Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 24 Feb 2022 21:27

For BIF media, this is the time to do the "good" work to make friends, money and get credibility. This will be cashed out to make the BIF work. The model of 4 fathers.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 24 Feb 2022 21:28

Cain Marko wrote:^didn't really tell us anything more than what we already know. BIG question is... There is almost zero reports of any organized Ukrainian resistance. Why?

I’d noted this earlier in the thread.

It’s been early days but if this is true, one guess would be that Russia has in some ways subverted significant portions of Ukrainian army’s will to fight and that there are fault lines between their armed forces and the political leaders. Who knows.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 24 Feb 2022 21:37

KL Dubey wrote:
Tanaji wrote:
What is interesting is the speed of this advance. Why dont we see regular Ukranian army units putting up a fight? How do they lose an airport so quickly?
Because perhaps the BIF propaganda of Ukrainians and Russians being "bitter enemies" may not be true on the ground?

IIRC, both Vladimir and Voldamir have tried to address the population of each other's country telling them this is not against the people. They have almost 'appealed' to the citizens of each other. The civilizational connection cannot be thrown out.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 24 Feb 2022 21:43

rsingh wrote:Reports of Russian Army forward elements have entered Kiew. Need of the hour is somebody like Singh Saar...complete updated maps. Moi je ne pas de Temp.

you mean Singha? I also wonder - where are Philip, Singha, UB and the rest. I lost touch with this forum a couple years and I see a lot of the old timers missing.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 24 Feb 2022 21:46

The democrats in US cannot do anything as much as a US worshipers hope. Crimea was attacked during Obama and Ukraine during Biden.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 24 Feb 2022 21:51

Cain Marko wrote:Why will he look like a fool? He's given a middle finger to the west, bombed the shit out of Ukrainian military positions across the entire country, moved in and out as he pleases. So far the only ones looking impotent are ukr army and resistance and western allies who still don't have a coherent response other than usual threats of "severe sanctions"

Because he has given himself no leeway. No looking back from here and unless he gets a massive victory (which is very difficult in a case like this, statistically speaking), he will play a lose-lose game.

Reasons:

a. Russian people dont want it. They want a good economy and this will trouble coffers.
b. Bodybags. It will start rising. Even if numbers aren't disclosed publicly, there will be reports on what's happening.
c. Supply lines will be stretched, the deeper they go into Uk territory and they are moving in rapidly. Goes back to my urban warfare point.
d. NATO will be providing intelligence and sat imagery so Ukr can defend for max impact --> more body bags.
e. This was unprovoked. Even the false flag wasnt set up before this happened.

Showing middle finger is nice for movies and street wars. not in diplomacy. all said, we live in a connected world and sanctions are going to bite and people wont remember Russia like normal anymore after this. They have suddenly become an international pariah and it needn't have happened this way.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 24 Feb 2022 21:52

But does Ukraine army have the numbers and training and will to fight like the Russian army -- India knows that is more important than weapons in land wars.

Anant · Post by **Anant** » 24 Feb 2022 21:54

We, in the United States, are totally powerless. I am just hoping that Putin takes mercy on us!
In the meanwhile, I hope my stock portfolio doesn't tank and gas go to 20 dollars a gallon.
I guess I better learn Russian.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 24 Feb 2022 22:00

vijaykarthik wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:Why will he look like a fool? He's given a middle finger to the west, bombed the shit out of Ukrainian military positions across the entire country, moved in and out as he pleases. So far the only ones looking impotent are ukr army and resistance and western allies who still don't have a coherent response other than usual threats of "severe sanctions"
Because he has given himself no leeway. No looking back from here and unless he gets a massive victory (which is very difficult in a case like this, statistically speaking), he will play a lose-lose game.

Reasons:

a. Russian people dont want it. They want a good economy and this will trouble coffers.
b. Bodybags. It will start rising. Even if numbers aren't disclosed publicly, there will be reports on what's happening.
c. Supply lines will be stretched, the deeper they go into Uk territory and they are moving in rapidly. Goes back to my urban warfare point.
d. NATO will be providing intelligence and sat imagery so Ukr can defend for max impact --> more body bags.
e. This was unprovoked. Even the false flag wasnt set up before this happened.

Showing middle finger is nice for movies and street wars. not in diplomacy. all said, we live in a connected world and sanctions are going to bite and people wont remember Russia like normal anymore after this. They have suddenly become an international pariah and it needn't have happened this way.

All this applies only if the Russians plan to occupy, which they don't according to what they've said so far. Note that we haven't heard of any pitched battles so far. Not even a firefight. Although it is early days yet and ukr might be able to gather up some resistance..

