Managing Chinese Threat

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Christopher Sidor
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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Japan’s Plutonium Plans Stoke China Tensions on A-Bomb Risk. ---- Bloomberg dated 24-March-2014

The nightmare of PLA and CPC a nuclear Japanese state. Japan already has the tech for missiles and nuclear technology
“Japan has stockpiled large volumes of sensitive nuclear materials, including not only plutonium but also uranium, and that’s far exceeding its normal needs,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang told reporters on March 11.
....
....
“The Chinese have said they saw Japan plutonium as a weapons option and I think that many people in Japan do too,” said Frank von Hippel, a former White House national security adviser.
....
....

Rokkasho is designed to separate as much as 8 tons of plutonium per year for reactor fuel. If diverted, that’s enough material to make hundreds of nuclear bombs like the one dropped over Nagasaki in 1945.
...
About eight kilograms (18 pounds) of plutonium are needed for a single bomb.
Let us do some maths. Assume the Japanese plant, i.e. Rokkasho, is running at full capacity and some half a metric ton of plutonium is diverted or lost. Out of 500 kgs plutonium one can make some 27 bombs of size similar to one in Nagasaki. And if 10 of these are converted to primaries in thermo nuclear bombs then for 10 mega cities on mainland PRC and Taiwan, things will get very very hot. But compare the size of this arsenal with the known size of PRC's arsenal. Hysteria is a word which props up in the mind.

Moreover Japan would have to build a bigger arsenal as compared to PRC due to the size of PRC. PRC need not build 100's of nuclear bombs as the target list is small w.r.t Japan. On the other hand Japan would have to build hundreds of bombs as the target size in PRC is massive.
member_19686
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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Why would Japan build nukes for Taiwan?

PRC & the 2 Koreas are what Japanese consider their enemy states not Taiwan.

Don't know where you get your info but Abe has done his best to warm up to Taiwan & Taiwanese (those who are not from mainland & who make up 84% of the population) tend to like Japan.

Which country do you think raised huge money after the Great East Japan quake?
Because Taiwan is indisputably one of the world’s most pro-Japanese countries, Japan and its people cannot afford to remain indifferent to the country’s future. The relief funds for the victims of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami donated by the Taiwanese, who number some 23 million, amounted to a stunning 20 billion (US$250 million). This, however, was not the result of any fund-raising campaigns led by President Ma. Rather, it was the accumulated total of donations made by a large number of people in the island nation. In other words, it genuinely reflects the affection and friendship of the Taiwanese for Japan.
   Visiting Taiwan last March 19 to address the third World Taiwanese Congress, slightly over a week after the Great East Japan Earthquake, I was immensely touched by the encouraging words people at every street corner showered me with as soon as they thought I might be Japanese. I heard things -€ such as “Keep up the fight, Japan!”; “Don’t let the disaster get you down. Japan will certainly bounce back on its feet again”; and “We Taiwanese are always on your side.” These and many other encouraging words, uttered by total strangers nearly brought me to tears as I realized how much the people of Taiwan care for my mother country.

http://en.yoshiko-sakurai.jp/2011/07/28/2898
Hearing the word “Taiwan” today, many Japanese are instantly reminded with a deep sense of gratitude of the generous and humanitarian relief assistance extended by the country and its people when the Pacific coast of eastern Japan was devastated by the Great East Japan Earthquake and ensuing tsunami on March 11, 2011. The edition of Taiwan Kadan I have contains a selection of poems composed in Japanese by members of the tanka group eager to have the Japanese hear their messages of encouragement, hope, and prayers as soon as possible.
   One of the poems, this one by Cai himself, reads:
   Struck by earthquake and tsunami:
   A national calamity.
   Save the beloved mother country,
   We exhort the young people.
   As if to respond to Cai’s appeal, tens of thousands of Taiwanese contributed money and scores actually flew to Japan and visited the affected areas, braving the cold as they selflessly engaged in various relief activities night and day.
   Another poem, written by Lin Yu-xiu:
   May the cherry blossoms bloom early,
   Bringing good luck
   To the disaster-struck regions
   Of what was my mother country long ago.
   Lin’s wish for “cherry blossoms (to) bloom early ” exactly reflected the hope of virtually every single Japanese at the time. At such a time of great devastation, Lin’s heart went out to all of the Japanese badly shaken by the untimely disaster.
   Immensely touched and encouraged by the passion of the Taiwanese for brotherly assistance, the Japanese expressed their heartfelt gratitude, which drew this entry in another poem written by Liu Xin-xin:
   “Thank you, Taiwan”:
   This precious message from Japan
   We will be sure to hand down
   To our children, and our children’s children...

http://en.yoshiko-sakurai.jp/2012/08/07/4026
Japanese media covering Taiwanese help:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf-SPEhWDpE
To Counter Beijing, Japan Moves Closer to Taiwan

http://chinhdangvu.blogspot.ca/2014/02/ ... um=twitter
SSridhar
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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Book Review of "Asymmetrical Threat Perceptions in India-China Relations" - Tien Sze Fang
International relations theories during the Cold War were largely predicated on the global matrix of two super powers setting the context for relations amongst smaller powers. The end of Cold War and emergence of new powers have tested and stretched the theoretical framework. It is still a work in progress and the series of writings related to South Asia, led by Oxford International Relations in South Asia Series, has made a valuable contribution in the field. The book under review is remarkable in Sino-Indian relations being addressed by a Taiwanese diplomat-scholar. Taiwan has a unique relationship with China based on a mix of historical animosity, national identity, economic and power asymmetry and the dominant influence of United States. Unlike the mainstream neo-realism or neo-liberal streams of international relations analysis, this book attempts a constructivist understanding of the relations between India and China. The author, who was based in India, makes a fascinating analysis of the mutual threat perceptions of the two countries. It is interesting that both the stronger and weaker player in the Sino-Indian dyad, see the other as a threat to its interests. The analysis covers the four major dimensions of the two states’ troubled relationship, viz; nuclear issues, Tibet, border problem and regional competition. {He could have also added 'Global issues' like Climate, Terrorism, UN Reforms South-South issues, East-West issues etc}

Perceptions and misperceptions of threat become a variable in the strategic policies of states. International relations theorists have long analysed threat perceptions as the estimated intent and capabilities of the adversary state. Based on such analysis, not always wise or right, states adopt countermeasures to cope with the perceived threat. These have often taken the form of balancing, through internal strength, either military or economic or both, or external partnerships with allies. Some other states try ‘band wagoning’ by joining another power while some others seek a constructive engagement through Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) to reduce the threat. The book puts out the view, not surprisingly, that the weaker of the two will attempt to reduce the asymmetry by improving its capabilities. This is what in fact India is doing militarily albeit slowly and by building a network of cooperative relationship with other states extending from the Asia Pacific to Indian Ocean. As the author argues, this in itself can be a trigger for perceptional misunderstanding.

India’s nuclear weapons capability, is quite clearly not driven by the nuclear powers in the UN Security Council other than China. Pakistan’s nuclear capability, supported and sustained by China, added to New Delhi’s perceptions of asymmetry. India was willing to pay the price of economic and other sanctions in order to become a nuclear weapons state. It was a major measure to change the asymmetry, which allowed New Delhi to approach its bilateral problems with China in a more confident manner. China does not see India as a serious nuclear threat, but the resulting change in India’s stature as a rising power and the resultant improved ties with the US is a new variable in China’s calculus of asymmetry.

Tibet has been a source of continuing friction between China and India. China has not been able to satisfy either the Tibetan population or the global opinion on its intentions in Tibet. It opposes the discourse on autonomy, and has hugely changed the military infrastructure in Tibet. It has little leverage over the role of the Dalai Lama and over international media on its reporting on Tibet. Beijing’s sense of inadequacy clearly creates a perception of threat in China’s party and military leadership. While India is not the cause of this, and has unambiguously stated its position on Tibet being a part of China, the Tibetan question will continue to remain part of China’s sense of asymmetric threat to its national identity. Indian analysts are not unjustified in arguing that the slow pace of boundary negotiations and a continuing series of irritants on the disputed borders have a connection with Beijing’s Tibet conundrum.

South Asia has become an arena for the rivalry between China and India. Hostile relations between India and Pakistan, Beijing’s involvement in it through its military and nuclear assistance to Pakistan, its role in Sri Lanka, China’s actions in Nepal, Myanmar and in Maldives have all added to New Delhi’s threat perceptions from China. China’s approach to the resolution of the boundary issue and its tone and tenor during the stand off on the LAC in Ladakh in 2013, have all combined to create in India the widely held perception of a hostile and inflexible China. China’s economic growth, admirable in itself, when combined with its massive military capabilities and its peremptory demands on Japan, Indonesia and South Korea have led to intensified perceptions of Chinese strategic threats from Washington DC to Canberra. Every Indian defence budget gets compared with China’s. The Vote on Account budget presented in the Indian Parliament in February 2014 evoked the common plaint that it is no match to Beijing’s defence allocations. China on the other hand, sees no major threat from Indian economic and military capabilities. This asymmetry in threat perception is analysed with insight by the author.

