Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

nam · Post by **nam** » 02 Jan 2021 04:40

IndraD wrote:not that easy to explain
place i come from is deep in Hindi heartland. People are moving around doing businesses without mask or precautions and still not many cases, not many deaths or serious hospitalisation either with respiratory failure. there are multiple factors at play

It doesn't spread that easily in open space. The severity depends on the viral load. So you have to be around a infectious person quite a bit to get it from breathing. In a closed place.

The first wave has infected the people, who would get infected anyways, because due to their profession they cannot stay away from a crowd.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 02 Jan 2021 05:10

im aware of a case where a nurse who stays in same bedroom with the husband, didn't get coronavirus while husband tested positive for covid .
some patients are superspreaders but most of the carriers do not spread virus.
also assuming in India everyone is outside doing job and there is no close contact or indoor stay is not correct.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 02 Jan 2021 06:09

^^^Not having central heating and AC makes a big difference. Virus shedding concentration gets diluted with airflow.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 02 Jan 2021 08:04

Primus wrote:
mappunni wrote: Got the newer Shingles vaccine today and my Primary care physician said it is very effective. In Texas, they have different sets of guidelines on who gets the Chinese virus vaccine. I was told being diabetic, I should be able to get one of the Chinese virus vaccines in the next couple of weeks.
Please make sure you wait at least four-six weeks between the Shingles shot and the COVID vaccine, you don't want to confuse your immune system. Plus the Shingles IIRC is a live virus vaccine so you don't want to mix up two virus particles in your system.

Thanks for the information. I too got the second shot of Shingles vaccine. The first was painful in the arm, the second made me a little sick (flu like symptoms) for a day or two. I was not told that there should be a time delay for me to get the Covid vaccine. In any case we are not getting the Covid vaccine any earlier than summer in California.
Gautam

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 02 Jan 2021 08:10

^^^Since state health departments across the US are responsible for large scale vaccinations, there are a lot unused dosages. As of 30 DEC 2020, CA received 1.47 million doses and only 294K given. If you ask around, you may be able to get a shot.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 02 Jan 2021 08:20

Indeed. WA state in on the honor system. You can say you are in a high priority group, and get vaccinated ASAP.

A Nandy · Post by **A Nandy** » 02 Jan 2021 14:05

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/heal ... itain.html

Britain Opts for Mix-and-Match Vaccinations, Confounding Experts
If a second dose of one vaccine isn’t available, another may be substituted, according to new U.K. guidelines.

“This option is preferred if the individual is likely to be at immediate high risk or is considered unlikely to attend again,” the recommendation said. Because both vaccines target the spike protein of the coronavirus, “it is likely the second dose will help to boost the response to the first dose.”

Following requests for comment, officials at Public Health England drew attention to the similarities between the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines, and said that clinical trials testing mixed regimens were to start sometime this year.

While it’s possible that swapping out one vaccine for another may still school the body to recognize the coronavirus, it is still a scientific gamble. With different ingredients in each vaccine, it’s possible people will not benefit as much from a second shot. Mixing and matching could also make it more difficult to collect clear data on vaccine safety.

Without evidence to back it, the hybrid vaccination approach seems “premature,” said Saad Omer, a vaccine expert at Yale University. Still, it’s not without precedent: Health authorities like the C.D.C. have previously said that if it’s impossible to give doses of a vaccine from the same manufacturer, “providers should administer the vaccine that they have available” to complete an injection schedule.

In a controversial move, the British government this week also decided to frontload its vaccine rollout, delivering as many first doses to people as possible — a move that could delay second shots up to 12 weeks.

The speedy deployment might afford more people partial protection against the virus in the short term. But some experts, including Dr. Moore, worry that this, too, might be unwise, and could imperil vulnerable populations.

A vaccination gap that stretches on too long may hamstring the second shot’s ability to boost the protective powers of the first — or raise the odds that people will forget, or decide against, returning for another injection.

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 02 Jan 2021 14:52

Dr Harsh Vardhan
@drharshvardhan

In 1st phase of #COVID19Vaccination free #vaccine shall be provided across the nation to most prioritised beneficiaries that incl 1 crore healthcare & 2 crore frontline workers
Details of how further 27 cr priority beneficiaries are to be vaccinated until July are being finalised

Which means that majority of the Indians will start receiving vaccine only after July...so another 8-9 months of constant wearing masks plus hand washing?

chola · Post by **chola** » 02 Jan 2021 15:24

^^^ Unlike the US, the trendlines for India is exceptionally good.

So unless something unforeseen happens, Indians should hold steady and by the time the vaccines arrive we might be able to completely annihilate the virus from India.

