2013 Egypt Coup - Morsi ousted

[Johann]

Ramana, I wouldn't put Ataturk or the Shah or Enver Hoxha into the category of superficial secularisation. They were determined to remake their countries identities entirely and de-Islamicise their societies. In that sense they were as radical as the communists and the first stage of the French revolution.

[ramana]

Ok. The problem is Islamist meme is like a dormant virus and reinfects when the conditions are appropriate. Its there in the Old Church also.

[panduranghari]

the stage appear set for egypt to join the "horn of africa" to the south starting with sudan as a troubled zone.
and to the west libya, mali, mauritania, algeria, chad, niger are either boiling or tractless sands with govt control being fitful at best.

How do you see this playing out?

[Johann]

Ok. The problem is Islamist meme is like a dormant virus and reinfects when the conditions are appropriate. Its there in the Old Church also.

Mass political mobilisation on the basis of religious identity is unfortunately a big part of modernity, side by side with secularism. They are two competing forces generated by the same process. Sort of like fascism and communism.

The more socioeconomically unequal a given Muslim society is, the more fragile any elite driven secularisation will be. That is why Turkey's push to modernity and secularism lasted longer than Iran or Afghanistan.

Authoritarian Islamism of the revolutionary kind is no more likely to deliver results than the authoritarian secularism, and its just as likely to lose its appeal as the previous ideologies. Iran is a good example of that, and so is the protests against Morsi.

The Middle East will I believe go through the same horrific process of intolerance, violence, growing literacy, reconfiguration and liberalisation that Europe had to struggle through in the middle ages and early modern era, but on a different time scale - one that is simultaneously later and more compressed.

[ShauryaT]

Johann: Welcome back. I wrote the below in a different context recently.

ShauryaT, The world problem right now is the collapse of nation-states in the Islam dominated regions in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. The region stretches from north africa to Indonesia and the only bastion standing is India.
Its turning out to be quite a khamsin instead of the gentle breeze supposed to ease the dictators and usher in democracy and secularism!

The model can either work with a strong man or with liberal values, well entrenched amongst the elite and its peoples. Strong men do not last and liberal values in the region is a near impossibility. Keeping them broken and fighting is in Indian interests, in the near term. As long as its two strongest states, Turkey and Persia do not get to dominate the region, I am happy. The worst will be both Iran and Turkey emerge stronger, a distinct possibility, if the west disengages. The regional split between Sunni:Shia is close to 1:1, if one excludes South and SE Asia. There was a strong reason, why I was jumping up and down like yo-yo for Indian military participation in Afghanistan.

[brihaspati]

Ok. The problem is Islamist meme is like a dormant virus and reinfects when the conditions are appropriate. Its there in the Old Church also.

Mass political mobilisation on the basis of religious identity is unfortunately a big part of modernity, side by side with secularism. They are two competing forces generated by the same process. Sort of like fascism and communism.

The more socioeconomically unequal a given Muslim society is, the more fragile any elite driven secularisation will be. That is why Turkey's push to modernity and secularism lasted longer than Iran or Afghanistan.

Authoritarian Islamism of the revolutionary kind is no more likely to deliver results than the authoritarian secularism, and its just as likely to lose its appeal as the previous ideologies. Iran is a good example of that, and so is the protests against Morsi.

The Middle East will I believe go through the same horrific process of intolerance, violence, growing literacy, reconfiguration and liberalisation that Europe had to struggle through in the middle ages and early modern era, but on a different time scale - one that is simultaneously later and more compressed.

Chistianity is midway between the Judaic and Islamic - and the pattern should be obvious - it is the same essential core ideology and mindset responding differently to cumulative increase in human knowledge. In each period it adjusts its formal position so that the new developments in human understanding can be shaped and absorbed in a literal sense, but without jeopardizing the core agenda - that of misappropriation of the biological resources of larger populations for the benefit of a hierarchical and pyramidal social power structure supporting an elite leadership.

It relies on those parts of the human psyche that is attracted to sado-masochism - the enjoyment of giving and receiving pain, as well shifting of guilt for pursuit of desires at the expense of others to a supra-human authority. As such, this agenda changes form - but never gives up its core targets. Christianity in its mature form gave rise to imperialism and colonialism on an unprecedented globally horrific level, where all its S&M was transferred more to colonial subjects and therefore this outlet reduced the S&M pressure on the home-turf. Islamism devised a framework to maintain it wherever it gained a majority - domestic or foreign.

This refinement of procedure and justificatory framework will keep the Islamics going without essential reform of the type that happened with the loss of colonial field where the S&M was moved out of home-countries -in the case of Christianity.

Islam dominated countries may only change on complete economic or military collapse which links the mullah and his text for the fall, or in which the mullah is wiped off with his institution. Left even a breathing space, the mullah will use the social continuity of the memes and their hold on populations to slowly and surely grow back to state domination.

[brihaspati]

Even in Egypt - the domestic Islamism might not be defeatable by the army alone. At the moment it is external support+army that is holding the fort.

[Johann]

Progress requires consensus on a set of values, goals and methods.

Most Middle Eastern societies are *deeply* divided on all three of these things in part because while most people can agree that Islam is a good thing, but have barely any consensus on what that actually entails - not only are there old divisions, its also a moving target as ideas about what Islam stands for and how it ought to be practiced mutate. Each attempt to *impose* consensus and uniformity kicks off new sets of conflicts and violence.

Quite separate from that is the problem that a mix of rapid change and dictatorship has damaged most existing social structures without providing replacements.

Ultimately the most likely way out of the logjam is not abandoning Islam - which is unlikely in most of the Muslim world - but redefining it as a set of personal choices rather than publicly regulated obligations. In short, the personalisation and individualisation of Islam. This is more or less what happened to Christianity under the pressure of far larger and far more powerful social, economic, technological and political forces. Islam is not so special that it can just escape all of those forces - at the end of the day people are people, and the vast majority want to survive and live better than before. People value the idea of continuity far more than its substance.