New Delhi and India {sic} both have a shared interest in a just and stable international system. The two countries both seek a multi-polar world. Nevertheless, China has clearly shown its hand against India, by working against the latter’s entry as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. The idea of parallel rise of India and China has been voiced by Indian leaders and supported by the Indian media, including this paper. The co-emergence of the two rising powers has found traction in both countries, albeit with the two states rising at different pace and capacity. There is in reality a considerable gap between the Indian and Chinese aspirations and actions. Each blames the other for working against its interests. Neither side clearly needs or seeks a conflict, although Chinese actions in 2013 raised the ante to disturbing levels. Threat perceptions thus play a meaningful part in managing the relationship that has a complex mix of both conflict and cooperative elements, which this useful book does well to explain.
raj.devan
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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SSridhar wrote:Anti-dam march in Myanmar - The Hindu
Dozens of protesters began a 2,400-km march on Sunday to northern Myanmar, calling for the cancellation of a Chinese-backed hydroelectric dam project over environmental concerns. The $3.6 billion dam along the Irrawaddy River, which was supposed to export 90 per cent of its power to China, was suspended in 2011.

Now, many worry construction will resume after the 2015 general elections.

Waving banners calling for permanent cancellation of the Myitsone dam, around 60 people gathered early Sunday in a suburb of the main city of Yangon.

They will walk along the Irrawaddy River , said one of the organisers. He expects the march to Myitsone in Kachin state, where the dam is located, to take up to 70 days.

The vast majority of Burmese do not have access to electricity. — AP

And they may not get much electricity in the future either. The mega dam Projects on the Irrawaddy River are financed by Chinese corporations with the intent of supplying power to China's industrial boom in Yunnan. I'm not sure about this particular dam project, but a lot of dams in Northern Myanmar are awaiting a resolution of the Kachin Rebellion before they proceed.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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NightWatch For the night of 25 March 2014
North Korea: North Korea test-fired two medium-range ballistic missiles, just hours after the US, South Korea and Japan met in the Netherlands for talks. It is the first launch of a Nodong missile since 2009 and marks an escalation from the short-range rockets Pyongyang has fired in recent weeks. The launches also came on the fourth anniversary of the sinking of a South Korean warship. Washington and Seoul condemned the launch, which violates UN resolutions.

Comment: These launches are unlike the short-range rocket launches because of the Nodong's ability to strike Japan. The other rockets can be test fired without posing a threat to anyone. Not the Nodong. This was a display of pique over the meetings in the Netherlands, as warned by the deputy UN ambassador.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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China's rare-earth trade limits break global rules: WTO - The Hindu
China has broken the rules of global commerce by restricting exports of rare earths, tungsten and molybdenum, a move that benefitted domestic industries, a World Trade Organization panel said on Wednesday.

A WTO disputes settlement panel said that Beijing’s deployment of export duties and quotas, plus limits on who could trade in what are key raw materials for making electronic goods, skewed global commerce unfairly against fellow nations. — AFP
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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US judge rules Baidu's censorship is protected as free speech
A U.S. judge has ruled that the Chinese search engine Baidu has the right to block pro-democracy works from its query results, dismissing a lawsuit that sought to punish the company for Internet censorship.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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China slams Abe's remarks - Ananth Krishnan, The Hindu
China on Friday reacted with anger to reported comments by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that appeared to draw a parallel between Russia's recent actions in Crimea and Chinese claims on disputed East China Sea islands.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry accused Mr. Abe of attempting to “defame” China, after the Japanese leader had been quoted as saying during the recent meeting of G7 (Group of Seven) leaders, following Russia's expulsion from the grouping, that the Crimea issue had parallels in Asia. “What’s happening in Crimea isn’t merely an issue for this region, but it could happen in Asia,” Mr. Abe said according to Japanese media reports. “In that sense,” he added, “it is an issue for the whole of the international community.”

Relations between China and Japan have been strained over the disputed East China Sea islands, known as Diaoyu in China and Senkaku in Japan. Responding to Mr. Abe’s remarks, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hong Lei said Mr. Abe had “hypocritically pledged to improve China-Japan relations while speaking ill of China in the international community.”

“His words again exposed his intention to confuse the public and defame China,” he was quoted as saying by the official Xinhua news agency, adding that China had the “unswerving will to safeguard its national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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Senkaku Islands Menaced Anew by China - Japan Times
Three Chinese coast guard vessels intruded Saturday into territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, the Japan Coast Guard reported.

The incursion was the seventh this year. The most recent had been on March 15.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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Philippines seeks arbitration at U.N. over China's claims on South China Sea - WSJ
The Philippines filed an arbitration case Sunday with the United Nations over China's growing assertiveness in the South China Sea, raising the ante in a long-running dispute over who owns what in the strategic, energy-rich waters.

Manila has been preparing for months to file its challenge to China's claim to control everything within a broad expanse of the sea delineated by its so-called "nine-dash line." The Philippines' submission is nearly 4,000 pages long, includes more than 40 maps and is aimed at countering Beijing's argument that controlling mostly submerged features such as reefs or shoals provides China with sovereignty over the sea, including some 80% of the Philippines' U.N.-declared exclusive economic zone.

The contested waters include areas potentially rich in oil and gas, as well as rich fishing waters such as Scarborough Shoal, where Philippine and Chinese vessels were locked in a standoff for nearly two months in 2012.

China so far has abstained from the proceedings in the matter, which the Philippines first raised in January under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea. Now that the case for arbitration has been filed, the UN tribunal will decide on what steps are to be taken next.

Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario said on Sunday that seeking arbitration "is about defending what is legitimately ours" and securing a "just and durable solution grounded on International Law."

China's foreign ministry dismissed the arbitration filing in a statement posted on its website Sunday night, reiterating its position that it considers the dispute a bilateral matter to be resolved through direct negotiations. "Regardless of how the Philippines packages its complaint, the direct cause of the dispute is illegal occupation of reefs in the South China Sea on the part of the Philippines," it said.

The Philippines' challenge comes as Manila engages in another protracted cat-and-mouse game to evade Chinese ships apparently attempting to blockade one of the Philippines' few outposts in the region: a rusting hulk marooned on Second Thomas Shoal.

A Philippine ship managed Saturday to slip past a Chinese vessel to resupply a small contingent of Filipino soldiers aboard the World War II-era Sierra Madre, which was steered onto Second Thomas Shoal in 1999. The wreck is one of the Philippines' few visible claims to sovereignty in the South China Sea, something of a symbolic marker in efforts to withstand China's growing ambitions.

In recent weeks China has attempted to stop Philippine forces from resupplying the wreck, forcing the Philippines to conduct air drops. Journalists from the Associated Press and other news organizations were aboard the Philippine supply vessel and reported hearing a Chinese coast guard ship warning it to stay away by radio. The Philippine ship, carrying some 10 tons of food and water, slipped away after heading into shallower waters where the Chinese vessel couldn't follow.

China's foreign ministry said in a statement Saturday that "China will absolutely not allow the Philippines to occupy" Second Thomas Shoal.

The Philippine legal challenge to China's claims is perhaps a more significant display of resistance.

The waters, which carry around half of the world's trade, are also claimed in part by Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan and tensions have led to a series of confrontations in past decades. Any decision by the U.N. could bear on how the overlapping territorial claims are ultimately resolved and could stir tensions between China and the U.S.

The Obama administration infuriated Beijing in 2010 when then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described the free navigation of the South China Sea as being in America's "national interest."