We were close to 1 lakh cases a day in September. On Jan 1st, we had just 17K.

India has not just flattened the curve but CRUSHED it. The trendline is on a rapid downward slope!

Here in America, we are hitting peak after peak. They are predicting the worst is yet to come in coming the two weeks after holiday travels.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 02 Jan 2021 19:49

Zynda wrote:Dr Harsh Vardhan
@drharshvardhan
In 1st phase of #COVID19Vaccination free #vaccine shall be provided across the nation to most prioritised beneficiaries that incl 1 crore healthcare & 2 crore frontline workers
Details of how further 27 cr priority beneficiaries are to be vaccinated until July are being finalised
Which means that majority of the Indians will start receiving vaccine only after July...so another 8-9 months of constant wearing masks plus hand washing?

It’s going to be sooner than that. A dry run of vaccine administration has finished up in 125 districts across all states and UTs. According to Dr Harsh Vardhan, the push is going to be similar to the 1994 Polio eradication vaccine program. Another comment made was that this is going to be similar to the work of the EC where no body else in the world handles elections in a more free, fair and transparent way than India. If I were guessing, by July 2021, more than 300 million will be vaccinated across India.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 02 Jan 2021 20:24

Inactivated virus vaccine Covaxin from Bharat Biotech approved for emergency usage in India.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 02 Jan 2021 20:28

Pfizer vaccine works by injecting mRNA which code for spike proteins in our body.
Oxford vaccine works by injecting genetic material into our body, which codes for spike proteins .
Coronavirus is a RNA virus,
so what is the difference in the two vaccines?

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 02 Jan 2021 21:18

IndraD wrote:Inactivated virus vaccine Covaxin from Bharat Biotech approved for emergency usage in India.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 074373.cms

Bharat Biotech's Covaxin gets Subject Expert Committee (SEC) approval for emergency use

nam · Post by **nam** » 02 Jan 2021 22:16

I would think, there would rapid, mass vaccination until the level of daily infection count reduces to very low. Then the rate of vaccination could than slow and become like a regular flu jab.

GoI would target the location which is having high R number. No point mass vaccinating region, which doesn't have large per capita cases.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 02 Jan 2021 22:59

mumbai is contributing to every 4th patient of covid

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 02 Jan 2021 23:15

Oxford vaccines arrive in UK. Vaccination drive to start from Monday. MHRA disapproved half & full dose regime over lack of clarity, 2 full doses 3 months apart which will provoke 80% immunity has been approved https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 79483.html

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 02 Jan 2021 23:17

Oxford university has 6% stake on every vaccine sold in the world. This will give some cash to cash starved university. on BBC their chairman told Oxford gave penicillin to the world in 1940 but regret to have not made any money out of it, cos we need money for new research.

Aldonkar · Post by **Aldonkar** » 02 Jan 2021 23:48

IndraD wrote:Oxford university has 6% stake on every vaccine sold in the world. This will give some cash to cash starved university. on BBC their chairman told Oxford gave penicillin to the world in 1940 but regret to have not made any money out of it, cos we need money for new research.

I too saw the statement from Oxford claiming that they gave penicillin to the world. In fact it was Alexander Fleming of UCL who discovered penicillin in the 1028. One of his students was the first to demonstrate the use to treat an eye infection. UCL is University College London my alma mater though I am an engineer not a biochemist. Fleming won the Nobel prize for medicine along with two Oxford scientists who purified penicillin in 1940.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 03 Jan 2021 03:24

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/0 ... ay-health/
Govt UK clarifies those who had apple vaccine will not be given kaddu next. Pfizer will follow Pfizer and Oxford will follow Oxford.

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 03 Jan 2021 03:50

chola wrote: So unless something unforeseen happens, Indians should hold steady and by the time the vaccines arrive we might be able to completely annihilate the virus from India.

We were close to 1 lakh cases a day in September. On Jan 1st, we had just 17K.

India has not just flattened the curve but CRUSHED it. The trendline is on a rapid downward slope!

It is unlikely that the virus is not going to rear its ugly head again unless we get a high rate of vaccination. There are plenty of rich countries who thought they had "crushed it" only to have had to deal with a stronger 2nd wave. We need a high rate of vaccination to get back to normal.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 03 Jan 2021 05:07

new game in the town

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 03 Jan 2021 11:01

I think GoI's target number for vaccination in India is around 60-70 Cr (600-700 Million), around 50-60% required to achieve herd immunity.

