Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

[Arihant]

The perils of standing up for democracy...

Pro-Democracy Hong Kong Media Mogul Targeted by Firebombing

[Samudragupta]

In the words of former president of India Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam, “The Moon contains 10 times more energy in the form of helium-3 than all the fossil fuels on the earth.”

http://thediplomat.com/2015/01/china-le ... -the-moon/

States are quietly preparing to secure fuel for the fourth generation of nuclear weapons, and China is winning.

In October 2014, China’s Chang’e 5-T1 lunar probe, known as Xiaofei or Little Flyer, successfully completed an orbit around the Moon. This was the first time that a trip around the Moon and back of this sort had been made since the USA and Russian trips in the 1970s. The Little flyer is a precursor to Chang’e 5 which will bring back lunar soil (regolith) containing the nuclear fuel helium-3 that can be used for baseload energy production and the next generation of nuclear weapons.

The Little Flyer mission lasted eight days and its primary objective was to conduct atmospheric re-entry tests on the Chang’e 5 capsule design which will be launched by 2017. The destination on the lunar surface for Chang’e 5, like that of the Yutu Jade Rabbit rover, is the Mare Imbrium also known as the Sea of Rains, one of the vast lunar crater seas visible from Earth and a known repository of high concentrations of helium-3. This now puts China strongly in the lead in the secret space race between states to secure helium-3, which has one of the highest known energy return on investment ratios while also being a fourth-generation nuclear weapons fuel.

In the words of former president of India Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam, “The Moon contains 10 times more energy in the form of helium-3 than all the fossil fuels on the earth.”

To put this into perspective one ton of helium-3 can produce 10,000 megawatt years of electricity. This is enough energy to power 80 percent of Tokyo’s energy needs for a whole year, or a city of 7.3 million people like Hong Kong, Hyderabad or Singapore. This much energy is comparable to 315 petajoules released in a nuclear weapon explosion.

Compare this to the largest nuclear weapon explosion on record, the 1962 test of the Russia Tsar Bomba, which released 210-240 petajoules. The bomb had a 50-58 megaton destructive capacity, equivalent to 1,350 times the combined power of the bombs that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki and ten times the combined power of all the conventional explosives used in World War II. The detonation left behind a zone of total destruction with a radius of 35 km and produced a mushroom cloud 64 km high. The explosion was so powerful that it registered 8.1 on the Richter scale, shattering windows more than 900 km away and sending seismic shockwaves around the Earth three times. It was the largest ever nuclear explosion.

One ton of helium-3 has the potential to produce 1.5 times more destructive power than the Tsar Bomba. In other words, the potential to make a nuclear weapon with a 75 megaton yield.

Fusion is often criticized as being always thirty years away, unworkable, or not possible. In fact, fusion is a very real and workable technology and has been with us since the Ivy Mike hydrogen bomb detonation in 1952. The internal dynamic of a thermonuclear explosion is fusion. Man-made fusion is an essential process of the chain reactions of all thermonuclear weapons held by states today and of course every star in the universe works from fusion.

The energy released by the Tsar Bomba was 97 percent derived from fusion so it produced very little radioactive fallout and was considered the cleanest nuclear explosion.

Thermonuclear weapons use deuterium and tritium, which just happens to be the fuel used by the ITER fusion energy production experiment in France, the harmful radiation from which is twice as damaging to human health as a standard nuclear fission reactor. Helium-3 exists on Earth principally as a by-product of tritium nuclear warhead decay from the U.S. and Russian nuclear stockpiles, totalling around 600 kg, with another 100 kg found in nature. However, vast quantities of Helium-3 exist up to six meters deep in the lunar soil.

When fused with itself, helium-3 is attractive as a nuclear fuel for energy generation because it does not emit harmful radioactive neutrons. A 1,000 MW nuclear power station using only helium-3 as a fuel would produce no radiation. Likewise, pure helium-3 fourth-generation nuclear weapons would produce minimal or no radioactive fallout thus challenging the taboo on the use of nuclear weapons and their status as unconventional weapons.

Helium-3 weapons are more likely to be tactical in nature, small enough to be used in battlefields, allowing for armies to occupy a territory soon after detonation without concern for high levels of radiation. However, governments willing to forego the energy generation value of a ton of helium-3 could build a Brahmastra-style strategic weapon with a yield larger than the Tsar Bomba.

With no radioactive fallout a helium-3 nuclear missile could be suitable for destroying asteroids. In 2013, NASA estimated there was more than 1,400 potentially hazardous asteroids threatening Earth.

Much has been written about the value of helium-3 for non-radiation producing energy production and states around the world are quietly positioning themselves to secure it from the Moon. In fact, most national space programs citing Mars as the primary objective conveniently include the Moon as a stepping stone, including NASA’s Space Launch System with its 130 tons payload capacity, which will be the biggest heavy lift rocket ever built. If one state secures helium-3 exclusively, then it will become the new global hegemon.

China is very close to a breakthrough in energy production from helium-3 and the goals of its space program inspired by the visionary Professor Ouyang Ziyuan are closely, if not directly, related to securing helium-3 as a geostrategic national priority. Several other stakeholders are also working on duel use applications of helium-3 and other fusion fuels.

It is widely considered by governments that the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the Non Proliferation Treaty do not ban confinement fusion research, largely because at the time of the treaty negotiations the size of the machines required for fusion research could not possibly fit inside deployable nuclear missiles. With helium-3, weapons would be much easier to build in secret as they would be invisible to radiation sensing equipment such as the neutron detectors installed in ports around the world.

Deuterium and tritium are the standard fuels used for fusion energy research around the world as well as being the standard primary fuels in thermonuclear weapons.

In October 2014, Lockheed Martin Skunkworks announced that is is working on Magnetic Confinement Fusion in compact fusion reactors for “jet engine sized” propulsion for spacecraft. In 2011, a sustained fusion reaction of pure helium-3 was achieved in the United States, in an inertial electrostatic confinement device the size of a basketball.

Governments should now consider the implications of all of this research for the creation of fourth-generation nuclear weapons, as research into fusion shares the same principles as that for fusion weapons.

