Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Atmavik wrote:
ramana wrote:Sample video in Lakhimpur

https://twitter.com/FabulasGuy/status/1 ... 82U6g&s=19

SHQ’s family is from lakhimpur , large turnout of sanghis is reported

Dilbuji .... need you

rajkumar · Post by **rajkumar** » 24 Feb 2022 03:25

BJP will loose only

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 24 Feb 2022 10:16

No one other than Dilbuji has a right to do dhothi shivers.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 24 Feb 2022 11:51

BJP has ruled UP for 5 years

Journalists roaming on ground in UP demanding to know why streets of UP are not paved with gold.

Liberals have ruled Bengal for 70 years.

Not one journalist in Bengal dared to ask what is the economic situation there.

That is liberal privilege.

https://twitter.com/AbhishBanerj/status ... g_ayA&s=19

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 24 Feb 2022 12:28

BJP will lose onlee.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 24 Feb 2022 16:20

The question seems to be whether BJP on its own cross 300 or not. A bit difficult task.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 24 Feb 2022 17:12

Yagnasri wrote:No one other than Dilbuji has a right to do dhothi shivers.

+108

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 24 Feb 2022 21:06

Yagnasri wrote:The question seems to be whether BJP on its own cross 300 or not. A bit difficult task.

Yes, it is always difficult to get a 75% majority in such a large election. But if the detailed analyses done by Shawn Jay and others are on the money (i.e. average 45 seats to BJP in each phase), then the party will cross 300 on its own again.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 24 Feb 2022 21:07

chetak wrote:
Yagnasri wrote:No one other than Dilbuji has a right to do dhothi shivers.
+108

I second that. Other unauthentic anti-jinx attempts may have a "cancellation" effect on the original one.

Najunamar · Post by **Najunamar** » 24 Feb 2022 21:11

May be time to get a dhoti shiver icon? Dilbuji please continue your excellent service....

Any analysis of the urban local body elections in TN? We have BJP improving vote share as well as getting 1 entire panchayat (Eraniel in Kanyakumari district) for the first time. Hope this augurs a better showing in GE2024.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 24 Feb 2022 21:17

KL Dubey wrote:
Yagnasri wrote:The question seems to be whether BJP on its own cross 300 or not. A bit difficult task.
Yes, it is always difficult to get a 75% majority in such a large election. But if the detailed analyses done by Shawn Jay and others are on the money (i.e. average 45 seats to BJP in each phase), then the party will cross 300 on its own again.

who is this Shawn Jay. some details would be appreciated onlee.

TIA

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 24 Feb 2022 21:24

https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/ ... 59310.html
In UP polls, the BJP has a clear edge

Rajdeep Pidi

Uttar Pradesh (UP)’s Ayodhya, the shopkeepers are upset. Their shops will be demolished to widen the road as part of a renovation design. Who will you vote for, I ask them. “Vote toh BJP [Bharatiya Janata Party] ko padega, without Modi-ji and Yogi-ji, there would be no Ram Temple. Aastha [faith] bhi important hai!” is the telling response.

they know it's good for Ayodhya. But they are communal people

In a village near Kanpur, farmers from the Kurmi community are complaining about rising diesel prices and the stray cattle menace, but indicate that their vote is with BJP. “Yogi-ji’s government is giving us free ration for months now,” is their reasoning. Not surprisingly, the ration packets carry pictures of chief minister (CM) Yogi Adityanath and Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi.

Switch to urban Lucknow where the city’s youth is hanging out on a food street. Many of them are troubled by the lack of jobs. So, who will they vote for? “I would like to give the Yogi government one more chance, at least women’s security is now better, and I can move around after 7 pm,” says a software engineer.

why do they need security? Akhilesh and his gangs can rape/harass ... But do you vote for this kind of stupidity?

While crisscrossing the Awadh belt of central UP, the country’s most populous and politically influential state remains a puzzling bundle of contradictions.

This isn’t the turbulent 1990s where caste and community identity “wars” were fought with frenetic zeal. There is disquiet over the tough times during the pandemic, but anxiety hasn’t turned into anger

no caste wars ... what a sad news!