China has since attempted to step up control, among other things dispatching nominally civilian coast guard vessels into disputed waters. Beijing argues each territorial dispute should be resolved on a bilateral basis. Washington and the Association of Southeast Asian want a multilateral, rules-based approach.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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Is Obama pivot to Asia on hold?
Pentagon officials have insisted that the rebalance to the Pacific is still on, despite budget constraints and new tensions in Europe that suggest America can’t ignore the Old World.But lawmakers are increasingly skeptical the military can carry out the pivot, particularly if the crisis with Russia escalates. “Robert Zarate, policy director of the Foreign Policy Initiative (FPI), said that the budget for the Pacific rebalance could face an even tighter squeeze if Congress and the Pentagon feel they have to boost the U.S. military posture in Europe.“If you’d told a military planner one year ago they would have to be ready for a Russian invasion of Ukraine, they might have looked at you funny,” Zarate said.“If you need to focus more on Europe, and we’re facing a scarcity — not just in actual manpower and resources but also a scarcity of attention — where does that leave the rebalance?”Some Obama critics say the latest troubles show talk of an Asian pivot is empty rhetoric.“Since there was never any realism associated with it, I don’t think it matters that much,” Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) told The Hill. “Their defense budget has so many cuts in it that there’s no way they could really increase our [naval presence in Asia].”He specifically criticized cuts to the Navy’s shipbuilding, which he described as a major part of a pivot.White House and Pentagon officials say the administration is not abandoning its plans in the Pacific.Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel is heading to Asia next week and will make a stop in China, and Obama will travel to Asia in April. “We've got a significant agenda in Asia that we're going to continue to pursue that is not going to be impacted by what we're doing in Europe,” Ben Rhodes, White House deputy national security adviser, said this week. Lawmakers from both parties, however, are wondering at what point the rebalance topples over.At a hearing this week, Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) asked Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jonathan Greenert whether Russia’s annexation of Crimea was the tipping point.“After what has happened in Crimea, the things you've looked at there, the other challenges that we have — have those kind of things made it more difficult to rebalance to the Pacific?” Donnelly asked. “Is it a question of, we know you're stretched — is there a point where the rubber band snaps?”
”The strategy was largely seen as a way to deter China as Beijing boosted its military and took aggressive steps against its neighbors.China’s rising spending has put U.S. cuts to the Navy’s fleet under scrutiny. Republicans have criticized the Navy for not meeting its own 306-ship plan and argue China could take advantage.Zarate said that while the Navy is moving toward plans to put 60 percent of its ships into the Pacific and 40 percent in the Atlantic as part of the rebalance, it is reaching that goal by decommissioning ships from the Atlantic rather than adding to the Pacific.“We are growing our forward presence, no matter what the budget,” Greenert said at a House hearing this week. “I mean, whether we go to the Budget Control Act or not, we must grow as we do this rebalance.”But some critics of the Obama administration’s refocus on Asia say that, even if the crisis in Ukraine doesn’t stop the Pacific pivot, the administration can’t predict future threats.“The notion that somehow we can pick and choose what matters in the world and dance around paying attention to this and then to that is geopolitically laughable,” said Danielle Pletka, vice president of foreign and defense policy studies at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute.

http://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill/20 ... z2xaDs2VFf
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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The Chinese threat is not only militaristic but also economic or in terms of plundering natural resources. We have seen their aggressive plundering of natural resources all over the world, Africa, South America, Afghanistan, Myanmar and India (rhino horns, lions and tigers). Within the last year, it is the costly red sanders and especially through Tamilnadu. I have seen at least half a dozen cases in the last year. This is anther one.
Sleuths of the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) on Monday seized 10 metric tonnes of red sanders worth Rs 4.5 crore stocked in a container.

The consignment was about to be routed via Tuticorin port and Dubai and finally to China. The red sanders logs were covered with poly propylene woven fabrics as outer cover.

Guidelines

DRI sources said that red sanders are normally grown in Andhra Pradesh, Northern Tamil Nadu and Vellore. Growing and cutting of red sanders are strictly subject to the guidelines of the Forest Department.

Red sanders are increasingly used for making cosmetics, musical instruments and costly furniture meant for star hotels abroad.

As a result of the growing market, gangs involved in felling and smuggling of red sanders are always in constant conflict with the police and forest department.

Directorate of Revenue Intelligence sleuths are now probing to ascertain the source of the red sanders, consignor and consignee.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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NightWatch on the China-Philippines row
Philippines-China: Over the weekend, a Philippine commercial cargo ship delivering supplies to a Philippine Marine squad on Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands group west of Palawan Island encountered two Chinese patrol ships. The Chinese name for the shoal is the Ren'ai Reef. The Philippine ship carried a media film crew who captured and broadcast the confrontation at sea. The Chinese warned the Philippine ship away and moved their ships to block the Philippine ship from reaching the eight Marines, who rotate duty on a rust-bucket ship deliberately run aground to show the Philippine flag. The Philippine ship captain outmaneuvered the Chinese and delivered the supplies. This generated a diplomatic confrontation. Today, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman replied to a question. "Following the Philippines' announcement on 29 March of delivering supplies to the "grounded" warship on Ren'ai Reef (Second Thomas Shoal), Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Albert del Rosario announced on the 30th that the Philippines had filed a case on that day with the international arbitration tribunal regarding the disputes between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea. Does the Chinese side have any comment?" "Regarding the Philippines' announcement. . . I already reiterated the Chinese side's solemn position of not accepting or participating in the arbitration immediately after that." "Regarding the issue of Ren'ai Reef, I want to point out that the Philippine side's organization of a press event in the waters around Ren'ai Reef the day before the submission of its arbitration case was absolutely a deliberately planned act with the aim of further hyping up the Ren'ai Reef issue, building momentum for the Philippine side in pursuing international arbitration, and serving the Philippine side's attempt to illegally occupy the Chinese territory of Ren'ai Reef. . . . " "The Chinese side will never allow the Philippine side to occupy Ren'ai Reef in any way, nor will it ever allow the Philippine side's attempt to build facilities on Ren'ai Reef in violation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea to succeed. The Philippine side will surely bear the consequences of its provocative acts."

Comment: The Philippine Marines received supplies; no shots were fired this time; and international news media were eyewitnesses to Chinese behavior at sea. As usual the Chinese blame all other claimants of bad faith for failing to recognize China's sovereignty. The Chinese position rules out arbitration or negotiations of any kind that do not start with acceptance of Chinese sovereignty of the South China Sea. The key point is the threat that China will never allow the Philippines to occupy the reef in any way or to build on the reef. That implies China will dismantle any structures and eventually will find a way to remove the Philippine Marines. The Chinese description of Philippine assertions of sovereignty as "provocations" means that China will blame the Philippines for any loss of life or property destruction if shooting occurs. China's position is that it is responding with restraint to provocations, which implies that restraint has limits. Eventually, there will be shooting.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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Taiwan's population drifting further apart from China.
Survey finds young adults worried about unification
In an opinion poll published yesterday, young Taiwanese between the ages of 20 and 29 showed the most serious concerns about unification with China and the highest support rate for Taiwanese independence — if maintaining the “status quo” became unsustainable.
The survey, conducted by the pro-independence Taiwan Brain Trust on Saturday and Sunday, found that “young people’s concerns about the inevitable eventual unification are clear,” the think tank’s president, Wu Rong-i (吳榮義), told a news conference in Taipei.
Citing the Sunflower movement, Wu said that Taiwanese youth have proven that they would take action to address their concerns and fight for their future, which the elder generation found encouraging.
The poll found that 45 percent of the respondents, including 59 percent of the 20-to-29 age group, believed that the cross-strait service trade agreement would pave the way for unification with China more than it would promote economic growth.
Asked if they think Taiwan is an independent and sovereign country, 57.6 percent of respondents said “yes,” with 60.3 percent of the 20-to-29 age group giving a positive answer, second only to the 60-to-69 age group’s 62.7 percent.
On cross-strait relations, 7.7 percent supported the option “immediate independence,” 2.7 percent favored “immediate unification,” 18.7 percent supported “status quo now and independence in the future,” 7.7 percent backed “status quo now and unification in the future,” 33.9 percent were in favor of “status quo now with future decision pending” and 22.9 percent liked “permanent status quo.”
Further analysis found that 31.8 percent of the 20-to-29 age group favored independence in general, only slightly behind the 70-and-above age group’s 32.2 percent.
Young people’s preference of independence was confirmed in another question, which asked what their decision would be if the “status quo” was unsustainable.
Overall, 20.4 percent chose unification with China, while 62.7 percent supported independence.
However, respondents of the 20-to-29 age group (73.6 percent) and the 30-to-39 age group (68.3 percent) showed stronger support for independence than any other age group.
When asked about self-identity, if they were given only the options of Taiwanese and Chinese, 93 percent of the 20-to-29 age group said they preferred being Taiwanese, the highest among all age groups.
Overall, 88.4 percent of those polled chose being Taiwanese, while 7.7 percent said they considered themselves Chinese.

Similar results were found in other questions as 55.8 percent of the 20-to-29 age group and 58.9 percent of the 30-to-39 age group saw China as a “hostile country,” both at least 10 percentage points higher than other groups.
Taiwan Brain Trust founder Koo Kuang-min (辜寬敏) said the results reflected “the failure of Beijing’s Taiwan policy over the past 20 years” because it has turned the young Taiwanese, who grew up in an era of the most extensive cross-strait exchange in 60 years, into “China haters.”
“It is time for Beijing to change its Taiwan policy, as the strategy of absorbing Taiwan by economic means has proven a failure,” he said.
The survey collected 1,069 valid samples and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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US to China: Attempt no Crimea-style operation in Asia
China should not doubt the US commitment to defend its Asian allies and the prospect of economic retaliation should also discourage Beijing from using force to pursue territorial claims in Asia in the way Russia has in Crimea, a senior US official said on Thursday.

