West Asia News and Discussions

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RSoami
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by RSoami »

videos and thousands of social media reports

What is next? bombing another state on the basis of facebook posts, likes and shares.
If Kerry had any evidence he would have shared with the Brits which would have helped Cameroon.
Apart from dancing naked on the Statue of Liberty celebrating.
US is under tremendous pressure from the Saudis to intervene. All this drama is one way or the other related to that.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by eklavya »

brihaspati wrote:
This is an assessment report and not any compilation or link to primary resources on which this supposed conclusion was drawn.
Either you are in crime and criminal denial mode, or the US government is in "crime and crime concoction mode". You should write to your congressman.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by brihaspati »

eklavya
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by eklavya »

RSoami wrote:
videos and thousands of social media reports

What is next? bombing another state on the basis of facebook posts, likes and shares.
If Kerry had any evidence he would have shared with the Brits which would have helped Cameroon.
Apart from dancing naked on the Statue of Liberty celebrating.
US is under tremendous pressure from the Saudis to intervene. All this drama is one way or the other related to that.
From the US government report:
In addition to U.S. intelligence information, there are accounts from international and Syrian medical personnel; videos; witness accounts; thousands of social media reports from at least 12 different locations in the Damascus area; journalist accounts; and reports from highly credible nongovernmental organizations.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by eklavya »

brihaspati wrote:Who is using what?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Iqns5xeoYk
From the US government report:
We assess that the scenario in which the opposition executed the attack on August 21 is highly unlikely. The body of information used to make this assessment includes intelligence pertaining to the regime’s preparations for this attack and its means of delivery, multiple streams of intelligence about the attack itself and its effect, our post-attack observations, and the differences between the capabilities of the regime and the opposition. Our high confidence assessment is the strongest position that the U.S. Intelligence Community can take short of confirmation. We will continue to seek additional information to close gaps in our understanding of what took place.
The Syrian regime has the types of munitions that we assess were used to carry out the attack on August 21, and has the ability to strike simultaneously in multiple locations. We have seen no indication that the opposition has carried out a large-scale, coordinated rocket and artillery attack like the one that occurred on August 21.
Last edited by eklavya on 31 Aug 2013 03:41, edited 1 time in total.
brihaspati
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by brihaspati »

eklavya wrote: Either you are in crime and criminal denial mode, or the US government is in "crime and crime concoction mode". You should write to your congressman.
Claiming something vaguely without evidence - on issues of mass-murder, shows the highest degree of criminal mentality. The US government can justify its lies - if any - in the future, against supposed national interests.

When you as an individual is parroting such government claims and endorsing it as your own without citing/acknowledging having seen actual source evidence - then either you make US national interests your own, or you are individually a criminal : since according to you denying such claims is criminality, therefore making such false claims should also prove you are a criminal.

If it is the former, then are you now also serving US national interests in addition to UK? Are you or are you not a criminal in doing so if you hold Indian passport and nationality unless Indian national interests also coincide with UK and US national interests?

You must have learned this habit of uncalled for personal aggression under protection of seniors who protected you from consequences. It also indicates typically growing up in hierarchical command structure environments where parents or fathers hold rank and authority merely by position given from the top, and not needing winning that leadership directly by support from "below". Whoever protected you did ill, and was likely himself/herself an abuser of position and power or rank - hence the condoning of unjustified arrogance and abuse.

This does not work outside very limited circles and without state support. So cut out the personal pre-emptive abuses.
Last edited by brihaspati on 31 Aug 2013 03:44, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by brihaspati »

eklavya wrote:
brihaspati wrote:Who is using what?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Iqns5xeoYk
From the US government report:
We assess that the scenario in which the opposition executed the attack on August 21 is highly unlikely. The body of information used to make this assessment includes intelligence pertaining to the regime’s preparations for this attack and its means of delivery, multiple streams of intelligence about the attack itself and its effect, our post-attack observations, and the differences between the capabilities of the regime and the opposition. Our high confidence assessment is the strongest position that the U.S. Intelligence Community can take short of confirmation. We will continue to seek additional information to close gaps in our understanding of what took place.
Obviously these "journalists" exclude people like Dale and yes, many others who do not agree with the Bandar-Obama line.

Curiously - the report itself covers its own gluteals, by giving the phrase "short of confirmation". You on the other, like a typical courtier - went ahead and "confirmed". Do you read everything that you post?
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by eklavya »

^^^
So you think the US government is lying to the US people and the world?
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by eklavya »

brihaspati wrote:Do you read everything that you post?
Yes, and so do you :rotfl:
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by brihaspati »

eklavya wrote:^^^
So you think the US government is lying to the US people and the world?
It has not provided source evidence. Those that appear "independently" on the net, are dubious because often they cannot be independently verified, and they often also come from cut-and-paste jobs from islamist and pro-islamist western sources.