Magnetic Confinement Fusion research being done at the HT-7 Tokamak facility in the city of Hefei, China, the KSTAR National Fusion Research Institute in Daejon, South Korea, and the Z Pinch Machine at Sandia National Laboratories in the United States, as well as inertial confinement fusion research with lasers, such as those at the National Ignition Facility in the USA, the Laser Mégajoule in France, or the planned ISKRA-6 at the Russian Federal Nuclear Center, all have the potential for weapons research. So do particle beam accelerators, such as those used by CERN in the EU and KEK in Japan.

When fused with deuterium, helium-3 can produce 18.4 MeV of energy, a scale of energy familiar to scientists working with particle accelerators. Helium-3 fused with deuterium offers the potential for spaceships powered by fusion propulsion to reach Mars in fewer than 100 days, Jupiter or the Sun in only 200 days, and Titan in three to four years. Helium-3 with deuterium propulsion could also enable interstellar travel, with the nearest star accessible in less than 100 years.

To extract helium-3 is a relatively simple surface mining operation that would require sifting through the lunar soil up to six meters deep and then heating it to separate out the helium-3 gas. The technology to extract, compress and return it to Earth already exists in the mining, gas and space industries and the nuclear industry has the capability to build the power stations.

China’s Chang’e 5 rover will build on the work of the Chang’e 3 Yutu rover and will be equipped with a lunar mineral spectrometer and lunar soil gas analytical instruments, in addition to a drilling rig. The rover will drill two meters deep into the lunar surface with the aim of returning two kilograms of lunar soil samples to Earth to analyze concentrations of helium-3. This will be the shot across the bow for the rest of the world.

Helium-3 is the most valuable resource on the Moon. The other known lunar resources include titanium, nickel, the platinum group of metals, aluminum, silicon, uranium, thorium, phosphorous, diamonds, water, and rare earth elements. All of these have been mapped and analyzed by China, India, Japan, and the U.S. over recent years.

The energy potential from helium-3 is significant enough for all major spacefaring nations to be racing to secure it from the lunar surface, no doubt leading to a new rush to claim territory and strip mine sections of the Moon in the style of the “Scramble for Africa.” Some have called for a legal regime for the sharing of lunar resources, which according to the 1967 Outer Space Treaty are the “common heritage of all mankind.” But this might discourage the investment needed to develop these resources. It may be more appropriate that the ancient laws of salvage and the Lockean proviso of performing work on these extraterrestrial resources apply provided that, “… there is enough, and as good, left in common for others.” Meaning that the moved resources may be fairly owned and traded, but lunar territory must remain common land.

It was not science or an endeavor to aid the common heritage of mankind that led to the initial establishment of trade routes and settlements across the world. It was the human desire for profit and prosperity. The same motivation will drive prospecting for helium-3 and the other resources on the Moon, asteroids and beyond. So, “Drill, baby, drill!”

[SSridhar]

From NightWatch for the night of 12 January 2015

China: Chinese police shot and killed six would-be bombers Monday in Shule in the Xinjiang region in northwestern China.

Police were called to a business district in the town of Shule in the morning to investigate a suspicious man carrying what appeared to be an explosive device. When he attempted to detonate his explosives, the police shot the man and five others who also attempted to detonate explosives.

Comment: This is the first reported attack by Uighur separatists in 2015. The Chinese appear to have been tipped off by local residents, which might suggest they have improved their local intelligence. They appear to have improved reaction time. Only the would-be bombers died. How these men obtained explosives and from whom remain unanswered questions.

Shule is south west of Kashgar and closer to the Wakhan Corridor amd the Khunjerab Pass.

[vijaykarthik]

I also saw through SCMP that China and Japan are trying to improve their signaling, coordination and agreement and emergency handling [through establishing the hotline]. Names and roles etc being discussed and they might come up with a comprehensive mitigation plan to ensure accidents don't happen in ECS.

Looks like China asked for conformance and agreements for both air and naval assets in ECS while Japan said naval assets should do for now. Wonder why that's so, though. Queer.

[Samudragupta]

I also saw through SCMP that China and Japan are trying to improve their signaling, coordination and agreement and emergency handling [through establishing the hotline]. Names and roles etc being discussed and they might come up with a comprehensive mitigation plan to ensure accidents don't happen in ECS.

Looks like China asked for conformance and agreements for both air and naval assets in ECS while Japan said naval assets should do for now. Wonder why that's so, though. Queer.

China and Japan does not want to wage war with each other... simple

[pankajs]

This could just be smoke screen.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 868643.cms
China should have trilateral cooperation with neighbours: Analysts

Chinese government should take a re-look at neighbourhood diplomacy specially in the backdrop of what is happening in Myanmar, once a close ally of Beijing, and call for trilateral cooperation with India to reduce frictions, an official think tank said today.

"In diplomatic terms, Myanmar is striving to promote neutrality in its foreign policy, in part to hedge against a rising China," Bi Shihong professor at the School of International Studies at China's Yunnan University wrote in an article titled 'Sino-Myanmar ties unshaken by India moves' in state-run Global Times.

The write-up highlighted strategic inroads made by India after the fall of the pro-China military junta in 2011.

"How to handle relations with Myanmar and India, as a result, has become a serious challenge for Beijing's peripheral diplomacy and global strategy," the article said.

Recalling Prime Minister Narendra Modi's last year visit to Nay Pyi Taw and New Delhi's moves to step up strategic cooperation with a new highway between the two countries, the article said Modi has turned India's old "Look East" strategy into the current "Act East" policy during his attendance at last year's 25th ASEAN Summit.

"As New Delhi sees Beijing as a potential threat, it aims at counterbalancing the Asian powerhouse and gaining strategic advantage by promoting close bonds with Nay Pyi Taw," it said.

The article said China-Myanmar friendship will not be much affected by India's "aggressive" eastward strategy.

"In the process of deepening cooperation with Myanmar, China should not merely ensure that both sides will benefit, but also take into account the feelings of neighbouring countries, including India, by creating opportunities for trilateral cooperation," it said.

The article is one of few in the state media calling for a rethink of China's policy in the neighbourhood investing in individual leaders and institutions without taking into account future consequences.

