Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

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Theo_Fidel

Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Theo_Fidel »

People forget Hiroshima and Nagasaki so fast......
....And people should have tried satyagrah against the SS & the Japanese.
----------------------------------------------------

The thing that annoys me is the half war / half peace attempts. If the west backs the rebels, it should come out and declare it so. It is this shyness that allows Al-Qaeda types to sneak in.
shyam
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by shyam »

habal wrote:An attack on southern Europe was predicted by some astrologer long time ago. Was it Nostradamus ? Muslims or someone from middle-east invading Vatican etc was predicted.
There is a response for this post in astrology thread
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 8#p1320128
Johann
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Johann »

Lets stay focused and sensible please.

The Syrian Baathists and the Assads have always been guided by realpolitik in their policies.

They want to save their regime, and failing that their lives and their wealth.

Using chemical weapons in some sort of overt or covert attack on civilians abroad would seal their *personal dooms. They have been reminded of this through multiple public and private channels.

If (and thats a big if) they survived the retaliation Russia certainly wouldn't take them, and even Iran would be reluctant.
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Johann »

This is worth reading for those who are convinced that the FSA and the civilian protesters as foreign creations are happy to accept orders from the the West, Turkey and the GCC.

http://www.kansascity.com/2012/07/31/37 ... ctors.html
shyamd
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by shyamd »

Current stage: civil war with the balance at the moment favouring the well armed Asad military. Then next stage is balance.

They have multiple mobile C4I units for small FSA formations. Then one large centre to get satellite intel to support major operations or large groups. This has been going on for many months now.

Looks like the large centre is in Inclirk itself as it has the operations centre for NATO southern flank.

Syrian revolutionary leadership will eventually calibrate operations with Western/Qatari/Turks and GCC/Jordan. But currently mainly fromTurkish - but will chaange once the Turks/West start putting conditions on the rebels. Source says turks don't do anything for free.

The Qatari SF team in Turkey - I'm hearing complaints of mismanagement of the whole process.

The telegraph article stating that Qatar has stopped workng with the FSA is incorrect I am told - its just one view of whats going on.
Virupaksha
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Virupaksha »

Johann wrote:This is worth reading for those who are convinced that the FSA and the civilian protesters as foreign creations are happy to accept orders from the the West, Turkey and the GCC.

http://www.kansascity.com/2012/07/31/37 ... ctors.html
My read of that article is different. It is a indication from US to Tlass's backers that it does not back Tlass and so its asking the backers to prefarably look somewhere else.

and Johann, you are again trying to knock down strawmans, which no one has said or implied. Where has anyone even implied that the civilian protestors are outside creations?

I would definitely like to know more about this source -Anwar Saadeddine, who has been outed.
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Pranav »

Theo_Fidel wrote: The thing that annoys me is the half war / half peace attempts. If the west backs the rebels, it should come out and declare it so. It is this shyness that allows Al-Qaeda types to sneak in.
That's like asking Pakistan to openly declare war and not rely on the LeT.
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Johann »

Virupaksha wrote: Johann, you are again trying to knock down strawmans, which no one has said or implied. Where has anyone even implied that the civilian protestors are outside creations?
I cant count the number of times that its been claimed that the Arab Spring is fake, and largely orchestrated by external forces.

That may not be your personal opinion, but its been said here at various times by various people.

What was the Arab Spring at its core other than huge numbers of civilian protestors demanding accountability and change from their governments?
My read of that article is different. It is a indication from US to Tlass's backers that it does not back Tlass and so its asking the backers to prefarably look somewhere else.
Actually the Americans and the French love Tlass. His sister has been a fixture in French elite circles for years.

He's perfect as a secular Sunni who could persude other generals to defect - in fact he is much more palatable to the West than anyone else.