Daniel Russel, President Barack Obama's diplomatic point man for East Asia, said it was difficult to determine what China's intentions might be, but Russia's annexation of Crimea had heightened concerns among US allies in the region about the possibility of China using force to pursue its claims.

"The net effect is to put more pressure on China to demonstrate that it remains committed to the peaceful resolution of the problems," Russel, the US assistant secretary of state for East Asia, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Russel said the retaliatory sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States, the European Union and others should have a "chilling effect on anyone in China who might contemplate the Crimea annexation as a model."

This was especially so given the extent of China's economic interdependence with the United States and its Asia neighbors, Russel said.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei, asked about Russel's comments, said he was confusing two different issues.

"No matter whether the Ukraine issue or the South China Sea issue, China has many times expressed its position. Why must this US official mention the two issues in the same breath, and obstinately say these things about China?" Hong told a daily news briefing on Friday.

Russel added that while the United States did not take a position on rival territorial claims in East Asia, China should be in no doubt about Washington's resolve to defend its allies if necessary.

"The president of the United States and the Obama administration is firmly committed to honoring our defense commitments to our allies," he said.

While Washington stood by its commitments - which include defense treaties with Japan, the Philippines and South Korea - Russel said there was no reason why the rival territorial claims could not be resolved by peaceful means.

He said he hoped the fact that the Philippines had filed a case against China on Sunday at an arbitration tribunal in The Hague would encourage China to clarify and remove the ambiguity surrounding its own claims.

Russel termed the deployment of large numbers of Chinese vessels in its dispute with the Philippines in the South China Sea "problematic" and said that Beijing had taken "what to us appears to be intimidating steps."

"It is incumbent of all of the claimants to foreswear intimidation, coercion and other non-diplomatic or extra-legal means," he said.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Singha »

PLAN has intimated it is not willing to participate in RIMPAC under american overall command and instead said it is ok with Australian command. Aus has in the past led the naval component of rimpac exercise it seems.
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http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... sage_china
A Merkel, a Map, a Message to China?
(See Map in The Link)
March 28, German Chancellor Angela Merkel hosted visiting Chinese President Xi Jinping at a dinner where they exchanged gifts. Merkel presented to Xi a 1735 map of China made by prolific French cartographer Jean-Baptiste Bourguignon d'Anville and printed by a German publishing house. According to an antique-maps website, d'Anville's map was based on earlier geographical surveys done by Jesuit missionaries in China and represented the "summation of European knowledge on China in the 18th-century." The map showed, according to its original Latin caption, the so-called "China Proper" -- that is, the Chinese heartland mostly populated by ethnic Han people, without Tibet, Xinjiang, Mongolia, or Manchuria. The islands of Taiwan and Hainan -- the latter clearly part of modern China, the former very much disputed -- are shown with a different color border.
Historical maps are sensitive business in China. Every schoolchild in China learns that Tibet, Xinjiang, Taiwan, and the Diaoyu Islands have been "inalienable parts of China since ancient times." The d'Anville map, at least visually, is a rejection of that narrative. Unsurprisingly, China's official media outlets don't seem to have appreciated Merkel's gift. The People's Daily, which has given meticulous accounts of Xi's European tour, elided any coverage of the offending map. More curiously, when news of the map's presentation reached the Chinese heartland, it had somehow morphed into a completely different one. A map published in many Chinese-language media reports about Merkel's gift-giving shows the Chinese empire at its territorial zenith, including Tibet, Xinjiang, Mongolia, and large swaths of Siberia. This larger map was the handiwork of British mapmaker John Dower, published in 1844 by Henry Teesdale & Co. in London, and was certainly not the gift from Merkel to Xi. But this mistake was not noted or explained in Chinese reports.Both versions of the Merkel map have made appearances on Chinese social media, eliciting vastly different interpretations. Those who saw the d'Anville map seemed shocked by its limited territories. Hao Qian, a finance reporter, remarked that the map is "quite an awkward gift." Writer Xiao Zheng blasted Merkel for trying to "legitimize the Tibet and Xinjiang independence movements." Architect Liu Kun wrote, "The Germans definitely have ulterior motives." One Internet user asked, "How is this possible? Where is Tibet, Xinjiang, the Northeast? How did Xi react?"
The Dower map, on the other hand, seemed to stoke collective nostalgia for large territories and imperial power. An advertising executive enthused, "Our ancestors are badass." Another Internet user hoped Xi would feel "encouraged" by the map to "realize what a true re-emerge of China means." Some suspected that Merkel tried to send Xi a subtle reminder that Russia had helped Mongolia declare independence from China in the mid-20th century, somewhat like what Russia did in Crimea in March 2014.To be sure, the d'Anville map does not constitute a total contradiction of the Chinese government's version of history.To be sure, the d'Anville map does not constitute a total contradiction of the Chinese government's version of history. In 1735, the year when the Qianlong Emperor began his six-decade reign, his Qing empire's military prowess was on the ascent. Qianlong quelled a rebellion by Muslims in the western region of Xinjiang, brought the Mongol tribes under closer rule, and appointed officials to oversee affairs in Tibet such as the selection of the Dalai Lama. In other words, Qianlong established the trappings of imperial control over these peripheral territories, which allowed later governments -- the Republic of China, then the current People's Republic of China -- to claim sovereignty. Maps published by Western countries in the 19th and early 20th centuries vary in their presentations of Tibet and Xinjiang, but the Dower map is certainly not alone in showing Xinjiang and Tibet as parts of the Chinese empire.All the cartographic brouhaha may be overblown. One Internet user refused to "overinterpret" the d'Anville map as a message about Tibet or Xinjiang. After all, "You can't use a map of the 13 colonies of the United States made in 1776 to tell Americans that Texas or California is not U.S. territory."
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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X-Post...
Jhujar wrote:http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 255_1.html
Shankar Sharma & Devina Mehra: The strange case for India's macroeconomic exceptionalism
We have saved China for the end. In early 2012, when we peeled off layers from the Chinese onion to show that far from being a low debt-to-GDP economy as was commonly believed then, China was leveraged to its eyeballs with debt-to-GDP at 150 per cent then. That number is well over 200 per cent now. Then, China needed 1.4 units of debt to generate one unit of GDP growth. It now needs two units of debt. From 2008, China has added $14 trillion to its bank credit! Its railway ministry has run up debt of $500 billion. Corporate debt is 150 per cent of GDP. Its inflexible exchange rates and soaring labour costs are making China uncompetitive in trade. Its money supply growth is twice its GDP, a major red flag. Bank non-performing loans could be 20 per cent of GDP easily: its fifth such crisis in 20 years.Note how easily the previously impregnable mark of 8.5 per cent GDP growth has now shifted down to seven per cent. Debt-fuelled booms end terribly, and we are pretty close to a protracted, painful endgame in China.

How does all of the above make you feel about India? Ten years of off-the-charts growth, while reducing debt-to-GDP sharply to 67 per cent from a near-bankruptcy level of 85 per cent under the NDA (all with seven per cent wholesale price inflation) and moderate current account deficit and external indebtedness? India has slowed? Well, compared to the precipitous drop every country has seen since 2008, a five per cent growth with near-zero debt risk is top-drawer performance.
It is puerile to expect India to be in macroeconomic nirvana, growing at eight per cent, with little fiscal or current account deficits and moderate inflation when the country is the world's third-largest economy (measured in terms of purchasing power parity), and, hence can't escape unscathed from the ravages of the global crisis. There is a collective cry for India's macroeconomic exceptionalism: that India should adhere to no global trends. And this leads to the under-analysed Panglossian view that we need Modi's nostrum, because he, single-handedly, can turn gale-force headwinds into tailwinds. It is most amusing how fund managers conveniently forget the meaning of "relative performance" and "risk-adjusted growth" when it comes to analysing India.
But, the ineluctable fact is that what India has achieved, particularly under UPA-II, is an outstanding economic performance. Sure, we have problems. But compared to what the rest of the world has, we will take ours any day. There is no absolute measure of greatness. It is always relative. And India's smartness lies in the fact that it saw from 2008 that it was no longer a 500-run wicket but a 200-run one. Almost no other country saw that.[b]And lastly, one has to shake one's head at the media's superficial (deliberate?) view that we are witnessing a Modi-based market rally.[/b]This is utter nonsense. The world has woken up to the fact that India has arguably had the best growth-risk profile of any major country in the world over 10 years, a negligible CAD, a competitive currency, with no intractable bubbles in the economy (the banks' bad loan problem is still just one per cent of GDP). We challenge N K Singh and Arvind Panagariya to show us any other economy that matches India on this matrix. Hence, our markets are reflecting this relative solidity of India's growth model.Is it anybody's case that we would still been at highs had we still been running a 4.5 per cent CAD?
Jiang Zemin had said something similar when he visited Banglore before he retired, that China was spending a lot for the products it exported.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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US defense secretary threatens China over territorial dispute with Japan

"All nations deserve respect, no matter how large or how small," Hagel said during a visit to Tokyo.

