Afghanistan News & Discussion

[shyamd]

Mission Afghanistan

ANANTH DURAI 15 March 2013 Subjects:Afghanistan India Security in South and Central Asia Peacebuilding Policing Bordering on Peace?
India must take on a global leadership role, providing both economic and military aid together with regional/global partners, in support of the Afghan government.

The recent visit of Afghan president Hamid Karzai to India has highlighted the strong and growing cooperation between the two countries. Since the toppling of the Taliban regime in 2001, India has offered close to $2 billion in mostly economic and humanitarian aid. The signing of a strategic partnership agreement in 2011 paved the way for deepening bilateral relations. The Indian government's Public Sector Units (PSU) consortium won a large mining concession in Hajigak, an investment that will lead to the construction of a steel mill – and that some estimate in the region of $8 billion. India has also paid in blood for the stability and support of Afghanistan, most recently in an attack on Indian Army doctors.

But what exactly is India’s game plan in Afghanistan? To answer this, we need to understand the regional picture.

All quiet on the northern front

India has had tremendous success in eliminating terrorists inside Jammu and Kashmir state (J&K) over the last five years with intelligence reports appearing to indicate frustration among the ranks of the terrorists at the lack of support by the Pakistani authorities for their war in Kashmir. Terror attacks are at an all time low and have been low in the last three years in J&K. Tourism to the state has reached record levels (9 million visitors as of October 2012) and progress is being made economically in the lives of ordinary citizens in the region.

During 2012, Indian police received over 1000 amnesty applications from youths who had crossed over to Pakistan at the height of the insurgency from J&K for arms training, wishing to return to India and rebuild their lives. This has been encouraged by cutbacks in Pakistani funding for Kashmiri organisations, as well as the futility of terrorist activity.

Unfortunately all this success cannot be attributed to Indian diplomacy, so much as to the regional geopolitical situation. Evidence arising from the interrogation of terrorists under arrest supported by intelligence reports suggest that the Pakistani establishment appears to be encouraging Kashmiri groups to turn their gaze towards fighting US/ISAF troops in Afghanistan. This is supported further by numerous arrests and intelligence reports from the ISAF in Afghanistan. It is no secret that Pakistan continues to provide support/sanctuary to the Taliban and its allies such as the Haqqani network.

We can conclude as a result that Pakistani efforts and priorities appear to be lie in securing its ‘backyard’ and ensuring that the ISAF/US forces vacate Afghanistan, paving the way for the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, post 2014.

But why? The main reason appears to be to put a stop to Pashtun nationalism thereby also ensuring that the current Afghan security establishments don’t become a further tool to be used against Pakistan, forcing them to deploy their armies in the defence of two borders.

So what is India doing to prevent a Taliban takeover in Afghanistan?

India is following a three-fold approach:

- Training Afghan National Security Forces to fight the Taliban.
- Encouraging economic investment in the Afghan government to enable them to raise tax revenue to fund the fight against the Taliban.
- Helping support the functioning of the Afghan government in a variety of ways – training officials, building the National Parliament building and many other programmes designed to deliver effective governance to the people of Afghanistan.
India has already trained hundreds of mid-level Afghan military officers according to analysts, and this now appears to be escalating. India has agreed to train 600 officers every year since the visit of President Karzai, and in addition will also help train companies (100 men) of ANA soldiers in order to develop the cohesion of ANA units.

In addition to this, Indian Air Force pilots will help train their counterparts in the ANSF to support operations. Efforts will only increase over the next few years to ensure that a viable and sustainable government stays put in Kabul. But India can and needs to do more in Afghanistan.

Solutions for a global problem

A return of the Taliban after 2014 will mean that jihadis battling US/ISAF troops will now look around for a new focus and this is likely to be regional hotspots – J&K, Chechnya, Iran, Xinjiang amongst others. Of most concern to India is obviously J&K. Thankfully our security establishment is preparing for such a flare up post 2014. However, an escalation in J&K or at the Indian Line of Control will mean all the hard work of improving the economy and weaning away jihadists over the last ten years could go to waste. Perhaps another Kargil could be planned by Pakistan, in which thousands of lives and billions of dollars are spent on fighting each other which could be devoted to improving the lives of citizens.

However, India at the moment has chosen a bilateral approach together with Russia and Iran to discuss Afghanistan at a National Security Council level. But it is important to remind security establishments worldwide that a Taliban return is a problem for everyone. India has an opportunity to lead a regional and even global partnership effort to support the Afghan government. This will have to involve economic and military aid.

