Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by SaraLax »

MohdKav wrote:It has begun, So this what a Bus service business people, have to go through; corruption at the checkposts and motor vehicle department. Remember one poster stating if you are 99% correct.they will you let be , the contempt and silliness of the arguments presented on this forum are frankly sickening.
Image
Dear Keralite Businessman (who has all the time in the world to post & show haste in forums rather than concentrate on overcoming temporary business troubles) - Is this above indicated incident continuing to happen on every day/night since the midnight of Nov 9 ?. Once the first bus got blocked - the bus driver would have already indicated his company boss about the issue and this info would have got around to all the companies & made the company owners feel the need to provide the latest notes to their bus drivers for use at inter-state entry or exit points.

I can suddenly see many of my usual Narendra Modi hating 'friends' resort to long times in Twitter and etc - stating why this is the doom of Indian Economy and how the PM is a stupid guy and so on. You are rhyming the same thing too. As is the usual in your land - please go ahead and vote the Congress people or IUML or SDPI or Communists - who will blindly allow all of this to happen (all dirty pigs that contributed to the creation of this sewage dump & who continue to muck around and expand the same nasty smelling sewage dump) and status quo is what you want to prevail and stay comfortable to resort to same old BM tactics all around. I find many similar people are up to same old antics of unfairly criticizing the PM's steps every day.

I personally know of many SMEs & even small diagnostics lab who were all issuing salaries directly to accounts of employee in TN. Of course small time contractors & companies working in informal sectors, illegal chit funds circulating among known group of people and so on - will have to suffer for some days and their BM antics will get hit. We understand that you are also a BM resorting businessman and are now crying that your current business finance antics & financial habits have been stopped or blocked by current government. As a businessman resorting to BM antics and you claim that you will continue to bribe, use BM antics in the society on the whole & find ways to keep your family happy - so please go ahead and continue your BM antics in newer possible ways. The NDA government is disrupting the BM creating & BM wheeler-dealer sections of the country to change their old wrong habits & move over to a cleaner form of doing business. Fine if you do not want to adopt this simpler, cleaner option. If not today, such businesses will be trapped again tomorrow in some newer trap.You never would have wanted the current government to come into power anyway. So we understand your feelings.

Would the transporters have not started using the newer money notes since the next day itself ?. Of course there will be confusion on the day or two post the implementation of demonetization. Even i don't know how i am going to pay the bi-monthly electricity bill in a few days from now - which has to be paid in cash if bill is less than INR 5K and i am keeping some old notes in hand to pay (if the utility accepts it). but nevertheless, i am confident that either i will be able to sort this issue out or the local government will provide some one-off help to get the people to pay utility bills in cash or in digital money transfer transactions.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by vnms »

This MohdKav is blaming Modi govt for some stuff that started 8 years ago or 4 yrs ago. Doesn't make sense to me. I guess, since I'm not a business man, I won't get the logic!!!
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by kvraghav »

When we start a new work, we start using our OD and get the papers processed for the loan. Once the loan is processed, we clear the OD for the next work. The problem is when we depend more than 50% of the business value in loans. Then OD would have already been exhausted. If we have a higher debt to asset ratio and sometimes its from local lenders and if the payments get delayed, we go into loss. Once, we did a turnover of 6 cr in a year but had measly profits since most of the lenders had 36% per annum lending rate. The tension was immense too and we had to sell 2 properties to cope with delayed payments. Now the turnover is much less but the profits are good and we have less tension.
Last edited by kvraghav on 13 Nov 2016 09:33, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Gus »

Shiv - JJ certainly gives that vibe that her corruption is useful for people while MK corruption only enriches his family (the implied argument being that because she has no family, her corruption is not for personal benefit ) ..nobody says in so many words but this is what her supporters will say when asked why JJ corruption to be condoned compared to MK corruption
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Prem »

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by SaraLax »

If i may be given the permission to push forward a request to those resourceful & service minded folks of this forum who all are in India or who can make some effort in this front : - This is a great opportunity to ensure a less BM infested economy for our next generation but at the same time this is also a humungous effort when it comes to re-monetizing the whole country (& particularly the people at lower levels of economic pyramid) which can take days to happen.

So we have sections of people less financially aware as well as less financially strong (starting from our less educated citizen folks, aged & less physically strong people who cannot stand in bank lines, our dear house maids, the auto/van/car drivers taking our children to schools, our security guards and those who have always dealt with cash based living .. often in 100 Rupee notes and less in 500 Rupee notes).