"I think we're seeing some clear evidence of a lack of respect, and coercion and intimidation with ... what the Russians have done in Ukraine," he told a joint news conference with his Japanese counterpart, Itsunori Onodera.

Countries had to speak up and clearly reject such a blatant violation of international law, said Hagel.

"You cannot go around and redefine boundaries, violate territorial integrity and sovereignty of nations by force, coercion and intimidation whether it's in small islands in the Pacific, or large nations in Europe," Hagel said.

"So I want to talk to our Chinese friends about this," said the defense secretary, who departs for Beijing on Monday.

Hagel's blunt remarks came as he reaffirmed Washington's military alliance with Tokyo and announced the deployment of two more ballistic missile defense ships to Japan, AFP reports.

The ships were being sent to help counter the threat posed by North Korea, Hagel said, but the move also carried symbolic weight amid Japan's tense stand-off with China over islets in the East China Sea.

"We take seriously America's treaty commitments, and we strongly oppose any unilateral coercive action that seeks to undermine Japan's administrative control," Hagel said.

Tokyo scrambled military aircraft last month after three Chinese planes flew near Japanese airspace, the latest confrontation in the row over islets in the East China Sea.

The islands are administered by Japan, which calls them the Senkaku Islands, but which China refers to as the Diaoyu Islands.

Chinese government ships and planes have been seen off the disputed islands numerous times since Japan nationalized them in September 2012, sometimes within the 12-nautical-mile territorial zone.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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US threatens China with Russia-like sanctions over territorial disputes
While speaking to a meeting of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the US assistant secretary of state for East Asia, Daniel Russel, said that the recent sanctions against Russia imposed by the US and EU should have "a chilling effect on anyone in China who might contemplate the Crimea annexation as a model," Reuters reports. While speaking to a meeting of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the US assistant secretary of state for East Asia, Daniel Russel, said that the recent sanctions against Russia imposed by the US and EU should have "a chilling effect on anyone in China who might contemplate the Crimea annexation as a model."

In response, the Chinese Foreign Ministry accused Russel of confusing two different issues and reiterated that the Chinese stance on the matter would remain unchanged.

This piece of diplomatic fencing was inspired by the fact that China had recently deployed a number of war ships in the disputed waters with the Philippines, which in turn filed a complaint against China.

Russel commented that the US considered this "to be intimidating steps." He noted that though the US had no intention to interfere in China's territorial disputes, it couldn't but caution China against making any wrong moves, especially taking into account the US defense cooperation agreements with the Philippines, South Korea and Japan.

"The president of the United States and the Obama administration is firmly committed to honoring our defense commitments to our allies," Russel stated, although he did not specify in what way the US was going to "honor" its commitments.

If this means imposing sanctions similar to those imposed on Russia over Crimea, it is unlikely to have any effect on China, just the way it had no effect on Russia's firm position on Crimea.

April 22, President Obama's official tour of Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines begins. He is supposed to reassure these countries of America's support for strategic and economic partnerships in the Asia-Pacific region.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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Two Aegis Ships Bound for Japan: US - Japan Times

While ostensibly to be deployed against North Korea, it also keeps surveillance on China.
The United States plans to deploy two additional Aegis destroyers to Japan by 2017 to reinforce missile defenses against increasingly provocative North Korea, visiting U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said Sunday.

During a joint news conference following an hourlong-meeting in Tokyo with Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera, Hagel said the two advanced destroyers, which are equipped with ballistic missile defense systems, will improve the ability of both Japan and the U.S. to protect themselves.

The ships will bring to seven the number of U.S. Aegis destroyers deployed in Japan, he said.

“These steps will greatly enhance our ability to defend both Japan and the U.S. homeland from North Korea’s ballistic missile threats,” Hagel said at the news conference, which was held at the Defense Ministry.

As for China’s growing assertiveness in waters around the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, Hagel said Washington maintains that the islets fall under the scope of the bilateral security treaty.

“I reaffirm since they are under Japan’s administrative control, they fall under . . . our mutual security treaty. We take seriously America’s treaty commitment and we strongly oppose any unilateral coercive action,” Hagel said.

Hagel, who will depart for China on Monday, said Beijing needs to respect its neighbors.

“China is a great power. With this power comes a new and wider responsibility as to how you use that,” he said.

The United States welcomes Japan’s efforts to play a more proactive role, contributing to global and regional peace and stability, including re-examining the interpretation of its Constitution relating to the right of collective self-defense,” he said.
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Managing Chinese Threat

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Islamists seek laughter, crying ban, China official says

BEIJING : The governor of China's restive far western region of Xinjiang wrote on Monday that
Islamist militants were trying to ban laughter at weddings and crying at funerals, as he appealed to people to stamp out the "tumour" of extremism.

Xinjiang, resource-rich and strategically located on the borders of central Asia, has been beset by violence for years, blamed by the government on Islamist militants and separatists.

Exiles and many rights groups say the real cause of the unrest is China's heavy-handed policies, including curbs on Islam and the culture and language of the Muslim Uighur people who call Xinjiang home.

China's nervousness about Islamist extremism has grown since a car burst into flames on the edge of Beijing's Tiananmen Square in October, and 29 people were stabbed to death last month in the south-western city of Kunming.

Beijing blamed Xinjiang militants for both.

Writing in the official Xinjiang Daily, Xinjiang governor Nur Bekri said that acts of terror had been made possible by extremists taking advantage of people's faith, especially "young people who have seen little of the world".

"In order to incite fanaticism and control believers, religious extremists have blatantly distorted religious teachings, making up heresy such as 'jihadist martyrs go to heaven,' 'killing a pagan is worth over 10 years of piety,' and 'one gets whatever one wants in heaven'," he wrote.

"They use this to bewilder believers into what they believe is 'jihad' in the form of suicide terrorist attacks or other violence," Bekri added. People who do not follow the strictures of the Islamists are condemned by them as "traitors" and "scum", he said.

China's ruling atheist Communist Party has issued similar warnings in the past about extremism, accompanied by a harsh crackdown on suspected militants.

Uighurs have traditionally followed a moderate form of Islam, but many have begun adopting practices more commonly seen in Saudi Arabia or Pakistan, such as full-face veils for women, as China has intensified a security crackdown in recent years.

Bekri, an Uighur himself, accused the militants of ignoring the region's own traditions and of wanting to enforce a strict theocratic society.

"They ... push the banning of watching television, listen to the radio, reading newspapers, singing and dancing, not allowing laughter at weddings nor crying at funerals," he added. "They force men to grow beards and women to wear the burqa."

Extremists are also demanding that not only food, but also cosmetics, medicine and clothing be halal, and push the idea that government-subsidised housing is not halal and to be avoided, Bekri wrote.

"Resolutely eliminate the tumour of religious extremism," he added.

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China 'should not worry' about closer Australia-Japan Defense ties - Japan Times
Closer defense ties between Japan and Australia should not raise concerns in regional superpower China, Prime Minister Tony Abbott said Tuesday.

Canberra and Tokyo struck a major agreement Monday to enhance trade and security ties, elevating the bilateral relationship to a new level.

Abbott told ABC Radio in Australia he is taking no sides in territorial disputes between China and other nations, and the growing relationship with Japan does not target anyone else.

“It’s not against any specific country and as far as I am concerned — as far as just about every country is concerned — what we want to see is more democracy, more freedom, more respect for the rule of law,” he said when asked about China.

“We say there should be no change to the status quo, which is brought about by force or by the threat of force,” he said.

Abbott noted there is already a high degree of defense cooperation between Australia and Japan, which is embroiled in territorial disputes with neighboring China.

Australian and Japanese defense forces hold exercises together and Japan has previously purchased some Australian defense equipment, including Bushmaster armored infantry transport vehicles, he said.

“We want to see more inter-operability between our militaries, we want to see more exercises between our militaries, we want to see over time more significant intelligence cooperation,” the prime minister told ABC.

On Tuesday Australia was set to sign a free trade pact with South Korea following four years of negotiations. After Seoul, Abbott will head to China on Wednesday.

The agreement to boost security cooperation came after Japan last week loosened a self-imposed ban on weapons exports in a move which unnerved China.

In a rare opening of Japan’s protected markets, the two countries announced Monday a “substantive agreement” on a long-awaited free trade deal.