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 24 Feb 2022 22:01

Anant · Post by **Anant** » 24 Feb 2022 22:02

Winning the hearts and minds.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 24 Feb 2022 22:05

Anant wrote:We, in the United States, are totally powerless. I am just hoping that Putin takes mercy on us!
In the meanwhile, I hope my stock portfolio doesn't tank and gas go to 20 dollars a gallon.
I guess I better learn Russian.

US has something called as a printing machine and the status of the supplier of world's reserve currency, until these two factors are involved you have nothing to fear. They'll continue to keep interest rates near 0 and crank few more trillions to "stimulate" the economy.

Back to Ukraine-Russia war, i wonder what's the logic behind attacking Kiev ? Donetsk and Luhansk i understand, maybe Odessa too but Kiev and the areas around Dnieper river will be difficult to hold if this war lasts for more than few days. Besides, unless Putin wants to prove a point by taking over Kiev, i don't see any strategic value in holding on to it.

Guerilla warfare is what Ukraine will go for in the next few days, and it will put Russia in a fix since it knows that flattening entire cities is out of the question, and how long can you keep taking loses fighting block by block ? Russia needs a plan to hold Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea and Odessa and let go the rest .

Anant · Post by **Anant** » 24 Feb 2022 22:09

Ambar wrote:
Anant wrote:We, in the United States, are totally powerless. I am just hoping that Putin takes mercy on us!
In the meanwhile, I hope my stock portfolio doesn't tank and gas go to 20 dollars a gallon.
I guess I better learn Russian.
US has something called as a printing machine and the status of the supplier of world's reserve currency, until these two factors are involved you have nothing to fear. They'll continue to keep interest rates near 0 and crank few more trillions to "stimulate" the economy.

Back to Ukraine-Russia war, i wonder what's the logic behind attacking Kiev ? Donetsk and Luhansk i understand, maybe Odessa too but Kiev and the areas around Dnieper river will be difficult to hold if this war lasts for more than few days. Besides, unless Putin wants to prove a point by taking over Kiev, i don't see any strategic value in holding on to it.

Guerilla warfare is what Ukraine will go for in the next few days, and it will put Russia in a fix since it knows that flattening entire cities is out of the question, and how long can you keep taking loses fighting block by block ? Russia needs a plan to hold Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea and Odessa and let go the rest .

The reason for attacking the other spots is that he's a strongman and needs to show it. We had our own idiot in Bush backed by his puppet masters. Maybe Putin now thinks he's got the shock and awe. It never winds up well. Lots of civilians have died. I'd post the photos but on this forum Russia can do no wrong. I didn't support Iraq and I certainly don't support this nonsense. Soon, the new world order will be Russia, China and whatever rogue countries wish to join them. Simple as that.

Najunamar · Post by **Najunamar** » 24 Feb 2022 22:10

How come Gold has come down significantly from 1960 to 1914 types now? What changed in the war?

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 24 Feb 2022 22:11

Ambar wrote:
Back to Ukraine-Russia war, i wonder what's the logic behind attacking Kiev ? Donetsk and Luhansk i understand, maybe Odessa too but Kiev and the areas around Dnieper river will be difficult to hold if this war lasts for more than few days. Besides, unless Putin wants to prove a point by taking over Kiev, i don't see any strategic value in holding on to it.

Guerilla warfare is what Ukraine will go for in the next few days, and it will put Russia in a fix since it knows that flattening entire cities is out of the question, and how long can you keep taking loses fighting block by block ? Russia needs a plan to hold Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea and Odessa and let go the rest .

The objective seems to be ...hit hvas hard, totally degrade resistance and take up key positions and logistical nodes. virtually cutting off Ukraine from row. Ensure nfz.

The idea is not to fight pitched battles... They have the separatists for that with occasional help from sp forces, air and artillery support.

This seems to be the plan of action.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 24 Feb 2022 22:17

Anant wrote:Winning the hearts and minds.

Interesting picture.

Shows sufficient resources to put on bandages. But lacks the resources to clean up the blood and grime from the face.

It's an interesting psy ops.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 24 Feb 2022 22:19

Well I call it, this invasion is a mistake by Putin, lots of risk and too much to lose. His only hope is he occupies key areas of Ukraine, demands Ukraine does not join NATO, ask Crimea be annexed to Russia to be recognized and withdraw.

He has lost Ukraine for Russia and will only strengthen NATO.

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 24 Feb 2022 22:21

Multiple sources close to Ukrainian govt claim 18+ x IL76s heading for Kiev. Looks like bear plan to take the capital and overthrow the govt. This means UKR's AD system has been rendered ineffective

So that means their 50+ Fighters are either useless or destroyed and their S300s taken out..

That.. is way more than what I thought would be the Bear's game plan.. make a lightning quick dash to the west and cut off Ukraine's access to the Black sea and consolidate the Ethinically Russian areas. Not sure how Vald's end game would look like..