Forget about folks like MohdKav who continue to rant that their age old BM infested manner of running businesses are no longer working. We wanted BM & Corruption to be rooted out of our economy and this is starting to happen. So If we Can - Let us share some of our time, efforts and even money (if you can) to help these disadvantaged folks stay afloat financially during this period of confusion.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by saip »

Can some one translate that?
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by ShauryaT »

shiv wrote:Local govt in Blr is a model of public private partnership in black money . Funds are set aside for garbage collection and roads. For garbage collection a favoured private contractor has to carry 25 lorry loads of garbage per day (example). Who counts? He does 15 loads and collects money for 25 and pays a kickback to the local corporator/MLA. As regards roads a tender is sought for asphalting 1 km of road for say 2 crores. The road is done and it looks good. But what people don't realise is that asphalting needs to be done to a particular thickness. You will have a good looking smooth road even if you put just a 5 cm thick layer as opposed to the 15 cm layer that should be the norm.

Government is about making black money and Modi is seen as a "traitor" of sorts - hitting at the heart of the black money business. I suddenly realized last night what Mamata didi means by "anti-people". I think Mamata' model and the Tamil Nadu model is to use thousands of crores of black money to distribute to people. Since the money is not directly for personal gain ergo it is "for the good of the people" and killing that is "anti-people". What is hidden is that this is a parallel economy to ensure that power and money making ability are retained by bribing voters
True. What has happened in this case is a big stick has been used to strike everyone the perpetrators, collaborators and some victims of this system. Granted that this move seeks to remove the parallel economy in a single blow. Granted that those in the above categories with BM will feel the pinch one way or the other. The question is what next?

Will a retailer, who has a electric signage in Mumbai needs to pay an annual license fee of Rs. 50,000 to put it up now pay this amount or will the municipal inspector and the retailer collude, where a cash bribe is paid again? The retailer feels that this amount is not only arbitrary but unaffordable as a cost to his business. Will the next retailer, this inspector goes to buy his iPhone with BM declare or refuse this cash money? Will this electronic retailer not hoard his cash for the next purchase of his swanky Apartment?

Examples of such type of harassment duet to a combination of arbitrary laws, willing to be compromised officials are many and one can provide N number of examples and scenarios. I am being told that things are changing and it is not as bad as it used to be. I am not here to justify the BM economy but to point out that the vast majority are in legitimate activity and are largely victims and at best collaborators of a system - they did not choose.

Will the PM now show us that the prime targets of his campaign are the perpetrators in government, central, state and local?

If not, I am willing to bet this step on its own is likely to backfire. Politically and economically. May provide some benefits to the government at a fiscal and monetary level and through this to the nation but the larger battle with corruption, reforms, transparency and trust will be lost.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Karthik S »

saip wrote:Can some one translate that?
In IT raid at that place, 13k Crores BM was found. Along with rupee, dollar currency was also found.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by saip »

Thanks. That is 2 billion dollars. One company. Wow!!!
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Gus »

I would be vary of trusting random pics. Raid folks don't put this out. They confiscate phones and cameras etc first before search.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Paul »

Analysis paralysis on this thread. India has moved on!
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by shynee »

Only posted around 12 hours ago. The view count already crossed a million.
Prem wrote:
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by saip »

Paul, Please stop posting in Hindi unless you provide translation.. Thanks.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by ArmenT »

saip wrote:Can some one translate that?
The post by Prem translates to:
"Today, in Kishangad, Rajhasthan, R.K. Marbles was raided by Income Tax officers and caught with 13,000 crores of black money. Alongside with Rupees, R.K. Marbles was also caught with dollars."
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Rahul M »

MohdKav wrote:Try giving 89 people salaries every month and see the difference.
write them a cheque if they dont have a/c's.

frankly, either businesses will figure out a way to stay within the law and prosper or they will try clinging to the black money way and fail. their choice.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by MohdKav »

Rahul M wrote:
MohdKav wrote:Try giving 89 people salaries every month and see the difference.
write them a cheque if they dont have a/c's.

frankly, either businesses will figure out a way to stay within the law and prosper or they will try clinging to the black money way and fail. their choice.

Do you even read or even understand context before you post? Or is your idea to - Troll ?
Last edited by Suraj on 13 Nov 2016 10:42, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Posted banned for trolling.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Lilo »

ArmenT wrote:
saip wrote:Can some one translate that?
The post by Prem translates to:
"Today, in Kishangad, Rajhasthan, R.K. Marbles was raided by Income Tax officers and caught with 13,000 crores of black money. Alongside with Rupees, R.K. Marbles was also caught with dollars."
I checked the news, RK Marbles bust was in sept 2015 & they found like 10 crores cash.
One should'nt not circulate news without verifying with own filter.
There is no way one can find 13,000 crores in a single place.

