India-US Strategic News and Discussion

[ramana]

It is a missed opportunity to strengthen the Indian lobby for sure. The USA is a transactional culture based on "what have you done for me lately?". Somewhat well illustrated by all the Senators and Congressmen who would toe the TSP line. Of course, you can take the other view and say all politicians can be bought, so maybe the idea is to buy off as many as needed using some of the famously advertised wealth in the Swiss bank accounts.

Issn't it time for the question to be asked in reverse direction? One cant claim continuity in govt and self absolve for the many stabs at India:

_ Propping TSP and PRC
- Providing F-16 delivery vehicles for TSP's PRC provided nuke weapons
- Providing cover for PRC proliferation to TSp even after Cold War was over in the 90s
- Deputising PRC as leader of Asia in late 1998
- Providing DCH to cover forward recce of targets in India and Mumbai in particular.
- Not handing over Rana who isn't yet convicted in US court

And Ambassadors acting like plenipotentiaries of Imperial state and talking to secessionist rebels

Roemer was roaming in Kashmir talking to secessionist leaders giving them legitimacy and expects to seel goods to India?

[ramana]

MRCA decision is revealing the MUTU types in media among others.

I would never classify Nitin Pai as a MUTU type, which is why I find his views on this subject perplexing to say the least. As much as I appreciate contrarian views.

Arnab,
Why did you have to quote my post to make Your point?
If you want to snipe at nitin why do you need my shoulder!

Dont do that in future.

[Cosmo_R]

Hope you're right. My impression (could be 99.44% wrong of course) is that it's being seen in some very influential quarters as a repudiation of closer military ties not by GoI but by the the Indian military.

May be, but what's wrong with that.

Nothing wrong with it. It is simply being seen as that. If that is the signal IAF wants to send, it's done it the right way.

[CRamS]

It is a missed opportunity to strengthen the Indian lobby for sure. The USA is a transactional culture based on "what have you done for me lately?". Somewhat well illustrated by all the Senators and Congressmen who would toe the TSP line. Of course, you can take the other view and say all politicians can be bought, so maybe the idea is to buy off as many as needed using some of the famously advertised wealth in the Swiss bank accounts.

Issn't it time for the question to be asked in reverse direction? One cant claim continuity in govt and self absolve for the many stabs at India:

_ Propping TSP and PRC
- Providing F-16 delivery vehicles for TSP's PRC provided nuke weapons
- Providing cover for PRC proliferation to TSp even after Cold War was over in the 90s
- Deputising PRC as leader of Asia in late 1998
- Providing DCH to cover forward recce of targets in India and Mumbai in particular.
- Not handing over Rana who isn't yet convicted in US court

And Ambassadors acting like plenipotentiaries of Imperial state and talking to secessionist rebels

Roemer was roaming in Kashirm tlalking to secssionist leaders giving them legitimacy and expects to seel goods to India?

BossGaru, excellent points. But do we have evidence though that it was because of all these reasons that the aircraft deal did not go through? If so, can this message be delivered?

[Vikas]

Why is non selection of F-teen such a big issue and is considered a Jhapad to Unkill but no one sheds a tear for Russians. Not even a word.
Are we not guilty of taking American feelings of not able to close a sales deal far too seriously. Why assign Chanikian motives once again to GoI.
We didn't like the plane, we rejected it
just like America has always rejected our need for dual-use technology. In the end it is all business and we bought what we like.
Rest all is Maya and spin by spinsters.

[Sanku]

I sort of agree, much as I would like to hope that the down select is a "message" -- it is not IMVHO, at least in geo-political terms. Its message and hence the "jhappad" is at a much more basic level. "You were trying to sell us a piece of steaming hot effuse? Get lost." -- a technical level of "you are not good enough" message.

We will have to wait for Vajpayee-ji to return (or some one like him) to administer the right sort of geo-pol medicine.

