Devise military solutions to the Somali piracy irritant

[Klaus]

I would advocate increasing the number of multi-role bases in the IOR, to achieve the dual objectives of IOR consolidation and combating piracy. The IOR is a unique region and India's military also has a history of using multi-role platforms, so India's IOR consolidation also should follow a "two birds with one stone" approach.

In line with this, it would be advisable for India to base significant naval assets off the northern coast of Tanzania and on constant north-south patrol along the Kenyan coastline. These maritime assets, both surface and submerged, would provide security and safe passage for Indian and other bulk carriers, which would be transiting to and from the Indian mainland to the Mozambique straits, carrying ore from Malawi, Namibia and other lands.

Another large flotilla, based at the Dahlak archipelago would be providing the same transit passage to shipping on the Red Sea, west of the Bab-el-Mandeb. To the east of this chokepoint (Bab el-Mandeb straits), a series of Indian UAV's, P-8I's and other surveillance aircraft based off Socotra would be monitoring all shipping. Dahlak archipelago would feature a listening post and ground stationed radars which would effectively complete the picture by interfacing with other listening posts in Seychelles and Mauritius.

Thus no single location has got a saturation of different types of military assets, it presents a more consolidated and much vaster target for hostile nations. For India, the communication and response between these three points would be quick enough to combat terrorism and any piracy concerns. None of these base assets would even require the use of our CBG's, which are for front end war-fighting roles with India's prime adversaries.

[RajeshA]

These maritime assets, both surface and submerged, would provide security and safe passage for Indian and other bulk carriers, which would be transiting to and from the Indian mainland to the Mozambique straits, carrying ore from Malawi, Namibia and other lands.

Would we get paid for it or would it be out of the goodness of our hearts?

[Bharath.Subramanyam]

If you are planning for any involvement in Somalia, do also think of this. moreover, as has already been pointed out, there can very well be interests within India linking transnational criminal networks across the Arabian sea. It will be the same source that is keen on business ties with Pak and rather vicariously with that of the Gulf region.

Can we have a country-wise breakup of pirate capture of ships? As well as if possible, ownership? It seems that the target country/ownership is rather skewed. This could give some important clues as to who have already come to an understanding with the pirates, as well as international political considerations that work behind the somali pirates.

My assessment is that the piracy is fully backed by the two Islamic militancy groups that have virtually divided up the country into a north-south division. There are also indications that they have come to a certain agreement about sharing control, and for both piracy is a source of income and resources. Further, any international force backing these two will also have interest in keeping the region destabilized to choke off economic gains of its rivals who have a stake in the normal shipping through the sea-lanes.

It maybe worthwhile to consider the Saudi-Iranian rivalry as part of the bigger picture in this domain.

A person (who is known in BRF) who has very good contacts with security people told me few months back that when many phone calls of the Somali pirates when intercepted, the pirates are having conversations with Karachi. He said it seems to be tactic to get the Panda Navy in the Indian Ocean to 'safe guard' the sea lanes & commercial shipping.

[Klaus]

Would we get paid for it or would it be out of the goodness of our hearts?

Charity has always begun at home saar. I have left out the economic aspects deliberately.

[RajeshA]

The Pakistani-Somali Nexus

A person (who is known in BRF) who has very good contacts with security people told me few months back that when many phone calls of the Somali pirates when intercepted, the pirates are having conversations with Karachi. He said it seems to be tactic to get the Panda Navy in the Indian Ocean to 'safe guard' the sea lanes & commercial shipping.

Thank you for the confirmation. Till now, it was simply an assumption on my part.

There is a Pakistani-Somali Nexus, and the MV Suez drama was just one more confirmation of it. Any strategy India adopts has to be cognizant of this dangerous nexus, and the possibility that any military involvement in Somalia can also mean that Indians would be bled by the Pakistanis in the Horn of Africa.

[RajeshA]

The Pakistani-Somali Nexus

Published on Sep 01, 2009
Pakistani nationals may be training Somali pirates: Times Now

There are growing concerns about possible links between pirates and terrorist groups after authorities confirmed the first case of alleged Pakistani involvement with Somalian pirates.

Investigations into the hijacking of a Russian warship in April by Somali pirates show that Pakistani nationals played an important role in the hijack. 12 Pakistanis had been apprehended along with the Somali pirates. Pakistan has so far not launched a probe into the Russian allegations and claimed that 12 men were fishermen.

Authorities have confirmed the first case of alleged Pakistani involvement with Somali pirates in a revelation that has raised concerns about a possible link between piracy and suspected terrorist groups.

Published on Sep 01, 2009
Somali pirates using Pakistani arms: Indian Navy: India Today

Pakistan has found Somali sea pirates as the new tools in its covert war against India, the Indian Navy confirmed on Tuesday.

From jihad factories in Pakistan to pirate terror off the Gulf of Aden, Pakistan's hidden war against India has been crossing the seas.

There have been numerous attacks by Somali pirates on merchant ships with Indian crew on board. And, the Navy destroyer - INS Mysore - reported the Pakistani link to Somali pirates.

Nine months ago, during action against pirate ship Salahuddin, the Indian Navy patrol ships found material evidence of Pakistan's sinister plot.

Most of the weapons used by the Somali brigands bore the stamp of Pakistani ordnance factories. The rocket-propelled grenade launcher and the rifles seized from the boat were all made-in-Pakistan. Even the magazines recovered had Pak ordnance factory tags.

The revelation has raised serious concerns about a possible link between the sea pirates and the suspected terrorist groups.

Published on Jan 31, 2011
Somali pirates linked to Pakistani terror groups?: PTI

Security agencies are probing any possible link between Somalian pirates and Pakistan-based terror groups. Somalian pirates were now operating eastwards from their country and moving towards India and posed a threat to all merchant vessels passing through the high seas between India and the Maldives, Indian Coast Guard Director General Vice Admiral Anil Chopra said in New Delhi.
"When piracy is happening so close to India, there would be speculation about any such linkages. Intelligence agencies are investigating all those captured to establish if there is any connection between them," he said

[brihaspati]

The countrywise and ownership-wise breakup of target shipping should illustrate a lot. If possible this data should be gathered.

Marriage is a tempting proposition, especially given that some of our illustrious parents back home have contributed their own into skewing the sex-ratio. A Latin American hero made it a rule after his revolution that the two major ethnic groups have to marry across the ethnic divide - by law. But a more reliable strategy, and a classic one - employed always by powerful transregional forces - is two pronged.

Look for potential "client" "kings", especially those who are weaker and being pushed out in local competition. Propose alliance against their competitors, and use their native connections for legitimacy of subsequent presence. Simultaneously, hold out the threat of extinction [and prove it by action on ground as illustration] to those that will not comply, while promising and delivering on "development".

Ruthlessly exterminate those pirates not willing to give up piracy, and enforce this in alliance with the client "kings". If they give up bring them into gainful and a much better or secure lifestyle.

