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PostPosted: 25 Mar 2012 06:17 
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Looks like Mods would ahve to start a Sindh thread on teh lines of the balochistan thread. The song in the background in the above thread is "sarfaroshi ki tamanna aaj hamare dil mein" by ram prasad bismil good going sindhu vaasiyon


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PostPosted: 27 Mar 2012 10:07 
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Its amazing how this is the dejure topic of talkshows and opeds.
Roku had TED, UCTV "conversations with history" all have this topic.


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PostPosted: 01 Apr 2012 02:16 
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brihaspati wrote:
The difference from the so-called trade-based or organic/evolutionary/gentle-persuasion strategies of weaning away and my line is that - I have already concluded that weaning away is only possible under delegitimization and destruction of the theological institutional networks that sustain and reproduce jihad in various forms flexibly.
This weaning away can be done only by a superior countervailing force, with the backing of a modern state apparatus and allies, who are interested and are willing to put assets on the line to delegitimize and destroy the sunni theologic institutional networks. Where are these opposing social, theological, political and military forces? It is fine to lay these principles down in isolation and many folks have been through the whole cycle of Islamism and what they mean - I think very few would disagree with your views on Islamism alone on this board,. But these principles need some semblance of reality to come to fruition. The realities on the ground are so far off from the ideals you present that it is baffling for small minds, like mine, to comprehend the journey and the path you envision.

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For Pakistan, as I have repeated many times before, therefore, my projection was destruction of all the powers, structures and therefore the state - which protect and backup the mullahcracy and the institutional mechanisms.
I am sure you have heard of the term , "if you break it - you own it". It is not like we can afford to do what dumb Americans can afford to such as come in bomb and kill a few 100,000 people and then go back home after a a decade and ask, who is next? Even if we somehow muster the power to break TSP, we will then have the responsibility of owning it. Before we acquire something new, we first have to ensure that we are able to manage, what we currently own. In most peoples view, the Indian republic itself is still a work in progress and has not come out in flying colors and hence trying to own up to new responsibilities at this time or in the foreseeable near future (20-50 years), would be premature.

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Without soverignty neither the choice nor the protection of choice can be ensured. I would also like to destroy the very structure on which mullahcracy stands in alliance with feudalism and the army - by promising land redistribution and implementing it too.


True, without absolute control, you may not be able to guarantee certain outcomes and have to be able to manage outcomes to certain acceptable degrees, from the outside. Land redistribution is a laudable goal but no magic panacea in a country with a burgeoning population and increasing urbanization, who's issues are not non-similar to the issues we have. It is not land that a new generation looks forward to as its source of wealth, it is industry, education and jobs.

So, at question here is not not the ideals you set but the path you may undertake to achieve the same. I asked about UCC as a question to make the point that if the Indian polity cannot muster the courage, due to the muslim population veto, to enforce a uniform view of its own laws (even if faulty, IMO) , on its own population then pray how will it muster the wherewithal to consume entire geo-political constructs. Your answer was, once TSP is destroyed, things like the UCC will follow quickly. IMO, that is like putting the cart before the horse and did not answer my question. The Indian state is not strong enough yet, to undertake a venture such as the consummation of TSP. The need of the hour is to strengthen this (Indian) state and more so the social structures of the nation.

PS: Edited for some clarity.


Last edited by ShauryaT on 01 Apr 2012 03:50, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: 01 Apr 2012 03:31 
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ShauryaT wrote:
I am sure you have heard of the term , "if you break it - you own it".


If I may ask some naive questions here: could you explain why this is the case for us? It is not obvious to me why we cannot help 'break' Pakistan, then walk away and let the pieces descend into civil war.

I assume that a consensus/majority in GoI see this as unacceptable because of the risks and costs, but again these are not clear to me. I'd guess that the biggest risk would be the fate of Paki nukes; but aside from that? Is it that GoI fears the potential refugee problem? Given that the India-Pak border is heavily militarized, I don't see why refugees couldn't be contained outside the country. And I doubt that GoI thinkers are seriously constrained by humanitarian concerns for the fate of our Eastern neighbors. What are the other costs and risks for India of a break-up of Pakistan?

So I guess my question is: why not (help to) break Pakistan (we only need help since they are doing an excellent job themselves) and then have nobody own it? For clarity: what I mean by 'break' is literal - secession, civil war, military action directed inwards at emergent factions and states out of an erstwhile Pakistan.


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PostPosted: 01 Apr 2012 03:49 
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ShauryaT wrote:
brihaspati wrote:
The difference from the so-called trade-based or organic/evolutionary/gentle-persuasion strategies of weaning away and my line is that - I have already concluded that weaning away is only possible under delegitimization and destruction of the theological institutional networks that sustain and reproduce jihad in various forms flexibly.
This weaning away can be done only by a superior countervailing force, with the backing of a modern state apparatus and allies, who are interested and are willing to put assets on the line to delegitimize and destroy the sunni theologic institutional networks. Where are these opposing social, theological, political and military forces? It is fine to lay these principles down in isolation and many folks have been through the whole cycle of Islamism and what they mean - I think very few would disagree with your views on Islamism alone on this board,. But these principles need some semblance of reality to come to fruition. The realities on the ground are so far off from the ideals you present that it is baffling for small minds, like mine, to comprehend the journey and the path you envision.

The only reality that prevents the journey and path - at this stage - without initiative and prepartion for that journey and path, is the character of the current Indian rashtra (but not its nation-jaati). A nation is a more fundamental entity than the rashtra which is its coercive superstructure. Superstructure changes, mutates, gets destroyed, gets rebuilt, but the nation-jaati continues. We happen to be burdened with a colonial imperial setup, practically speaking lock-stock-and-barrel with cosmetic changes in form but no practical change in the underlying ideology of the rashtryia machinery - whose continuation and survival was ensured by the non-revolutionary non-overthrow patronized power-transfer by imperialism. Therefore that inherited rashtra shaped the subsequent politics and politicians as much as the politicians thought they were shaping the rashtra.