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 24 Feb 2022 22:25

The attack on Kyiv is IMO in the nature of an attempted decapitation strike.
1. Take the capital
2. Find and prop up some friendly politicos
3. Declare victory

Of course it won’t be that simple, but I am of the opinion that this would be his broad strategy in engaging Kyiv. To use an American football analogy, he’s making an end run on the capital to declare victory and force a countrywide political solution in his favour.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 24 Feb 2022 22:28

For us, Ukraine is the same as Pakistan for India

Russian point of view that this operation is to undo the regime change from 2014. So unless Ukraine is annexed to Russia, this will stop once the regime change is complete.

Pointedly rubbing it in department:

India has quite a rich and uneasy history about the restoration of Indian writ and Indian ownership over some territories – we remember Goa, Hyderabad, the Sikkim referendum, and so on. In all these cases Russia supported India, Russia was never against India.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 24 Feb 2022 22:31

Baikul wrote: I am of the opinion that this would be his broad strategy in engaging Kyiv. To use an American football analogy, he’s making an end run on the capital to declare victory and force a countrywide political solution in his favour.

Reminescent of our own Sam Maneckshaw's Dash to Dhaka.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 24 Feb 2022 22:32

yes, one grandmother with a machineguns training in a wal-mart parking lot and another grandmother with bandages fresh from war, uh huh, sure. I bet the Ukrainian grandmother battalion is leading from the front. This is psy-ops targeted for the US audience.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 24 Feb 2022 22:33

World leaders divided on whether to eject Russia from Swift payment system

Western leaders are split on whether Russia should be ejected from the Swift international payments system, a move that would deliver a heavy blow to the country’s banks and its ability to trade beyond its borders.

Boris Johnson, the UK prime minister, is pushing “very hard” to remove Russia. However, Olaf Scholz, German chancellor, warned on Thursday that his country would not support such a dramatic move and neither would the EU, according to officials close to sanctions negotiations.

Basically the EU says that SWIFT and Russian oil and gas exports are off the sanctions table.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 24 Feb 2022 22:33

sudhan wrote:Multiple sources close to Ukrainian govt claim 18+ x IL76s heading for Kiev. Looks like bear plan to take the capital and overthrow the govt. This means UKR's AD system has been rendered ineffective So that means their 50+ Fighters are either useless or destroyed and their S300s taken out..

That.. is way more than what I thought would be the Bear's game plan.. make a lightning quick dash to the west and cut off Ukraine's access to the Black sea and consolidate the Ethinically Russian areas. Not sure how Vald's end game would look like..

of course, AA will have been taken out in the very first hour. And that was totally anticipated.

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 24 Feb 2022 22:38

'Ukraine is on their own.'

Ex-US Army officer Daniel L. Davis warns no American forces will be involved in the conflict in Ukraine following an invasion by Russian forces.

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/14967464 ... HAwcUpAAAA

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 24 Feb 2022 22:38

sudhan wrote:Multiple sources close to Ukrainian govt claim 18+ x IL76s heading for Kiev. Looks like bear plan to take the capital and overthrow the govt. This means UKR's AD system has been rendered ineffective So that means their 50+ Fighters are either useless or destroyed and their S300s taken out..

That.. is way more than what I thought would be the Bear's game plan.. make a lightning quick dash to the west and cut off Ukraine's access to the Black sea and consolidate the Ethinically Russian areas. Not sure how Vald's end game would look like..

Looks like Roos has taken the airport hours back.. in the process of securing the perimeter. The Ukrainans should try and damage the runway asap or the Russians will have a node for their air bridge..

Source

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 24 Feb 2022 22:44

Finland will become a NATO member now. Ukraine will get enough attention and could even become MNNA in some form or the other.

China will bring Russia into deeper embrace and Russia will become the junior partner without any say or choice. Russia will also be forced to dance to Chinese tunes... whether they like it or not. This is perhaps the day from where Russian interests and Indian interests wont necessarily align as China becomes more important. Russia as it is as been moving slowly away from our orbit or us from theirs... now this will eventually hasten the distance between us.

John · Post by **John** » 24 Feb 2022 22:44

Russian forces beaten back in Kharkiv
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ ... r_kharkiv/

achy · Post by **achy** » 24 Feb 2022 22:45

An interesting scenario occurred in my mind : Say Russia totally degrades ukraine's war fighting capability and then offers to retreat if 1. Ukraine will not join NATO. 2. Remains de-militarized 3. Lift all sanctions 4. Self determination in Donbas... will US/EU accept it and call truce ? I think for many in EU, they will be fine with above offer. This could be one of the exit strategy by Russia. One interesting thing is the most noise is being made by US and UK.. others are trying various level of circumvention..

williams · Post by **williams** » 24 Feb 2022 22:46

Aditya_V wrote:Well I call it, this invasion is a mistake by Putin, with lots of risks and too much to lose. His only hope is he occupies key areas of Ukraine, demands Ukraine does not join NATO, asks Crimea to be annexed to Russia to be recognized, and withdraws.