For Somalia, Iran is playing a role. I think I was again the sole person who suggested that the so-called Shia-Sunni tussle need not detract Iranian foreign policy for what they see as their larger target. This was my suggestion in the context of AFG, and Iranians having not much problem in supporting Talebs. They need to isolate and tie-down the Saudis and what they see as Saudi's external backers. They have a well-entrenched and obvious obsession with pushing their reach across the Gulf to restrict the Saudis and Americans. Somalia would be a natural outpost to complete their encirclement of the Arabian peninsula. The route exists already up through Egypt and towards North Africa. So even if Somalia is Sunni dominated, Iran can and does have a stake in destabilizing it. Both Iran and Saudis would compete to have control over the pie, and Saudis seem to have no problem in maintaining the "charitable" efforts in Somalia, while the arms trail appears to run around in a circle around the peninsula, with Iran, Pakistan, Dubai based ghotala[possible link out to Indian west coast], Somalia, Egypt [link out to Libya and North Africa and sub-Saharan Islamist trail] Gaza, Turkey, back to Iran.

One of the things that Indian "peaceniks" should keep in mind is that Pak is possibly being used by [and using] PRC to bolster its presence in the western Arabian sea. Pakistan may also see this as part of a two-term necessary strategy.

In the short term, it needs to weaken American reach into its own territory, and creating a distraction and choke on western shipping is a means of pushing back US pressure and a bargaining point. Longer term, the Paki ghazwa-e-hind salivators may also see it as part of their masturbation fantasies - that blocking off the Red-Sea corridor pre-empts Indian expansion into the Horn and attractiveness of Indian navy/influence for KSA and Gulf powers. If nothing else they can bring in China to put greater pressure on USA and KSA both.

But it looks like both KSA and Iran - each backed by their sponsors, are trying to enter the others chakrabyuha and thinking that they can disrupt the other's circle from inside. India can upset and break up this overlapping chakrabyuha. Only India can play the balancing act. But for this it has to repeat what Brit imperialists managed in the IOR. Have to take initiative in coercing/"winning hearts" (in many cases synonymous) of the littoral spoilers.

[Prem]

Somalia is right initial canadidate to be blessed with Indian lebensraum. Remove the criminals, fasadi elements( 90% of locals) there and reinvigorte the country by flooding it with Indian people. May be some one can calculate the cost , investment and return on this project and do mini Australia/ Canada or Massa as test case. Thier link with Poaks make them legitimate target of elimination, sort of parallel with historical Dahiresque equation .
( Hope , now few People realize how important is to accumulate wealth for executing perspective projects like these. IMHO< 10-20 Billion over 5 years will buy us whole Somalialand )

[RajeshA]

Somali Piracy: Looking for Solutions

The countrywise and ownership-wise breakup of target shipping should illustrate a lot. If possible this data should be gathered.

Marriage is a tempting proposition, especially given that some of our illustrious parents back home have contributed their own into skewing the sex-ratio. A Latin American hero made it a rule after his revolution that the two major ethnic groups have to marry across the ethnic divide - by law.

Marriage with Somalis can be given institutional support from the Indian Military deployed there, by all the Indian firms who set up shop there. The cost of the wedding, cost of mehr, living quarters, etc. can be picked up them. In fact marriage besides a job can act as a strong incentive to attract Indian workers to move to Somalia.

One has to sell some good proposition to the Indians, if one wants to get 2-3 million Indians up there.

But a more reliable strategy, and a classic one - employed always by powerful transregional forces - is two pronged.

Look for potential "client" "kings", especially those who are weaker and being pushed out in local competition. Propose alliance against their competitors, and use their native connections for legitimacy of subsequent presence.

Somalia is a land with strong clans and clan chiefs and a very weak government, not really able to implement pretty much any policy. Each sub-clan looks after its own interests. There are very few institutions really in the hand of the governments.

An alternative power center is the warlords, who have many men under arms, but these are more like gangster bosses involved in crime, smuggling, piracy, etc

So it will be difficult to find a "client king" formidable enough that all the sundry would accept him as a rightful ruler.

Today it will be difficult to find a warlord responsible for everything.

Simultaneously, hold out the threat of extinction [and prove it by action on ground as illustration] to those that will not comply, while promising and delivering on "development".

Ruthlessly exterminate those pirates not willing to give up piracy, and enforce this in alliance with the client "kings". If they give up bring them into gainful and a much better or secure lifestyle.

brihaspati garu,

Another perspective: Piracy acts as a shield around Somalia, which does not allow other powers to intrude into Somalia and take its minerals. No country wants to invest in Somalia in mining, oil extractions, etc. because of the curse of piracy. So if India can find the right frequency we may be able to penetrate these shields, and enter and exit at our pleasure, making use of Somalia's hidden treasures and its strategic location, whereas other countries remain dissuaded due to piracy. This gives us monopoly. Piracy can ensure that we get that monopolistic position. {Those into science-fiction would understand the analogy with the shields.}

So piracy can offer us a level of protection from competition, giving us exclusive use of Somalia.

In that case, why would we want to do away with piracy completely. The trick is to find the right frequency to penetrate the shields, to find a way to enter an entente with the Somali pirates and society.

[RajeshA]

Somali Piracy: Looking for Solutions

Somalia is right initial canadidate to be blessed with Indian lebensraum.

I agree, there is an opportunity.

Remove the criminals elements( 90% of locals) there and reinvigorte the country by flooding it with Indian people. May be some one can calculate the cost , investment and return on this project and do mini Australia/ Canada or Massa as test case. Thier link with Poaks make them legitimate target of elimination, sort of parallel with historical Dahiresque equation .
( Hope , now few People realize how important is to accumulate wealth for executing perspective projects like these. IMHO< 10-20 Billion over 5 years will buy us whole Somalialand )

I don't think we need to get into a war with them, or start doing any elimination for that purpose.

Somalis are not traditionally Indian enemies, and have not really done any harm to us. There isn't really any need for hostilities between us and the Somali people. We should simply detoxify them and assimilate them.

[shiv]

The only countries, where I would recommend the strategy of large-scale marriages is where we have a definite advantage in wealth differential.

Where the wealth-differential is not there, there marriages can take place only through individual efforts and as such cannot become a large-scale phenomenon which is required to make a big demographic impact in the target land. Also to make demographic impact, the current population of the target land cannot be overly big, for otherwise the challenge becomes too big.

Rajesh - let me be frank with you. I only get irritated with these "change society" ideas of yours because the most kind words I can use for them is "nonsense".

There is a simple reason for this. No matter how good and advanced your idea may be it cannot be implemented unless you first convince Indians and Somalis (or Pakistanis) that it is desirable. The next step would be to get the marriages going and even if you were to have a "pilot project" of just 250,000 marriages - it would take years. After that those couples will have to produce a new society that will start making a difference in 30 years and start having major effects only in 50 years when the children born of those marriages reach positions of influence. If at all. When it comes to ideas about marriage and wealth you are ignoring how societies have behaved for millennia.

Rajeshji - you will be dead long before the fruits of your thinking can be proven to be right or wrong. I don't know whether you want to be known as a radical thinker who came up with brilliant ideas that are being written by you now but their value will be noticed after 200 or 300 years and you will be recognized then, But right now there is nothing in these ideas that appears practicable. You are dumping revolutionary "Let us change society" idea with no information of how you will bring about that revolution.