Realizing what a problem is before the jaati - is the first step in statecraft. Realizing what the problem is does not automatically imply that we have to surrender to that problem.

Quote:
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For Pakistan, as I have repeated many times before, therefore, my projection was destruction of all the powers, structures and therefore the state - which protect and backup the mullahcracy and the institutional mechanisms.
I am sure you have heard of the term , "if you break it - you own it". It is not like we can afford to do what dumb Americans can afford to such as come in bomb and kill a few 100,000 people and then go back home after a a decade and ask, who is next? Even if we somehow muster the power to break TSP, we will then have the responsibility of owning it. Before we acquire something new, we first have to ensure that we are able to manage, what we currently own. In most peoples view, the Indian republic itself is still a work in progress and has not come out in flying colors and hence trying to own up to new responsibilities at this time or in the foreseeable near future (20-50 years), would be premature.

Every nation is always a work in progress. There are things that a jaati has to do simultaneously, without waiting for one task to be entirely completed before another. If you are seeking prosperity and supposed unity before everything else - you will have to wait for infinity. For desire for prosperity is never satisfied, and there will always be small-hearts jealous of more deserving others to spoil unity. Indian powers have broken that area before and owned it also. Prosperity or unity or resoureces to mount a campaign and hold a area - all are realities of tactics, which are meaningless if first the strategic vision of breaking and owning is not established. I am only trying to establish that starting resolve.

Preparing for war and expansion shapes a country's economic growth, its social reconstruction and realignment, even without actually going to war.

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Without soverignty neither the choice nor the protection of choice can be ensured. I would also like to destroy the very structure on which mullahcracy stands in alliance with feudalism and the army - by promising land redistribution and implementing it too.


True, without absolute control, you may not be able to guarantee certain outcomes and have to be able to manage outcomes to certain acceptable degrees, from the outside. Land redistribution is a laudable goal but no magic panacea in a country with a burgeoning population and increasing urbanization, who's issues are not non-similar to the issues we have. It is not land that a new generation looks forward to as its source of wealth, it is industry, education and jobs.


No, land-reforms is a tactical Dandi-march move, and I am entirely aware of its inadequacy to satisfy demand. Whenever I have talked of this, I have mentioned this as a tactical move to force the real power in the Paki state - the mullahcracy+army+feudals - to come out in the open and oppose it. Moreover, the "reality" of Pakistan in its non-urban majority population is still about land.

Quote:
So, at question here is not not the ideals you set but the path you may undertake to achieve the same. I asked about UCC as a question to make the point that if the Indian polity cannot muster the courage, due to the muslim population veto, to enforce a uniform view of its own laws (even if faulty, IMO) , on its own population then pray how will it muster the wherewithal to consume entire geo-political constructs. Your answer was, once TSP is destroyed, things like the UCC will follow quickly. IMO, that is like putting the cart before the horse and did not answer my question. The Indian state is not strong enough yet, to undertake a venture such as the consummation of TSP. The need of the hour is to strengthen this state and more so the social structures of the nation.


I am a supporter of UCC. But among many other factors the primary reason UCC is not happening is because the rashtra with all its force [ultimately it means its coercive force] including the apparatus of education and thought control - sees it absolutely necessary to protect exclusive identities as a fundamental requirement for continuance of personal power.

Indian rashtra is one more example of making the apparatus of state power dependent on the apparatus of personal power. In this, it is crucial to prevent the unification of the whole jaati into one mobilizing identity - so that distinct identities will run to the glorious individual, preferably hereditary (so that the coteries that develop have some stable profit extraction future), to resolve their disputes. This making the jaati split into factions dependent on individual rulers - necessitates delegitimizing in order of numerical strength - the larger identities, so that the jaati does not develop its own set of values independent of ruler's prerogatives on values.

Its this rashtryia power setup that prevents your desired for UCC.

In this setup preservation of Pak is a crucial aspect too. I have described many time sbefore why a surviving Islamist Pakistan is good for congrez-left type politics. They can then play the swing threat of siding with Islamists against non-Muslims, or with non-Muslims against Islamists. Its all for preserving personal power.

Methods or the path are obvious. It is very legitimate to start off with, and will evolve depending on how the colonial-inherited-rashtra-led by vacuum ideologues serving apparatus of personal power - react in coercion or not. Starting off with cultural unification with the clear consciousness of transformation of the rashtra towards expansion and necessity of coercion on hostile forces, and a rejection of values represented by Islamists and similarly aligned or sympathetic forces.

That area is ours. The process of absorption itself is calculated to generate resistance from those we want to resist us and provide all the right reasons for us to liquidate them. Population is not a problem.


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PostPosted: 01 Apr 2012 05:16 
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brihaspati wrote:
Methods or the path are obvious. It is very legitimate to start off with, and will evolve depending on how the colonial-inherited-rashtra-led by vacuum ideologues serving apparatus of personal power - react in coercion or not. [b]Starting off with cultural unification with the clear consciousness of transformation of the rashtra towards expansion[/b] and necessity of coercion on hostile forces, and a rejection of values represented by Islamists and similarly aligned or sympathetic forces.
There is agreement in the above view. There is a political slide going on for about 1000+ years and it will take time to first consolidate, unify and then expand. IMO, we are at a pre-consolidation stage, where the first battle is to fight to change the slogan "unity in diversity" to "diversity in unity". There is a world of a difference in the meanings of the two slogans. The first puts its emphasis in diversity and not our cultural unity. The latter has its emphasis in this cultural unity, while accepting its diverse strands. In India at this time, the battle for a change in this mind set has not even begun in earnest. Indeed, I fear that the trajectory is towards a deracinated view of ourselves and one extrapolation of the current trajectory may again land up this nation as a colonized nation or a claw of some other crab.