Edit:Worried to see even Kiran Bedi retweeted this illogical pic.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by chetak »

THIS CHARTERED ACCOUNTANT SENT A MIND BLOWING OPEN LETTER TO KEJRIWAL ON CURRENCY DEMONETIZATION!/


THIS CHARTERED ACCOUNTANT SENT A MIND BLOWING OPEN LETTER TO KEJRIWAL ON CURRENCY DEMONETIZATION! MUST READ

Viswajith | November 12, 2016 | Trending | 836
24.1k

An Open letter to Arvind Kejriwal by CA Mehul Shah.

To explain the probable Logic behind issuing New 2000 Rupee Note instead of 1000 Rupee Note.

Sir, I am a practising Chartered Accountant aged 28 in Surat and I was very hopeful that you would support the Notification for Demonetization of Currency and was very eager for your Reaction because your very entry into Politics was for supporting any small move to reduce Black money and Corruption and after all, this was indeed a very big and bold move….!

But after going through the Video released yesterday, my expectations from AAP as a Commonmen were shattered once again because I believed that a person of such stature and designation as you would spread positivity all around without any ifs and buts to make this Mega Clean-up Drive possible and rather help the common men in mitigating the problems rather than nagging about the same and hence I would like to bring to your knowledge the following Points.

Point 1
As you have stated in your Video that it took full 2 days for you to understand the various aspects of the Scheme and even after consultation with various Experts , you could not basically understand the Logic of why 2000 Rupee Notes were released instead of 1000 Rupee Note, I would like to make an attempt to tender my best possible logic ( Please enlighten me if I am wrong somewhere) as follows:

Sir, let us Simply take 2 Scenarios to understand the funda !
Scenario A : If as per your suggestion , Rs. 2000 Note are not issued but only New Rs. 1000 Notes are issued.
Lets say , for example Mr. X has Rs. 1,00,000/- black money in 100 Old Notes of Rs. 1000 each.
Mr. X divides those Rs. 1,00,000/- into 10 Equal Bundles, each comprising of 10 Old Notes of Rs. 1000 each and puts each Stack on a Table.

On Day 1 , in the morning Mr. X would deposit the first Bundle i.e. 10 Old Notes of Rs. 1000 valued at Rs. 10,000 into the bank and on same Day 1 in the Evening he would withdraw 10 New Notes of Rs. 1000 again valued at Rs. 10,000 and put it in the Locker in his house.
Now the real Game starts.

On Day 2 : Morning , Mr. X would deposit the second bundle of 10 Old Notes of Rs. 1000 valued at Rs. 10,000 kept on the Table. However in his books of accounts submitted to Income Tax Department, he will show that he has deposited the same 10 New Notes which was withdrawn on Day 1 : Evening ( which is actually still lying in the Locker of House )

On Day 2 : Evening , Mr. X would again withdraw 10 New Notes of Rs. 1000 valued at Rs. 10,000/- and keep the same in Locker . So at the end of Day 2, Mr. X has Rs. 80,000 on Table in Old Notes and Rs. 20,000/- in New Notes in Locker.

Now Day 3 will come in next week as limit of Rs. 20000 per week.

The same exercise shall continue till Day 10 and by the end of Day 10, Mr. X shall have no Old Notes and Rs. 1,00,000 in 100 New 1000 Rupee Note in the Locker.

However, to the Income Tax Department, Mr. X has shown that he was having only Rs. 10,000/- as black money initially ( i.e. one bundle of 10 Notes of Rs. 1000 ) and he has rotated the same Rs. 10,000/- by depositing it into Bank account in the morning and withdrawing it in the evening and again redepositing the same on next day and so on.

Thus, Mr. X has paid tax only on initial Rs. 10,000 whereas he has managed to convert all his Black money of Rs. 1,00,000 into new Notes.

This Modus operandi is called Peak theory i.e. theory of rotation of same money which is accepted by most of the High Courts and Tribunals. Revenue is also helpless to catch Mr. X because the above scenario can also occur in genuine cases where you withdraw money from bank to purchase something and then when you think that no good deal is available, you may again deposit the same money into your bank account and are not required to pay tax again.

Scenario B : Watch what happens when PM issues New 2000 Rupee Note instead of 1000….!

Mr. X deposits first bundle of 10 Old Notes lying on Table in the Bank on Day 1 : Morning and then he withdraws 5 New Notes of Rs. 2000 on Day 1: Evening and keeps it in locker.

Now on Day 2 : Morning when he goes to deposit second bundle of 10 Old Notes of Rs. 1000 each and wrongly shows the Income Tax Department that he has redeposited the same money which was withdrawn on Day 1:Evening – Bingo !!!