Currently, the priority list is as follows (per open sources):
1. 1 Cr (10 Million) HCWs in both Govt. & Private Institutions pan India
2. 2 Cr (20 Million) Frontline folks (this includes Armed Forces, Police, Paramilitary Forces, Municipal workers etc.)
2a. VVIPs, politicians, celebrities, HNWs (although not publicly stated...these people will covertly clubbed, but the numbers might be around 100,000 to 200,000 max)
3. 26-28 Cr (260-280 Million) aged folks (>50)

The combined total of the above is around 300 Million.

We are getting confusing numbers from SII on how many vaccines will they be able to supply to India initially. Some reports state that SII can supply 50-Million doses by end of Jan and from April on wards, a steady supply of 50 Million doses (supposedly a new line will come online in March).

COVAXIN may receive conditional approval next week as well. Does anybody knows what is the manufacturing capacity of COVAXIN? I think Reddy Labs are gearing up for production of Sputnik vaccine. GoI should tell them to drop that vaccine and instead gear up for COVAXIN.

If we are able to vaccinate at least 300 Million by end of May, I think its a feat. From June, the rest of India can start receiving vaccines.

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 03 Jan 2021 12:58

Covidshield and Covaxin have both been approved for restricted use. However, there is hardly any data available in public domain regarding efficacy of Covaxin yet. Can anyone please explain what's going on and what exactly does restricted use mean?

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 03 Jan 2021 13:27

The first data for Covaxin will be unblinded only later this week. Even there, most of the data will consist of people having received the first dose only.

My reading of the situation is that they approved Covaxin after checking that there were no adverse effects, but before getting data on efficacy. This by itself is not that bad, since the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is also only marginally effective (~53%) after 1 dose. Covaxin then has a low bar to clear for a 1 shot regimen at least.

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 03 Jan 2021 13:36

But what if efficacy is found to be too low? Will they unapprove it then?? Wouldn't it have made more sense to wait till the trial has succeeded since anyways covidshield is going to be the one that is available in the beginning? Last thing we need is people losing faith and conspiracy theories. There is a surprising lack of transparency here and I hope it "works out."

abhishekm · Post by **abhishekm** » 03 Jan 2021 13:59

Zynda wrote:Dr Harsh Vardhan
@drharshvardhan
In 1st phase of #COVID19Vaccination free #vaccine shall be provided across the nation to most prioritised beneficiaries that incl 1 crore healthcare & 2 crore frontline workers
Details of how further 27 cr priority beneficiaries are to be vaccinated until July are being finalised
Which means that majority of the Indians will start receiving vaccine only after July...so another 8-9 months of constant wearing masks plus hand washing?

Aren't vaccines going to be made privately available although at a higher cost? I think we can walk in to any private hospital and pay 4X or whatever and get the jab. No need to wait until August.

Anyone who can pay should get it done this way to reduce the strain on GoI's effort...

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 03 Jan 2021 14:12

1) poonawalla said they currently make 5000 vaccines per minute & have stock of 50 Million. not sure whats the capacity of the new line? 2) can we export the Oxford vaccine.. should be a good money spinner more so if vaccine effects lasts for 1 to 2 years ? 3) should allow private players where one can just walk in .. pay 3x or 4X in a aircon encironment and that should subsidise free vaccines for poorer sections.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 03 Jan 2021 14:19

assuming its 24*7 operation its 216 Million doses per month ... with present capacity ..108 M ( 2 doses)...so mathematically it will take around 12 months production to cover total population of 1.2 Billion.

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 03 Jan 2021 14:31

abhishekm wrote:Aren't vaccines going to be made privately available although at a higher cost? I think we can walk in to any private hospital and pay 4X or whatever and get the jab. No need to wait until August.

Anyone who can pay should get it done this way to reduce the strain on GoI's effort...

I think until there are sufficient stocks of vaccine vials/doses, availability will be regulated. From what I understand, one needs to register on a website (CoWIN...its not fully functional I think. I could not find a "register" section) with phone number & Aadhaar. Upon registration, a particular date & time slot will be allotted (I guess along with vaccination center location as well). Fear is that if they allow private operators to administer vaccine up on costs, many of the initial doses will be consumed in Metros and there will be no equitable distribution. Just like how the current order book of vaccines in the world stand i.e. rich nations (Western) have placed most of the vaccine doses leaving poorer countries to wait in line.

GoI has stated that their target is not to immunize 100% of the population...more like 60%-70% required for herd immunity purposes. My guess is that they plan on free of costs vaccination until they achieve the above target and beyond it, probably vaccine will be available at a subsidised rate/nominal rate and/or people in metros will walk up to a hospital & pay up 2x or 4x costs to get inoculated.