Since there is precedence of US providing false evidence [a vial of supposed WMD by an otherwise clean US military high-up in Saddam case] and claiming "strong evidence" and grounds to assess threat existence - and later shown to be BS - this leads us to doubt this claim too.
eklavya wrote:
brihaspati wrote:Do you read everything that you post?
Yes, and so do you :rotfl:
Nothing amusing about the real point. The report stops short of "confirmation". You confirmed on their behalf that Assad "gassed".
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by eklavya »

What do the words "high confidence" mean to you?

Read again:
The United States Government assesses with high confidence that the Syrian government carried out a chemical weapons attack in the Damascus suburbs on August 21, 2013. We further assess that the regime used a nerve agent in the attack. These all-source assessments are based on human, signals, and geospatial intelligence as well as a significant body of open source reporting.
Another view:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23906913
David Kay
Weapons expert, ex-Iraq Survey Group

There is no doubt that a chemical weapons attack took place but not such a compelling case on who did it. The evidence tying this attack directly to the Assad regime was largely circumstantial and asserted - not revealed.

What we would like are the details of the conversations, who carried them out and the background. This is one of the conundrums of intelligence - the reluctance of the people who collect it to reveal in detail what they collected because of the fear of loss of sources and methods.
Key US intelligence findings
- Attack on 21 August killed 1,429 people, including 426 children
- Syrian military chemical-weapons personnel were operating in the area in the three days before the attack
- Satellite evidence shows rockets launched from government-held areas 90 minutes before first report of chemical attack
- 100 videos attributed to the attack show symptoms consistent with exposure to nerve agent
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by brihaspati »

Regarding social media as proof:
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2 ... l-networks
Revealed: US spy operation that manipulates social media

Military's 'sock puppet' software creates fake online identities to spread pro-American propaganda
Jeff Jarvis: Washington shows the morals of a clumsy spammer

Nick Fielding and Ian Cobain
The Guardian, Thursday 17 March 2011 13.19 GMT

Gen David Petraeus has previously said US online psychological operations are aimed at 'countering extremist ideology and propaganda'. Photograph: Cliff Owen/AP

The US military is developing software that will let it secretly manipulate social media sites by using fake online personas to influence internet conversations and spread pro-American propaganda.

A Californian corporation has been awarded a contract with United States Central Command (Centcom), which oversees US armed operations in the Middle East and Central Asia, to develop what is described as an "online persona management service" that will allow one US serviceman or woman to control up to 10 separate identities based all over the world.

The project has been likened by web experts to China's attempts to control and restrict free speech on the internet. Critics are likely to complain that it will allow the US military to create a false consensus in online conversations, crowd out unwelcome opinions and smother commentaries or reports that do not correspond with its own objectives.

The discovery that the US military is developing false online personalities – known to users of social media as "sock puppets" – could also encourage other governments, private companies and non-government organisations to do the same.

The Centcom contract stipulates that each fake online persona must have a convincing background, history and supporting details, and that up to 50 US-based controllers should be able to operate false identities from their workstations "without fear of being discovered by sophisticated adversaries".

Centcom spokesman Commander Bill Speaks said: "The technology supports classified blogging activities on foreign-language websites to enable Centcom to counter violent extremist and enemy propaganda outside the US."

He said none of the interventions would be in English, as it would be unlawful to "address US audiences" with such technology, and any English-language use of social media by Centcom was always clearly attributed. The languages in which the interventions are conducted include Arabic, Farsi, Urdu and Pashto.

Centcom said it was not targeting any US-based web sites, in English or any other language, and specifically said it was not targeting Facebook or Twitter.

Once developed, the software could allow US service personnel, working around the clock in one location, to respond to emerging online conversations with any number of co-ordinated messages, blogposts, chatroom posts and other interventions. Details of the contract suggest this location would be MacDill air force base near Tampa, Florida, home of US Special Operations Command.

Centcom's contract requires for each controller the provision of one "virtual private server" located in the United States and others appearing to be outside the US to give the impression the fake personas are real people located in different parts of the world.

It also calls for "traffic mixing", blending the persona controllers' internet usage with the usage of people outside Centcom in a manner that must offer "excellent cover and powerful deniability".