If you are unable to flesh out how you will implement your revolutionary ideas and merely throw a large number of ideas ideas in the air hoping that some might take root - you are merely filling up forum space that makes it easier to ignore your messages and read what others have to say. You are not doing yourself do anyone else a favor. Initially it is amusing and fresh to see new ideas.But as they get profuse and impractical and laced with rhetorical argument - it only gets boring and easier to ignore. Pardon me for being frank.

[brihaspati]

RajesA ji,
I specifically mentioned that the ideal client king is a "weaker" one - one who is on the point of being pushed out of the race. So many weak "bosses" are a good proposition for what I am suggesting. The Romans did it with the Brits [or wherever they nosed in - for example Cleopatra was the "exiled" weaker one, or the the first client tribal chiefs in Brit-land, etc], and the Brits did it with Indians.

Piracy cannot be tolerated. If you maintain it, sooner or later it will get out of hand and undermine your own overall control. Piracy is about "anti-control" - and every state power that set out using them have had to turn against them after a certain stage. England started its naval career by piracy and had to literally gun them down afterwards, and not many perhaps know that even the Americans used piracy at first - the venerable scientist diplomat uncle Ben Franklin being allegedly an enthusiast too, but even the Americans ultimately had to move against pirates.

One branch in my family maintained 100 "dacait-sardars", and gave them land and villages to settle with their "retinue". Condition was that the chiefs would have to be in constant attendance at the main seat of power, and that they would be virtual hostages for the "good behaviour" of their family and retinue within the "domains". My suspicion is that they were used for less than good behaviour "outside" the domains. I have seen a "junior", then estimated at over 90, and chatted with him, so the story did bear out. He said one of his uncles was executed because he had raided a village within the "domains" out of "old habit", and the rest of the hundred were made to watch it as a lesson. It is indeed a lesson well worth remembering if we start out to engage the Somali pirates.

[Prem]

Chinese pattern in Tibbet can be copied with little more"active" script to impose the military solution and solve the problem for good. Provide good amount of finnancial and small. medium arms incentive to one chosen Kabila and let them prepare the ground for planiting new seeds.

[brihaspati]

Piracy is a kind of early uncontrolled capitalist private enterprise. There is an inherent element of individualism and refusal to submit to coordinated, nation-oriented organized discipline. It cannot be controlled for "higher purposes" and sooner or later comes in conflict with the requirements of the "state".

There is a danger in planning to "maintain" them as "pirates" indefinitely. If really serious, pump them up with "higher purpose", and make them part of a navy or whatever. But no long term role as "pirates".

[shiv]

What do we (India) want out of Somalia? What end result in Somalia could be worse for India than the current situation?

Is there any solution for the Somalia issue that would be mostly favorable for India? Is it just absence of piracy? Or are we looking for territory? Or are we looking for "influence"? If so, what sort of "influence" and to what end? What do we hope to achieve when we look at dominance of the IOR? What's in it for India?

[Prem]

Get the land and natural resources, this is how AS did and Chinese are doing. bring the civilization to Somali natives. Indian are investing in African Agriculture, buying Somaliland will be cheaper . And its next door to our strategic partner Ethiopea.

[brihaspati]

Shiv ji,
(1) Somalia is an entrypoint to East Africa and Subsaharan belt bypassing the problematic Egyptian corridor. Mining or other interests.
(2) Somalia can afford a foothold and naval launchpoint that is not on the more problematic and sensitive Arabian peninsula.
(3) Its nationhood is more contested and still in a formative stage. Hence more amenable to penetration than say Yemen or KSA or the Gulf region.
(4) It is a point to counter-weight any weight being thrown around from the peninsula to choke off the Red Sea.
(5) It does serve as a servicing centre for the trans-national criminal route that circles the peninsula and definitely has connections to both Pak as well as "friendly Indians" from India's west coast. A handle there could mean a lot for our internal security.
(6) perhaps the last but not the least simpleton logic - if we don't get there, our friends across the border will be there.

Having said that, none of our brainstorming will have any effect. As far as I know, the know-alls in the corridors of power have laughed away all these suggestions. They calculate it is just too risky - and they don't want any further "provocation" and "escalation". The thinking is "defensive" and "reactive", and the IOR is not being - at least yet - thought of as a military expansion zone. Lots of bogeyman forwarded from lots of innocent and patriotic interests - friends of Indo-china society, friends of Indo-pak society, friends of Indo-Islamism society - any overt action would bring matching aggressive actions and hence counterproductive for our economy.

[shiv]

(1) Somalia is an entrypoint to East Africa and Subsaharan belt bypassing the problematic Egyptian corridor. Mining or other interests.
(2) Somalia can afford a foothold and naval launchpoint that is not on the more problematic and sensitive Arabian peninsula.
(3) Its nationhood is more contested and still in a formative stage. Hence more amenable to penetration than say Yemen or KSA or the Gulf region.
(4) It is a point to counter-weight any weight being thrown around from the peninsula to choke off the Red Sea.
(5) It does serve as a servicing centre for the trans-national criminal route that circles the peninsula and definitely has connections to both Pak as well as "friendly Indians" from India's west coast. A handle there could mean a lot for our internal security.
(6) perhaps the last but not the least simpleton logic - if we don't get there, our friends across the border will be there.

OK that is as brilliant a summation of issues as I have ever seen. i would use this as a template to brainstorm - even it that is futile.

[Agnimitra]

Lots of Somali refugees in the US, esp. Minnesota and Ohio. I once had the opportunity to work with Ms. Hawa Siad, exec dir of the Somali Women and Children's Alliance, and formerly Somalia's rep to the UN. She was effusive about India. Told me she had lived in India for a while before coming to the US. Apparently quite a few Somalis in India, either as students or simply as refugees. They generally like India, we have a positive image there, and not just due to Bollywood. She told me that Somalia has traded with India and absorbed Indian influences in food, clothing and other aspects for centuries.

In broader cultural terms, she compared Somali tribal ethos to that of Pashtuns. I did find that true in many respects. Very tribal, macho attitude. H&D attitudes are so strong that their refugee community would not accept donations of used clothes. But they were organized and plucky enough to give the local mafia and streetgangs the shock of their lives and create safe ghettos. Moreover, women tend to be oppressed, police intervention during cases of forced female circumcision, etc. The younger generation of refugee expats is doing better, producing a few bright and ambitious kinds. Others often tend to get into trouble with the law.

In terms of religion, Somalia was traditionally influenced by Sufi networks, esp. the Shadhili (Shazili) tariqah. However, today they have been dramatically Wahabized, both, inside Somalia as well as among expat refugees. This is a problem which will take them away from Indian influence. I noticed that those Somali expats who still retain and protect their Sufi heritage tend to regard Indic traditions favorably, often showing up in Hare Krishna temples to participate in kirtan, for example. The Wahabized majority would never do so. I find that other Islamist orgs are reaching out to Somalia aggressively, even among expats. Apart from charity, they also take youngsters under their wing and mentor them so they don't drop out of school, and move on to college, etc. The few Somalis I met were doing their PhD's, but were very active in their religious circles.

[Prem]

Does it mean Somali and Indian Barabar Barabar just like Suffi and Indic Barabar Barabar?
I was kind of hoping may be Indians are better than Somalian. We do have indeed long way to go up on the ladder.

[RajeshA]

Somali Piracy: Looking for Solutions

The only countries, where I would recommend the strategy of large-scale marriages is where we have a definite advantage in wealth differential.