SII has stated that they can allot up to 50% of their production for domestic purposes & rest will be for export. I think from next week, SII will supply UK 2 lakh doses per week.

Also, India is recommending two doses of shots 30 days apart for both Oxford as well as Covaxin shots.

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 03 Jan 2021 16:37

It makes little sense to export for money till we have had enough. Indian economy is losing far more money everyday we have restrictions. It is a different story if the export is deemed important for strategic reasons. However, exporting anything that can be taken up by our healthcare logistics would be like giving away 1 rupee for earning 1 paise.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 03 Jan 2021 19:21

How come they haven't committed and purchased any doses from Serum yet?

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 Jan 2021 19:32

vijayk wrote:
new game in the town

He'll probably fly to the US with extended family and get vaccinated there.

abhishekm · Post by **abhishekm** » 03 Jan 2021 19:54

Zynda wrote:
abhishekm wrote:Aren't vaccines going to be made privately available although at a higher cost? I think we can walk in to any private hospital and pay 4X or whatever and get the jab. No need to wait until August.

Anyone who can pay should get it done this way to reduce the strain on GoI's effort...
I think until there are sufficient stocks of vaccine vials/doses, availability will be regulated...

Also, India is recommending two doses of shots 30 days apart for both Oxford as well as Covaxin shots.

Thanks Zynda-ji, you are correct. I hope India does not go down the route of extending the duration between first and second doses.

The UK seems to believe an 84 day gap between first and second jab is fine as vaccinating more people (with less efficacy) is better than giving second doses to fewer people (with fewer people becoming more well protected). This appears to be a controversial move:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... 9-vaccines

Apologies to adminullahs for linking to the Guardian. It was either this or Daily Mail!

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 03 Jan 2021 23:54

Not monitoring this thread so apologies if already posted, but I think it is important to let people know:
>>>
There are some false rumors about EUA for COVAXIN.

EUA for COVAXIN is different from COVISHIELD because its use will be in clinical trial mode.
All COVAXIN recipients to be tracked and monitored as if they’re in trial.

Congratulations to all!

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 04 Jan 2021 00:05

Not sure this is such a smart move. Will Covaxin ever be able to complete the Phase 3 trial if everyone is now allowed to get the vaccine? Trial participants cannot be prevented from getting a shot of the real vaccine and invalidating their participation in the trial.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 04 Jan 2021 00:10

https://www.livemint.com/science/health ... 63899.html

The Serum Institute of India Ltd., which is producing the coronavirus vaccine developed by AstraZeneca Plc and the University of Oxford, expects the Indian government to sign a formal supply and pricing agreement within days.

Officials in New Delhi have informally agreed that the first 100 million vaccines will be purchased and priced at 200 rupees ($2.74), Serum’s Chief Executive Officer Adar Poonawalla said in an interview on Sunday. The vaccine will cost 1,000 rupees on the private market, which may be approved “in two or three months," he said.

Our babus will steal Govt. supplies and sell it in black for 1000

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 04 Jan 2021 01:30

^^^The vaccine has a shelf life. When approved for private sale in India in 3 months, there will be other vaccines at a cheaper or competitive price of Rs. 200-300.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 04 Jan 2021 01:32

Also looking at data - Worrisome new data—new B117 variant is not only more infectious, it’s potentially more infectious in children 0-9 (+24%) and 10-19 (+14%) ( less among 60-79) compared to common strains.

More worrying —the R estimate is much higher. (As much as .68 higher). This means every person infected w/ B.1.1.7 variant **infects** additional + +0.68 persons** than old strain. Wow.
This may require some serious rethink about school reopening -- (until we get this new B117 variant strain under control)

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 04 Jan 2021 02:46

For the record and to be consistent let me post the data in the same format I have been periodically posting here.
(Data is from John Hopkins - Countries chosen are my choice - where my family resides)

Data per capita: (New confirmed cases and deaths):

Total numbers:

nam · Post by **nam** » 04 Jan 2021 05:17

So much meaningless noise about covaxin. It is obvious that covaxin has been given permission to kick off production, so that doses are in numbers when the Phase 3 trails are completed. ICMR would have got enough data to know there is no major side effects of the jab and BB can start production.

No one is going to do mass vaccination without Phase 3 completion. The produced lot will not be released anyways.

People seem to behave as if Covaxin is already been given from tomorrow. No one is going to force a covaxin dose in your arm.

SII took the risk and belted out 50M doses by time of final approval. I can see on twitter that people are totally shocked at how a "3 world" country can have such massive stockpile within days of approval

Our companies and regulators are just using common sense...