Managing Pakistan's failure

[A_Gupta]

Gwadar is a project on hold. It will remain on hold as long as the US is in control.

I don't see any US hand.

[RajeshA]

X-Posted from The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles Thread

CONCLUSION :-

1. Pakisatan falls bang in middle of 3 vectors, Amir Khan, Chipanda and House of Saud. Since 2 of the 3 vectors fall towards American control, It is my opinion that Amir Khan will retain that control for the forseable future.
2. No one controls/understands mullahs/Taliban completely. But via wahhabi/deobandhi madrassas funded by the Saudis, America will retain some control albeit indirectly.
The House of Saud has a lot of investments in the UK/US to ignore their requests.
3. Burgeoning population,lack of strong civilian control,rising illiteracy and poor employment( along with no country wanting any more talibunnies to come to their country). All this points to civilian unrest at some point in the near future.
4. At some stage, the cost of maintaining/propping pakisatan will more than the gain they achieve, so Chipanda and Amirkhan might balkanise Pakisatan to make it more fundable and manageable.

Maram ji,
thanks for your efforts in summarizing the strengths, weaknesses and necessities.

I have some difference of opinion on your conclusions though.

1&2. House of Saud is not the only Islamist power in game, or for that matter Wahhabi power in game. House of Saud and its supporters support the whole Wahhabization of Islam through their charities because that is their debt to Wahhab. Without their generous support to the cause, the House would lose their claim to the throne pretty quickly and all the wolves would be baying for their blood. Through this support, they do get a certain respect and influence in Pakistan.

At the same time, we need to talk about the "Wahhawolves" - rival more pious centers of power in the House of Saud, the Hizb ut-Tahrir, the Muslim Brotherhood, the Al Qaeda and Associated Movements.

The House of Saud is sandwiched between the other Islamic sects and the Wahhawolves, and they have only a free flow of petrodollar generosity and American support, keeping them above water.

The Wahhawolves are all quite active in Pakistan, often nurturing themselves through the Saudi generosity itself, and giving the Wahhabization its militant edge.

The claim, that the House of Saud together with USA have an edge over China, is misleading. I would say, the Wahhawolves weaken the hold of USA and House of Saud on Pakistan, and China profits from this weakened influence.

3. Consider a pyramid resting on its head with its base in the air. Depending on how flat and broad its head is, the more stability would be in the pyramid. Desperation, Anger at the Power Elite, High Expectations, Freedom and Military Capacity of the Base (which is in the air) would agitate it and cause it to tip over, toppling the power structure. But if the head (which rests on the ground) is broad enough, and glued enough to the ground, the turned over pyramid would remain stable.

Any society, Indian or Pakistan would follow this dynamic.

In Pakistan, what is happening is that the head of the pyramid (resting on the ground), which was made up of RAPE, Feudals, Army Jernails, had become weakened. The Islamists had made their way down towards the head of the upturned pyramid. When the head collapses under the weight of the pyramid, the pyramid would come to rest on the next layer - the Islamists.

Now the Islamists would be concentrating all power into their hands, i.e. building the glue to the ground, and this power would be fairly distributed and organized amongst the commanders of the Islamist set-up, whose aim would be to control their own little Islamic fiefdoms.

From the conditions necessary for the toppling of such a system, only desperation would be available but not much more.

1. No Freedom - One would not need to design some unnatural artificial new system of authoheritarianism. All the elements needed are available in Islam(ism). - Everything that doesn't suit the Islamist powers that be, would be officially against Islam, and as such would not be tolerated.
   
   At the moment, the Elite-in-Waiting, the Islamists, have full freedom to hold the present government to ransom, be it through public rallies, be it through Ghazi Mumtaz Qadris, be it through the mosques and Friday prayers.
2. No High Expectations - It is education that causes high expectations in normal societies. The Taliban will see to it, that education is one-dimensional. Also the people are told that they will get all the want and need after they die - be it their 72s or two meals a day.
   
   By always acceding to the demands of the Islamists, except in the case of the Red Mosque, the current Pakistani Elite has given the next layer of Elite-in-Waiting, the Islamists sufficient reason to hope for toppling the current system.
3. No Military Capacity - At the moment the Islamists have the military capacity. That is why they can threaten the current elite. When the Islamists take over, the question remains whether there would be sufficient military capacity left in the rest of the population. Most probably according to Islamic jurisprudence, all other elements capable of violence would be hanged for their non-Islamic ways, and the others would join the system as its foot-soldiers.
   
   At the moment, the Islamists have sufficient power to cause chaos and to make pin-pointed attacks for psychological pressure on the current regime. In the Army also, the influence of the Islamists has increased. So they are in a good position to take over, especially because the cadre in the military would cooperate when the time is ripe.
4. No Anger at the Power Elite - When Islamists control the levers of power, the ordinary people would see their Islamist elite not in opulent robes, wining and dining with foreigners, but rather a pious bend of mind and attitude. The anger would remain contained.
   
   At the moment, the RAPE wine and dine with the Kufr, with ideological enemies of Islam, they plunder their country, corruption is everywhere, so the Elite-in-Waiting, the Islamists can generate sufficient anger amongst the faithful to topple the current regime.
5. Contained Desperation - It is not just availability of food items that lead to desperation. Shoddy distribution can just as much be a culprit. We have seen Hamas, and other organizations with Dawas, putting up a good show at management of a public distribution system. It too can be emulated in Pakistan, and to some extent it already is.
   
   The shoddy governance of the current regime has caused much poverty and disenchantment and desperation amongst the people, and it grows. That and the comparison to relatively well run dawas would give the general populace reason to welcome the Islamists with open arms.

So the conditions are such, that the Islamists can topple the current regime, if not right away, then some time soon, but the conditions would never be such, that an Islamist regime would be toppled easily in Pakistan, at least not for a long period of time.

4. Pakistan is Pakistan because it is a conglomerate of ethnicities and provinces, where the only glue to keep it together is Islam and the anti-India bogey. You start breaking up the place, and the region loses its current justification for existence based on its present India-centric Enmity. Why would USA and China want to do that?

Besides it may not be up to them as the current regime also has a say in it, and a future Islamist regime would have a lot more say in it.

When one speaks of propping up Pakistan, one should know, that most of the aid has gone into the pockets of various Jernails, Feudals and RAPE. Not much has really touched the poor.

Pakistan has been chugging along based on its own devices. It should not be forgotten that Pakistan is basically an agricultural country, with a relatively good system of irrigation. If they improve the available system, they could easily increase their productivity 2 to 3 times, and feed a twice a big population. Besides poverty in the world has proven that humans can survive at a much lower level of sustenance.

With respect to Pakistan, it is best to not read too much into economic woes. The economic woes only point to a regime change in Pakistan, a change to an Islamist regime. However it does not point to a Pakistan under the Islamists incapable of ruling Pakistan.

This thinking that USA and/or China cannot prop up Pakistan in the future is too optimistic and I dare say misleading for our strategy towards Pakistan.

[ramana]

Nightwatch comments on PTI (Pakistan-Tehrik- Insaaf) Imran Khan's rants!

