India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 28 Feb 2022 09:08

@aharam

Seems that the main point in your last post is that the current situation belongs to what you are labeling a “second class” of decisions which require that values trump interests.

That seems like a theoretical view, with the theory being mentioned by name “second class” but not really stated and spelled out. It’s just something you are blandly asserting, rather than making the effort to present a credible and cogent argument. For instance,

* what distinguishes these values-over-interests situations from normal interests-only situations?

* are there any historical instances of countries making such decisions and winning?

* how do you know that the current situation is, or will turn out to be, one of those situations? What is your evidence? I can show counter-evidence that the US is just fine with India voting as per its interests, while expressing the right sentiments.

You want India to sacrifice its interests for the sake of shared values, whose shared nature is poorly supported in your posts. You are calling for a radical change in the way foreign policy is done, merely on your say-so, without any supporting evidence or cogent argument.

If people feel that you as an NRI are trying to impose a particular viewpoint on India, which is detached from resident Indian realities, it’s because of this absence of substantiation for a recommendation that requires a very heavy burden of proof on your part.

I am an NRI too, and I have no difficulty in understanding that if I presume to offer radical advice to my motherland, I would have to put in a lot of work to make sure that my advice is meaningful, and the risks & benefits are spelled out. Failing which, I would just play a supportive role, trusting to the wisdom of my motherland.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 28 Feb 2022 09:42

aharam wrote:The tracking point I was making is not a strawman argument.Cheers
Aharam

What tracking point and what strawman argument?
I don't understand this tracking point. What does it meenu, saar? aahaaram is food???

Cheers
Vayutuvan

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 28 Feb 2022 09:46

@aharam gaaru

This is my last para. I am not trying to pontificate, but if this is felt as so, I will stop.

Pontificate away saar. Please don't stop. I am reminded of Sound of Music stop but don't stop

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 28 Feb 2022 09:50

haram bhai, take a break

aharam · Post by **aharam** » 28 Feb 2022 10:39

Vayutuvan wrote:
aharam wrote:The tracking point I was making is not a strawman argument.Cheers
Aharam
What tracking point and what strawman argument?
I don't understand this tracking point. What does it meenu, saar? aahaaram is food???

Cheers
Vayutuvan

Hi,
That part was about sub sea asset tracking information on Chinese vessels that US/EU is very good at and that was available during the Galwan clashes period and since then. I believe Rakesh and I had crossed wires there - we agreed on who is useful for intelligence, and thus disagreement seemed like a straw man argument. Where the difference lay is in the perception of whether that intelligence will continue to be available.

You are indeed right - aahaaram is food, aharam is village or community - and I am from a particular tiny aharam that has been around for millennia.

@Vimal from the post above. My mother is from UP, father from an aharam, I was born in Vrindavan, and speak Braj and Urdu. Your lack of comprehension between Tamil and Arabic, from which haraam comes into Urdu, and then without the right spelling in Arabic doesn’t bode well for your implied insult. Let’s argue honestly, no slurs please - it doesn’t become what Vimal means either.

aharam · Post by **aharam** » 28 Feb 2022 11:29

Seems that the main point in your last post is that the current situation belongs to what you are labeling a “second class” of decisions which require that values trump interests.

That seems like a theoretical view, with the theory being mentioned by name “second class” but not really stated and spelled out. It’s just something you are blandly asserting, rather than making the effort to present a credible and cogent argument. For instance,

* what distinguishes these values-over-interests situations from normal interests-only situations?

Thank you for a set of discussion terms. And more importantly, thanks for classifying it the way you did - I didn’t see that distinction between the situations as clearly as you put it. I will attempt to answer them as honestly as I can. You are indeed right, this is a theoretical argument - I have no crystal ball nor claim to be a soothsayer here, but I hope to show I am not blandly asserting it - my first example in the previous post was Germany doing a major shift into arming combatants and pumping 100B into their military, which if anything should shake Russia. EU has been asleep for a long time, and this is a pretty big shift. This will also have the secondary effect of raising EU economies from military spending, that will thankfully not go to China. And the tertiary effect is that US got what it wanted for decades - NATO pulling more of the spending weight leaving it more cash for dominance platforms.