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PostPosted: 01 Apr 2012 05:53 
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Kamboja wrote:
If I may ask some naive questions here: could you explain why this is the case for us? It is not obvious to me why we cannot help 'break' Pakistan, then walk away and let the pieces descend into civil war.
Our great power ambitions cannot be fulfilled without some level of control over the sub continent and its affairs. Amongst, these include at a minimum a certain level of peaceful control over borders (and it takes two sides to do that), non-enemity towards existence of the other state or peaceful co-existence, economic integration, a shared system of procedures and systems to resolve disputes and issues. India is a virtual island. It will be far difficult to export our formidable hard and soft products to the countries in the Asian land mass without this access. As long as India remains weak and our geo-poltical options constrained, it leaves the scope open for other powers to play in our natural spheres of influence and domination, which is the IOR and the land mass about a 1000 miles in all directions from current borders. The Indian republic has way too many mistakes in the past to severely cripple this vision, chief among them was to allow TSP to go nuclear. This vision is not mine alone, it was articulated by JLN in 1948! (not in the same manner maybe).

Any other region of Pakistan is not self sufficient to stand on its own, except for Pakjab. Pakjab has the wherewithal to dominate the others, as it does now. This is the reason an implosion theory is never taken very seriously amongst planners. So, if you break it, you own it. For the moment you walk away, the previous owners simply walk in again.

What you also have to remember is that these regions have contiguous historical social and economic links with the other. The Durand and Radcliff lines are artificial. It is not like, you can exploit a Vietnam-China 1000 year enmity. Baluchis and Mohajirs dominate major parts of Sindh. The Pashtuns dominate Quetta. South Punjab (Multan) and North Sindh can veritably be called a separate region (Saraiki) who are tied at the hip. So, what and who will you separate further.

A peaceful neighborhood is essential for even controlled and managed growth. Do not forget, who were the most vociferous opposition to Parakram. It was the business community in India.


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PostPosted: 01 Apr 2012 06:56 
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ShauryaT wrote:
brihaspati wrote:
Methods or the path are obvious. It is very legitimate to start off with, and will evolve depending on how the colonial-inherited-rashtra-led by vacuum ideologues serving apparatus of personal power - react in coercion or not. [b]Starting off with cultural unification with the clear consciousness of transformation of the rashtra towards expansion[/b] and necessity of coercion on hostile forces, and a rejection of values represented by Islamists and similarly aligned or sympathetic forces.
There is agreement in the above view. There is a political slide going on for about 1000+ years and it will take time to first consolidate, unify and then expand. IMO, we are at a pre-consolidation stage, where the first battle is to fight to change the slogan "unity in diversity" to "diversity in unity". There is a world of a difference in the meanings of the two slogans. The first puts its emphasis in diversity and not our cultural unity. The latter has its emphasis in this cultural unity, while accepting its diverse strands. In India at this time, the battle for a change in this mind set has not even begun in earnest. Indeed, I fear that the trajectory is towards a deracinated view of ourselves and one extrapolation of the current trajectory may again land up this nation as a colonized nation or a claw of some other crab.


The trajectory appears to go awry for the very fact that we accept the thesis of "development to n-th degree first, n unspecified" thrust upon us. It is those others, [including JLN] who pushed the mythically reconstructed Asokan ideal of "giving up on coercion" and "power projection beyond imposed borders", and "prosperity first" - who had wanted us to be the honeybee who would gather the honey for the looters to tap periodically.

Pakis and the Chinese have gone for military power first and development as secondary [Maoist China was primarily a military armed camp on a nationwide scale], and Pakis still manage to force posters here to acknowledge that "nothing can be done to them on the coercion front" and that they can continue to do 26/11's. So military capacity building to the extent that others can be selectively prevented from hurting - does not have to depend on the gazillions of prosperity first theory.

By accepting the western, JLN-esque, and later congrez-leftie theory of disjointing expansive and coercive strategies from development and prosperity - we have played solidly into the western and Islamist game of keeping India as the honeycomb - whose busy bees would store honey for the periodic tapping by their otherwise dud and unproductive but looting-psyche populations.For this it is important to keep Indians accumulating first and not simultaneosuly increase their power projection in a territorial and physical sense.

Indian accummulation will help preserve the Jihadis on behalf of the ME expansion schemes and basically maintain western mercenaries from Islamist origins to be unleashed on the subcontinent. This is a costless way on the part of west, and particularly perhaps the Brit line of thinking - to maintain the jihadi capacities on the shoulders of India.


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PostPosted: 02 Apr 2012 04:38 
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The RAPEs are very confused now. Their ancestors converted to keep the power and jagirs. The Brits came and these folks adopted Wastern norms. They jumed on TSP bandwagon thinking that will preserve their power and pelf.
Now TSP is sinking into Islum and they wonder what is the compulsion to keep the conversion which as only an expedient for survival. The big question is how and when to get out of the Islamic forceful conversion.


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PostPosted: 02 Apr 2012 07:14 
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ramana wrote:
The big question is how and when to get out of the Islamic forceful conversion.

Ramana It may be deeper than that. The conversion comes with the compulsion that questioning one's own beliefs or opposing them leads to pain. It's like attitudes put in childhood about fearing dogs or snakes. The fear is deep and primaeval. There is very real fear of questioning one's own beliefs because that questioning is associated with all sorts of pain and suffering. So the focus is never on the discomfort of changing what's inside, but only on saying that what is outside - that is the others, the kafirs are wrong and if they changed (converted) all would be well.

It is a very very robust model and not amenable to easy solutions.


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PostPosted: 02 Apr 2012 07:35 
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During British times quite a few went to England and changed over to Christianity. No fatwa/watwa in those days for they couldn't deal with UK!
So its a case of bending before greater power.


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PostPosted: 02 Apr 2012 08:33 
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shiv wrote:
ramana wrote:
The big question is how and when to get out of the Islamic forceful conversion.