[KLNMurthy]

@shyamd^^^:

"How about relaxation of sanctions that are STILL on us [this is saying we need them] and 26/11.[this is also saying we need them]

The expectation is sooner or later the US will realise they need us." [GoI should articulate why they need us]

GOI can articulate but khan's realization has to come from within.

[Altair]

I am going to bring another angle here in this discussion. Any BRFites here doing currency/FOREX trading would know the USD is falling too steeply. If it breaks the 2008 levels of US Dollar index and if the debt ceiling is not changed before it exhausts, there is a much much bigger problem for US than a deal gone bad. America is in a situation where if they do not act in the next 2 months and get the dollar up, financial meltdown of 2008 will look like picnic.

[Sushupti]

The early information coming out from government is that the prime minister's office was not involved in the final decision to reject the two American bids, but that the Congress party leadership took the final call.

http://www.newsinsight.net/archivedebat ... recno=2136

[SaiK]

sheesh, both these teenage sensations from masa are near their end of life.. and being phased out by raptors and jsfs. They wanted a huge market like ours, but not without having 1 billion odd MUTUs guboing every time uncle comes for pleasure.

bhat, unkill didn't realize was the india rubber company makes all the allergy products, and low quality that is never up to unkill standards. so, unkill thinks all billions are alike and needs to be treated the same. unkill has no idea that our sdre labs can make a raptor at 1/10th of the cost, but only naat supported by mutuish babooze.

[ramana]

Why is non selection of F-teen such a big issue and is considered a Jhapad to Unkill but no one sheds a tear for Russians. Not even a word.
Are we not guilty of taking American feelings of not able to close a sales deal far too seriously. Why assign Chanikian motives once again to GoI.
We didn't like the plane, we rejected it
just like America has always rejected our need for dual-use technology. In the end it is all business and we bought what we like.
Rest all is Maya and spin by spinsters.

The have the 5th gen and Su30mki purchases. The a/c they sent is an orphan. Mig has merged with Su design bureau.

So don't cry for me Argentina.

[Johann]

The Obama Administration really hasn't put in the kind of work Bush put in to the relationship with India, even though he has been tougher on Pakistan.

He certainly can't expect as much.

[shyamd]

Generally speaking - relations with Democrats are never good as their officials are usually thinktankers and those types while republicans are heavily business influenced - usually linked to trade, infrstructure , oil etc. So it is to be expected relatiosn with Obama will be downbeat.

I aint worried though - things will be fine. There will be more contracts to come anyway.

[CRamS]

Johann:

Neither dems or reps have placed TSP terror against India at the same level as so called "global terror" (euphemism for Isalmic terror against whites and includes Israel, which is basically a European country). Unless this changes, India US relations is nothing more than hot gas resulting from the chemical breakdown of kidney beans (rajma) by the human anatomy.

[Cosmo_R]

The early information coming out from government is that the prime minister's office was not involved in the final decision to reject the two American bids, but that the Congress party leadership took the final call.

http://www.newsinsight.net/archivedebat ... recno=2136

Here's the key part:

Manmohan Singh's government must convincingly convey this before the pro-China lobby succeeds to make it appear as the triumph of Indian anti-Americanism.

This is what I was referring to when I mentioned ^^^ that there is gloom in the India lobby and glee in the China lobby.

But then as some on BFR have said: "So what?" . We'll just have to see 'what'

[vera_k]

Issn't it time for the question to be asked in reverse direction? One cant claim continuity in govt and self absolve for the many stabs at India:

Sure. But I keep going back to Kissinger's words on how the USA is fighting some of India's battles for it. True or not, that is the perception then, and I'm not sure what has been done to dispel or address it.

I wonder though if this decision simply isn't a consequence of needing to lull PRC while defenses are built up.