Bi Shihong argued that Myanmar is sober-minded about its precarious location between the dragon and the elephant, so it's keen on using this geopolitical advantage to gain maximum interests while maintaining its own independency. It longs to garner a share of India's market to ramp up its economy."

"Myanmar is an important partner to help safeguard China's southwestern region as well as a major passage linking China and the Indian Ocean", it said.

"India's cooperation with China in Southeast Asia, including Myanmar, is helpful in displaying its image as a great power and seeking win-win outcomes, while confrontation will help no one," it said.

[SSridhar]

China slams Philippines for criticizing island project in South China Sea - Japan Times

China on Monday hit back at the Philippines for criticizing Beijing’s ongoing reclamation project in the South China Sea, saying its actions are within the scope of Chinese sovereignty.

China lays claim to almost all of the entire South China Sea, believed to be rich with minerals and oil and gas deposits. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan also have claims.

The United States has called on China to stop the land reclamation project that could be large enough to accommodate an airstrip. Beijing has called those remarks “irresponsible,” signaling that it would firmly reject proposals by any country to freeze any activity that may raise tension.

Last week, Philippines Gen. Gregorio Catapang told reporters that China’s reclamation in the area is “50 percent complete.”
“It is alarming in the sense that it could be used for other purposes other than for peaceful means,” he said.

China reiterated that Beijing had “indisputable sovereignty” over the Spratly Islands, where most of the overlapping claims lie, especially between China and the Philippines.

“China’s actions on the relevant islands and reefs are all matters within the scope of China’s sovereignty,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei told a daily news briefing.

Aerial images from the Philippines military and a leading U.S. defense publication show China is developing an airstrip on one of the islands.

The construction has stoked concern that China may be converting disputed territory in the archipelago into military installations.

[Philip]

The Chinese "War" has already begun.It is winning the war ,extending its territorial boundaries by exporting its manpower to various key nations across the globe. New "Chinatowns" are being built to house tens of thousands of Chinese in enclaves that will be in all effect Chinese intel/mil outposts.It is a well-known fact that world over Chines enclaves in major cities are dominated by the triads and local police have little authority over the Chinese,whose cooperation is virtually nil.Every suich CXhginatown must be viewed as an intel "nest of vipers".

[Tuvaluan]

No trilateral cooperation with the Chinese till they get out of PoK and stop providing support to the Pakis, and stop claiming Arunachal Pradesh. The chinese need to know where the line is drawn -- if they want to fight for space in Myanmar, they are going to have to compete without expecting India to cooperate.

[Prem]

Abe in Tel Aviv today , mainly to prevent israel from supplying weapons/ tech to PRC .

[SSridhar]

From NightWatch for the night of Jan 14, 2015

China: State press announced a ban on burqas in public places in Xinjiang region, where the Uighur population resides. The Most Uighurs are Muslims. Explaining the new ban, Xinhua said: "The regulation is seen as an effort to curb growing extremism that forced Uighur women to abandon their colorful traditional dress and wear black burqas."

"Burqas are not traditional dress for Uygur women, and wearing them in public places is banned in countries such as Belgium and France."

Comment: Chinese authorities also have banned long beards on men and fasting during Ramadan. They also maintain strict controls of mosques.

The Chinese have a prophylactic approach to controlling Islamic and other terrorism. They understand that wearing burqas and long beards are political acts of defiance as well as religious statements. Thus, the Chinese have chosen to ban and treat harshly the minor public acts of defiance as political crimes, while allowing the private practice of religion, for now.

This is a variation of "broken windows" policing. It also borders on being reverse terror. It is not completely effective, but the Chinese have not begun to exhaust the tactics in the communist repertoire for suppressing dissidence. Thus far, they appear to be trying to be civil in suppressing Uighur terrorism

[deejay]

No trilateral cooperation with the Chinese till they get out of PoK and stop providing support to the Pakis, and stop claiming Arunachal Pradesh. The chinese need to know where the line is drawn -- if they want to fight for space in Myanmar, they are going to have to compete without expecting India to cooperate.

Agree and an important point on all discussions with the Chinese.

[SSridhar]

Japan approves record defence budget - The Hindu

Japan approved its largest-ever defence budget for the next fiscal year on Wednesday, as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe looks to strengthen surveillance of territorial waters in the face of a continuing spat with China.

For the year to March 2016, Tokyo will spend 4.98 trillion yen ($41.97 billion), the government said, rising for the third straight year. “This is the largest budget ever,” said a defence ministry official, adding the highest allocation previously was 4.96 trillion yen earmarked in 2002.

The trend reflects Mr. Abe’s wish to build a more active military, with an eye on a possible escalation of tensions with China. — AFP

[member_19686]

Taiwan looks for more business partnerships with India
Press Trust of India | New Delhi January 13, 2015 Last Updated at 17:35 IST

Taiwan is looking for partnerships with India in various sectors, including electronics, renewable energy, medical devices and automobiles to expand bilateral trade volume.

Industry bodies for shipping, textiles and electronics from Taiwan today signed three separate agreements with their respective Indian counterparts to enhance co-operation between the two countries.

"We are now just focussing on these sectors to start our relationship with. Later, we hope to further this initiative by diversifying into renewable energy, medical devices, auto among others," Taiwan's Deputy Minister for Economic Affairs, Shih-Chao Cho told reporters here.

Expressing confidence that more such collaborations will follow, he said: "This is just a stepping stone for fostering our relationship between the two countries."

Taiwan Shipbuilding Industry Association (TSIA), Taiwan Textile Federation (TTF) and Taiwan Electrical and Electronic Manufacturers Association signed three MoUs with Shipyards Association of India (SAI), Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI) and Electric Lamp and Component Manufacturers' Association (Elcoma) respectively.

The Taiwanese industrial bodies had also signed three MoUs with associations in Gujarat as a part of the Vibrant Gujarat Summit.

Cho also said Taiwan is looking for opportunities to partner Indian firms in the field of original brand manufacturing (OBM).

"We have a huge capability for manufacturing and India has good local brands and marketing potentials for its huge markets, we are definitely looking forward for something in this," he said.