[brihaspati]

Societies may exist at different equilibria - things can be self-sustaining without "progressing" or changing to other equilibria. The Christian Europe case is fundamentally different from the Islamic ME case on many counts - and the Islamics had the benefit of watching Christians for more than a 600 years when they formulated their initial memes. It i sbetter adapted to hold statsu quo than christianity.

[Johann]

B, if you think ME societies have not gone through enormous upheavals - political, social, economic, and yes, religious in the last 600 years then you're presenting an enormously superficial view of the region and its peoples.

The idea of an eternal unchanging Islam is a myth that appeals most of all to fundamentalists and orientalists. So is the myth of exceptionalism - whether good or bad.

[ShauryaT]

B, if you think ME societies have not gone through enormous upheavals - political, social, economic, and yes, religious in the last 600 years then you're presenting an enormously superficial view of the region and its peoples.

The idea of an eternal unchanging Islam is a myth that appeals most of all to fundamentalists and orientalists. So is the myth of exceptionalism - whether good or bad.

Correct and when one applies that some construct of an unchanging and unyielding Sunni theological Islamism principles as the one guiding the muslims of India on an exclusive basis, it is a real tragedy and leads to an inability to integrate Indian muslims into a larger liberal construct that exists.

[ramana]

The integration of Indian Muslims was well under way till the oil enriched KSA et al promoted Wahabi brand of Islam into the mullahs. And All India Muslim Law was codified by the British and gave primacy to Deobandi school which is clone of the Wahabi school.

Ignoring the external factors and making it look like only India is to blame is not correct.

[brihaspati]

B, if you think ME societies have not gone through enormous upheavals - political, social, economic, and yes, religious in the last 600 years then you're presenting an enormously superficial view of the region and its peoples.

The idea of an eternal unchanging Islam is a myth that appeals most of all to fundamentalists and orientalists. So is the myth of exceptionalism - whether good or bad.

We look at the superficial struggles for power over the state and think they have had any fundamental effect on the essential theological underpinnings. No - not really. This is another discussion, but I can take out the ME historical record threadbare and show that - all the rhetoric was merely formal adaptation to changing modes of knowledge, but still firmly geared towards absorption of purely military advantages from tech and new financial networks. But no fundamental reflection on the essential strategy of expansion and totalitarian control.

We make this mistake of looking at different formal sects as different streams within Islam - without actually having compared their doctrines. Then onlee it becomes apparent that where the state and totalitarianism is concerned they all remain identical. Its onlee the claim and legitimacy to that totalitarian control - that is being fought over. Moreover the sects sometimes represent the different tactical approaches laid out in Islam in different phases of strength and weakness when the totalitarian state is not yet absolute in its power. They do not represent different theologies and doctrines of power.

[ramana]

Op-Ed from an NRI scholar in Business Standard

India and secular Egypt

States and civil societies usually perceive external events through their domestic values and histories. In recent years, India's discourse has highlighted the importance of democracy as a factor worth cherishing in its own right in different regions. Although Delhi has disavowed a foreign policy that promotes democracy, a position consistent with a plural acceptance of diverse regimes, sections of civil society unabashedly argue for India to take more active positions externally.

Many instinctively interpret Egypt's latest crisis through such a prism and are viewing these events as a binary of "democracy versus authoritarianism" with the choice of democracy as a moral and liberal necessity.

{More MUTU then necessary. All Wests problems are DIE problems!}

Often the image and perceived lessons from Pakistan shape Indian perceptions. How can India condone a military coup anywhere when civil-military relations in Pakistan have left a ghastly stain on Pakistan's body politic and undermined regional security and stability?

{Feeble DIE minds cant gork Indian self interests. Being in power or part of elite kills dharma and makes it subtle!}

For a start, that a very large section of the Egyptian polity, especially the urban, educated, and, the bureaucratic elite, appear to have supported the military's intervention to remove the Islamist President Mohamed Morsi from power makes simple binary interpretations problematic.

{BTW large sections of Pakistan also support their constant coups! So what? The above is not the reason to praise the coup. The coup should be praised for restoring Egypt to the modern path instead of the antediluvian morass that the MB was set up on enforcing.}

Regional reactions typically reflect domestic imperatives of different states.

Turkey through its Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been playing a dangerous game in the region by providing a springboard and haven for the Western-backed insurgency in Syria to strengthen his own political prospects within Turkey. Turkey's posture on Egypt too emanates from its domestic context. Until the early 2000s, Turkey's military had been an uncompromising guardian for the nation state's secular identity by keeping Islamic revivalism at bay. Over the past decade, Mr Erdogan's rise and the ascendance of political Islam has been systematically challenging Turkey's secular identity. Unsurprisingly, Mr Erdogan is threatened by the Egyptian military's anti-Islamic coup.

{Actually the marginalization of Turkey's 'secualrization' is because that has not brought forththe benefits they hoped for when they adopted nationalism instead of Muslim ummah and abolished the Khilafat. So they are reverting as Erdogan's election has shown. Turkey was molly coddled during WWII and Cold War to keep them on Allies/West/NATO side. After FSU collapsed, the expectation was it would continue and Turkey would be integrated into EU. That didn't happen and their secularism was not recognized.}

Pakistan's case is very different from both Egypt and Turkey. In Pakistan, the military has for several decades, especially after the severing of East Pakistan and General Zia-ul-Haq's takeover in the late 1970s, forged a compact with radical Islam to regulate domestic politics and reinforce the very basis of Pakistan's identity and existence. In contrast, the military in Egypt and Turkey have historically been suspicious of and kept Islamic forces at arms' length. No sober analyst can argue that Rawalpindi has been a defender of secular principles. In Egypt and Turkey, the military have traditionally been staunch defenders of secularism. India should recognise these differences when it searches for an interpretation of regional dynamics.