Ramana It may be deeper than that. The conversion comes with the compulsion that questioning one's own beliefs or opposing them leads to pain. It's like attitudes put in childhood about fearing dogs or snakes. The fear is deep and primaeval. There is very real fear of questioning one's own beliefs because that questioning is associated with all sorts of pain and suffering. So the focus is never on the discomfort of changing what's inside, but only on saying that what is outside - that is the others, the kafirs are wrong and if they changed (converted) all would be well.

It is a very very robust model and not amenable to easy solutions.
True. There is one sure shot solution though and that is effective state control. Control that forces this change through acts of coercion, carrots and sticks. Ofcourse this has to be accompanied by all kinds of ideological psy-ops. But the key point is the issue has to be forced. We talked about this in your old Islamism threads. A modern version of this soft coercion is the American assimilative model, that was vibrant till the 70's and is still largely in place today.

Also, if you notice Indian history, none of the major confederacies made a serious attempt at such a coercive model. Neither the Marathas nor the Sikhs. The only time we have had some proven success is in 1947 in Punjab - on both sides - but this was not just coercion, it was brute force. Something that cannot be replicated or duplicated at a mass scale.


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PostPosted: 02 Apr 2012 11:24 
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shiv wrote:
ramana wrote:
The big question is how and when to get out of the Islamic forceful conversion.

Ramana It may be deeper than that. The conversion comes with the compulsion that questioning one's own beliefs or opposing them leads to pain. It's like attitudes put in childhood about fearing dogs or snakes. The fear is deep and primaeval. There is very real fear of questioning one's own beliefs because that questioning is associated with all sorts of pain and suffering. So the focus is never on the discomfort of changing what's inside, but only on saying that what is outside - that is the others, the kafirs are wrong and if they changed (converted) all would be well.

It is a very very robust model and not amenable to easy solutions.

That is only if you consider the human being to be not much more than a stimulus-response animal. The fact is otherwise. Introduced to a proper spiritual process, all such primeval fears can be overcome. The universal solvent is communication. That is where a spiritual and cultural aspect of Indian soft power projection is very important.

Of course, for this process to have any chance of working, a safe atmosphere is necessary. That means a greater power (political and coercive) has to replace the jihadist street power. The jihadist dogs have to be put to sleep or at least chased away to the outskirts of the settlements.


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PostPosted: 02 Apr 2012 12:59 
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ShauryaT wrote:
I am sure you have heard of the term , "if you break it - you own it".

If we break it, we own it. But if we own it, we ought to have the leeway to break it even more, and squeeze the venom out of its body. Who is to say, what "owning" means?

OT, but if any Westerners protest, we can always say, they are more than welcome to send their soldiers to Pakistan to restore "order", in other words to "share the ownership"! Who else is going to come in?


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PostPosted: 02 Apr 2012 13:20 
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shiv wrote:
ramana wrote:
The big question is how and when to get out of the Islamic forceful conversion.

Ramana It may be deeper than that. The conversion comes with the compulsion that questioning one's own beliefs or opposing them leads to pain. It's like attitudes put in childhood about fearing dogs or snakes. The fear is deep and primaeval. There is very real fear of questioning one's own beliefs because that questioning is associated with all sorts of pain and suffering. So the focus is never on the discomfort of changing what's inside, but only on saying that what is outside - that is the others, the kafirs are wrong and if they changed (converted) all would be well.

It is a very very robust model and not amenable to easy solutions.

Actually the solution is straightforward.

The solution is about taking the issue of religion completely out of the equation. Don't make it an issue of Islam. If one keeps on hammering each and every Muslim kabila, tanzeem, warlord, mafia boss, crushing them and ultimately humiliating them for their lack "strength", the fear would disappear. If one takes away every muscle that protects the Islamic mind, the Islamic model collapses.

The essence of Islam is Allah-endowed power at the personal, communal, local and national level.

If one breaks and humiliates each and every single center of power, the howva dissipates. In order to destroy power bases of others, one need not make it an issue of religion, which would consolidate those power bases, one can keep it an issue of "struggle of power between rival groups"!


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PostPosted: 02 Apr 2012 15:29 
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During British times quite a few went to England and changed over to Christianity. No fatwa/watwa in those days for they couldn't deal with UK!
So its a case of bending before greater power.


This is true. Fear and Power keeps most in Islam. Without these 2 Islamism means nothing. The wielders of power in an Islamic state must have Power and the capacity to generate Fear. When the liberal left gives equal status and rights to the Islamist to preach and practise, the liberal left also condemns a vast majority within the Islamic community who could get out, but now cannot. Thus the liberal left helps sustain the fear of the Islamist. Non Islamic societies at large should realize this.


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PostPosted: 03 Apr 2012 08:49 
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Went Sunday to Agra. Red Fort was full of Afghan National Army officers strolling around and doing some tourism. Almost all were 35+ years of age tending towards 45+. Must have been more than 25 to 30 officers.

Got a photo with them! :mrgreen:

Looks like our contact and training program with ANA is going well. :D


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PostPosted: 12 Apr 2012 17:04 
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Cosmetic Diplomacy
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How many times have we seen Indian and Pakistani leaders meet, say nice things, pledge their efforts to peace, and witness little change on the ground? There is cricket diplomacy initiated by Gen. Zia-ul-Haq in the mid-1980s when he invited himself to an India-Pakistan Test match in Jaipur and during the lunch period had a chat with Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. Last year Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani watched the World Cup India-Pakistan semi-finals in Chandigarh and had an hour with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Now President Asif Ali Zardari and son Bilawal conducted “dargah diplomacy” — a pilgrimage to Ajmer Sharif with a lunch break in Delhi with the Indian Prime Minister. Despite all the good intentions, these informal meetings have produced little and the Delhi detour on April 8 by the Zardaris will go down as another instance of cosmetic diplomacy that looked good, achieved little.