Lauding Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'Make In India' and 'Digital India' initiative, Cho said, "We can feel the determination of the Indian government to liberalise and de-regulate to bring in investments. This is a very good direction."

India and Taiwan's bilateral trade stood at USD 6 billion in 2013-14 fiscal compared to USD 7 billion in the previous fiscal.

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... sY.twitter

Japan lobbied for Taiwan to keep U.N. seat in 1971: declassified documents

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/0 ... LiebivF_7N

[member_19686]

Thailand to start railway project with China in September
(CRI Online) 11:24, January 16, 2015

Thailand's Transport Ministry says the country is working with Chinese experts to build the Thailand's first standard-gauge railways.
Two new rail lines, with a total length of more than 800 km, will connect northeast Thailand's Nong Khai province, Bangkok and eastern Rayong province.
The entire project is divided into four sections.
Work on the first two sections will start in September and conclude in December 2017, while construction on the other two sections is expected to begin in December and finish in March 2018.
Thai and Chinese officials will start the first round of talks on details of the plan, and other issues, next week.

http://en.people.cn/n/2015/0116/c90777-8837202.html

[SSridhar]

India looks to firm up military ties with Vietnam - Sachin Parashar, Economic Times

India and Vietnam will look to further cement military ties with another round of strategic defence talks later this week. Government sources in New Delhi said Vietnam defence minister Phung Quang Thanh will pay a rare visit to India later this week to chair the defence dialogue along with his counterpart Manohar Parrikar.

The Vietnamese defence minister is also one of the seniormost members of the Communist Party of Vietnam. This will be Vietnam's first strategic defence dialogue with the Narendra Modi government, which is overtly seeking to expand military cooperation with the country locked in a territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea. PM Modi had himself declared earlier that India is committed to the modernization of Vietnam's military and security forces.

The visit is significant because the strategic defence talks until now have been chaired by defence secretaries from the Indian side and deputy defence ministers from Vietnam.

India had last year announced a $100 million concessional line of credit for defence procurement. During the visit of Vietnam PM Nguyen Tan Dung in October last year, Modi had said that the two countries would move quickly to operationalize the channel so as to enable Vietnam to acquire new naval vessels from India. Vietnam is looking to use these vessels as a deterrent against China in the Spratly islands region in the South China Sea.

Despite warnings from China, ONGC Videsh and PetroVietnam signed an agreement last year for exploration of new oil and gas projects in Vietnam. The Vietnamese PM welcomed participation of Indian firms in exploring new opportunities in midstream and downstream activities in the country's oil and gas sector.

There are a slew of other things to be also discussed though one can expect the OPVs to be of the highest priority. Issues such as the sale of BrahMos, setting up of a satellite tracking, data processing and reception facility, launching of a Vietnamese satellite, enhanced training on Russian military equipment including submarines could be some other important points.

[SSridhar]

From NightWatch for the night of January 18, 2015

China-North Korea: On 16 January the China Defense News reported that China will use citizen militias to help patrol the border with North Korea. The government said it made the move because the situation is complicated and relying on just one force would make it difficult to achieve effective control. The newspaper also said that the government is "guiding" the establishment of the militia patrols.

Comment: The move appears to be a reaction to the killings of four Chinese citizens in late December by a deserter from the North Korean army. The Chinese acknowledged the incident in the first week of January when they formally protested it to North Korea.

The news accounts lack details about the number of militia groups; their chain of command; whether they will be armed and what authority they will have. This measure would seem to be an overreaction to a single incident. It means there are many more incidents than have received press coverage. Chinese officials blame North Korea for not controlling its side of the border and are determined to seal the Chinese side. The formation of citizen militias implies that border security has deteriorated.

[SSridhar]

China Reacts Vehemently to Japan's Remark on Arunachal Pradesh - New Indian Express

China today reacted sharply to Japanese Foreign Minister's remarks about Arunachal Pradesh being part of India, saying it is "seriously concerned" and has lodged a protest with Japan demanding a clarification.

"China has taken note of such report," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei told a media briefing here while replying to a question on Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida's comments in New Delhi last week.

"We are seriously concerned about this and have lodged solemn representation (diplomatic protest) with the Japanese side, asking Japan to make (a) clarification and immediately remove negative implications arising from this," Hong said.

Replying to a question during an interaction in New Delhi on January 17 about Japan's indication that it may not be involved in infrastructure projects in Arunachal Pradesh and whether this was due to China's position, Kishida had said though his government wants to improve connectivity in northeast India, there was no plan to provide any aid to the state.

"You specifically pointed out the state Arunachal Pradesh in North Eastern India which is a territory of India which is pending in terms of its dispute with China and for the moment to my understanding there are currently no plans of Japan to provide aid to this state," he had said. China claims Arunachal Pradesh as part of Southern Tibet.

Hong said Kishida's remarks are contrary to previous stand taken by Japan on this issue in the past.

"Japan has said explicitly to China that it holds no position and it will not intervene in the disputed area between China and India. Japan has also made public clarifications on this," he said apparently referring to Japan's stand expressed in November last year that it would not involve itself in infrastructure projects in Arunachal Pradesh.

China said in November last year that Japan had clarified when it sought Tokyo's reaction to reports that India's Border Roads Organisation had given 'strategic' projects to the Japan International Cooperation Agency along the China border.

Hong today said, "China's position on the eastern part of China-India boundary is clear and consistent." The issue is being addressed through talks between Special Representatives from both sides, he said.

"China and India are seeking the solution to resolve the boundary question that is fair, reasonable and acceptable to both sides. We hope the Japanese side can understand the sensitiveness of China-India border question and respect China and India's efforts to resolve dispute through negotiations and be prudent in its words and actions," Hong said.

[SSridhar]

Chinese Daily Asks India to Give Up Cold War Mindset - New Indian Express

India needs to "give up its Cold War mindset" so that ties with China can become promising, said a Chinese daily that noted democracy has become a burden for India's development.

India is "a proud nation, competitive and unwilling to lag behind". It is eager to challenge China in every aspect, from aerospace, military force, to economic strength, said the Global Times Monday in an op-ed page article "India faces tests before it can overtake China".