In Tokyo, Abbott said it is the first time Japan has negotiated a comprehensive economic partnership agreement or free trade deal with a major economy.
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China Calls on US to Restrain its Ally Japan - Japan Times
China called on the United States on Tuesday to restrain ally Japan and chided another U.S. ally, the Philippines, at the end of talks between American and Chinese defense chiefs that showed the strain of regional territorial disputes on Sino-U.S. ties.

The forceful comments by Chinese Defense Minister Chang Wanquan came just a day after U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel toured China’s sole aircraft carrier, in a rare opening by Beijing to a potent symbol of its military ambitions.

Chang and Hagel spoke positively about improving military ties and announced steps to deepen them further. But the effort could do little to mask long-standing tension over of a range of issues, including in cyberspace but focused mainly on the two U.S. allies locked in territorial disputes with China.

China claims 90 percent of the 3.5 million-sq.-km (1.35 million-sq.-mile) South China Sea, where the Philippines, along with other countries, stake claims. China has a separate dispute with Japan in the East China Sea over uninhabited islets that are administered by Japan.

Chang asked the United States to “keep (Japan) within bounds and not to be permissive and supportive,” and railed against the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whom Hagel met in Tokyo last weekend.

“It is Japan who is being provocative against China,” Chang told a news conference after talks with Hagel.

“If you come to the conclusion that China is going to resort to force against Japan, that is wrong . . . we will not take the initiative to stir up troubles.”

Chang called the Philippines a nation “disguising itself as a victim” and renewed its opposition to Manila’s pursuit of international arbitration in its festering territorial dispute in the South China Sea.

Hagel, who met the defense minister from the Philippines last week, said he raised U.S. concerns in Beijing over the tension in the South and East China Sea in Beijing.

He cautioned that no countries should resort to “intimidation, coercion, or aggression to advance their claims.”

“The Philippines and Japan are longtime allies of the United States. We have mutual self defense treaties with each of those two countries,” Hagel said. “And we are fully committed to those treaty obligations.”

The U.S. State Department has accused China’s coast guard of harassment of Philippine vessels and called its recent attempt to block a Philippine resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed atoll, provocative and destabilizing.

Hagel’s visit to China came after a stop in Japan, where he called China a “great power” but urged it to use that power wisely.

The official English-language China Daily, in an editorial Tuesday, slammed those comments and accused Hagel of “emboldening countries in their bids to provoke China.”

“Although it professes not to take sides, the U.S. has again sent a message to those Asian countries which have territorial disputes with China that the U.S. will throw its weight behind them in their actions against China,” the state-run paper wrote.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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China fires shot across US bow ahead of Obama’s Asia trip
Hegelian Drama
BEIJING: In one of the many frank exchanges US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel had in China this week, General Fan Changlong told him how one of his uncles died as a slave in a Japanese mine during World War Two.Fan, deputy head of China’s powerful Central Military Commission, spoke about the lessons of history, signalling Beijing’s concerns that the United States was siding with Japan against China.Hagel replied by saying his own father had helped fight Japanese forces in World War Two.“The secretary made it very clear that we should be informed by history but not driven by it,” a US official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity to recount a conversation on Tuesday that he described as terse.
The exchange sums up the frustration in China over America’s role in Asia, where in the eyes of Beijing, Washington is increasingly supporting Japan as well as other countries over territorial disputes with China. The United States has said it is not taking sides but stands ready to defend its allies.China, some experts said, appeared to be getting anxious that recent tough talk from US officials over the disputed East and South China Seas could be a preview of what US President Barack Obama would say when he visits Asia this month.Dispensing with diplomatic protocol, China has made clear this week that it does not want Obama jumping in with both feet when he travels to Japan, the Philippines and Malaysia.While Beijing has territorial disputes with all three, its ties with Japan and the Philippines, both US allies, are in the deep freeze. Obama will also visit South Korea, with whom Beijing is enjoying warm relations.“Obama needs to pay serious consideration to this issue when he comes to Asia...China has already put this message across during the meetings with Hagel,” said Ruan Zongze, a former diplomat with the China Institute of International Studies in Beijing, a think tank linked to the Foreign Ministry.

The United States is moving in a direction we don’t want to see, taking sides with Japan and the Philippines, and China is extremely unhappy about this.”An Obama administration official acknowledged to reporters traveling with Hagel that the tone was sharper on issues surrounding the South and East China Seas than it had been on the last visit by a US defense secretary to China. That was when Hagel’s predecessor Leon Panetta visited in 2012.
“But in other areas the tone was actually improved,” the Obama administration official said, pointing to discussions on Sino-US military cooperation and even North Korea.On Tuesday, Chinese Defence Minister Chang Wanquan told Hagel that Washington should restrain Japan and chided the Philippines.Fan told Hagel outright that the “Chinese people are dissatisfied” with US support for Japan and Southeast Asia, according to a statement carried on the Chinese defence ministry’s website.The influential tabloid the Global Times, published by the Communist Party’s official People’s Daily, said in an editorial on Wednesday that such strong words “have not been seen much in the past”.China’s ties with Japan have long been poisoned by what Beijing sees as Tokyo’s failure to atone for its occupation of parts of China before and during World War Two. Japan’s repeated official apologies for wartime suffering are sometimes undercut by contradictory comments by conservative politicians.For its part, China has alarmed the region, and Washington, with its increasingly tough line on territorial disputes.It announced its biggest rise in military spending in three years last month, a signal from President Xi Jinping that China is not about to back away from its growing assertiveness.China’s military spending has allowed Beijing to create a modern force that is projecting power not only across the disputed waters of the East and South China Seas, but further into the western Pacific and Indian Oceans.
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India, China to hold strategic talks - Ananth Krishnan, The Hindu
India and China will hold the sixth round of their strategic dialogue in Beijing next week, discussing bilateral ties as well as expanding cooperation on common regional challenges such as the situation in Afghanistan.

With the strategic talks taking place amid the on-going Lok Sabha elections, expectations here are that the discussions will likely be routine and focus more on regional and international issues. Beijing, analysts said, is likely to adopt a cautious, wait-and-watch approach before pushing any new major diplomatic initiatives with India until the new government takes charge in New Delhi next month following the elections.

Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh will hold talks with Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin here on Monday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said. Ms. Singh is also expected to call on Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

“The two sides will have in-depth exchanges on bilateral relations, high-level exchanges, practical cooperation, and on international and regional issues of mutual concern,” spokesperson Hong Lei told reporters at a regular briefing.

“This dialogue is an important activity under the China-India friendly exchanges year. We believe it will enhance our strategic communication... and provide a strong boost... to our two countries.”

Mr. Hong said on Tuesday that China’s position on territorial disputes with India “was clear,” when asked about Wednesday’s Lok Sabha and State Assembly polls in Arunachal Pradesh, on which China has made territorial claims. China has in the past issued stapled visas to students and athletes from the State to underline its position that the territory was disputed.
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http://online.wsj.com/news/article_emai ... 010%202014
BEIJING—U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel wrapped up a three-day visit to China on Wednesday by urging President Xi Jinping to play a larger role in containing the dangers posed in the region by North Korea.The amicable meeting with Mr. Xi came in contrast to a series of pointed discussions the day before with top Chinese military officials, who criticized U.S. policy in the Asia-Pacific.
While Tuesday's military talks cast a pall over Mr. Hagel's first trip to China as defense secretary, U.S. officials characterized the trip as a modest success overall in bridging differences between the nations.Mr. Xi said deepening military ties between the two countries would help strengthen broader U.S.-China relations. "Your visit this time will definitely push forward the development of our new model of military-to-military relationship," he told Mr. Hagel at the start of their meeting in the Great Hall of the People.The Chinese leader also noted that Mr. Hagel had been provided with a "robust itinerary" during his visit, an apparent nod to the open access China granted Mr. Hagel to its lone aircraft carrier and military officers.Throughout the visit, Chinese officials prodded Mr. Hagel over U.S. support for Japan and the Philippines in tense territorial disputes with China. The U.S. defense secretary encouraged Chinese leaders to do more to restrain North Korea's destabilizing military tests in the region.