The Syrians don't feel good about him because he went to Paris instead of directing military operations from the camps on the Turkish border. That is something they just despise. He didn't sacrifice enough or openly support the revolution early enough to deserve being catapulted to *the* leader of the revolution.
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Pranav »

3 hours ago, a tweet from reporter Jenan Moussa (@jenanmoussa), of Al Aan TV, Dubai, embedded with Al Qaeda / FSA around Aleppo.
In the last 5 minutes, I heard at least 6 explosions falling in/ close to town where we are. Crazy. #Syria @akhbar
Then, 28 minutes ago, another tweet -
Breaking: #libya long time reporter @jenanmoussa was killed in #Syria along side 4 #FSA terrorists. More details to come!
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by gunjur »

Syria Arrests Turkish Army General in Aleppo: Fars news :shock:

Would be interesting to see what would be the fallout if this is true.
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Pranav »

Gunjur wrote:Syria Arrests Turkish Army General in Aleppo: Fars news :shock:

Would be interesting to see what would be the fallout if this is true.
Press TV Aleppo correspondent tweets that the Turkish general may be released in exchange for 48 Iranian pilgrims kidnapped recently.

I hope any release occurs only after parading him before the media.
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by pgbhat »

Pranav wrote:3 hours ago, a tweet from reporter Jenan Moussa (@jenanmoussa), of Al Aan TV, Dubai, embedded with Al Qaeda / FSA around Aleppo.
In the last 5 minutes, I heard at least 6 explosions falling in/ close to town where we are. Crazy. #Syria @akhbar
Then, 28 minutes ago, another tweet -
Breaking: #libya long time reporter @jenanmoussa was killed in #Syria along side 4 #FSA terrorists. More details to come!
Kate J Chase ‏@Kate_ChaseRT @jenanmoussa: "reports of my death greatly exaggerated" RT Breaking: #libya long time reporter @jenanmoussa killed in #Syria.
:wink:
Pranav
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Pranav »

For the people of Aleppo, their only hope is Syria's security forces restoring order. In the pockets of Syria's largest city the so-called "Free Syrian Army" (FSA) has dug into, a campaign of systematic detention, torture, and mass murder has been carried out against "enemies of the revolution." Demonized as either "Shabiha" or "government supporters," men have been rounded up, lined up against walls, and gunned down en mass. Others await barbaric "drumhead trials" where FSA warlords deal out arbitrary justice under the guise of "Sharia law."

http://www.informationclearinghouse.inf ... e32094.htm
habal
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by habal »

Free Syrian Army

some 'Free Syrians'
Image
Image
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Philip »

The FSA's crimes againt Syrian Christians have been well reported,but who cares? They're Syrians after all and not worth a bean in the west's bean counting,as the pres. of "Christian" America sings on funding for military and financial aid and covert ops for the FSA!

If it is true that a Turkish general has been caught in Syria,it wouold be a huge coup for the Assad regime and acute embarrassment for the anti-Syrian combine.
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by gunjur »

Nothing new, but some sort of "official confirmation" that syria wont disintegrate.
US makes plans to keep post-Assad Syria intact
So pakistanization of syria (i.e. sunni wahabis causing havoc) will contiune with GCC $$. One needs to see if kurds are given leeway by allowing their own autonomous region or not??

But one thing different from iraq would be
The Bush administration's decision to disband Iraqi security forces, made shortly after the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, was a catalyst for the bloody civil war that followed.

The U.S. is indicating to the Syrian army that it does not want it to dissolve and those not directly involved in atrocities could be part of a successor regime.
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Pranav »

Gunjur wrote: The U.S. is indicating to the Syrian army that it does not want it to dissolve and those not directly involved in atrocities could be part of a successor regime.
It's a ploy to get army commanders to switch sides. Typically such promises will never be honored.
shyamd
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by shyamd »

Big escalation next week. SAMs will now be deployed as of next week. More later.
pentaiah
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by pentaiah »

You mean uncle SAM, but we are told they are already there? No!
shyamd
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by shyamd »

SAM's= surface to air missiles.
Last edited by shyamd on 08 Aug 2012 03:55, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by pentaiah »

Ok no surface to air missiles understood
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Johann »

http://www.arabnews.com/syria%E2%80%99s ... y-report-0

Image

This caught my attention - Muhammad Faris was a Syrian air force general, and only the second Arab in space. And he was from Aleppo.

Imagine Rakesh Sharma defecting to the Maoists and fleeing to China to get a sense of how cataclysmically the regime has lost respect and loyalty.

He was the kind of man who was treated as a hero by the regime, and returned with loyalty.