The western system is based on a basic premise that countries should not attack other sovereign nations. Even China faithfully parrots this, and is having a hard time arguing both ways. This is the values over interest situations that differ from normal interests situation. It is the red line - autocratic regimes are fine, standard national interest mechanisms work for dealing with them, but if they forcefully expand into a sovereign nation that really wants to remain democratic, then it becomes a values over interests situation. Such nations will fight, because its citizens in many cases have been under autocratic regimes and no longer wish to be so. Look at the size and scale of the citizens demonstrations supporting Ukraine across EU - that is values over interests. It is not all info war, although there is enough of that.

* are there any historical instances of countries making such decisions and winning?

Yes, most EU nations have done this. Their interest historically has been strong militaries and millennia long feuds. Yet, they gave it up for a long time. My belief, and this is just mine, is that EU is going to chart its own course militarily and be another pole because they see as well that US alone is incapable after 2 decades of war to continue to do so. No amount of explaining this to EU to get them to understand the drain on US worked, till Putin united them.

* how do you know that the current situation is, or will turn out to be, one of those situations? What is your evidence? I can show counter-evidence that the US is just fine with India voting as per its interests, while expressing the right sentiments.

I don’t and neither I hope I am pretending to. All I am saying is that I believe this is an inflexion point in history. Its repercussion will be felt for months and years, and yet going through it, some things are apparent. This is primarily a citizen values based argument across EU and the US. In my humble opinion, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has done more for unifying the US than anything else - there is strong bipartisan support and Trump’s praise of Putin’s strategy is ringing a bit hollow and has little citizen support - US has always liked the underdog and Ukraine unlike the Iraqi military under Saddam or Afg puppet government, is actually fighting to save one guy in Kyiv, who is rising to the expectations placed on him. The same event has galvanized EU into doing things that their country’s charter such as Germany had protections against, and this is the momentum of citizenry. When history is being made across EU, would you not agree that something more fundamental is at stake.

US diplomacy will make the right noises about understanding India’s interest based position, but it does not change reality. There will be much more emphasis on CAATSA and its pressure comes from voters who will not understand interest arguments - as an NRI you know the level of citizen sophistication here in the US. This is the difference - pressure on values based interests comes from the populace of the country and democratic nations have to respond to it. Interest based arguments are handled by state departments and diplomats.

The citizenry do not understand sophisticated interest based arguments - first reaction is gut, and if they do and it violates their sense of the accepted norms of world order, they ignore it - the apt word here is “mathlabi”. On interest based dilemmas those are accepted, as long as basic sense of order is not violated.

I am not offering any advice to anyone - this is a discussion forum and as far as I know, the foreign ministry of India is not cribbing notes from here. I am merely making observations with what evidence I can provide. As I keep repeating, this is a major point in history and its repercussions will be felt long after and I have no crystal ball, just educated guesses based on what I see.

The general assembly will show what the world thinks of the war - and my belief is that it is values based interest - population of countries don’t matter here, the numbers of countries do, since they show disparate systems agreeing on values. The era of autocratic regimes exercising arbitrary authority to redraw borders is over. India’s vote, while completely justified given its long relationship with Russia goes against what I believe the critical mass of talks in the general assembly will be. To the US and the West, China is rapidly becoming a basket case with Hong Kong and Uyghurs issues that are far worse than any complaints they have on Kashmir. India shouldn’t be in the same equivalence class as China - it doesn’t help when China as a strategic competitor.

Cheers
Aharam

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 28 Feb 2022 11:51

From what I can see, no one in Bharat (and even maybe in China) are comfortable with the actions taken by Russians. But we have a certain empathy for that. Add the long-standing relationship and the past voting record ( and possible future help) of the Russians resulted in our stance in UN SC.

