Eastern Europe/Ukraine

[sampat]

Interesting insight from Reddit.
Posting in full, highlights are from original postor.

The situation from Russia's perspective:

Primarily Russia is securing the future of the Black Sea Fleet, in case the Ukrainian hardline Nationalists decide to break the treaty and take the Russian naval bases in Crimea. Base reinforcement was a preventative measure to nip any such action in the bud. Had Putin not done so and if the new Ukrainian government was foolish enough to take it by force (as some were suggesting) then there would have been an unavoidable war. Russia NEEDS warm water ports in Europe, this has been the the historical catalyst for over a dozen wars for Russia, under no circumstances will they give up their naval bases in Crimea. A show of strength is intended to show their commitment to keeping those bases. That is the bottom line of this situation, the ports must stay at all costs.

Naturally Russia is not happy with the turnout of the Ukrainian revolution. The way it sees it, a violent nationalist opposition overthrew the pro-Russian majority elected President of their close neighbor and ally. As a result a significant (ethnically and politically Russian) segment of the Ukrainian population now finds itself without due representation in government. In response Crimea, a historically and ethnically Russian region, declared autonomy from the "usurper" government in Kiev. A new government that through both action and rhetoric has shown that it is both volatile and not opposed to using violence to silence its pro-Russian opposition, something that they themselves condemned when it suited them. The Crimean administration has requested Russian troops stationed in Ukraine for protection from an otherwise likely attempts by the Kiev government to violently put down the Crimean revolt until the situation stabilizes.

Now this is where the situation could have got messy. A pro-Russian"wannabe" breakaway state (at least on paper), with a majority ethnically Russian populace, being threatened with violence right on Russia's own doorstep. The situation is starting to mirror the lead up to the 2008 Russian-Georgian war. However Russia has learned from that conflict and has altered their preventative doctrine accordingly. Instead of waiting for Ukraine to attack Crimea and then inevitably counterattacking, Russia laid out its cards on the table by deploying their forces within and outside of Ukrain. Through doing so they hope to cower the Ukrainian government into inaction and avoiding war in the process.

Neither side wants a war. The only way it could happen is through rash and foolish action undertaken by volatile elements in an attempt to get an easy win where there is none. In 2008 South Ossetia looked like an "easy win" for Georgia and many paid dearly for that illusion. If prior to troop mobilization Sevastopol and other Crimean bases looked "easy" then now they most certainly do not. Using Russian troops for protection of key points of infrastructure such as the Simferopol airport only strengthens their ability to protect the interests of Russia and the Crimean people.

Russia is being very cautious in how it chooses to proceed. So far Russia is following the existing treaties to the letter. No breach of any kind has so far taken place, despite all the media sensationalism. Note that pre-Duma approval, the troops defending the Simferopol airport intentionally don't have magazines in their rifles and no armour has been deployed, their presence around the airport in the current manner does not legally constitute an act of aggression or occupation. They are legally there as an informal peace keeping force. Russian troops are present around the airport, but officially they are not the ones controlling it, the Crimeans are running the show, at least on paper. The Russian troops are currently there in a role of an enabling shield, not a sword. Russian bases have been reinforced within the levels permitted by the 1994 treaty and their troop movements both within and outside of Ukraine are legally in the clear. Russia is taking every step to ensure that they are toeing the line of international laws and treaties.

Although Putin has obtained Duma's approval to deploy troops in Ukraine, so far it is held as a chip to strengthen the Russian position. A chip that has not been cashed in. Doing so without Ukrainian provocation would undermine the Russian position. Russia already has over 20,000 troops legally present within Ukraine. Double the force that was used to defeat Georgia.

In essence this tells us several things about Russian intention:

1) Such caution is not indicative of a country that set out to illegally annex Ukraine. Even without warnings from Western Powers such action would have made no sense for Russia.

2) Russia aims to remove Ukraine's ability to silence the Crimean opposition by force, by legally deploying troops around key Crimean access points and reinforcing their bases Russia is placing their own forces as a buffer between the pro-Russian Crimean opposition and potential use of Ukrainian forces to regain control of Crimea. A Russian show of strength on Ukrainian border is meant to signal to Ukraine that trying to force Russia out of Crimea will have serious consequences. The potential for Russia to instantly pour pre-approved troops into Ukraine further leverages Kiev away from seeking a military resolution.

3) Without the option to use force Ukraine will have to rely solely diplomatic means in order to negotiate with the Crimean opposition. This is greatly advantageous to Russia, the heavy pro-Russian sentiment of the population forms a Win-Win-Win scenario with the following outcomes:

WIN 1: Russia get to use its political leverage over Crimea to ensure that the Black Sea Fleet stays in Crimea in return for facilitating the reintegration of Crimea into Ukraine.

+

WIN 2: In doing so Crimean and other pro-Russian views will have to be represented within the new government, thus Russia regains a portion of its political influence in Ukraine.

or

Win 3: Crimea agrees to split away from Ukraine following the March referendum, joining Russia as a fully or semi-autonomous region.