Rawalpindi fears

The Pakistani position is that India’s close relations with Afghanistan stems from India’s ambition to encircle Pakistan. But it’s never too late to remind the Pakistani’s that they continue to support terrorist acts in India and have used Afghanistan as a base for attacks against India. Nations have two choices – cooperation or conflict. Despite the continued acts of terrorism supported by the Pakistani military – India has made every attempt to seek cooperation –as is proved by the Sharm El Sheikh agreement delinking terror from bilateral relations (despite lack of support for this from the Indian public). Despite these efforts, we look across the border and we see the terror infrastructure largely intact. To date, the Pakistani Army has not revised its doctrine of ‘strategic depth’ in Afghanistan – a view we share with the US and its allies.

During the Taliban-controlled Afghanistan years, Pakistan left their northern borders largely undefended while a major proportion of Pakistani military resources were used to support their military on the borders with India.

Eventually, India will be forced to take the view that the continued support of terror by Pakistan will have to be met with a longterm response. That response is likely to involve supporting the Afghan government with military supplies (thus far India has refrained from doing so despite Afghan requests in the hope that Pakistan will maybe opt for cooperation instead of conflict) and even a military presence that ensures that Pakistan will have to guard their northern borders. Guarding their northern borders will mean deploying their meagre resources towards developing new infrastructure, more weapons and leaving the southern borders much less defended. This will make Pakistan vulnerable. This weakness is likely to result in Pakistan having to stop their terror support activities due to lack of resources and also to the absence of resources enabling their defence against any Indian military retaliation.

To conclude, India is likely to revisit their decision not to supply the ANSF with offensive weapons in 2014, if Pakistan continues to support terrorism on Indian soil. In the coming year, the PM of India, Manmohan Singh should also consider having a serious dialogue with the military leaders of Pakistan offering a no-war agreement in exchange for total cessation of support for terror.

This can only be secured with the support of Pakistan’s close allies – the GCC, China and the USA. This is precisely the reason why Indian strategists have done well to open a good line of communication between these three parties. Whether Pakistan will agree to such a proposal remains to be seen. The ball is in Pakistan’s court: will Pakistan decide between cooperation or conflict?

India must also take on a global leadership role, providing both economic and military aid together with regional/global partners in support of the Afghan government. A failure to do this could cost citizens in the region very dearly.

[SSridhar]

Afghan Iron-ore Project: Consortium Leader, SAIL, calls for meeting - Business Line

Afisco, the SAIL-led consortium, {they should change the name, it sounds like Fiasco} will have a top-level review meeting on March 20 on the proposed $10.8-billion integrated Hijigak project in Afghanistan.

Consortium sources told Business Line that the meeting was significant as for the first time heads of the consortium members would consider the future of the project.

Afisco encountered several hurdles in giving a final shape to the mega investment project.

“Even the economics of the mining project appear uncertain,” said the top official of a consortium member. SAIL Chairman C.S. Verma in January had told Business Line that the consortium was taking a “step-by-step approach” and was focussing on the mining project. According to an estimate, exploration and mine-development could cost some $2 billion.

In November 2011, the consortium of three state-run and four private Indian players was chosen as preferred bidder for three unexplored Hajigak iron ore blocks of Afghanistan’s Bamiyan province.

An MoU was signed in April last year for the comprehensive project, which included a 2.6-mtpa steel unit based on the mined ores.

During the past one year of negotiations, the Afghan Government yielded promise of providing access to around 6 million tonnes of coking coal, around 5 mtpa thermal coal and around 3 mtpa of flux assets. According to Afisco sources, apprehension over viability of the integrated project had been raised in the past five months.

“There was a fall in the interest in terms of key issues such as debt funding, security and logistics. Both the Governments showed indications of reduced keenness in the project,” said the chairperson of a steel maker, which is a part of the consortium.
Viability gap

“The junior level officials, who have been handling the negotiations and reviews, had earlier suggested problems in overcoming certain hurdles,” said CEO of another member.

After a review meeting on December 21, the consortium had sought Indian Government’s support to bridge a viability gap, said a director of Afisco member.

The Steel Ministry had asked the consortium leader to arrive at the viability gap figure and articulate the components of the “support” – financial and otherwise – Afisco needed for the Hajigak mining project.

