Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 06 Feb 2014 18:31

panduranghari wrote:http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/ ... 676206.jpg

It looks to be NaMo or NaMo or Bust. There is second NaMo (Nara & Modi) option is coming up in case BJP doesn't get majority.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 06 Feb 2014 18:34

Maybe I am missing something, but there is still no news from EC about the date of the general election. When will this be declared ?

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 06 Feb 2014 19:06

^^This month the notification should come, IMO. Prolly after parl adjourns.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 06 Feb 2014 21:08

http://newsinsight.net/Startingline...2 ... age=page-1

For all their friendship, she will not support Narendra Modi’s prime minister bid, and indeed erect roadblocks. And because she pulled down the Atal Behari Vajpayee government, the institutional memory of the Bharatiya Janata Party will prevent deep engagement with her. At bottom, Jayalalithaa is fighting a purely personal battle. It will not get her to Delhi

Namo probably knows this deep down and hence the move to plunge actively into TN politics and get allies. Subramaniam Swamy is trying to convince BJP that he knows better and that she will come around to support Modi. That is the reason why he consistently trying to argue that BJP should not contest in TN and give a walk over to Jaya.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 06 Feb 2014 21:17

Rahul Kanwal ‏@rahulkanwal 3m
PROJECTED SEAT SHARE: UPA led by the Congress: 99-119; NDA led by the BJP: 202-222; Others: 212-232. #PSE #YourVote2014

Rahul Kanwal ‏@rahulkanwal 3m
NATIONAL PROJECTED VOTE SHARE (%): UPA led by the Congress: 23 (-13); NDA led by the BJP: 34 (+8): Others: 43(+5). #PSE #YourVote2014

Rahul Kanwal ‏@rahulkanwal 18m
After failed dharna at Rail Bhawan, AAP's march in UP slows down. AAP projected to win only 1 seat in NCR & bag 6% votes. #PSE #YourVote2014

Rahul Kanwal ‏@rahulkanwal 29m
While BJP is gaining under Modi in UP, it is still far away from its 1998 peak of 57 seats and 37% vote share. #PSE #YourVote2014

Rahul Kanwal ‏@rahulkanwal 30m
Uttar Pradesh: Can Modi beat Vajpayee's peak? BJP in LS (seats): 1991:51seats; 1998:57; 1999:29; 2004:10; 2014:30 seats. #PSE #YourVote2014

Rahul Kanwal ‏@rahulkanwal 43m
If Cong & BSP were to contest together they dislodge Modi's dominance in UP. Cong & BSP together are projected to bag 39/80 seats. #PSE

Rahul Kanwal ‏@rahulkanwal 44m
Cong is being routed across UP losing 17 out of its 21 seats This is the 2nd worst performance of the Cong party in UP. #PSE #YourVote2014

Rahul Kanwal ‏@rahulkanwal 45m
BJP is the only party which has a positive swing in vote share (+9%) #PSE #YourVote2014

Rahul Kanwal ‏@rahulkanwal 45m
UTTAR PRADESH: Seat share projections: INC 4(-17); BJP+ 30(+20); BSP 24(+4); SP 20(-3); RLD 1(-4) #PSE #YourVote2014

Rahul Kanwal ‏@rahulkanwal 46m
If Congress & BSP contest together: INC+BSP 39; BJP+ 25; SP 14; RLD 1; OTH+ 1. #PSE #YourVote2014

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 07 Feb 2014 08:27

muraliravi wrote:http://newsinsight.net/Startingline...2 ... age=page-1

For all their friendship, she will not support Narendra Modi’s prime minister bid, and indeed erect roadblocks. And because she pulled down the Atal Behari Vajpayee government, the institutional memory of the Bharatiya Janata Party will prevent deep engagement with her. At bottom, Jayalalithaa is fighting a purely personal battle. It will not get her to Delhi

Namo probably knows this deep down and hence the move to plunge actively into TN politics and get allies. Subramaniam Swamy is trying to convince BJP that he knows better and that she will come around to support Modi. That is the reason why he consistently trying to argue that BJP should not contest in TN and give a walk over to Jaya.

I believe the above is a correct assessment. there has been talk of CBN/Amma/etc becoming PM. neither CBN nor Amma will become PM. Maya or Mullah Mulayam might get a shot >> even here, I give more chance to Maya than Mullah. but even that will be very temporary. there will be no legacy for all these regional dreamers. they've played their part. if they step up to the PM gaddi, it will be the last stop before they sail into oblivion. think of VP, Chandrashekhar, Gujral, and Gowda. Gowda is the only who was smart enough to keep some political leverage after PM'ship (and that probably has to do with the distance of his home base from Delhi), but all others are now practically forgotten.

if these regionalists have an ounce of brain power in them, they will stick to their regions as that is how they extract their concessions from "center". that is their purpose. that is their worldview. that is what they are fit to do. that is what they will keep doing as long as they survive.