The daily said China is now providing a chance for both the countries' economic strength to ride high. The initiatives of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, which were unveiled by Chinese President Xi Jinping, would build a massive trade and infrastructure network connecting East Asia with Europe, and provide an opportunity for a win-win bilateral cooperation.

"But many people in India are still stuck with a Cold War mentality toward China. Apart from the remaining border disputes, they do not think the network, or any connection with China would benefit India. On the contrary, they are extremely vigilant, believing that the Chinese army may invade once a railway is built through the two states."

It added: "What's more, they always doubt that China will interfere in the affairs of northeast India by supporting separatist militants. To be frank, they should stop over-thinking. China has no intention of interfering in the internal affairs of other countries."

The article said that if India "could give up its Cold War mindset, China-India cooperation will be promising. Even if India does outrun China some day in the future, Beijing will give New Delhi its warmest congratulations".

Many people consider China and India the engines of the development of Asia, some even regard them the engines of the world, it said.

The daily said that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ambitious "Make in India" plan has been gradually put into practice, and India's economy has progressively recovered in the wake of economic reform measures.

"Some predict that India will outrun China economically in 20 years, while some say 50 years. Granted, the economic picture in India is brightening, but it won't be easy for it to displace China as Asia's next economic giant," said the article compiled by a Global Times reporter based on an interview with Wang Dehua, head of the Institute for the Southern and Central Asian Studies, the Shanghai Municipal Center for International Studies.

It noted that India's fast-growing population and inexpensive labour market have made it attractive for foreign investments and admitted: "India also enjoys a better marketization than China, and has been making life easier for local businesses."

Nonetheless, New Delhi still has some barriers to overcome before taking the next big leap.

"...democracy, which the nation is so proud of, has become a burden for development. For example, building a railway in India takes much more time than it does in China. Whenever policymakers decide to go in for large-scale construction, protests will be raised against it, mostly by opposition parties and groups.

"The messy democratic tradition in India has made it hard to deliver a coherent approach to get every piece of big projects done."

It went on to say that India "has not found a way yet to get around the problem of the polarization of wealth and corruption remains rampant".

"From the Bofors scandal that involved then prime minister Rajiv Gandhi in the 1980s, to a spate of scandals under former prime minister Manmohan Singh in 2012, corruption has been rocking India's society while hampering its growth."

[arshyam]

Interesting, who do they think the target audience is? If written in Chinese, I can understand extolling the virtues of totalitarian methods, and running democracy down. But this is published in their English language paper, which most Indians don't read. And those that do, will assume the bias before stepping in. Do they seriously think Indians will read such articles and take it at its face value?

[Tuvaluan]

This is psy-ops played on chinese citizens -- all the chinese citizens I have met actually think that China is a benign and weak-kneed power to challenge other countries, which is a fine way to cultivate the ground for ensuring nationalism to be used at the right moment should the Communist party/PLA actually want to engage in hostilities in the international arena. They can easily play victim to "aggression behavior of other countries with anti-china mentality" and gain local support.

[arshyam]

Yes, but Global Times is an English language paper. I would expect the psyops for local consumption to be in Chinese, considering that they don't have a big English language media like India does. Even the few Chinese folks I have met in the US seem to mostly read Chinese news sources (for news from home, I think).

[Tuvaluan]

Good point, arshyam. This could also just be some tactical rhetorical adjustment to pretend being more reasonable than India to third parties.

[arshyam]

I have been thinking about this: maybe the target audience is not us, but the 2nd and 3rd generation Chinese people in the west, who may not read Chinese and think from a western perspective, which implies democracy =good, dictatorship =bad, so India being democratic is not all bad. And these folks might question the Chinese approach. The Chinese state here is pointing out India's struggles in order to justify the control China has over its people.

[vasu raya]

They just want a rail link to a port city of Bangladesh maybe Chittagong through the chicken neck area and onwards to Tibet, see the article about hiving raw material from Africa in mil forum

[Tuvaluan]

There is also the Myanmar route via kaladan to the India's northeast, and there is absolutely no chance that the GoI will allow the chinese anywhere near these assets. The chinese leadership must be high on narcotics to think India would cooperate with then on the disputed territory of Tibet....which may have been possible during the MMS heydays, but today is different.

[SSridhar]

From NightWatch for the night of Jan 19, 2015

Japan-China: Three China Coast Guard ships sailed into Japanese territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea on Monday, the Japan Coast Guard said. A Japan Coast Guard patrol ship issued a warning that urged the Chinese ships to leave. The intrusion was the second this year. China Coast Guard ships last entered the waters on 9 January.

Comment: There was no reported exchange of fire and no close calls by the ships. The two might have been testing recently approved crisis avoidance and communications procedures.

On 12 January Japan's Defense Minister Gen Nakatani said that Japan and China agreed to an early activation of a maritime and air crisis management mechanism for the Senkaku Islands/Diaoyus. The mechanism includes a hotline between authorities, apparently the Coast Guards; use of a common radio frequency for ships and aircraft in proximity to the islands and annual working meetings on crisis management.

Comment: The mechanism should help prevent incidents from escalating. On the other hand it is a clear statement by both nations that they have no intention of dropping their claims or backing down from asserting them.

[Suraj]

Yes, but Global Times is an English language paper. I would expect the psyops for local consumption to be in Chinese, considering that they don't have a big English language media like India does. Even the few Chinese folks I have met in the US seem to mostly read Chinese news sources (for news from home, I think).

There are *two* Global Times portals. One is the benign-sounding and statesmanly English language portal, whose article is mentioned here. There's another: the original Chinese language site is a firebreathing nationalist tabloid. The reader comments in Chinese follow the same angry tenor. Regular news items and eye-opening comments about 'their Aksai Chin' and 'South Tibet' (i.e. Arunachal Pradesh) there. If half of the original Chinese news and comments were posted on the English site too, it would get a lot of people in India, Japan and elsewhere quite annoyed...

[SSridhar]

Interesting, who do they think the target audience is?

I have a different take. The target audience are the GoI mainly and GotUS, Japan and Australia otherwise.