Arguably, the deeper political and ideational battle in West Asia is between secular forces and radical Sunni Islam. Syria is an ongoing and bloody battleground where this contest is being played out with regional actors and great powers such as US and Russia superimposing their own geopolitical interests and power in shaping the outcome of this contest.

{Another aspect is intra -slam fight between Shia and Sunni is again in Syria. Last time in 657 (?) Battle of Siffin, the Sunni won agaisnt Caliph Ali and marched on. Now due to the modern world a defeat of the Sunni radicals will lead to a blowback on those countries supporting them.}

It seems obvious that India's interests, both immediate and long-term, lie with the strengthening of secular forces wherever they might lie in the West Asian state apparatuses. This, of course, does not imply a conciliatory posture towards Rawalpindi, which has been playing with radical forces for over a generation and mostly at the expense of Indian security. Ironically, the military's intervention in Egypt seeks to stave off a radicalisation of the body politic of Egypt akin to Pakistan's tragic reorientation in recent decades.

Some Arab monarchies have welcomed the crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood primarily for cynical reasons of self-preservation. Saudi Arabia and the UAE announced an $8 billion aid package to Egypt shortly after Mr Morsi's downfall. Qatar, on the other hand, had reportedly invested $8 billion in the Morsi regime. Doha also played a central role in financing the Syrian insurgency.

Despite intra-Arab differences, these dinosaur regimes that have been playing with fire since the Arab Spring and now sense a blowback from Syria and Egypt turning on these monarchies themselves. Syria's Assad regime would also welcome Mr Morsi's downfall - who, a month ago described the rebellion against Damascus as a legitimate jihad.

Israel is rediscovering the advantages of a stable West Asia and Tel Aviv has encouraged Washington to maintain its $1.5 billion aid to Egypt's military lest a weakened army is unable to contain the breakout of a civil war that could spill through the Sinai Peninsula and unravel Israel's security.

Indian discourse needs to look beyond the one-size-fits-all image of democracy versus authoritarianism. It is the underlying values and identity of a state and its body politic that should inform Indian discourse and official pronouncements. For example, a radical Sunni dispensation legitimatised via electoral success but one that rides roughshod over human rights, minority protection or fundamental secular principles cannot be in India's interests. In contrast, a quasi-authoritarian state underpinned by secular principles and a defender of minority rights (i.e. Syria) may not conform to simplistic liberal sensibilities but will ensure that more dangerous socio-political forces are kept at bay.

India should resist condoning any electoral democracy in West Asia that produces a governance philosophy that is the very antithesis of a plural secular statehood and negation of social equality and justice. The persistence of India's own democracy does not emerge from electoral voting machines but from values that are enshrined in the constitution and are defended by ideas and institutions, however compromised these might have become in recent years. If anything, the flux in West Asia should be juxtaposed with these core Indian values and not a superficial electoral stamp.

The deeper contest in West Asia is not between democracy and authoritarianism but between secular principles, and, a conservative image of Islam that is seeking to fill the void after decades of failed governance and West-sponsored despotism across the region. A democratic tyranny of the majority that provides a veneer for an anti-secular, illiberal and sectarian ethos will produce an unstable West Asia for decades.

{I would drop the adjective democratic and say any tyranny of the majority .........}
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The writer is a research scholar at King's College London

[SSridhar]

From NightWatch dated July 17

Egypt: The Muslim Brotherhood has threatened to stage a 'million-man' anti-government demonstration in Cairo after night prayers during the night of 17 July. In the past two weeks, security has deteriorated significantly in North Sinai. Hard line Islamists and self-styled pro-Mursi militants are mounting daily attacks against Egyptian police and security forces. On the 17th four attacks were reported. Egyptian forces are losing at least one killed and a half dozen wounded daily. In coordination with the Israelis, 11 Egyptian Army battalions, supported by armor and helicopters, are now preparing for large-scale operations against the Sinai militants. Intercepted logistics activities indicate the Islamists intend to start a violent campaign west of the Suez as well. On the 16th security forces captured a shipment of uniforms and other military equipment near Suez. On the 17th they intercepted 19 GRAD rockets in a truck heading for Cairo from the port of Suez.

Comment: The demonstrations in Cairo appear to be mostly a diversion, while anti-government militants prepare for violence. The main Islamist effort is developing in North Sinai. Weapons are being smuggled across the Suez Canal to cause an uprising west of the Canal. The logistic activity implies that fighting groups are organized and waiting for weapons. The GRAD rockets almost certainly were made and supplied by Hamas and came from the Gaza Strip. The Egyptian Army has had little success in controlling militants during the past two years. Since 3 July they have become more agressive and apparently been reinforced. The Army's prospects of suppressing this emerging insurgency are not good. The Egyptian Army will need significant extra US military support after operations begin. This fight will be the precise opposite of the Syrian fight and, thus, will pose a major policy challenge to the US administration as to whether and how deeply to get involved.

[Sanku]

Ok. The problem is Islamist meme is like a dormant virus and reinfects when the conditions are appropriate. Its there in the Old Church also.

Mass political mobilisation on the basis of religious identity is unfortunately a big part of modernity, .

Such as during the crusades you mean?

[Uttam]

How foreign ownership of media can create a havoc?


Al-Jazeera Under Fire For Its Coverage Of Egypt

The past two weeks in Egypt have been a real test for the TV network Al-Jazeera. Accusations that the network is biased toward the Muslim Brotherhood and ousted Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi have resulted in arrests, threats and resignations.
.....................
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Al-Jazeera's loss of credibility also reflects a loss of credibility for its main backer, Qatar.

Talk-show host Bassem Yousef, who is often described as the Jon Stewart of Egypt, recently mocked Qatar's backing of Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood, with songs and flags and costumes.