Russia has its foot in the door, thus Ukraine is forced to respect the rights of the Crimean people. The only way Russia loses out is if Ukraine attacks, in that event everyone loses. Russia has been trying to prevent that from happening by flexing muscles to show that any such attack would be suicide.

tl,dr: Russia wants to keep the naval bases in Ukraine as the bottom line, protect the ethnic Russian population and to force the Ukrainian government to seek diplomatic solution in regard to Crimea. Through doing so they either regain some of their political influence within the new Ukrainian government or gain control of Crimea outright. All without firing a single shot.

[Philip]

A good insight.If Putin was a Stalin,we would've seen another Hungarian or Czech "Police action" afoot.
He is however turning the wheel of the rack relentlessly upon the Kiev junta.It is for them to make the first mistake and their ranting and rhetoric (Like Shakashvilli in Georgia) is simply playing into Russian hands.The end result is staring at everyone in the face,the partition of the Ukraine into a pro-Russian region in the east and the Crimea ,independent or merging with Russia and the leftovers in the west,looking towards the West to bail them out of their bankruptcy.The honeymoon period of the Kiev junta will be a short one,once the economic austerity measures that the junta will be forced to impose bites the Ukranians hard.At that time they will rue the manipulations of the "old men" and those of the West,responsible for the crisis.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... p-him.html


Ukraine analysis: Obama has few options, but bluster will not help him

Washington and Europe must seek to broker a deal in Ukraine that preserves the right of Ukrainian's to self-determination but recognises Russia's legitimate strategic interests in the region

Vladimir Putin has decided to brush off Mr Obama’s threat that there would be “costs” to any Russian military intervention in Ukraine

By Peter Foster, Washington
9:31PM GMT 01 Mar 2014

Once again Barack Obama has drawn an international line in the sand – as he did with Bashar al-Assad over Syria’s use of chemical weapons – and once again it has apparently been ignored.

This time it is the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, who has decided to brush off Mr Obama’s threat that there would be “costs” to any Russian military intervention in Ukraine.

If there was any doubt where Mr Putin sees Russia’s priorities, it was cleared up with yesterday’s vote in the Russian parliament to authorise troop deployments.

By requesting this authorisation, and by deploying some 2,000 unidentified troops to the Crimean region already, the Russian president clearly calculates that the risk of losing influence in Ukraine and the Crimea far outweighs the pain of any possible EU-US diplomatic and economic reprisals.

And, as the almost total radio-silence from the White House, State Department and European capitals indicated yesterday, the US and the European community know that they have very limited options when it comes to sanctioning Russia.

Unlike in Syria, where Mr Obama could conceivably have acted unilaterally by ordering punitive military strikes against Bashar Al-Assad, in the case of the Ukrainian crisis he can only offer support for the “international community” – which he did on Friday.

The options on the table include suspending Russia from the G8, boycotting the June G8 meeting in Sochi, or imposing sanctions could target Russian oligarchs and their companies – but Mr Putin already knows all this.

In bald numerical terms the numbers simply do not amount to leverage – Russia accounts for less than two per cent of US trade, and Europe still relies heavily on Russian gas.

Mr Putin will also recall that similar threats were issued in 2008 by the George W Bush administration after Russian got into a shooting war with Georgia, but soon after Mr Obama’s inauguration in 2009, America was once again reaching for a “reset”.

But given his record as a ultra-realist in foreign policy – Mr Obama will have been as aware of his limited options as anyone – critics are once again wondering why Mr Obama risked repeating his mistake over Syria, by making apparently empty threats.

Several leading Republican senators like the former presidential candidate John McCain are calling on the president to take stern action against Moscow, accusing the president of weakness with midterm elections only six months away.

Marco Rubio, himself a presidential hopeful for 2016, led the charge, demanded that Mr Obama dispatch his secretaries of state and defend Kiev to show support for its nascent government, and threaten Moscow with boycotts and sanctions.

“This is a critical moment in world history. The credibility of the alliances and security assurances that have preserved the international order is at stake. If Putin's illegal actions are allowed to stand unpunished, it will usher in a dark and dangerous era in world affairs,” Mr Rubio said.

Such hyperbole serves well in US domestic politics, but it will do nothing to solve a crisis that has exposed the limits of Western options when any threats of force or security guarantees, speak emptily to a military conflict in which that everyone knows that Nato would never engage.

Nor will it broker a deal a diplomatic solution over Ukraine that could also preserve Russia’s role in the ongoing Iranian nuclear talks and the attempt to pick up the pace of chemical weapons destruction programme in Syria.

Instead, wiser more pragmatic heads are hoping the Ukrainian parliamentary vote was ultimately a diplomatic gambit by which Russia intended to send a message that its strategic interests in Ukraine must be taken very seriously indeed by the West.

For all Friday’s bluster, Western diplomats say, they are working furiously to make sure that the new Ukrainian government does nothing that might give Mr Putin an excuse to enter eastern Ukraine in order to “protect Russian civilians”.

And at the same, as much as threatening to sanction Russia, the EU and the US must make clear that they will back the new Ukrainian government with both money and political support to demonstrate that Ukraine must have a right to self-determination, but will also respect Russian interests.

That way it might be possible to broker an uneasy truce will give all sides time to step back from the brink.