Clearly, China has been trying to woo India into its fold to dilute the Asian Pivot. It probably believes that India is still sitting on the fence as to whether to join with the US-Japan-Australia-Korea axis or the Russia-China axis. We must keep in mind that the trilateral strategic dialogue among India, US, Japan is being upgraded to ministerial level, Australia is about to be formally inducted into the Malabar exercise, the India-US military exercises (including Malabar) are being widened in scope and depth etc. However, China is probably emboldened by India's decision to be a founder-member of the Chinese AIIB and the effusive reception Xi Jinping got from Modi. India joining AIIB was a huge success for China. It knows that Modi is all for development and it thinks it can bait India with suitable blandishments.

I have never known the Chinese to praise any Indian effort. It has always been dismissive of India. This article praises Indian efforts in aerospace, military, economy and is even willing to congratulate India if it overtakes China ! It is written a week ahead of the Obama visit. It lists the benefits that can accrue to India from joining hands with China. It therefore wants India to join the other economic project of China, the MSR, a counter to TPP. India is not yet part of TPP and so Chinese angling is at a right time. However, India is wary of MSR from security perspective as it involves not only the encircling India politically and economically, but also projection of Chinese naval power in the Indian Ocean. Hence the references to the Cold War mindset (and couched in terms of the North east).

[SSridhar]

From NightWatch for the night of Jan 19, 2015

Vietnam-China: Chinese police shot dead two ethnic Uighurs who were trying to cross the border into Vietnam, state media said on the 19th. A "conflict" occurred when the Uighurs "violently resisted arrest" near a highway tollbooth on Sunday night in Pingxiang city in the southern region of Guangxi Province, the China News Service said.

The Ministry of Public Security said that since May a task force on human smuggling across the country's southwestern borders had uncovered 262 cases. The authorities said they worry that Uighurs go abroad to contact Islamist militants. The smuggling is "mainly organized abroad and controlled behind the scenes by the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) in efforts to spread religious extremism, and bewitch and incite people to flee abroad to take part in jihadist activities," the ministry said in a statement on its website.

Comment: This event is significant because it confirms the Uighur connection through Vietnam. Uighurs reside primarily in far northwestern China. Nevertheless, during the past year, Uighur militants attacked public transportation stations in several major cities in southern China. The smuggling is not for human bondage, but for aiding Uighur militants in reaching Islamist training centers and returning to China to conduct terrorist attacks.

[vijaykarthik]

Interesting, who do they think the target audience is?

I have a different take. The target audience are the GoI mainly and GotUS, Japan and Australia otherwise.

Clearly, China has been trying to woo India into its fold to dilute the Asian Pivot. It probably believes that India is still sitting on the fence as to whether to join with the US-Japan-Australia-Korea axis or the Russia-China axis. We must keep in mind that the trilateral strategic dialogue among India, US, Japan is being upgraded to ministerial level, Australia is about to be formally inducted into the Malabar exercise, the India-US military exercises (including Malabar) are being widened in scope and depth etc. However, China is probably emboldened by India's decision to be a founder-member of the Chinese AIIB and the effusive reception Xi Jinping got from Modi. India joining AIIB was a huge success for China. It knows that Modi is all for development and it thinks it can bait India with suitable blandishments.

I have never known the Chinese to praise any Indian effort. It has always been dismissive of India. This article praises Indian efforts in aerospace, military, economy and is even willing to congratulate India if it overtakes China ! It is written a week ahead of the Obama visit. It lists the benefits that can accrue to India from joining hands with China. It therefore wants India to join the other economic project of China, the MSR, a counter to TPP. India is not yet part of TPP and so Chinese angling is at a right time. However, India is wary of MSR from security perspective as it involves not only the encircling India politically and economically, but also projection of Chinese naval power in the Indian Ocean. Hence the references to the Cold War mindset (and couched in terms of the North east).

Primarily a nitpicking point - aren't you comparing apples and oranges? I thought the FTAAP was Chinese rival for TPP? Surely, so, isn't it. Yes, the MSR too seems like a way but technically not a direct rival of TPP though. Its just their (Chinese) strategic doctrine to ensure that trade can happen through roads and rails if there is danger of embargo of the SCS, ECS, IOR. I still think its quite questionable. I haven't done the math yet and cant mention authoritatively on it currently... but I do believe that cargo transported by ships and by naval assets are reasonably cheaper when doing large distances than by acquiring land, ensuring rails are put in place ensure that they are free of terrorists attacks etc etc -- maintenance and ongoing opns seem like a nightmare that too when going through int borders (and particularly remote regions) when compared to ensuring that the sea routes are free from danger. --> a fundamental qn which pours a lot of salt water on their ambitious rail & road plans.

[My cynical opinion: I think its perhaps just their way to act like idiots and get rail projects from companies and rival japan and its mag-lev technology too
Just like the Nicaragua canal that the freak proposed a few weeks back. Will neve get completed... but the access to the ports and the massive land banks and also new Chinese folks who have moved in there. ]

[A_Gupta]

http://www.dw.de/the-sino-pakistani-axi ... a-18194448

As one Chinese expert put it: "If China decides to develop formal alliances, Pakistan would be the first place we would turn. It may be the only place we could turn."

That deal has held, and Chinese dealings with the Taliban have continued ever since – some Chinese officials claim that China is the only state other than Pakistan itself to maintain continuous contact with the Afghan Taliban leadership since 9/11.

....by some measures, Pakistan has been the most dangerous place to be an overseas Chinese.

The two sides don't even see eye-to-eye even on dealing with India – China would like to see a relationship between Pakistan and India that is less volatile, has a stronger economic component, and more closely resembles the China-India relationship.

{Western} coordination with China has proved far more difficult, and it has still tended to operate as Pakistan's enabler and protector, whether it comes to the use of groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba or the rapidly growing Pakistani nuclear program.

....India wants to look east, while China wants to ensure that it still has to keep a close eye on its west.

China used to outsource its Afghanistan policy to Pakistan but is now taking a far more active role in the planning for the aftermath of the West's drawdown.