On the part of the West, the past few years were spent spreading hate on Russians for no reason. The entire talk of Putin interfering in the elections etc drama played and even the Trucker agitation in Canada is blamed on Putin. They did not try to understand why Russians are complaining about NATO expansion right to the borders of the Russian Federation. Now talk of Putin being Hitler and Sudetenland and will not help is reaching any agreement and saving UKI. Even someone like Tulsi Gabard talks about peace or tried to talk some sense branded as traitor almost immediately. So there are no alternative views in any MSM and even SM entities. So much for the democracy of the West.

The reality is the US is now in the control of the Neo-Cons bent on doing whatever they feel like and they like to hate Putin no matter what.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 28 Feb 2022 12:46

Yagnasri wrote:

The reality is the US is now in the control of the Neo-Cons bent on doing whatever they feel like and they like to hate Putin no matter what.

If the Neo cons had any brains they would be taking a step back seeing what PRC was turing into.

But they didn't.

They are so focused on Putin that they don't mind benefiting PRC.

In fact every action from United States Neo cons post Trump elections seems designed to help PRC. With consistency which leaves only one conclusion in my mind.

United States Deep State is PRC stooge.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 28 Feb 2022 15:00

At the outset, let me apologize for going way back to your first post on this topic - these questions have been nibbling my mind as I went through the subsequent discussions.

aharam wrote:This, not stupid GWB and Iraq is a defining moment - do the right thing.

What is the right thing? Who decides it? Is is an absolute expectation set in stone for all situations? I hope you are getting my drift?

aharam wrote:If India is going to relinquish a strategic partner for a moral reason, there is no way, it should take a secondary position.

Is there a precedent for an equal partner to emerge in the current US-led world order? Assuming there is none, what makes you think the US will make an exception for India?

aharam wrote:Shared values do not depend on skin color - fix this stupidity and recognize where there are other systems like India with far greater diversity, economic growth and yet commonality than you can imagine. It enables American relevance into the future.

This is the most curious prescription - how exactly do you suggest this should be fixed? And by whom?

aharam wrote:The second part is Indian diplomats need to make clear they will pursue an independent foreign policy from the West with no expectation of shared votes. India cannot lose the moral high ground, lest we forget the impact it has always had in Indian society. Unless the Western alliance can fundamentally come to terms with India on these values, it would be a bloody bad lost opportunity that is a relic of colonialism.

In principle, agreed. But what exactly is India's role in shaping this outcome? Do we vote first, and wait for it to change, or wait for it to change and vote (along with the west) later? And how long should we wait - by my reckoning, we have been waiting for 75 years and counting.

aharam wrote:I have lived outside the country for a while now, and can see things that are a product of my experiences. Indians have goodwill around the globe and in any strategic situation affecting India's security, game theory or otherwise, we can expect support only from those with whom we have shared affinity of government and its purpose - if India's loses the moral high ground, there is no amount of transactional behaviour that improves its security.

This is an oft-repeated point, especially by US-based NRIs. I'd know - I too had lived more a decade as an NRI in the US - yes, there is plenty of goodwill toward Indians among most Americans, but not once did I get a sense that the USG policy was in line with that. If anything, my constant observation had been that Americans and Indians get along very well personally, but their governments don't. Invariably because of some beltway ayatollah shouting about some issue from some pulpit. And no, this was not a post-2014 thing either.

Be that as it may, let's talk about specifics: what did the US do with this goodwill when India went through a debilitating second Covid wave? Anything beyond statements like "it's in the interest of the world to see all Americans vaccinated first", or images of funeral pyres in the front page of US newspapers of record alleging mass suppression of Covid deaths, or deny essential ingredients (Covaxin's adjuvant and other supply chain components were blocked and stayed that way till Bharat Biotech found an indigenous partner), or, as some allege, influence WHO to delay approval for the same? Did all that goodwill evaporate all of a sudden last year? And this is not even in a sphere of any competition, but a worldwide pandemic that was impacting every single country. The rest of the west didn't cover itself in glory either - UK's approval for only UK-made Covishield vaccines while denying the same to Indian made (same) vaccines, and the EU's fiasco with its Green Pass based on similar criteria had to be modified after India read them the riot act. And no, sending some ventilators duly photographed by media outlets don't count - for decades we have been receiving aid that we don't want, and in this instance, we only needed the supply chains to hold to the contracts.