Adrija · Post by **Adrija** » 07 Feb 2014 08:57

Bhailog, the BJP donate website (donate.bjp.org) is working again, please to donate in full measure

have done my bit yesterday

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 07 Feb 2014 11:02

devesh wrote:I believe the above is a correct assessment. there has been talk of CBN/Amma/etc becoming PM. neither CBN nor Amma will become PM. Maya or Mullah Mulayam might get a shot >> even here, I give more chance to Maya than Mullah. but even that will be very temporary. there will be no legacy for all these regional dreamers.

Forget Naidoo and Motallo...neither do Mamata, Maya, or Mullah-ayam (in Sanskrit: "this mullah") have any significant chance of warming the chair soon to be vacated by Zombie. All these people have screwed the aam janata enough and need to throw in the towel.

Shri Modi will sweep all these parasites and they will be thrown in the dustbin of history.

I do hope Lalu Yadav sticks around somehow. There is no "vidushak" in all of Bharat who can compare to him. Every durbar needs a vidushak, it is too bad he has been disqualified from contesting the election and becoming the lone RJD MP.

kumarn · Post by **kumarn** » 07 Feb 2014 12:27

^^^Not to worry saar! We have now an IIT chaap lallu.

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 07 Feb 2014 14:45

Nation wants to know .. what lahori math is being used to draw pie charts @ TimesNow

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 07 Feb 2014 14:56

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 968415.cms

So Govindacharya has joined AAP. Never been a fan of him. But the article focuses on one side of Govindacharya and pottrays Kejriwal as an ideologically neutral. It overlooks the left sympathies of Govindacharya and the reason for attraction.
Are there that many in BJP/VHP et al, who are so economically left that they will jump ship?

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 07 Feb 2014 15:06

So Govindacharya has joined AAP. Never been a fan of him. But the article focuses on one side of Govindacharya and pottrays Kejriwal as an ideologically neutral. It overlooks the left sympathies of Govindacharya and the reason for attraction.
Are there that many in BJP/VHP et al, who are so economically left that they will jump ship?

I have touched upon that here in this:

http://vicharprachar.wordpress.com/2014 ... discourse/

There are many indeed who don't understand the underlying 'left'/ 'commie' version in their economic approach including those who are 'sons of soils'.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 07 Feb 2014 15:22

You have more than touched upon this, you have brought out even after the so called tumultuous events, the dramatis personae on both the sides have not much different in their economic thought. It was a nice read.
But then the next question arises, why didn't a different school of thought didn't arise after Rajaji? Why the apologetic approach to reforms from BJP, when it shouldn't be kowtowing to Nehru school of thought. If not Nehru, who else where they influenced by? Is Swadeshi movement not compatible with free market?
It will be great if you can expound on this whenever you get the chance. Thanks.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 07 Feb 2014 16:34

You have more than touched upon this, you have brought out even after the so called tumultuous events, the dramatis personae on both the sides have not much different in their economic thought. It was a nice read.
But then the next question arises, why didn't a different school of thought didn't arise after Rajaji? Why the apologetic approach to reforms from BJP, when it shouldn't be kowtowing to Nehru school of thought. If not Nehru, who else where they influenced by? Is Swadeshi movement not compatible with free market?

I did try and touch upon some points why it remained so. Death of Patel/ Rajgopalachari's inability to counter Nehru; Institutionalizing of the left/ socialist discourse; Politicization of the freebie, Caste, Religious banks by the 'secular' establishment; inability of many who opposed Nehru to go beyond opposing the superficiality into it's core polity. Just opposing the superficiality drew in people with very different outlooks to development. Even ABV couldn't break those moulds and his capacity for Institutional reform has some question marks. With Modi all these change drastically. Certainly a few years hence these reasons will be well discussed in the MSM. Why we could not smack left socialist Nehruvian discourse despite pathetic 2.5% type GDP growth rates a few decades earlier itself. But being a votary of opening up in the 80's myself i remember really banging my head up against the wall. There hardly was anyone in any political spectrum that wanted to open things up. PVNR opened up almost without any fanfare. Most BJP stalwarts then were dead against. The single line notifications were done very surreptiously. With NM the whole game is going to change. Really look forward to these next few months.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 08 Feb 2014 15:49