Where the wealth-differential is not there, there marriages can take place only through individual efforts and as such cannot become a large-scale phenomenon which is required to make a big demographic impact in the target land. Also to make demographic impact, the current population of the target land cannot be overly big, for otherwise the challenge becomes too big.

Rajesh - let me be frank with you. I only get irritated with these "change society" ideas of yours because the most kind words I can use for them is "nonsense".

Thanks for the kindness!

Actually I would consider myself to be the one, who least advocates "change society" ideas on BRF. Except for my little recent foray in the "Women in Combat" Thread and my little lighthearted banter there, I've never really written much on "change society" ideas with regard to India. And even there too, I got involved because of personal interest, and hardly altruistic reasons. Anyway, I noticed that the roof was caving on me, and I ran!

Perhaps reform of Indian Muslims society to better reflect Indian national interests, too has been of interest to me. Apart from that, I don't venture to preach how Indian society ought to change or transform. There are much more capable and knowledgeable Maulanas on BRF for such weighty stuff, and WKKitis-Curing, P-Sec Psyche Exposure, De-Macaulayization, Counter-Deracination, Dharmicization, Rashtriya-Consciousness Building, Anti-Corruption, etc. come to mind here.

There is a simple reason for this. No matter how good and advanced your idea may be it cannot be implemented unless you first convince Indians and Somalis (or Pakistanis) that it is desirable. The next step would be to get the marriages going and even if you were to have a "pilot project" of just 250,000 marriages - it would take years. After that those couples will have to produce a new society that will start making a difference in 30 years and start having major effects only in 50 years when the children born of those marriages reach positions of influence. If at all. When it comes to ideas about marriage and wealth you are ignoring how societies have behaved for millennia.

If there is a desire among others, I'd be more than willing to cooperate in fleshing out any proposals.

I'd like to point out to some models we have of public behavior:
a) Often where a natural disaster has struck, e.g. we still can remember the very moving pictures of Pakistanis scrambling and jumping after the floods to receive some aid, some flour, etc., we see a multitude of people just rushing towards something that is on offer. Their plight drives them to seek it. Those who think of providing aid, they seldom think of first starting a pilot project to provide aid, and then one will see if it becomes popular.

b) When some film studio brings out some movie like Ghajini or Pirates of the Caribbean, they hardly think if there would be any takers at all for the movie. They don't think whether they will be getting more or less than a thousand people interested to come to the cinemas. They already have an idea that it would be more like in the millions. So why this confidence? They expect that simply because they know they have a machinery in place to market the product, to build up people's expectations, to play on their tastes. They can't predict exactly if it would be a blockbuster or not, but they usually know that it would get millions of people would see it.

c) In the early 90s, when Internet started, somehow it got out that Computer Engineering was the degree to have, and Indians thronged to study Computer Engineering by the 10s of thousands, so much so that in a short period of time, India had built up a huge pool of Computer programmers, much more than in any other place in the world. Now how come so many people jumped on the bandwagon all of a sudden? Was the CRPF forcing people to study Computer Programming at the tip of a gun?! It happened simply because a population saw salvation and a future in the prospect!

With this all I want to say is, that I am a believer in the power of desperation; machinery to manipulate people's positive attitudes towards something, i.e. generation of demand; and how people get fired up if something proves rewarding.

More importantly, I am a believer in the exponential function.

So I think if the value proposition in front of a poor Somali family is to get a damaad, who has a steady job, who pays mehr upfront, and who is willing to be generous with the family in the future as well, allowing the large family a slightly better standard of living; and a damaad, who subsequently proves himself to take good care of their daughter, remains on friendly terms with the family, makes efforts to learn the Somali language and customs, respects the family, the family gets to rejoice over the gifts that they receive every now and then; then IMHO, such a proposition would definitely be of interest to the Somali family with a daughter in marriageable age.

When that happens many more Somali families would get interested in getting an Indian 'damaad'!

I presume many matrimonial agencies can be set up to further this cause.

Initially though, I think religion would be a barrier. So if the Indian Army encourage 2000-3000 of its Indian Muslim jawans to marry locally, the Somalis would be far more willing to give their daughters. Subsequently they will simply start saying that their daughters are married to an Indian, blending out the aspect that the damaad is a Muslim, making marrying daughters to Indians a normal thing, where the religion of the 'damaad' is not seen as too big a hurdle. So many more Indian jawans, including Indics, would be able to marry locally.

When Indian firms start putting up shop, they too can be encouraged by the GoI to offer their employees similar offers of jobs and wives in Somalia, and many more Indians will come, and Somalis would be willing to give their daughters to many more Indians.

Once sufficient Somali girls have married across the religious divide, it would become acceptable, and the practice would continue!

A couple of anecdotes to "changing society"!
a) A close Erithrean friend of mine, told about his aunt having married an Indian restaurant owner in USA. Since then the family felt somehow connected to India.

b) A German friend of mine, who actually comes from a more traditional German family from the countryside, often speaks of his uncle who married an Indian woman from South India, and since then India is ever present in the consciousness of the larger family.

All I want to say, is that if some non-Indian family has a member who marries an Indian, it has an effect on the whole larger family, who feel sympathetic towards India.

That is the kind of sympathy and warmth India can expect within the Somali society within a few years of our deployment there. We don't have to wait for generations to notice some change. Within 10 years one would be noticing the change in Somali society and how they view Indians and Indian involvement in Somalia.

Rajeshji - you will be dead long before the fruits of your thinking can be proven to be right or wrong. I don't know whether you want to be known as a radical thinker who came up with brilliant ideas that are being written by you now but their value will be noticed after 200 or 300 years and you will be recognized then, But right now there is nothing in these ideas that appears practicable. You are dumping revolutionary "Let us change society" idea with no information of how you will bring about that revolution.

If you are unable to flesh out how you will implement your revolutionary ideas and merely throw a large number of ideas ideas in the air hoping that some might take root - you are merely filling up forum space that makes it easier to ignore your messages and read what others have to say. You are not doing yourself do anyone else a favor. Initially it is amusing and fresh to see new ideas.But as they get profuse and impractical and laced with rhetorical argument - it only gets boring and easier to ignore. Pardon me for being frank.

shiv saar,

I don't have any pretensions that somebody of influence would notice what I have written here, much less consider me some "radical thinker" worth remembering. I am just one voice among many many knowledgeable BRFites. Internet is a big place. All I produce is a little noise on the Internet. Take it for what it is worth.

[RajeshA]

Somali Piracy: Looking for Solutions

RajesA ji,
I specifically mentioned that the ideal client king is a "weaker" one - one who is on the point of being pushed out of the race. So many weak "bosses" are a good proposition for what I am suggesting. The Romans did it with the Brits [or wherever they nosed in - for example Cleopatra was the "exiled" weaker one, or the the first client tribal chiefs in Brit-land, etc], and the Brits did it with Indians.

brihaspati garu,

if we do not do this at the "national" level, but do rather at the "district" level, or at the clan/sub-clan level, then it is just what the doctor ordered. At every sub-clan level, warlord level, we can choose our favorites, and facilitate their rise to power.

