Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 15 Feb 2014 17:40

Watch these guys. May be these guys have direct access to EVMs

Today's Chanakya ‏@TodaysChanakya 2h
This is the official account of Todays Chanakya which is a part of RNB Research.

Today's Chanakya ‏@TodaysChanakya 2h
By releasing shortly our national figures we mean to say that it will take some days. And once final we will release here as well

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 15 Feb 2014 18:29

^^^ Todays chanakya was the only channel predict up-2012, all the 4 state elections held recently accurately. Even their vote shares were on dot. They just have better pollsters

VinayB · Post by **VinayB** » 15 Feb 2014 18:32

muraliravi wrote:http://www.gossipguru.in/aaps-soaring-graph

Why am I breaking my head over yogi yadav's fake survey, only god knows.

if there is evm magic, yogi may be floating figures to match what will get cooked. i seriously hate these AAPTards.

but c-voter survey which is the most recent, and a clutch of surveys in Jan, all show a different picture. AAP is not expected to get votes outside the NCR and nearby (delhi/punjab/haryana). and unlikely to pick seats outside delhi.

c-voter which is the latest, puts AAP on the downswing even in delhi.

VinayB · Post by **VinayB** » 15 Feb 2014 18:51

SwamyG wrote:
prasannasimha wrote: Sorry . I am from Bangalore and a lot of people here have become cynical about the Kejriwal drama here.
That further proves that humans perceive the same event differently, based on their own experiences and biases. What becomes important is the calculations:
1. How many became disenchanted, and weaned from him?
2. How many new converts emerged?
3. How many were able restrengthen their beliefs - for and against?
4. How many were neutral.

If we knew answers to such questions, we would probably be running campaigns for our favorite leaders and making some money on the side

If there is a khujli wave in bangalore I am unable to see it. c-voter survey put 1 seat in ktaka for AAPtards but the vote % did not match (it was some 4% if i recall). the natives certainly are not enamored. there are some folks from delhi/bengal who were very enamored of the chief AAPTard during delhi elections. i dont see that enthusiasm now even in them.

the hold of yeddyurappa on some sections of k'taka is vastly underestimated. both me and a driver i hired recently both had not voted in the last assembly elections in k'taka because of what was done to him. and neither of us are Lingayat.

now my curiosity is, based on what i see, why is it that some bengalis and then Punjab/delhi folks are fond of khujli. some tards in the office (computer industry) were even seriously discussing redrawing borders after what bhushan-ji crapped. ofcourse now i dont see that enthusiasm.

what Modi is doing is right. he shows the focus. If bjp had not picked him, given how well scripted / planned this drama is, bjp might have been fighting for the 3rd place in this polls. Rural OBC support is with him, and that group is least amenable to media hype. khujli could actually do a strip tease act with the kavi dude and Yogi bear, and this group might still not know.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 15 Feb 2014 18:55

Sanku wrote:
muraliravi wrote:AAP is slotted to get 32-36 seats across the country. The survey has also pointed out that because of AAP, the Congress might lose 70-75 seats, and the BJP about 40-50 seats.
This is madarassa math by that useless website. If AAP wins only 35 seats, and congress loses 75, the 40 will go whom ? BJP is also loosing 40 seats ?

BSP, SP, third fourth fifth fronts ?

Jai. Ho.

I agree sir, But the website is just publishing what AAP's internal survey says, I would say the madarassa math originates in yogi yadav's office.

VinayB · Post by **VinayB** » 15 Feb 2014 19:04

Virendra wrote:Karuna and his party should not be entertained much now. At most NDA should take outside support.
His disdain for Hinduism is well known. Corruption in family is well known.
DMK is not a good choice to associate with.
Would rather prefer the likes of Naveen Patnaik but he's very cold towards NDA right now.

ADMK would be a far worse choice, and the woman seriously wants to become PM.

if Modi cant take NDA above 240, then he needs to focus on limiting ADMK at below 20 in TN. A DMK+BJP+Vaiko's MDMK+ Ramadoss's PMK alliance in TN will help achieve both. this was infact the NDA between 1998 and 2003. Until some in bjp stupidly allowed that woman to jail Vaiko on POTA for months.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 15 Feb 2014 19:28

Joining with DMK is the worst thing. Vaiko for all his stupidities on LTTE is quite a honest person in TN. He is also well knowledged on Indic texts etc - which many may find surprising. Ramdas PMK is another opportunist caste gang but with BJP being very weak there are limited options after Capton meeting mmS. BJP failed to capitalize the position of the national ruling alliance for 6 years in many states. Now it need allies in south and east for the time being.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 15 Feb 2014 19:46

I think better would be for BJP to bring in MK Azhagiri into the coalition and use him to weaken DMK cadre strength - a sort of Vibhishana.