With CBI chargesheeting IB's special director, what would be the effect in IB? I read somewhere that IB usually allies with Congress, would the new chain of events change anything?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 08 Feb 2014 20:09

IBTL Tracker (whether they are biased or not is immaterial, I putting apples to apples here, so that we can see trend lines)

The states marked red are the ones where BJP's tally has gone down from their december tracker. Delhi is understandable (the survey was done before AAP's surprise performance, now in mid jan their report says they can detect visible signs of fatigue in AAP's support base), so overall BJP may do better in Delhi in May. I surprised that their Assam and WB numbers have gone down in 45 days. As for Gujarat, there is a marginal 1 seat decline, which could be due to poll error or as they suggest vote share stagnation. They suggest Namo do some big rallies in Gujarat.

Bihar decline is very understandable as the Jan survey says clearly that their survey takes the alliance into account this time.

For the last 4 UT's I have shaded in yellow, their latest poll is not yet complete.

If you want details on how other parties are performing, please visit their site, http://www.ibtl.in/news/exclusive/2120/ ... -poll-2014

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 08 Feb 2014 20:37

There is still room for improvement by at least 20 seats.

Yogesh · Post by **Yogesh** » 09 Feb 2014 00:40

As I had posted a day before, in eastern UP on Yadav bandhu log drifting away from sapa ..it seems the trend is similar even in yadav strongholds (central up) as IBTL writes

"A social churn is being witnessed among the backward class, including Yadavs who are found to shift towards BJP

Even the Yadavs in the hardcore loyal bases of Samajwadi Party namely Etawah, Kanpur etc are willing to vote BJP due to the Modi factor "

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Feb 2014 01:27

How much more time is DMDK going to take?

Basically NaMo needs cadre more than anything else in TN.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 09 Feb 2014 02:24

some how I am getting convinced that in Delhi and around AAP can play spoil sport. Here in UK I came across many Brown sahib from NCR who are rooting for AAP, their relatives in NCR also think that 'they are trying', they are honest'. they should be given a chance''. while ignoring and refusing to entertain debate on them. Those from Bangalore and other places are cautiously looking at AAP in Delhi. Perhaps not in South or West but likely in NCR. Fortunately there aren't many seats there

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 09 Feb 2014 05:18

IndraD wrote:Here in UK I came across many Brown sahib from NCR who are rooting for AAP, their relatives in NCR also think that 'they are trying', they are honest'. they should be given a chance''.

I wonder, how much of that impression is because of the freebies? Free water, free power can cloud your judgment or it could be that they know AAP is dishonest, but they don't care as long as they get the freebies.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 09 Feb 2014 06:11

Supratik wrote:There is still room for improvement by at least 20 seats.

The numbers predicted for UP and Bihar are inaccurate - much too low. The party will win 80-100 seats.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 09 Feb 2014 06:35

hanumadu wrote:
IndraD wrote:Here in UK I came across many Brown sahib from NCR who are rooting for AAP, their relatives in NCR also think that 'they are trying', they are honest'. they should be given a chance''.
I wonder, how much of that impression is because of the freebies? Free water, free power can cloud your judgment or it could be that they know AAP is dishonest, but they don't care as long as they get the freebies.

they are living in a world of own, disconnected with reality. some of them have told me solution to kashmir lies in peaceful dialogue with pakistan and even if needed handing over IoK (!) some aaptards think in 2019 AK will be the PM

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 09 Feb 2014 06:35

KLP Dubey wrote: The numbers predicted for UP and Bihar are inaccurate - much too low. The party will win 80-100 seats.

saar, for our own sakes, we ought to be realistic. A 80-100 haul out of the 120 in UP-Bihar will end the election in one shot. Much as I would like that to happen, its so unlikely that one cannot seriously count on it.

I'd say a 75 haul (50+25) is itself a rich reward from UP+Bihar... Sure, there's scope for pleasant surprises... like how Raj'n, drenched in a namo wave, delivered 4/5ths majority exceeding every poll and expectation.... But asking four-fifths (or even three fourths) from Up+Bihar is a bridge too far.

habal · Post by **habal** » 09 Feb 2014 06:37

Increase the price of Petrol and diesel once more and Modi will get all 120.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 09 Feb 2014 06:59

