2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

[vera_k]

Nothing wrong here. Land inheritance is not affected by citizenship. NRI's can not buy agricultural land but if they inherited it, it is perfectly legal.

Indeed. However, this economic motive explains why the Canadian government would be interested. I wonder how much money is involved here - apparently about $2 million was being remitted from India to Canada in 2017.

Remittance flows by country

[chetak]

Canadian press article with pictures of protests in British Columbia.

B.C. politicians, local farmers worried about unrest in India's Punjab and Haryana states

Given a couple of quotes like this one below, I wonder if Punjab farmland or farming rights are owned by Canadians. That might explain why Canadians are getting worked up over the prospects of the farm legislation.

The unrest is being closely watched by many people in B.C. who come from the area and still own property there.

[chetak]

see how easily and skillfully yech-oory lies

Sitaram Yechury@SitaramYechury · Nov 30

"Varanasi: PM Modi says we are spreading lies, lies & more lies” and Agri laws “don’t remove earlier system”.

Then why does he stubbornly refuse to enact a law “Right to sell at MSP” that we proposed way back in 2017?
Repeal Agri laws.

#SpeakUpForFarmers
https://youtu.be/3nskU3BoGtc

and a stinging rebuttal

Biplab Kumar Deb@BjpBiplab·Nov 30

For more than 25 years, Tripura had a Communist government and the first time MSP got implemented was in the year 2019 under the Modi Ji led BJP Govt.

once again you are just spreading lies, lies and more lies.

[ManSingh]

Canadian press article with pictures of protests in British Columbia.

B.C. politicians, local farmers worried about unrest in India's Punjab and Haryana states

Given a couple of quotes like this one below, I wonder if Punjab farmland or farming rights are owned by Canadians. That might explain why Canadians are getting worked up over the prospects of the farm legislation.

Does haryana, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan count?
https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/union- ... 42964.html
https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/harya ... ues-178157
https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/harya ... est-178424

[Sumeet]

KripalBasra,

Instead of writing highly emotive & passionate posts why don't you give a critique of govt's farm bill so that discussion is focussed on actual points that matter.

[mmasand]

can't believe that this opportunistic piece of political crap has poked his white nose into India's internal affairs again.

what next.... bhangra once again in garishly colorful costumes

TIMES NOW@TimesNow·1h

#BREAKING | Canadian PM @JustinTrudeau raises issue of farmers' protest in India; says that Canada will always be there to defend right to hold peaceful protest.

'We believe in importance of dialogue, we've reached out via multiple means directly to Indian authorities', he says.

Pockets of the province of Ontario, which largely votes Liberals in the federal elections are inhabited predominantly by a Punjabi diaspora, it's not without reason (vote bank). There was a large (by Canadian standards) drive by protest today in Toronto, close to a thousand cars waving placards, flags etc that literally brought the city's main highway to a crawl for 2 hours or so.

Eventually you need to have thick skin, and ride the wave. Give the farmers who have legitimate concerns, assurances from the most senior levels of government, and eventually watch it fizzle away. The police clamping down in the way it has, without any end game, strategy, training, leadership, only antagonises the masses.

[Avik]

Hi, i support Kirpal Basra's sentiments on this. We cant go around condemning our countrymen like this. Sometimes it Punjabis. At other times its Bengalis, Keralites, Tamilians, Harayanvis ...pretty much every community across the country gets targeted on the forum. We need to stop inflaming each other. Differences will always be there amongst 1.2 bn people. Lets not go after each other.
sometimes silence and restraint is golden....

[Rony]

Are we allowing nonsensical posts from these UK based wanna be khalistanis now ? These morons remind me of pakis. Give me this or that or else I will blow you off, never mind even if I shoot myself in the process. There are many RSS people who saved Sikhs from Congress goons. But I don't think any one of those people like to brag about that, rightfully so. The same Congress party btw which is ruling Punjab now and instigating these people just like they instigated sikh extremism before and watch the state burn.

These khalistani nri punjabis talk a lot about being TFTA like their paki punjabi masters, a attitude no doubt instilled by the brits post-1857 as part of their slave recruiting "martial race theory". But read what British actually thought about these "martial races". Physically strong but mentally and intellectually inferior lacking any initiative or leadership qualities to lead military formations. In other words, slave attack dogs nothing more than that.

[banrjeer]

Hi, i support Kirpal Basra's sentiments on this. We cant go around condemning our countrymen like this. Sometimes it Punjabis. At other times its Bengalis, Keralites, Tamilians, Harayanvis ...pretty much every community across the country gets targeted on the forum. We need to stop inflaming each other. Differences will always be there amongst 1.2 bn people. Lets not go after each other.
sometimes silence and restraint is golden....

Thank you for youre support.. I thank godI still post.. I do not live in India but have family in Punjab .. all I want in another 4 years is to retire to my home land knowing it is the same peace full place I leFT when I was 7. Iam coming back to my roots.I do not want a India lost in hate but a united India with its place in the world.