Nightwatch 2/28/2011

Pakistan: The leader of the Pakistani political party Pakistan Tehrik-Insaaf (PTI), Imran Khan, said his party will take to the streets if US agent Raymond Davis is freed - on bail or otherwise -- or the price of petroleum products and other commodities rise, The News reported on 28 February.


Khan called upon the people, especially the young, to save Pakistan from corrupt leaders with a revolution for change. He said the current regime took money from foreigners who are allowed to kill innocents in drone attacks and operate secret agents like Davis that kill innocents on the roads in broad daylight. He added if the Egyptians, who are more oppressed than Pakistanis, can have a revolution and change, then Pakistan should be able to as well.


Comment: One significant part of Khan's rant is the call to anti-American activism directed at the youth. A second point is the linkage to increased fuel and commodity prices. Khan created a link that otherwise does not exist ,but which implicilty blames the US for higher prices for basic necessities and other ills. The link is rhetorical, not based in economics.

Regardless, Pakistan has not experienced the political convulsions that cell phone technology and social media have enabled in the Middle East. Pakistan's turn is coming - there are just too many grievances against the Gilani government. Imran Khan, who is a famous retired cricket champion who has gone into politics, has not helped the cause of internal stability.

[devesh]

Shiv:

US has a very good idea as to what it is doing in Pak-land. it is sowing the seeds of chaos. the basic geopolitical tenet of Britain and now America, is to spread chaos and disorder on the Eurasian land mass. in Europe, this process is done with much care for the image of the Anglo order. in non-European Eurasia, it is done without any regard, in a classic cloak-and-dagger process via secret channels and intelligence operations spanned over years and decades. generally speaking, if there is chaos, anarchy, disorder, civil war, etc in a major power center of Eurasia, that event is considered very auspicious for American power. easy to play the role of the Globo-cop if shit is hitting the fan!

[ManuT]

I think it might be time to ask this question.

What if, wrt TSP the following situation to gets played on India, where GOI cannot remain passive but (again) has to be reactive. That IA will need to get a move on with 'what it has' is not the question, how should the response shape up?

As TSP is about to go under after the tipping point in failure to rein in 'Pakistani Taliban' by TSPA, the PPP-PML come together and decide to accede to the Union of India?

We have the example of Sikkim 1976 where the Legislature acceded to the Union of India. Hari Singh himself acceded in not very dissimilar circumstances to the one mentioned above.

What would GOI appropriate response be, 
(A) should it now send in IA to fight side by side with TSPA elements loyal to the govt of TSP and against the rest of TSPA-ISI-Taliban combine OR

(B) Ignore it, let TSP sink in the hole they have been trying to dig for India. In this case will GOI be accused of missing a golden chance at rolling back the partition.

(C) ...

From my POV, MMS gets blamed either way. 

(Also, will ask similar question about Tibet in the Tibet thread.) 

[RajeshA]

I think it might be time to ask this question.

What if, wrt TSP the following situation to gets played on India, where GOI cannot remain passive but (again) has to be reactive. That IA will need to get a move on with 'what it has' is not the question, how should the response shape up?

As TSP is about to go under after the tipping point in failure to rein in 'Pakistani Taliban' by TSPA, the PPP-PML come together and decide to accede to the Union of India?

We have the example of Sikkim 1976 where the Legislature acceded to the Union of India. Hari Singh himself acceded in not very dissimilar circumstances to the one mentioned above.

What would GOI appropriate response be, 
(A) should it now send in IA to fight side by side with TSPA elements loyal to the govt of TSP and against the rest of TSPA-ISI-Taliban combine OR

(B) Ignore it, let TSP sink in the hole they have been trying to dig for India. In this case will GOI be accused of missing a golden chance at rolling back the partition.

(C) ...

From my POV, MMS gets blamed either way. 

(Also, will ask similar question about Tibet in the Tibet thread.) 

ManuT ji,
that would be a situation for which brihaspati garu would have a perfect answer!

[RajeshA]

Solving Pakistan: Solution 1

The Supari Plantation Solution
This solution involves either hunting down and finishing off all Pakistani Army and ISI officers and anti-India Sarkari Jihadis or forcing them to stand down against India, by using proxies and several layers of plausible deniability.

Exploring a previous post.

Prem ji,

consider a scenario. Every year India gives Afghanistan 1 billion USD. Afghanistan uses 500 million USD for its development, and the other 500 million USD for strategic cooperation with India.

With the 500 million USD, the Afghans, perhaps the Durrani Pushtuns or other friends of India there, distribute that sum amongst Pushtun warlords and Taliban who are willing to do some work for them. These warlords and Taliban then pay the amount to Jihadis in Pakistan, and these Jihadis go and cause mayhem in Pakistan on an unprecedented scale.

This is proxy war, this is asymmetric war. This is the war that Pakistanis have been carrying out in India. For this proxy war they have used some Kashmiris and some SDRE Muslims.

Now a proxy war India could carry out in Pakistan would have Pushtun foot-soldiers, more blood-thirsty and more ruthless than 10 deranged SDRE Muslims. If we invest 100 times more money than what Pakistan has ever invested, on a population one sixth of India, that means we get 6000 fold more mayhem in Pakistan, than anything that ever visited India.

If we consider that the desperation of the people in Pakistan due to inflation etc. would be much more than in India, and the Jihadi would be willing to work for half the cost, than in India, especially as the supply of Jihadis in Pakistan is also much greater and due to laws of supply and demand, then the mayhem in Pakistan could be around 12000 times that reached in India.

Afghan with their Army of Mayhem and India with its Conventional Army can squeeze the Pakjabis that they start wondering why Allah is using Pakis like a punching bag.

For all of this, we don't have to wait till 2030 to get a strategy for bringing down Pakistan going. We have the money. We have the contacts in Afghanistan. This is something we can do today, and bring Pakistan to its knees.

If the money is too little, then we just raise it to 2 billion USD a year.

If India has money to spend, then Pakistan is history! Everybody knows that it is infinitely more difficult to build something than tearing it down. That goes for stability of an institution like the Pakistani Army & ISI also.

India needs to set up

1. a system of mapping all Sarkaris - the Pakistani Army, ISI, Sarkari Jihadis officials and commanders;
2. a system of distribution of money for services rendered - supari outsourcing and distribution.
3. a system for verification of success.

There are so many Afghans who know how to use weapons. Soon they will be needing some employment. One can imagine that many teams/gangs from various villages could consider jumping in into this lucrative business. In every village in Eastern Afghanistan, the men gather into teams, bid their women farewell, and go hunting for Pakjabi heads for the next four months.

They call up the local agent, or make contact through certain middlemen, and get a supari. There would be a place where they can rent weapons, get maps, get intelligence on various sarkaris, set up a communications subnetwork for their group, look for accommodation, etc. One can set up a whole industry around "head hunting".

When they are finished with their suparis, they call up their agents, and collect their rewards. They go back to their villages and then one sees them celebrating in their little village like Asterix and Obelix in their Gallic village.

There will be many scenarios, but the point is that 2 billion USD a year for hunting down the Pakjabi Sarkaris is good money and would encourage the development of Afghanistan and Pushtun areas of Pakistan.