[Rudradev]

The early information coming out from government is that the prime minister's office was not involved in the final decision to reject the two American bids, but that the Congress party leadership took the final call.

http://www.newsinsight.net/archivedebat ... recno=2136

Heh heh. I wonder if this is just another way in which Mainos are putting the squeeze on MMS... first, corner him domestically on corruption by extending support to the Anna Hazare circus. Then, destroy his credibility with personal connections in GOTUS by sinking the F-16/F-18 as MMRCA candidates!

Maybe it's just another tack of pressure being applied to make MMS resign, so that boy wonder can take the kursi...

[shyamd]

MKB speaks on MRCA and Indo US relations

Whether the sudden exit of US Ambassador Timothy Roemer from his assignment in Delhi and the government’’s decision to reject the two American bids for the MMRCA [Multi-role combat aircraft] tender are related developments is a moot point.
Indeed, MMRCA was a lucrative contract which is worth 10 billion dollars at face value but worth manifold billions of dollars in the downstream through the coming 2 or 3 decades by way of additional supplies, spare parts, servicing, etc. More than the money, the Obama administration pitched hard as the business could generate dozens of thousands of jobs in the US. In strategic terms, MMRCA relates to the weapon system that IAF will use for next few decades and constituted a window of opportunity to gain a veritable American toe-hold in the Indian armed forces. Unsurprisingly, US saw this contract as a great window of opening to surge the military cooperation with India. Thus, a robust US campaign was afoot and Obama himself pitched in by writing to the prime minister. Senior state department officials routinely began singing panygerics - almost on weekly basis - lavishing praise on India as the rising star on the planet and as the cynosure of all good things to happen to mankind. Roemer himself openly reminded the Indian leadership last month that securing the MMRCA would do a world of good to US-India global strategic partnership (read containment of China).
Frankly, the Americans themselves are to be blamed for building up this sort of completely unwarranted hype, which makes on feel red on the face with embarrassment. MMRCA is a bloody serious affair for the Indians and the IAF and Delhi cannot go emotional about it when arriving at a decision. But then, it is a characteristic feature of US (and Israeli) public diplomacy to keep puffing up hot air balloons and foisting then above the playground and make the spectators feel they are the real thing. Whereas, any close observer of the Indian policies - unless one were hopelessly marooned at the extreme wing of the ideological left or the ideologically vacuous Indian right - would have estimated all along that at the end of the day, Delhi would have no option but to assess the operational and strategic needs of its air force with clinical detachment.
Things can’t be otherwise so long as A K Antony holds the portfolio of Raksha Mantri. No matter what you may say about the ‘Mallu mafia’ in Delhi, at the end of the day, you need to admit this much that their finger nails have remained clean after all their dealings with public property. And, mind you, these are testy times when you trust just about no one in the dark. To put MMRCA matters in perspective, Antony’s refusal to be entrapped into making political commitments that he couldn’t possibly fulfil prompted him to have the US-India strategic dialogue scheduled originally for mid-April to be scuttled although Hillary Clinton and Robert Gates were all set to travel to Delhi. We all knew at that time that something was brewing in Antony’s Gandhian mind although he is a taciturn man by nature and unassuming to the point of being self-effacing. In fact, that was the first indication that Antony’s mind was working hard about judging which MMRCA offer - American, European, French, Russian, etc. - might suit India’s defence needs optimally in the long-term, and that the choice might just not necessarily fall on the two high-profile American bids merely stemming out of political compulsions.
Equally, some nasty comments by a clutch of notoriously pro-American Delhi-based commentators at around that same time gave the plot away and made one suspect that the US embassy in Delhi might be working overtime about Antony’s ‘obduracy’. Nonetheless, the proof lay in the eating of the pudding, as they say, and one kept one’s fingers crossed.
Objectively speaking, however, the Americans have been vastly exaggerating the dimensions of the so-called US-India ‘golabl’ strategic partnership - US’s ‘indispensable’ partnership of the 21st century, et al - in an attempt to hustle the Indian opinion, which is usually ill-informed, excitable and highly prone to sentimentality and moodiness. This has been a classic situation where the other guy insists on saying to whoever is listening that you are his best pal in town and this is the only game in town and you are hard-pressed to deny that is not quite the case as is being made out and that he is only one among other guys you’d like to waltz with in real life.
The danger lies in upping the threshold of hype in any relationship. When a reality check ensues, you slide into depression. Last week, a former Indian ambassador to the US claimed that it would be a ‘breach of faith’ if India didn’t facilitate nuclear business for the US. Really? He spoke as if he never heard of Fukoshima. What if Antony came to a sober conclusion that IAF needs something far better than what is on offer from the Americans? Will that, too, become a matter of ‘breach of faith’? Whose ‘faith’ are we talking about anyway? The country’s - or some moonlighting individual’s? The problem is that too many vested interests have today developed over the gravy train of US-India partnership. And these fat cats are contributing to an unnatural build-up of expectations and are arrogating the right to set the tempo of the US-India ties that are so crucial to the country’s long-term interests.
The Indian policies in the recent months ample bear out that US-India partnership is not the be-all and end-all of Delhi’s world view. The patient efforts to build content into ties with Iran (which is never an easy thing to deal with), the nuanced stance on Libya, the constructive engagement of China’s Hu Jintao by prime minister Manmohan Singh on the sidelines of the BRICS, the far-reaching India-Kazakh strategic ties, the commendable Mohali overture to Pakistan, Delhi’s stubborn refusal to be drawn into the US-Pakistan tensions or to fall into the American trap of transfroming Afghanistan into an India-Pakistan turf war, an independent line on Sri Lanka keeping the specific Indian priorities in view - all these are to be noted carefully. Why, can’t Washington but notice that Delhi is not even doing any drum beating that an obscure American-Tibetan is bringing the torch of democracy to Dharamsala from across the Atlantic apparently of his own voition!