PS:The above article about Russia securing its Black Sea Fleet underscores a vital fact,that it is Russia's only so-called warm water port (that too at a stretch) which allows the Russian fleet access to the Medditt. Sea.The 19th century was full of plots being played out in the "Great Game",the assumption of the western imperialists that Czarist Russia was trying to penetrate into the Indian Ocean through Afghanistan and India.The Royal navy,the most powerful in the world,"Rule Britannia" et al,fought against Czarist Russia in the Crimea and against the Germans at Jutland to prevent the two great European powers from "breaking out" of their geographical constraints and confines.A new Great Game is now being played out in the Crimea history repeating itself.

[Philip]

Enlarging upon the theme in the above post ,a little dekko into history will give us a wider perspective of the current crisis and the stakes involved.The Crimean War in the 19th century is the major factor.It underscores the role and importance of naval power to influence events upon land,even today and why the IN has to be massively supported with modernisation and expansion to meet the Chinese challenge in the future.

Quotes from Wiki:

Russia, as a member of the Holy Alliance, had operated as the "police of Europe", maintaining the balance of power that had been established in the Treaty of Vienna in 1815. Russia had assisted Austria's efforts in suppressing the Hungarian Revolution of 1848, and expected gratitude. It wanted a free hand in settling its problems with the Ottoman Empire – the "sick man of Europe". Britain could not tolerate Russian dominance of Ottoman affairs as that would challenge the British role in the eastern Mediterranean.[14]

For over 200 years, Russia had been expanding in a southerly direction toward the warm water ports of the Black Sea. Warm water ports that did not freeze over in the winter were essential for the development of Russian year-round trade and development of a strong navy.[9]:11 This brought the emerging Russian state into conflict with the Ukrainian Cossacks and then with the Ukrainian Tatars.[15] When Russia conquered these groups and gained possession of the Ukraine, the Ottoman Empire lost its buffer zone against Russian expansion, and Russia and the Ottoman Empire fell into direct conflict. The conflict with the Ottoman Empire also presented a religious issue of importance, as Russia saw itself as the protector of Orthodox Christians, many of whom lived under Ottoman control.[9](ch 1)

Russia and the Ottoman Empire went to war in October 1853 over Russia's rights to protect Orthodox Christians. Russia gained the upper hand after destroying the Ottoman fleet at the Black Sea port of Sinope; to stop Russia's conquest, France and Britain entered in March 1854. Most of the fighting took place for control of the Black Sea, with land battles on the Crimean peninsula in southern Russia. The Russians held their great fortress at Sevastopol for over a year. After it fell, peace was arranged at Paris in March 1856. The religion issue had already been resolved. The main results were that the Black Sea was neutralised—Russia would not have any warships there—and the two vassals Wallachia and Moldavia became largely independent under nominal Ottoman rule.

The Crimean War marked the ascendancy of France to the position of pre-eminent power on the Continent[9]:411 and the beginning of a decline for Tsarist Russia. Thus, the Crimean War represented one of the main causes of the demise of the Concert of Europe, the balance of power that had dominated Europe since the Congress of Vienna in 1815, and which had included France, Russia, Austria and Britain.

The joker in the pack today is Turkey and how it will view the inevitable suppression of the Tartars in the Crimea.In the last Crimean War,the Ottoman Empire was weak but not down and out.That empire and the British are now footnotes in history.Turkey can stir the pot as a mischiefmaker ,both in the Crimea and in in Syria to the detriment of Russia.There is likely to be a new thrust in assisting the Syrian rebels by the West/oily despots of the ME,to open a "second front" for Russia.If Russia prevails in the Ukriane/Crimea,it will have a profiund impact upon the manner in which Russia is viewed in the entire ME and Arab world,as the decline in US prestige and capability is already having its effect with Egypt looking to Russia for new arms deals.

[Roperia]

Russian Military Seizes Cremia | NYT

[rgosain]

Phil thanks for that piece. Vitaly Churkin, who is Moscow's man at the UN and is best remembered, by those old enough, for being the USSR representative to Washington during the 1986 Chernobyl meltdown in Ukraine, has said that Russia position with regard to the people of the Crimea is consistent with the UN R2P (right to protect), UN right to self defense, and that terms of the 1994 agreement, allows for base and force protection which has been the stance of russia since the past week. In the past decade r2p has been a clarion call to arms for those seeking to destabilise and invade others.
It is interesting that after Trafalgar (1805), the next major engagement by the Royal navy was during the crimea war, and that was followed by Jutland (1916). The lesson for the IN, is just because you haven't been involved in a major engagement for 40 years doesn't mean that you shouldn't be continuously improving capability and evolving doctrine, however this is all acdemic if you have had an NGO ruling for a decade.

[rohitvats]

What is quite obvious from the developments in Ukraine is that west, especially America, seems to have devised newer methods of undermining countries; they are praying on existing fault-lines and propping up anyone who they feel can further their agenda. Once the deed is done, these agent provocateurs will be sidelined with more 'understanding' political leadership. The naive and gullible population is exploited on the strength of their grievances and by using the cry of 'freedom' and 'democracy' and carrot of economic 'benefits' + friendly loans from international donor agencies.