No Pakjabi that has ever raised his voice against India, or taken up arms against India should be spared. Also any forces that are raised to curb this violence, would themselves be targeted. The only ones who would be spared are those within the Pakjabi Sarkari system who help the Assassination Squads to target their colleagues.

Within six, seven years one would see the Pakjabis begging to be taken off the hit list and calling "a special hot line" for mercy!

The whole system can be cleansed of all anti-India Pakjabis within a few years, and all this for the cost of a major weapon system. The fun part is that India can continue with their chai-biscuit sessions with the Pakistanis as business as usual.

[surinder]

RajeshA, such a strategy would then invite a counter strategy of TSP'ians printing fake Rs and doing the same supari on Indian leaders. The Hamid Gul thing always has been, regardless of who hits us, we hit India. What are we going to do about that?

[RajeshA]

Solving Pakistan: Solution 1

The Supari Plantation Solution (cont.)

RajeshA, such a strategy would then invite a counter strategy of TSP'ians printing fake Rs and doing the same supari on Indian leaders. The Hamid Gul thing always has been, regardless of who hits us, we hit India. What are we going to do about that?

Well its high time, we move our currency printing a notch or two in technology. We can learn a bit from the Europeans. So the currency move needs to be done regardless of the Pakistani threat.

We also need to get a control over our Nepalese border, and see to it that it is not used to undermine us.

In any case, we should be gifting Afghans loads and loads of Pakistani currency, which we print. We can swamp Pakistan with so much inflation, that if the Afghans don't take out the Pakistani leadership, then the Pakistanis themselves would do it. Besides Afghans would love doing this job. Nothing would give them more pleasure at killing Pakjabis and being paid for it too!

The porousness of the Durand Line would be in our favor. Anyway with our cash reserves, we can do so much damage to Pakistan and so quickly, they will be left gasping.

We would have to give extra protection to the Indian Leadership during those years.

From Quadrification we know, that the Islamists have hollowed out the Pakistani system. SSridhar garu has also often told about the divide in the Pakistani Army, between the more Anglo-American friendly leadership and the Pious footsoldiers. So one only needs to be able to work these fissures.

We can burn Muridke and Rawalpindi without having to set a foot in Pakistan.

Moreover, the dozen layers of plausible deniability, and getting the Islamists to hit at the anti-India elements, does allow sufficient fog to mask who really holds the dagger. We should any way, keep on insisting we are an open book, and there is no proof of our involvement.

But these are all precautions. I would simply say, India should go ahead with such a plan, without fearing too much in retaliation. If retaliation happens, then it happens. We have got deep pockets, and we can continue the game for a very long time. We have the stamina.

Hamid Gul will bark a lot, and may be bite a little. We should set our minds on sucking the bones of the Pakistanis dry! We should let the likes of Hamid Guls make their sound-bites, and don't let ourselves get intimidated.

They need to know, that enmity with India doesn't come free of cost.

Secondly our country is based on institutions. Pakistan is based on personalities. If the personalities go, Pakistan goes.

Once the Pushtun-Pakjabi rift deepens, the Pakjabis would automatically run towards the Indians looking for cover.

surinder ji,
We have to remember that there is hardly any perfect solution out there. We have to just the take the best of the bad solutions.

[Narad]

RajeshAji, Excellent post as usual.

Unfortunately, such political will cannot be expected from MMS. We need to have NM to continue the legacy of Sardar Patel.

[Lalmohan]

removing the instruments of power may be insufficient to bring about transformational change in the former pakistan federation (FPF). societal change - weaning away from jehad and ghazwa-e-hind... that is only going to come about if there is a cataclysmic event within pakistan - economic collapse, famine, cyclone, floods, all out civil war. i.e. something bigger and badder than anything that has happened so far...

otherwise we will not see a shift in the bedrock (of sustained knee jerk hatred of india)

[RajeshA]

removing the instruments of power may be insufficient to bring about transformational change in the former pakistan federation (FPF). societal change - weaning away from jehad and ghazwa-e-hind... that is only going to come about if there is a cataclysmic event within pakistan - economic collapse, famine, cyclone, floods, all out civil war. i.e. something bigger and badder than anything that has happened so far...

otherwise we will not see a shift in the bedrock (of sustained knee jerk hatred of india)

Lalmohan ji,
Just some thoughts on that.

Pakistan does not have a bedrock, IMHO. One tends to think that the whole country has gone to the Islamists, and everybody is a pious Islamist!

For the people of Pakjab, an appropriate song would be the unforgettable
"Hawa men udta jaaye, mera laal dhupatta malmal ka,
ho jee, ho jee!"

They all go with the wind! They are more than happy to follow those, who have the biggest stick, and wield it from time to time!

When Ghazi Malik Mumtaz Hussain Qadri mowed down Salman Taseer, Rehman Malik, who could not recite the Surat al-Ikhlas properly, vowed to shoot the Blasphemers himself! Or for that matter, whenever the TSPA decides to move in and depose the Prime Minister, all start showering flowers onto the khakhis.

If one starts killing off the anti-Indian elements in the establishment (probably the whole establishment) and their families, the rest of the Pakistanis would fall in line pretty quickly.

The Pakistanis bow very readily to ruthless use of force!

[Vikas]

RajeshA, Complete paradigm shift if Indian Leadership follows your course of action. Of course it will require some fine tuning too and it also does involve risk of losing few of our own leaders but then what are the odds that they will not be blown in some bomb blast as TSP continues to grows cajuns. The other risk is that as TSP continues on the Path of piousness, we don't know how it will play upon the IM as much as we try to game future scenario's. We have already seen few local terrorists aligning themselves with LeT and other terrorist organizations.

So instead of India trying to occupy some piece of land after every Terrorist action in India or shelling villages near borders, let Afghans be paid by GoI to
raid Pakis and take back few heads on top of their spears along with Maal-e-Gairat.
Few Thappads like that and TSP will act like a docile local dog.

[shiv]

Shiv:

US has a very good idea as to what it is doing in Pak-land. it is sowing the seeds of chaos. the basic geopolitical tenet of Britain and now America, is to spread chaos and disorder on the Eurasian land mass. in Europe, this process is done with much care for the image of the Anglo order. in non-European Eurasia, it is done without any regard, in a classic cloak-and-dagger process via secret channels and intelligence operations spanned over years and decades. generally speaking, if there is chaos, anarchy, disorder, civil war, etc in a major power center of Eurasia, that event is considered very auspicious for American power. easy to play the role of the Globo-cop if shit is hitting the fan!

Devesh - I have heard this for too long, and too many times, from too many people and have had the opportunity to examine world events through this precise viewing glass over a span of many years. I am not saying that the facts you state are incorrect. They are perfectly correct. But those correct facts that you rightly recognize as the US's great plan started off as being fundamentally damaging to India. The plan started backfiring when India could no longer be significantly kept in check despite the chaos.