The consortium now also has to consider the details of agreement, yet to be signed with the Afghan authorities.

In December, the Afghanistan Mines Minister had told Business Line that a comprehensive agreement was expected to be signed in January.

The Hajigak blocks are estimated to have reserves of around 1.28 billion tonnes of high-grade magnetite ore.

Apart from SAIL, the other consortium members are RINL, NMDC, JSW, JSW Ispat, Jindal Steel and Power Ltd and Monnet Ispat.

[gunjur]

Apologies if posted

Afghanistan starting crude oil exports

Output from China National Petroleum Corp. wells in northern Afghanistan will rise to 25,000 barrels a day by the end of the year from zero now, Minister of Mines Mr. Shahrani said, adding that the total will rise to 40,000 barrels a day in 2014. All the crude will be initially exported by truck through one of Afghanistan's northern neighbors,

"The wells are ready for production," he said. "If we complete negotiations with our northern neighbor in the next two to three weeks, then production of the crude will begin with an initial 5,000 barrels" a day, he said.

He declined to identify which of the three northern border countries—Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan or Tajikistan—is involved, describing the talks as "very advanced". And he didn't say whether CNPC intended to move the crude to China.

If crude is moving north, then definitely customer is china. Who else will buy crude there?? Our steel plant is still on paper. So china beats us here as well

[Sanku]

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/nato ... 61207.html

11 children among 20 dead in NATO airstrike in Afghanistan




Graphic picture.

[img]http://media2.intoday.in/indiatoday/ima ... 51.jpg[img]

A fierce battle between US-backed Afghan forces and Taliban militants in a remote corner of eastern Afghanistan left nearly 20 people dead, including 11 Afghan children killed in an airstrike and an American civilian adviser, officials said Sunday.

The fighting along a main infiltration route from Pakistan on Saturday was indicative of a surge in hostilities as Afghanistan's spring fighting season gets underway. This year's will be closely watched because Afghan forces are having to contend with less support from the international military coalition, making it a test case of their ability to take on the country's resilient insurgency.

The battle unfolded on Saturday, the same day that a total of six Americans, including three U.S. soldiers, died in violent attacks. In addition to the U.S. adviser killed during the operation in the east, two others - a female foreign service officer with the U.S. State Department and an employee with the U.S. Defense Department - died in a suicide bombing in southern Zabul province during a trip to donate books to Afghan students.

[SSridhar]

The Afghan Concerns Lend Weight to India, China Talks - Ananth Krishnan, The Hindu

Chinese analysts acknowledge that the routine counterterrorism consultations between India and China — held for almost a decade now — have achieved little in the way of results, with the talks increasingly seen by some as more a formality rather than a dialogue aiming for concrete outcomes.

The sixth such dialogue held here on Thursday has, however, assumed particular importance, analysts say, in the wake of increasing concerns in both countries over the security situation in Afghanistan following the NATO withdrawal in 2014.

“In the past, I don’t think this mechanism played a very important role,” said Zhao Gancheng, a South Asia scholar at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies.

“However, now the two sides are increasingly aware of the common threat of international terrorist forces in South Asia and other regions as well. And, the two sides are facing the prospect of the U.S. and allies withdrawing from Afghanistan”.

Those common concerns are expected to have figured in talks on Thursday between Additional Secretary in charge of counterterrorism in the Ministry of External Affairs Navtej Sarna, and Qiu Guohong, Director General of the Department of External Security Affairs, in the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

Mr. Sarna on Friday also met with Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister Cheng Guoping. India and China are, in coming days, also expected to have a separate —and first of its kind — consultation on Afghanistan, focusing on the post-2014 scenario.

Indian officials declined to comment on what issues figured. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hong Lei said Mr. Sarna and Mr. Qiu had “in-depth exchange of views and opinions on international and regional counterterrorism issues, and bilateral cooperation in this field”.

In the past, India’s concerns on terror emanating from Pakistan has been a sensitive issue in the talks considering China’s “all-weather” relationship with Pakistan and reluctance to work with India on the issue. China has, however, expressed growing concern over the safety of its personnel and investments in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and has also claimed that groups in its far-western Xinjiang region had links to terror groups in Pakistan.

With Afghanistan in flux and rising instability in Pakistan, it was becoming more important for India and China to have a cooperative mechanism, Professor Zhao said.