BJP +
MDMK +
PMK +
KMK +
IJK +
DMK-Azhagiri

would be a strong coalition.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 15 Feb 2014 20:10

Azagiri is another worst kind of scum you find in DMK type parties. Pakka Gunda. I wonder any educated people in TN will vote for BJP if it allies with him.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 15 Feb 2014 20:15

Narayana Rao wrote:Azagiri is another worst kind of scum you find in DMK type parties. Pakka Gunda. I wonder any educated people in TN will vote for BJP if it allies with him.

It suffices if Azhagiri says he supports Modi for PM, and BJP coalition does not put up a candidate in Madurai. He could lend cadre etc. to BJP+ in TN.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 15 Feb 2014 20:20

He or anyone in DMK or AIDMK or PMK or capton will not doing anything unless there is money and power in it. Period. AP, TN, MH, Haryana, UP, Delhi are the most currupt states in the union. Bihar is now much better now. TN politicos also has BIG TIME EGOS.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 15 Feb 2014 20:23

Well if Azhagiri allows DMK to get seats in this Lok Sabha elections, and this DMK later supports Modi govt. then basically he would be allowing Stalin's complete takeover of DMK.

Is Azhagiri willing to do that?

DMK needs to get a full-scale thapad in LS elections from TN voters, so that Azhagiri's star can rise again in the party.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 15 Feb 2014 21:23

Narayana Rao wrote:Azagiri is another worst kind of scum you find in DMK type parties. Pakka Gunda. I wonder any educated people in TN will vote for BJP if it allies with him.

Seriously, almost all TN politicians are scum - at least the ones who really made it.

Saar, BJP already aligned with Vaiko no? Vaiko is a gunda as well. LTTE supporter to boot. Talks were on with the PMK. Ramdoss is a highly casteist figure, and his followers do not hesitate to cut down trees without any trouble protests. Crazywal does not know anarchy like these *MK followers know. Crazywal needs lessons from these gundas.

And BJP has been in bed with all *MK. BJP has no moral high grounds as far as TN goes. So TN BJP supporters vote for BJP because of their ideology or belief in BJP not because of its alliances.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 15 Feb 2014 22:17

Vaiko is many things but not a "gunda".

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 15 Feb 2014 22:19

Gus wrote:Vaiko is many things but not a "gunda".

Didn't Amma have him thrown in prison on TADA? Was it only because of his pro-LTTE speeches?

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 15 Feb 2014 22:25

Kejriwal does not seem to have made friends with the Kannada Prabha (one of the largest Kannada dailies in Karnataka).

The headline reads

ದಿಲ್ಲಿ ತುಘಲಕ್ ದರ್ಬಾರ್ ಅಂತ್ಯ

Translation - End of Delhi's Tughlaq Darbar (not very flattering towards Kejriwal).

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 15 Feb 2014 22:44

As per Vikatan, since Vijayakanth's wife Premalatha supports BJP; it is likely that DMDK will align with BJP. {http://www.vikatan.com/election/index.php?aid=5201}. All the dilly-dallying is to get as much advantage, from BJP, as possible. However, DMK is actively pursuing DMDK as well. Premalatha is not convinced of DMK's dramas. The enmity between some of these politicians are at personal and ego levels. Nothing ideological, so if egos are soothed and bolstered alliances will switch any moment. Vikatan almost calls Vijayakanth as a hen-pecked husband.

Only Karunanidhi, and some of his old supporters, might have some ideologies based on their DK past. However even they have struck alliance with BJP.

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 15 Feb 2014 22:50

Is it a too late to play this game ?

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 15 Feb 2014 23:25

Could it be BJP's thinking that after Kejriwal's Tuqlag rule in Delhi, any votes it cuts into will only be congress's and not BJP's or atleast the net effect will be that it will eat a much larger chunk of congress and other's votes than BJP's. We must not forget that there is not just BJP and Congress, there are other parties too and in a three way or four way contest, AAP's presence may help BJP.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 16 Feb 2014 00:41

nageshks wrote:Didn't Amma have him thrown in prison on TADA? Was it only because of his pro-LTTE speeches?