A Britain that clawed its way to the top in the world did so by castrating the Islamic empires and sowing such chaos. As part of continuing to dominate islamic yahoos they set up two diabolical schemes to keep the Islamic yahoos busy. One was Israel - where an Island of Yahud was set up in Dar ul islam. The other was the partition of India where other Islamic yahoos would be busy fighting the heathen races.

The US's cleverness is fundamentally good for the people inside the US, or those dependent on the US and is worthy of admiration from them. But the US's "cleverness" is fundamentally damaging to India. This is why I have insisted time and again that Pakistan will fall when the US falls (never mind what "fall" means). But even that statement from me is getting dated because despite all the odds the plan of keeping Islamic yahoos and India fighting each other lasted just a few decades and India has grown bigger. And the controlled chaos of Pakistan is breaking apart. The US is no longer in control and as forum discussions indicate the talk is of what comes next.

The US had a clever plan yes. It was a long term plan and cleverly executed as you state. Yes. But it is falling apart. India has got hit by the plan from day 1 and survived, and may still get hit. But the US is starting to get hit too. The US will try and avoid getting hit by making someone else face the blows that are coming. I don't want India to be that someone else. I don't care if the US gets hit - I would cheer if it does as I cheered after 9-11 for the same reason. My sentiments in this regard are likely different from some others.

As I see it - any Indian action that attracts Paki nukes would help the US and China. Any action by anyone else that attracts Paki aggression towards them is a little less aggression towards India and an opportunity for Pakistan to expend itself and the lives of its own people against someone else. More power to the anti US yahoos of Pakistan. We don't need to fight them. We don't need to help the US. The US is clever, powerful and strong with or without us. It is the US that has to choose whether they really want us or want to continue to be oh so clever.

[RajeshA]

Solving Pakistan: Solution 1

The Supari Plantation Solution (cont.)

RajeshA, Complete paradigm shift if Indian Leadership follows your course of action. Of course it will require some fine tuning too and it also does involve risk of losing few of our own leaders but then what are the odds that they will not be blown in some bomb blast as TSP continues to grows cajuns.

VikasRaina ji,
as a means of provision of a further level of assurance of security for the Indian leadership, I would suggest, that in the wake of an apparently arbitrary onslaught against the Pakjabi establishment - the Sarkaris, by the Pushtun, Taliban and criminal gangs, India in parallel starts offering a safe haven to the families of some of the the Sarkaris.

We offer these safe havens as asylum, as a gesture of sympathy for the Pakistanis, "whose lives are under unnecessary risk from terrorists".

This creates a pro-India lobby within the Pakistani Establishment itself, even as they are being mowed down by violence financed by Indian money!

As many of the Pakistani Establishment send their children and wives to India for their safety and for studies, back in Pakistan, they use their influence within the Establishment to reject any theories that the violence is being perpetrated by Indians, but rather fall for the most obvious reason, that it is being carried out by the Afghans, and Pushtuns for the perceived crimes that Pakjabis have carried out on the Afghan population, and this violence is their payback!

They could fear, that should the Indians think that Pakistani Establishment is targeting Indian leadership, the Indians would stop giving Pakistanis some relief by letting them in into India.

Another way of looking at this is: At the moment India does not have many cards to play against Pakistan, because behind gated communities, the Pakistani Establishment feels relatively safe. Secondly the West still allow a certain number of Pakistanis to migrate there, so even those who feel insecure still have somewhere to run to.

When the maromari reaches the Pakistani Establishment with a vengeance, and Pakistanis lose even the option of migrating to the West, an Indian offer to take them in, or at least their families, would find substantial favor. Then India has a card to play. But for that India has to ready both the khanjar and the marham!

This is not much different than Pakistan's own terrorism policy. They carry out terrorist attacks and then they offer respite by withholding those attacks for a few months, and then ask for Jizya for the respite.

In our case, we would not be so crude and claim full innocence in any case of maromari.

[Vikas]

Rajesha ji, Why do we Indians in the end somehow end up sympathizing with the enemy.
The problem that I have is - Why offer the snakes and vipers asylum in our country. You can never have Pro-India lobby in Pakistan. They might do taqqiyya for the time being but will come back to bite us at the very first opportunity.
They are the ones responsible for death of so many Indians. I have nothing but loathe for them. If possible we should catch these fleeing pest and hand them over to Islam pasand forces for Islamic justice.

[RajeshA]

Solving Pakistan: Solution 1

The Supari Plantation Solution (cont.)

Rajesha ji, Why do we Indians in the end somehow end up sympathizing with the enemy.
The problem that I have is - Why offer the snakes and vipers asylum in our country. You can never have Pro-India lobby in Pakistan. They might do taqqiyya for the time being but will come back to bite us at the very first opportunity.
They are the ones responsible for death of so many Indians. I have nothing but loathe for them. If possible we should catch these fleeing pest and hand them over to Islam pasand forces for Islamic justice.

VikasRaina ji,
there is zero sympathy!

We have been dealt a bad hand, or may be we allowed ourselves to be cornered in this unfavorable position viz-a-viz Pakistan. As it is, we have to accept the truth of what we face!

During and after Partition, many Pakistani leaders including Jinnah considered the Hindus and Sikhs in Pakistan to be their hostages, should India mistreat our Muslims, or for other reasons. That was the mentality.

If one wishes, one could consider the families of the Pakistani Establishment people given asylum in India, as our hostages, which they willingly offer!

The point however is, that if we set out to finish Pakistan, we have to use the best strategy available, one which does the most needed damage to Pakistan, while spares India a blowback. And if the strategy means that we lie or we smile at them or even hug some of them, then we do it!

Let's not be afraid of taqiyya. Taqiyya only works on them, who are willing to repose trust in others. Trust has nothing to do with our equation with Pakistanis.

[devesh]

Shiv:

thank you for the response. i agree with your conclusion that Paki situation is out of control and US can't control it as it used to be able to. imo, the establishment of Dharma in the 21 century also involves a struggle against Anglo-American imperialism. if I must wish for one thing which would end Anglo imperialism in all its forms, then i must wish for a decisive break of America from the Atlanticist mould. this is not going to happen b/c Americans became all moral and pious. this will happen if the continued existence of an imperialist establishment becomes unfeasible. this process has already started. Uncle faces so many problems that it has no choice but to slowly abdicate its foreign role to regional powers who don't have a deep hatred for America.

to fulfill the void, India must start laying the foundation for its strategy right now. i would say that we don't have much time to waste. America's dominance of the global order is devolving fast and will continue to do so. the vast corridor from Germany in the West to Japan in the East is moving out from the post-WWII order.

[Sudip]

Pak legislator migrated to India willingly: PPP


The trickle of humanity from hell has begun.
Lets have a poll on how many years it would take for the trickle to turn into a torrent.

[Lalmohan]

The Azad Pakistan Government in Exile will soon be sitting in Lahore and broadcasting on Satellite TV channels whilst faujis give kanada vijas to any woman, boy and goat they can get their mijjiles to lock on
a torrent of refugees will cross the border and create a humanitarian crisis from wagah to baramullah
a kindly mother india will rise up, eyes aflame... the time has come

[RajeshA]

Without wanting to make it an issue of preference between a U.S. in Pakistan or China in Pakistan, I would like to pose a thought.