[krisna]

It is mentioned that IAF did extensive evaluations of the 6 a/c and forwarded 2 euro a/c based on its technical evaluations. IAF did what they do the best. They do not base their decisions on geopolitical considerations. This is not their field.
How come all are saying that GOI has made a political decision- based on so so factors and rejected uncle.

So far as of today, politically GOI has not done anything in favor or against the uncle a/c.
why are some attributing it to MMS and some to non MMS groups....when they have not been involved in selection of 2 a/c.

May be I have missed something in the last few days.

[Airavat]

United States has a national interest in Indian strategic autonomy

one important consequence of India's geopolitical ascent is the ballast it provides to an Asian order not subject to China's tutelage.

Beyond the United States, India's growing set of partnerships are almost entirely with states along the Indo-Pacific littoral that fear the consequences of overweening Chinese power and seek to balance it.

the United States historically has not been what Indians would call a reliable supplier of military hardware. To the contrary: It has sanctioned India repeatedly, cutting off sales of military platforms, technologies, and spare parts over several different periods. The United States has also provided advanced weaponry to India's key rivals (Pakistan since 1954, China during the 1980s).

[abhishek_sharma]

Top 10 examples of the most unrealistic expectations in contemporary U.S. foreign policy.

[ramana]

So list top 10 things uncle can do to India due to this loss?

[ramana]

1 Prop up TSP. Already underway.
2. Increase trade with PRC. Already underway and will lead to QE3
3. Increase Kashmir tensions. Roemer was doing that already.
4. Demand India not work in Afghanistan. Already done.
5. increase non tariff barriers to Indian services providers. On and off US President makes statements on this account.

All are already underway or will be self goals.

[abhishek_sharma]

6. Deport some Indian students from US (will happen very soon)
7. Impede better telecom security (already done)
8. Encourage Bhutan, Bangladesh, Burma and Sri Lanka to have more "independent" foreign policy (already LeT is in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh is, well, Bangladesh, ityadi).