POTA. he spend 18 months in jail as sitting MP. the case was on his pro LTTE speech.

as said, he is stupid when it comes to LTTE (says thambi prabhakaran will come back

)..but he's not a gunda. when he was in jail, there was no violence from his followers.

JJ was convicted for a year in the kodaikanal hotel case and they set a bus alight burning three girl students inside. similar things would happen/happened for dmk, pmk etc...these are all parties that have street power and have no qualms in showing that.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Feb 2014 01:28

http://www.sunday-guardian.com/news/kej ... -new-delhi

So when Modi will address his rally in Lucknow on March 2, Khujli plans a rally on March 2 in kanpur

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Feb 2014 02:00

http://www.sunday-guardian.com/news/sp- ... fall-apart

A former SP leader, explained, "Today there are only 5% Yadavs and the remaining 95% are Ahirs (Ahir is the community and Yadav is the caste surname). The 5% Yadavs who are enjoying the perks of power are those who either belong to Mulayam Singh's family or those Yadav officers who are close to the family. The remaining 95% have not benefited under this regime — in fact, they are made to face flak for being an Ahir," he said.

Disgruntled Yadavs are now gradually shifting to the emerging BJP, which is making a concerted effort to woo OBCs and is busy projecting Narendra Modi's OBC background.

The BSP's Dalit-Brahmin social engineering formula is also going awry. It was this combination that had catapulted the BSP to a majority in the UP Assembly in 2007. However, the BSP's insistence on implementing reservation in promotion has made Brahmins move away. And with BJP offering a better option, the Brahmin and other upper castes are shifting sides. Mayawati is now concentrating on Muslims and most backward castes (MBCs) to retrieve some of the lost ground.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Feb 2014 07:04

Maneka Gandhi --- Pilibhit
Varun Gandhi --- Sultanpur (Sanjay Singh's wife is his opponent)
Hukum Singh ---- Kairana
Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh --- Gonda (a dog called beni prasad verma (current MP) wants to shift from gonda, because he knows that Brij Singh will win quite handsomely here)
Lakshmikant Bajpai (UP BJP Chief) --- Meerut
Satyapal Singh (Mumbai Cop) --- Baghpat
Pankaj Singh (Rajnath's Son) --- Chandausi
Rajnath Singh ---- Lucknow
Vinay Katiyar ---- Lakhmipur Kheri
Siddharth Nath Singh (LBS' grandson) ---- Phulpur
Murli Manohar Joshi --- Varanasi
Kalraj Mishra ---- Kanpur
Gorakhpur - Yogi Adityanath
Bansgaon - Kamlesh Paswan
Azamgarh - Ramakant Yadav
Etah - Kalyan Singh
Muzzafarnagar - Sanjiv Baliyan
Agra - Ramshankar Katheriya
Aonla - Dharmendra Kashyap
Hathras - Ashok Pradhan

The ones colored red are the ones i think are risky

Disclaimer: I also have news that Sanjay Mahana will be given the ticket from kanpur in which case, they will romp home

niran · Post by **niran** » 16 Feb 2014 07:46

^^ Varanasi have 2 seats North and South Murli Baba is sitting MP from South plans is afoot to transfer him to Phoolpur
LBS Grandson will contest from Varanasi North and 3 locals are in consideration for Varanasi South. Rajnath Singh is a Local
most proily his elder son will contest from south. The Chandasi Seat is booked for a very capable and ruthless and rich Coal merchant.(no pun intended)
these are mine data.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 16 Feb 2014 07:50

Who's contesting from allahabad then, I wonder? And in Faizabad?

Also, makes sense to put up a good fight in weak seats also - such as rampur, etawah etc.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Feb 2014 08:03

niran wrote:^^ Varanasi have 2 seats North and South Murli Baba is sitting MP from South plans is afoot to transfer him to Phoolpur
LBS Grandson will contest from Varanasi North and 3 locals are in consideration for Varanasi South. Rajnath Singh is a Local
most proily his elder son will contest from south. The Chandasi Seat is booked for a very capable and ruthless and rich Coal merchant.(no pun intended)
these are mine data.

good deal. so this is just initial trial balloon and they will change some seats i guess. if bjp can get the seat selection and candidate right in UP, they can surely hit gold

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 16 Feb 2014 08:13

What is BJP aiming realistically in UP if every thing goes right?

