. Destroying power plants would have sealed the strait permanently, triggered Ghalibaf’s promise to “irreversibly destroy” Gulf desalination and energy infrastructure, crashed TSMC’s supply chain, spiked inflation past 3 percent, and handed the midterms to the opposition on a platter of $7 gasoline.
  
  The pause is real. The relief is not. The strait is still closed. The 40 assets are still damaged. The fertiliser is still blocked. The planting window is still closing. The five-day clock is already ticking.
  
  The molecules do not negotiate. The molecules wait.

“You struck our hospitals, we did not do the same. You struck our emergency centers, we did not do the same. You struck our schools, we did not do the same. But if you strike electricity, we will strike electricity.”

Cyrano wrote: ↑24 Mar 2026 04:00 My guess is that these 5 day talks will fail, OM will get the troops to occupy an island or two, possibly with connivance of whoever is representing Iran, declare victory and spin it until midterms. Both sides will go at each other after a few months of R&R.
Meanwhile the world can go to hell or starve with high energy prices but who cares?!

williams wrote: ↑24 Mar 2026 05:12

Cyrano wrote: ↑24 Mar 2026 04:00 My guess is that these 5 day talks will fail, OM will get the troops to occupy an island or two, possibly with connivance of whoever is representing Iran, declare victory and spin it until midterms. Both sides will go at each other after a few months of R&R.
Meanwhile the world can go to hell or starve with high energy prices but who cares?!

Occupying is one thing, holding and having a safe supply logistics bridge is another thing. Iran is not Afghanistan, they have some beef. They will make it bloody. Midterms is already a goner and it is for the Democrats to lose. Too many clown demonstration that woke up independents and young voters. I think this is going to be one of those classic TACOs. Next stop Cuba!