The multiple persona contract is thought to have been awarded as part of a programme called Operation Earnest Voice (OEV), which was first developed in Iraq as a psychological warfare weapon against the online presence of al-Qaida supporters and others ranged against coalition forces. Since then, OEV is reported to have expanded into a $200m programme and is thought to have been used against jihadists across Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Middle East.

OEV is seen by senior US commanders as a vital counter-terrorism and counter-radicalisation programme. In evidence to the US Senate's armed services committee last year, General David Petraeus, then commander of Centcom, described the operation as an effort to "counter extremist ideology and propaganda and to ensure that credible voices in the region are heard". He said the US military's objective was to be "first with the truth".

This month Petraeus's successor, General James Mattis, told the same committee that OEV "supports all activities associated with degrading the enemy narrative, including web engagement and web-based product distribution capabilities".

Centcom confirmed that the $2.76m contract was awarded to Ntrepid, a newly formed corporation registered in Los Angeles. It would not disclose whether the multiple persona project is already in operation or discuss any related contracts.

Nobody was available for comment at Ntrepid.

In his evidence to the Senate committee, Gen Mattis said: "OEV seeks to disrupt recruitment and training of suicide bombers; deny safe havens for our adversaries; and counter extremist ideology and propaganda." He added that Centcom was working with "our coalition partners" to develop new techniques and tactics the US could use "to counter the adversary in the cyber domain".

According to a report by the inspector general of the US defence department in Iraq, OEV was managed by the multinational forces rather than Centcom.

Asked whether any UK military personnel had been involved in OEV, Britain's Ministry of Defence said it could find "no evidence". The MoD refused to say whether it had been involved in the development of persona management programmes, saying: "We don't comment on cyber capability."

OEV was discussed last year at a gathering of electronic warfare specialists in Washington DC, where a senior Centcom officer told delegates that its purpose was to "communicate critical messages and to counter the propaganda of our adversaries".

Persona management by the US military would face legal challenges if it were turned against citizens of the US, where a number of people engaged in sock puppetry have faced prosecution.

Last year a New York lawyer who impersonated a scholar was sentenced to jail after being convicted of "criminal impersonation" and identity theft.

It is unclear whether a persona management programme would contravene UK law. Legal experts say it could fall foul of the Forgery and Counterfeiting Act 1981, which states that "a person is guilty of forgery if he makes a false instrument, with the intention that he or another shall use it to induce somebody to accept it as genuine, and by reason of so accepting it to do or not to do some act to his own or any other person's prejudice". However, this would apply only if a website or social network could be shown to have suffered "prejudice" as a result.

• This article was amended on 18 March 2011 to remove references to Facebook and Twitter, introduced during the editing process, and to add a comment from Centcom, received after publication, that it is not targeting those sites.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Kati »

eklavya wrote:^^^
So you think the US government is lying to the US people and the world?

PLEASE don't kid yourself.

The rest of the world is not buying unkil's cr@p any more.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by brihaspati »

eklavya wrote:What do the words "high confidence" mean to you?

Read again:
The United States Government assesses with high confidence that the Syrian government carried out a chemical weapons attack in the Damascus suburbs on August 21, 2013. We further assess that the regime used a nerve agent in the attack. These all-source assessments are based on human, signals, and geospatial intelligence as well as a significant body of open source reporting.
Yes - that in legal terms would still allow them to escape, as "high confidence" that "Assad gassed" is not the same as "Assad gassed".

You missed all the subtle linguistic cues within the document that shows, whoever documented this - took legal advice that will allow them to deny "confirmation" if challenged in the future with clinching counter evidence. This shows that they are very much aware of the weakness of their case, and know that a lot is fabricated and possibly never provable.

Again they can justify this behaviour as a "nation" and national "strategic justification". Can you justify the same as an individual?
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by eklavya »

brihaspati wrote:
eklavya wrote: Either you are in crime and criminal denial mode, or the US government is in "crime and crime concoction mode". You should write to your congressman.
You must have learned this habit of uncalled for personal aggression under protection of seniors who protected you from consequences.
What did you find aggressive. I was being friendly.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by eklavya »

brihaspati wrote: This shows that they are very much aware of the weakness of their case, and know that a lot is fabricated and possibly never provable.
"High Confidence" means to you that they know that the evidence is "fabricated"? :rotfl:
brihaspati wrote: Again they can justify this behaviour as a "nation" and national "strategic justification". Can you justify the same as an individual?
So, you are saying the US government is lying and making up everything below:
Preparation:

We have intelligence that leads us to assess that Syrian chemical weapons personnel – including personnel assessed to be associated with the SSRC – were preparing chemical munitions prior to the attack. In the three days prior to the attack, we collected streams of human, signals and geospatial intelligence that reveal regime activities that we assess were associated with preparations for a chemical weapons attack.