[Hari Seldon]

^^^More terrifyingly...

9. Announce a flurry of travel advisories for westerners, especially Americans, from visiting here on business or pleasure owing to the 'rapidly deteriorating' security situation arising from 'persistent tensions' with Pakistan over 'disputed Kashmir'.

10. A 400% rise in 'private donations' to EJ orgs allo ver the country.

11. A 400% rise in adverse mentions of India in a bevy of orgs with 'International' appended to them such as Amnesty, Tranaprency, liberty, religious freedom index etc etc.

12. USTR (US special traderep) dropping hint-bombs at re-evaluating India's mechandize and service exports to the khanate. Esp investigate H1 and L1 visa 'abuse' (already underway).

etc etc.

[Arjun]

^ will be interesting to enumerate the top 10 sources of leverage India has over the US. Can we even get to 10 ?

[Raja Bose]

We didn't select Unkil's planes for MMRCA - planes we would be paying our own hard-earned top dollar for - unlike the beggars from poo-stan. And SDREs here are getting their lungis in a twist wondering what Unkil will do to them? Most puzzling.

[UBanerjee]

do nothing. Instead focus on transport/p-8/howitzer type sales.

more or less.

[shiv]

Now I know why Vajpayee wore a dhoti. He would have needed that to shiver after the Pokhran 2 decision. I mean we are so casual about calling leaders weak and spineless - and I am amazed and a little embarrassed at the dhoti shivering that is happening here. Is this how scared and anxious my countrymen are?

[abhishek_sharma]

It is not shivering per se. Given the response from US, it is fair to assume that there had a sense of entitlement, and they are unhappy. Whether we should shiver or not is a different question.

[shiv]

It is not shivering per se. Given the response from US, it is fair to assume that there had a sense of entitlement, and they are unhappy. Whether we should shiver or not is a different question.

Abhishekji - that news item says "Experts see cloud over indo-US ties". if anyone chooses to dhoti shiver after reading that it only reinforces my sadness at the extreme fear of the US that Indians display.

There is nothing to laugh at either Musharraf or MMS if the latter was intimidated by US words. We are a people who scare easy.

[JE Menon]

Plus, if our relationship with the US is unimportant to the extent that we should express such satisfaction at the American products being rejected (and not the Russian one, for instance), why are we concerned about negative consequences? Doc is right, I am quite surprised by the amount of apprehension being displayed...

On the other hand, I suppose it demonstrates that despite the occasional bouts of bravado about thumbing our noses at Uncle Sham, we do have a fine understanding of power at an individual level. That's always helpful. Collectively, it makes the hard decisions easier

[JE Menon]

On the third hand, seriously, guys there is nothing to worry about. Sooner or later, Uncle will get another deal, also in the billions and we will have reports saying "India compensates for not giving fighter deal to US" - both from India and the US ... Our relationship is already past the point where such occasional niggles will affect its fundamental properties. Don't forget, the American politicians too, like ours, have to garner votes every now and then... They have to show their constituencies they tried, and complained when they failed. Do you seriously think that anyone has particular love for a "Boeing" or a "Lockheed" that's not lubricated with cash or kind? Life will go on, and go on fairly smoothly.

[Cosmo_R]

Top thing that US could do to screw India:

Give India a free hand to retaliate against Pakistan after the next terror attack. No calls for 'restraint, no flying diplo visits, no advisory, no pressure.

Any thoughts?

[shiv]

Top thing that US could do to screw India:

Give India a free hand to retaliate against Pakistan after the next terror attack. No calls for 'restraint, no flying diplo visits, no advisory, no pressure.

Any thoughts?

Yes sir. Less than flattering piskological thoughts I am afraid.

Consider the following statement:

Give India a free hand

It assumes that the US is already holding India's hand and restraining it. This is the same assumption that causes dhoti shivering.