However we have to take care of our image internationally, with the Somaliland and Puntland governments and most importantly the general populace. We should not be seen as having colonial intentions or being too involved in this power play. An image which commands respect in one group, can have negative implications in another group.

As such we should create a few layers of proxies, to deal with Somali Pirates, to deal with Warlords, to deal with different Sub-Clan politics, to deal with Al-Shebaab etc., so that GoI can keep her hands and reputation clean. We can be dealing in weapons, influence, politics, and what not, but all that is done through proxies.

Piracy cannot be tolerated. If you maintain it, sooner or later it will get out of hand and undermine your own overall control. Piracy is about "anti-control" - and every state power that set out using them have had to turn against them after a certain stage. England started its naval career by piracy and had to literally gun them down afterwards, and not many perhaps know that even the Americans used piracy at first - the venerable scientist diplomat uncle Ben Franklin being allegedly an enthusiast too, but even the Americans ultimately had to move against pirates.

One branch in my family maintained 100 "dacait-sardars", and gave them land and villages to settle with their "retinue". Condition was that the chiefs would have to be in constant attendance at the main seat of power, and that they would be virtual hostages for the "good behaviour" of their family and retinue within the "domains". My suspicion is that they were used for less than good behaviour "outside" the domains. I have seen a "junior", then estimated at over 90, and chatted with him, so the story did bear out. He said one of his uncles was executed because he had raided a village within the "domains" out of "old habit", and the rest of the hundred were made to watch it as a lesson. It is indeed a lesson well worth remembering if we start out to engage the Somali pirates.

In the long term, 15-20 years, it would have to be put an end to. This is the time we will need to establish our influence in the Somali society and politics. This is the time we will need to build a commercial presence in the region without being constantly challenged by other powers. So in this period, piracy which is under our control can in fact be positive. Once we have established our domination, piracy does indeed become an activity which can challenge the stability of the system we built, and as such would need to be ended.

The good thing is, that in this time, we would have built a proper economy there, in order to wean away the pirates away from piracy into commercial and security activities more conformant with our system. Since we would have been ourselves involved with piracy all this time in an informal and behind-the-scenes position, we would all the inside knowledge we would need to pull the plug on piracy. Then we can do a Godfather move!

[RajeshA]

(1) Somalia is an entrypoint to East Africa and Subsaharan belt bypassing the problematic Egyptian corridor. Mining or other interests.
(2) Somalia can afford a foothold and naval launchpoint that is not on the more problematic and sensitive Arabian peninsula.
(3) Its nationhood is more contested and still in a formative stage. Hence more amenable to penetration than say Yemen or KSA or the Gulf region.
(4) It is a point to counter-weight any weight being thrown around from the peninsula to choke off the Red Sea.
(5) It does serve as a servicing centre for the trans-national criminal route that circles the peninsula and definitely has connections to both Pak as well as "friendly Indians" from India's west coast. A handle there could mean a lot for our internal security.
(6) perhaps the last but not the least simpleton logic - if we don't get there, our friends across the border will be there.

brihaspati garu,

This is a great list. Thanks for underlining the importance of Somalia in the overall scheme of things.

[Klaus]

Or are we looking for "influence"? If so, what sort of "influence" and to what end? What do we hope to achieve when we look at dominance of the IOR? What's in it for India?

One of the unstated objectives in this talk of "influence of IOR" is the fact that a military role in this region will gradually force a change of the Indian rashtra into one which is aggressive and risk-neutral in nature. The Elephant will begin to come into its own (if this terminology somehow satisfices), through external events shaped by us. The Somalian expedition will provide a useful reflection to greater number of Indians to learn about themselves (thereby improving ourselves as a civilization). There is a saying in Hindi, loosely translated as "Sometimes, we need to learn about ourselves through the help of another person". This is the explanation you could get from a inward-looking perspective. Somalia could either be a "Mirror mirror, who is the most beautiful of them all?" superficial experience or a kaleidoscope of utilized potential which would have remained latent, depending on what we choose to make it.

Regarding the UN mandate, India must make sure that it does not fall into a situation such as the Shandong problem or a situation where we are forced to make "21 Demands" of ruling autonomous militias in Puntland.

[RajeshA]

Indian Interests in Somalia

What end result in Somalia could be worse for India than the current situation?

1. Basically we are seeing the birth of a Wahhabi monster in our backyard, and he is growing bigger by the day. So if somebody does nothing (or does the wrong thing) it will continue to grow, till we would look like an island swimming in a sea of non-compromising Wahhabism. The poverty and anarchy in Somalia and Yemen, lend them to be particularly prone to Wahhabism.
2. Somali piracy can grow to such an extent that it covers almost whole of the Indian Ocean Rim, from Madagascar to Indonesia, especially strong along Somalia, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, having a very adverse effect on Indian trade.
3. Somali pirates can be nurtured by the Pakistanis and be set on India, especially if move in a ham-handed way to stop them. The Pakistanis can create a graveyard for India, just like they have created one for America in AfPak.

What do we (India) want out of Somalia?

This depends on the vision.

Is there any solution for the Somalia issue that would be mostly favorable for India?

Ideally we would wish for a Horn of Africa, which is as aligned to India, as Europe is aligned to America, which acts as a force-multiplier for Indian domination in the Indian Ocean.

Is it just absence of piracy?

Piracy can even be good, if Indian ships and sailors are exempt from its brunt.

Or are we looking for territory?

In the Horn of Africa, we are looking for territory which

1. provides India with food
2. trades with India in minerals, Oil
3. supports Indian security paradigms
4. enables free flow of Indian goods

We are not necessarily looking for territory, which would have to be considered part of Indian Union. We are not looking for territory to call it Indian territory, as long as we get all the benefits of the territory.

Or are we looking for "influence"? If so, what sort of "influence" and to what end?

We are looking for influence, where:

1. The Somali people are at ease with Indic and Dharmic thinking.
2. The Somali people use Devanagri as their script and not Arabic. They may even use Hindi as a second or third language.
3. The Somali people have the same political and administrative institutions such as India, so that they better interface with those form India.
4. The Somali people use Indian currecy.
5. Indians have a near monopoly over the economy of Horn of Africa.
6. The Somali people consider India as their closest international partner, and are allied to us.

If other powers know that India controls Bab-el-Mandeb, a most important choke point for trade, they will be more cooperative and would not push India into corners, or make wars with us. We can be more aggressive in safeguarding our national interests with less to worry about some backlash.

What do we hope to achieve when we look at dominance of the IOR? What's in it for India?

Either we will dominate IOR or somebody else will.

[RajeshA]

The Pakistani-Somali Nexus

Interview with one of the Indian crewmen on the MV Suez. He is much taken by the Pakistani propaganda, but he still had a few words of value to say.

Published on Jun 26, 2011
Militant outfits funding Somali pirate, says freed MV Suez hostage: ANI

Shimla, June 26: Prashant Chauhan, who was among the abducted Indian onboard the MV Suez, which was hijacked by Somali pirates, has said that militant outfits might be funding piracy on the high seas.

Talking to reporters after reaching his hometown, Chauhan said that a country's involvement in nurturing piracy cannot be ruled out.

"There are some militant organisations which are funding and providing weapons to them (Somali pirates). They might even be having some share in the hijacking of ships, as they must be charging them money and using them to supply arms. I am sure some country might also be involved in this," he added.