The supposedly new wrinkle of allowing bilateral trade and economic cooperation to take off even as the more contentious issues, such as Kashmir, are dealt with at a more deliberate pace in negotiations by diplomats trained to work at snail speed, is not new. This is the path India and China have taken, and Delhi has been trying to push Islamabad towards it for over a decade, finally with some success. It is fortuitous that Beijing, worried about the ring-fencing of China by many Asian states in cooperation with the United States, is eager to distance Delhi from Washington by incentivising non-involvement in such a containment scheme. And for this purpose is encouraging Islamabad to establish an economic nexus with India. Whatever the motivations, Pakistan has decided to confer the Most Favoured Nation status on India, a privilege Delhi had accorded Pakistan in 1996, which the latter did not have the wit to exploit. The question is if Kashmir — a core issue for Pakistan — is sought to be set aside, is Delhi’s main concern — Pakistan-based terrorist gangs operating without any official hindrance — also to receive the same treatment?

A sometime press adviser to the Prime Minister, Sanjaya Baru, has written about how Dr Singh got many things right in terms of symbolism and friendly gestures in his attempts to rev up the rapprochement process with Gen. Pervez Musharraf-led Pakistan during 2004-07. But he stopped short of revealing just why Dr Singh, on the cusp of ushering in enduring peace in the subcontinent on the basis of a Kashmir accord he had negotiated with Gen. Musharraf in 2006, got cold feet, refused to sign the deal and squandered a great opportunity that may never come again. Gen. Musharraf was desperate for that agreement, as it would have strengthened his hold on the Pakistani state, bolstered his political standing at home, kept at bay those asking him to surrender his position as Pakistan’s Army chief and impressed the Pakistani people with his achievement of getting India, for the first time, to concede an albeit slight role to Pakistan in overseeing the affairs of Jammu and Kashmir. Gen. Musharraf was satisfied because he craved some such role, however hollow.

A unique mix of tactical finesse, strategic blindness and political opportunism, Gen. Musharraf, as head of state, Army Chief and virtual dictator of the country, would have committed Pakistan to a treaty the Pakistani military could not have easily wriggled out of.

Dealing with a one-point source of power is always easier. But as a Musharraf-type of phenomenon is unlikely to recur in Pakistan any time soon, India will be compelled to deal with an elected government in Islamabad, which will always act with the inevitable veto by the Pakistan Army in mind. In the event, the dispute will continue to simmer, and occasionally come to a boil.

The Indian government’s concern with Pakistan’s “internal political dynamic” and the desire to settle outstanding disputes only with an elected government in Islamabad is, as I have repeatedly argued over the last 20-odd years, the cross this country has had to bear at a progressively higher strategic cost. Whether Pakistan is a democracy or not is the Pakistani people’s business. But the sooner Delhi gives up the idea that a democratically-elected government in Islamabad is somehow better, more amenable, from the point of view of shutting down terrorist activity than a military regime, the better it will be in terms of acknowledging the basic reality in Pakistan, and adjusting to it. An unpacified neighbour who has discovered the joys of brandishing the terrorist stick against India, moreover, is like a child playing with fire — fascinated by its heat and light rather than thinking about how it could burn down his own home. Retaliation against Pakistan in response to terrorist acts, according to national security adviser (NSA) Shivshankar Menon, is unnecessary because, as he stated at an event sometime back, “Why kill a man who is committing suicide?”

The trouble is there’s no certainty that Pakistan, an ostensibly failed state, will actually implode as a very large part of the Indian establishment believes will happen, for purely self-serving reasons.
It helps the Indian government stay with status quo-ist policies that everybody’s got used to. In any case, whatever the nature of the dispensation in Islamabad, India will have to think up some imaginative ways to get the Pakistan Army off its terrorism hobby horse. All that the official and unofficial Indian squawking and bellyaching about Hafeez Saeed does is raise the nuisance value of the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba for the Pakistani generals. This is elementary stuff but it is something the Indian government, led by the ministries of external affairs and defence, finds hard to wrap its head around. So Delhi keeps missing opportunities and Indian diplomats and the military brass keep huffing and puffing about the threat ostensibly posed by Pakistan. But, to turn the NSA’s logic around, how is a man bent on suicide a danger to you?
The writer is a professor at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi


Does this mean, 26/11 could have been prevented?


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PostPosted: 12 Apr 2012 17:48 
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the right analogy is man dying of terminal disease and wanting to hasten it.


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PostPosted: 12 Apr 2012 18:45 
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Quote:
...But, to turn the NSA’s logic around, how is a man bent on suicide a danger to you?

Logic seems skewed, a person who is hell bent of committing suicide will kill himself, doesn't need any external help to hasten it. But just because a person is suicidal doesn't mean he can't hurt anyone or is harmless, in fact a suicidal person can be even more harmful if only the person so wishes, what is it to him? He is anyway dying, what goes his father if he makes up his mind to few others with him? Like we see in the US gunmen going on killing sprees before killing themselves?


Last edited by venug on 12 Apr 2012 18:58, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: 12 Apr 2012 18:50 
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venug wrote:
Quote:
[b]...But, to turn the NSA’s logic around, how is a man bent on suicide a danger to you? [\b][\quote]
Logic seems skewed, a person who is hell bent of committing suicide will kill himself, doesn't need any external help to hasten it. But just because a person is suicidal doesn't mean he can't hurt anyone or is harmless, in fact a suicidal person can be even more harmful if only the person so wishes, what is it to him? He is anyway dying, what goes his father if he makes up his mind to few others with him? Like we see in the US gunmen going on killing sprees before killing themselves?


What the Indian Political Elite fail to realise is that while a person killing himself through sleeping Pills is of little danger a suicide Bomber running towards or driving a bomb laden truck is clear and present danger to you. This is the major goof in the elite circles.


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PostPosted: 12 Apr 2012 19:21 
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Sindh-Balochistan Connection

In context of Zardari visit to India, perhaps we should consider the following perspective.