Syrian chemical weapons personnel were operating in the Damascus suburb of ‘Adra from Sunday, August 18 until early in the morning on Wednesday, August 21 near an area that the regime uses to mix chemical weapons, including sarin. On August 21, a Syrian regime element prepared for a chemical weapons attack in the Damascus area, including through the utilization of gas masks. Our intelligence sources in the Damascus area did not detect any indications in the days prior to the attack that opposition affiliates were planning to use chemical weapons.

The Attack:

Multiple streams of intelligence indicate that the regime executed a rocket and artillery attack against the Damascus suburbs in the early hours of August 21. Satellite detections corroborate that attacks from a regime-controlled area struck neighborhoods where the chemical attacks reportedly occurred – including Kafr Batna, Jawbar, ‘Ayn Tarma, Darayya, and Mu’addamiyah. This includes the detection of rocket launches from regime controlled territory early in the morning, approximately 90 minutes before the first report of a chemical attack appeared in social media. The lack of flight activity or missile launches also leads us to conclude that the regime used rockets in the attack.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by RamaY »

Only a fool believes US/UK intelligence when it comes to invading/punishing other nations.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by brihaspati »

eklavya wrote:
brihaspati wrote: This shows that they are very much aware of the weakness of their case, and know that a lot is fabricated and possibly never provable.
"High Confidence" means to you that they know that the evidence is "fabricated"? :rotfl:
It is to leave the possibility of denial when shown that Assad did not really do it. They will be able to say that they had "high confidence" based on what evidence was provided/appeared to them at that time point - but they had never "confirmed". You can laugh and rotfl - but you were caught out napping in noticing your own quote excusing in small print "short of confirmation".
brihaspati wrote: Again they can justify this behaviour as a "nation" and national "strategic justification". Can you justify the same as an individual?
So, you are saying the US government is lying and making up everything below:
Question was whether you can "confirm" when the writers of the document "stops" short of confirmation. You wrote "Assad gassed".

As for the rest of what you quoted - it is still not primary source. So we cannot independently evaluate their origins/reliability. This evidence does not concern US authorities - or US personnel, so to make their claims more credible given the precedence of lying on such cases as in Iraq, if the sources were placed under independent verification - even at the UN level, things could be taken more seriously.

All that the report gives - is a series of summaries and views. Not source material. Especially problematic is the ref to "social media" and "journalists" and "reputable international NGO's" . Much of it can be questioned on the basis of existing public domain pointers to compromised sources of the above.

Note for example the "rocket attack" evidence. After some time reports of "chemical weapons" come in. Combining for example the possibility provided by the journalist Dale, that Saudi supplied chemical weapons were stored in the same area in underground tunnel which might not have been built to survive military grade artillery - an alternative could be the "accidental" explosion of these storage and their release, and hence contamination or death of human coming in contact or in the vicinity.

Now this might not have been the reality. On the other hand this might have also been the reality. Making onlee one conclusion by linking two time separated observations - could onlee be done by denying the possibility of Saudi chemical weapons and their supply to the Islamists.

Dale is also a journalist - on the ground - works for a reputed international media outlet. Should the likes of such personnel's report be also under consideration? When alternatives that are embarrassing for the US-Saudi connection are omitted from consideration from such "documentary" evidence, we have to doubt the integrity and credibility of such documents.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by brihaspati »

For GOI, this should also be a wake up call. Once Saudi's have chemical weapons - if they really have it - the Pakis and islamists will get them too.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by eklavya »

brihaspati wrote:You can laugh and rotfl - but you were caught out napping in noticing your own quote excusing in small print "short of confirmation".
:rotfl: you are clutching at straws my friend to defend the indefensible. You know very well Assad gassed his people, but you are having trouble acknowledging it for reasons best known to you. I am not in the napping business, as you know well, and nor am I in the business of making excuses for war criminals that have committed grotesque crimes against humanity.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Johann »

Only 11% of the British public would support participation in an attack on Syria according to the polls. That's not surprising given the widely seen video footage of FSA cannibalism, the lingering widespread anger and disgust over Iraq, and the feeling that domestic priorities should come first in the current austerity era. Labour's conduct on Iraq deeply damaged their standing with the public as a whole, not just Muslims - this vote was an opportunity for them to distance itself from the Tony Blair era, and they took it.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by eklavya »