You need to understand that the last time khalistanis protested , public transport busses were bombed. people in two wheelers shot down random people in drive by shootings, passegngers were dragged out of buses lined up ad shot and Canada failed to extradite people who blew a passenger jet out of the sky.

We also need to figure out why there are no adversely affected farmers from other parts of India who are protesting

India is not lost in hate but other are lost in their hatred of India. Hatred is a function of prosperity and here India beats the curve. Hatred is kept in check despite poverty. Let's impose India's standards of living and social inequity on the west and see where they stand on the hatred index.

Also lets remember how the west attained their prosperity through colonizing and loot. Its not all legit

[vera_k]

Delhi government notifies one farm law, examining the other two

Officials said that vegetables and fruits were deregulated in 2014 enabling trading beyond agricultural produce marketing committee managed mandis. The notified law adds foodgrains and poultry to the list, they said.

Opposition BJP and Congress attacked the AAP for its support to farmers agitation while notifying the farm law.

[vera_k]

Given what looks like huge Canadian land holdings in Punjab, the government must find a way to make these agricultural holdings liable to income tax. Might as well have this tax be credited to the Indian treasury, instead of having this tax get credited to Canada.

[hnair]

I need a Red Bull and a yoga mat to take a nap after all that janitorial work in this thread above

And people, just report! Next time others will also get warnings if you answer more than once to a drunk dude.

[Aditya_V]

I think we don't want to discuss the elephant in the room, there will always be minority of each state linked with BIF forces, it is clear a section of New York Hedge funds , elite in Canada and UK who control these BIF forces and want Lahore and Isloo to dominate the Sub continent as they are easily controlled by them. We need to have a long term plan working with the Americans, Canadians and British that these forces are disuaded.

[disha]

Delhi government notifies one farm law, examining the other two

How much agricultural land is there in Delhi? And how many of them are marginal and small farmers? Of course several will mushroom up in lootyens zone and even residential flats with exotic plants may be categorized as "farms" or "farm houses". So how much of Delhi state has agricultural lands?

[disha]

Hi, i support Kirpal Basra's sentiments on this. We cant go around condemning our countrymen like this. Sometimes it Punjabis. At other times its Bengalis, Keralites, Tamilians, Harayanvis ...pretty much every community across the country gets targeted on the forum. We need to stop inflaming each other. Differences will always be there amongst 1.2 bn people. Lets not go after each other.
sometimes silence and restraint is golden....

As long as we are equal opportunity condemning all, then we are okay. It should not be selective of just one community. So please bring in the list that we missed to condemn.

For example, in a recent HR case, the manager insisted that there is a status report 3 times a week at 9:30 am for the local team and 8:30 PM for the offshore team which is 4:30 hrs ahead of UTC. All meetings were dial-in. And of course, if the status is missed in the morning, you have opportunity in the evening and vice versa. One of what we can now call 'woke' complained that she is adversely affected since because of her situation where she has to maintain a long-distance relationship she cannot attend the 9:30 am meeting and 8:30 pm is too late for her. And that is targetted harassment since she wanted the meeting time to be changed to 11:00 AM or 4:30 PM which was ignored.

The complaint was thrown out. The HR manager cheekily pointed out that giving status reports is stressful for all and all are targeted and equally discriminated and there is no gender specificity on the discrimination and hence no discrimination.

The same can be applied above.

[KLNMurthy]

MSP ( minus mandi fees ) is guaranteed for a crop covered by MSP mechanism. There are no variances in payouts or middlemen taking a cut here. There is no variation in prices either. It almost always increases every year.

Middlemen make money on advancing loans against future produce. Farmers need money to pay for inputs. When formal channels of banking are exhausted or a farmer does not qualify for a loan, the farmer asks middlemen/Arhtiyas. They charge an exorbitant interest rate for this. Also the arhtiyas have some influence on whose crop gets picked first but this is not a deal breaker.

Mandi fees sustains the infrastructure necessary for APMC mandi's ( where MSP priced crops are purchased). This infra is the responsibility of the state government who also collects the mandi fees for this purpose alone. With any drop in crops procured under APMC, the mandi fees collection will also drop. This also means the infra required for such procurement will/can not be maintained as present and may gradually wither away.

Hope it helps.

My analysis was more or less on similar lines. If left alone, mandis can decline due to lowered collection of fees (I called them commissions, which was incorrect) when farmers prefer to sell outside the mandi.

Let me restate my question (which I don't think you answered): If it is a matter of keeping a useful institution like the mandi alive, the political or street agitation power that the farmers have demonstrated could be used to force the state governments to ensure that there is enough taxpayer money given to the mandis to keep operating, even if on a skeleton basis. (After all, in a democratic setup which runs on lobbies and power politics, there is nothing cast in concrete about only using fees for keeping mandis alive.) Instead, the farmers are using their power to keep the open market option off the table. Why?