We, as a nation, need to watch out for many such fault-lines exist in our case and there is no dearth of willing accomplices and village idiots masquerading as intellectuals...a nation needs strong internal security apparatus, armed forces, economy and political leadership to quell such challenges to nation's integrity and sovereignty.

[Austin]

Some times its amusing to hear US President talk of respecting Intl Law when they have a long track record of not doing so , remember Iraq , Libya

When it comes to US they only believe in Do As I Say , Dont do as I Do.

Check this cold video of madeleine albright justified couple of years ago that the murder of 500000+ ( half million ) children on iraq war was justified

http://youtu.be/x4PgpbQfxgo

[Austin]

What is quite obvious from the developments in Ukraine is that west, especially America, seems to have devised newer methods of undermining countries; they are praying on existing fault-lines and propping up anyone who they feel can further their agenda. Once the deed is done, these agent provocateurs will be sidelined with more 'understanding' political leadership. The naive and gullible population is exploited on the strength of their grievances and by using the cry of 'freedom' and 'democracy' and carrot of economic 'benefits' + friendly loans from international donor agencies.

We, as a nation, need to watch out for many such fault-lines exist in our case and there is no dearth of willing accomplices and village idiots masquerading as intellectuals...a nation needs strong internal security apparatus, armed forces, economy and political leadership to quell such challenges to nation's integrity and sovereignty.

Rohit , Indeed but the result has so far been disastrous Libya , Syria , Iraq ( more recently )

Exploiting fault line is good that can break something but they dont have the Plan B on how to make the nation

The only place where they failed was in Iran some year back

[Austin]

Now the Euro Cake

Turchinov regime resumes preparations for signing association treaty with EU

Ukraine's self-proclaimed government has resumed preparations for the signing of an association agreement with the European Union, Pavel Sheremet, who was appointed Economy Minister, announced on Sunday.

"The government has annulled the resolution which was passed by the previous Cabinet on November 21, 2013 and resumed preparations for the signing of an association agreement with the European Union," Sheremet wrote on his page in a social network.

[UlanBatori]

Vodka Gifts Come in Armored Personnel Carriers

In Moscow, the parliamentary debate on authorizing military action was perfunctory, but laced with remarks that echoed the worst days of the Cold War. Underscoring the extent to which the crisis has become part of Russia’s broader grievances against the West, lawmakers focused on Mr. Obama and the United States as much as on the fate of Russians in Ukraine.

“All this is being done under the guise of democracy, as the West says,” Nikolai I. Ryzhkov, one member of Parliament, said during the debate. “They tore apart Yugoslavia, routed Egypt, Libya, Iraq and so on, and all this under the false guise of peaceful demonstrations.” He added, “So we must be ready in case they will unleash the dogs on us.”

Yuri L. Vorobyov, the body’s deputy chairman, said Mr. Obama’s warning on Friday was a cause for Russia to act. “I believe that these words of the U.S. president are a direct threat,” he said. “He has crossed the red line and insulted the Russian people.”

[sampat]

I am not too knowledgeable about Iranian revolution but Iranian friends in exile said that "revolution was stolen", I think AAptards and all new color revolutionist will have the same feeling after stable governments are overthrown.

[joygoswami]

Some good pics here.

MILITARYPHOTOS.NET

[chanakyaa]

?.. seems to have devised newer methods of undermining countries; they are praying on existing fault-lines and propping up anyone who they feel can further their agenda. Once the deed is done, these agent provocateurs will be sidelined with more 'understanding' political leadership. The naive and gullible population is exploited on the strength of their grievances and by using the cry of 'freedom' and 'democracy' and carrot of economic 'benefits' + friendly loans from international donor agencies.

We, as a nation, need to watch out for many such fault-lines exist in our case and there is no dearth of willing accomplices and village idiots masquerading as intellectuals...a nation needs strong internal security apparatus, armed forces, economy and political leadership to quell such challenges to nation's integrity and sovereignty.

+1. As the chosen ones, see their countries finances bleed over decades from wars taking out low hanging countries, and as focus starts shifting to bigger countries, they must have realized that new methods and techniques are needed. As far as impact of such on India, i.e. creation of Telengana by Rajmata and the other thugs and the ease with which it was done, shows many holes in our internal strength.

Rohit , Indeed but the result has so far been disastrous Libya , Syria , Iraq ( more recently )

Exploiting fault line is good that can break something but they dont have the Plan B on how to make a nation

Are you sure that the end result was not meant to be disastrous? Why anyone would want to see a successful nation?

[A_Gupta]

One more worth reading from the New York Review of Books
http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/20 ... insrc=hpss

From Moscow to London to New York, the Ukrainian revolution has been seen through a haze of propaganda. Russian leaders and the Russian press have insisted that Ukrainian protesters were right-wing extremists and then that their victory was a coup. Ukraine’s president, Viktor Yanukovych, used the same clichés after a visit with the Russian president at Sochi. After his regime was overturned, he maintained he had been ousted by “right-wing thugs,” a claim echoed by the armed men who seized control of airports and government buildings in the southern Ukrainian district of Crimea on Friday

Interestingly, the message from authoritarian regimes in Moscow and Kiev was not so different from some of what was written during the uprising in the English-speaking world, especially in publications of the far left and the far right. From Lyndon LaRouche’s Executive Intelligence Review through Ron Paul’s newsletter through The Nation and The Guardian, the story was essentially the same: little of the factual history of the protests, but instead a play on the idea of a nationalist, fascist, or even Nazi coup d’état.