Johann, Ed Miliband got the politics right, but proved beyond doubt his insuitability for the post of PM.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by chanakyaa »

[quote="""]^^^
So you think the U$ government is lying to the U$ people and the world?[/quote]

I thought this websie was for mature (18+) users. Didn't realize kids are allowed too.... :rotfl:
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by eklavya »

^^^^
I think you may be getting this forum mixed up with other 18+ sites in your favourites.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Johann »

Eklavya, the heart of the unclassified JIC assessment reads as follows
It is not possible for the opposition to have carried out a CW attack on this scale. The regime has used CW on a smaller scale on at least 14 occasions in the past. There is some intelligence to suggest regime culpability in this attack. These factors make it highly likely that the Syrian regime was responsible.
In short the positive evidence linking the regime to previous attacks is stronger than the evidence linking the regime to this particular attack. Rather what the case depends on this time is the absence of available evidence that groups like Jabhat al-Nusra have the capability conduct an attack on this scale. In that sense the assessment itself makes no attempt to disguise the limits of the evidence. That is why the reports coming in from Dave Gavlak, the senior AP correspondent in Amman about an accident with CWs supplied by the Saudis to Jabhat al-Nusra are so important. Now obviously there's a lot of hearsay and rumour on the street at a time of war, including deliberate disinformation, but these are very specific, and coming from people who seem to have been close to the events on the ground.

I don't think this attack would just be about CW use, nor about regime change. Its just like the first NATO strikes against the Bosnian Serbs in 1994-95. Its a boiling over of the US political class's anger and frustration over appearing impotent in the face of a situation they fundamentally dislike - i.e. two years of slaughter by a government that there has been mutual hostility with over 40 years. They need to prove to themselves that they have the power to shape situations. It is an attempt at gunboat diplomacy.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Johann »

eklavya wrote:Johann, Ed Miliband got the politics right, but proved beyond doubt his insuitability for the post of PM.
Harold Wilson kept the UK out of Vietnam (despite SEATO obligations that dragged Australia and New Zealand in), and got to be PM twice. He also happened to be the Queen's favourite prime minister. The only reason he didn't serve longer was early onset Alzheimer's.

Just a few weeks before people were criticising Ed Miliband for a lack for fire in his leadership, and there was talk of a leadership challenge unless he pulled his socks up. His action on the Syria vote has been fundamentally popular here, and has won him respect in drawing rooms and pubs across the country, and in plenty of quarters around the world. If anything he's actually improved Labour's prospects as well as his own with his leadership on the issue.
Last edited by Johann on 31 Aug 2013 05:36, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by brihaspati »

eklavya wrote:
brihaspati wrote:You can laugh and rotfl - but you were caught out napping in noticing your own quote excusing in small print "short of confirmation".
:rotfl: you are clutching at straws my friend to defend the indefensible. You know very well Assad gassed his people, but you are having trouble acknowledging it for reasons best known to you. I am not in the napping business, as you know well, and nor am I in the business of making excuses for war criminals that have committed grotesque crimes against humanity.
Sure - having been caught out not noting the disclaimer - it is you who are clutching at the straws. You still have not been able to justify your statement confirming that Assad did it while the "document" consciously stops "short".

If you are convinced that Assad "gassed" his people, but cannot provide anything other than an "assessment" by the US gov which does not detail primary sources and evidence for independent verification - then onus falls on you to provide that evidence.

Who are not "war criminals" themselves who have taken "grotesque" action against population - that want now to take action against Assad? If you are not saying anything against them - are you not then by your logic an excuser of war crimes?
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by eklavya »

Johann wrote:Eklavya, the heart of the unclassified JIC assessment reads as follows
It is not possible for the opposition to have carried out a CW attack on this scale. The regime has used CW on a smaller scale on at least 14 occasions in the past. There is some intelligence to suggest regime culpability in this attack. These factors make it highly likely that the Syrian regime was responsible.
In short the positive evidence linking the regime to previous attacks is stronger than the evidence linking the regime to this particular attack. Rather what the case depends on this time is the absence of available evidence that groups like Jabhat al-Nusra have the capability conduct an attack on this scale. In that sense the assessment itself makes no attempt to disguise the limits of the evidence. That is why the reports coming in from Dave Gavlak, the senior AP correspondent in Amman about an accident with CWs supplied by the Saudis to Jabhat al-Nusra are so important. Now obviously there's a lot of hearsay and rumour on the street at a time of war, including deliberate disinformation, but these are very specific, and coming from people who seem to have been close to the events on the ground.