Kraidy says now that Morsi has been deposed, Qatar lost more than face.

"In addition to several billion dollars that they had invested in Mr. Morsi and his government in aid, they really lost a lot of influence in what remains a very, very major country," Kraidy says.

The new emir of Qatar, Sheik Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, who took power just last month, will now have to decide whether he wants to reshape Al-Jazeera, his country's best-known brand name, Kraidy says.

[ramana]

Al Jazeera was used to give baksheesh to Al Gore via the Current TV acquisiton.

[ramana]

X-Post....

From this article: Is Moderate Islam Showing Cracks With Fall of Political Islam?

To understand Egypt, we must start from Qatar. Did the former emir of Qatar have a dream while he was in Britain and suddenly decide he was abdicating? Was this a gift from a generous heart? I don’t think so.

The former emir of Qatar took the throne by overthrowing his father. He is not the type to make a gift of it to his son. Those invisible powers must have told him, “Announce you are handing power over to your son and stay as our guest for some more time.” But with his money under watch. Why?

Is it because he was supporting former President Mohammed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and giving them money? It looks that way.

It was the former emir of Qatar who was also helping the Muslim Brotherhood fight President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, alongside Turkey.

After Qatar, it was the Muslim Brotherhood's turn, under Morsi. The "domino theory" … could be the harbinger of a change (of season) ... in the Middle East. The Arab Spring prevailed with the winds of the Muslim Brotherhood. Is the Arab Summer now aimed at wiping out the Muslim Brotherhood? If that is the case, which will be the third domino to fall?

Predictions focus on Tunisia. In the meantime, in Syria, we note that Assad is slowly recovering the ground he had lost to the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated opposition.

Winds are changing directions in the Middle East. Winds are now blowing against the Muslim Brotherhood. The question now is whether fault lines are emerging in moderate Islam.

To oppose coups, and the toppling of the democratically elected Morsi, is a principled and democratic attitude. But you have to think of what will ensue.

There is a thin line between opposing the coup in Egypt and standing by the Muslim Brotherhood.

Following this point, Turkey’s priority must be on ensuring that elections are held as soon as possible in Egypt. Of course, supporting democracy in every country, including Egypt, must be our permanent stance.

Don’t forget that Morsi was elected by a majority, among the 34% who voted. Nearly 66% of people did not vote. I am not arguing about legitimacy here, but reminding you to take note of the majority who did not vote.

I wish there was no coup. I wish Morsi could have been changed at the ballot box.

But the road to democracy — embracing all Egyptians instead of a segment of them — is open. Turkey must join this road trip with all Egyptians.

It could be that the West (US + UQ) are using the predictable economic cycle to attenuate Islamism as an ideology - by gathering them in hotspots by the lure of power, supporting their capture of power, and then forcing them to discredit themselves by the effects of economic and social adversity.

I think the guy is saying that the next domino will be Turkey not the other swallows.
The big tree will be TSPA which supports its own version of Islamism and has seized power and reluctantly and nontransparently 'gave' up political power.

[SSridhar]

Saudi Arabia Replaces Qatar as Key Egypt Ally - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

Supporters and rivals of the deposed Egyptian President continue to throng the streets, but behind the scenes the military that brought down Mohamed Morsy seems to be consolidating its power, benefiting from the hefty financial and political support from Saudi Arabia and some other oil-rich Gulf neighbours.

On Friday, anti-Morsy demonstrators, who had assembled in their thousands, were effusive in their praise for the military, imparting a distinct nationalistic flavour.

As helicopters and planes, marking the fortieth anniversary of Egypt’s war with Israel in 1973, carried out celebratory aerobatics above the venue, the organisers of the rally sought to convey the message that Mr. Morsy’s removal, with the support of the army, was an equivalent political accomplishment as the perceived victory over Israel 40 years ago.

But not far from Tahrir Square, spirited counter-rallies were being staged by the Muslim Brotherhood.

While the hiatus between the secularists and Islamists remains largely unbridged, Gulf heavyweights, keen to turn their petrodollars into geopolitical heft, are strengthening the military-backed interim leadership. Central Bank governor Hisham Ramez said on Thursday out of its $5-billion pledge, Saudi Arabia is set to transfer $2 billion as an interest free deposit over the next few days. Reuters also reported on the same day that the Egyptian Central Bank has already received a $3-billion aid package from the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Besides, Kuwait has promised to transfer $4 billion dollars to the interim government.

Analysts point out that with the Gulf countries committing $12 billion, the Egyptians had been liberated from relying on the elusive $4.8 billion loan that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had offered.

Blow to Turkey

The assertion of a Saudi-led regional group that has caught the West on the wrong foot has meant that two countries — Turkey and Qatar — the main supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt as well as in the region, including Syria, have suffered a blow after the Egyptian military coup.

Late on Thursday, Turkey’s Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan hectored ambassadors from the West and Arab countries, invited for a Iftar dinner in Ankara, about the pusillanimous response shown by their countries regarding the Egyptian coup.

Observers say the leadership change in Qatar, where the former Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani has abdicated in favour of his son, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, has badly hurt the Muslim Brotherhood regionwide. Following the change of guard, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani, the pro-Muslim Brotherhood former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister has been shown the door. The high-profile Brotherhood ideologue Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi has also disappeared from the limelight .

Saudi Arabia is apparently displacing its frequent rival, Qatar in the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) battling President Bashar Al Assad.

[vishvak]

"Late on Thursday, Turkey’s Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan hectored ambassadors from the West and Arab countries, invited for a Iftar dinner in Ankara, about the pusillanimous response shown by their countries regarding the Egyptian coup."

Wow these people change their standing rather quick. Billions of $$ of aid seem to do work like command, till it runs out of course.