Second, the BJP has invested heavily in astute social engineering over the past seven years. It has built a new power structure where non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBCs) have become the party’s engine. This has led to friction at the leadership level between the upper-caste elites and the more recent entrants, but it has also meant that the party has a much wider social base than its competitors.

Third, the flagship welfarist schemes of the Modi-Yogi “double engine” have created a pro-poor image that may enable the party to tide over price rise and creeping discontent against its MLAs. For example, the PM-Kisan launched in February 2019 assures farmers an income of ₹6,000 per year over three instalments. UP has the highest number of beneficiaries (25 million): It is this vast pool of beneficiaries of cash transfers and free rations that is at the heart of the BJP’s political outreach.

they are performing ... But but ... who votes based on performance? why? why do you do that?

Fourth, the media is tightly controlled by the government’s bureaucratic machine so that no negative news can become a sustained prime time narrative, be it dead bodies floating in the Ganga during the Covid-19 second wave (2021), alleged ministerial corruption, the Hathras rape and murder case, or the Lakhimpur mowing down of protesting farmers by a VIP cavalcade

all media management ... just media management

then it's all communal ... blah blah

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 24 Feb 2022 21:48

And the BJP awarded this guy an award for best journalism just a month or two ago

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 24 Feb 2022 21:51

KL Dubey wrote:
chetak wrote:
+108
I second that. Other unauthentic anti-jinx attempts may have a "cancellation" effect on the original one.

+108

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 25 Feb 2022 01:08

chetak wrote: who is this Shawn Jay. some details would be appreciated onlee.

TIA

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7881&p=2534172&hili ... y#p2534172

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 25 Feb 2022 01:29

KL Dubey wrote:
chetak wrote: who is this Shawn Jay. some details would be appreciated onlee.

TIA
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7881&p=2534172&hili ... y#p2534172

Much obliged, Dubey ji.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 25 Feb 2022 09:39

Hope BJP will use the war in UkI also add to BJP votes. It can show that Bharat is a world power and all other people are asking for our help bla bla bla.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2022 05:52

ramana wrote:Average trunout in Punjab was 71.92%

In Majha, in 12/26 seats the turnout is below the average. Amritsar West #16 was lowest at 55.40%.
- This means about half the seats, turnout was less than average
In Doaba 17/23 seats were below average with the lowest in Jalandhar Central #35 at 60.65%
- This means more than half the seats, turnout was less than average.
In Malwa, 15/67 seats had below average with Ludhiana South #61 at 59.04%
- This means only in 1/4 of the seats, the turnout was less than the average.

Political experts say that voter turnout increases when the incumbent is thrown out. By this axiom, Malwa and Majha will see Congress defeated in many seats.
Doaba is an enigma.

And who will be the winners is for locals to say about these seats.

It seems Congress is also despondent about the results. My conclusion based on voter turnout that Congress is defeated is confirmed by their own assessment.

https://www.news18.com/amp/news/politic ... 09557.html

An internal assessment carried out by the Congress on the polling pattern in the recently concluded Punjab elections has shown that the party may get only 40 of the 117 seats in the assembly elections.

The party has been carrying out constituency-wise assessment for the past few days, after low polling percentage made predicting outcome of the polls complicated and uncertain.

It's worth posting entire article for our experts to look into.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 26 Feb 2022 05:58

Have faith on the power of Pappu. He will give sona from aalu.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2022 06:01

In the politically significant Malwa region, which had emerged as stronghold for AAP, the voter turnout was disappointing. Of the 28 assembly constituencies falling under south Malwa’s seven districts, 50% seats witnessed more than a 5% point drop in the voter turnout compared to 2017 polls.

....

But data suggests otherwise. Abohar and Ferozepur City were the only segments in the region which saw a rise in polling by 3.71% and 1.25%, respectively. Nihal Singh Wala constituency held by AAP’s Manjit Singh Bilaspur recorded a drop of 7.85%, the biggest in the region. It was followed by Ferozepur Rural, being represented by Congress’ Satkar Kaur Gehri, where 7.33% less votes were polled than last elections.