I don't think this attack would just be about CW use, nor about regime change. Its just like the first NATO strikes against the Bosnian Serbs in 1994-95. Its a boiling over of the US political class's anger and frustration over appearing impotent in the face of a situation they fundamentally dislike - i.e. two years of slaughter by a government that there has been mutual hostility with over 40 years. They need to prove to themselves that they have the power to shape situations. It is an attempt at gunboat diplomacy.
I don't agree with your assessment of the US motivations. The US political class has had plenty of opportunity, which they have steadfastly refused to take, to intervene in Syria. Obama identified chemical weapons usage as a red line, and is intervening against all his instincts.

No final decision but no US troops in Syria: Obama
"We're not considering any open ended commitment. We're not considering any boots on the ground approach," Obama told reporters in a brief interaction with the leaders of three Baltic countries.

"There is a certain weariness, given Afghanistan. There is a certain suspicion of any military action post-Iraq. And I very much appreciate that," Obama said.

"But its important for us to recognise that when over a thousand people are killed, including hundreds of innocent children, through the use of a weapon that 98 or 99 per cent of humanity says should not be used even in war, and there is no action, then we're sending a signal. That is a danger to our national security," he said.

"And in no event are we considering any kind of military action that would involve boots on the ground, that would involve a long-term campaign. But we are looking at the possibility of a limited, narrow act that would help make sure that not only Syria but others around the world understand that the international community cares about maintaining this chemical weapons ban and norm," Obama said.
Also, the case that the CW were used by the regime is much stronger than what you have made out above. Read the US government report:

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/7 ... -syria.pdf
We assess with high confidence that the Syrian government carried out the chemical weapons attack against opposition elements in the Damascus suburbs on August 21. We assess that the scenario in which the opposition executed the attack on August 21 is highly unlikely. The body of information used to make this assessment includes intelligence pertaining to the regime’s preparations for this attack and its means of delivery, multiple streams of intelligence about the attack itself and its effect, our post-attack observations, and the differences between the capabilities of the regime and the opposition. Our high confidence assessment is the strongest position that the U.S. Intelligence Community can take short of confirmation. We will continue to seek additional information to close gaps in our understanding of what took place.
We intercepted communications involving a senior official intimately familiar with the offensive who confirmed that chemical weapons were used by the regime on August 21 and was concerned with the U.N. inspectors obtaining evidence. On the afternoon of August 21, we have intelligence that Syrian chemical weapons personnel were directed to cease operations.
eklavya
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by eklavya »

Johann wrote:Harold Wilson kept the UK out of Vietnam (despite SEATO obligations that dragged Australia and New Zealand in), and got to be PM twice. He also happened to be the Queen's favourite prime minister. The only reason he didn't serve longer was early onset Alzheimer's.

Just a few weeks before people were criticising Ed Miliband for a lack for fire in his leadership, and there was talk of a leadership challenge unless he pulled his socks up. His action on the Syria vote has been fundamentally popular here, and has won him respect in drawing rooms and pubs across the country, and in plenty of quarters around the world. If anything he's actually improved Labour's prospects as well as his own with his leadership on the issue.
Miliband has comprehensively demonstrated that he lacks the qualities of statesmanship. Basically, an opportunistic chancer. Can't see him becoming PM or any world leader treating him with respect.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Johann »

eklavya wrote:I don't agree with your assessment of the US motivations. The US political class has had plenty of opportunity, which they have steadfastly refused to take, to intervene in Syria. Obama identified chemical weapons usage as a red line, and is intervening against all his instincts.
Eklavya, if as the JIC has said the regime has used chemical weapons on 14 previous occasions, its made Obama's warnings of a red line appear so much hot air.

If you were the regime, wouldn't you be tempted to use them more heavily? And if you were the Americans wouldn't you be worried that your authority in the region was being undermined, and in need of shoring up?

This is a dangerous ladder of escalation Obama has got himself into. He doesn't want to have to invade Syria, but if he is going to put US credibility on the line, he will be forced to keep escalating or risk cutting his losses and looking irrelevant. The regime's survival is at stake, and like North Korea, it will go as far as it has to in order to survive. And Iran, Hezbollah, and Iraqi Shia militias will go just as far.

This failure to properly evaluate the means and the will of the opponent, and the escalation ladder is exactly how the US got itself stuck in the sideshow of South Vietnam for a decade.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by eklavya »

brihaspati wrote:If you are not saying anything against them - are you not then by your logic an excuser of war crimes?
No sir, the people making excuses for war criminals are those ignoring the huge body of evidence that shows with a high degree of confidence that the crime of murdering 1,400 people with chemical weapons was committed by the Assad regime's forces.