“China and India, and also perhaps Russia, should closely watch the situation because the development of Afghanistan will exert enormous impact on all three parties,” he said. “Pakistan is also a crucial player post-2014. In Pakistan, the terrorism situation is very serious and a lot of extremist forces are very active. Putting all of this together, it is important for China, India and other countries to think about what we are going to do and what kind of cooperative mechanisms will be built up”.

India, China and Russia recently had consultations in Moscow, which were followed by trilateral talks between China, Russia and Pakistan in Beijing, reflecting the delicate regional dynamics in the lead up to 2014.

Commenting on the two sets of talks, Mr. Hong of the Foreign Ministry said, “The countries believe the situation in Afghanistan is closely connected to regional peace and security. The relevant parties’ dialogue on the Afghan issue”, he added, “can help them to enhance mutual understanding, deepen trust and step-up coordination”.

[JE Menon]

"In Pakistan, the terrorism situation is very serious and a lot of extremist forces are very active. Putting all of this together, it is important for China, India and other countries to think about what we are going to do and what kind of cooperative mechanisms will be built up."

If the chinese chap actually said the above, and (a) was not lying to deceive; and/or (b) nothing was transformed in translation etc., then the above is an incredible statement. Represents a rather drastic shift in the Chinese mindset, vis-a-vis the Afpak scenario, and more importantly with regard to the future of Pakisatan.

[Bharath.Subramanyam]

http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/1824995/ ... fghanistan

Home > Mumbai > Report
More power to IPL in Afghanistan
Sunday, Apr 21, 2013, 10:30 IST | Place: Mumbai | Agency: DNA
Yoshita Sengupta
Almost every household in the country goes to extraordinary lengths to watch matches.


Rizwan Ull-Hayat doesn’t think twice before tanking up the generator. It’s the night his favourite Indian Premier League (IPL) team, Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR), will take to the field. And he doesn’t want to miss seeing his favourite players in action for even a second; not even an erratic power supply could play spoilsport.

Ull-Hayat could easily pass off as just another Indian bitten by the IPL mania bug. Except that the 23-year-old lives in Nangarhar province of Afghanistan.

For a country — and its people — who are still in the process of rebuilding themselves after over 30 years of war, IPL is the stuff that dreams are made of.

Shafiqullah Asmat Stanikzai, the Afghanistan cricket team’s manager, claims that “almost every person” in the country is glued to the TV set each time an IPL match plays out.

Ali Ahmed Darwish, 26, a manager in an oil company in Kabul, suggests a more modest figure. “Almost 80% of Afghans watch the IPL religiously. We have even managed to get a satellite TV connection at work to watch the afternoon matches.”

In other parts of Afghanistan, fans like Ull-Hayat raise the zeal up a notch. “Everybody here (Nangarhar) watches the matches and since the power supply is not regular, all of us arrange for enough oil just before a match to run our generators till the end of the game,” explains Ull-Hayat, who works as a finance manager at a company in Nangarhar, casually, like it’s no effort at all.

Darwish agrees. “Kabul is the only city where there is a regular power supply. I know so many people in other places who watch matches through fuel-run generators.”

And on days when even the generators fail, some fans head to a neighbour’s house or get an over-by-over update from friends or relatives through mobile phones.

Who are they cheering?
KKR seems to be the toast of the nation. But the fondness has more to do with team owner and Bollywood actor Shahrukh Khan's Pathan lineage (his paternal grandfather was from Afghanistan) than the line-up of players.

Another team, Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB), has begun to slowly gain popularity, riding on the shoulders of one player — Chris Gayle. “I really wish they (RCB) win this time. But before that, I wish I could go to India, watch them thrash Chennai and avenge the recent defeat,” says Sohail Yusufzai, 23, from Kabul.

The opinion is divided within the national cricket team. While the manager is rooting for KKR, he says each team player’s preference differs on the basis of whom he looks up to in the Indian squad. The wicketkeeper-batsman, for example, is rooting for Chennai Super Kings just because he is an ardent fan of captain MS Dhoni.

Why the fuss over IPL?
Love for Indian actors and cricketers apart, the IPL craze is fuelled by the belief that it is a way out of a despondent state of affairs in a war-ravaged country. Under the Taliban rule, sports were banned.

“Afghans love Indian cricketers, from Rahul Dravid to Dhoni. Our players watch almost every match and they want to be part of the IPL,” says Stanikzai. “We’re in desperate need of help to change the face of the game in our country, which we’ve sought from the BCCI (Board of Control for Cricket in India). We look up to the Indians and we’ll be grateful if the BCCI backs us the way Ireland and Scotland are backed by the ECB (England and Wales Cricket Board).”