[Rony]

Look how much punjabi farmers are pampered compared to farmers in rest of India

[sanjaykumar]

Are we allowing nonsensical posts from these UK based wanna be khalistanis now ? These morons remind me of pakis. Give me this or that or else I will blow you off, never mind even if I shoot myself in the process. There are many RSS people who saved Sikhs from Congress goons. But I don't think any one of those people like to brag about that, rightfully so. The same Congress party btw which is ruling Punjab now and instigating these people just like they instigated sikh extremism before and watch the state burn.

These khalistani nri punjabis talk a lot about being TFTA like their paki punjabi masters, a attitude no doubt instilled by the brits post-1857 as part of their slave recruiting "martial race theory". But read what British actually thought about these "martial races". Physically strong but mentally and intellectually inferior lacking any initiative or leadership qualities to lead military formations. In other words, slave attack dogs nothing more than that.

I don't think this is true, even if it were, would you refer to your country cousins this way?
There is a bit of a chip on the shoulder on some, but a small minority. I am a Panjabi but I remember when one of these fellows was demanding in a Sikh congregation that the army chief should be a Sikh. I was infuriated when he said instead the sarkar had appointed people like Kumaramangalam, and that he found the very name funny/absurd.

Two lessons:

1 these people do not want a democracy/meritocracy, they want special privileges a la Muslims because of who they are. That is sufficient reason for them. I don't even think it's about Khalistan, they want to lead India especially politically/militarily. I honestly do not know the agenda, is it some atavistic entitlement? Or do they want to turn India's massive potential against Pakistan- to address some unfinished business of history, both from two centuries ago and more recent history?

2 the parochialism is not a monopoly of any one group. India has a social culture of provincialism, which I personally loathe. So the fury was perhaps too specific.

At any rate let us not fall into any traps obviously being laid to elicit exactly this type of reaction.

[Ambar]

MSP ( minus mandi fees ) is guaranteed for a crop covered by MSP mechanism. There are no variances in payouts or middlemen taking a cut here. There is no variation in prices either. It almost always increases every year.

Middlemen make money on advancing loans against future produce. Farmers need money to pay for inputs. When formal channels of banking are exhausted or a farmer does not qualify for a loan, the farmer asks middlemen/Arhtiyas. They charge an exorbitant interest rate for this. Also the arhtiyas have some influence on whose crop gets picked first but this is not a deal breaker.

Mandi fees sustains the infrastructure necessary for APMC mandi's ( where MSP priced crops are purchased). This infra is the responsibility of the state government who also collects the mandi fees for this purpose alone. With any drop in crops procured under APMC, the mandi fees collection will also drop. This also means the infra required for such procurement will/can not be maintained as present and may gradually wither away.

Hope it helps.

Again, MSP is not going away, there is nothing in the farm bill which suggests to the contrary. The government does not have anything in the bill which indicates it will reduce the FCI procurements either, so i am not sure what this fear of corporate takeover is.

How are majority of the farmers surviving today who grow produce outside of the 22 commodities covered by MSP ? Also, even within the categories of commodities covered by MSP, what happens to the produce that falls outside of the FCI procurement for PDS ?

Here's the Niti Ayog's report on MSP sale from a couple of years back -

STATES: MSP sale Open Market sale
Gujarat 12.5% 65%
Mah 28.33% 67.50%
U.P 28% 63%
K'taka 0% 100%
Punjab 100% 0%


Aside from putting to rest the unnecessary anxiety about the farm bill, we really need think towards the future. Is it reasonable to expect the government to procure 100% of the produced commodities far beyond its needs ? The consequences of such an action would be even more waste in government warehouses than it is today, bottleneck of the supply chain, higher retail price for all the consumers. If MSP is going up every year irrespective of open market pricing then it shows there is something fundamentally wrong with this picture, you are basically incentivizing one segment of farmers to produce beyond the market demand with a guarantee that there will be a buyer who will purchase the commodity at higher than market rate. Sooner or later the government needs to get out of the business of food procurement and distribution. Just like APMC, the food and civil supplies aka ration shops are rife with corruption and inefficiency. At some point like most other countries we need to either come up with benefit cards that can be used to purchase discounted food items at regular retailers or have direct cash distribution through Jandhan yojana.

[nandakumar]

My own take on the farmers' agitation largely driven by Punjab but may include a few other States as well. So let me weigh in with my observations with a Punjab focus. Agricultural lands in Punjab are cultivated largely by tenant-share croppers. Land reforms aimed at conferring ownership rights to tenants has been a casualty in territories not directly administered by British. But even in territory under direct British control it was half hearted at best and feudal at its worst. Punjab represents more of the latter than the former. How does an absentee land lord enforce his defecto control over land cultivated by the nominally owned by cultivators? Only by monopolising the control over marketing infrastructure. Membership of APMC is not a right but a privilege granted by the State. So by denying membership to cultivator farmers you effectively deny any control over his produce. When you throw in the fact that these cultivators have been shut out of the formal banking system because of credit delinquency in the past, the vice like grip of the defacto owners is complete. The new law which seeks to abolish APMC monopoly is in effect deprivation of defacto ownership of lands from the elite APMC members. Now they couldn't directly allege that. Hence they took up the bogey of prospect of abolition of MSP. The speciousness of this logic is only bettered by the other bogus argument that Cess collected from APMC is used to fund rural infrastructure. This is simply not true. The cess goes into the common pool of State's resources. Rural infrastructure is actually funded by direct allocation from the Centre or against devolution of central tax revenues to the States.