Leaders attributed it to factors ranging from disillusionment with the poll process to low participation of NRIs in the process. “The pandemic, coupled with high air fares, acted as a deterrent to these voters. During last time, a big chunk of our votes came from this segment," said a senior AAP leader.

I didn't know the voter turnout in the AAP dominant seats also fell. It indcates they also, did not get the mandate.

It will be like J&K in 2014.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 26 Feb 2022 06:14

NDTV reporter gets smashed on live TV.

Seems like the result will be a hung assembly. BJP might do better in this 3 way fight

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 26 Feb 2022 09:45

ramana wrote:
In the politically significant Malwa region, which had emerged as stronghold for AAP, the voter turnout was disappointing. Of the 28 assembly constituencies falling under south Malwa’s seven districts, 50% seats witnessed more than a 5% point drop in the voter turnout compared to 2017 polls.

....

But data suggests otherwise. Abohar and Ferozepur City were the only segments in the region which saw a rise in polling by 3.71% and 1.25%, respectively. Nihal Singh Wala constituency held by AAP’s Manjit Singh Bilaspur recorded a drop of 7.85%, the biggest in the region. It was followed by Ferozepur Rural, being represented by Congress’ Satkar Kaur Gehri, where 7.33% less votes were polled than last elections.

Leaders attributed it to factors ranging from disillusionment with the poll process to low participation of NRIs in the process. “The pandemic, coupled with high air fares, acted as a deterrent to these voters. During last time, a big chunk of our votes came from this segment," said a senior AAP leader.

I didn't know the voter turnout in the AAP dominant seats also fell. It indcates they also, did not get the mandate.

It will be like J&K in 2014.

All these US/Canadian NRIs did not travel this year due to Covid.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 26 Feb 2022 10:51

Uttarakhand: for various reasons (no I’m not a political consultant) I’ve been quite engaged in the assembly elections. And after the voting ended some days ago, it’s strange how both BJP and INC are genuinely confident of winning. This is the private response not from random people but from senior (and reasonable!) folk on both sides.

I did an assembly by assembly discussion and for 70 percent of the seats both sides claimed they were winning. INC is internally claiming 40-50 seats out of 70, as is the BJP!

Unless one side is suffering from grand delusion, can’t make sense of it. Only other explanation is that this time the margin of victory could be so small in the individual assemblies (500-2000 votes) that right now now one has a clue.

This much I can say - an INC loss will be a staggering blow to the long term future of that party in Uttarakhand. Because if they can’t win this time when there’s so much of anti-incumbency, they never will. And you will then probably see real disintegration of the local organisation and leadership.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2022 12:58

Most predictions say UKD is narrow margins

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 26 Feb 2022 13:20

ramana wrote:Most predictions say UKD is narrow margins

Sure it’s a possibility. But my main points were thay the parties are thinking very differently, and also the narrow margins to also watch was not only difference of seats but also average margin of victory )how many votes did the candidate win by) in an assembly.

We shall see. But this is the first time in my experience that there’s such a disconnect. Usually the political types know when they’re winning or losing. This time they’re all equally in the air it seems.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 26 Feb 2022 21:07

It’s sad BJP never found a strong leader in UKD. Maybe they should make Yogi a joint CM given that he’s originally from UKD

.

Devabhoomi needs a yogi!

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 26 Feb 2022 22:19

vimal wrote:It’s sad BJP never found a strong leader in UKD. Maybe they should make Yogi a joint CM given that he’s originally from UKD .
Devabhoomi needs a yogi!

True Devbhoomi needs a Yogi. BC Khanduri was a stalwart and did very well in NDA1 cabinet. Not sure why he was removed as CM. BJP tried to do damage control towards the end and brought him back as CM. But it was too late. Dhami does not inspire much confidence. The one good thing he did was keep Govt hands away from Char Dhaam.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 26 Feb 2022 22:27

Yagnasri wrote:The question seems to be whether BJP on its own cross 300 or not. A bit difficult task.