Per ITBL survey some interesting observation
1. In UP the momentum is with BJP and against SP/Cong. BSP is standing still among all this. Expect BJP to accrue some more seats. It is in the magic range of 32-36% vote share. A .5% vote share gain will give additional 5 LS seats (range 40-60 seats). The next inflection point could be if he can attract some of non- Jatav vote of BSP.
2. Bihar -No momentum business here. 90% of the voters firmed up. Seats are as per survey. However, there has been only 1 Modi rally. 10% voters still undecided. Some from Lalu and Nitish can leave and come to BJP. Booth level management can get additional few seats where contest is close.
3. Karnataka - After seeing the bottom, BJP on upswing and Cong down swing. BJP will have a bigger tally than Cong as of now. Voters in flux. If momentum continues, BJP may touch/surpass 2009 numbers. More Modi rally needed.
4. Maharastra - same fate as Ka. I believe more voter% have firmed up, less floating voters.
5. MP - Out of 3 seats - Bhuria/Kamal Nath/scINDIA, bjp IS TRYING TO GET AT LEAST 2.
6. BJP trying hard in 0 seats states - WB, NE, TN and Kerela. BJP has nothing to loose in these states. The non congress winner is not going to support him (including Amma). BJP is hoping to get seats. A least by drawing huge crowd, it is impressing crowds in MH, UP, BIHAR, KA, JH that it is the winning party, helping the turd front voters to ditch their party (as they dont see any hope for turd front) and come with the winner party.
7. JH - BJP wave
8. Orissa - This is one state any Modi wave may hurt Patnaik, who may come to BJP later. BJP maybe going slow because of this.
9.- This is a presidential/wave election. No more a sum of states. Mamta/jaya/maya and Naveen will have some say but very limited.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 09 Feb 2014 07:46

I see no advantage for Patnak not to join NDA post 2014. It is good news that he did not met TMC people came to meet him on federal front. While in long term it makes sense to dethone Patnak since BJP in the state is not producing any waves mafia may benifit from from the fall of NP.

Jharkhand and 36ghar need to be visited and nurchared. Both BJP states but need more careful management and greater resourses.

See how media created the news item of Varun Gandhi??? Lot of paid freelancers are out there to make money and 500 Cr budget is only time of the ice burge and huge expenditure must be going on.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 09 Feb 2014 07:50

Paid media has left out selected parts of Pranabda's Republic Day speech in almost every "full text" version of the speech that ridicule AAPtards and recommend BJP/NaMo. These sound bites should be hammered home at every opportunity:

*...If Indians are enraged, it is because they are witnessing corruption and waste of national resources. If governments do not remove these flaws, voters will remove governments...

*...This year, we will witness the 16th General Election to our Lok Sabha. A fractured government, hostage to whimsical opportunists, is always an unhappy eventuality. In 2014, it could be catastrophic. Each one of us is a voter; each one of us has a deep responsibility; we cannot let India down. It is time for introspection and action...

*...Government is not a charity shop. Populist anarchy cannot be a substitute for governance...

*...Our security and armed forces, backed by the steel of popular support, have proved that they can crush an enemy within; with as much felicity as they guard our frontiers. Mavericks who question the integrity of our armed services are irresponsible and should find no place in public life...

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 09 Feb 2014 07:57

So, Pranav Babu says that people should oust the present regime and not be tempted by 'populist anarchy'...which is equivalent to suggesting without naming that people should vote for NaMo.

Then, NaMo goes to Vangal and says that Pranav was stopped from being Pradhani by the dynasty.

Something cooking between NaMo and Pranav?

niran · Post by **niran** » 09 Feb 2014 08:44

muraliravi wrote:IBTL Tracker (whether they are biased or not is immaterial, I putting apples to apples here, so that we can see trend lines)

UP and Bihar numbers are way off the mark, although other state are off too but not waaaaaay off as in Bihar UP the latest trend as in 3 days ago shows UP and Bihar as 109 seats out of which 93 are in Green zone or sure shot zone. Purvanchal and Avadh Pradesh and UP Bundelkhnd Bhajapa shows clean sweep even Etawah(MSY) Rai Bareli and Amethi are currently in yellow zone or shall we say 60/40
zone in favor of Bhajapa, the West with 14 seats are still a worry over there MSY/ bhenji still have some leverages 10 seats red zone(50/50) 4 yellow zone.
Bihar 39 seats in Green zone(90/10).

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 09 Feb 2014 14:26

IndraD wrote:some how I am getting convinced that in Delhi and around AAP can play spoil sport. Here in UK I came across many Brown sahib from NCR who are rooting for AAP, their relatives in NCR also think that 'they are trying', they are honest'. they should be given a chance''. while ignoring and refusing to entertain debate on them. Those from Bangalore and other places are cautiously looking at AAP in Delhi. Perhaps not in South or West but likely in NCR. Fortunately there aren't many seats there

Pan india AAP will win 6 LS seats in 2014GE. No more!