[SSridhar]

The MB has started the violent fight back. Will the Egyptian Army be able to quell it the way Nasser did ? The Al-Nour party will join the deteriorating situation at an appropriate time. They may be keeping quiet at this moment after having initially supported the ouster.

[SSridhar]

Egyptian Army Chief Calls for Rallies Against 'Terrorism' - ToI

Egypt's military chief called for mass rallies on Friday to give the army a mandate to confront violence following the overthrow of Islamist President Mohamed Morsi, appearing to up the ante against the Muslim Brotherhood.

General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who deposed Morsi on July 3 and replaced his government with a new interim administration, also said there would be no retreat from the army-backed roadmap that envisions parliamentary elections within six months.

"I ask ... that next Friday all honest and trustworthy Egyptians must come out," Sisi said in remarks broadcast live by state media. "Why come out? They come out to give me the mandate and order that I confront violence and potential terrorism."

A senior member of Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood movement, Essam El-Erian, said Sisi's appeal was a threat, but vowed that it would not halt protests to back the ousted president.

"Your threat will not prevent millions from continuing to gather," Erian wrote on Facebook.

Sisi's remarks at a military graduation ceremony followed an overnight bomb attack on a police station in Mansoura, 110km (68 miles) north of Cairo, that killed one person and wounded two dozen others.

A government spokesman condemned it as a terrorist attack.

Morsi's Islamist backers have accused security forces of conspiring to blame them for the bombing.

In a statement, they warned of "an apparent plan by security and intelligence agencies to plot violent attacks to terrorize citizens and then attempt to link these incidents to the peaceful protesters".

The authorities have accused Morsi's supporters of employing violence since he was removed from power following mass protests against his rule. More than 100 people, most of them Morsi supporters, have been killed since then. The Muslim Brotherhood says it has not and will not resort to violence.

With many of its top leaders in jail and Morsi in military detention, the Brotherhood says its supporters are being attacked by plain-clothes agents deployed by the authorities - a charge denied by security officials.

Overnight, at least two more people died in the streets of Cairo in protests against Morsi's ouster. That followed nine fatalities in the capital on Tuesday - bloodshed underscoring the depth of the crisis facing Egypt and the interim government.

[ramana]

X-post...

A fact hitherto unhighlighted in western media coverage of egypt.

Morsi’s Decision to Cut Ties with Syria instead of Zionist Regime Rages Egyptians
Head of Mission Interest Section of the Arab Republic of Egypt in Tehran pointed out the ousted President of Egypt, Morsi’s decision as to cut Cairo’s ties with Syria and to close down Damascus embassy in Cairo and said: “The decision erupted the fury and anger of the Egyptian nation.”
Khaled Emara, head of the Interest Section of the Arab Republic of Egypt in Tehran called the recent demonstrations in Cairo and other major cities of Egypt as “normal” and “a part of the political trend” as well as “essential” for peace in the country and emphasized that Egyptian law guarantees the right to stage peaceful demonstrations and freedom of speech for the people.
He rejected that a coup or a new revolution has occurred in Egypt saying “what has recently taken place in Egypt is one of the waves of the January 25th revolution and the army has stepped up to support peaceful movements by the nation, providing security for the people.”
...

Regarding Morsi’s, the ousted President’s decision to cut Cairo’s ties with Syria and to close Damascus embassy in Cairo he stated that: “The decision erupted the fury and anger of the Egyptian nation.”
Emara further added: “People are saying why ties with Syria should be cut while relations with Israel are maintained, and in fact they are right.”

http://www.islamicinvitationturkey.com/ ... egyptians/

http://sana.sy/eng/337/2013/07/23/493738.htm

Al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra terrorists confess to perpetrating terrorist acts

Finally a mischievous label actually helps in a mask falling off
revealing the real movers&shakers behind al-keeda

Hezbollah gets “terrorist” label for fighting al-Qaeda

On Monday, the European Union formally labeled Hezbollah a “terrorist” group.


Why?

Because Hezbollah has gone to war with al-Qaeda.

But wait a minute - wasn't al-Qaeda supposed to be the worst terrorist group in the world? Isn't the West leading a “global war on terror” whose main target is al-Qaeda? Shouldn't the West be thanking Hezbollah, and showering it with rewards, for turning against global terrorist enemy number one?

Apparently not.

Al-Qaeda is now the West's darling in Syria. So anybody who resists al-Qaeda - as Hezbollah recently decided to do - is a “terrorist.”

The irony doesn't get any thicker than that.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/07/23 ... g-alqaeda/

So one of the forces for Egypt's regime change was the public anger at Morsi cutting ties to Assad's Syria.
This means one of the drivers was modern spirit in the Egyptians against the antediluvian Islamists trying to overthrow Assad in Syria.


By same token it is a modernist reaction to the antediluvian MB in power.


The reaction against Islamism has to come from Egypt the cauldron of the Middle East.

[SSridhar]

By same token it is a modernist reaction to the antediluvian MB in power.

The reaction against Islamism has to come from Egypt the cauldron of the Middle East.

But, Ramana, nearly 70% of the seats in the elections went to MB & Al Nour, in an election that was *not* rigged and that saw huge participation too. I am therefore puzzled by two things:

1. If an overwhelming majority of Egyptians supported these two fanatical parties a few months ago having known their ultra-orthodoxy and ideology for decades, what were they expecting to happen differently ? Why are the people surprised by MB's actions ? ? It was not that the Egyptian electorate had no ‘liberal’ alternatives to choose from.

2. A group of Tamarod Egyptians has been able to depose the ruler in the face of such overwhelming majority and the majority has so far been able to organize only sporadic counter-attack. It is for sure that the Army has been behind the Tamarod from the beginning. The GCC has been behind the Army. Who else is behind the GCC because the Gulf countries, by themselves, are incapable of effecting such an operation.