If this is the level of support we can expect for a worldwide health situation, pardon my skepticism about expecting some critical military help during a future conflict. I don't see it happening. Not just on goodwill. If it aligns with the west's interests, it will happen, otherwise it won't. Goodwill has no role to play here. If it did, neither would the Americans have flown in supplies in '62 after a prior decade of Nehruvian hectoring, nor would the USS Enterprise have entered our bay to threaten us just a decade later. Which of these acts was based on goodwill?

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 28 Feb 2022 15:24

Aharam ji
It appears to me that there are a few basic blocks in your posts
1. this desire to see India adhere to some set of (universal?!) values that will make it look good in the eyes of the West
2. The implicit assumption that such looking good will somehow benefit India in the long run is used as a justification for 1.
3. If not in good terms with the West, India can't feed/cloth and more recently defend itself.

Imperfect as they were, Indian leaders since decades have called the bluff on the 3 points above which led to the non-aligned stance and movement and here we are still alive and kicking ass in the 21st century.

Now you come along and rehash the same long debunked precepts. I can only attribute your stance to to a melange of déconnexion from India's past and present, and not enough rooted in the adopted land's past and the mindset that drives it's present. Neither here nor there, which a lot of NRIs feel everyday, moi inclus.

What seems to help is not use a western lens of "values" to judge the successes/failures, ambitions and actions of contemporary India. It's not easy. Some stalwarts here have gone further on that road than most. Suggest you read, ask questions and understand a bit more for a while than pontificate or theorize with dare I say superficial grasp of a complex subject. Cheers!

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 28 Feb 2022 15:32

The most annoying aspect of this Ukrainian mess is the pontification from multiple sources about the loss of moral high ground.

For example, https://theprint.in/opinion/indias-abst ... ld/851534/

The same piece of $ hits have been telling us that Indian democracy is flawed for the last so many years.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 28 Feb 2022 16:14

The same people would have said India is sacrificing time tested friend Russia for unreliable west if we had voted yes on the resolution.

They don't seem to realise how far they are from popular Indian opinion and their own fast approaching irrelevance

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 28 Feb 2022 16:24

Pratyush wrote:The most annoying aspect of this Ukrainian mess is the pontification from multiple sources about the loss of moral high ground.

For example, https://theprint.in/opinion/indias-abst ... ld/851534/

The same piece of $ hits have been telling us that Indian democracy is flawed for the last so many years.

Not just "Moral high ground". These twerps, Stephen Biegun & Anja Manuel, suggest that India (by abstaining) has risked losing *its "democratic stature before the world".*

We need to understand, and remember always, the perversity of what's being foisted on us here. It's not merely gaslighting (a trick of making the target doubt their own objectivity) but Orwellisation.

The word "democratic", apparently, doesn't mean what you always thought it meant. Nothing to do with adult franchise and regular elections for governmental office. It means the obligation to line up behind the gang-bang-Russia brigade without asking too many questions. And, it's our own fault that we didn't already know that.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 28 Feb 2022 16:56

Just like "secular" certification, now there is a "democracy" certification from the West. Particularly Anglo Saxon world. Remember the same Democracy was prevented from getting Cryogenic engines from the US and the effort was led by non-other than Biden himself then.

https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2020/ ... erous.html

https://www.wionews.com/india-news/when ... mme-415587

https://tfipost.com/2020/10/back-in-199 ... programme/

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Feb 2022 21:22

Yagnasri wrote:From what I can see, no one in Bharat (and even maybe in China) are comfortable with the actions taken by Russians. But we have a certain empathy for that. Add the long-standing relationship and the past voting record ( and possible future help) of the Russians resulted in our stance in UN SC.

On the part of the West, the past few years were spent spreading hate on Russians for no reason. The entire talk of Putin interfering in the elections etc drama played and even the Trucker agitation in Canada is blamed on Putin. They did not try to understand why Russians are complaining about NATO expansion right to the borders of the Russian Federation. Now talk of Putin being Hitler and Sudetenland and will not help is reaching any agreement and saving UKI. Even someone like Tulsi Gabard talks about peace or tried to talk some sense branded as traitor almost immediately. So there are no alternative views in any MSM and even SM entities. So much for the democracy of the West.