While the U.S. announced no breakthroughs over the North Korea issue or concerns about cybersecurity, U.S. officials praised China for granting Mr. Hagel a rare tour of its aircraft carrier, a step seen as a signal of China's willingness to be more open, albeit cautiously, with the U.S. The two countries also announced modest steps to deepen ties between their militaries, such as higher-level talks over divisive issues.American officials said the pointed, public criticism from Chinese military leaders was unfortunate but not unexpected. "You're dealing with a China that is still trying to find its way," one U.S. defense official said.While Mr. Hagel played down the differences, one of America's top military leaders warned that China's actions were creating a "witches' brew" for miscalculation. "I'm concerned by the aggressive growth of the Chinese military, their lack of transparency and a pattern of increasingly assertive behavior in the region," Adm. Harry B. Harris Jr. , commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, said on Wednesday at a naval conference in Canberra, Australia."There's both growing uncertainty in the region and increasing tensions—a witches' brew, if you will, for miscalculation," he said. "Our continued diplomacy in Asia amid these challenges underscores the importance of the United States remaining active and strong in the Indo-Asia-Pacific."
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Indian Ocean Watch - IDSA
China seeks strong foothold in the Indian Ocean through the Maritime Silk Route China made waves by taking two significant initiatives in somewhat quiet and unchartered waters of the Indian Ocean. First, it conducted naval exercises in Eastern parts of the Indian Ocean and secondly, it invited India to be a part of its Maritime Silk Route Initiative during the 17th Round of India–China Special Representatives (SR) Talks on border issues in New Delhi. The idea was originally proposed during the Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Indonesia in October 2013 when he invited Jakarta to join the initiative. Expressively, it aims at strengthening maritime connectivity among the partner countries by developing maritime infrastructure, but the details of the initiative are not yet known. India and Indonesia have interpreted and responded to these two initiatives differently. Indonesian responses have varied between being somewhat passive about the idea of a maritime silk route and permissive about allowing the Chinese navy to use its maritime passage. In India, these two initiatives have generated an intense debate with the discussion over the idea of the maritime silk route drawing attention and apprehension about Chinese naval exercises. Indian writing on the maritime silk route brought forth three different perspectives: first, China’s projection as a great maritime power; second, China’s attempt “to counter regional anxieties about its fast-expanding naval presence” and third, Beijing’s efforts to charm New Delhi. There has been no official response by the Indian government.
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Reviving the Maritime Silk Route - Rajiv Ranjan Chaturvedy, ISAS - The Hindu
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India to Join China Navy Exercise; Japan, US to keep out - Ananth Krishnan, The Hindu
India has decided to send the naval stealth frigate INS Shivalik to participate in an international fleet review and maritime exercise hosted by the Chinese Navy on April 23 — an exercise that has acquired particular diplomatic significance with the United States declining to join the review after Japan was excluded from the event.

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy is hosting the review and exercise in the northeastern port of Qingdao, the headquarters of its North Sea fleet, as it prepares to mark its 65th anniversary with great fanfare. Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to preside over the celebrations.

The international fleet review and exercises on April 23 and 24 have, however, acquired diplomatic colour after the PLA Navy declined to invite Japan.

At least 10 countries have so far confirmed their participation in the fleet review and exercise, including India, Australia, South Korea, New Zealand, Indonesia and Pakistan, according to a provisional list.

With India and Pakistan taking part, the review and exercise will also provide a rare instance of both countries jointly taking part in a naval exercise.

The fleet review and maritime exercise will take place along with the annual meeting of the Western Pacific Naval Symposium (WPNS) — a U.S.-established grouping of 20 countries, including Australia, Canada, Russia, Japan, South Korea and China, and three observers, India, Bangladesh and Mexico.

China invited Japan’s Navy chief to attend the WPNS, but the PLAN decided to exclude Japan from the international fleet review and exercise, to which a number of other countries were invited.

Japanese Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera said last week it was “unfortunate that China took such an approach,” with the moves following rising tensions over disputed East China Sea islands.

The U.S., which initially stayed clear of the dispute, has recently voiced backing for its ally Japan, with Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel calling on China to refrain from “intimidating” its neighbours, during his visit to Tokyo this week, which was followed by a trip to Beijing.

By pulling out of the fleet review and exercise, the U.S. has signalled its support to Japan, although both countries will attend the WPNS.
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Chinese media assesses Modi, Rahul and Bilateral Ties - Ananth krishnan, The Hindu
The media in China, which has been carefully following the ongoing elections in India, has appeared divided in its assessment of whether or not the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls will impact India-China relations.

Media outlets here have devoted most attention to the prospects of Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, but from the perspective of how either leader might influence diplomacy with China.

“If Rahul Gandhi gets elected, it’s very likely that he will follow the current China policy of the Congress Party. As with Modi who is famous for ‘development’, we can expect more economic interactions between India and China. What’s more, as a pragmatic and assertive political leader, it’s possible that Modi will bring his style into the Sino-India relationship,” wrote the Reference News .

Interestingly, the article also asked how an Arvind Kejriwal-led government might approach foreign policy. “For Kejriwal, as he is focusing on anti-corruption and people’s livelihood, and has no complete foreign policy agenda, it is a feasible option for him to continue the current policy towards China,” said the commentary.

No great impact

The article concluded that the outcome of elections would not have any “great impact” on ties: “No matter who gets elected,… [t]here is a great chance that the three top candidates will continue with the current friendly attitude…,” it concluded.

The China Review News had a different view, expressing the concern that elections could strain ties. “Bilateral ties can be the victim of party politics in India”, it said.

China ‘expansionist’?

On Mr. Modi’s comments in Arunachal Pradesh that China was “expansionist”, the article said “his action can be considered as a signal of showing his strong foreign policy stand to the voters”, adding that “we must be cautious that some politicians use China as a controversial issue in the election”.

Tang Lu, the author of the Xinhua commentary, in an interview with The Hindu suggested that a “strong leader” in New Delhi could, on the other hand, push forward ties with China on deadlocked issues more decisively.
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SSridhar wrote:Chinese media assesses Modi, Rahul and Bilateral Ties - Ananth krishnan, The Hindu
The media in China, which has been carefully following the ongoing elections in India, has appeared divided in its assessment of whether or not the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls will impact India-China relations.

Media outlets here have devoted most attention to the prospects of Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, but from the perspective of how either leader might influence diplomacy with China.

Tang Lu, the author of the Xinhua commentary, in an interview with The Hindu suggested that a “strong leader” in New Delhi could, on the other hand, push forward ties with China on deadlocked issues more decisively.
Why are China worried about the election for Indian external relations. Indian people will remain the same inside India and will still remember PRC assistance to Pak with missile and n weapons.
India;s relations with China is based on Tibet and What PRC does with Pak which has not changed over the last 40 years.
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Foreign Secretary to test Beijing waters before new govt checks in - Saibal Dasgupta, ToI
Foreign secretary Sujatha Singh will engage Chinese officials in a strategic dialogue here for two days beginning Monday. The meeting is considered important as it takes place just over a month ahead of a new government in New Delhi after the declaration of election results on May16.

Chinese experts have indicated they do not expect major changes in India's policies towards China, regardless of the party that takes over the reins in New Delhi. But neither side is likely to agree on any new initiatives at this juncture because the attitude of the next government towards China is not known, sources said.

Singh is expected to call on Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi. But the bulk of talks between Indian officials, including Singh and ambassador Ashok Kantha, will be held with Chinese vice foreign minister Liu Zhenmin.

The foreign secretary's mission is to get a firsthand impression of China's attitude towards India at this point in order to brief the new government, which is expected to take office in the coming weeks, sources said.

China is particularly worried that its major rival, Japan, would manage to sway India's foreign policy in favour of Tokyo using its ability to provide funds and technology. New Delhi's concern is about Beijing's growing ability to create difficulties in South Asia by providing arms and nuclear support to Pakistan and influencing decision making in Nepal, Myanmar and Sri Lanka.

"To begin with, owing to Washington's "pivot to Asia" strategy and Tokyo's lurch to the far right, China is confronted with growing pressure along its eastern coast. India is also facing a complicated environment in South Asia," Lan Jianxue, an expert with the State-run China Institute of International Studies, said in an article.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said last week that the two sides will have deep exchanges on bilateral ties, high-level exchanges, practical cooperation, international and regional issues of mutual concern.

"This dialogue is an important activity under the China-India friendly exchanges of the year 2014. We believe it will enhance our strategic communication, friendly exchanges and practical cooperation and provide a strong boost to stable and sound relationship between the two countries," Hong said.
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China drills 7km borehole in 'roof of world' in oil and gas hunt
Chinese exploration teams have drilled their deepest borehole yet in the "roof of the world".

They have punched a seven-kilometre borehole into the Tibetan Plateau in their bid to tap the region's oil and natural gas resources.

It is the deepest borehole ever drilled at such extreme altitudes, according to mainland scientists who are following the project.

Tibet's remoteness, thin air and lack of infrastructure have so far saved it from the unchecked exploration and extraction of fossil fuels and minerals elsewhere in the country.

But the government wants to lessen the country's dependence on oil imports and is funding domestic scientific research to the hilt.

The latest project is shrouded in secrecy. Professor Li Haibing, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, would not reveal the project's location and declined to identify which state-owned oil companies were active in the region.


But Li, who led one of the largest scientific drilling projects in Tibet, said: "Tibet's altitude and geology make it among the world's most difficult drilling locations. Fragmented [geological] structures, prone to collapse, increase the risks."

Li, who works for the academy's Institute of Geology, also noted that "oxygen scarcity at higher elevations drains workers' energy considerably".