America pays Pakistan just enough for Pakistan to stay above water, and keep breathing! An official economic growth of 2% in 2009 is almost a negative growth for a country whose official population growth was around 1.95%!

India is growing strongly these years, and some are expecting Indian GDP growth rate to surpass China's in 2012. We talk about the lost decade of the 80s, when we talk of trailing China because they started their reforms a decade or so earlier. Can something similar be happening between India and Pakistan. Whereas India hurtles up ahead, Pakistan remains stuck in the quicksand. We are steadily putting distance between India and Pakistan. The more distance we put the better.

Now this isn't just about economy! This is about time! A better economy would also allow India a better military preparedness too, to develop better weapon systems.

Now I am not saying I've made up my mind on the above theory, that we are getting time, if America keeps Pakistan "pinned down". I still am not sure whether considering our lack of any initiative against Pakistan, considering that we don't have a game in Pakistan at the moment, whether a Pakistan pinned down is not better, than a Pakistan failing. Pakistan's failure is just another word for Pakistan's transformation.

As we are not in driving seat of that transformation, I don't know whether it is more desirable than status quo, a Pakistan, that is "pinned down" by America.

So any ideas would be welcome, which help me make up my mind!

[Lalmohan]

uh-oh, i had a freudian slip, meant to say Amritsar and not Lahore
(see my cunning Indic mind is already reset to Maharaja Ranjit Singh's model for Punjab...)

[vera_k]

Pak Punjabis want manmade borders to be razed like Berlin wall

[ramana]

If Pakiban acquire nukes they will first use it on Islamabad to wipe out the impure. That is the trajectory they are on.

[Vikas]

Pak Punjabis want manmade borders to be razed like Berlin wall

Weren't it the Pakjabi's who were dying to throw Hindus out of La-whore, Gujrat and other Rawalpindi and squatter on their properties and businesses in 1947. Now that they are going down the drain hole, they want to raze the borders (created by Jinnah and his hoodlums) to find another watering hole when Purer ones come knocking to their doors.

[ramana]

Op-Ed in Pioneer

OPED | Wednesday, March 9, 2011 |

Deathly silence prevails in PakistanMarch 09, 2011 5:28:32 AM

Gwynne Dyer

While the people of Arab states are overthrowing dictators, Pakistan is sinking deeper into intolerant Islamic extremism. Emboldened by the meek response of the people to the assassinations of Salman Taseer and Shahbaz Bhatti, Islamist vigilantes will now become more brutal.

At least with a dictatorship, you know where you are — and if you know where you are, you may be able to find your way out. In Pakistan, it is not so simple.

While brave Arab protesters are overthrowing deeply entrenched autocratic regimes, often without even resorting to violence, Pakistan, a democratic country, is sinking into a sea of violence, intolerance and extremism. The world’s second-biggest Muslim country (185 million people) has effectively been silenced by ruthless Islamist fanatics who murder anyone who dares to defy them.

What the fanatics want, of course, is power, but the issue on which they have chosen to fight is Pakistan’s laws against blasphemy. They not only hunt down and kill people who fall afoul of these laws, should the courts see fit to free them. They have also begun killing anybody who publicly advocates changing the laws.

Salman Taseer, the governor of the Punjab, Pakistan’s richest and most populous Province, was murdered by his own bodyguard in January because he criticised the blasphemy laws and wanted to change them. He said that he would go on fighting them even if he was the last man standing — and in a very short time he was no longer standing. But one man still was: Shahbaz Bhatti.

Shahbaz Bhatti was shot down last Wednesday. The four men who ambushed his car and filled him with bullets left a note saying: “In your fight against Allah, you have become so bold that you act in favour of and support those who insult the Prophet... And now, with the grace of Allah, the warriors of Islam will pick you out one by one and send you to hell.”

Shahbaz Bhatti was not a rich and powerful man like Salman Taseer, nor even a major power in the ruling Pakistan People’s Party that they both belonged to. He was the only Christian member of the Cabinet, mainly as a token representative of the country’s three million Christians, but he had hardly any influence outside that community. Nevertheless, he refused to stop criticising the blasphemy laws even after Salman Taseer’s murder, so they killed him too.

That leaves only Sherry Rehman, the last woman standing. A flamboyant member of Parliament whose mere appearance enrages the beards, she has been a bold and relentless critic of the blasphemy laws — and since Salman Taseer’s murder she has lived in hiding, moving every few days. But she will not shut up until they shut her up.

And that’s it. The rest of the country’s political and cultural elite have gone silent, or pander openly to the fanatics and the bigots. The PPP was committed to changing the blasphemy laws only six months ago, but after Salman Taseer was killed President Asif Ali Zardari assured a gathering of Islamic dignitaries that he had no intention of reviewing the blasphemy laws. Although they are very bad laws.

In 1984 General Zia ul-Haq, the dictator who ruled Pakistan from 1977 to 1988, made it a criminal offence for members of the Ahmadi sect, now some five million strong, to claim that they were Muslims. In 1986 he instituted the death penalty for blasphemy against the Prophet Muhammad. No subsequent Government has dared to repeal these laws, which are widely used to victimise the Ahmadi and Christian religious minorities.

Ahmadis and Christians account for at most five per cent of Pakistan’s population, but almost half of the thousand people charged under this law since 1986 belonged to those communities. Most accusations were false, arising from disputes over land, but once made they could be a death sentence.

Higher courts generally dismissed blasphemy charges, recognising that they were a tactic commonly used against Christians and Ahmadis in local disputes over land, but 32 people who were freed by the courts were subsequently killed by Islamist vigilantes — as were two of the judges who freed them.

The current crisis arose when a Christian woman, Aasia Bibi, was sentenced to death last November, allegedly for blaspheming against the Prophet Muhammad. Pakistan’s liberals mobilised against the blasphemy law and discovered that they were an endangered species.

The murders of Salman Taseer and Shahbaz Bhatti were bad, but even worse was the way that the political class and the bulk of the mass media responded. A majority of the population fully supports the blasphemy law, making it very costly for politicians to act against it even if the fanatics don’t kill them. Political cowardice reigns supreme, and so Pakistan falls slowly under the thrall of the extremists.

Being a democracy is no help, it turns out, because democracy requires people to have the courage of their convictions. Very few educated Pakistanis believe that people should be executed because of a blasphemy charge arising out of some trivial village dispute, but they no longer dare to say so. Including the President.

“We will not be intimidated nor will we retreat,” said Mr Zardari on March 3, but he has already promised the beards that the blasphemy laws will not be touched. Nor is it very likely that the murderers of Salman Taseer or Shahbaz Bhatti will be tracked down and punished. You could get killed trying to do that.

-- Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist.

[RajeshA]

X-Posting from TSP Thread

ShyamD, You need to elaborate on the pressures and demands on TSPA which make it weak and overstretched. Not many know this aspect.