The reality is the US is now in the control of the Neo-Cons bent on doing whatever they feel like and they like to hate Putin no matter what.

This is always the dilemma of India- split mind.
In such cases BG says to "do the right thing or duty" and others like KS garu say to follow the interests and be realistic.

Facts:
1) India has a border issue with China.
2) The US has supported rising China and didn't care if India is damaged. And the same time wants India to check China while sanctioning India! This is secondary help to China.
3) Russia has a declining population and potential for losing Siberia etc to China.
4) Russia needs China to take on the US while China wants to keep India down.
5) Same time Russia needs India to take on China for 4). Hence the S-400 sales.

Hence India needs to support Russia for 5).

Looking at things bilateral leads to myopia.
In fact, it is a four-person game where the possibilities are too numerous.
The game is between US, China, Russia, and India.
You can have two-person and three-person sub-games going on.
However, it's the four-person game and maximum expected utility for India in this larger game that should drive Indian decision.

Not the bokwas psy-ops op-eds.

So have to be guided by Indian interests.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 28 Feb 2022 21:27

this is the message out of russia

It's something that putin would surely say

he's already rattled his nuclear saber.

“A couple of words for those who would be tempted to intervene.

Russia will respond immediately and you will have consequences that you never have had before in your history.”

Putin warns that he will bring war to their soil if any country interferes.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Feb 2022 21:37

Draw a quadrilateral or square and write down the four countries at each corner respectively.
Can be more sophisticated by drawing a quadrilateral with sides representing composite power.
Under each country write down the pros cons wrt Indian interests. Would put Russia and India at the same level.
Remember in the end it's about India's autonomy.
Now tell us what you found?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Feb 2022 21:57

The problem of Indian think tanks is they are dominated by Communists who are no where in the world scene or by US experts.
There are hardly any who think in Indian point of view.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 01 Mar 2022 00:14

Yagnasri wrote:From what I can see, no one in Bharat (and even maybe in China) are comfortable with the actions taken by Russians. But we have a certain empathy for that. Add the long-standing relationship and the past voting record ( and possible future help) of the Russians resulted in our stance in UN SC.

To explain the empathy for myself - that Russia/Putin phrased this conflict in terms of a civil war gives me pause. Staying neutral is the correct choice if it is truly a civil war between the Europeans/Russian origin peoples. Britian and France cannot be neutral being European powers. The US is unfortunately involved because of the security architecture set up post the world wars..

The UN issue would matter perhaps if India was a permanent member of the SC and was expected to be a net provider of security worldwide. As it is, the UN is set up to allow a permanent member the widest latitude of action. The net improvement from an Indian perspective this time round is that the Indian army will not be expected to fight an European war.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 01 Mar 2022 01:57

Aharam, when quoting please put the name of the poster whom you are quoting. It is easy for other readers to follow. If that code is difficult to put in, then it would be best if you just start off your reply with @NameofPoster.

Your cooperation in this matter is appreciated. Thank You.

aharam wrote:The tracking point I was making is not a strawman argument. There is a current assumption that US/West will continue to provide it, because it is in their national interest - I hope to show that this is not true. The world order is changing - this was a historical moment with a choice. US has other alternatives to build out a defense network that is fully capable and excludes India - an outcome that I am against. Assuming the same level of Chinese movement intel sharing as during the period surrounding Galwan clashes is no longer a certainty. The most useful stick that the US will use is this - India US should not devolve to such a transactional relationship, because things like intelligence become US gifts subject to sanctions. That whole nonsense has to stop. The alternative source for such intelligence would have been Russia, which as we agree is largely irrelevant.

You are trying to convert this UN vote into a historical moment, to prove a point which does not exist.

