First thing, that NYT article above and
this Wiki article smack of the work of Hill and Knowlton on behalf of China. I know those articles are subject to public revision, so I have to wonder if any Rakshak has the inclination to "represent" on that page? I can't do it, I'm just an ABCD. (Canada, actually.)
pankajs,
Thank you for your clear, concise and cogent
questions (shown below in blue). Please forgive me in advance if my responses/retorts are neither as clear, nor as concise nor as cogent; as I hope to make-up for it with profundity.
Speaking for myself: I’m not writing this because I relish the prospect of war between China and India, because I most certainly do not. Neither do I want to upset China’s entire apple cart; only the aggressive and expansionist elements in control of the PLA and CCCPC. In this hope, I am trying to communicate the current situation as I see it and what needs to happen going forward, IMO; essentially as a plea for a peaceful and stable world in the future.
This step the PLA has taken toward ‘The Chicken’s Neck’ is a clear prelude to war. The CHICOM’s have revealed their hand, and it is war to cut a path through to the BoB; severing India’s eastern states. Of course, this is an existential threat to India, and I applaud Bhutan and India together, for standing-up to obstruct this clear prelude to war. Frankly, I cannot think of a more elegant blocking move preventing a larger conflagration, than keeping this Doklam plateau in Bhutanese hands – or at least desolate, or otherwise the domain of herdsmen and passing traders.
I am certain, that if China had more high ground, there would long-ago have been fighting across that border – so I have to be thankful to India for keeping that peace, though she’s held that high ground for a long time.
That’s where “I’m coming from”: It’s “The Threat” from China that I’m interested in defeating and neutering, for the benefit of Indian and Chinese people alike – because it’s this threat that poses a grave danger to the peace and biosphere of the whole world.
1. Landmass grab >>Where is USSR now compared to USA?
It is true that the USSR of yesteryear is no more. What remains of it (essentially) is now known as the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States), of which Russia is the largest member. Recognize that entirely on its own, Russia is still the largest country in the world. Also recognize Russia has recently grown by a few thousand square kilometers in three places; first in Georgia, then eastern Ukraine and most recently by annexing Crimea. It seems Russia is still growing. I’m fond of saying “The bulk of the Asian landmass is Russia, so what do you mean by ‘Asian’?” (I do this when trying to draw-out distinctions, which usually don’t pertain to Russians at all, but others from ‘Asia’.)
Comparisons of size and location aside; “Russia”, formerly known as “The USSR” is
*the power that just picked the presidency of the USA*. Just imagine a chess game where you get to control your opponent’s pieces – this is where it seems Russia sits right now. At the same time, the CIA itself is now reporting that ‘The Richest Man in the World’ is none other than Vladimir Putin, who they value personally, in excess of $200 Billion. I would respectfully suggest that it’s possible many people have the wrong set of lenses in regard to Russia. Don’t get me wrong: I wouldn’t want to live under that regime, as lovely as Russian people are – I don’t like those “politics” and I’ve heard numerous scary stories of the “business environment” over there. (Yikes!) At the same time, there are two points to consider. First, strictly from a geopolitical ‘realpolitik’ assessment, Russia is a better partner for India than is the USA (if one is to make a choice between or place a bet on, one or the other – geopolitically speaking, in realpolitik terms). I know that’s a huge assertion, so to back-up my contention with bullet-points below. But also keep in mind my second point of consideration: That Russia should not be judged as a failing democracy, but rather as a totalitarian state in the process of succeeding. That's the lens to use, to get a clearer picture of Russia. Now consider these additional bullet points…
>> China is what it is today, because the USA was looking to build-up a hedge against Russia. To accomplish this, the USA granted the PRC ‘Most Favoured Nation’ trading status, and even went so far as to open the door to offshoring of massive amounts of US industrial capacity to China. If it weren’t for Kissinger’s gambit enacted by Nixon, the PRC would probably still be more agrarian than industrial; and they probably wouldn’t be up to all the mischief they seem to be, all around their borders.
>> The USA is a major debtor to China, which opens up a potential incentive for USA to sell-out India to China – amicably cancelling debt on a deeply discounted basis. On top of which, American politics are deeply, deeply monetized/financialized. Money, money, money is all that matters, and politicians in the US routinely sell their souls to whichever interest has money to donate to a political campaign. There are numerous examples of American politicians who shamelessly represent foreign or corporate interests over the interests of their own constituents, let alone foreigners without deep pockets – who nobody worries about. Please consider that in the last 50 years, not a single foreign policy issue has played a major role in a US presidential campaign; rather it’s ‘bread and butter’ or ‘pocketbook’ issues that always prevail.
>> A corollary to the preceding point: India cannot afford to ‘bank’ on the USA as a geostrategic partner, for a number of reasons, including what the USA is. Consider: Fully a third of eligible voters don’t even bother to vote (if not more). The other third are fully idiots, but they often turn-out to vote in slightly greater numbers than do ‘reasonable Americans’. Secondly, while it’s possible that an India-friendly president might get elected from time to time; for such issues as arms sales – as one critical example – any two-bit member of congress can raise an objection, not to mention any senator, and the deal can be suspended until it’s adequately debated in the house or senate. Essentially, there’s 538 vetoes, and all those folks need to raise cash to run for re-election. By comparison, the way Russia ‘works’ in these dimensions is entirely different – and also much more reliable and stable, geopolitically speaking in realpolitik terms. Seriously. (Who is an organizer and funder and armourer of Islamic Jihadi movements? Is it Russia or is it rather, the USA?)