The regime simply can not keep losing stalwarts like this and survive.
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Pranav »

shyamd wrote:Big escalation next week. SAMs will now be deployed as of next week. More later.
Time for Kurds and Shias to deploy SAMs in Turkey and Saudi.
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Pranav »

Druze students return from Syria; say 'media exaggerating'
Dozens of Golan residents return home from studies in Damascus; some say security situation 'not as bad as depicted by press,' while others say 'we were in constant danger'

Hundreds of Druze from the village of Bukata in the Golan Heights welcomed back 80 students who returned from Syria Tuesday through the Quneitra Crossing.

Gadir Zuha, a med student, said she was very glad to return to Israel in good health. "It is true that while in Syria we were frightened and sometimes had to remain indoors, but we looked out for one another. From what I could tell, the Syrian people are not against (President Bashar) Assad."

Gadir said she plans to return to Damascus to continue her studies, "despite all that is going on there."

Some of the students told Ynet that the media's depiction of the situation in Syria is exaggerated, but another student said, "They are afraid to tell the truth."

Another student, Zahuha Tagdir, said the group was protected by the Syrian army. "I'm not deterred by all that I here about the situation in Syria, and I plan to return to Damascus to continue my studies," she said.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340 ... 29,00.html
Pranav
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Pranav »

Image
Naveed Ahmad
‏@naveed360
Thinking of dear Ahmad Askar who won shahadat in #Aleppo. While student in #Pakistan, we used to organise protests against #Syria dictator.

https://twitter.com/naveed360/status/233092268368728065
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by shyamd »

Just following on from my earlier post - 8 hours ago CJ Chivers posted this:

In Syria, Potential Threat to Government Air Power Emerges
By C. J. CHIVERS

Image
A complete SA-7 system shown in a screen grab from the Facebook profile of Obaida Elwani.
For the first time since the conflict in Syria began last year, an activist opposed to President Bashar al-Assad has publicly presented possible evidence that the antigovernment forces have obtained a heat-seeking, shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile.

The photograph at the top of this post, which was published on the Facebook page of Obaida Elwani on Tuesday, shows a complete SA-7 system, an early member of the Stinger class of weapons.

The image clearly shows the missile tube, its battery unit and the grip stock, which ties the system together and makes it possible to fire. Previously, at least one SA-7 missile tube and battery had been documented in the hands of anti-Assad forces. But this is the first time an entire system has been shown.

Caveats are in order, because it is impossible to tell from the Facebook page when and where the image was made. The image has been composed too tightly to confirm that it was shot in Aleppo, and the date is not clear. But if it is legitimate, it lends weight to a report last week by Richard Engel of NBC News about the alleged transfer over the Turkish border of nearly two dozen shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles to the rebels.

Whether the SA-7 in the photograph is functional, or how effective an SA-7 would be against Syrian military aircraft, is also unknown. The SA-7 is an old system; its heat-seeking head can be thwarted by countermeasures on many modern military aircraft. And fighters planning to use the system effectively would need training, including on how to select the best angles for attacking aircraft; it is not possible to tell from this image whether the system is in even reasonably competent hands. That said, Syria’s military helicopters, judging from the abundant footage of their activities in recent weeks, could be vulnerable to such weapons – even to old variants like the SA-7, which would also reasonably be expected to change Syrian pilots’ perceptions of the risks of sorties into areas where rebels with SA-7s are present.

In other words, this is potentially a development worth following as the battle for Aleppo grinds on.
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Pranav »

Syria rebels abandon frontline Aleppo district

(Reuters) - Syrian rebels fighting President Bashar al-Assad's forces in the city of Aleppo have abandoned their positions in a district that has been a frontline of fighting in recent days.

"We have retreated, get out of here," a lone rebel fighter yelled at Reuters journalists as they arrived on Wednesday in the Salaheddine district. A checkpoint that had been manned by rebel fighters for the last week had disappeared, its location marked only by an opposition flag.

Explosions could be heard as incoming gunfire hit buildings in the area. A Syrian government security source told Lebanon's Al-Manar television that Syrian forces were now in control of the Salaheddine district.

Helicopters flew over a police station that was still in rebel hands about 1 km (half a mile) away from Salaheddine. Fighters ran around in chaos shouting into walkie talkies: "The army has entered, the army has entered".

A rebel commander who identified himself as Abu Ali said he had received information that army tanks had entered Salaheddine, adding that he had little additional information because communications were bad.