If the US has other alternatives to build a defense network that is fully capable and excludes India, then by all the means the US should adopt that path. I like how you just slid that the "threat" in there. Others have tried that strategy, but it has never worked. Nice try though. But since the US lacks a moral spine (other than looking out for her own self interest) it is clearly in the interest of the United States to continue to engage India to partner with her. As mentioned earlier, the trade that flows out of the South China Sea is vital to the global economy of which the US is the leader (the largest economy). It is therefore in the interest of the United States to monitor and track all Chinese naval assets in the South China Sea (and beyond) and share that valuable information with other nations that push back on Chinese expansionism. Russia on the other hand, has more pressing concerns, than to focus on what the Chinese do in the South China Sea. Why go to Russia, when America is already doing the work!

An abstention vote from India in the UN is not going to change that fact. It is simple economics for the US. That is the only language America understands really. Loyalty, morality, freedom, democracy, rules based order, etc is nice to give in State of the Union speeches from the podium at the US House of Representatives. But money and power is the only language that the US understands. This notion that the US will be less willing to share intelligence on Chinese naval assets - because of one abstention vote by India in the UN - does not pass the smell test. In case you are unaware, a US Navy P-8A crew (among other US naval assets) has just arrived in India as part of Exercise Milan 2022.

But since India was "morally" corrupt in her abstention vote in the UN, perhaps President Biden should call up Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and his SECNAV and request to have those US naval assets turn back from that naval exercise. Also, it would be a good idea for the US to cancel her foundational agreements that she has signed with India. They are GSOMIA, LSA, BECA and CISMOA. Also no more Malabar exercises between the two countries. How much of these do you believe will actually be accomplished? Because if not a single one of these can be overturned by the US, then it is America that is hypocritical in siding with a nation that made an abstention vote in the United Nations over Ukraine.

Demographically, America is losing the war at home. And when I say America, I am referring to the White Anglo Saxon Protestant (WASP). The key words in that are White Anglo Saxon, as Christianity is just a crutch that the White Anglo Saxon uses to justify his behaviour at home and around the world. They are demographically dying and they are being replaced in alarmingly large numbers by other less desirables (which is what WASPs privately address them as) i.e. the Han race, South Asians, South East Asians, Arabs, Africans, etc. And that reality is downright scary for the WASP and was used to great effect (the Angry White Man) by Donald Trump in the 2016 Presidential Election. In fact, Donald Trump further crystallized that idea, when he infamously said that why America would want immigrants from shithole countries such as Haiti and El Salvador and that the U.S. should have more people coming in from places like Norway. That is hilarious because people in Norway live a far better quality of life, than they ever would in the United States.

It is this flawed sense of WASP superiority that guides all of America's decision making and they expect the world to just blindly follow. There was a time when that was indeed by and large followed, but all civilizations do come to an end. The US is on that path now. Every nation can see it. You yourself admitted that fact a number of times in your previous replies. So why walk in step with a country who has no morality to begin with, other than her own self interest? It would best for India to make use of the relationship that they have with the United States. But walk in step, I would prefer that India not do that. India must make her own decisions. And to equate some arm twisting from India's part by voting with the US was also not feasible.

Hypocrisy is not something new to the US. It is a tried and tested strategy that they rely on. They sanctioned Turkey for the S-400 purchase, but when it came to India....it is Republicans in the US House and the US Senate (Senator Ted Cruz is leading that charge) that are urging President Biden to grant India a CAATSA waiver. India too purchased the S-400, but yet economics comes into play. Sanction India and all of a sudden the money tap will stop towards the American MIC. Boeing is sending her F-18SH Block III in March for testing by the Indian Navy. It is all about the Benjamins. Morality lecture from an American? Naah, I am going to pass on that Sir.

When Osama Bin Laden blew two twin towers in New York, the US led a global coalition to hunt and kill the Taliban in Afghanistan. When Pakistani terrorists attacked the very seat and foundation of India's democracy on 13 December 2001 (a little over three months from 9/11), it was the US that urged India to exercise restraint in the military build up (Operation Parakram) that followed. It was because of the US, that Lt Gen Kapil Vij - the then GOC of the Indian Army's 2 Strike Corps - was forced to pull back its assets, as it was too close to the Pakistani border. The US fully knew that an Indo-Pak War would hamper the US' ability to hunt and kill the Taliban, as Pakistan was the launching base for many of the early operations against the Taliban. Moral lesson to learn from this is the H&D of a WASP has more value than the H&D of an Indian citizen.