China has been keeping a low profile about its exploration of resources in Tibet due to the sensitivity of the region, which has seen growing political and religious strife.

The two largest state-owned oil and gas companies, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), did not respond to the South China Morning Post's queries on projects in Tibet.

But information on their websites indicate that both firms have had footprints in the region for nearly 20 years. CNPC began exploring the Qiangtang Basin in central Tibet in 1995 and subsequently estimated the basin's oil reserves at 10 billion tonnes, or more than 70 billion barrels.

In 1997, Sinopec established its first exploration centre in Nagqu county, with the aim of mapping the surrounding area with detailed seismic surveys and experimental drilling.

Li said the central government was reviewing a proposal for a new "deep-earth" exploration project "submitted by the nation's most prominent geologists" to drill wells more than 10 kilometres deep to obtain study samples, with Tibet an area of the greatest interest.

Last August, the China Geological Survey, under the Ministry of Land and Resources, signed a 20 million yuan (HK$25.1 million) exploration agreement with Sinopec after the Tibet region showed "enormous oil and natural gas potential", according to the ministry's website.

The discovery of commercially viable flows of oil and natural gas in Tibet has the potential to develop the region's economy. Tibet has one of the lowest gross national products among China's administrative regions. {What will happen to the Tibetans if indeed the Chinese find billions of barrels of oil there?}

Professor Wei Wenbo, a geologist with the China University of Geosciences and an expert on Tibetan geological conditions, said scientists continue to debate Tibet's oil and gas potential.

It is hoped that samples from the seven-kilometre borehole will clarify some of the questions about the region's hydrocarbon and mineral resources. {I find it hard to believe that they started exploring 20 years ago and hope to find answers only now from this particular borehole.}

Wei said: "It is one of the last virgin territories for natural resource exploration on the planet, drawing interest from miners and drillers at home and abroad."

The world's deepest borehole - the Kola Superdeep Borehole in northwestern Russia at 12,262 metres - was drilled by the former Soviet Union in the late 1980s.

Wei warned against a rush to exploit Tibet's rich mineral veins.

"Exploration and extraction of minerals and hydrocarbons in Tibet will require massive capital expenditure," he said, noting that infrastructural construction and drilling at such high altitudes drives up labour and logistics costs.

Wei said mining projects had the potential to irreversibly mar Tibet's fragile ecosystems. "Environmental impact studies must be undertaken and risks assessed before commercial projects are approved," he added. {Haven't they been mining and building dams there since quite some time?}
Hope this is the right place to post this news.
Looks like China has firmly set its eyes on exploiting the natural wealth of Tibet now.
Does anyone have pointers to studies done or articles (either on BRF or elsewhere) on the non-military activities that China is conducting in Tibet like exploiting natural resources, constructing dams etc?
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It would be a surprise if the Chinese did not exploit and plunder the natural resources of any land. They are so good at devastatingly denuding foreign lands. The MSR (Maritime Silk Route), apart from its strategic, military and economic angles, is also to help the Chinese vigorously loot other countries. It is surprising that the Chinese waited so long to hunt for oil or other things in Tibet. They started with its waters first.
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India assures China that there is 'Broad Consensus' in India on engaging China - The Hindu
India on Monday assured China that there was “broad consensus” across the political spectrum on engaging with Beijing, as both sides held talks laying the groundwork for a series of high-level engagements set to take place in an election year.
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No accord on consulate in Lhasa - Ananth krishnan, The Hindu
India and China on Monday continued long-running discussions on the possibility of opening new consulates to expand diplomatic contact as they held the sixth round of their strategic dialogue here, but have not reached agreement amid persisting Chinese reservations on India opening a consulate in Lhasa, Tibet.

Despite India’s long-pending interest in Lhasa, China has clarified that it will not allow any additional foreign diplomatic presence in Tibet. Only Nepal has diplomatic presence in Lhasa, while U.S. requests were denied.

Asked if Lhasa was discussed on Monday, Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh said, “We have certain places in mind, but we are certainly not going to talk about it before it is finalised.”

Sources, however, suggested that India was increasingly inclined to accepting China’s reservations — at least for now — by putting on hold its request for Lhasa and considering opening up a presence either in Chengdu in southwestern Sichuan province, which borders Tibet and is also an increasingly thriving hub of information technology, or in Kunming in south-western Yunnan province.
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Abe cites 1959 court ruling to justify exercise of 'collective defence' - Japan Times
A decades-old Supreme Court ruling, interpreted as allowing Japan to defend allies as part of self-defense, may be used to justify Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s move to lift a self-imposed ban on exercising the right to collective self-defense, government sources said Tuesday.

One of the options is to cite a supplementary opinion by former Chief Justice Kotaro Tanaka, who said in 1959 that Japan had the obligation to defend other countries, and argue that Japan can now exercise the right to collective self-defense, the sources said.

The government is considering including Tanaka’s supplementary opinion in its basic stance to be announced before it seeks Cabinet approval to enable Japan to defend allies under armed attack.

The move is regarded as the government’s latest effort to win the support of New Komeito, the junior coalition partner of the Liberal Democratic Party. New Komeito has said the ruling did not take into account the concept of collective self-defense.

In a trial widely known as the Sunagawa case, the Supreme Court ruled in 1959 that the presence of U.S. forces did not go against Article 9 of the pacifist Constitution, and they were not considered Japanese military power.

“For a country to cooperate with other countries in defense is equal to protecting its own country. Each country has its own obligations to fulfill even if they (the obligations) are for self-defense or defense cooperation with other countries,” Tanaka said.

Prime Minster Abe and his fellow LDP lawmakers have used the ruling as a rationale to argue that Japan is allowed to exercise the right to collective self-defense under limited conditions, although New Komeito remains cautious.

A supplementary opinion is often provided by the court to explain why it has decided to give a certain ruling in an important case.

Together with New Komeito, opposition party lawmakers and experts have countered the LDP’s argument, saying the ruling was handed down in 1959 when the concept of collective self-defense was vague. They say the ruling covered self-defense, not collective self-defense.

As part of his broader reworking of Japan’s security policy, Abe has said his government will make a final decision on whether Japan should engage in collective self-defense operations after receiving a report as early as in May by a panel of experts endorsed by him to discuss the issue.


The government is expected to present its basic stance based on the report, and seek support from the ruling bloc. Cabinet approval to change the constitutional interpretation is expected after this summer.
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China Maritime Silk Road Plan to Push Indian Ocean Ports, Trace zones - Business Line
China’s new initiative to build a “maritime silk road” to boost connectivity between the Asia-Pacific region and the Indian Ocean will prioritise building ports and improving infrastructure in littoral countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, according to official reports.

China is also keen to establish free trade zones to boost its economic presence in Indian Ocean countries under the umbrella of the plan – a move that will reinforce China’s deepening economic presence in the Indian Ocean Region and in India’s neighbourhood.

Since the silk road plan was unveiled last year when President Xi Jinping travelled to South-East Asia, Chinese officials have highlighted the initiative as a key diplomatic priority for the government.

Nations ranging from Malaysia and Singapore to India, Sri Lanka and the Gulf countries have all been sounded out about the initiative. It has, however, remained unclear what the plan would actually entail. Officials are yet to detail specifics, beyond describing objectives as boosting maritime connectivity.

In the first official details about the plan, a State media report on Thursday said a “priority” for the initiative was “port construction” and free trade zones. “The plan is expected to focus on infrastructure construction of countries along the route, including ports of Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh,” the official Xinhua news agency quoted the China Securities Journal as saying.

China is already involved in port projects in the three countries, in Gwadar, Hambantota and Chittagong.

China hopes to “coordinate customs, quality supervision, e-commerce and other agencies to facilitate the scheme”, as well as set up free trade zones, the report said.

China’s southern provinces of Yunnan – which borders Myanmar and is at the centre of another economic plan to build a Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) corridor – and Guangxi Zhuang may be tasked with pushing the plan.

The initiative was first proposed by Xi when he visited South-East Asia in October last year. The plan was reinforced by Premier Li Keqiang, who also visited Asean countries last year and announced the setting up of a 3 billion Yuan (around $500 million) maritime cooperation fund.

The initiative, which will deepen Chinese economic and maritime links with both South-East Asia and Indian Ocean Region (IOR) countries, is being seen by some analysts as attempting to reframe regional anxieties about China’s growing military and naval presence amid a number of disputes.

Zhou Bo, a strategic scholar at the Academy of Military Science, said in a recent article the “maritime silk road” may be a response to the “string of pearls” theory – a suggestion that China intended to build military bases in littoral countries, from Sri Lanka to Pakistan and Bangladesh.
This project is not only to increase manifold the Chinese sway in the IOR but also to undermine India's influence in its very backyard. This project serves a dual purpose for China, exploiting the resources of the IOR countries and undercutting Indian influence.
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