He is caught red handed !! because the Bank slip on Day 2 submitted to bank shows deposition of 10 Notes of Rs. 1000 each whereas the Govt knows that Mr. X could never have withdrawn on Day 1 any note of Rs. 1000 because they were never Printed !!!!

Now Isn’t it really a Master Stroke by Mr. Narendra Modi, the beloved Prime Minister of our country ?!

Sir, you have stated in the Video that if Someone gives you the logic of issuing New notes of Rs. 2000 instead of Rs. 1000, you will Salute the PM and support him in his endeavour. I hope this explanations finds you in good health and I am waiting for the support in full sense.

Even if the above explanation is not completely true, we should rely on and respect the PM of our country who is elected through clear democratic majority.

Further, the fact that when someone is holding the new Rs. 2000 Rupee Note , he is phychologicaly getting a sense of freshness that the country is in the growth phase. Messages are being circulated not to write anything on New Notes. Imagine if the Govternment would have never issued new higher denominations notes with inflation and growth we would still be dealing with Annas and Pavlis!!

Sir, the above example also gives you an explanation as to why the withdrawal limit is kept so low because the above modus operandi can still be done with Rs. 500 note however, the incentive would be less because Mr. X cannot withdraw more than Rs. 10000/- in a day and even if he withdraws Rs. 10,000/-, there is every possibility that Banks shall give Mr. X, 2000 Rupee note. So Mr. X cannot follow the above modus operandi.

And believe me Sir, each and every condition in the Notification is seen to take care of the problems likely to be faced by Citizens and at the same time making sure that such Sophisticated theories are not resorted to by Black money hoarders, but questioning everything in the name of Freedom of Expression may create Panic situations or bring out Loopholes and hamper the success of reforms.

Point 2
Sir, you have again criticised and stated in the Video that printing Rs. 2000 rupee note will help to increase Corruption because Stacking those Rs. 2000 Rupee Notes would require lesser Space as compared to Stacking Rs. 1000 Notes.

In this regard, I would like to ask that Sir, have you come across any case where the “Babus” have not taken any bribe and done work honestly because they had a small Bag which could not be fitted with Rs 1000 Notes ?!

Or have you come across any Businessman who has declared unaccounted money solely because there was no space to keep those Rs. 1000 Notes !!

Point 3
As stated in the Video by you, it is true that inspite of PM efforts, there shall be dubious commission agents and unaccounted Investment in gold through jewellers, but as far as I remember when the jewellers were on strike for 45 days when our PM levied excise duty on gold in month of April 2016, it was you who supported their strike. It shows that whenever some changes are suggested to regulate a particular Market, AAP opposes them and then now you nag that the Gold market is unregulated.
Infact I believe that the PM had a full blue print for the development of our country right from Day 1 of his being elected if I recall my last 3 years as a Professional.

Firstly they asked for all the bank account number in your Return of Income

Then they linked your PAN with Aadhar

They linked all the subsidies, pension and other benefits directly to your bank account through Direct Benefit Transfer Scheme.
Then they gave opportunity to all the common men to open an account with bank through Jan Dhan Yojna

They entered into revised treaty with most of the countries in which unaccounted money goes through HAWALA e.g. Mauritius and thus the route of Black Money coming from Mauritius which everyone knew is stopped.

They passed few strict laws to overcome the evil of black money such as Benami Transaction Act and Foreign Black Money Act
They levied Excise duty on Gold.

They also made TCS compulsory for Cash transactions above 2 lakhs.

They withdrew lakhs of pending income tax and service tax litigations where Common men had won at Appeal level and Department had gone further.

They also entered into information exchange agreement with such countries.

Then they gave last opportunity to all black money hoarders through Income Declaration Scheme, 2016

Now they have a Scheme for Dispute Resolution Panel again to reduce Litigation till December 2016.

Now the masterstroke, that they have banned Rs. 500 & Rs. 1000 denominations.

Not only the destination of this whole process is commendable but even the journey or the chronology of these events is interesting which explains the ultimate destination and who knows , may be the journey is still not over and the ultimate destination may still be the Swiss Account holders!!

Point 4
Further, you have stated in your Video that penalty would be levied at the rate of 200%. The said statement has created a panic and people have stated discounting their own hard earned cash.
Being in Income tax Department in the past , you ought to know that as per the present Income Tax Act,1961 penalty is never levied on Cash deposits but on “concealed income”. Hence when the common men is depositing Cash in hand which is duly accounted or out of his past savings and even out of unaccounted current years income whose return is yet to be filed, there shall not be any penalty if there is no mismatch between returned income and assessed income. Even the Government Officials in their statement used the words “underreporting” or “mismatch”. To understand the definition of “underreporting”, Sir please refer Section 270A of the Income Tax Act or go through the following article:

No penalty on high denominations notes deposited into bank if such amount is declared in return of income by paying appropriate tax
Instead you could have encouraged the citizens to pay appropriate Tax.