Sure. Its simple. They are deployed in the northern borders, fighting Af-Pak under cover, internal security duties in Balochistan plus foot troops in Kashmir and then they have to watch Indian border etc. You have your boss/financier (KSA et al) who want you to help them out against Iran or any internal unrest. You have TSP top guns who are part of the navy/air force in the middle east. With all these internal troubles and now possible Iran war looming, many TSPA troops are not even sitting in TSP, they are in the arab peninsula. MI6 walla's landing in Pindi are not talking about India border, they are talking about NWFP and Arabian peninsula issues - which just goes to back up what I am saying.

Then on top of that, if lets say a war between India and Pak take place, whats Kayani going to say to his boss/financier in KSA? Sheikhji can I bring back my troops, India is preparing for war. KSA is gonna say, listen birather, if you take your troops back to TSP, you are breaking our agreement and we can no longer provide aid for you as you are jeopardizing sunni islam, the land of the 2 holy mosques as Iran can give us a lot of trouble etc etc.

So KSA spy chief is landing in Delhi not for chai-biskoot but saying to us, lay off TSP, we'll give you good deals. US is nodding in the background saying yes, we want you to have peaaceee onlee so that the US can give TSPA a kick in the backside to do some operations chasing taliban up and down NWFP/FATA.

TSPA chief is saying come lets have some CBM, lay off us and we wont do anything. Now as Gaganji has rightly pointed out, as soon as all this lovey dovey CBM stuff is over and US pull out, TSPA regains its influence in Gandhaara. He's going to have a lot of abduls on his hands with AK47s and not a lot to do. These abduls could further take over parts of Pak and go gung ho for Islamabad. Or Kayani/ISI could choose to re-direct energies to Kaafir India.

So, in a few years time, ISI is going to be issuing orders to conduct a super major strike in India that will kick off a war. 26/11 failed to start the war that they soo badly wanted. So this time ISI has to think of something bigger. This is when the Jihadi with nukes scenario is going to come into play.

To summarise: Iran is not going to go nuklear until 2015 at the earliest. So, at some point US/GCC/Israel has to defang Iran or teach it a lesson. I see a safe Kashmir, India (apart from a few small terror strikes here or there) for the next few years until TSP get released from their Af-Pak duties and GCC duties.

What does India need to do?

The options are quite limited, India should get the US to stay in Afghanistan, as Kashmiri terrorist don't want to fight yindu soldiers but they are after the big power - the US (the dajjal/the higher caste kaafir). US doesn't have the economic appetite to stay the course in Afghanistan.

Next option is arm the Tajik's/old school Northern Alliance guys and open a significant front. Or you hope for the Iranians to get stronger and make the KSA even more scared of Iran. So, KSA forces TSP to deploy more assets in the GCC coupled with a drawn out Northern Alliance v Taleb war.

This might be the ideal situation where KSA is forced to economically support India (which is what our west asia ties are about) in return for keeping the Indo Pak border safe (which is also what we want). It buys time for us to clear out the militancy. Pak is overstretched and is fighting in the northern front, as well as having significant numbers deployed on the peninsula. India grows economically, safe border, room for options, our resources can be deployed to the navy etc etc.

This is just the skeleton of what I think will happen. There is still lots to talk about such as the PRC/Russia role in all of this, Iraq etc etc.

Just my 2 pence.

Published on Mar 21, 2011
Prince and parliamentarian: Such Gup - The Friday Times

Code: Select all

http://wwww.thefridaytimes.com/18032011/page32b.shtml

"As reported in the press, a delegation of khakis from Al-King’s realm came to visit our boys at their headquarters recently. There’s a neat little story that might serve as an illuminating backgrounder to the visit. A few years ago, in the time of Mush, a young parliamentarian from Pakistan had the opportunity to converse with a prince of Al-King’s realm, a scion of the great House, who had something to do with foreign affairs. Our parliamentarian and the prince struck up a friendship, and during the course of the conference they were both attending in a lovely European capital, had occasion to break bread and more importantly, imbibe some uplifting spirits. During the latter period, with both in merry mood, the parliamentarian asked the prince about their khaki formations and how many men under arms they had. The prince replied candidly that the Kingdom had learnt from Al-Bakistan’s experience – why build up a mighty fauj only to have it do coups d’etat against the royal House? And especially, went on Al-Prince, when there was always Al-Bakistan’s brotherly khaki machine to rely upon in an emergency. When the parliamentarian looked askance at Al-Prince, he pointed to the late unlamented Tyrant Terry Thomas’ highly efficient role in quelling a Palestinian rebellion against King Hussein of Jordan in the 1970s. Will our khakis be called upon once again to quell popular revolts in the Lands of Sand? This is an important question during these trying times for Middle Eastern tyrants with people’s power threatening once unshakeable thrones.""

^This confirms what ShyamD was stating in the previous page...

Now how about India making the KSA less dependent on Pakistan for its security?! If we want to chip away Pakistan 3.5 friends away from Pakistan, then one way is for India to make an offer to the KSA, that India would be willing to provide security to KSA and the Saudi Royal Family, thereby "taking over much of the burden" that America carries, as well substituting Pakistan, as Pakistan becomes a failure and less reliable due to its own Qadriization trend!

[A_Gupta]

Some more of Pakistan's mess is all Gandhi's fault:
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.as ... 2011_pg3_5

[chaanakya]

Now how about India making the KSA less dependent on Pakistan for its security?! If we want to chip away Pakistan 3.5 friends away from Pakistan, then one way is for India to make an offer to the KSA, that India would be willing to provide security to KSA and the Saudi Royal Family, thereby "taking over much of the burden" that America carries, as well substituting Pakistan, as Pakistan becomes a failure and less reliable due to its own Qadriization trend!

Why not create our own version of Blackwater from SSC folks and other JCO, NCO ranks and then underwrite them for deployment for such duties. They can work in tandem with our raa and eyebee. They are trained and disciplined. More training could be given.

[shiv]

Now how about India making the KSA less dependent on Pakistan for its security?! If we want to chip away Pakistan 3.5 friends away from Pakistan, then one way is for India to make an offer to the KSA, that India would be willing to provide security to KSA and the Saudi Royal Family, thereby "taking over much of the burden" that America carries, as well substituting Pakistan, as Pakistan becomes a failure and less reliable due to its own Qadriization trend!

This is one idea I have a lot of questions about.

KSA may want Muslims, which we can provide. But are we going to have a special Muslim only unit to serve in KSA? Will this be a special caste of soldiers who get paid KSA rates or will it be some parallel Indian army unit. How large will the unit have to be? I suspect anywhere from 2000 to 10,000. That is almost a separate "Sunni Muslim" division being created by secular India (**** the Hindus, Sikhs, Christians, Jains, Buddhists) solely to curry favor with the Saudis to keep Pakistan at bay.

Will we ask for our soldiers to be given special rights equivalent to rights in india? Or will we allow them to be slaves like Pakis? Pakis were used to suppress riots and a terrorist attack on the Kaaba. Since Pakis are Muslim dogs nobody gave a damn. Are we accepting that this sort of use of Indian troops is OK.

If we take 2000 (0r 5000) men between the ages of 18 and 35 and train them - they will have to retire from that KSA service after a few years when they still have a service life in front of them. These trained soldiers who have served the KSA Sultans will have to retire in India. That sounds like a dubious thing to me. Or else how are they going to be absorbed into the Indian forces?