[ramana]

They wanted to get rid off the Mubarak system and MB was the only viable large alternative. Once they got elected they realised MB is not what they want.

Its like Pakis elect JeI to power after the military quits!

This is why the French have two rounds of electioins to prevent a electoral coup.

Behind ever regime change anywhere there is a US hand.

Mile Copeland, in "Game of Nations"

Soon after WWII US realised they need regime changes at will to further their interests. So being very through they came with a coup playbook. It was first tried out in Syria in early 1950s.

Basic elements are:

Find street thugs to stage unrest about an issue of opportunity
Subvert the military to interevene or not intervene
Quickly restore a puppet civlian adminsitration and invite US aid for development and milatary aid to stave off the disgruntled or boori nazar neighbors.

With time they learnt to build in "plausible deniablity" by having early petty backers whom they back such that the changed regime is palatable to the masses.

[RamaY]

^ Rji,

The idea of regime change is modern incarnation of conquest and colonization using local power players.

Thus west is still trying to colonize and occupy rest of the world and the new way of accumulating wealth was thru industrial revolution (then) and financial services (now).

[ramana]

Yes. Its a 3D pyramid with the capstone being the Anglo-Saxon leader.
The US has immigrants so it has the gravitas which the English didn't due to low numbers and snottiness.

[shyamd]

So one of the forces for Egypt's regime change was the public anger at Morsi cutting ties to Assad's Syria.
This means one of the drivers was modern spirit in the Egyptians against the antediluvian Islamists trying to overthrow Assad in Syria.

Come on Ramana ji you should know better. So you are telling me the average Egyptian cares about Morsi cutting ties with Syria as much as he or she having bread on the table to eat? Just to prove how false it is - has the new govt re-instated relations with Syria?

[ramana]

Those are Khaled Emara's statements.

[brihaspati]

I think we are failing to realize the practicalities of mass movements.

In Egypt - the opposition to Morsi and MB is concentrated in the urban areas - where they would roughly be balanced in organizing strength. Even here, MB holds significant pull among sections of labour and small-time urban professionals or small biz, as well as marginal subsistence folks, through dawa networks.

MB's main strength lies in the hinterland of rural societies, where the mullahcracy ran unopposed even during the "secular" army regimes. But this means mobilizing the rural strength for showdowns in publicly spectacular way - in the cities covered more intensively by media - becomes more difficult a task.

In a civil war situation however the rural base will trump the cities, for the cities are always vulnerable to external supplies for their daily survival.

[shyamd]

R, Its BS. Egypt was about economics pure and simple. MB pissed off the old elite, military, women and students (many who voted the MB in). Militaries always want more money and try to maximise spending.. Is egyptian army about to give control of politics and influence over their budget (which pretty much runs a signficant portion of the economy - hotels, factories etc)?

It would take a lot of retirements and rotations for the military, where personnel remain in their posts for a relatively long time, to hand over power to civilians, who they believe are in a way idealist living things.

Then add to that Morsi building relations with enemies of regional powers.

MB won originally because of their ability to organise and be structured - the religious groups in every country are always the best organised (which will always be a surprise to some).

[Samudragupta]

I think we are failing to realize the practicalities of mass movements.

In Egypt - the opposition to Morsi and MB is concentrated in the urban areas - where they would roughly be balanced in organizing strength. Even here, MB holds significant pull among sections of labour and small-time urban professionals or small biz, as well as marginal subsistence folks, through dawa networks.

MB's main strength lies in the hinterland of rural societies, where the mullahcracy ran unopposed even during the "secular" army regimes. But this means mobilizing the rural strength for showdowns in publicly spectacular way - in the cities covered more intensively by media - becomes more difficult a task.

In a civil war situation however the rural base will trump the cities, for the cities are always vulnerable to external supplies for their daily survival.

B Ji,

This may not be the case as Assad is showing its ruthlessness in dealing with the rural Syrian Sunni heartland....

[SSridhar]

Opinion in Egypt's pro-military Alliance is Split - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

Egypt’s military-backed alliance that played a key role in toppling elected President Mohamed Morsy appears to be fraying after the Defence Minister — the face of the coup — called for rallies on Friday to support a crackdown on “violence and terrorism”.

Gen. Abdel Fatah El-Sisi’s controversial call, at a time when pro-Morsy protests are raging throughout the country, seem to have fuelled the already combustible societal tensions that have been spiralling in Egypt after the July 3 coup. Hours before the General’s address on Wednesday, one conscript was killed and 19 injured when an explosive devise went off at a police station in the Nile Delta city of Mansoura. Dozens have been killed in clashes between the military and Islamist militants in the arid Sinai Peninsula that borders the Gaza Strip, following the takeover by the military.

But the Muslim Brotherhood slammed Gen. Sisi’s recipe to restore calm in the streets of Egypt. The General was “calling for a civil war... to protect this military coup”, said senior Brotherhood figure Mohamed El-Beltagy. “He is proving that he is the actual ruler of the country, and that the President, his Vice-President and the government do not hold any power,” he observed.

Mr. Beltagy’s remarks seemed to chime with the perceptions of the Salafist Al Nour Party. The two have had a chequered relationship, but the Salafists broke ranks and supported the military in bringing down Mr. Morsy. Observers say that the relationship between the two reflects the complicated relationship between Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, a Brotherhood supporter.

The April 6 Youth Movement, which has also supported Mr. Morsy’s exit, criticised Gen. Sisi for pursuing a counterproductive course. The group counselled the military to avoid a path that would “throw us off the national reconciliation track and constitute a danger to our security”.

The Tamarod campaign — a composite youth organisation that played a leading role in anti-Morsy demonstrations — voiced its full support for the Gen. Sisi’s call. The Tamarod also called for the expulsion from Egypt of Anne Patterson, the U.S. ambassador in Egypt, widely perceived in the anti-Morsy camp as a Brotherhood supporter.