Point 5
Nowhere in the Video have you stated anything relating to Fake currency or Counterfeit Notes because you know that the issue of Existing Fake Currency is solved foolproof.

Which situation would be better ?

Scenario A:
A Labourer standing in queue to exchange Notes from bank for a Short term.

Scenario B :
A Labourer working hard whole day to get a Fake Note at the end of the day?!

The issue of Terrorrist Funding is also tackled but you chose to remain silent on the same.

You have stated that Modiji should have infused Rs 100 Note from before and it would have been you only to have said in this video that “Arre ATM se do din pehle se hi Sirf Rs. 100 ki Note bahar aa rahi thi toh sab ko pata tha , yek koi Secret nahi tha”
Conclusion.

Now Sir, if I am to believe that you really don’t understand these simple concepts even after consulting with Experts for 2 days as already described by you, I am deeply saddened because the common men believe that you are an IITian and have spent considerable time in Income Tax Department also.

Contrary to the same, If I am to believe that you already know the benefits of demonetization which I first learnt in Standard 8 when subject of economics was introduced to me and the concept of Peak Theory which is described by me above and which I learnt with my very limited experience while pursuing my profession of Chartered Accountancy , then I am more saddened and feel AAP Party as more dangerous because I believe that above any religion, politics or reservations in any caste or creed, it will always be education which shall uplift the common men and it is the common men who have elevated you to a position where you are looked by millions as their Idol and it is your duty to educate them and spread knowledge and not keep them in ignorance to preserve your vote bank.

I am grateful to all my Teachers who have selflessly shared their knowledge and some fellow members of CA fraternity who are playing an active role in creating awareness and educating Commonmen about the positive consequences of Demonetization true to the Jewel crowned to the profession as “Partner in Nation Building” and I would therefore like to advise the citizens not to sell the notes at discounted prices or deposit the cash into bank accounts of other benami persons in fear of penalty. Further, do not claim any bogus expenses or bogus loss to gain more trouble. Do not manipulate accounts by creating bogus cash on hand. Be sporty and pay tax honestly to buy peace of building capital.


13669680_10154390954882422_3117132854209866719_n-1
Jai Hind. Regards, CA Mehul Shah Surat mehul@raseshca.com

PS : Sir, Please share the same explanation to Rahul Gandhiji too as lately you both share the same thoughts and statements and have same queries.

Wait for a miraculous amount of tax collection this year !!

I have mainly written this Letter mainly for my love for writing and my love for questioning and understanding the concepts and in view of the freedom of speech and expression my country offers and hope that no one is offended
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by shynee »

On Arnab's show, MR venkatesh was saying that the next big thing in pipe line is to nationalize assets outside of the country. What's he talking about ?
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by chetak »

shynee wrote:On Arnab's show, MR venkatesh was saying that the next big thing in pipe line is to nationalize assets outside of the country. What's he talking about ?
He is talking about Enema.

It's an ancient medical procedure :)
enema

ˈɛnɪmə/Submit

noun

a procedure in which liquid or gas is injected into the rectum, to expel its contents or to introduce drugs or permit X-ray imaging.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Gyan »

As per some tweets wealth tax that was abolished in 2015-16, permitted even non assesses to possess undeclared 30 Lakh in cash without any tax. Hence non assesses can easily be expected to have 30 lakhs in cash and should deposit it in bank while assesses can easily have 50 lakhs in cash which should also be deposited in cash in bank. The problem will be faced by non assesses with more than one crore in cash.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Paul »

saip wrote:Paul, Please stop posting in Hindi unless you provide translation.. Thanks.
I have not posted in Hindi. Assume you are referring to Prem
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by darshan »

Rahul M wrote:
MohdKav wrote:Try giving 89 people salaries every month and see the difference.
write them a cheque if they dont have a/c's.

frankly, either businesses will figure out a way to stay within the law and prosper or they will try clinging to the black money way and fail. their choice.
Poster has been banned so no need to restate it but that is exactly what my extended family members did for their employees. The ones that did not have a bank account were taken to banks and were set up to receive transfers into their account along with quick low down on how to utilize the banking system. He kept bringing up the black money and corruption as system and doing business within it but conveniently did not apply same thinking when it came to regulations and banging head against walls to run business. That is also a system given to you. Figure out how to do business within it.