[manjgu]

but when Punjab Govt has made its own laws to counter the centres farm bill , why is there a dispute? 1) its clearly politically motivated. Capt amrinder is saying please dont do ur agitation in Punjab... go and embarras BJP in delhi. but to say its khalistani motivated will be stretching it too far. its lead by middleman, brokers, commission agents...the khalistanis and Mullahs are just piggybacking. 2) the MSP/Mandi system is a red herring... the idea is to deny farmers a alternative to the mandi system as the farm bill has identfied new market areas in addition to mandi. there will be no tax, cess, commission in the new market area so the agents are effected. no rocket science here

[chetak]

MSP ( minus mandi fees ) is guaranteed for a crop covered by MSP mechanism. There are no variances in payouts or middlemen taking a cut here. There is no variation in prices either. It almost always increases every year.

Middlemen make money on advancing loans against future produce. Farmers need money to pay for inputs. When formal channels of banking are exhausted or a farmer does not qualify for a loan, the farmer asks middlemen/Arhtiyas. They charge an exorbitant interest rate for this. Also the arhtiyas have some influence on whose crop gets picked first but this is not a deal breaker.

Mandi fees sustains the infrastructure necessary for APMC mandi's ( where MSP priced crops are purchased). This infra is the responsibility of the state government who also collects the mandi fees for this purpose alone. With any drop in crops procured under APMC, the mandi fees collection will also drop. This also means the infra required for such procurement will/can not be maintained as present and may gradually wither away.

Hope it helps.

My analysis was more or less on similar lines. If left alone, mandis can decline due to lowered collection of fees (I called them commissions, which was incorrect) when farmers prefer to sell outside the mandi.

Let me restate my question (which I don't think you answered): If it is a matter of keeping a useful institution like the mandi alive, the political or street agitation power that the farmers have demonstrated could be used to force the state governments to ensure that there is enough taxpayer money given to the mandis to keep operating, even if on a skeleton basis. (After all, in a democratic setup which runs on lobbies and power politics, there is nothing cast in concrete about only using fees for keeping mandis alive.) Instead, the farmers are using their power to keep the open market option off the table. Why?

you gents are saying that all people in the mandis are so very law abiding and honest and every thing is tickety boo.

political parties and political power players have been financing themselves and their parties to a good extent by scamming the farmers out of their earnings by making them foot all the expenses incurred in sales in the mandis, plus, the local MLA takes his cut of so many rupees per bag of grain which is again slyly debited to the farmers account by the commission agents.

not all mandi sales are billed or even recorded so there is a considerable diversion of money into the black economy. Once the farmer gets paid, he doesn't care about or even want bills because he pays no taxes.

wherever such money collections are made, be it the excise dept, checkposts, RTOs and what have you there is a well organised mechanism to skim the cream off the top and the staff makes sure that only the barest acceptable minimums gets through to the govt's coffers.

the same goes for farm loan waivers, disaster relief funds, welfare schemes, bank loans, PDS, from where huge diversion takes place to rice mills, restaurants and bakeries and food processing plants.

this is how the local state guys in power survive and thrive and it's mostly the farmer who takes the major hit at the mandi touch points because of the sheer volumes that flow through the hands of these agents who have to kick back a major share up the food chain.

it is this ecosystem that the powers that be in punjab are desperate to protect because it nurtures them.

the racket of wheat being fraudulently brought from UP etc for sale at the punjab mandis at the MSP is done by the agents and not the farmers.

[Punjabi]

but when Punjab Govt has made its own laws to counter the centres farm bill , why is there a dispute? 1) its clearly politically motivated. Capt amrinder is saying please dont do ur agitation in Punjab... go and embarrass BJP in delhi. but to say its khalistani motivated will be stretching it too far. its lead by middleman, brokers, commission agents...the khalistanis and Mullahs are just piggybacking. 2) the MSP/Mandi system is a red herring... the idea is to deny farmers a alternative to the mandi system as the farm bill has identfied new market areas in addition to mandi. there will be no tax, cess, commission in the new market area so the agents are effected. no rocket science here

Call me Paranoid but my bigger fear is this will soon turn into TauheenBaag 2.0 shitshow with all the bad actors, daadis, naanis and their wailing bacche and their masters funding free Biryaani and watching Delhi hijacked/burn again... Piglies will raise the temperature on LOC in parallel so by end of January when sleepyJoe becomes POTUS, they will yell and scream how bad NaMo/BJP virus is...I bet you this is being game planned, funded and orchestrated for execution... Farmers protesting is God sent opportunity for anti-India forces. I hope I am wrong...