[RajeshA]

Published on Jun 22. 2011
By Mateen Hafeez
Chargesheets against 104 Somali pirates: Times of India

MUMBAI: The Yellow Gate police filed three charge sheets against 104 Somali pirates last week. Another charge sheet against 16 pirates will be filed within a couple of days, said police officials.

"We have filed charge sheets against 104 pirates who were arrested on March 12 for hijacking several ships like Vega 5 and Al-Murtuza. The Somalians have been booked for attempt to murder, unlawful assembly, criminal intimidation, criminal conspiracy and for carrying weapons," said investigating officer M G Tope.

Each case has a 520-page charge sheet. The pirates were captured by the Indian Navy after the coast guard alerted it about the hijacked vessels. Navy had rounded up 120 pirates in several raids and rescued 70 hostages belonging to Thailand, Philippines, Bangladesh, Iran, Turkey, Myanmar and Pakistan. Subsequently, other countries claimed their nationals back. However, Pakistani is yet to claim five of its nationals.

[RajeshA]

Somali Piracy: The Challenge

Posting in full because of relevance.

Published on Apr 19, 2011
By B. Raman
Somali Pirates say they are at War with India: SAAG

Somali pirates have raised the ante for operating ships operating with crews that have nationalized citizens of India.

India has been cleaning up territorial waters and piracy operating in their EEZ with a great deal of success lately, and after several successful actions going back to February, India has apparently pissed off some of the pirates a great deal.

This is the latest incident:

Somalia pirates said on Saturday they would keep any Indian nationals from freed ships as hostages until fellow pirates held by India are set free.

Somali pirates, who make millions of dollars ransoming ships hijacked as far south as the Seychelles and eastwards towards India, on Friday released MT Asphalt Venture, but held some of its Indian crew.

"We are holding eight of Asphalt Venture crew. It was a joint understanding among us not to release any Indian citizens," a pirate who gave his name as Abdi told Reuters from pirate stronghold Harardhere.

"India hasn't only declared war against us, but also it has risked the lives of many hostages," he said.

Basically a multimillion dollar ransom was paid for the release of MT Asphalt Venture, and the ship was released, but the pirates kept 8 Indian nationals and are claiming they will keep all Indian nationals hostage until pirates that the Indian Navy and Coast Guard have captured are released. Pirates are no longer operating under normal rules, the spokesman in Harardhere is specifically using the word WAR, meaning they now feel they are in a state of war with India.

In the language of war, the pirates appear to be offering some sort of prisoner exchange.

Harardhere is the pirate stronghold in the south that many news sources have claimed direct financial agreements exist between pirates and Al Shabaab. (a pro-Al Qaeda organisation )

India has over 35,000 nationals who are employed globally as seamen on commercial ships flagged from a number of countries, and there are some very powerful maritime unions that work to protect the rights of those workers. We might also see some issues raised with insurance payments, because if a ransom payment is not valid for an Indian seaman, that could create a pretty big problem for piracy insurance premiums for ships with Indian nationals as crew members.

It will be interesting to see how this unfolds over the next few days."

3. "The Hindu" of Chennai has reported as follows on this incident on April 19:" The Navy has sent a warship towards the Somali coast to keep a vigil on the hijacked merchant vessel on which seven Indian sailors are being held as hostages, despite payment of ransom by the owners of the ship. INS Talwar, currently deployed on an anti-piracy patrol mission off the Gulf of Aden, was diverted towards the coast. The move is being seen as an aggressive posture by the Navy. During an informal interaction, Defence Minister A. K. Antony refused to comment on whether the warship would launch action to free the hostages. Sources in the Navy and the Government maintained that the move was to ensure that the merchant vessel was not rendered further vulnerable and that the warship would not leave the area unless the hostages were released."

4. "The Hindu" has further reported as follows: "According to latest figures, 53 Indian sailors are being held hostage on five different ships. Of them, 17 have been held for the longest on MT Savina Caylyn, an Italian ship which was seized on February 8, 2010."

5. The tricky incident has two dimensions ---tactical and strategic. The tactical dimension relates to securing the release of the Indian sailors who are still held hostages in order to apparently force the Government of India and our Navy to agree to a swap deal for the release of the Indian hostages in return for the release by India of some of the Somali pirates arrested by the Navy in the past, The Indian naval ship sent to the area would most probably have the following objectives: Firstly, to collect reliable intelligence. Secondly, to persuade/pressure the pirates to release the Indian sailors without harming them. Thirdly, to prevent the hostages from being transferred to land in Somalia from the ship, which could come in the way of rescue operations. Fourthly, to launch rescue operations involving minimal risks to the hostages if all other options fail. Since the Somali authorities have very little control over these pirates, the question of the Government of India using intermediaries may not arise.

6. The strategic dimension relates to how we are going to prevent similar incidents in future and to examine what kind of scenarios we might face in future and what kind of proactive and reactive options are available to our Navy. In view of the activist role of the Indian Navy in dealing with Somali piracy, the targeting of Indian nationals, interests and Indian naval and other onshore establishments by the pirates---with a steadily lengthening reach towards the Indian coast--- could become more frequent, more virulent and more aggressive. This would call for a re-look at our counter-piracy strategy.

[RajeshA]

Somali Piracy: Looking for Solutions

Posting in full because of relevance.

Published on Jun 19, 2011
By B. Raman
Dealing with Somali Piracy: Still Groping in the Dark: SAAG

We are still groping in the dark in matters relating to action against the Somali pirates, who are more and more active despite all the preventive patrolling, more and more venturesome coming closer and closer to our waters and more and more difficult to handle with neither prevention nor cure in sight in the near and medium-term future.

2.Any comprehensive strategy to deal with the menace has to have the following dimensions:

(a). Preventive through naval patrolling in the waters where the pirates operate.

(b). Protective by strengthening our coastal defence to prevent their venturing out towards our coast.

(c). Pre-emptive by identifying their rear bases in Somalia and neutralising them.

(d). Tactical for dealing with hostage situations where they succeed in hijacking ships with Indian crew despite our preventive measures.

(e). Investigative for investigating and prosecuting pirates involved in the hijacking of ships.

(f). Co-operative for co-ordinating our actions with those of other States equally affected by the menace.

3. What are the ground or sea realities more than two years after we realised that the evil confronting us in the waters to the West of us was more serious than that in the waters to the East of us? The preventive patrolling by navies of different countries has not denied the pirates the availability of pockets where they can still pounce on unsuspecting ships and hijack them. This is because of a lack of co-ordination in patrolling. As a result, the entire sea stretch is not covered effectively. I had pointed out in the past the importance of co-ordination among the navies of India, China, Japan, Singapore,Pakistan and South Korea to remove such pockets and cover gaps. Nothing has been done in this direction. Partly due to our own reluctance to give any role to the navies of China and Pakistan. We have to get over this mental reservation. {Do not agree} Otherwise, the preventive measures will remain only partially effective

4.The protective measures seem to be producing results as seen by the success of our Coast Guard in intercepting Somali pirates moving towards our waters and detaining them. It is the effectiveness of our protective measures that has added to the anti-Indian anger of the pirates and the hardening of their stand during negotiations for the release of captured Indian sailors. If we want our Coast Guard to be tough in preventing the pirates from approaching our coastal waters, we must be prepared to face difficulties in securing the release of our sailors captured and held hostage in distant waters. Pakistan does not face this difficulty because its Navy does not arrest, detain and seek to prosecute Somali pirates. {More on Pakistan-Somali Nexus} We do. It is unfair to project our Navy and Coast Guard in negative colours without understanding the constraints under which they operate.