Sindhi-Baloch (Urdu: سندھی بلوچ) are Baloch tribes living in Sindh province of Pakistan. The term Sindhi Baloch refers to the Baloch people that migrated from Balochistan to Sindh and have assimilated with Sindhis. These tribes came originally from Iran and Balochistan, and settled in Sindh from the 16th century onwards. The Baloch of Sindh use Sindhi language as their mother tongue. It is estimated about 35 to 40% of Pakistani Sindhis are of Baloch origin.

The main Sindhi-Baloch tribes are as follows:
  • Ahmedani
  • Almani
  • Bijarani
  • Buledi
  • Bulfati
  • Chandio
  • Janwari
  • Jakhrani
  • Jagirani
  • Jiskani
  • Jamali
  • Jamot
  • Jarwar
  • Jatoi
  • Khoso
  • Kalpar
  • Kalmati
  • Lashari
  • Leghari
  • Magsi
  • Marri
  • Mazari
  • Mirani
  • Nizamani
  • Nutkani
  • Rind
  • Talpur
  • Umrani
  • Zardari

Of course there are some like Shireen Mazari and others who have sold out themselves to Pakistanism. But the above fact does provide another fault line for exploitation.

Some parallels in geopolitics that deserve attention are:
  1. Just like we see the plight of Sri Lankan Tamils cause a wave of sympathy and solidarity across the Palk Straits among the Indian Tamils, one could encourage a similar sentiment of sympathy and solidarity among the Sindhi Balochis living in Sindh for their brethren in Baluchistan.

    We also see that Pakistani Pushtun living in Pakistan (Sindhi Balochi living in Sindh) are willing to go and fight for liberation of Pushtun lands in Afghanistan (Baluchistan in Pakistan) under "occupation" of NATO (Pakistani Army). The analogy may have some weaknesses, but the fact is that the Baloch in Baluchistan have been victims of Pakjabi brutality and they need liberation.

    So we have to invest in the media in Sindh invigorating the sympathy and solidarity between Sindhis and Balochis.
  2. The current strong sentiment in Scotland in favor of independence also provides a lesson. The Scots don't want to live in a country where they are second fiddle and where they feel their resources like North Sea Oil are being exploited by the England. The Scots feel that as an independent country they would be able to reassert their economic independence and provide better for their people. Similarly the Sindhis feel that the wealth generated in Sindh gets lavished on Lahore and the Pakistani Army, whereas they get nothing.

    So even though there is a strong historical connection between England and Scotland, the Scots are still willing to go their own way. That is because they don't see themselves as a part of "comity of nations" or a "part of a big diversity", but rather as the younger partner which is constantly bullied and trampled over. Same is the case in Pakistan with Sindh.

    So we have to provide the Sindhis with a different future perspective - that as part of Pakistan they will never be able to leverage their assets and geographical position, but liberated from Pakjab the sky is the limit. As a Sindh-Baluchistan Union comes up independent of Pakjab (and Pushtunistan), they would become a wealthy nation. They will have the mineral wealth of Baluchistan, the fertility of the Indus Delta, and the long coast from India to the Gulf. They can provide India with access to Iran and to Central Asia, and thus generate prosperous themselves as well. It is in their favor to dump both Pakjab and Pakistani Army and to normalize relations with India.
  3. South Sudan has been able to win its independence from the Islamist North Sudan. It has taken well over 30 years of war, but they have been able to do it.

    I am bringing up this example because one often tends to say that East Pakistan was a special case because of its geographical distance from the power center in West Pakistan. Baluchistan, or for that matter, Sindh, cannot hope to achieve independence because of the geographical proximity to Pakjab.

    South Sudan had all the Oil and despite this North Sudan was forced to let it go. Similarly Sindh (and Baluchistan) have all the Access to Sea, and despite this Pakjab can be forced to let it go.

    The Sindhis too need to be provided with all the arms, training and intelligence they need to achieve their independence


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PostPosted: 22 May 2012 18:39 
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Reclaiming Pakistan Territory: Mohajirstan

Continuing from earlier.

X-Posting Kanishka's post from TIRP Thread

Mohajirs demand a seperate state.


Should this come about, Mohajirstan can provide connectivity between India and Baluchistan (also freed from Pakistan), thus giving us a land route to West and Central Asia.

They are demanding that all of Sindh below the 26°N should become Mohajir Suba.

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PostPosted: 22 May 2012 19:35 
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Actually only the Karachi-Hyderabad axis has Mohajirs in substantial numbers.


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PostPosted: 22 May 2012 19:41 
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Yes but Tharparkar District and some other areas have considerable Hindus, who may decide to go along with the Mohajirs if it in Indian interest, and allows India more influence there.


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PostPosted: 22 May 2012 20:25 
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are Morani, advani and mirchandani also sindhi-baloch?


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PostPosted: 22 May 2012 20:26 
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One should not forget that the mohajirs were the people who actually got off their green crescent asses in india and went to Pakistan and were the wellspring of anti-India hate. If we are willing to consider that the people they left behind in UP/Bihar are barely reconciled with india then welcoming mohairs is on the same plane as Aman ki Asha - ie high hopes.

But a sudden thought occurs to me. What the hell is Punjab? Punjab has an identity ONLY because the Sikhs made an empire of it. Otherwise Punjab was like equator, or Arctic. A region. A geographic area. The area was always under rule by someone else.

Pakistanism is supported by the migrant mohajirs and the non entity Pakjabis. Maybe Pakjab should be split between Sindh, Baluchistan and Pakthunistan? Why should Pakjabis survive as a separate entity? And to hell with mohajirs. They can have more than India. They can take the Indian ocean. Cool refreshing and the winds will bow the mofos to Arabia.


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PostPosted: 22 May 2012 21:26 
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Singha wrote:
are Morani, advani and mirchandani also sindhi-baloch?
Advani and mirchandani are not. Both would most likely be from Hyderabad areas of Sindh also known as Amils. The infamous LKA, was from Karachi but an Amil. Do not know about Morani. Anyways, most Baluchi tribes in Sindh are muslims. These are Hindu names.