President George Walker Bush, when addressing a Joint Session of Congress on 20 September 2001, said this, "We will pursue nations that provide aid or safe haven to terrorism. Every nation, in every region, now has a decision to make. Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists. From this day forward, any nation that continues to harbor or support terrorism will be regarded by the United States as a hostile regime." But both the Bush and Obama Administrations continued to supply arms and ammunition to Pakistan post 9/11. At that point in time, Pakistan's double speak was conveniently overlooked, because supporting a terrorist breeding ground was more important to the US' goal in Afghanistan. Another clear hypocrisy. Moral lesson to learn is that America says one thing, but does the opposite.

aharam wrote:I never said that US does not follow its own self interest or that nations don't - as most here, I have read India Way, which very lucidly puts forth its view on foreign policy. The problem is the assumption that self interest is the only guiding principle. What was that old phrase, "Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing…after they have exhausted all other possibilities." In this case, they are doing what is the "right thing" per much of the world as measured in countries - if an issue can carry the world along, it is qualitatively different from purely self interest driven decision making. The upcoming UN General Assembly vote will be much more representative of that than the legacy UNSC. India should have been a veto member of UNSC since it was the committee of the victors of WWII that fought across the globe. India did - China never fought beyond its borders - my grandfather fought in that war.

I can see that you are certainly drunk on the flawed idea of American Exceptionalism. Nice.

Allow me to finish that old phrase ---> "Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing…after they have exhausted all other possibilities...because at the end of the day, it is all about America."

A few wonderful examples of Americans doing the right thing;

* Callously spraying Agent Orange on the people of Vietnam, whose successive generations are still reeling from the effects of it.
* Invaded Iraq and Afghanistan (in the name of regime change), whose civilian population suffered the greatest brunt of the invasion.
* Nuclear testing at Bikini Atoll (whose residents were purposefully displaced).

Thank you for reminding us all of Americans doing the right thing. Where was the global outrage over any of the above? Any UN morality votes over this Sir? As mentioned earlier, it comes from upbringing. The UK was/is no different. The apple indeed does not fall too far from the tree!

This is why the western world is supposedly doing the "right thing". Do click on that link. You may not like it ---> https://twitter.com/AlanRMacLeod/status ... ndLRlOV-Hg

Nice to know that America indeed knows to do the "right" thing, when it affects the Caucasian race. But non-WASPs are not really human beings you see. After all if there was no WASP, there would have never even been something called civilization! The Egyptian and Indian civilizations were just there for time pass onlee. This flawed sense of race superiority is nothing new though. The WASP practices this strategy even at home (voting rights, segregated housing, education, access to health care, career, etc). There are sufficient problems in India to deal with that when the Prime Minister of India visits the US, he does not feel the need to lecture the US Govt on the treatment of her citizens. I long to the see the day when the reverse is equally true. Kindly spare us the pontification.

Before we discuss on how India should have voted in the UN, I would humbly suggest that you work on fixing the social and moral ills that plague the country of your residence. Please work to make America a more perfect union of states, as many American Presidents have wished for. If you are doing that, kudos and respect to you. But from what I am seeing, you have a long way to go Sir. So you need to work harder towards that goal. But I am acutely aware that is easier said than done for you. Because to the WASP, the only real American citizen is another WASP. The rest - even though they may *HOLD* US citizenship - are actually only visiting America. You would dare not venture to lecture the WASP on the treatment of his fellow non-WASP American citizen, because you will soon realize how quickly things will go south for you. So it is safer for you Sir to come to a forum and lecture India on how it should have voted. Because unlike the WASP American, Indians actually take the time to explain the reality to you. This comes from a sense of decency and morality. A set of values. The idea that your fellow human being, is actually human just like you.

aharam wrote:My personal belief is that there is a change happening that will unfold over months and years, but EU will emerge as another united military power.

Nice to have another united power! How much of that would the US entertain really?