In fact, it was a classic popular revolution. It began with an unmistakably reactionary regime. A leader sought to gather all power, political as well as financial, in his own hands. This leader came to power in democratic elections, to be sure, but then altered the system from within. For example, the leader had been a common criminal: a rapist and a thief. He found a judge who was willing to misplace documents related to his case. That judge then became the chief justice of the Supreme Court. There were no constitutional objections, subsequently, when the leader asserted ever more power for his presidency.
....

It is hard to have all of the power and all of the money at the same time, because power comes from the state, and the state has to have a budget. If a leader steals so much from the people that the state goes bankrupt, then his power is diminished. Yanukovych actually faced this problem last year. And so, despite everything, he became vulnerable, in a very curious way. He needed someone to finance the immediate debts of the Ukrainian state so that his regime would not fall along with it.

[Philip]

The Ukranian navy's flagship has defected to Russia! Plus,Russia claims 675,000 Ukranian refugees have poured into Russia since the Kiev mafia since Jan.

http://inserbia.info/news/2014/03/ukrai ... ev-report/
Ukraine’s Navy flagship refuses to follow orders from Kiev – report

Ukraine’s Navy flagship, the Hetman Sahaidachny frigate, has reportedly refused to follow orders from Kiev, and come over to Russia’s side and is returning home after taking part in NATO operation in the Gulf of Aden flying the Russian naval flag.
Frigate Hetman Sahaydachniy - Photo: Alexxx1979 / Wikipedia

There has been conflicting information on where exactly the vessel is, but a Russian senator has confirmed to Izvestia daily that the frigate defected to the Russian side, RT reported.

“Ukraine’s Navy flagship the Hetman Sahaidachny has come over to our side today. It has hung out the St Andrew’s flag,” Senator Igor Morozov, a member of the committee on the international affairs, told Izvestia daily.

He said the flagship is on its way back to the Black Sea after drills in the Mediterranean. “The crew has fulfilled the order by the chief commander of Ukraine’s armed forces Viktor Yanukovich,” he added.

http://rt.com/news/ukrainians-leave-russia-border-452/
675,000 Ukrainians pour into Russia as ‘humanitarian crisis’ looms

Published time: March 02, 2014

An estimated 675,000 Ukrainians left for Russia in January and February, fearing the “revolutionary chaos” brewing in Ukraine, Russia's Federal Border Guard Service said. Officials fear a growing humanitarian crisis.

On Sunday, the border guard service said Russian authorities have identified definite signs that a “humanitarian catastrophe” is brewing in Ukraine.

“In just the past two months (January-February) of this year…675,000 Ukrainian citizens have entered Russian territory,” Itar-Tass news agency cited the service as saying.

"If 'revolutionary chaos' in Ukraine continues, hundreds of thousands of refugees will flow into bordering Russian regions," the statement read.

Ukrainians have long formed a large presence in Russia. According to the official 2010 census, 1.9 million Ukrainians were officially living in Russia, although the head of the Federal Migration Service put that figure as high as 3.5 million one year before. While those migrants were often prompted by economic concerns, political turmoil has spiked the recent rise in Ukrainian’s attempting to leave the country.

On Saturday, Russian migration authorities reported that 143,000 requests for asylum had been sent to Russia within a two-week period. Russian officials have promised to expedite the processing of those requests.

“Tragic events in Ukraine have caused a sharp spike in requests coming from this country seeking asylum in Russia,” said the chief of the FMS’s citizenship desk, Valentina Kazakova. “We monitor figures daily and they are far from comforting. Over the last two weeks of February, some 143,000 people applied.”

Kazakova said most requests come from the areas bordering Russia, and especially from Ukraine’s south.

“People are lost, scared and depressed,” she said. “There are many requests from law enforcement services, state officials as they are wary of possible lynching on behalf of radicalized armed groups.”

A week after the government of Viktor Yanukovich was toppled by violent street protests, fears of deepening political and social strife have been particularly acute in Ukraine’s country's pro-Russian east and south.

Soon after Yanukovich opted to flee the country in what he branded as an extremist coup, a newly reconfigured parliament did away with a 2012 law on minority languages which permitted the use of two official languages in regions where the size of an ethnic minority exceeds 10 percent.

Apart from the Russian-majority regions affected by this law, Hungarian, Moldovan and Romanian also lost their status as official languages in several towns in Western Ukraine.

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said Ukrainian deputies were wrong to cancel the law, while European parliamentarians urged the new government to respect the rights of minorities in Ukraine, including the right to use Russian and other minority languages.

Konstantin Dolgov, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s commissioner for human rights, was far more damning in his criticism.

“The attack on the Russian language in Ukraine is a brutal violation of ethnic minority rights,” he tweeted.

Out of some 45 million people living in Ukraine, according to the 2013 census, some 7.6 million are ethnic Russians. Leaders of several predominately Russian-speaking regions have said they will take control.l

[bahdada]

.Did it guarantee us alternative supplies at reasonable rates?