(Reporting by Hadeel Al Shalchi; Writing by Tom Perry; Editing by Jon Boyle)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/ ... 9O20120808
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by shyamd »

U-turn as Iran admits its military are among Syria 'pilgrim' hostages
"Retired" members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards and army are among 48 Iranians taken hostage in Syria by rebels, Tehran has admitted.
Free Syrian Army soldiers guard a group of Iranians abducted a day earlier and promising more attacks on Iranian targets in Damascus, Syria Photo: AP

9:56AM BST 08 Aug 2012

In an embarrassing u-turn for Iran, which has always insisted that the hostages are pilgrims, Ali Akbar Salehi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, was forced to admit that military personnel are among them.

"A number of the (hostages) are retired members of the Guards and the army. Some others were from other ministries," he said on Weds.

But Mr Salehi stressed that the former military personnel were exclusively on a religious pilgrimage to Damascus when they were seized on Saturday.

Iranian officials had previously claimed the 48 Iranians were only pilgrims travelling to a holy Muslim site in Damascus. This was the first time that Tehran has admitted that any of them had a connection to its military.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the trip was arranged by the Samen al-Aemmeh agency, which caters only for members and families of Revolutionary Guards or the Basij, the Iranian loyalist militia.

On Sunday, Syrian rebels posted a video of the hostages and claimed they were members of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards on a "reconnaissance mission." Tehran denied the charge.

On its Facebook page, the rebel group on Monday said three of the Iranians had been killed in shelling by Syrian regime forces on their position.

It threatened to execute other hostages if the bombardment did not stop.

It was not possible to independently verify the deaths of the three Iranians. The fate of the other hostages was not known.

"Fortunately, in the video clip that was broadcast of these people, we see that these people are pilgrims and have no equipment other than clothes, personal items and identification cards," Mr Salehi said.

He said the 48 abducted were in one of three buses taking Iranians to the airport in Damascus on Saturday. "There were three buses, two of which reached the airport," he said.
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by pentaiah »

Ha, I posted the above in another thread

But where does the SA-7 come from? Not Russia not PRC but from the stockpile of Culinary Institute
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by shyamd »

Libya
Theo_Fidel

Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Shyam,

Those beefy looking 30-40 year olds do not look ‘retired’ to me. There is a trained menace about them. Note how the sit in an apparent regimental chain of command type of manner. It would not surprise me if substantial chunk of Assad army is now Iranian. This is probably the most loyal crowd. During the Iranian revolution put down, Shabiha of Arab appearance showed up in large numbers to brutally shoot and put down the protestors. This prevented the Iranian military from having to question its loyalty.

Image
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by pentaiah »

Thinking like Johann and saving him some typing.

"it is legitimate for Egypt to use air strikes against its citizens in Sinai but its gross violations of human rights and UN charter when Assad uses Su24 in attacking FSA"

And I trend to agree with all knowing Johann 8)
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Johann »

Pentaiah,

Thats very kind of you.

I will say that the Egyptian military's use of airpower is an indication of just how alienated the Bedouin population in the Sinai is from the military and the government.

I very much doubt President Morsi was allowed to review the operation before it took place. This is exactly why the military in Egypt can not be allowed to run defence policy independent of the new civilian head of state.

It hasn't got to the point yet where the Egyptian military is bombing Cairo and Alexandria though, and I doubt it ever will.
Last edited by Johann on 09 Aug 2012 01:10, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by ramana »

Nightwatch comments relevant to this thread

Aug 7th, 2012

Iran-Hezbollah: Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah received Iranian Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Saed Jalili in Beirut late on Monday. The press release said the men discussed the situations in Lebanon and Syria.

Comment: Beirut is Jalili's second stop, after Damascus, on what appears to be a fact-finding trip for the Iranian leadership. The ability of a senior Iranian security official to move in and out of Damascus with ease again raises the question of contrasts between media reporting and the real situation on the ground. Apparently diplomatic movements and air traffic in and out of Damascus are normal.

{Explains why SAMs suddenly make an appearance in Syria!!!}
For those analysts who this week suggested the Iranian crescent of friendly governments from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea has been broken, their conclusion seems premature.

For new analysts: The movements of diplomats and commercial air traffic are surer indicators of security conditions than fighting reports in the media. Commercial air traffic is one of the first activities to stop at the least sign of hostilities.