The US government report says:
We have a body of information, including past Syrian practice, that leads us to conclude that regime officials were witting of and directed the attack on August 21
If your conscience rests easy with reading the above and concluding that the world should not take action against Assad, then so be it.

If you think the government of the country you live in are comprehensive liars and are fabricating an excuse to thump a blameless regime, then so be it too.

I will respectfully but strongly disagree.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Johann »

eklavya wrote:Miliband has comprehensively demonstrated that he lacks the qualities of statesmanship. Basically, an opportunistic chancer. Can't see him becoming PM or any world leader treating him with respect.
Why on earth would it be opportunism to act in line with 89% of the British population, and his own previous stance on Iraq? Sounds like democracy at work to me.

And just which world leader is aghast at the fact that the leader of the opposition has decided not to participate? Apart from Obama, Erdogan (who has deep problems with large sections of his own population) and King Abdallah.

Relax, administrations and governments come and go in Whitehall and the Beltway. Come back and continue this discussion in a decade.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by eklavya »

Johann wrote:
eklavya wrote:I don't agree with your assessment of the US motivations. The US political class has had plenty of opportunity, which they have steadfastly refused to take, to intervene in Syria. Obama identified chemical weapons usage as a red line, and is intervening against all his instincts.
Eklavya, if as the JIC has said the regime has used chemical weapons on 14 previous occasions, its made Obama's warnings of a red line appear so much hot air.

If you were the regime, wouldn't you be tempted to use them more heavily? And if you were the Americans wouldn't you be worried that your authority in the region was being undermined, and in need of shoring up?

This is a dangerous ladder of escalation Obama has got himself into. He doesn't want to have to invade Syria, but if he is going to put US credibility on the line, he will be forced to keep escalating or risk cutting his losses and looking irrelevant. The regime's survival is at stake, and like North Korea, it will go as far as it has to in order to survive. And Iran, Hezbollah, and Iraqi Shia militias will go just as far.

This failure to properly evaluate the means and the will of the opponent, and the escalation ladder is exactly how the US got itself stuck in the sideshow of South Vietnam for a decade.
Johann, the British government, by virtue of being an irrelevant third (heading for fourth) rate power, have the luxury of watching from the sidelines. Secretly, I bet Cameron is pleased as punch that Miliband got him out of a tricky situation. Cameron can tell Obama and Sam Cam, "look, I tried my best, but that bloke Miliband has no principles and went back on his word."

What exactly do YOU think the US should do in the face of this crime? Nothing?

Would that make you feel better: 1,400 people gassed to death and do nothing?

How will history judge Obama and the US if 1,400 people are gassed to death and they do nothing?
Surya
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Surya »

so Friday came and went

sigh pop corn gone cold :(

will have to get another round -


anyway watching Kerry - the desperation to bomb to show their potency is so obvious - which is ironic considering kerry and vietnam etc
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by eklavya »

Johann wrote:
eklavya wrote:Miliband has comprehensively demonstrated that he lacks the qualities of statesmanship. Basically, an opportunistic chancer. Can't see him becoming PM or any world leader treating him with respect.
Why on earth would it be opportunism to act in line with 89% of the British population, and his own previous stance on Iraq? Sounds like democracy at work to me.

And just which world leader is aghast at the fact that the leader of the opposition has decided not to participate? Apart from Obama, Erdogan (who has deep problems with large sections of his own population) and King Abdallah.

Relax, administrations and governments come and go in Whitehall and the Beltway. Come back and continue this discussion in a decade.
So why was Cameron arguing for the motion? Because he misread the poll numbers? Because he doesn't want to be popular? Because the government can obviously afford another costly war?

Statesmanship calls for doing whats right, even if it is unpopular.

As Miliband is prepared to abide by this crime of 1,400 people being murdered by the Assad regime without doing anything, he has nil moral and diplomatic capital to his name. Basically he blew his chance to do what was right.

I can only imagine what his mum thinks of his latest bit of popular politics.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Johann »

eklavya wrote: What exactly do YOU think the US should do in the face of this crime? Nothing?

Would that make you feel better: 1,400 people gassed to death and do nothing?

How will history judge Obama and the US if 1,400 people are gassed to death and they do nothing?
Eklavya,

There's two elements to the Assad's use of chemical weapons that any US president has to deal with.

a) Maintaining the global taboo on WMD usage. In the case of chemical weapons, the taboo managed to survive the enormous levels of use in the Iran-Iraq war in combat, including the massacre of Iraqi Kurds at Halabja and other attacks in the Anfal campaign. Despite that the CWC treaty, and the disarming of Iraq and Libya mean that fewer states have chemical weapons than ever before.