5. Pre-emption has been a non-starter because the international community---not even the US---is in a position now to undertake this. The position has been rendered more difficult by the influence and activities of Al Qaeda in Somalia.

6. Our tactical response to hostage situations is still unsatisfactory. This is not surprising. It took the international community five years or even more to find an effective tactical response to hostage situations on the ground or on board hijacked aircraft. It could take us even longer to find a workable tactical response to hostage situations on the high seas. Tiring out hostage-takers will be more difficult and will take a much longer time when the hostages are held on board a ship on the high seas than on board an aircraft parked in an airport or in a building. Successful commando action to free the hostages would be more difficult on the high seas than on the ground. The delay in the rescue of the six Indian seamen who were caught up on board a hijacked Egyptian ship MV Suez, captained by a Pakistani officer, which has led to an unfortunate war of words between India and Pakistan, could be partly attributed to the dilemma faced by India due to its action in detaining some suspected Somali pirates found in waters near our shore. Their detention has generally hardened the attitude of the Somali pirates as a whole to India and has created difficulties in our negotiations with pirates holding Indian hostages. While the Pakistani authorities have to be generously thanked for their help in getting the Indian hostages released through the intermediary of a Pakistani humanitarian relief organisation, any criticism of the failure of the Indian Navy to get them released would be uncalled for. Without co-operation among the navies of affected countries any tactical response is bound to remain unsatisfactory.

7. The investigative dimension is being tried out by us only for the last few months after the detention of some Somali pirates. The media had recently reported that due to the hardening of the attitude of the Somali pirates towards India, the Government of India was re-examining its policy of detaining and prosecuting Somali pirates caught in the vicinity of our waters. Such a re-examination will be unwise and will convey a wrong message to the pirates that India is amenable to pressure.

8.In the light of the criticism of the delay in securing the release of the Indian seamen held hostage on board MV Suez and the unfortunate war of words between India and Pakistan, the time has come to re-visit out counter-piracy strategy from two angles. The first is our national capability for dealing with hostage situations----whether in near or far-away waters--- and our ability for commando action if negotiations fail. Not only India, but other countries too have been facing difficulties in dealing with hostage situations where the ship belongs to another country. If the ship flies the Indian flag, there is no problem. If it flies the flag of another country, we have to seek the consent of the Government of that country before we can act.

9. The Pakistan Navy faces some advantages in dealing with the Somali pirates. The influence of the Tablighi Jamaat (TJ) of Pakistan is very strong in Somalia. {More on Pakistan-Somali Nexus} They can seek the assistance of the TJ and other organisations close to it for establishing contact with the pirates and seeking the release of the hostages. We do not have this advantage. It is very difficult for us to initiate negotiations with the pirates. How do we get over this difficulty?

10. The second angle relates to setting up a structured co-operative mechanism involving the navies of India, China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Pakistan for strengthening preventive patrolling and for evolving a mechanism for mutual assistance in dealing with hostage situations. India should take the initiative for bringing together senior officers of the navies and Coast Guards of these countries for a brain-storming on setting up a regional counter-piracy organisation. We should not allow our unsatisfactory over-all relations with Pakistan to stand in the way of such an initiative. This subject can be discussed at the forthcoming meeting of the Foreign Secretaries of India and Pakistan in Islamabad.

[RajeshA]

Somali Piracy: Looking for Solutions

IMO, Shri B. Raman fails to appreciate the strategic angle to Somali piracy and the Pakistani-Somali Nexus and its anti-Indian orientation or at least its anti-Indian potential.

He treats Pakistani Navy's exchanges with Somali pirates as no different than those of some other country's navy. Pakistani behavior regarding Somali pirates does not seem to him as facilitatory towards Somali piracy.

Or it can be that he is simply not as paranoid about the Somali Pirates as me!

He does propose good solutions but they are more like sand bags in a flood, than anything transformative.

[shiv]

Somali Piracy: Looking for Solutions

IMO, Shri B. Raman fails to appreciate the strategic angle to Somali piracy and the Pakistani-Somali Nexus and its anti-Indian orientation or at least its anti-Indian potential.

He treats Pakistani Navy's exchanges with Somali pirates as no different than those of some other country's navy. Pakistani behavior regarding Somali pirates does not seem to him as facilitatory towards Somali piracy.

Or it can be that he is simply not as paranoid about the Somali Pirates as me!

He does propose good solutions but they are more like sand bags in a flood, than anything transformative.

B Raman probably knows a lot more than he writes.

[RajeshA]

B Raman probably knows a lot more than he writes.

I'm sure he does, but then I can comment only on what he writes.

[shiv]

B Raman probably knows a lot more than he writes.

I'm sure he does, but then I can comment only on what he writes.

But this what you actually said

Shri B. Raman fails to appreciate the strategic angle to Somali piracy

[RajeshA]

But this what you actually said

Shri B. Raman fails to appreciate the strategic angle to Somali piracy

Shri B. Raman fails to appreciate {in his papers} the strategic angle to Somali piracy
shiv saar,

I don't know Shri B. Raman personally. My experiments with telepathy haven't succeeded as yet either. I can only comment on what he writes. And I can only give my subjective opinion on it.

I have respect for his credentials, and I have respect for his thinking. But that does not mean, I will agree with all that he writes.

Even if we assume, I was making a comment on his persona itself, and not merely on his writings, you say

Somali Piracy: Looking for Solutions

IMO, Shri B. Raman fails to appreciate the strategic angle to Somali piracy and the Pakistani-Somali Nexus and its anti-Indian orientation or at least its anti-Indian potential.

He treats Pakistani Navy's exchanges with Somali pirates as no different than those of some other country's navy. Pakistani behavior regarding Somali pirates does not seem to him as facilitatory towards Somali piracy.

Or it can be that he is simply not as paranoid about the Somali Pirates as me!

He does propose good solutions but they are more like sand bags in a flood, than anything transformative.

B Raman probably knows a lot more than he writes.

Now that pertains to his information, and not to his conclusions. I commented on his conclusions and not his knowledge.

You are probably implying that because he has more information, he was able to arrive at the right conclusions. Now the nature of that information can only be such that he would give a clean chit to the Pakistani Navy and Pakistani establishment regarding Somali piracy. Which differs a lot from my understanding of how Pakis tick. The only other explanation would be that his ideological bent may not allow him to express the right conclusions.

So perhaps you can enlighten me, why would Shri B Raman suggest cooperation with the Pakistanis:

1. Pakistanis are innocent lambs and are not helping Somali pirates, hence their navy should be taken into confidence regarding surveillance of the piracy-prone waters, (much in the same way, Americans pass on intelligence about the Taliban to the Pakistani officials).
2. Pakistanis are not innocent, but still they need to be taken into confidence, because Shri B. Raman thinks they are innocent, which would mean B. Raman has the wrong intelligence, something you refute.
3. Pakistanis are not innocent, Shri B. Raman suspects that, but still suggests cooperation, because his ideological bent would not allow him to suggest otherwise.
4. Pakistanis are not innocent, Shri B. Raman knows that, but still suggests cooperation, but that would imply he does not have India's interests at heart.
5. Some other reason.