Thus, a good general indicator of the security situation in Aleppo that is not regularly available in open sources would be the status of commercial flight activity in and out of Aleppo. As of Sunday, it appeared to be normal, which would be unusual for a city that was "engulfed in fighting," as some news outlets reported.
Syria: Comment. Feedback directed NightWatch to a recent interview by retired US Major General Vallely with a senior leader of the Free Syrian Army (FSA). The interview produced a number of interesting comments by the Syrian opposition leader.

The FSA controls only 60% of the fighters. Al Qaida fighters represent less than 1% of the fighters. The others are Salafists and various extremists and some moderates. A US TV news reporter from the Pentagon this week said the Defense Department has identified nine different Sunni opposition groups.

The FSA leader said his force numbers 100,000 fighters but lacks arms. He said most weapons enter Syria from Turkey and lots are lost. The opposition requires arms. He said the FSA knows how to control al Qaida and expected the Muslim Brotherhood would become the political leader of a post-Asad government because of it is so well organized.

The FSA leader said the Syrian government forces, essentially the Alawite defense forces, number 100,000 fighters.

Comment: The numbers are important because force ratios, firepower and logistics determine the winner. The side with the most and best guns always wins in a violent internal security problem.

The force ratios the FSA leader stated signify that the FSA cannot win, as those ratios now stand, even without taking into account Syrian government firepower. On the other hand, with only 100,000 soldiers, assuming the figure is roughly accurate, the Syrian government cannot cleanse every major town of Sunni fighters.

Thus the security situation is chronic, but not terminal for either side.
For the government, the edge in Syrian government capabilities hinges on Russia. For the opposition, the supply line depends on Turkey. (The FSA leader probably should not have been so candid, assuming he was telling the truth.)

The FSA leader estimated that 50,000 Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) soldiers are assisting the Syrian forces, without providing evidence.

Comment: It is credible that a significant number of IRGC are in Syria, just as it is certain that American special forces are assisting the Syrian opposition, but in smaller numbers. The number of IRGC soldiers is significant because the Syrian opposition cannot win if Iran has committed 50,000 IRGC troops to Syria. That would represent a large well-trained force.

{Explains the Iranian hostage taking. To force Iran to withdraw its contingent. Next they will be killed to increase the pressure. For the opposition to win the Iranians have to be removed.}

Breaking apart the statements of the FSA leader, the FSA emerges as the most vocal of the opposition groups. It might be the largest, as it claims, but it is not the best armed. The numbers it claims to have mean that it stands no chance of overthrowing the Syrian government, as long as the Russians provide the supplies and Iran reinforces the Alawites. A one-to-one force ratio always favors the government, for obvious reasons.

The FSA leader was upbeat, but he failed to appreciate that his numbers undermined his optimism. No numbers are confirmed independently, of course. The only reason to credit some of his numbers is that the professional core of the Syrian Army was 140,000 two years ago, which included Sunni officers and soldiers. Considering defections by the Sunnis, a figure of 100,000 mainly Alawite and Baathist soldiers is credible. It also reinforces that the Alawite core remains loyal and responsive to central command and control.

There is no independent evidence that 50,000 IRGC are in Syria, but that number is well within Iranian capabilities, if the Tehran government has decided to defend Syria.

At the same time, the level of fighting in Syria in no way indicates there are 100,000 armed opposition fighters or that so many are under any chain of command or disciipline.

To put in perspective the significance of 100,000 fighters, in Iraq at the height of the insurgency, the Sunni fighters in Anbar Province had 100,000 fighters -- according to US reports about the number of monthly bribes paid to get them to stop fighting. They mounted and sustained 300 firefights and attacks a day against the 150,000 or so US armed forces almost indefinitely, until the money was paid.

The Syrian fighting is not close to that NightWatch benchmark, indicating there are far fewer opposition fighters than the FSA leader claimed.
Maybe the 100,000 is like the mythical 1000 year war that Paksi claim to fight!
Theo_Fidel

Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Assads latest foray in Aleppo ends after apparently 60+ soldiers took advantage of the fog of war to slip over to the opposition, Al Guardian reports. Couple of Air Force intel types, one a Colonel, moved over apparently. SAA commanders then reacted with anger and pulled the entire contingent out with orders to shoot any stragglers. Much equipment was left abandoned. FSA then reoccupied area they gave up.