The group’s distinct anti-American stance seems to have acquired a sharper edge after the United States reneged on its earlier commitment to supply four F-16 fighter jets to the interim Egyptian government. Pentagon spokesman George Little was quoted as saying that the decision was made “given the current situation in Egypt”. The Americans are also studying whether to call the military takeover a coup — a designation that would automatically bar the flow of U.S. aid into Egypt.

Analysts point out that unlike the circumspection shown by Washington, Saudi Arabia and some of its Gulf allies, well-stocked with petro-dollars, have strongly supported the military takeover in Cairo.

These countries — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UA E — have backed their unreserved endorsement of the military backed government with pledges of a $ 12 billion cash injection .

[SSridhar]

What Morsy did not learn from Erdogan - Chinmaya Garekhan, The Hindu

Nations, like individuals, seldom learn from the mistakes, as well as successes, of others. Mohamed Morsy, the ousted President of Egypt, ought to have observed the hitherto cautious approach adopted by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Prime Minister of Turkey. Mr. Erdogan bided his time to gradually implement the Islamist agenda of his party (the Justice and Development Party) and to sideline the army’s role as the self-appointed guardian of the country’s secular character. His patient approach has paid off handsomely, with a majority of Turks backing him and his party.

Blatant acts

Mr. Morsy and the Muslim Brotherhood too commanded significant support in Egypt. They had things going for them. But, unlike in Turkey, they were in too much of a hurry to implement their Islamist agenda. The fact that the Brotherhood had been persecuted for over 50 years and waited so long for power had no doubt a lot to do with its impatience. An Islam-oriented Constitution was imposed. Brotherhood members were blatantly appointed as governors and to other key positions. While the mediation between Hamas and Fatah in Palestine was successfully brought about, the ruling regime in Syria was condemned and diplomatic ties with it were ruptured. This last step was clearly carried out on sectarian considerations as also to please the Americans since it followed closely on the heels of United States President Barack Obama’s decision to provide more weapons to the rebels, and most probably did not reflect popular sentiment.

Now, it is the turn of the Egyptian military to imbibe lessons from recent Turkish history. It must not assume that it has become genuinely popular and can act in a blatantly anti-democratic manner. The genie of people empowerment has come out of the bottle in the largest Arab country and it will definitely not acquiesce in a prolonged power grab by the army. Millions will again take to the streets if they feel their hard won power is slipping away from their hands. The ‘moderate’ Islamist regimes in Tunisia and Libya would no doubt draw their own lessons from the Egyptian upheaval.

The foreign minister of Qatar, mediating on behalf of America, suggested compromise formulae during the critical days leading up to the June 30 demonstration, in essence advising the appointment of a new Prime Minister and calling for fresh parliamentary and presidential elections within about six months. The U.S. National Security Advisor was reported to be directly involved in these last minute parleys, but Mr. Morsy either did not see the writing on the wall, under-estimated popular sentiment or/and was not permitted any flexibility by the ‘murshid,’ leader of the Brotherhood.

Mr. Morsy’s behaviour could be explained by several factors, but the failure of the U.S. to read the situation correctly and its perseverance in interfering and influencing the course of developments are intriguing. It has given billions to Egypt since 1979 when the latter’s peace treaty with Israel was concluded. This gave the Americans access to the military but not a decisive clout; indeed they have become intensely unpopular in the country. The similarity with Pakistan on this count is striking.

There is yet another parallel with Af-Pak. Like with the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Americans have never had any problem with the Brotherhood. They have had very good relations with the Brotherhood for years. {I have referred to this in my post in the TSP thread. See here.} Though Mr. Morsy had taken certain steps, such as appearing to reopen contacts with Tehran, which the U.S. would not have approved, by and large, the U.S. was comfortable with him. According to several sources in Cairo, America had played a significant role in the events, which brought Mr. Morsy to power a year ago. Brotherhood leaders have frequently travelled to Washington. President Obama himself had received Essam al-Haddad, Mr. Morsy’s influential foreign policy advisor. Another point of striking similarity with Pakistan: the generals who overthrew the elected civilian heads of government in Islamabad and Cairo were handpicked for the job by the same civilian leaders.

The one country which was most upset with America on this score was Saudi Arabia which lost no time in expressing its pleasure at the downfall of Mr. Morsy by offering a big aid package to the new regime and prevailed upon its fellow Sunni sheikhs in UAE and Kuwait to cough up similar assistance. Qatar, which had given more than $8 billion to the Morsy regime, has suffered a setback, as has Turkey. Besides the ongoing ‘Great Game’ between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the region is witnessing another struggle for influence between the Saudis and Qataris. According to some sources, the abdication of the previous emir of Qatar in favour of his son has a complicated story, with the situation in Syria having something to do with it. The most significant development, however, is the breach of trust between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. {It will mend in short time as the Saudi Royalty is far too dependent on the US}

Persecution imminent

Israel will not have to worry about the peace treaty since it was the Egyptian military which had concluded it. There is no doubt that the Muslim Brotherhood will be persecuted. The military has always, since Nasser’s coup in 1952, dealt very harshly with it. The killing of several soldiers in the Sinai by suspected Islamic extremists is unlikely to be forgotten, much less forgiven, by the army. With the Brotherhood in the doghouse, its offshoot Hamas will become nervous about its relationship with the emerging regime in Cairo. Already there are reports of the military destroying scores of ‘tunnels’, which are the lifeline for the people of Gaza. Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian leader, would no doubt welcome Hamas’ weakening. Hamas, in turn, could resort to adventurism against Israel to remain relevant.

Impact on Syria

President Bashar al-Assad of Syria will surely welcome the developments in Cairo. In any case, no one even in Washington is talking of his early exit from power. The rebels are hopelessly divided and spending their energies and ammunition on killing one another.