To most Afghans, the smallest chance of seeing their players in the IPL simply offers a ray of hope for putting their lives back together.

[RajeshA]

http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/1824995/ ... fghanistan

Why the fuss over IPL?
Love for Indian actors and cricketers apart, the IPL craze is fuelled by the belief that it is a way out of a despondent state of affairs in a war-ravaged country. Under the Taliban rule, sports were banned.

“Afghans love Indian cricketers, from Rahul Dravid to Dhoni. Our players watch almost every match and they want to be part of the IPL,” says Stanikzai. “We’re in desperate need of help to change the face of the game in our country, which we’ve sought from the BCCI (Board of Control for Cricket in India). We look up to the Indians and we’ll be grateful if the BCCI backs us the way Ireland and Scotland are backed by the ECB (England and Wales Cricket Board).”

To most Afghans, the smallest chance of seeing their players in the IPL simply offers a ray of hope for putting their lives back together.

Now this is really worth following! Pakistanis are kept out of IPL but Afghan players get to compete! That would be such a wicked Thapparh on Pakistan, they will cry every time and still watch IPL to try to forget their own despondency!

[JE Menon]

Fantastic idea... I hope Afghan players are purchased next year at the auction.

[RajeshA]

JE Menon saar,

If Afghans start playing in IPL, when Taliban returns to Afghanistan and they start closing down on sports and TV, the Taliban would be in a rude shock. They will get an insurgency of cricket fans against them!

Cricket is a great way of ensuring that TVs and Satellite Dishes in Afghanistan are not banned, and through them Afghanistan continues to receive entertainment programming from India.

[Agnimitra]

Afghans celebrate with Paki flag in Kabul

[RamaY]

Large explosions, gunfire in central Kabul

A telugu news papers says these are near Indian Embassy.

[shyamd]

Target was police building - APPF. 1 Nepali national confirmed killed. Last 1/2 weeks seen serious hits to afghan establishment.

[svinayak]

Afghans celebrate with Paki flag in Kabul

This is the beginning of the end of TSP

[shyamd]

^^ ummm... Not quite. ANA has only 2-3% Pashtuns. Last year the recruitment drive failed. Expect the south Afghanistan to return to the Taliban. It's back to northern alliance. That's what everyone is preparing for now. NA is reactivating. Which begs the question what desi's are doing - are they willing to work with Taliban or locals?

[RKumar]

Why the hell whole world is concerned about Pakistan ... India is sensitive to them, Afg is sensitive to them... today Osama ..oh Obama is sensitive to them...

Wary of Pakistan, India hesitant over Karzai wish list for military hardware

In the backdrop of a Nato withdrawal and fears of a Taliban resurgence, Afghan President Hamid Karzai on Tuesday said he had given the Indian government a ‘wish list’ for military equipment. The list, said sources, comes after considerable discussions with Afghanistan on what exactly they would want. New Delhi has committed to provide training, equipment and capacity building for Afghan armed forces as part of the strategic partnership pact signed in 2011.

However, India appears more hesitant this time, largely because of the Pakistan factor. Afghan foreign minister Zalmai Rassoul observed, “A decade ago the BJP government wanted to help us militarily but we refused, due to Pakistan’s sensitivities. This time, we are keen, but India is hesitant.”

In response, MEA spokesman Syed Akbaruddin said, “There was a discussion on political and security issues, without going into specifics. But he said at the end of Karzai’s visit, the nation stood ready to help in all the areas that Afghanistan asked for.

“India is ready to stand by Afghanistan as a close, friendly and historic neighbour through these transitions and will play a due and responsible role in this regard,” he added.

Karzai took a more diplomatic approach. “We understand when India can help and when it cannot,” he said. Addressing a press conference before returning to Kabul, Karzai said in relation to India’s economic capacity, it had been the largest donor in Afghanistan. While he did not specify what exactly he had asked for, officials said Afghanistan had asked for artillery and attack helicopters.

India’s hesitation this time seems to stem from certain factors: Pakistan is certainly on UPA’s mind, particularly if they want to be cordial with the Nawaz Sharif government and are not sure how this would play out in Islamabad. Second, India’s own defence hardware is of rather low order. In fact, New Delhi is the world’s largest importer of military hardware itself.