As far as bus being stopped at checkpost is concerned that is so fake and set up. Transportation guys have very tight network and know about things before they happen. You do not move your vehicles without accounting for everything. I do not believe for a second that that bus would have left without accounting for the checkpost. If the operator did not have cash, then he would have just flat out told the people in the bus to come up with it.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by abhijitm »

Suraj, IMVHO banning someone who doesn't subscribe to one idea is not good. It is not easy to be a minority and stand against the view of so many other posters without sometimes losing cool or the perspective. If he has a grievance then probably there could be many such entrepreneurs sharing the same, who knows? Forum is not a place where people convert to other's idea. Let both sides argue on the topic on this specific thread. Who knows someone from BJP watching this thread might get this to the right audience.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Shaktimaan »

I am also not in favour of the ban. The guy was giving counter viewpoints, from the perspective of businessmen. To ban him for doing so will turn this forum into an echo chamber where everyone thinks the same. We need those viewpoints here as well.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by LokeshC »

I know a few folks whose cash flow got impacted at the last minute because they were relying on "traditional" dark economy for their liquidity needs.

They are still BJP supporters and Modi fans, for now. One more week and they might also fly off the handle like our banned poster.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Akshay Kapoor »

I have reported 2 cases of huge BM evasion to PMO and received an acknowledgement number also. Two posters on BR (this tread) have given me this info and I reported it.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by shiv »

ShauryaT wrote: Will a retailer, who has a electric signage in Mumbai needs to pay an annual license fee of Rs. 50,000 to put it up now pay this amount or will the municipal inspector and the retailer collude, where a cash bribe is paid again? The retailer feels that this amount is not only arbitrary but unaffordable as a cost to his business. Will the next retailer, this inspector goes to buy his iPhone with BM declare or refuse this cash money? Will this electronic retailer not hoard his cash for the next purchase of his swanky Apartment?
Two points. One minor. 50K is cheap. But I digress

From Jan 1st 2017 how will signage renter pay his bribe? Where will he get the cash from. He has to make a profit in cash in the first place.

iPhone is out of the question if it is being bought from retailer. ID proof is needed.

Swanky apartment will need a few crores in black cash. Where is that cash going to come from?

It will take a few months to years before the crores built up so far are collected. And let me make a prediction. Rs 2000 note is a dicey investment when Rs 500 notes are going to reappear. In a few years a government can simply demonetize the Rs 2000 note giving 3 months notice. Of course that depends on a government interested in curbing black money rather than needing black money.

I reiterate that making transport of more than 5 lakhs in cash illegal would make electoral bribes risky. It is easy to forget that dynamite is freely available in the country and yet our bribe taking state police manage to check its transport leaving terrorists to deal with Nitrate fertilizer. Cash too can be checked. People with 10 or 20 lakhs may still get away. But when bigger stashes are carried people will start getting caught.

Many years ago a friend of mine loaded with black money once asked me to carry a bundle of 7 lakhs to his sister in Bangalore when I was staying with him in Pune. I was hesitant but was obliged to help. I had a good excuse plus a squeaky clean tax record. The note bundles went through airport X-ray and security with no scrutiny. Recounting this later some of my wealthy businessman friends told me that I had taken a big risk. That would be impossible if the govt said that people must declare the carrying of cash above some limit - say 5 lakhs. It is easy to forget that most people in India survive on salaries of Rs 20,000 per month or less. 5 lakhs would be more than two years salary for most Indians. Its different that 20 million Indians have spent more for cars
Last edited by shiv on 13 Nov 2016 11:44, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by jamwal »

In shutdown Kashmir people queuing up for Indian currency
Despite calls for a shutdown, people line up to exchange currency in Kashmir


https://www.pgurus.com/in-shutdown-kash ... -currency/
Rough estimates suggested that in the last two days banks operating across Jammu and Kashmir have replaced old currency notes worth over 1000 crores. J&K Bank is running more than 900 ATM machines across the state.

Separatists left high and dry

Meanwhile, the stunning crack down on the black money has left separatist camp and militant sympathisers high and dry across Kashmir valley. Huge quantity of black money (exact figures cannot be traced out) stashed in secret lockers of these separatist leaders have been converted in to paper notes after the financial ‘surgical strike’ by the Modi government.

Facing all these hardships the common people, suffering due to four month long continuous shut down, are once again trying to join the nation wide hunt for new currency notes to resurrect their daily lives but the existence of these self styled separatist leaders have come under threat.
Separatists thriving on ‘hawala’ money

Till date these leaders were thriving on ‘hawala’ money and waging a proxy war against the Union of India through their network of over ground workers.

