shiv wrote:On the topic of the US wanting to see Cashmeer in Pakistani hands the question that comes to mind is "Why would the US want to see Cashmere in Paki hands?" What would the US stand to gain by that?
The US was looking for allies in its "great game" of checking communism and the Soviet empire and Pakistan grabbed the opportunity with both hands in the 1950s. Please revisit that Liaqat Ali Khan interview linked on Arun Gupta's blog. I think the piskological significance of the term "Great game" is easily missed. The "Real game" - the "Great" game was what big boy played. Small petty regional disputes were not part of the "Great" game unless they could be exploited to get allies or dominate over the power of one's adversary.
But the point I want to make was that many of the US's actions in the post 1950s years were actions of anxiety and dhoti shivering, not actions of strength - which is what they appeared to be to us weakling cowardly Yindoos. The US was fighting rearguard action to protect the US from Communism which appeared to be gaining strength. The thoughtless dumping of arms into a perfidious Pakistan was not a well calculated chess move - it was a reaction to communist advances where the US sought any goddam ch**t as an ally if he made the right noises. The US sort of backed out from arming Pakistan after 1965 - but just 3-4 years later the US found itself in another big mess in Vietnam. It was at this time that the US did another dhoti shivering reactive act that they are paying for today.
Pakistan had moved closer to China when US embargos kicked in after 1965. Nixon/Kissinger - in their fear of Communism used Pakistani good offiices" to become friends with China and reduce the Communist threat that the US faced. The Pakistan China alliance in the 1960s was purely anti-India. It had nothing to do with China global aspirations. The US joined that alliance - not to oppose India but to neutralise a Chinese communist threat. This was a dhoti shivering reactive act to the US's losing situation in Vietnam and not the great Chankian chess move we see.
Then Pakistan went and botched things again in 1971. Embargos kicked in but the US was more concerned about Vietnam, and a few years later they were out. The US was shamed. Communism had won. That set the stage for using Afghanistan and Pakistan once again to defeat communism. Once again the US who ha already selected a ch**tiya nation as an ally just because she offered herself - used that same Pakistan again to shore up, train and arm Islamic fundamentalists to defeat the USSR.
Now suddenly the US finds that the Pakistan army is not in control, the Pakistani state is decrepit and shrunken, the US is still in trouble and that trouble comes from Pakistan itself and the US is now trying to use Pakistan against itself.
Whichever way I look at it - a war over Cashmere will be disastrous for US interests and the Paki army.
Sir,
Not sure, I agree with everything but a good analysis. In fact, a good analysis always starts with the right question, and you asked, in my view, an excellent question to start this discussion, "why would the US like to see Cash in Pak hands" ?
The consensus answer to this question on BRF is that US is threatened by India. India is a big country with the potential to become a big power and which has an independent streak, and therefore, US keeps the Cashmere card open to check India's rise. I personally think, that is all nonsense. I think the answer is closer to what you have argued, that US needed Pak, that whether in position of strength or not (I disagree with you slightly that US has actually been relatively weak), US has acted out of fear with regards to Pakistan. But more than even fear, US has acted out of a classic "Indian businessman" mentality, which is "if bribing is an option, try that first". I think it is even much simpler than your analysis of fear, which certainly plays a part. Why US has had a tilt towards Pak, not only in Cahsmere but also in general, is because US wants to bribe and buy allies for whatever its purpose is, whether it be to fight Communists or their war against Taliban in Afghanistan, which they mistakenly think are separate from Pak itself.
Precisely because American policy towards Cashmere is not directed out of any direct US national interest of any kinds, such as checking India's rise, lest it threatens US interests, I have stated in the past, that it is an ideal time and opportunity for the Indian diplomacy to change American thinking on the entire Pak mess, along with Cashmere. I think, Indian diplomats, if they do their jobs right and earn their pay, should present a very simple, yet potent case to the US government that:
1. Now that there are no communists, Islam is the biggest threat.
2. Unlike, communism, which was much easier for people to abandon, it is practically impossible for a muslim to abandon Islam. Once a muslim, always a muslim. You can only leave the religion upon the penalty of death, as per Islamic theology.
3. That Pakistan is merely the front state or you can call it an advance battle division for all of Islam, in their quest to dominate the world.
4. That Indian subcontinent is already almost 40% Islamic and once they hit 51%, then the rest of India will fall really fast, as there is no concept of co-existence in a majority Islamic entity.
5. That if India becomes Islamic, there will be a siesmic power shift in the world in favor of Islam
6. That once India falls, China will be next to become Islamic (Islam is growing fast in China even among the Han and is competing with the Christians in a subterranean conversion battle that is going on in China and the Chinese government's antipathy towards Tibet and India is reflecting in its policy of looking the other way, as more and more Buddhists leaning Chinese are converted into Christianity and Islam. It seems the Chinese Communist Party's athiesm and anti-religiousity only extends to the Buddhists and Buddhist influenced movements such as Falon Gung, while allowing the Christians and Islamists some space to operate, Xinxiang not withstanding)
7. Once India and China are Islamic, West's days are numbered
8. All this can happen within the next 100 years or so, but the retreat and ill effects of Islamic expansion have already started years or decades ago, but at least now the signs can be visible even to the West, if it opens its eyes and chooses to see
I contend that if Indian diplomats do not do this, it will be a serious deriliction of duty. The time is now. The opportunity is now.
Also, I do not agree with you that a war over Cashmere will be disastrous to US interests. There is already a war against Cashmere going on since 47, which has intensified since 1991, and it has not been disastrous to US interests. It has been disastrous to Indian interests (let us face it). An all out war will even be more disastrous for India. Why will it be disastrous for the US ? Slightly unpleasant, but disastrous ? A bit of a sense of too much self-importance ?