The future of the Taliban-Afghan peace process may also have an effect. Karzai sought to dispel any notion that he might continue as president after 2014. “There are two reasons. First, I am exhausted, and I want to retire. Second, why would I ruin my legacy and take an opportunity away from Afghanistan to become an institutionalized democracy? It’s not good for me or Afghanistan,” he explained.

Why can't India use this very same logic when dealing with Pakistan = Afg and China = Vietnam/Taiwan/Tibet. This China is giving to us in relation to bakis.

China hasn’t used Pakistan against India

China has played a positive role in the continuous easing of the relationship between India and Pakistan, said a state-run daily which added, “China has not played balancing strategy, using one country against the other.”

An article in the Global Times said that when Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and his entourage flew from India to Pakistan on Wednesday for a two-day visit, his plane was escorted by six Pakistani Air Force JF-17 fighter jets after entering Pakistani airspace.

Both Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and caretaker Prime Minister Mir Hazar Khan Khoso welcomed Li at the airport in person, which clearly reflects the ‘all-weather’ friendship between China and Pakistan, it said.

“Developing friendly cooperation with both India and Pakistan, a pair of neighbours with many disputes, meets the interests of China, as well as the interests of the whole region,” the article said.

“China has played a positive role in the continuous easing of the relationship between India and Pakistan. China has not played balancing strategy, using one country against the other,” it said.

It noted that the ties between India and China have “grown broader while the Sino-Pakistan relations have gained depth”.

“Pakistan’s importance to China has never been weakened despite its relatively turbulent political situation and slower economic development compared with China and India in recent years. Pakistan will play a pivotal role in China’s South Asian strategy,” it added.

Global Times pointed out that “India has long been sensitive to the Sino-Pakistan relationship, even suspecting that China secretly helped Pakistan master nuclear technology. These suspicions are groundless but cannot easily be dispelled”.

It assured that China will not exploit Pakistan as a political card to play.

“This should be considered part of the mutual understanding between China and India. However, India must accept and adapt to the enviable friendship between China and Pakistan, which is not aimed at any third party and has no upper limit. China cannot scale down this relationship merely because of India’s feelings.”

The daily went on to say that the strategic value of the Sino-Pakistani relationship is also of regional significance. “It is conducive to the stability of western China and can also assist, rather than harm, the Sino-Indian relationship on the whole.”

It stressed that the urgent priority for Pakistan is the full realization of national peace and stability and developing its economy. “A prosperous, vibrant Pakistan will be an emerging market for a large number of Chinese companies. An economically vibrant Pakistan will be conducive to geopolitical balance in South Asia.”

The article emphasised that China’s input in Pakistan must not be short-term or exploitative.

“We must not underestimate Pakistan which is temporarily at an ebb. Efforts we put into Pakistan today will be strategically rewarded in future.”

[shyamd]

Dilli wants to see if Nawaz and Kayani successor can deliver peace and walk the walk, so we'll visit the decision to arm the ANSF probably early 2014.

[RamaY]

Kiyanahi was in his position for years. What extra he can deliver? What can Nawaz deliver? Extradite the 20 most wanted to Delhi?

that would be "Donkey's Dream" for the donkeys in GoI.

[Nikhil T]

NDTV Documentary: Endgame Afghanistan

Good documentary discusses what will happen in Afghanistan after NATO-forces withdraw in 2014. Put this into perspective while our UPA dithers about supplying arms to Afghan forces.

[shyamd]

Dilli know it too... they are seeing if Nawaz will walk the walk - kayani is lost cause, Dilli waiting for kayani successor. Nothing to lose in waiting 8/9 months. If he delivers something then we gain, if they don't then Dilli will take the necessary action. Probability of success here is like 5-10% at best. Dilli knows that - in fact the assessment is Nawaz will probably be on board and army will unleash worse terror in desh than we have seen in recent times...

[abrahavt]

The afghans are asking India for artillery and helicopters both of which are in short supply in India itself.

[member_20292]

Would the Arjun tank do well in Afghanistan?

[Samudragupta]

Would the Arjun tank do well in Afghanistan?

Afghanistan is not much a tankable country....and no India probably is not going to supply the military hardware to the Afghans....forget Arjun....

[member_23252]

No Indian choppers, guns for Karzai : HT

Seemingly wary of complicating the fragile Afghan security situation, India is unlikely to directly supply military equipment, including helicopters and ammunition, to Kabul despite President Hamid Karzai re-submitting the hardware list to the Manmohan Singh government earlier this week.