Now with this single move Narendra Modi led union govt has blocked all their channels of funding and has demolished the huge network of counterfeit currency. The militant commanders would soon be facing resource crunch as currency notes which they must be having in their pockets would no longer be relevant. Intelligence agencies are anticipating soon the militant cadre would require fresh currency to sustain themselves. Even those who give shelter to them need fresh currency to organise basic logistics for them.

It is no political secret that these separatists were receiving loads of ‘hawala’ money through their well oiled machinery and hidden conduits in Kashmir valley. The same network was used to pump money to the street protesters and stone throwers to organise protests against India and raise the banner of revolt.

Pak ISI agency pumping fake currency to feed terror machinery

According to intelligence sources, for past several years Pakistan’s spy agency ISI has been pumping in huge consignments of counterfeit notes, believed to be printed in Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, through the porous borders as part of its plan to undermine the Indian economy and sustain its own proxy war.
According to the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), in 2015, various law enforcement agencies seized 1,78,022 pieces of fake Rs 1,000 notes. This means Rs 17 crore fake notes, which were in circulation could be calculated as they could be seized. Similarly, in 2015, as many as 2,99,524 pieces of Rs. 500 fake notes were seized.

Officials in the security establishment in their assessments have revealed that demonetisation scheme would adversely affect terror financing in the state.

An official said the demonetisation would impact the terror financing, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir. Terrorist outfits like Hizb-ul-Mujahideen collect donations in Pakistan and then route the money into the State through hawala operators. “The terror funding module in place right now, will be affected as the terrorist operatives always store money in the form of big currency notes. That money has become a piece of paper now,” said the official.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by abhijitm »

LokeshC wrote:I know a few folks whose cash flow got impacted at the last minute because they were relying on "traditional" dark economy for their liquidity needs.

They are still BJP supporters and Modi fans, for now. One more week and they might also fly off the handle like our banned poster.
I am also keeping an eye around with people I know. I see this as India is at war against corruption. It will not be a smooth ride for sure. Different people have different breaking point. If someone you come across has reached his/her breaking point then best way is to empathize and calm them down. Sometimes people just need that. Don't ridicule and attack with aggressive counter arguing.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by jamwal »

MohdKav wrote:Try giving 89 people salaries every month and see the difference.

Oh come on, give it a rest. There are some people in my very close circles who have it on a larger scale. One has 200 people who are paid via bank transfers and 50-80 labourers who get cash salaries. Another one has 70-80 employees, all except 2-3 on bank transfers.
Others have deposited cash amounts worth 10 to 90 lakh in last 2-3 days. Since they've been filing tax returns in more or less same bracket, they are not worried.


You are only complaining because you were too dependent on black money, are worried that property of your land will go down and that you valued the convenience of cash distribution more than clean and legal bank transfers.
You want a clean economy without doing anything yourself first ?
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by praksam »

majority of the posters are sitting abroad in their cushy offices and are chest thumping about this and 90% from IT.
get down and walk in the streets or go to the downtown of each cities in India,where most of the brick and mortar shops are there and see the business shattered.Do you think these businesses will be able to get back to their feet soon.Not a chance.Many will go under and the chain reaction will be felt later.
Majority of the hoarders of BM are Babus,Netas,Doctors,Advocates etc.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by kvraghav »

Instead of a sweeping generic comment, please suggest which business will get impacted and how? We would like to have a sane discussion rather than venting anger .
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by abhijitm »

praksam wrote:walk in the streets or go to the downtown of each cities in India,where most of the brick and mortar shops are there and see the business shattered.Do you think these businesses will be able to get back to their feet soon.Not a chance.Many will go under and the chain reaction will be felt later.
I see that too. There will be problem but as long as people do not lose their money I guess they will endure this for some more time. Last few days I have no cash on me. All nearby Kiranas, shopkeepers, restaurants (who accept only cash) are putting me in their account. Problem majorly faced by rickshaw drivers and likes who do not have known customer base.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by jamwal »

Akshay Kapoor wrote:I have reported 2 cases of huge BM evasion to PMO and received an acknowledgement number also. Two posters on BR (this tread) have given me this info and I reported it.
Nice, how do you report it ? Is it anonymous ?
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Suraj »

praksam: let me restate the moral hazard I quoted previously.

Every last one of us in India faced the negative effect of black money. Chronic inflation year in and year out. Every year some essential food zooms in price. The smallest currency notes that were popular when we were young are basically worthless by the time we reach adulthood. Everyone faces it, even shop keepers. Shopkeepers on the other hand also benefit from the black economy, since they can avoid the paperwork and taxes. But there's no free lunch here. Their cost of credit from moneylenders is insane. Shopkeepers openly advertise lower cash prices.