Will the Saudis allow Hindu/Sikh troops. Men going into battle need their faith for morale. Can we have a special Saudi cadre who are asked to be secular and chuck idols/photos/prayers/tilaks etc to meet Saudi sensitivities?

Finally I suspect that whatever we offer the Pakis will undercut us with a bunch of yahoos whom they will only be too glad to send to KSA.

[RajeshA]

shiv saar,

I was hoping somebody would ask the question, about the obvious very large loophole in my suggestion!

That is why, I am in favor of a marriage/fusion between India and Bangladesh!

If one could accept that, one would see that we can cut every Gordion Knot in front of us. I wrote extensively on this in the ebook and the google group! You may be having access to both!

[shyamd]

Interesting. And I think this is the debate within our own setup. How are you going to provide security to the arab nations? You can't have kaafirs there again, that was tried and tested by the US and didnt go down too well. It still doesnt. So best option was for India to sign security agreements with Qatar and Oman, which fell short of having troops on the ground.

Mark my words: India will back the GCC in the next war. We'll be given a deal we can't refuse. But we better get our own defences ready because ISI is gonna come at us HARD! Yes that means using nukes on india. Next 4/5 years are going to be critical. Should we pre-empt this strike? How are we going to respond to a Jihadi nuke strike? ISI will have plausable deniability as usual. This is very different and a bigger game.

IMHO we seriously need to have a think about this scenario as this is what our National security setup is facing.

[brihaspati]

Paki soldiers to defend the Saudi monarch?!! Two immediate wonderful outcomes likely - first LeT and Taliban Saudi Arabia branch rapidly expands, and second, facing real attacks with serious likelihood of destruction - Pakis surrender enmasse. Which war have the Pakjabis won on foreign soldiers or against foreign armies outside the land they currently occupy?

From what I know of the racist attitudes and general assessment of Pakis in Saudi decision making circles, no large scale reliance on Paki contingents in crucial security sectors likely. In fact the KSA monarchy may find the idea of non-Muslim Indian army contingents as security - much better - because they will at least rest assured that such non-Muslim Indian army-personnel will not be easily coopted into their own domestic opposition and militancy that seeks to topple the monarchy. In essence they cannot have a contingent that can ideologically or culturally grow "roots" in their backyard. [Kind of same fear that drives the Congress in India to encourage Islamism or EJ-ism as much as possible].

Any foreign contingent that helps propping up the Saudis or GCC monarchies now - will be seen as the enemy by increasing sections of the populations of these regions.

Pakistani nukes [if they really exist!] falling into the overt Jihadi hands [handed over by the covert Jihadis - the PA and the ISI] will not be used first on India, but on Israel. They need to remove the more immediate and active opponent in their own backyard first. India is a hesitant enemy, and can probably also be fooled into submission without a nuke threat - by manipulating the ruling regime and rashtryia fear of/weakness for/dependence on Islamism. If they target India first leaving out Israel, they leave an enemy behind who can strike at them from the rear. So even if Pakjabis hand over the perhaps-nonexistent nukes to overt Jihadis, Pakjabi ambitions on India getting erased will have to wait.

[shiv]

Two Wiki links about Pakistan Saudi cooperation. Wiki cannot always be trusted but I post thins because I have read independent reports of the same facts and Wiki appears on top when I ask my unkal Googal

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan_% ... _relations

Pakistan maintains close military ties with Saudi Arabia, providing extensive support, arms and training for the Military of Saudi Arabia.[2] Pakistan has provided military aid and expertise to the kingdom for decades. It helped the Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) to build and pilot its first jet fighters in the 1960s. Pakistani Air Force (PAF) pilots flew RSAF Lightnings that repulsed a South Yemeni incursion into the kingdom’s southern border in 1969. In the 1970s and 1980s up to 15,000 Pakistani troops were stationed in the kingdom, some in a brigade combat force near the Israeli-Jordanian-Saudi border. The close ties continue between the militaries today.[2] Saudi Arabia has negotiated the purchase of Pakistani ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.[2] Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have had a deep strategic military relationship for decades and today have an unacknowledged nuclear partnership to provide the kingdom with a nuclear deterrent on short notice if ever needed.[5] It is also speculated that Saudi Arabia secretly funded Pakistan's nuclear programme and seeks to purchase atomic weapons from Pakistan to enable it to counteract possible threats from arsenals of the weapons of mass destruction possessed by Iran, Iraq and Israel.[6][7][8]

Economic and military ties are matched by close intelligence and security relations. During the 1980s, the Saudis financed more than half of the jihad to support the Afghan insurgency against the Soviet 40th Army in Afghanistan and worked more closely than anyone else with the Pakistani intelligence service, ISI, to support the war effort. Those ties continued in the 1990s when the Saudis and Pakistanis assisted the Taliban for a time.[5]

1979 terrorist attack on the Grand Mosque in Mecca
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Mosque_Seizure

With religious approval granted, Saudi forces launched frontal assaults on three of the main gates. The assaulting force was repulsed, and never even got close to breaking through the insurgents' defenses. Snipers continued to pick off soldiers who showed themselves. The mosque's public address system was used to broadcast the insurgents' message throughout the streets of Mecca. Confusion reigned at the field command, where several senior princes, the heads of the armed forces and military attachés from Pakistan gave advice. Pakistan Army infantry and armoured units deployed in Saudi Arabia were mobilized immediately. Pakistani SSG commandos were rushed to Mecca from Pakistan at the Saudi Government's request.
<snip>
The Commandant of the Pakistan SSG, Brigadier Tariq Mehmood, asked for permission to end the siege by flooding the mosque and then dropping a high-voltage electric cable to electrocute all present. This proposal was deemed unacceptable by Saudi authorities. They then used tanks to ram the doors of the mosque and Pakistani Commandos Black Storks then resorted to spraying the mosque with non-lethal gases in order to subdue the occupiers, and dropped grenades into the chambers through holes drilled in the mosque courtyard. The Pakistani commandos stormed the mosque, and used the least amount of force possible to avoid damage to the mosque. They killed most of the insurgents, and managed to force the surrender of the survivors.[20]

The battle had lasted more than two weeks, and had officially left "255 pilgrims, troops and fanatics" killed "another 560 injured ... although diplomats suggested the toll was higher." Military casualties were 127 dead and 451 injured.[21]

[shiv]

The Nizam of hyderabad had a buch of Arab dogs as his personal bodyguard. Foreigners are supposerd to be uncaring when a leader cracks down on his own population;

Here is news about Pakis troops in Bahrain 2011
http://criticalppp.com/archives/42347

Pakistanis serving in Bahrain’s security forces were reportedly involved in a crackdown on protestors in Manama in February in which seven people were killed and hundreds injured. Some injured protestors told the media that the police who beat them up spoke Urdu.

“They are uneducated, don’t speak Arabic and are difficult to communicate with,” said Maryam alKhawaja, the head of the Foreign Relations Office at the Bahrain Centre for Human Rights, about the Pakistanis serving in the anti-riot police.