It is amazing that we are talking 300+ again. The mood was very bad after 4th phase with voting percentage at 60% or lower in most places.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 26 Feb 2022 22:40

Nothing is clear until the exit poll comes out. BJP has historically done well when the voter turnout has been high. I am perplexed why nearly 40% of UP voters decided to stay away from the polls this time when there is so much at stake. One reason could be the migrant workers who were the most impacted during covid decided not to travel back to UP this time, the more simpler explanation is the usual complacency.

Uttarakhand is INC's to lose, i'd be very very surprised if BJP comes close. The last 2 times BJP has been in power in the state, they have gone through 6 CMs in total !

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 26 Feb 2022 23:34

Santosh wrote:
vimal wrote:It’s sad BJP never found a strong leader in UKD. Maybe they should make Yogi a joint CM given that he’s originally from UKD .
Devabhoomi needs a yogi!
True Devbhoomi needs a Yogi. BC Khanduri was a stalwart and did very well in NDA1 cabinet. Not sure why he was removed as CM. BJP tried to do damage control towards the end and brought him back as CM. But it was too late. Dhami does not inspire much confidence. The one good thing he did was keep Govt hands away from Char Dhaam.

BC Khandurie was the last hope IMHO for UKD. Everyone else is a joker.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 27 Feb 2022 02:56

vimal wrote:
Santosh wrote: True Devbhoomi needs a Yogi. BC Khanduri was a stalwart and did very well in NDA1 cabinet. Not sure why he was removed as CM. BJP tried to do damage control towards the end and brought him back as CM. But it was too late. Dhami does not inspire much confidence. The one good thing he did was keep Govt hands away from Char Dhaam.
BC Khandurie was the last hope IMHO for UKD. Everyone else is a joker.

why was BC Khandurie removed then and also his son joined the congis

black lentils onlee

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 27 Feb 2022 03:34

^^ BC Khandurie was removed cause he used to work hard and drive others to work harder like a typical fauji. He would do random inspections of government offices which made him a hated man in babu circles. Old timer RSS workers like Nishank hated Khandurie for his direct behaviour and caste equation. Kandurie is a brahmin but the Gadwali society has a stronger thakur/rajput presence.

I remember, once he was ousted many road projects lay half-done for years due to lack to interest. Even the trees that were cut down in the way to airport were left in that state for many years. Its only recently that a lot of these projects were completed after Modi and Gadkari kicked the local leadership in the nuts.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Feb 2022 04:21

I always used to look forward to his Parliamentary Committee annual reports on MoD.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 27 Feb 2022 09:29

ramana wrote:I always used to look forward to his Parliamentary Committee annual reports on MoD.

It was the last report that cost him his job as head of MoD parliamentary committee. It was on defence preparedness and his stance led him to being fired - I believe the first chairman to be fired since independence.

On a general note local BJP leadership has messed up the significant advantages natural they have in Uttarakhand . The second line leadership has failed to take over. Khanduri is retired, Koshiyari shunted off as governor. Nishank has always had significant corruption charges against him, and then perceive to have failed dismally at the centre in HRD/ Education. So there is no one around whom the party can gather and project to the public as a natural worthy leader.

Meanwhile among the new lot - ex.CM Trivendra Rawat made himself highly unpopular, next ex- CM Tirath Rawat is regarded as a humble person but incompetent (he was removed from the office of CM in weeks). The current CM Dhami - the jury’s still out. There is no one yet of the stature of the previous generation (Khanduri is still revered, Koshyari respected). Meanwhile there have been significant charges of corruption laid at the doors of current key leaders.

Even so the party’s sanghatan / organisation in the state remains formidable and Modiji’s personal charisma among women may well be a critical factor. We’ll see soon enough. Meanwhile as I said - both parties internally think they’re winning big time.

Edit: In concluding the above, here’s a long running joke that’s told by people in Uttarakhand on the local scene- BJP, a party without leaders and the INC, all leaders without a party.