Yes Saudi at Market Rates

http://oil-price.net/

Western Texas is at $102 ...expect our Oil Deficit to rise and petrol prices to go up shortly

What does that matter to our resident Russian Fanboi's?

[Philip]

Have you watched how the spineless yanqui quislings of the Congress and UPA have devastated the rupee and hugely raised petrol and diesel prices over the last year,when prices globally have stabilised? Had we been allowed by the US to import as much as we wanted from Iran ,we perhaps would've been able to have had lower energy bills.I just paid 480 bucks for a domestic gas cylinder,what was the price when UPA-2 took over?
Does Snake-oil Singh or the Clown Prince care an iota?

[Singha]

To prevent a pogrom i would imagine Russia might need to occupy and annex the eastern provinces of Ukraine and enforce no fly zones.

[TSJones]

^^^What is important is to maintain a united ant-American front. It makes no difference that the majority of Ukrainian people want EU ties not necessarily American ties. No, what is important is that the Russian toady, kleptocracy government be restored over the wishes of the Ukrainian people. And as long as this is coached in anti-American terms, the lovers of democracy and peace that post on this thread that love what Russia does, are having a warm fuzzy high. Who gives a fig that India may have to enjoy high oil prices? Cuz, they're feelin' great man!

[Austin]

Yes Saudi at Market Rates

http://oil-price.net/

Western Texas is at $102 ...expect our Oil Deficit to rise and petrol prices to go up shortly

What does that matter to our resident Russian Fanboi's?

The Oil prices have been rising for past few weeks and it seems this is due to US Demand coz of cold

http://www.startribune.com/business/246816451.html

Oil prices wont rise coz of ukraine crises as there is no Oil there this is not ME country and AFAIK we import Saudi Crude bechmarked on WTI and not the Russian one based on Brent prices.

[habal]

Russians are currently not doing anything dramatic, but just the bare minimum to create a level playing field. USA meanwhile is the second coming of Gog & Magog, evil spirits who do their utmost best to destroy humanity.

[Supratik]

Russia should have intervened when Yugoslavia was being broken up. This is internal conflict for dominance of the European people. The Slavs are being slowly broken up into small pieces, using internal differences, that will come under western influence.

[Singha]

Yes tsj, the poor ukrainians surely deserve the kind of peace loving and development oriented rulers the west has put on Libya and trying in Syria. One need not mention the flowering of western sponsored democracy in qatar Bahrain and Saudi..and tsp as well...good going.

[Austin]

675,000 Ukrainians pour into Russia as ‘humanitarian crisis’ looms

An estimated 675,000 Ukrainians left for Russia in January and February, fearing the “revolutionary chaos” brewing in Ukraine, Russia's Federal Border Guard Service said. Officials fear a growing humanitarian crisis.

On Sunday, the border guard service said Russian authorities have identified definite signs that a “humanitarian catastrophe” is brewing in Ukraine.

“In just the past two months (January-February) of this year…675,000 Ukrainian citizens have entered Russian territory,” Itar-Tass news agency cited the service as saying.

"If 'revolutionary chaos' in Ukraine continues, hundreds of thousands of refugees will flow into bordering Russian regions," the statement read.

[Austin]

TIME WORLD

Pro-Russian citizens genuinely fear the new Ukrainian government is fascistic and will persecute them

Many Ukrainians Want Russia To Invade

[Austin]

Some how I fail to understand Russian Strategy here , They can engage the UN if there is any killing of Russian Citizens.

No need for any military action now ......Unless they are just playing this to raise the Ante ....All Talks No Action types just to keep the issue on boil and to give a feeling of reassurance to East/North Ukranians

[Austin]

Yes tsj, the poor ukrainians surely deserve the kind of peace loving and development oriented rulers the west has put on Libya and trying in Syria. One need not mention the flowering of western sponsored democracy in qatar Bahrain and Saudi..and tsp as well...good going.

The major loss of life in all adventure of US has been in IRAQ , You can see the Madeline Albright video where half a million baby dead is said as justified and that was in 90's now in 2000 they had 2nd Invasion of Iraq where the loss of life has been major , mostly due to sectarian issue , A study done puts the figure at 1 million plus generations of Iraqi lost their life in 2 decades since 1st US invasion and subsequent sanctions.

In both cases blatant attack on Iraq in the guise of US National Security Interest ( No Nuclear Weapons found after all )

At the same time deny Russia the same argument even though their citizen is directly involved .......the hippocracy being the same Western nation who supported US then are supporting US now .....Some thing dont change no matter how much they change.

Although I would say it would be stupid of Russia to take any Military Action unless there is major loss of Russian Life in Ukraine ....No need to Ape the West .... eventually Karma catches up.

If Ukraine wants to join EU then all the more welcome .....No need to subsidie Ukraine with Gas or Bank Roll Antonov or other industry like they have been doing since 1992

[Philip]

Good note about the Saudis and Qataris,America's chiedf bum-chums in the Middle East,who use Indians as slave labour,burying them alive and hundreds dying in slave like conditions building stadia in the desert.
Ask the natives of Libya,Tunisia,Egypt,Syria,Bahrein,Iraq,Afghanistan and Pakistan about the "collateral damage" in which millions have been killed thanks to the US and NATO.
Mad-Bright's outrageous comment about the death of Iraqi childrentruly exposes the US's anti-human policies if the affected are not white and on its side.