>> The USA has many Chinese scientists and engineers and such, including many who are working in US defence contractors. Not every time, but more times than I can count on all my fingers; this has resulted in the exfiltration of sensitive US defense contractor data/primary scientific intellectual property to CHICOMS. Indeed, this has included all manner of bioweapons defense technologies, and
even the complete designs for the US’s replacement W88 variable yield nuclear warhead. That’s right, China has US nuclear weapons designs! That's
Proliferation! (True to form, when the Khans want to do a nice "whitewash" they "over-charge and under-prosecute"; meaning they level heavy criminal charges against the spy, and get lots of ink in the newspaper for it; but in the end fail to convict because the burden of proof they set for themselves was too high to achieve, or they just plain stop trying. Accused gets a pass and lives the rest of his life comfortably, in the US or China is his choice.
>> The same thing applies to
that illegal ZM-87 laser weapon I suspect the CHICOMS may bring-out at Doklam (NB: The Americans suspect
this same device has been proliferated to NoKo and used against US helos patrolling the DMZ there.
Pilots now routinely wear laser-proof lenses while in flight near the DMZ. Just sayin’). IIRC, the technology was actually invented and developed in the USA, then when the treaty banning it was being negotiated, the R&D project was all set to get scrapped; when Israeli interests enacted some kind of agreement that allows them access to US military technologies, especially ones the US no longer seeks to develop. Soon after the plans arrived in Israel, they realized there wouldn’t be a commercial market for it, given that same treaty (on
Certain Conventional Weapons) and so they promptly sold the plans to…. the CHICOMS!
>> IN SUM: The USA created the CHICOM threat. The American MIC has been heavily infiltrated by CHICOM agents, who exfiltrate US defense tech to China, including even nuclear weapons designs and banned weapons. The profit imperative has also motivated many Americans to sell-out to Chinese interests, including politicians. By comparison, Russia doesn’t have the same issues. Sure, money counts and having the cash to pay for things goes a long way with the Russians. But Russia has a border with China, and also a history of war with China, and so will never sell them the most sensitive or secret military technologies, which Russia sees as their only hedge against the numerically greater Chinese. There are probably few (if any) Chinese scientists or engineers working in the Russian MIC; and ‘spare technologies’ developed by Russia are not just turned-over to the highest bidder. For these reasons alone, Russia is a better geostrategic partner for India, and the correct choice for such strategic programs as nuclear propulsion, stealth aircraft, submarine warfare, beam weapons, etc.
2. Resources grab question >> Which is the biggest debtor nation world in the world? The one who get to gobble products and resource from around the world by tossing out a bunch of paper in return.
You are answering your own question here, of course, but I mean that in more way than one. Consider: While the English were pillaging India, they weren’t paying market rates to Indians for the things they got from them. In this way, vast sums of wealth were stripped from India and brought to England, with no obligations to India whatsoever. By contrast, as for the US (by far the biggest debtor nation in the world), at least their “bunch of paper” is considered legal tender internationally, indeed it’s still ‘The Reserve Currency of the World’ and so is fungible and tradeable internationally, for pretty much anything you’d like to buy. One can even take their USDs and bring them to Russia right now for spending locally. That’s gotta count for something, no?
3. Spent money to rebuild defeated foes >> Let us do a thought experiment. Let’s say the US did not rebuild western Europe but turned its back on Europe. So, who would be holding sway over Western Europe now? Marshall plan was not a charity. It made with hard-core American business and foreign policy goals in mind.
I agree totally, that it wasn’t altruism, it was “hard-core American business and foreign policy goals” behind the Marshall Plan. But by any definition you give it, it was barely a holding strategy. It was entirely reactive in nature, and it cost the USA considerable cash – cash that could have been spent domestically, for realpolitik reasons as much as the alternative of rebuilding Europe and Japan. In the final summation: Was it “good business”? Of course, it was; indeed, it was probably the only thing the USA could do, to keep the Russian bear at bay (i.e. the Americans really had little choice in the matter – and now Japanese and German and Italian and French cars are sold all over the world, in competition with American cars). What I’m trying to convey here: It’s not like it was the perfect strategy for American interests, in the final summation (IMO).
What I was trying to convey with my earlier post(s) is that; now with the prospect of BRICS nearly in tatters, the Russians mustn’t be given the impression that India will run directly into the Khan’s arms, because the Russians deserve better, because the Khan’s don’t deserve to be so entrusted by India, and because this whole mess originates with the Khans in the first place. If it also turns out to be a big money maker for them, what disincentive will the Khans have for their disregard and disdain for Indian interests?
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: The recent surge in the price of bitcoins has been speculated to reflect the large-scale 'weiging-in' of Russian money; undertaken to subvert sanctions enacted by the USA against Russian interests. If this can be corroborated or otherwise substantiated, it would signal a dramatic shift in geopolitics. It used to be said, to understand things better, one must 'follow the money'. Well, crypto-currencies don't lend lend themselves to being traced, let alone sanctioned. Now with large-scale state involvement by a wealthy set of oligarchs and such from a resource-rich nation like Russia....... BTC is here to stay! This is a big geopolitical turning point. (Frankly, I'm already feeling dizzy.)
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