[brihaspati]

How about opening negotiations directly with Shabaab? At the same time, declare the following:

(1) If Indian sailors or nationals are targeted, then GOI will ask whoever claims to hold authority in Somalia to enforce safe return and future non-occurrence of such incidents. If such authority formally disagrees - says that pirates are non-state actors - then India should clearly say that in that case Indian amphibous forces will pursue any pirate to whichever nations territorial waters they escape to. If Somalia happens to be such a destination, India will use whatever force is necessary to try and rescue and destroy as much of the pirate infrastructure as feasible.

(2) Declare that any nation which comes to the support of Somali pirates, or during the pursuit, evidence comes to light that any foreign nation is found to be connected to the piracy - then India will take action, if necessary unilaterally against that nation.

But building a naval base at the tip of the horn becomes inevitable. If the local powers cannot stop the piracy and cannot stop targeting of India, then India must muscle in and say - okay we will take care of our own, from your own soil. Here, take some geld as compensation for H&D.

[shiv]

So perhaps you can enlighten me, why would Shri B Raman suggest cooperation with the Pakistanis:

1. Pakistanis are innocent lambs and are not helping Somali pirates, hence their navy should be taken into confidence regarding surveillance of the piracy-prone waters, (much in the same way, Americans pass on intelligence about the Taliban to the Pakistani officials).
2. Pakistanis are not innocent, but still they need to be taken into confidence, because Shri B. Raman thinks they are innocent, which would mean B. Raman has the wrong intelligence, something you refute.
3. Pakistanis are not innocent, Shri B. Raman suspects that, but still suggests cooperation, because his ideological bent would not allow him to suggest otherwise.
4. Pakistanis are not innocent, Shri B. Raman knows that, but still suggests cooperation, but that would imply he does not have India's interests at heart.
5. Some other reason.

This is Raman's statement that you disagreed with

I had pointed out in the past the importance of co-ordination among the navies of India, China, Japan, Singapore,Pakistan and South Korea to remove such pockets and cover gaps. Nothing has been done in this direction. Partly due to our own reluctance to give any role to the navies of China and Pakistan. We have to get over this mental reservation.

What makes you reach all the conclusions that you have reached to make out the long list of points above that are second guessing what Raman might be thinking?

The Godavari went to assist the MV Suez even though the Babur was already there - that much is clear from a news item I read today. The Godavari need not have done that. It is not as though the Godavari was escorting the Suez and the babur took over. The news items says that the Godavari went as a matter of abundant precaution (or some such words - I will try and retrieve that news).

I am sure Raman is right as I am sure your interpretation is wrong.

Here is what the Navy Chief said. Clearly the Godavari went onto the scene despite the fact that the Babur was already there. th reason is explained and highlighted by me in bold
http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes ... rmal-verma

"Several navies are operating together in anti-piracy patrols...Whichever warship is closest to a merchant vessel under distress comes to help. And the warships that were the closest (PNS Babur) helped in this instance," he said.

Indian Navy, on its part, "worked a lot behind the scenes" to "actively coordinate" with other foreign navies in the region to ensure MV Suez's safe passage. "We are not in the business of taking credit," he said.

INS Godavari, the only Indian warship deployed in the Gulf of Aden, was at that point in time busy escorting two other merchant vessels, with 21 Indians on board them. "There is no way INS Godavari could have left them, as they would have been susceptible to piracy," he said.

When hijacked ships such as the Egyptian-owned MV Suez -- which had six Indians among its 22-strong crew captained by a Pakistani national -- are released after long periods of captivity, there is a "tremendous sense of fear" among the crew about being hijacked again.

"When it seemed the families of the sailors were not sure of their safety, we decided to show the flag of the Indian warship (INS Godavari), and it means a lot," he added. That is when PNS Babur, apparently unhappy at the presence of INS Godavari, indulged in risky manoeuvres to brush against the Indian warship.

[RajeshA]

This is Raman's statement that you disagreed with

I had pointed out in the past the importance of co-ordination among the navies of India, China, Japan, Singapore,Pakistan and South Korea to remove such pockets and cover gaps. Nothing has been done in this direction. Partly due to our own reluctance to give any role to the navies of China and Pakistan. We have to get over this mental reservation.

I am sure Raman is right as I am sure your interpretation is wrong.

If I am wrong, GoI is wrong also. Why else would GoI show reluctance? So our whole National Security apparatus is wrong, and Shri B. Raman is right!

But then may be Shri B. Raman has more information than GoI! Or is it, that GoI may have more information but is coming to the wrong conclusions, in which case, I probably could write the whole list of options again, this time about GoI's conclusions.

The Godavari went to assist the MV Suez even though the Babur was already there - that much is clear from a news item I read today. The Godavari need not have done that. It is not as though the Godavari was escorting the Suez and the babur took over. The news items says that the Godavari went as a matter of abundant precaution (or some such words - I will try and retrieve that news).

INS Godavari incident with PNS Babur has got nothing to do with sharing information on patrolling to cover gaps, which was a general statement on the general policy.

[shiv]

If I am wrong, GoI is wrong also. Why else would GoI show reluctance? So our whole National Security apparatus is wrong, and Shri B. Raman is right!

You are cooking up things. Where does it say GoI? He may be disagreeing with people such as yourself whose public outrage on TV and other media in trusting the MV Suez with the Babur forced the Indian navy to go and show the flag to the MV Suez when it was already being accompanied by the Babur. That is clear from the news item

"When it seemed the families of the sailors were not sure of their safety, we decided to show the flag of the Indian warship (INS Godavari), and it means a lot," he added. That is when PNS Babur, apparently unhappy at the presence of INS Godavari, indulged in risky manoeuvres to brush against the Indian warship.

[RajeshA]

If I am wrong, GoI is wrong also. Why else would GoI show reluctance? So our whole National Security apparatus is wrong, and Shri B. Raman is right!

You are cooking up things. Where does it say GoI? He may be disagreeing with people such as yourself whose public outrage on TV and other media in trusting the MV Suez with the Babur forced the Indian navy to go and show the flag to the MV Suez when it was already being accompanied by the Babur. That is clear from the news item

"When it seemed the families of the sailors were not sure of their safety, we decided to show the flag of the Indian warship (INS Godavari), and it means a lot," he added. That is when PNS Babur, apparently unhappy at the presence of INS Godavari, indulged in risky manoeuvres to brush against the Indian warship.

Why do you think he is speaking about the INS Godavari incident? Where does he mention that?

[shiv]

Why do you think he is speaking about the INS Godavari incident?

It is the only known case of publicly announced mistrust of the Pakistani navy in anti-piracy patrolling.

It is my view that we invited trouble. It would have been better to let the Pakis do their bit, good or bad. But there was such a hue and cry in India that the Godavari had to go off its routine patrol and give the BastBabur a chance to behave stupid even as Pakis took credit.