John Kerry in describing the limited Russian intervention as an "incredible act of aggression",should be given the Oscar for the best comedy performance tonight! Not one individual has been killed in Russia protecting its ethnic folk in the Crimea or elsewhere.In fact all talk of war has come from the fascist junta in Kiev who like the Georgian loser Shakashvili,who ranted and raved against Russia expecting military help from the US and NATO/EU ,found himself in the dustbin. The same fate awaits these pretenders to power in Ukraine.

Just watch how the Russians along with the Ukranian people will reverse the so-called revolution in the Ukraine.It will also expose the impotence of O'Bomber and his posse of poseurs.

How the Ukranian military is crumbling,having not been paid for months.The Navy's flagship has defecxted to Russia already!

Ukrainian troops dispatched in Crimea switch to region’s side – sources

Ukrainian armed forces dispatched to Crimea have switched to the side of local authorities and are expected to take military oath soon, Russian news agencies report.

Facts you need to know about Crimea and why it is in turmoil

“Today the majority of the Ukrainian armed forces deployed in Crimea passed to the side of the authorities of the Crimean autonomous region. The transition was absolutely peaceful, without a single shot fired either by the military or by the forces of self-defense,” an unnamed source told RIA Novosti news agency.

The source added that some of the servicemen also ran away, while some submitted letters of resignation.

The local military have not been paid for many months, the source also told RIA Novosti.

Earlier, Ukrainian troops in Crimea were said to be resigning on a massive scale. Living quarters, weapons and ammunition have all been left under the protection of the so-called ‘self-defense forces.’

Letters of resignation have been coming in since early morning, as the self-defense forces continue to preserve order on the streets of Simferopol, RIA Novosti said citing own reporters on the ground.

Since Thursday, the city’s Supreme Council and a number of other buildings have been occupied and guarded by the self-defense forces run by the local population.

Crimea’s deputy prime minister, Rustam Temirgaliev, announced that the Ukrainian armed forces have all but surrendered their military capabilities and that no active units remain in the Crimea.

"The entire Ukrainian armed forces stationed on the Crimean territory have been blocked," Interfax reported him as saying. "The self-defense forces have taken control of the landing strips of all the Crimean airports and airfields."

[Virupaksha]

^^^What is important is to maintain a united ant-American front. It makes no difference that the majority of Ukrainian people want EU ties not necessarily American ties. No, what is important is that the Russian toady, kleptocracy government be restored over the wishes of the Ukrainian people. And as long as this is coached in anti-American terms, the lovers of democracy and peace that post on this thread that love what Russia does, are having a warm fuzzy high. Who gives a fig that India may have to enjoy high oil prices? Cuz, they're feelin' great man!

the poor ukranians held an election and the elected president was sidelined by violent euro wannabes.

Remind me whom I should support
1) An ukranian people elected president in a free election
2) An ukranian street gang with euro support led by losers in the free election

[Singha]

Usa should intervene in this crisis and send the marines in. The black sea is quite near.

Ukraine needs protection frm Russian fascists and only usa can put boots on ground.
rest players in eu are like diwali crackers..all noise no bite.

[A_Gupta]

NYTimes has a good one.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/03/opini ... erbox.html

Excerpt: (emphasis added)

In the parallel universe of the Russian media, the preemptive and humanitarian nature of the operation gets pride of place. The ouster of Ukraine’s former president, Viktor F. Yanukovych, was a takeover by militant “ultranationalists,” Mr. Putin declared, and Ukraine was slipping toward widespread disorder. That line resonates at home. In a poll carried out in late February by the independent, Moscow-based Levada Center, 43 percent of Russians called the overthrow of Mr. Yanukovych a violent coup and 23 percent labeled the developing situation a civil war. A plurality of respondents saw the entire affair as an orchestrated attempt by the West to draw Ukraine into its geopolitical orbit.

This interpretive frame may be hard to understand, but some things are not wrong just because Russians happen to believe them. Russian news crews were covering a real story in Ukraine: the chaotic dismantling of a legally sanctioned government, the quick breakdown of an agreed framework for new elections, and the creeping transformation of political disputes into ethnic ones.

All of this points to the chief opportunity as well as the chief danger for Mr. Putin. The Crimean affair is a grand experiment in Mr. Putin’s strategy of equivalence: countering every criticism of his government’s behavior with a page from the West’s own playbook. If his government has a guiding ideology, it is not the concept of restoring the old Soviet Union. It is rather his commitment to exposing what Russian politicians routinely call the “double standards” of American and European foreign policy and revealing the hidden workings of raison d’état — the hardnosed and pragmatic calculation of interests that average citizens from Moscow to Beijing to New Delhi actually believe drives the policies of all great powers.

The United States typically interprets its own actions through the lens of its principles. It reads the principles of other countries from their behavior. In most instances that leads to precisely the hypocrisies that Russia, China and other countries find so easy to condemn.