“Mostly they are Baloch. One story I heard from a witness was that a Baloch refused to shoot a protestor at close range, despite orders from his superior, because he was saying Allah o Akbar. The high-ranking officer, who was Bahraini, took the Baloch’s weapons, beat him and then shot the protestor himself.

According to Reuters, opposition activists estimate that up to half of Bahrain’s approximately 20,000-strong national security apparatus is made up of Sunnis from Pakistan, Jordan and Yemen.

Recruiting security personnel from these countries and any moves to naturalise them is viewed by the opposition as a way to increase the Sunni demographic, given that at least 70 per cent of Bahrain’s population is Shia. Thousands protested in Manama earlier this week against any move to give citizenship to Sunnis serving in the military.

“We can’t tell whether there has been an increase in Pakistanis (in the security forces) since the government refuses to give us any numbers on political naturalisation,” said alKhwaja.

See the vid on that page
Violent response to Bahrain protest
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6RCBOC-MAM

[RamaY]

If GCC can take help from great Satan and share intelligence with yahudis for security, they should be fine with an Indic only india contingent that too with freedom to follow their faith and culture. ShyamD's post on lone temple in gelf is a nice example.

The undercurrent of current Gelf-quake is the unnecessary focus on Islam. Like that sultan (or some Shek) of KSA says, we should learn positive lessons from these NFZs and avoid negative lessons.

Shiv garu - thanks for that post

[brihaspati]

shiv ji,
There was a lot of hupla about Saddam promising WMD. We can believe about Paki promised extension of nuke shield to the Sauds. But given Paki proclivity to extract dole on blackmail and shifty promises, that means Sauds must have needed third party guarantees. Pakis may help train Saudi forces, (but then would they not ask this or get this from the Americans themselves?) or Saudis may invest in Pak military - but more likely the Sauds use the Pakis as a conduit for funding Taleb type activities.

I know that there has been a lot of discussion about the existence or capabilities of Paki nukes. My personal opinion, and I agree I am perhaps not in direct contact position to verify field reality in this case and others who are sure of Paki capabilities are in a position to do so incontrovertibly, is that the Paki nuke claims are more a bluff, maintained in collaboration with Pak's interested allies like USA or China. If at all it is these two countries which maintain a few Paki nukes to bolster the myth [ there are bound to be leaks by spies and implants and hence a show has to be maintained]. So, yes, USA or PRC as third parties may vouch for Paki nukes to the Sauds, but only that far.

It would be good to know the exact numbers and dispositions of Paki military component maintained on Saudi soil on a permanent basis. I am not sure that the Pakis would be maintained in significantly large numbers with arms and in military formations [not low level security and riot breakers] on Saudi soil on a very long term basis. Joint exercises are carried out, mercenaries are employed to a certain extent, but beyond that how far and how deep and how reliable are Pakis to the Sauds? [After Talebs is not the same as before Talebs and joint French commando - Pak raid to relieve "Kaaba". Post Taleb world should legitimately raise serious fears in the monarchy of the dangers of maintaining a large Paki unit close to heart.]

[shiv]

It would be good to know the exact numbers and dispositions of Paki military component maintained on Saudi soil on a permanent basis. I am not sure that the Pakis would be maintained in significantly large numbers with arms and in military formations [not low level security and riot breakers] on Saudi soil on a very long term basis. Joint exercises are carried out, mercenaries are employed to a certain extent, but beyond that how far and how deep and how reliable are Pakis to the Sauds? [After Talebs is not the same as before Talebs and joint French commando - Pak raid to relieve "Kaaba". Post Taleb world should legitimately raise serious fears in the monarchy of the dangers of maintaining a large Paki unit close to heart.]

I would broadly agree with all that you have said but I am unable to answer your question and can only state general impressions I have gained. My disclaimer about Wiki was because I definitely agree with your views on Paki nukes and am doubtful about the Wiki data on that.

Of all the Islamic nations Pakistan has the most well trained disciplined force. "Discipline" refers to the ability to follow orders without asking questions and that is a function of training. That means that if the Paki jernail tells his junior officer to lead a contingent of men and temporarily serve the KSA Sultan they will do exactly as told. And they will do it well. And will ask no questions.

In any oligarchy the "head that wears the crown" is restless unless he has reliable support and Pakistani troops are able to provide that support in ways that Arabs troops cannot. Pakistani troops can serve as the "core body guard" or "elite storm troopers" available "on call" for which the Paki army brass get paid off. They do not have to live in KSA except for trainers and advisors. Pakistan has ensured the militarization of so many men inside Pakistan that having a surfeit of armed and trained men is one of Pakistan's strengths.

Military trained Pakistanis are a body of people to whom security duties can be outsourced on demand much like any Indian BPO can take on more peaceable tasks. I am sure there are historic parallels - but am not familiar. Was Sparta like this?

[brihaspati]

shiv ji,
I agree to the fact of surplus military "product" from Pak finding a market among Sauds. My curiosity is about whether or not the Saudi elite would be free of the nagging doubts about Paki jarnails after the rise of the Taleban. Especially after their full fledged manifestation post AFG. Like say the case of bodyguards taking out their protectee because of some inagined infraction of ideological commitment. Given the apparent soft-pedalling with Israel, what if a Paki bodyguard or mercenary opens up his AK against a Saud?

This is why I think, apart from joint exercises, some intel collaboration, mercenaries through the Fauji Foundation recruiting surplus "labour", and a limited presence of small units - Paki military will be kept at many arms length.

I smell something fishy if a US agent needles the Saudi monarchy about how bad it will be if Pak fails - citing prospect of nukes falling into rogue hands, and therefore the need to "preserve" Pak. It seems that the nukes are the proverbial croc-kiddies, loudly vouched for by all the crooks in the hat - to extract benefits and blackmail others.

[shiv]

. My curiosity is about whether or not the Saudi elite would be free of the nagging doubts about Paki jarnails after the rise of the Taleban. Especially after their full fledged manifestation post AFG. Like say the case of bodyguards taking out their protectee because of some inagined infraction of ideological commitment. Given the apparent soft-pedalling with Israel, what if a Paki bodyguard or mercenary opens up his AK against a Saud?

How nice it would be to get a reliable answer to this question. because - Qadrification is a definite sign of loss of discipline and rebellion (as an aside - qadification is also an indicator of the superiority of Islam over military training).

In fact if it gets to/has got to a stage where KSA princes are suspicious, it means that Paki jernails themselves are in deep crap. Naturally they would be the last to reveal such a fear - no general can afford to admit that his men are untrustworthy. As with all large groups I suspect that the Pakistan army has "deep green zones' where loyalty is suspect and other zones where ye olde Britishe discipline prevails ahead of islam.

To me the interesting thing here is that the loss of discipline is only on ideological grounds - i.e that some signs of Islam must prevail over everything else. If I were an officer in such an army, I would ensure that my behavior and that of my immediate staff and family remained very visibly isiamic so that my mens' loyalty to me would not be shaken by any possible disloyalty to Islam they may see on my part. In effect the Pakistan army can expect to get slowly more Islamized and more Qadri like.