The military has appointed an interim President and declared a rather speedy timetable to amend the Constitution by deleting the offensive provisions and submit it to a referendum, as well as hold presidential and parliamentary elections. Egypt will not have to go to the International Monetary Fund in a hurry in view of the largesse of Saudis and others. A professional and respected economist has been appointed Prime Minister.

Mr. Morsy’s followers are following the example of the Tahrir multitude; dozens of them have died at the hands of the security forces, but their deaths have not elicited any sympathy from the ‘secular’ crowd. This is sad. The military, like in Pakistan, has huge vested interests in Egypt’s economy. However, given the mood of the people and their ability to organise massive demonstrations through social media as well as readiness to face police excesses, it is unlikely that the army would try to overstay in power.

Needed healing touch

It is imperative for the authorities in Cairo to bring about an atmosphere of some trust and harmony; in the absence of a healing touch, Egypt could descend into a prolonged period of instability and civil strife. Egyptian general Abdel Fatah El-Sisi’s speech on July 24, exhorting people to come out on the streets and support the military’s crackdown on the Brotherhood does not bode well for two reasons: it clearly demonstrates that he is in charge and calls all the shots, and it further polarises Egyptian society. Let us hope all the similarities between Egypt and Pakistan do not lead Egypt into internal turmoil, with al Qaeda-affiliated groups fishing in troubled waters.

[SSridhar]

Over 120 killed in violence in Egypt

Egypt gives every indication of spiralling into another Syria-like situation.

[Philip]

Egypt is close to civil war.The aims and objectives of the two factions are so diametrically opposite that a catastrophe is on the cards,with no moderate leaders on the MB side.As it is the Coptic Christians have felt the brunt earlier of extremist violence,now the situ is rapidly getting out of control.Only martial law for a spell might save the day.

[ramana]

I think Chinmay Gharekhan should keep monitoring Egypt for it gives a good insight into ME politics.

KSA fears MB as they could lead to overthrow of the regime.
MB gets US support as a way to thwart Arab Nationalism forces in Egypt.
KSA and US are all lies in every which way.
MB supports the anti-Assad elements in Syria
Qataris want to wag the KSA tail!

What gives them the chutzpah is something to ponder.

[RamaY]

Over 120 killed in violence in Egypt

Egypt gives every indication of spiralling into another Syria-like situation.

Egypt is close to civil war.The aims and objectives of the two factions are so diametrically opposite that a catastrophe is on the cards,with no moderate leaders on the MB side.As it is the Coptic Christians have felt the brunt earlier of extremist violence,now the situ is rapidly getting out of control.Only martial law for a spell might save the day.

I hope this will evolve into a full fledged civil war that spills across the Red Sea.

[SSridhar]

Alalrm Over Likely Comeback of Old Guard - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

The killings in the early hours on Saturday of supporters of the deposed Egyptian President, Mohamed Morsy, by the central security forces — notorious for using excessive force during the Mubarak-era — has alarmed the country’s secularist youth, who fear the return of the old guard. {Read Mubarakians}

The secularist Tamarod movement — the core supporters of the military coup that removed Mr. Morsy from power on July 3 — have sounded the alarm, apprehending the return of personnel and the discredited policing culture prevalent during the presidency of Hosni Mubarak.

For several hours till the break of dawn on Saturday, the police and armed men in plainclothes unleashed heavy violence to disperse pro-Morsy crowds that were apparently trying to block the Sixth of October bridge, Cairo’s lifeline.

By morning, 72 people were dead, according to the Health Ministry’s body count.

The Muslim Brotherhood,— Mr. Morsy’s parent organisation — however, said the story of the overnight carnage was even grimmer, claiming that the bloodbath near the bridge, not far from the pro-Morsy sit in at Nasr city, had taken 120 lives.

The short stretch of Nasr Street — famous for the spot where former President Anwar Sadat was slain during a military parade more than three decades ago — had become a virtual killing field on Saturday morning.

The New York-based Human Rights Watch reported, based on field visits by researchers and analysis of video footage, that the protesters were shot and killed over a period of at least six hours, during clashes with the security forces on a major Cairo road.

It quoted doctors and medical staff present at field hospitals where the wounded and the dead were being brought that the “majority of the bullet injuries were to the head, neck, and chest”, suggesting targeted shootings.

“They had orders to shoot to kill,” said Gehad El-Haddad, a Brotherhood spokesman.

Stunned by the casualties and the excessive use of force, Tamarod spokesman Mahmoud Badr warned in a statement that the movement does not support adoption of “extraordinary measures, or the contradiction of freedoms and human rights”.

The group has been dismayed by Saturday’s assertion during a press conference by the Interior Minister, Mohamed Ibrahim that departments of state security, used for combating extremism and monitoring political and religious activity, which had been disbanded after Mr. Mubarak’s exit had now been reinstated.

Rejecting the Minister’s stance, Mr. Badr stressed that such comments “are unacceptable” as they violate the principles of the January 25 Revolution, which had brought down Mr. Mubarak. “We will never accept the return of Mubarak’s state security [apparatus] or the chasing of political activists under any name.”

The Tamarrod is confused. When 70% of Egyptians voted for MB & Al-Nour, having known their fundamentalist ideology for several decades, the remaining 30% cannot expect an Islamist government to behave in any other fashion than what Morsy did. The Tamarrod cannot hope to have the cake and eat it too. The MB is violent as the Egyptian Army, probably even more. The AL Nour may be even a notch higher. The Tamarrod has to either take it or leave it. There is no middle ground.

The decision to allow the political offshoot FJP of the violent MB was fateful and the relaxation of restrictions on the MB expecting it to have turned a new leaf undermined the Egyptian system. The recent elections have shown that the majority of Egyptians are supporting the Islamists and their goals. There will be only further deterioration now. The MB is known to have penetrated the Army and the situation is going to be very dangerous.