But Crimea is different, and the results are potentially disastrous. With rival militias now forming on the peninsula and the Russian flag flying over government buildings in parts of southeastern Ukraine, the immediate task of diplomacy is to rescue Ukraine from the consequences of its accidental revolution.

and

Affirmations about territorial integrity and cries of foreign invasion are empty mantras at a moment when a major European country — unbuilt by a string of fatuous governments and now further destabilized from abroad — has ceased to exist as a functionally unified state. NATO cannot possibly extend security guarantees to a government that does not control its own territory. Yet even in the midst of a standoff, Russia and the West have a clear common interest: forestalling a civil war in the heart of Europe.

[g.sarkar]

Austin:Some how I fail to understand Russian Strategy here , They can engage the UN if there is any killing of Russian Citizens.

If you check what Ukraine exports and what it imports, the picture will be clear. It exports 60% of its products to the East and imports natural gas from the East. The EU does not need Ukraine's agriculture based products and can not give it the energy that it needs. To change this situation, billions and billions of Euros will be needed and EU can certainly not afford to pay for such investments. Does it need another Poland in the East which is one third Russian speaking? While Ukrainians would like to work in the EU freely and have a similar standard of living, the EU may not want another influx of foreign workers taking jobs away from the locals. Putin's strategy may be just to keep the pot on boil just to make the West pay for the unrest that they have caused and discourage their further involvement in other spheres of Russian influence.
Gautam

[BSR Murthy]

Forget the defection of the ship. The newly minted chief of Ukrainian navy himself defected!
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26410431

[JE Menon]

The Europeans haven't yet learned enough from the two "World" wars it seems...

[KrishG]

These are the same western governments that backed Kosovo's bid for secession from Serbia and many such movements. I think this is what is on Putin's mind. He wants a vote in Crimea on it's status. And the troops are just to ensure that the new Ukrainian government doesn't stop it from happening. There will be no invasion. What's the need of an armed invasion when everyone is sure about the outcome of such a vote? It will be pro-Russian and anti Ukrainian. Crimea is too important for Russia to let it remain in the hands of such an unstable country. The signs where are already clear for Russia when Yulia Tymoshenko threatened to throw Russia out Crimea. They just cannot let this strategic location be at whims of government changes in Ukraine. IMHO Putin wants to secure the future of this strategic location first and then deal with the rest of Ukraine. And Putin ideally wants all this to happen without a single shot being fired. It's the new Ukrainian government and the west that are fermenting fears of a Russian armed invasion.

[TSJones]

Usa should intervene in this crisis and send the marines in. The black sea is quite near.

Ukraine needs protection frm Russian fascists and only usa can put boots on ground.
rest players in eu are like diwali crackers..all noise no bite.

the US is not going to intervene. Just certain high tech luxery items will be made available if russia decides to get bloody about it. As much as you want to, this is not about US and Russia. The ukrains want to be euros not russians. The US is not enamored with any of the leadership in Ukrain. I thought Nuland made that quite clear. Remember the Russians released that conversation to discredit the ukrain opposition and the EU's feebled body. somehow this has all transformed into a hate USA campaign, like the US started all of this. this was started by ukrain desire to be closer to the eu and russia interfered.

[vishvak]

USA won't mind if a country prefers to buy goods and weaponry from USA instead of Russia. Same for Europeans. Never mind NGOs from USA, in this case started by eBay founder, meddling and muddling without any clear cut benefits.

[KrishG]

the US is not going to intervene. Just certain high tech luxery items will be made available if russia decides to get bloody about it. As much as you want to, this is not about US and Russia. The ukrains want to be euros not russians. The US is not enamored with any of the leadership in Ukrain. I thought Nuland made that quite clear. Remember the Russians released that conversation to discredit the ukrain opposition and the EU's feebled body. somehow this has all transformed into a hate USA campaign, like the US started all of this. this was started by ukrain desire to be closer to the eu and russia interfered.

This was started by the ultra nationalist segments of the Ukrainian political system, adored by Western governments, when they hijacked the pro-Euro protests. And these right wing groups are rabidly anti Russian. These are the people who were made the leaders of new interim government even though they did not have support of the majority of Ukrainians (and the West complains that power in Crimea has been handed to right wing anti Ukrainian party without any majority support..height of double standards). The Western governments were quick to recognize interim government as legitimate one. Russia is just trying to protect it's interests and the interests of those who do not identify themselves with the government in Kiev.

[Virupaksha]

the US is not going to intervene. Just certain high tech luxery items will be made available if russia decides to get bloody about it. As much as you want to, this is not about US and Russia. The ukrains want to be euros not russians. The US is not enamored with any of the leadership in Ukrain. I thought Nuland made that quite clear. Remember the Russians released that conversation to discredit the ukrain opposition and the EU's feebled body. somehow this has all transformed into a hate USA campaign, like the US started all of this. this was started by ukrain desire to be closer to the eu and russia interfered.

and all of them telephoned Shri TSJones to tell that.

A bunch of euro paid gangster and a democratically elected president had to escape these violent loons.

[Mort Walker]

India needs to stay out of this in every possible way in terms of making any official statements. India has no dog in this fight!

It needs to concentrate on its elections and make sure NAMO becomes PM. All else is irrelevant.