Johaan, you are right about this. Every time SAA attempts to take action large chunks simply disappear into the country side. I don’t know how Assad breaks this dynamic. It is clear now most of the SAA has not been paid in months. Assad does not have the cash to pay them anymore. How does a professional army fight without pay…..
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by shyamd »

Theo_Fidel wrote:Shyam,

Those beefy looking 30-40 year olds do not look ‘retired’ to me. There is a trained menace about them. Note how the sit in an apparent regimental chain of command type of manner. It would not surprise me if substantial chunk of Assad army is now Iranian. This is probably the most loyal crowd. During the Iranian revolution put down, Shabiha of Arab appearance showed up in large numbers to brutally shoot and put down the protestors. This prevented the Iranian military from having to question its loyalty.
Iranians obviously need moral cover - as does any nation. Asad is using Mahdi army and Hezbollah and some IRGC as well as advisors ( a lot of advisors). Iranian intel is helping counter the psyops and media stuff too.

THere are a lot of iranians there anyway - engineers, signals, various parts of the military - due to Hezbollah.

Yes - in Iran - Hezbollah, Mahdi army were brought in.
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Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by shyamd »

Comments on Nightwatch - from Egypt to Libya they have got it completely wrong. In Libya they said the rebellion would be swiftly crushed. In Syria, they said its not a revolution etc. This is why no one respects the US intelligence analysts - they have failed in almost every major event in the region (by their own admission most of the time). They don't even understand tribes at all - which is extremely impoortant in that region.

As for IRGC - 50,000 - No chance imo. I'd say no more than 10-20k tops. But even then, most of these guys are busy elsewhere in Lebanon with Hezbollah doing various projects - tunnels, arms, advisors, signals and so on.

FSA - 100,000 troops - no this is a gross exaggeration that is used to scare the other side and get some defections and also to show to the international audience that they have the power etc. Just Psyops and mind games.

Nightwatch is correct about the quality of arms on either side.
pentaiah
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Posts: 1671
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by pentaiah »

It used to be 90% of the covert wars during cold war era were in SW radio broadcasts, VOA, Radio Moscow, Radio Beijing, Radio Deutsche Welle Radio Netherlands etc.

Now its Twitter, Blogs, and other social media but the effects are same propaganda and FUD propagation

No wonder billions of dollars spent on Intelligence is only in name but not in content.
We speak with Thomas Drake, who was targeted after challenging waste, mismanagement and possible constitutional violations at the National Security Agency, but the case against him later collapsed. Drake was one of several sources for a Baltimore Sun article about a $1.2 billion NSA experimental program called "Trailblazer" to sift through electronic communications for national security threats. "My first day on the job was 9/11. And it was shortly after 9/11 that I was exposed to the Pandora’s box of illegality and government wrongdoing on a very significant scale," Drake says. He alleged that the program was inefficient compared to a rival program called "ThinThread" and also violated Americans’ privacy rights. As a result, he faced 35 years in prison for charges under the Espionage Act, but was not ever actually accused of spying. Instead, he was accused of holding on to classified documents in his basement that he says he did not even know were classified.
This guy was on Daily Show Jason Jones investigation

http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episod ... 2-tim-gunn
Theo_Fidel

Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Theo_Fidel »

I don't believe these fantasies of a stalemate. These are the same ‘maroons’ who claimed Libya was a stalemate until the NTC strolled into Tripoli and found no Gadaffi regime present. Even after Gaddafi was gone these mooks claimed he would destabilize the country and the Qudhafa tribe was on the warpath, blah blah blah…..

Remember those million man Gaddafi rallies or the wild claims that 2 million Libyans supported Gaddafi. All of it horse tripe. Several now thundering posters on this very thread posted that exact same nonsense. Honestly people should be tired of being so vociferously wrong every time.

It annoys me no end that as a nation we are consistently on the wrong side of history. This is what weakens us leaves us in our whiny moralizing piss ant corner. Lack of realism hurts us big time. For once I would like India and Indians to be on the winning side of stuff and show the spine and testicles to exploit the situation for our benefit.

Cue the posts on Libya going sideways and Gaddafi coming back from the grave.....
Paul
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3801
Joined: 25 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

Post by Paul »

As said a while ago on this forum, in the long run the anti-israeli strategy is falling in place, the arab sea will swallow the crusdaer garrison state of Israel like like the Mamalukes in the middle ages.

Hope the anglo-saxons realize what they are doing..
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