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 09 Feb 2014 14:34

Bihar me Modi magic..we have to choose right candidate..Nitish men don't want to fight..3 candidates refused to fight..sitting MP switching sides and minister resigned to join AAP

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 09 Feb 2014 15:06

Shonu wrote:
IndraD wrote:some how I am getting convinced that in Delhi and around AAP can play spoil sport. Here in UK I came across many Brown sahib from NCR who are rooting for AAP, their relatives in NCR also think that 'they are trying', they are honest'. they should be given a chance''. while ignoring and refusing to entertain debate on them. Those from Bangalore and other places are cautiously looking at AAP in Delhi. Perhaps not in South or West but likely in NCR. Fortunately there aren't many seats there
Pan india AAP will win 6 LS seats in 2014GE. No more!

Congress has promised PM post to Mufflerman if he can win 25+.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 09 Feb 2014 15:08

I remember Nirenji is from Bihar and he may know best. But such overwhelming wins normally do not happen. The best win someout could get was in 1984 and even then TDP won 36 out of 42 in AP. So local factors can not be brushed aside in any wave. No doubt there is a HUGE WAVE. But expecting anything above 65-70% will be be unrealistic. Further both states have complexities which may not be easy to overcome and BJP at least in UP was not in top position for a long time.

habal · Post by **habal** » 09 Feb 2014 15:16

johneeG wrote:So, Pranav Babu says that people should oust the present regime and not be tempted by 'populist anarchy'...which is equivalent to suggesting without naming that people should vote for NaMo.

Then, NaMo goes to Vangal and says that Pranav was stopped from being Pradhani by the dynasty.

Something cooking between NaMo and Pranav?

their common link is their corporate sponsor chiefly. Apart from PM being someone who has tremendous experience in everything except finance.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 09 Feb 2014 20:46

This is bad, really bad

http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/ ... vejD17PqnN

Look at the probables, grapewine is that 9/18 are sure losers, 6 in tight battle. Of the other 10 seats in KA, BJP cannot breach 8 anyway. So of the 20, if they go with this list only 11 are in contest of which 6 are tightly locked.

Nagesh ji, any thoughts

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 09 Feb 2014 21:14

My political journey has not yet ended, only purpose in life to serve motherland: LK Advani

He is never going to retire.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 09 Feb 2014 21:21

muraliravi wrote:This is bad, really bad

http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/ ... vejD17PqnN

Look at the probables, grapewine is that 9/18 are sure losers, 6 in tight battle. Of the other 10 seats in KA, BJP cannot breach 8 anyway. So of the 20, if they go with this list only 11 are in contest of which 6 are tightly locked.

Nagesh ji, any thoughts

You are quoting Praveen Patil for your grapevine, correct? Let us just say - he has his own set of biases, particularly with regard to Karnataka. In that list of probables, I can see about 6 almost certain winners, and another 8 toss ups. But all in all, I only expect around 10-12 for the BJP in Karnataka.

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 09 Feb 2014 21:44

gandharva wrote:Congress has promised PM post to Mufflerman if he can win 25+.

sir, crazywala can be promised the moon for all i care. His constant whining has made loads of people change their mind. His support base now consists of only hard core ex-INC walas who can no longer support INC because it is going to be wiped out (only the ultra-hard core INC chamchas support team italy).

Secondly, INC has started to realise the frankenstein they helped create is now destroying what little chance they have and is in panic mode. Which is why you see INC people running around like headless chicken trying to blame crazywala for the mess. Infact the modi phobia is somewhat reduced. Lets not forget, while the high command might be willing to sacrifice the INC, those contesting aren't willing to do so as they have much more to lose than to gain.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 09 Feb 2014 22:06

muraliravi wrote:This is bad, really bad

http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/ ... vejD17PqnN

Look at the probables, grapewine is that 9/18 are sure losers, 6 in tight battle. Of the other 10 seats in KA, BJP cannot breach 8 anyway. So of the 20, if they go with this list only 11 are in contest of which 6 are tightly locked.

Nagesh ji, any thoughts

nageshks wrote:You are quoting Praveen Patil for your grapevine, correct? Let us just say - he has his own set of biases, particularly with regard to Karnataka. In that list of probables, I can see about 6 almost certain winners, and another 8 toss ups. But all in all, I only expect around 10-12 for the BJP in Karnataka.

+100.
No grapevine stuff. In the end the decision has to be based on winnablity and not by some theoretical-morality-in-politics.