[chetak]

but when Punjab Govt has made its own laws to counter the centres farm bill , why is there a dispute? 1) its clearly politically motivated. Capt amrinder is saying please dont do ur agitation in Punjab... go and embarras BJP in delhi. but to say its khalistani motivated will be stretching it too far. its lead by middleman, brokers, commission agents...the khalistanis and Mullahs are just piggybacking. 2) the MSP/Mandi system is a red herring... the idea is to deny farmers a alternative to the mandi system as the farm bill has identfied new market areas in addition to mandi. there will be no tax, cess, commission in the new market area so the agents are effected. no rocket science here

the state laws will be struck down by the courts, if and when challenged.

these farm bills have been brought in under a section where the center also has the power to legislate. While agriculture is in the state list under the Constitution, Entry 33 of the Concurrent List provides Centre and the states powers to control production, supply and distribution of products of any industry, including agriculture.

so in such a case where state and central laws exist on the same subject, the central law will always take precedence over the state law.

amarinder has, as usual, rooked his farmers by being quite economical with the truth.

[chetak]

but when Punjab Govt has made its own laws to counter the centres farm bill , why is there a dispute? 1) its clearly politically motivated. Capt amrinder is saying please dont do ur agitation in Punjab... go and embarrass BJP in delhi. but to say its khalistani motivated will be stretching it too far. its lead by middleman, brokers, commission agents...the khalistanis and Mullahs are just piggybacking. 2) the MSP/Mandi system is a red herring... the idea is to deny farmers a alternative to the mandi system as the farm bill has identfied new market areas in addition to mandi. there will be no tax, cess, commission in the new market area so the agents are effected. no rocket science here

Call me Paranoid but my bigger fear is this will soon turn into TauheenBaag 2.0 shitshow with all the bad actors, daadis, naanis and their wailing bacche and their masters funding free Biryaani and watching Delhi hijacked/burn again... Piglies will raise the temperature on LOC in parallel so by end of January when sleepyJoe becomes POTUS, they will yell and scream how bad NaMo/BJP virus is...I bet you this is being game planned, funded and orchestrated for execution... Farmers protesting is God sent opportunity for anti-India forces. I hope I am wrong...

Farmers protesting at this time is a planned and instigated event, just like shaheenbagh-1 was planned, instigated and timed to coincide with ट्रम्पवा's presidential visit.

Without any doubt, it is shaheenbagh-2, with the bhangra dancing trudy from kanaeda piping up on cue to draw international focus to the event

[m_saini]

Trudeau somehow remained extremely disciplined during the BLM protests despite there being numerous incidents where he could've spoken up. He instead chose to "trust the democratic structure" of US to deal with the protests.

And to come to think of it, there hasn't been any begging by the lefties or intellectuals to dissuade "farmers" from protesting during these challenging times of Covid pandemic. Those public safety announcements are reserved for saving cats and dogs during hindu festivals it seems

[Suraj]

Is it an economic one, or an economic patronage one ? There's a significant difference between the two.

An economic one is one that due to a combination of potentially localized factors, results in Punjab's farm productivity and economic activity to be negatively effected. Economic reasons can further be natural or unnatural. For example, a natural reason is that the farm bill weakened APMCs, resulting in delays in offtake or procurement that caused losses to farmers, This could be a temporary issue. An unnatural reason is that a high artificial price basis was eliminated due to the farm bill, resulting in lower incomes . This is likely a more permanent problem unless farmers respond by diversifying into crops with higher profits.

An issue of economic patronage of course, is that the wealthy landed political class with a history of APMC driven wealth and graft, are fomenting 'farm protests' as a political exercise. As chetak posted earlier, any sudden well organized protest is a sure sign of foreign money and influence at work.

It's possible that reality is not one but a combination of all of these. But even so, are the members of this protest primarily about any one motive ?

An unnatural reason is that a high artificial price basis was eliminated due to the farm bill, resulting in lower incomes . This is likely a more permanent problem unless farmers respond by diversifying into crops with higher profits.

This is exactly what it is. The prices of certain crops were guaranteed due to MSP mechanism. Now with entry of private players it is feared that the MSP mechanism will gradually be dismantled ( not immediately ). Crop diversification does not work with the current infrastructure. Lack of cold storage, high prices and lack of a distribution chain or even a framework to do so. India has a long way to go before this becomes a reality.

Is it ? Then you’ve just argued that the protests don’t actually have a basis. The reason is that the farm bills don’t eliminate the MSP. They don’t even MENTION the MSP. The MSP is not a statutory mechanism at all to begin with.

That’s why I mentioned that in my argument - I wanted to test if the protesters or even posters themselves know that the farm bill has nothing to do with the MSP.