Now, cash based business is a choice. One can choose to obtain credit from formal banking sources rather than a black money lender. For example, the Mudra loan. It's not difficult to obtain. So far this year, 19 million loans totalling 73,000cr have been disbursed. Last year 34 million loans totalling 1.35lakh crore were disbursed. Obviously, this is not difficult to obtain, when on average close to a lakh new loans are being approved each day, averaging Rs.40,000 each.

So... running a business involving preparing for contingencies like situations where there's a cash crunch. People will gladly buy using non-cash options right now. What exactly does jaw-jawing about 'businesses will fail!' accomplish ? People are enterprising . Someone with the motivation to setup paytm, or a card payment device or any such non-cash option, will quickly grab the opportunity to take over the business space vacated by a failing business that tries to survive on cash basis.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by abhijitm »

Suraj wrote: Someone with the motivation to setup paytm, or a card payment device or any such non-cash option, will quickly grab the opportunity to take over the business space vacated by a failing business that tries to survive on cash basis.
Exactly that I was hoping. But all the shopkeepers around me prefer to lend me goods and accept in cash later than going digital ! This psych of avoiding income tax by cash transactions will not go away so soon. Need a surgical strike on that too.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by habal »

praksam wrote:majority of the posters are sitting abroad in their cushy offices and are chest thumping about this and 90% from IT.
get down and walk in the streets or go to the downtown of each cities in India,where most of the brick and mortar shops are there and see the business shattered.Do you think these businesses will be able to get back to their feet soon.Not a chance.Many will go under and the chain reaction will be felt later.
Majority of the hoarders of BM are Babus,Netas,Doctors,Advocates etc.
When 85% of cash circulating is out of contention, then it means entire economy is running on fumes, the remaining 15% only. Let us see where this leads us, the inter-state transporters who supply bulk provisions across states are stuck with this Rs.4000/Rs. 10000 cap. And from next week onwards you will see no supplies rolling into to major centres.

We have to see what new provisions are introduced so that these transporters are taken care of. You cannot use PayTM to pay bribe to the numerous 'police checking spots' across the highways.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by SaraLax »

praksam wrote:majority of the posters are sitting abroad in their cushy offices and are chest thumping about this and 90% from IT.
get down and walk in the streets or go to the downtown of each cities in India,where most of the brick and mortar shops are there and see the business shattered.Do you think these businesses will be able to get back to their feet soon.Not a chance.Many will go under and the chain reaction will be felt later.
Majority of the hoarders of BM are Babus,Netas,Doctors,Advocates etc.
When overnight, all of a sudden 86% of the currencies floating around have been invalidated, then the potential re-supply of 86% of this currency amount (if all of the BM comes through to the banking sector/post offices even) by new 2000 INRs and new 500 INRs (and incremental printed 100 INRs) will take some time. It is only well known that soon after demonetization - there will be reduced demand for consumption of services & products (other than essential ones) and things will come back to normal consumption levels as soon as the replenishment with new currency notes is achieved.

As an analogy i would like to indicate the below.
We - the citizens of Chennai - had our whole life shattered for atleast 1 week last year in December 2015 when continuous rains, overflowing rivers and floods ravaged our city and refused to allow any semblance of normal economic activity to even happen. Apart from the houses & hospitals - Most of the banks, shops, business establishments, industries, govt offices were flooded and we had no economic activity going on for atleast 1 week. Heck even 75% of telecom connectivity went down for upto 4 days in the city. There was no bus/train/air connectivity to the city for 2 days atleast. Like now (i.e during the days ensuing demonetization ) the local businesses were completely shut off and no economic activity happened. Again the worst hit during DECEMBER 2015 Chennai Floods were the small business people. But the city & its surrounding districts bounced back quickly & it was because the people helped each other by sharing whatever they could with others and by being helpful towards the people who were suffering.Currently atleast one still can use the digital mode of transacting economic activities and can use cheques to do the same transactions.

So do your help in whatever legal way you can - to get the new money notes reach people who really need it.
Your fears may not come true. The businesses won't get shattered unless they & their owners are caught in some stasis or the other.

So those businesses who are ready for digital transactions (using POSs & etc) and those which are ready to take cheques (from known customers) - can sort of make up with reduced levels of purchases by the common people. Even TASMAC (TN's state owned agency for selling liquor) has reported some 15% drop sales of liquor in last couple of days as per a newspaper report yesterday.
Last edited by SaraLax on 13 Nov 2016 12:34, edited 1 time in total.
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