35? 45? 50?

niran · Post by **niran** » 16 Feb 2014 09:10

vivek.rao wrote:What is BJP aiming realistically in UP if every thing goes right?

35? 45? 50?

all of the 80 is the target, make no mistake saar, Amit Shah till now has delivered what NaMo needed
he is a very capable the ultimate manager the kind people would part with their limbs to have him in their organization.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 16 Feb 2014 09:18

Nirenji, We are not hearing anything about Bihar. What is happening there? 25-30 seats are needed from there and I hear mafia Lalu and Paswan ganging up is already underway. Can Modi of bihar deliver the seats needed or NM has to look more closely at Bihar.

niran · Post by **niran** » 16 Feb 2014 09:54

Lalo and paswan had been ganging up with congress since 90ies
what have they got to show for it? this time the gangs says Bjp nay lalo ko under karaya
the crowd (the voters)asks back par sarkar tow Sonia Gandhi ki jai bjp ka kaisa sadyantra?
get the point saar? paswan could not even win his own backyard seat, he had to contest from two seats
and won by paltry few thousand votes, nitish the silent partner in reality does not have the worker ants
in numbers to win more than 5 seats thanks to Bihar bjp unit the worker ants for Bihar are more than sufficient
and they are charged up really charged up 40 plus seats by latest data.

Yogi_G · Post by **Yogi_G** » 16 Feb 2014 10:05

Vaiko and I share the same kula-deivam in south Tamil Nadu. Heard from folks there that he has stopped coming there and also not going to other Hindu temples. His daughter converted to xianity and he is very close to it, it seems.

xians are doing the same thing in TN that they successfully did in AP. Targeting political honchos which automatically trickles down to their political followers. Recently in the list is T Rajendran whose family was already xian.

In AP, through physical intimidation and threats several film stars and politicians of the Reddy caste were targeted and converted. In TN one of the main targets is the Nadar community.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 16 Feb 2014 12:36

muraliravi wrote:
Virendra wrote:Karuna and his party should not be entertained much now. At most NDA should take outside support.
His disdain for Hinduism is well known. Corruption in family is well known.
DMK is not a good choice to associate with.
Would rather prefer the likes of Naveen Patnaik but he's very cold towards NDA right now.
Virendra,

Some surveys are giving 21 for BJP in rajasthan and some are predicting all 25 for BJP, whats your take, can congress get any seats? And also is there any AAP effect in cities of rajasthan and will it affect BJP?

I can't guarantee all 25 for BJP as one or two factors go here and there all the time. But yes 22-23 is fully guaranteed.
If you see the reactions in Delhi over the past few days, AAP's only base that has not crumbled is the Autorickshaw walas and Slums.
Now, Rajasthan doesn't have a considerable populace of that kind. The tiny bit that is there .. is in hands of BSP etc.
Urban voter wants to give a chance to NaMo, Semi-Urban is a deadly NaMo bhakt.
Rural voter swings heavier than Shaun Pollock, but we're hoping for plenty of NaMo influence as Rajsathan is latter's neighbor too.

Also, 2-3 months is a short time for Raje to mess things up so much. I see that she is acting very mature & careful in 2nd term so far. (I'd love a bit more spark though

)

Regards,
Virendra

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 16 Feb 2014 13:06

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/dmk-invites-protamil-parties-for-alliance/article5689506.ece

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam hoped that all parties which have concern for the unity and welfare of Tamils would join its alliance and the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam was no exception, said party president M.Karunanidhi here on Friday.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/stalin-show-all-the-way-at-dmk-meet/article5692662.ece?ref=relatedNews

The DMK’s 10th State conference, which began in Tiruchi on Saturday with the ceremonial unfurling of the party flag by DMK president M. Karunanidhi, made it amply clear that party treasurer M.K. Stalin was emerging as the undisputed successor.
Gigantic cut-outs and vinyl posters of Mr. Stalin along with his father were ubiquitous in the city. Passes distributed to mediapersons too carried the images of the father and son.

However, there was no trace of support for M.K. Alagiri, who was recently suspended from the party. Even supporters of DMK MP Kanimozhi have put up a few cut-outs for her.

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-tamilnadu/dmk-raises-rs-106-crore-as-election-fund/article5694881.ece

The DMK has collected a whopping Rs. 106.79 crore as election fund. Party general secretary K. Anbazhagan said the DMK alliance should win all the 40 seats in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry in the Lok Sabha polls, not to secure political power, but to empower the Dravidian society.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/DMKs-convention-in-Trichy-Men-pay-Rs-50-women-Rs-20-forentry/articleshow/30454974.cms?