While South Block is tight-lipped about the contents of the wish list, official sources said President Karzai wanted India to supply Russian Mi-17 helicopters along with spare parts, 105mm artillery guns, 81mm mortars, assault rifles and assorted ammunition for the Afghan army. “The Afghanistan president has regurgitated an old wish list. India is cagey about supplying hardware to Kabul as the move could be used by Islamabad as an excuse to walk out of the war on terror waged across the Durand Line and ratchet up tensions in Afghanistan through Pakistan-based terrorist groups,” said a senior official.

With the US pulling out troops from Afghanistan next year, India wants to pre-empt any possibility of its own military hardware being used against the Afghan people at a later date despite New Delhi and Kabul being all-round strategic partners since 2011. Sensitive to its friendly image in Afghanistan, India has only revived the military hospital at Farakhor across the Amu Darya in Tajikistan for treating injured Afghan soldiers and civilians.

“The Indo-Afghan military cooperation is confined to training a limited number of troops each year. The primary focus of ties is on infrastructure development, medical support and education,” said an official.

However, India is reaching out to all ethnic factions, including Pashtuns, in Afghanistan to ensure that the Pakistan-based terrorist groups do not get a safe haven across the Durand Line. This is being done after the US and Afghan intelligence reports indicated that groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba had moved into Kunar and Nuristan provinces across the Pakistan border.

[member_20292]

^^^

Yah napunsak vaad technique hain.

Real men realize the nature of the beast and make sure that his b&lls are in their hands.

Arming Afghanistan is our ONLY option. I hope the govt. realizes this and acts on it. Both artillery and helicopters, later sukhoi 30s LCAs should be sold to the Afghans.

2 can fight a 2 front war, what say?

[habal]

India should stand besides shias & provide fulsome support to hezbollah, Syria, Iran & Iraq & Afghanistan. Sunni alliance of Turkey, Jordan, Saudi, Pakistan has to be cut to size and there should be some kind of equilibrium, else this US-sponsored Sunni alliance will create terror attack galore in asia. It will become difficult to manage it later. It is in India's interest to ensure that no group emerges stronger in this war. Saudi's, Jordanians & Turks have sent their best irregular commandos to Syria to fight under flags such a JaN.

The ultimate aim of US and it's western sponsors is to wreck asian leadership but preserve the natural resources & prosperity for their use. That is why they are targeting the leadership under various guise.

[RajeshA]

habal ji,

the leadership of the Shi'ites should go to the Najaf and Karbala. Sunni vs. Shia needs to become an internal Arab fight! Iran needs to be taken off the Islamic chessboard altogether.

We should be giving full diplomatic support to Nuri Al-Maliki's government as well as to KRG. But we should be helping Saudis trim Iran.

[habal]

It will become internal fight only after Sunni's are manifold weaker and also lack support from anglosphere. Otherwise the few shia arab that exist in sunni ruled areas are mincemeat. So 'we' at preesnt needn't do anything to help Saudi trim Iran because they are capable of it themselves and with western support, the Saudi's are the more potent in the battle. This battle can dutifully enlarge only if Saudi's are weakened and Shia's are made stronger, then you can see some real battle.

[member_20292]

^^^ you are not very wrong there, Habal.

Agreed to some extent. However, arming Afghans is our very primary goal. They have to have a functioning army that is able to fight the people of the southern Afghanistani provinces, convince them to not support the Taliban, and support the central government of Afghanistan, and then be able to put the screws on the Pak army from the other side.

[vasu raya]

From a very selfish perspective will want to see how stuff made by local MIC fares in battlefield conditions and overlapping with Karzai's speculated wish list

a) Mine Protected Vehicles
b) Dhruv Mk4
c) Truck launched Nishant
d) Namica
e) Artillery
f) BPJs, Rifles
g) Sharp shooting equipment
h) Conveyance vehicles

[habal]

Yes, Afghan can become real-time battlefield testers for Indian eqiupment. No need for IA to veto or some lobby to apply pressure on which equipment is better. No more GSQR, RFI tamasha which anyways facilitates middlemen. Can the Indian MIC grow & mature fast enough to protect afghanistan, that is the question. This is Maududi in reverse.

[Samudragupta]

Karzai is pushing Afghanistan to civil war...it seems Karzai's younger brother will run for the president....the opposition National Front is putting up a strong show through Amrullah Saleh, Abdullah Abdullah and Zia Massoud....Karzai is ensuring Pustun domination of the Afghan society....