Protests on the basis of misinformation is sad . One can perhaps understand a collection of poor farmers lacking access to the precise word of law protesting unnecessarily. What excuse do organized large scalr protesters and even the PM of Canada have here ?

[nvishal]

The protests are meant for TV; not New Delhi

Shaheenbag was a failure and it took the participants more than a month to realise that they had no leverage on New Delhi. Similarly, the BJP is not in power in Punjab. The Punjab constituents and Punjabi civilians have no leverage on New Delhi. Just like shaheenbag, It will take them a while to realise it.

[ManSingh]

Look how much punjabi farmers are pampered compared to farmers in rest of India

Wow, what name calling. So you found facts to match your fit the narrative. Shall we question the narrative?

- Procurement is a function of the state governments. So if procurement is low it is reflection of the governance of those states.

- Fun fact: Punjab procures more than it produces ( though it was illegal to so prior to these laws ). The reason is MSP was indeed passed on to the farmers in Punjab.

- Bihar on the other hand only procures a fraction of it's production. Rest is sold to middlemen who transport it to Punjab or sell it to corporate firms.
I have got nothing against people of Bihar who are some of the hardest working. But some things never change about their governance, be it NDA or non-NDA.

- The situation in Bihar is exactly what farmers are currently protesting to avoid.

Long read but please do read.
https://en.gaonconnection.com/rice-rack ... of-punjab/

A lot of the commentary on this forum is extremely negative. A lot of name calling is happening for what is essentially an economic grievance. Note, no one in the government or BJP has done any of this name calling but somehow forum members continue to do so. I hope there is still freedom to disagree with policy/laws introduced and it is not expected to agree or be called terrorists.

[ManSingh]

An unnatural reason is that a high artificial price basis was eliminated due to the farm bill, resulting in lower incomes . This is likely a more permanent problem unless farmers respond by diversifying into crops with higher profits.

This is exactly what it is. The prices of certain crops were guaranteed due to MSP mechanism. Now with entry of private players it is feared that the MSP mechanism will gradually be dismantled ( not immediately ). Crop diversification does not work with the current infrastructure. Lack of cold storage, high prices and lack of a distribution chain or even a framework to do so. India has a long way to go before this becomes a reality.

Is it ? Then you’ve just argued that the protests don’t actually have a basis. The reason is that the farm bills don’t eliminate the MSP. They don’t even MENTION the MSP. The MSP is not a statutory mechanism at all to begin with.

That’s why I mentioned that in my argument - I wanted to test if the protesters or even posters themselves know that the farm bill has nothing to do with the MSP.

Protests on the basis of misinformation is sad . One can perhaps understand a collection of poor farmers lacking access to the precise word of law protesting unnecessarily. What excuse do organized large scalr protesters and even the PM of Canada have here ?

While I do agree with the current laws have nothing to do with MSP, what is feared is that the reduction in Mandi fees will lead to a dismantling of the MSP mechanism inevitably. I have posted my opinion on this a few posts ago. So avoiding repetition.

[Suraj]

Is it ? Then you’ve just argued that the protests don’t actually have a basis. The reason is that the farm bills don’t eliminate the MSP. They don’t even MENTION the MSP. The MSP is not a statutory mechanism at all to begin with.

That’s why I mentioned that in my argument - I wanted to test if the protesters or even posters themselves know that the farm bill has nothing to do with the MSP.

Protests on the basis of misinformation is sad . One can perhaps understand a collection of poor farmers lacking access to the precise word of law protesting unnecessarily. What excuse do organized large scalr protesters and even the PM of Canada have here ?

While I do agree with the current laws have nothing to do with MSP, what is feared is that the reduction in Mandi fees will lead to a dismantling of the MSP mechanism inevitably. I have posted my opinion on this a few posts ago. So avoiding repetition.

Why would the farmer who benefits from lower Mandi fees complain this much ? This is the same farmer who is so lacking in access to capital and liquidity that they turn to money lenders for input costs. These same people who sudden owe lesser fees and thus immediately benefit, are blocking roads and trains complaining about having more money for themselves, because of some claimed could/would argument of the future ? People who are barely able to survive month to month are protesting so vigorously about some alleged possibility in the distant future ?

It doesn't make sense to me. How does it make sense to you ? Align the nature, extent and focus of these protests with the actual reality. In fact, I suggest posting where they farmer are protesting due to 'fear of MSP going away'. This is like women protesting about molestation when the price of onions and dal rise. Some argument can be made between dal price and being molested by someone, so a whole bunch of women protest the absence of an anti-molestation law when dal price rises. This is how these protests look like - some tenuous argument is being constructed to explain these protests, but it has no relation to the reality on the ground.

Sensible educated people - Punjab has historically had high economic standard - ought to be easily able to read the bills and understand that MSP is not any sort of law to begin with . Protesting in this manner, and then constructing tenuous 'it could sort of happen in this feared about way' explanations of the reason for protesting, only makes me wonder if someone is trying to mock the farmers' intelligence, the BRF reader's intelligence , or both.