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PostPosted: 22 May 2012 21:54 
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shiv saar,

almost all ethnic groups have been played by external powers or have sold themselves to foreign powers. Pakjabis don't want to play game with India, because they have the guns and a whole country to lord over. Pushtuns will not play game, because of the Talibanization and because of their racism. Sindhis could play, but they really are dhimmis and follow the Pakjabis even as they protest about the Pakjabis. Baluchis are too few.

Mohajirs are a potential partner, and we can use their relations in India as a lever. Doesn't mean we should not or cannot exploit other fault-lines.

There was this rumor that Altaf Bhai had asked India for sanctuary for his men. India had declined. So there is some potential there.


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PostPosted: 22 May 2012 23:58 
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Posted by Jhujar in TIRP Thread

Sindh cannot be divided ever
Code:
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/columns/22-May-2012/sindh-cannot-be-divided-ever

Quote:
PML-N Quaid Mian Mohammad Nawaz Sharif is the only leader of a national party, who has been categorical about how the PML-N considers division of Sindh equivalent to treason and how Pakistan's territorial integrity is linked to Sindh's borders not being tampered withOf late, we have all noticed that the signage for a separate province for Mohajirs is fast spreading in Sindh's big cities. We condemn such a movement and those forces who are actively assisting such a tehreek. Breaking Sindh in pieces would lead to bloodshed because every son and daughter of the soil would resist such a move peacefully. However, knowing the terrorist and fascists supporting such a movement, it is clear that our peaceful resistance would make us sitting targets for their firepower.There can be no distinction between any of them based on how new their entry has been in Sindh. Those who entered Sindh pre-Raja Dahir, post-Mohammad bin Qasim and post-1947 cannot be divided into bands of new and old Sindhis. It’s unheard of in the world to have separate provinces for immigrants, since by their very definition immigrants migrate to make their new homeland their home and not to carve it out into a separate home.


---------

Pakistan's Khalistan Movement has started.

As the economy of Pakistan goes downhill, people are going to come to the view that they do not get jobs because other ethnic groups corner all the sarkari jobs, as they have political power, they having their own province. The cries for a separate province for Mohajirs would only increase. When the state starts taking violent steps against the agitating masses, one would see a full-scale movement for independence even from the Mohajirs.


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PostPosted: 23 May 2012 00:03 
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Interesting time line:

Quote:
Those who entered Sindh pre-Raja Dahir, post-Mohammad bin Qasim and post-1947 cannot be divided into bands of new and old Sindhis.

And proceeds to say this:
Quote:

It’s unheard of in the world to have separate provinces for immigrants, since by their very definition immigrants migrate to make their new homeland their home and not to carve it out into a separate home.


Yet when the immigrants come and convert the locals they can demand a separate country for themselves and claim Westhaplian status despite the fact that the very basis of Treaty of Westpahlia is the irrelevance of the religion of the ruler and the ruled!


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PostPosted: 23 May 2012 00:50 
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RajeshA wrote:
As the economy of Pakistan goes downhill, people are going to come to the view that they do not get jobs because other ethnic groups corner all the sarkari jobs, as they have political power, they having their own province. The cries for a separate province for Mohajirs would only increase. When the state starts taking violent steps against the agitating masses, one would see a full-scale movement for independence even from the Mohajirs.


Ganja Badmash has sensed the Bharras from Sindh will finish the Djinnah project.
This is the right time Poaqjabi follow Auarganjebi Sunna and remove Zardari from this earthly burden and arranged his meeting with Beloved Begum Boneazir. Sindh cant regain its ancient glory of Dahir's reign till Zardari sacrifice himself. Poaqama or Obama, soon stat the Hangama. Keep eye on Briturds and their dealing with Altaf Bhai. They might bump him off to delay or stall the eventuality. Rich India will keep causing the fissures in Poaqabila.


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PostPosted: 23 May 2012 01:38 
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ramana wrote:
Interesting time line:

Quote:
It’s unheard of in the world to have separate provinces for immigrants, since by their very definition immigrants migrate to make their new homeland their home and not to carve it out into a separate home.


Good point Ramana Garu. Since TSPians claim they are the descendants of Arabs, Turks, CAsians, Persians - hence the very basis for creating TSP is untenable! In fact, the folks who wanted a separate homeland for the Mohamedans should have been sent to Arabia; which is truly center of action for the Islamic faith.


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PostPosted: 23 May 2012 07:02 
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Sindh's last set of rulers from whom the Brits got power by a degree of perfidy were the "Talpurs" a Baluchi clan whose descendants now rank among the Sindhi high caste. Sufism is/was big in Sindh and as far as my awareness goes, although Sufs originated in Shia Iran the do not differentiate between Sunni and Shia and pretty much form a third group that allows the creation of shrines from the graves of mentors, and incorporate an ability to give people an "artistic outlet" in the form of music and dance (within the bounds of Sufi shrines) unlike dry Arab Islam that technically forbids any "enjoyable art" presumably because even the worst art will divert minds from Allah (My my - how gripping must Allah be for that to be a rule? :lol: )

But with Sufi tradition being passed down a family line Sufism has also kept feudalism going. In Punjab at least that feudalism was broken by the new Deobandi-Wahhabi nexus of groups like tha LeT/Jamaat ud Dawa and the Lashkar-e Jhangvi.

I don't how resistant Sindhi culture and politics are to restrict the entry of Wahhabandism, but Sindh has a mix of Sindhis, Baluchis and Mohajirs especially in the Karachi region. And Karachi now has a lot of Pashtuns as well with their own unique culture and they run the transport business in shitland.

And Karachi holds 33% of Sindh's population and cannot be ignored.


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PostPosted: 26 May 2012 01:25 
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The calculation for Sindh is that the Karachi-Hyderabad axis contains about 40-50% of the population of Sindh. If you take the rest about 20% of the population is Hindu and growing. So a partition of Sindh along the Karachi-Hyderabad axis will be beneficial for the future.


