ramana wrote:ShyamD, You need to elaborate on the pressures and demands on TSPA which make it weak and overstretched. Not many know this aspect.
Sure. Its simple. They are deployed in the northern borders, fighting Af-Pak under cover, internal security duties in Balochistan plus foot troops in Kashmir and then they have to watch Indian border etc. You have your boss/financier (KSA et al) who want you to help them out against Iran or any internal unrest. You have TSP top guns who are part of the navy/air force in the middle east. With all these internal troubles and now possible Iran war looming, many TSPA troops are not even sitting in TSP, they are in the arab peninsula. MI6 walla's landing in Pindi are not talking about India border, they are talking about NWFP and Arabian peninsula issues - which just goes to back up what I am saying.
Then on top of that, if lets say a war between India and Pak take place, whats Kayani going to say to his boss/financier in KSA? Sheikhji can I bring back my troops, India is preparing for war. KSA is gonna say, listen birather, if you take your troops back to TSP, you are breaking our agreement and we can no longer provide aid for you as you are jeopardizing sunni islam, the land of the 2 holy mosques as Iran can give us a lot of trouble etc etc.
So KSA spy chief is landing in Delhi not for chai-biskoot but saying to us, lay off TSP, we'll give you good deals. US is nodding in the background saying yes, we want you to have peaaceee onlee so that the US can give TSPA a kick in the backside to do some operations chasing taliban up and down NWFP/FATA.
TSPA chief is saying come lets have some CBM, lay off us and we wont do anything. Now as Gaganji has rightly pointed out, as soon as all this lovey dovey CBM stuff is over and US pull out, TSPA regains its influence in Gandhaara. He's going to have a lot of abduls on his hands with AK47s and not a lot to do. These abduls could further take over parts of Pak and go gung ho for Islamabad. Or Kayani/ISI could choose to re-direct energies to Kaafir India.
So, in a few years time, ISI is going to be issuing orders to conduct a super major strike in India that will kick off a war. 26/11 failed to start the war that they soo badly wanted. So this time ISI has to think of something bigger. This is when the Jihadi with nukes scenario is going to come into play.
To summarise: Iran is not going to go nuklear until 2015 at the earliest. So, at some point US/GCC/Israel has to defang Iran or teach it a lesson. I see a safe Kashmir, India (apart from a few small terror strikes here or there) for the next few years until TSP get released from their Af-Pak duties and GCC duties.
What does India need to do?
The options are quite limited, India should get the US to stay in Afghanistan, as Kashmiri terrorist don't want to fight yindu soldiers but they are after the big power - the US (the dajjal/the higher caste kaafir). US doesn't have the economic appetite to stay the course in Afghanistan.
Next option is arm the Tajik's/old school Northern Alliance guys and open a significant front. Or you hope for the Iranians to get stronger and make the KSA even more scared of Iran. So, KSA forces TSP to deploy more assets in the GCC coupled with a drawn out Northern Alliance v Taleb war.
This might be the ideal situation where KSA is forced to economically support India (which is what our west asia ties are about) in return for keeping the Indo Pak border safe (which is also what we want). It buys time for us to clear out the militancy. Pak is overstretched and is fighting in the northern front, as well as having significant numbers deployed on the peninsula. India grows economically, safe border, room for options, our resources can be deployed to the navy etc etc.
This is just the skeleton of what I think will happen. There is still lots to talk about such as the PRC/Russia role in all of this, Iraq etc etc.
Just my 2 pence.
Milli Awami Party? is there a micro awami party, macro awami party, kilo.... etc?
This alarming news has been placed before the Min of Int and he has alerted Hubby about it but the latter has declared that there is nothing he can do, and “let those who know these people deal with them”. What a sorry state we’re in, with the government abdicating more and more of its powers.