[ManSingh]

While I do agree with the current laws have nothing to do with MSP, what is feared is that the reduction in Mandi fees will lead to a dismantling of the MSP mechanism inevitably. I have posted my opinion on this a few posts ago. So avoiding repetition.

Why would the farmer who benefits from lower Mandi fees complain this much ? This is the same farmer who is so lacking in access to capital and liquidity that they turn to money lenders for input costs. These same people who sudden owe lesser fees and thus immediately benefit, are blocking roads and trains complaining about having more money for themselves, because of some claimed could/would argument of the future ? People who are barely able to survive month to month are protesting so vigorously about some alleged possibility in the distant future ?

It doesn't make sense to me. How does it make sense to you ? Align the nature, extent and focus of these protests with the actual reality. In fact, I suggest posting where they farmer are protesting due to 'fear of MSP going away'. This is like women protesting about molestation when the price of onions and dal rise. Some argument can be made between dal price and being molested by someone, so a whole bunch of women protest the absence of an anti-molestation law when dal price rises. This is how these protests look like - some tenuous argument is being constructed to explain these protests, but it has no relation to the reality on the ground.

Sensible educated people - Punjab has historically had high economic standard - ought to be easily able to read the bills and understand that MSP is not any sort of law to begin with . Protesting in this manner, and then constructing tenuous 'it could sort of happen in this feared about way' explanations of the reason for protesting, only makes me wonder if someone is trying to mock the farmers' intelligence, the BRF reader's intelligence , or both.

Yes, but you miss the point. The price of wheat/paddy in open market is 1100-1200 vs 1800+ for MSP. In states where APMC's were dismantled, that is what the farmer's get now. Mandi fees is critical to APMC mechanism. It is used/intended to be used by state government's to create/maintain infrastructure to be used for procurement. In many states, the APMC mechanism has withered away.

Read: https://en.gaonconnection.com/rice-rack ... of-punjab/

How is arguing to preserve what works or maintains current lifestyle now nonsensical?

[Suraj]

Yes, but you miss the point. The price of wheat/paddy in open market is 1100-1200 vs 1800+ for MSP. In states where APMC's were dismantled, that is what the farmer's get now. Mandi fees is critical to APMC mechanism. It is used/intended to be used by state government's to create/maintain infrastructure to be used for procurement. In many states, the APMC mechanism has withered away.

Read: https://en.gaonconnection.com/rice-rack ... of-punjab/

How is arguing to preserve what works or maintains current lifestyle now nonsensical?

You're conflating MSP and APMC again. They are not the same thing or even managed by the same entities. The APMCs are run by states. The MSP is set by the central government. This is the same argument as dal price vs molesting - conflating separate things involving separate entities. This reminds me of an old joke:

A farmer loses his keys while walking home from the field at dusk. Someone sees him looking by the roadside near a lamppost:
Helper: let me help you look
Farmer: Thank you so much
Helper: Where exactly did you drop it ?
Farmer: Over there (pointing in the distance to a darkened area)
Helper: then why are you looking here ??
Farmer: Because it's brighter here

So what if the state government loses money due to lower APMC/mandi fees ? The farmers are getting higher MSP from the central government and are paying higher dues to the state government. The farmers get less in the open market, but pay no mandi fees either. What is their net gain or loss ? As you've made very clear, the main loser is not the farmer, it's the state governments that have the greatest dependency on the APMC system. Does Punjab government maintain open budget books on the APMC earnings and spending on infrastructure ? If so, please point us to it so we know they're using this money effectively.

Trade and commerce in foodstuffs is an item in the concurrent list. A federal law has to be notified by the states separately. As quoted earlier, Delhi has so far notified only one of the three laws. Same for Punjab. If Punjab wants to preserve some state level apparatus, that is its own prerogative to do as it desires. They don't need to protest and disrupt anything.

Now given these, what is the point of these protests ? Sure, everyone is entitled to seek a better life, and that includes the people in the cars buses and trains whose movement is being disrupted by people supposedly protesting. Is your argument that the farmer has a right to disrupt others' lives to protest legislative acts that paradoxically say nothing about what they're screaming about ?

[ManSingh]

MSP decided by central govt can only be paid for produce procured by APMC run by states. There is no MSP for selling to a corporate firm/traders which will be determined by market factors.

So if APMC's wind-up, how will the MSP be paid? Me and my ilk have been farmer(s) since independence. A good comparison for us is wheat ( procured at MSP prices ) vs Potatoes/Maize etc procured in open markets. There is a reason why post wheat season is a celebratory season and potatoes can be a death spell for many ( though it is only an intermediary crop ).

MSP price for wheat is Rs. 1800-1900. Open market price is Rs. 900-1100. Mandi fees is sub-5 %. How will this work as a benefit to farmers?