He has lost Ukraine for Russia and will only strengthen NATO.

Well, it could be but people in those areas are used to semi-dictatorship, and Rusky's don't care about winning hearts and minds. This is the old Bear's way of doing things and I am afraid it is working.

I don't see NATO deploying any hard power. This sounds more like Putin is proving that when the rubber meets the road, NATO is not going to provide the level of support to completely wean these countries out of Russian influence. He has effectively proven some of the irrelevance of NATO when it comes to influencing former Soviet states.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 24 Feb 2022 22:52

Rudradev wrote:Reminescent of our own Sam Maneckshaw's Dash to Dhaka.

Precisely that. In fact I’d just picked up GD Bakshi’s book by the same name. Will see how it goes.

John wrote:Russian forces beaten back in Kharkiv
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ ... r_kharkiv/

I don’t have a preferred side in this fight but these are early days to say who’s beaten back. I’ve seen this video on r/combatfootage (I follow it regularly) and there’s plenty videos going around for us to conclude so early basis this one that Russian forces were beaten back.

John · Post by **John** » 24 Feb 2022 22:53

Russian forces have dug into the airport by Kiev and are being supported by numerous helos

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 24 Feb 2022 22:55

John: Russian forces have dug into the airport by Kiev and are being supported by numerous helos

Where is the link for this? Are you deliberately trying to confuse folks in this thread? Anyone with an internet connection can say anything they damn well please, but we have follow known, open sources of information, to know what is happening. There is a lot of disinformation for all sides, so knowing the source helps adjust for confirmation bias.

John · Post by **John** » 24 Feb 2022 23:00

srikandan wrote:
John: Russian forces have dug into the airport by Kiev and are being supported by numerous helos
Where is the link for this? Are you deliberately trying to confuse folks in this thread? Anyone with an internet connection can say anything they damn well please, but we have follow known, open sources of information, to know what is happening. There is a lot of disinformation for all sides, so knowing the source helps adjust for confirmation bias.

CNN has reported on it but can’t get the video on that here is one from Reddit
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ ... near_kyiv/

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 24 Feb 2022 23:06

Looks like it's a regime change lite op.. lessons for India here? Wonder if India can do the same with tsp.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 24 Feb 2022 23:08

Shaktimaan wrote:An excerpt from Putin's speech declaring war on Ukraine :

"Now a few important, very important words for those who may be tempted to intervene in the ongoing events. Whoever tries to hinder us, or threaten our country or our people, should know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to consequences that you have never faced in your history. We are ready for any turn of events. All necessary decisions in this regard have been made. I hope that I will be heard.”
So my question to the mighty Rakshaks here : Will the US call Putin's nuclear bluff?

Nope! Russians are very different people than porkis.

They mean what they say.

RS 28 Sarmats with 15 MIRVs are probably fueled up already and Borei are trigger ready to unleash their 16 x RSM 56 Bulava SLBMs with 6 MIRVs each to rain death upon sole superpower.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 24 Feb 2022 23:09

Russia, Ukraine and airports have a thing going, Jeez.

Anyone remember that little affair (aka vicious fight) at Donetsk airport?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_ ... sk_Airport

Anant · Post by **Anant** » 24 Feb 2022 23:11

Manish_Sharma wrote:
Shaktimaan wrote:An excerpt from Putin's speech declaring war on Ukraine :

So my question to the mighty Rakshaks here : Will the US call Putin's nuclear bluff?
Nope! Russians are very different people than porkis.

They mean what they say.

RS 28 Sarmats with 15 MIRVs are probably fueled up already and Borei are trigger ready to unleash their 16 x RSM 56 Bulava SLBMs with 6 MIRVs each to rain death upon sole superpower.

And we'll just sit here and eat their warheads. Tots.

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 24 Feb 2022 23:16

Anant wrote:And we'll just sit here and eat their warheads. Tots.

..We had our own idiot in Bush backed by his puppet masters..

...We, in the United States, are totally powerless....

Sirji, just so my dumb*ss understands it, could you clarify what you mean by "we" in these posts?

Indian-Americans or ..?

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 24 Feb 2022 23:16

Anant wrote: And we'll just sit here and eat their warheads. Tots.

You fire back 100. They dont care. Russia has no quality of life and US had pushed them further. You people should have left russia be rather than poking missile in their underside. You ppl in the US have lot to loose than Russia if nukes are hurled at each other. You cant kill a man already dead.