Now if Assad had used chemical weapons on US forces, or on allies with which the US had treaty obligations, there would have to be massive and overwhelming retaliation. But third party use? A mix of public condemnations, evidence gathering, diplomatic pressure, private threats and covert action (perhaps in concert with the Israelis) would have probably been a wiser course of action. Because all the evidence suggests that it will be no more and no less effective than fly swatting, but without the risks of painting the US into a corner that it can only get out of by wading into the mess.

b) The war crimes aspect, for deliberate massacres of civilians. This attack would be just one of hundreds, perhaps thousands of massacres by the regime conducted with automatic weapons, blades, artillery and bombs. If the idea is R2P, then the US has to commit to regime change, not just fly swatting on chemical weapons. Or it can restrict itself to documenting crimes, and work towards isolation of the regime and helping prepare ICC charges.

In short, either go all out, or avoid overt military action. This inbetween option is worse than useless. It is a poorly thought out political move for a domestic audience which will not serve either international justice or US national security interests.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by chanakyaa »

......
What exactly do YOU think the US should do in the face of this crime? Nothing?

Would that make you feel better: 1,400 people gassed to death and do nothing?

How will history judge Obama and the US if 1,400 people are gassed to death and they do nothing?
Oh look!! George W. cloned himself already....Sorry, on a much serious note. Don't know who you are, but you are definitely a government insider or a six-pack average Joe who will take whatever government throws at face value and defend vigorously. Nothing wrong with that. In fact it is good thing. Wish India had people like yourself. We would not be going through so much trouble. Keep up the good work.
Surya
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Surya »

hmmm so were all WMD transgressions since WW2 punished??

or did moral outrage selectively start only in the 90s?
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by member_27444 »

What the west does in east is always right
Manish_Sharma
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Manish_Sharma »

eklavya wrote:^^^
So you think the US government is lying to the US people and the world?
:rotfl:

Brihaspati ji how dare you mistrust the US administration? Don't you know they are the epitome of truth and honesty!

Have you forgotten:

Weapons of Mass Destruction - Eyeraq - Saddam Hussein .....
Weapons of Mass Destruction - Eyeraq - Saddam Hussein .....
Weapons of Mass Destruction - Eyeraq - Saddam Hussein .....
Weapons of Mass Destruction - Eyeraq - Saddam Hussein .....

:rotfl: :rotfl:

Still you want to check from other sources?

Like these you provide:
http://www.infowars.com/rebels-admit-re ... ns-attack/
Rebels Admit Responsibility for Chemical Weapons Attack
Militants tell AP reporter they mishandled Saudi-supplied chemical weapons, causing accident

Paul Joseph Watson
Infowars.com
August 30, 2013

Syrian rebels in the Damascus suburb of Ghouta have admitted to Associated Press correspondent Dale Gavlak that they were responsible for last week’s chemical weapons incident which western powers have blamed on Bashar Al-Assad’s forces, revealing that the casualties were the result of an accident caused by rebels mishandling chemical weapons provided to them by Saudi Arabia.


“From numerous interviews with doctors, Ghouta residents, rebel fighters and their families….many believe that certain rebels received chemical weapons via the Saudi intelligence chief, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, and were responsible for carrying out the (deadly) gas attack,” writes Gavlak. (back up version here).

Rebels told Gavlak that they were not properly trained on how to handle the chemical weapons or even told what they were. It appears as though the weapons were initially supposed to be given to the Al-Qaeda offshoot Jabhat al-Nusra.

“We were very curious about these arms. And unfortunately, some of the fighters handled the weapons improperly and set off the explosions,” one militant named ‘J’ told Gavlak.

His claims are echoed by another female fighter named ‘K’, who told Gavlak, “They didn’t tell us what these arms were or how to use them. We didn’t know they were chemical weapons. We never imagined they were chemical weapons.”

Abu Abdel-Moneim, the father of an opposition rebel, also told Gavlak, “My son came to me two weeks ago asking what I thought the weapons were that he had been asked to carry,” describing them as having a “tube-like structure” while others were like a “huge gas bottle.” The father names the Saudi militant who provided the weapons as Abu Ayesha.

According to Abdel-Moneim, the weapons exploded inside a tunnel, killing 12 rebels.


“More than a dozen rebels interviewed reported that their salaries came from the Saudi government,” writes Gavlak.
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