For items in concurrent list, the states can not override the centre. Punjab too has recently passed laws to repudiate the central farm laws. But since the items are in a concurrent list, Punjab law has to be approved by the president ( with inputs from the central govt. ). There is little chance of that happening. No, a federal law does not have to be notified by the state if it is not on the concurrent list but a state law has to be notified by the centre if it is on the concurrent list.

[IndraD]

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[Suraj]

You fail to mention that the MSP is not a legally binding payment in the first place... because it's not and has never been a law In reality not everyone gets the MSP payment - this has already been emphasized on this thread. That's because the state governments do not pass the APMC gains to the center. Why would they ? They can get the money from the farmer, claim it's for infrastructure, and never pay the center who are still supposedly on the hook for the MSP which of course is not a law.

As you've yourself explained, the mandi fee is not mathematically capable of making up the difference between the open market price and MSP, even if 100% of the mandi fees were honestly paid from state to center. The reality is more like 0%. Therefore the entire argument about APMC fees affecting MSP is spurious. There's already a 40-50% gap between MSP and open market. What's the loss of a 5% fee going to do ?

A farmer has a right to a livelihood. But he's also a businessman, and a businessman owes it to themselves to understand how an economic system works. You say the Mandi fee is 5%. The different between MSP and open market price is much more than that. You want the MSP for your produce. Do you understand that you are demanding money from the taxes we pay as a result - which you don't because agricultural income is not taxed ? What greater claim do national resources do you have ? Effective price discovery and market forces at work benefit us as a whole.

You are arguing for a right to maintain a lifestyle . That is a legitimate argument. But are you aware you are arguing for others to subsidize that lifestyle ? Why is there such an expectation ?

[ManSingh]

This is because government procures at a no-profit motive and MSP pricing keeps agriculture as a livable trade. I still remember the abysmal MSP rates of NDA-1 era and the years before that and what it did to farmers then. If I am right it used to be between 650-750 INR. The current market price is not much above that.

Price discovery works if conditions are right. Why do the new laws allow traders to hoard produce whereas this was illegal earlier for other agricultural commodities? If traders form a cartel and procure current year produce at MSP and hoard it till next year, can price discovery be equitable and fair to the farmer? Remember a farmer has a very short period between harvest( and transport ) to be ready for the next crop. He has to accept what is offered as he has no means to safely store his produce.

No, they are not asking you to subsidize their lifestyle if selling price does not even cover input costs. This is true for most other crops and was till a few years back also true for rice/wheat. There is also the concept of a minimum wage, right? Should that also be subject to market forces? In a true market economy, yes it probably should be but what does it do the social stability of such a society?

[m_saini]

MSP and minimum wage aren't even remotely comparable. And minimum wage is definitely subject to market forces. Nobody *has* to hire you for $10/hour, it's just illegal to hire below it. If the chinese guy is willing to work for $2/hour, companies are going to go there, and they do. Should GoI set a MSP and go buy everything in international market at 1500 rather than the MSP at 1975?

Gov *has* to buy at MSP, and even after that it isn't illegal for the farmers to sell below MSP. Would you be willing to protest to make selling/buying below MSP illegal? you know, because working below minimum wage is illegal?

MSP is a *ceiling* price despite what the "minimum" in the name suggests, gov isn't going to buy anything above the MSP. And gen pop obviously won't. Compare that to the min wage, where people get hired above it all the time.

[Suraj]

'No profit motive' is not the same as 'loss making'. An MSP 50% above market price is not 'no profit motive' - it's a huge loss-making fixed margin that the presence of absence of mandis will never pay for, and it is paid by taxing people who have nothing to do with farming. That money you get is coming at the cost of both other farmers (because not everyone gets MSP prices even if they are so defined) and the consumer who pays taxes that you do not have to pay as a farmer. If a farmer depends on MSP when open market costs are below it and others are offloading at that price, it means the farmer in question has a high cost structure.

Arguing for minimum wage and social stability needs to also acknowledge that you are demanding a subsidy. As a businessman I'm sure you understand that social stability cannot be assured by demanding a 30-50% additional margin on your production paid out of someone else's taxes ? Losing out on that may affect you, but that is the reality of any business. As long as you are honest in asserting that you are protesting for a dole to benefit your own standard of living, then we can have an honest conversation on the topic.

The reality is that large parts of the country do not function within the APMC system, and MSP is only set for about ~20 items. Of those, some or most of those farmers producing those crops do not even get paid MSP. This means that if you got paid the MSP, someone else did not get paid for producing exactly the same thing, and if you failed to get paid the MSP, someone else benefited.

I think we can both agree that the farm procurement system is broken. Farming cannot sustain lifestyles beyond a point - the margins are not there for it, without scale. That is a universal economic problem and is what drove industrialization. The government owes it to the country to drive progress in that direction. Eliminating distortions is part of their responsibility.

Rather than make an untenable argument about reverting to the past, what better argument would you offer regarding doing things better from what we've already accomplished ? Legalizing MSPs is not an answer - that is simply an argument to add a price distortion after another price distortion mechanism was removed.

[Rony]

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