Pakistan should be one of the biggest winners from China's rise as a global power but if its internal security deteriorates or if Chinese anxieties about the country's political direction worsen, it will be a great lost opportunity.

[SSridhar]

Primarily a nitpicking point - aren't you comparing apples and oranges? I thought the FTAAP was Chinese rival for TPP? Surely, so, isn't it. Yes, the MSR too seems like a way but technically not a direct rival of TPP though. Its just their (Chinese) strategic doctrine to ensure that trade can happen through roads and rails if there is danger of embargo of the SCS, ECS, IOR.

vijaykarthik, yes, you are right in a way if you technically compare. But, I have a different reason for why I said what I said.

FTAAP is still a far-fetched idea. In the earlier APEC meeting (mid-2014) and then the Beijing-meeting (late 2014), the several parties to FTAAP have not even agreed to a 2025 deadline for that. There is already a strong RCEP in vogue in which China is already a significant member.

The MSR, OTOH, is a single-handed China initiative that has both economic and military aspects. This could be achieved by China in a short-span of time unencumbered by any partners because it is a sole Chinese enterprise. India would be the biggest catch and a pivot too for this ambitious project.

If the Asian Pivot of the US involves military aspects plus TPP, excluding China, then the counter to that is the 'Look West' policy of China that is MSR which extends all the way from Southern China all the way into Europe, both militarily and economically. This is how I look at it.

[arshyam]

^^^ Suraj and SSridhar sirs, thanks.

[ajay_hk]

x-post
India-China border: Now, faster green nod for roads, infrastructure

NEW DELHI: A government panel on Wednesday cleared as many as 53 projects, including power, railways, roads and irrigation canals, while the environment ministry decided to ensure faster green clearance for border roads and infrastructure projects for ITBP- a paramilitary force which is deployed along the India-China border.

[SSridhar]

PM Modi's 'Act East' policy: As Obama visits, signs that India is pushing back against China - Reuters, Economic Times

When Sri Lanka unexpectedly turfed out President Mahinda Rajapaksa in an election this month, it was the biggest setback in decades for China's expansion into South Asia - and a remarkable diplomatic victory for India.

Despite New Delhi's protestations, diplomats and politicians in the region say India played a role in organising the opposition against pro-China Rajapaksa.

His successor, President Maithripala Sirisena, has said India is the "first, main concern" of his foreign policy and that he will review all projects awarded to Chinese firms, including a sea reclamation development in Colombo that would give Beijing a strategic toehold on India's doorstep.

India has pushed back against China elsewhere in the region since Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office in May, improving ties with Japan and Vietnam, both locked in territorial disputes with Beijing, and contesting a port project in Bangladesh that could otherwise have been a cakewalk for China.

The new robust diplomacy, which Modi calls "Act East", has delighted Washington, which has been nudging India for years to dovetail with the US strategic pivot toward the region.

When President Barack Obama makes a landmark visit to India starting Sunday, he will be the chief guest at New Delhi's showpiece Republic Day military parade, and rarely for a presidential trip, is not scheduled to visit any other country before returning to Washington.

"What is appealing to me and my colleagues is the fact that Prime Minister Modi has undertaken to build from what has been a 'Look East' policy to an 'Act East' policy," US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific Daniel Russel said in Washington last month.

"He has shown in word and deed his interest in involving India in the thinking and the affairs of the broader region. That's very much to be welcomed."

Washington made no bones about its distaste for Rajapaksa, who critics accuse of war crimes, corrruption and nepotism. But until last year India was indecisive, perhaps afraid of pushing the hero of the war against Tamil separatists even closer to China.

That changed in September, when Rajapaksa allowed a Chinese submarine to dock in Colombo, without informing India, as it was bound to under an existing agreement.

"That was the last straw," a senior Indian diplomat told Reuters.

"He told Modi: "the next time I will keep you informed,"" the diplomat said, a promise that was broken when the submarine visited again in November.

In the build up to the Jan 8 election, India played a role in uniting Sri Lanka's usually fractious opposition, for which the station chief of India's spy agency was expelled, diplomatic and political sources say.

"At least that was the perception of Mahinda Rajapkasa," said M.A. Sumanthiran, a prominent member of the Tamil National Alliance, a coalition of parties close to India. "He managed to get one of their top diplomats recalled."

The Indian government denies any of its officers was expelled. But Sumanthiran said Modi had in a meeting encouraged the Tamil alliance to join forces with others in politics.

"The Indians realised that you can't do business with this man and they were hoping for a change," he said.

"Family matter"

On Friday, Sri Lanka said it would review a $1.5 billion deal with China Communication Construction Co Ltd to build a 233 hectare patch of real estate on redeveloped land overlooking Colombo's South Port.

In return, China was to get land on a freehold basis in the development. This is of particular concern for India, the destination for the majority of the trans shipment cargo through Colombo.

"The message is clear, that you do not ignore Indian security concerns," said the Indian diplomatic source.

Modi is looking for similar good news elsewhere in South Asia. He has already visited Nepal twice, becoming the first Indian prime minister to travel to the Himalayan buffer state with China in 17 years, and signing long delayed power projects.

India has muscled into an $8 billion deep water port project that Bangladesh wants to develop in Sonadia in the Bay of Bengal, with the Adani Group, a company close to Modi, submitting a proposal in October. China Harbour Engineering Company, an early bidder, was previously the front-runner.

"Modi is willing to engage on long-term issues that stretch beyond India's border, including maritime security in the South China Sea, as well as North Korea and Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria," said Richard Rossow at policy think tank CSIS.

"That's when we start to think about India as a regional global provider - or as a global provider of security."

However, the bonhomie has limits - India and the United States do not see eye-to-eye on Pakistan, New Delhi's traditional foe that enjoys substantial funding from Washington.

Tricky conflicts over trade and intellectual property hold back business, and India has limits to its ability to project force outside its immediate neighbourhood.

But Modi's policies mark a departure from India's traditional non-aligned approach to foreign power blocs.

"Having the US president at the Republic Day celebration is a good thing, he is blessing Modi," said Mohan Guruswamy, of the Centre for Policy Alternatives, a think-tank.