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 16 Feb 2014 17:26

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 8h
Coalitions & Third Fronts are like 10 headed Ravanas of our times!!! http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.co ... avana-raaj … 2014 is heading towards a single party govt!

Sidd · Post by **Sidd** » 16 Feb 2014 17:41

muraliravi wrote:Maneka Gandhi --- Pilibhit
Varun Gandhi --- Sultanpur (Sanjay Singh's wife is his opponent)
Hukum Singh ---- Kairana
Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh --- Gonda (a dog called beni prasad verma (current MP) wants to shift from gonda, because he knows that Brij Singh will win quite handsomely here)
Lakshmikant Bajpai (UP BJP Chief) --- Meerut
Satyapal Singh (Mumbai Cop) --- Baghpat
Pankaj Singh (Rajnath's Son) --- Chandausi
Rajnath Singh ---- Lucknow
Vinay Katiyar ---- Lakhmipur Kheri
Siddharth Nath Singh (LBS' grandson) ---- Phulpur
Murli Manohar Joshi --- Varanasi
Kalraj Mishra ---- Kanpur
Gorakhpur - Yogi Adityanath
Bansgaon - Kamlesh Paswan
Azamgarh - Ramakant Yadav
Etah - Kalyan Singh
Muzzafarnagar - Sanjiv Baliyan
Agra - Ramshankar Katheriya
Aonla - Dharmendra Kashyap
Hathras - Ashok Pradhan

The ones colored red are the ones i think are risky

Disclaimer: I also have news that Sanjay Mahana will be given the ticket from kanpur in which case, they will romp home

Lucknow, Kanpur and Varanasi will be very easy wins for BJP this time irrespective of the candidate and you will see the dead-woods clamoring to stand from there.

I visited Allahabad in July and I saw the city plastered with Siddhartha Nath Singh posters. It is not an easy seat but winnable. Phulpur
will be very difficult to seat to win! BJP has not won it ever.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 16 Feb 2014 19:16

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 16 Feb 2014 19:26

There should also release the numbers for the amount of funds used for the Govt ads. Infact, the next Govt should release the amount of funds spent on the Govt. ads.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 16 Feb 2014 19:29

What did Rahul do? Is it his speech or just farted?

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 16 Feb 2014 19:31

"Shooting" from the hip

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Feb 2014 20:14

Here is some analysis I did on surveys (specifically UP)

You can see how the 3 major TV surveys performed w.r.t UP in 2012. The reason I posted UP is because as we all know it is a psephologists nightmare. It is quite easy to predict RJ or MP or GJ or for that matter any 2 way fight. I am doing this to see which polling agency does a good job at capturing trends in a 3 or 4 way fight. My next post will be on the recent Delhi elections. But for now look at UP (please focus on vote share, seat projection is a disaster in most cases barring CSDS).

As you can see very well that C-voter collapsed, they just could not even catch the trend of SP doing better than the BSP. That is quite horrible for an election that delivered an astounding result. CSDS overshot the SP figure, but did a good job at capturing the trends, predicting BJP and cong vote share very well. They also got the seats almost on dot. Nielsen over predicted BJP/cong, and underestimated BSP/SP, but they got the gap between SP and BSP right.

But what is most interesting is that the average of the 3 surveys yields pretty good correlation with the actual results. But I would still applaud csds for getting the trends correct. They predicted national parties getting decimated, SP being an outright winner, so they broadly they tend to get the pulse, but overestimate a wave.

So applying the same lesson to this UP LS 2014, I see the same issue. CSDS is broadly getting the trend right as are other surveys that BJP is romping home. But i think they are overestimating the magnitude of the wave, my guess is the vote share of BJP will be close to 33% and the rest also on lines similar what the poll of polls shows. As far as seats go, I guess they will very close to what nielsen is showing in terms of seats. The poll of polls vote share is quite close to their vote share, so we can use their seat tally.

One more data point that supports this inference is the latest ibtl survey where BJP got 34.5% and 41 seats. So at 33% BJP gets 35 seats and at a 1.5% increment in the IBTL survey it gets 6 seats more which is usually the norm for BJP in UP.

So i would say as of jan/feb BJP -33%, BSP - 22%, SP-19%, Cong -12% is a reasonable number in UP. If BJP can grab an additional 3-5% vote in the coming months, they can hit 50 seats.