The assumption does not take into consideration the idea that India may not be retaliating against Pakistan because we are really cowards and we are imagining that the US is holding us back because we are too ashamed to admit that we are the original natural cowards as Ayub Khan realised. We are giving that (US is holding us bacK) as an excuse. Either way it is inability to face up to the idea that we have to do things for ourselves on our own and instead claiming that someone else or something else is stopping us and "blaming extraneous factors". It's all about fearing extraneous factors. The mentality of a person who thinks he is being led and therefore need not and will not consider doing things on his own for himself.

The US can do some things to us. There are other things that it cannot do. It is up to us to decide what we do based not only on what the US might do but a whole lot of other factors. When we ignore other factors and give the US more weight and influence than anything else - it is needless and absurd fear of the US - IOW dhoti shivering of the sort that I am seeing in the media and BRF,.

[ramana]

Expect some pontification on MND and Nuke matters like FMCO etc.

This is based on the US assumption of pro-quid quo for the IUCNA as seen by US diplomats statements. Since its nuke related in their minds the response will be in that area.

If so Indian response has to be in that specific area and not another obtuse area.

Atleast till next US elections expect some chill.
Might be good as I don't see much benefit of so called warmth!

[Manny]

^^^More terrifyingly...



10. A 400% rise in 'private donations' to EJ orgs allo ver the country.

11. A 400% rise in adverse mentions of India in a bevy of orgs with 'International' appended to them such as Amnesty, Tranaprency, liberty, religious freedom index etc etc.


etc etc.

Those two would be like rewarding the evangelical/Mallu Talibanies with the Sonia gang in N.Delhi. They would only welcome such a thing.

[Manny]

Top thing that US could do to screw India:

Give India a free hand to retaliate against Pakistan after the next terror attack. No calls for 'restraint, no flying diplo visits, no advisory, no pressure.

Any thoughts?

Yes sir. Less than flattering piskological thoughts I am afraid.

Consider the following statement:

Give India a free hand

It assumes that the US is already holding India's hand and restraining it. This is the same assumption that causes dhoti shivering.

The assumption does not take into consideration the idea that India may not be retaliating against Pakistan because we are really cowards and we are imagining that the US is holding us back because we are too ashamed to admit that we are the original natural cowards as Ayub Khan realised.

I concur. The lefti cowards of India want to raise their tiny puny malnourished poverty driven (due to socialism) hands in the air and want to shout "imperialists" holding us back excuse. this has gone on for 60 years and I was beginning to believe this was behind us..but it seems, these tiny puny hands have come back with a vengeance in the Sonia Maino congressie camp and waving it again.

[Manny]

Top thing that US could do to screw India:

Give India a free hand to retaliate against Pakistan after the next terror attack. No calls for 'restraint, no flying diplo visits, no advisory, no pressure.

Any thoughts?

Absolutely. Now, these chicken little cowards would actually have to make a decision. And they would surrender by making it sound like a victory of peace and non violence.

Nothing is more cowardice than singing "non violence" and "peace" when the other guy is holding a gun to your head.

[Cosmo_R]

@Shiv^^^: I was wondering the same (if I have understood you correctly): What if Hillary says; "Go for it"..? we don't have an excuse then not to act.

I would not say 'cowardice' would come in the way (though it well might) of retaliation. I would liken it more to the fear of getting into a knife fight in an alley on your way to fighting in the ring with PRC.

Anyway, just a thought. I agree we are caught up in the fear of what unkil might do when it could choose to just wash its hands off Af-Pak, station a Ohio class SSBN off Pakistan as warning against future Faisal Shazads and let events take their course.

BTW, FWIW, I am coming around to believing (incoming emails) that it's not the rejection of the planes that is causing heartburn in DC but the postponement of the strategic dialogue talks scheduled for April. The reason then given was "regional elections". However, it is now seen as GoI knowing about the down select but saying it did not to preempt pressure and essentially blindsiding Hillary and the WH.

Anyway, who really knows?