[vishvak]

India could sign a tactical pact wherein all-Indian forces at certain locations for air cover, CISF (Indian exclusive) for Industries, etc. could be providing security. It That could be integrated with capabilities from within Indian borders could be great as well. That way some strength can be directly added without any risk from talib scum infiltration while providing strong defensive cover for interests. A few military bases like forts at mountainous locations would be good too. Such scenarios could be envisioned whereby maximum defense could be possible without any risks.

[habal]

there are always risks, secret to good defence lies in keeping the enemy constantly unsettled, until they cease to exist. The 'great game' is played when one takes risks but maximises the chances of success through micro-strategy. Congress under Indira had the strategy but under Sonia it is a EU-US stooge so there is no strategy. Once BJP or likeminded parties come into power, they must take recourse to the Indira strategy for external affairs and not get too caught up in self-goals. There are lot of low-hanging fruits in neighbourhood and if they are not harvested in time, the western interests will allow the Sunni's to take away the fruits.

[ramana]

Karzai list is odd. He should be having access to US made 105mm guns and mortars, rifles and ammo. I think he is testing India to see if we are serious about supporting him. As usual MEA ersatz mandrins are wringing hands and worrying about US.

India is cagey about supplying hardware to Kabul as the move could be used by Islamabad as an excuse to walk out of the war on terror waged across the Durand Line and ratchet up tensions in Afghanistan through Pakistan-based terrorist groups,”

TSP is already ratcheting tensions in Afghanistan. And what is the war on terror East of Durand Line?
East of Durand line (EOD) the TSP is engaging the TTP which is fighting the TSPA. All Afghani Taliban EOD are TSP munnas. So what war on terror is MEA cagey about?
Or do they believe the CNN progaganda?

[habal]

It is old-school centrist setup, a few people know everything and the rest just regurgitate same old cliches. There is a 'need to know' philosophy on all levels of even Indian govt. The journalists just go to somebody who will give them time of the day and their access to info is limited to whatever namedrop the chaiwallah does.

[Sushupti]

Live demo of iedology

[sanjaykumar]

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/featur ... 01708.html

Visa rules for Iran have become stringent in recent years, while Pakistan has become unpopular among students and the state. "The Afghan government feels those who went to Pakistan returned as terrorists, so we are discouraged to go there," says Ahmady, adding those with Pakistani degrees don't find jobs easily. India is a cheap and quality option.

[SSridhar]

SAIL led group's Afghanistan mining JV will happen soon - Business Line

The members of the SAIL-led group Afghan Iron and Steel Consortium, will soon form a joint venture company to carry out iron ore mining and build an integrated steel plant in Afghanistan. However, a deadline for this was not specified.

The consortium was awarded the large Hajigak iron ore reserve, in the Bamiyan province, by the Hamid Karzai Government in in 2011.

Apart from the Indian steel major, the other consortium members are Vizag Steel, NMDC, JSW, JSW Ispat, Jindal Steel and Power Ltd and Monnet Ispat.

“We are on the verge of documenting the JV agreement. Except for one or two minor clauses, most of the issues were settled during the most recent round of discussion (between consortium members). The joint venture should happen soon, maybe in the next round of discussions,” Chandra Shekhar Verma, the SAIL Chairman, said here on Saturday.

Asked about the schedule for the consortium’s next meeting, he said, “It will happen very shortly.”

Verma was in the city in connection with the eastern region meeting of Standing Conference of Public Enterprises (SCOPE).

Phase-I funding

According to Verma, once the joint venture is formed, the consortium members will undertake the first phase of the work programme, including exploration of the mining assets and preparation of a project development strategy.

The first phase will cost $75 million, approximately Rs 428 crore at the current exchange rate, and will be funded by the seven partners. Funding options for the subsequent phases will be decided once the project plan is ready, Verma said.

With US troops scheduled to retreat from Afghanistan in phases by early 2014, the global financing community is apprehensive about the safety of investments in the troubled country.

Responding to queries regarding financial support from the Indian Government, the SAIL Chairman said: “We are yet to decide on the funding pattern for future phases. If Afghanistan remains on the negative list for banks, then it is a separate issue, But we will approach (the Government) at an appropriate time.”

[abhishek_sharma]

How to Negotiate Like a Pashtun: A field guide to dealing with the Taliban.