"And that is a lesson to the Chinese that you have to mend your fences with us."

[SSridhar]

Philippines slams China island building as Beijing hits back - Straits Times

The Philippines' foreign minister on Thursday slammed China's attempts to build islands in the disputed South China Sea, prompting Beijing to accuse Manila of making "trouble out of nothing".

Albert del Rosario repeated a warning that Beijing was reclaiming land around isolated reefs in the South China Sea to turn them into islands which could hold fortified positions or even airstrips.

The Philippine foreign secretary said the Chinese actions in the Spratly islands would impact freedom to navigate the strategic mineral-rich waters, through which large volumes of the world's trade pass.

"I will re-emphasise this and invite the concern of the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) states because it is a threat to all of us," del Rosario told reporters.

[SSridhar]

Japan's Arunachal stance a 'tactic' against China - IANS, ToI

Japanese foreign minister Fumio Kishida's remarks that 'Arunachal Pradesh' was an "Indian territory" is Japan's tactic of taking sides over a disputed territory, said China's Global Times newspaper.

The article on Friday, based on an interview with senior researcher Geng Xin, also said that backing India showed that Tokyo's ambition went beyond merely strengthening its relationship with India.

Following a protest lodged by China, Kishida said he made the remarks taking into account the facts that "India basically and effectively controls (the region), and China and India are continuing consultations on the border issue", according to the article.

"Since tensions between Beijing and Tokyo have risen in recent years, especially fuelled by the escalation of the Diaoyu Islands issue, Japan has more than once deliberately stepped into China's territorial disputes with other countries," the article said.

According to the article, this represented Japan's intent of "uniting" the countries that have territorial disputes with China in order to create a strong impression that Japan, along with China's other neighbouring countries, is bullied by a rising China.

This way, Japan could put the blame on China instead of itself in the case of a conflict, it added.

The Global Times article pointed out that this was not the first time that Japan had cozied up to India.

According to the article, when Shinzo Abe visited India for the first time as prime minister in 2007, he told the Indian parliament that Tokyo regarded New Delhi as a good friend, and spoke of the high respect in Japan for Indian jurist Radhabinod Pal, who was the only one to cast a dissenting vote against convicting Japanese officials of war crimes during the Tokyo trials.

"Such inappropriate remarks hurt not only the feelings of the Chinese people, but also the interests of Japan's ally, the US," the article said.

"But India is not going to fall for Japan's tricks easily. As an emerging power, India has made its political philosophy very clear when it comes to Japan's attitude toward history. Successive governments in India have all clearly expressed that Japan should reflect deeply on its wartime past," the article said. {China is trying to be clever-by-half}

It added: "New Delhi is well aware that it should seek a wise balance in its relations with China and Japan."

The article pointed out that the existing Sino-Indian bilateral trade volume exceeded $70 billion, almost three times the economic and trade volume between India and Japan.

"Not only that, China's experience of development is a positive lesson for India, and India has also showed its interest to learn from it," the article said, adding: "In this context, wrecking the relationship between China and India would only show that Japan is a country lacking noble manners, and that it will resort to any means in order to achieve its goals."

According to the article, China should not be too concerned about Japan's "improper" actions even though Sino-Japanese relations have hit a historical low at the moment.

[SSridhar]

Myanmar becomes battleground of growing China-U.S. rivalry - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

China is feeling the heat in Myanmar — a country which is central to Beijing’s energy security and Silk Road plans — following Washington’s push to entrench itself in Nay Pyi Daw.

The website Duowei run by overseas Chinese is reporting that China’s focus on deepening ties with Latin American countries, in Washington’s backyard, has impacted on the decision by the United States to energise its engagement with Myanmar.

Analysts say Yunnan — China’s strategic province, which is one of the starting points of President Xi Jinping’s 21st century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) project — could be the ultimate target of American inroads in Myanmar. Yunnan is China’s gateway to Southeast Asia, sharing common borders with Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam.

The contest for influence seems to be peaking in the run-up to the October elections in Myanmar, whose results are likely to define the country’s geopolitical gradient.

According to Duowei, talks on human rights between the U.S. and Myanmar took place between January 11 and 15. But apart from the Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labour Tom Malinowski, who headed the delegation, two senior officials from the U.S. Pacific Command — Lieutenant General Anthony Crutchfield, as well as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for East Asia, David F. Helvey also joined the dialogue. Gen. Crutchfield also paid a visit to Myitkyina in Kachin state, the region embroiled in a civil war. A Chinese consular delegation is currently visiting Myitkyina, to ascertain whether some Chinese citizens were trapped in the Kachin state amid armed clashes.

Observers say that any deterioration of the situation following an intensification of fighting between the Myanmar’s government forces and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) should worry China, as it could trigger a flood of refugees towards Yunnan, which is not far from that zone.

The website Sina Military Network is reporting that should Myanmar’s army attack Pharkant, one of the main Kachin bases, which is close to the Chinese border, it could trigger refugee flows into Yunnan, a situation similar to 2009, when there was an outpouring of refugees, following an attack by government troops in the Kokang Special Region, which borders Yunnan.

Any refugee exodus can flare social tensions as the Kachin people belong to the same ethnic group as the Jingpo people who reside in the Yunnan province, and would be naturally empathetic to those displaced across the border. Instability in northern Myanmar also has economic implications as China is a major market for jade, gemstones and teak, which originates in the Kachin hills.

For China, a loss of turf in Myanmar can remove one of the hinges of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the MSR — both essential to integrate the economies of Asia and Europe, with China as the hub. China has signed an agreement to build a railroad from Myanmar’s port of Kyaukpyu on the Bay of Bengal to its Yunnan province. But the implementation of the project, which would help China to evade the Malacca straits — an international trade artery in waters dominated by the U.S. — is encountering serious difficulties. These obstructions could multiply if a pro-Washington government takes charge in Nay Pyi Daw, following the elections.

Kyaukpyu is also the starting point of a gas and oil pipeline that heads towards Yunnan. Analysts say that Beijing is already wary of local protests against the project, which could multiply if an unfriendly government takes charge in Myanmar.

[Paul]

Yunnan province is the BIMARU region of China.