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PostPosted: 26 May 2012 06:18 
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http://dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012\05\26\story_26-5-2012_pg1_1
Finally, It started .
Nawabshah bus ambush kills 7

All those killed are non-Sindhis
* Sindhu Desh Liberation Army claims responsibility for attack
* Pamphlets found on site say attack in revenge for JSMM leader’s killing
Quote:
NAWABSHAH: Gunmen on Friday shot dead seven passengers on a Swabi-bound bus on National Highway and wounded three others, police said.Around 50 passengers were on board when the bus came under attack at Rinn Shakh, near Qazi Ahmed Taluka of Nawabshah district.Deputy Superintendent of Police Sardar Khan Chandio said the Sindhu Desh Liberation Army had claimed responsibility for the attack. Pamphlets of the outfit claiming responsibility for the killings in revenge for Jeay Sindh Muttahida Mahaz (JSMM) leader Muzaffar Bhutto’s killing were found at the site of the attack.One body was shifted to the People’s Medical College Hospital in Nawabshah district, while the remaining six were moved to the Taluka Hospital Qazi Ahmed.The second driver of the bus, Lal Khan, told reporters that a passenger had boarded the bus from Sakrand. He had asked the driver to pull over at Rinn Shakh where his brother was waiting to get on the bus. “When the bus stopped, four armed men boarded the bus and opened fire, and later fled on two motorbikes,” Khan said.
Five people died on the spot, while two passed away at hospital. The deceased were identified as Haji Abdul Ghaffar Pathan (driver), Shahzad Hassan and Muhammad Makrab from Attock, Sameeullah Khan from Mianwali, Gulreb Khan from Swabi, Abdul Majeed and Arsalan Majeed from Taxila. One deceased could not be identified, while Qair, Tahir Ali and Ameer Ali were among the injured.According to witnesses, the attackers had been raising slogans that they had taken revenge for an attack on the Awami Tehreek rally in Karachi. Other witnesses said the assailants had said the attack was revenge for the murder of JSMM leader Muzaffar Bhutto, whose body was found from Hyderabad after 15 months of his disappearance.However, the bus cleaner, Nadeem Khan, said the attackers did not discriminate on if the victims were Sindhis or non-Sindhis. “They didn’t ask about anyone’s ethnicity. They climbed up and opened fire and fled while raising slogans.”Hyderabad Police Deputy Inspector General (DIG) Sanaullah Abbassi, who reached the site of the attack, told reporters that at least 25 bullet shells were seen around the bus. “The attackers fired inside and from outside the bus,” he said. The DIG said police could not say whether automatic weapons were used in the incident.The passengers who escaped the attack were shifted to a safe place, which the police authorities declined to reveal.A senior police officer said the incident could be an act of terrorism or sectarian violence. He further said police had launched a search operation to apprehend the killers.Meanwhile, President Asif Ali Zardari took notice of the incident and directed the authorities concerned
t


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PostPosted: 02 Jun 2012 03:34 
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RajeshA, Pak needs to face
Quote:
grenzsituation (border situation)
before they climb back from the brink.
And they will face that if US and PRC also face it in their own way.


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PostPosted: 07 Jun 2012 20:45 
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Continuing from "Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch" Thread

shyamd wrote:
I think Afghanistan will be the biggest test to Indian National security and thanks for pointing out demographics here which is extremely important. If we are going to win in Afghanistan it requires Pashtun participation, not just minorities. Hence why our aid program's are focused on Pashtun areas.


Winning or losing, all has to be seen from the lens of neutralizing Pakistan, according to various scenarios and criteria, discussed earlier.

I think India needs get in in Afghanistan with more ambition, ambition of development type. The fundamental question is to which region would the Pushtuns feel more attracted to - Northwards or Southwards. And I speak for all Pushtuns - in Afghanistan but also in Pakistan. If the Pushtuns see their destiny Northwards, then Pakistan can wave their unity goodbye. Then Pushtuns including in Pakistan would lean towards a unity with their Northern brothers to partake in the opportunities from the North. If however the pastures down south appear more bright to the Pushtuns then Pakistan can hope to keep their flock together.

Consider a scenario, Afghanistan becoming a hub of trade and mining, something like the Kurdish Regional Government area in Iraq. KRG's trade with Turkey in enormous and increasing.

Same way, if India enters Afghanistan and sets up a network of world-class highways linking Afghanistan to Central Asian Republics and Iran and at the same time ensures that Karachi dies off as a city and port, then Afghanistan would start leaning elsewhere encouraging the Pushtuns in Pakistan as well to look elsewhere.

We need to make Pakjab and Karachi poor first, so that Pushtuns can look elsewhere for their future.


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PostPosted: 07 Jun 2012 21:31 
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RajeshA wrote:


I think India needs get in in Afghanistan with more ambition, ambition of development type. The fundamental question is to which region would the Pushtuns feel more attracted to - Northwards or Southwards. And I speak for all Pushtuns - in Afghanistan but also in Pakistan. If the Pushtuns see their destiny Northwards, then Pakistan can wave their unity goodbye. Then Pushtuns including in Pakistan would lean towards a unity with their Northern brothers to partake in the opportunities from the North. If however the pastures down south appear more bright to the Pushtuns then Pakistan can hope to keep their flock together.


Same way, if India enters Afghanistan and sets up a network of world-class highways linking Afghanistan to Central Asian Republics and Iran and at the same time ensures that Karachi dies off as a city and port, then Afghanistan would start leaning elsewhere encouraging the Pushtuns in Pakistan as well to look elsewhere.

We need to make Pakjab and Karachi poor first, so that Pushtuns can look elsewhere for their future.

First Indians need to visit Afg in more numbers in safe areas. They need to interact with afg


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PostPosted: 07 Jun 2012 21:39 
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RajeshA, I think India should support greater Balochistan. By supporting Sindh aspirations, India keeps the PPP in power.
PPP should feel the Balochi nationalism.


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