After all there cannot be two tigers on a mountain. But ok

aharam wrote:This is not true in my humble opinion. This is an event that has galvanized the West.

Too early to call. We will see how long and how far the West will be united.

aharam wrote:I agree with you here on the timeline to hash it out - it is months longer. On the other hand, a simple understanding would have done - it is 1 page with only broad outlines. Then the US/West gets to show whether it will hold its understandings - their national interest is in raising India, and they are trying. This is the part that keeps getting missed - the West is not the enemy and neither do they view India as such. They recognize the nonsense of supporting Pak, which played the same national interest balancing act, which then forced them against US interest. That's what made them useless - Americans are very simple by typical Indian analysis.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

If there is anything that geopolitics has taught is that agreements that the US signs on cannot even be equated to a bucket of warm piss. The entire political set up in the US Congress does not foster such an environment. There have been very few agreements - which basically tie in to American self interest - that the US continues to adhere to. This "understanding" concept might pass with Kindergarten level diplomats, but India has had enough experience with the American perfidy.

Allow me to correct you Sir. The US national interest is in raising (and molding) India into the American worldview. However, there is an another worldview that exists outside of America. And that worldview is as valid and as relevant as the WASP one. To ignore one and uplift the other is not acceptable. That strategy has not gotten America very far with India. When America comes down from the high moral horse that she sits on, then we can talk.

aharam wrote:Here is my 2 paise. There is little chance that the US and EU now will not intervene in a Taiwan conflict. And China is no dummy. An invasion in the near term is off the cards - they will be hammered by everyone, economically and militarily. Russia is much better at playing the nuclear threshold game with decades more practice than China - and they are having a difficult time with getting anyone to believe their escalation ladder. Taiwan would be conventional war under nuclear overhang, and I am not too sure China will succeed, which then focuses its attention on India.

No bueno. Post Afghanistan (and now Ukraine), I would be wary of trusting the US to do anything. Why would Germany invest 100 billion Euros into national defence, when it would be better to have the US do its fighting for them? Why did Trump ask the other NATO partners to increase their contributions towards NATO? That raised alarm bells with these NATO partners. And now with Ukraine, they have realized that America will only do what is right in her interest. Now Western Europe is now united and they realize that their future lies not in relying on America, but rather in partnering amongst themselves.

China will certainly attack Taiwan, as they will India. The only thing that is stopping China now is loss of face. The concept of humiliation is something the ChiComs will never entertain. The day they achieve overwhelming advantage against Taiwan and India, Xi will unleash everything at his disposal. If the US is around to see that day, as a nation state that is, then good. But that is not a reliability that Taiwan or India can rely on any longer. Self reliance is a good thing though. These countries too need to rise without anyone telling them how it should be done.

aharam wrote:Sir, fostering convergences and managing divergences works for a class of issues, and these are broadly transactional in nature and run by the government and its national interest. NSG membership is a great example of this. In my belief there is a second class of problems, where basic principles of operation of nation states are aligned. In such problems, nations vote against national interest and in support of their principles. The current event of the war in Ukraine is such. Russia has a casus belli right to attack, because NATO has come too close to its borders and NATO is fundamentally a military anti-Russia alliance. That said, the result cannot be forced by war anymore, and if that happens, citizens protest. In any democracy, citizen sentiment trumps everything else. As example I offer, many EU nations that will suffer and Germany quite a bit with heating fuel loss - it is not in their national interest. It is in the interest of their citizenry.

Are you honestly stating that this result cannot be forced by war anymore? Really?

You are asking India to vote over an issue (led by the US) in a governing body that the US itself considered irrelevant in 2003? When the UN voted against war in Iraq, where was the moral outrage? If results cannot be forced by war, then why did the US invade Iraq in 2003? What purpose did that serve, other than ingratiate US oil companies to make billions in profit selling Iraqi oil?

I am aware of the fact that two wrongs don't make a right, but since the US itself considers the UN to be irrelevant, then why should India put any weightage over what the US (or the West) thinks about her vote in the UN? What is this dying need to get approval from the WASP? What purpose does that serve?

aharam wrote:A few pages ago, I was told I was being patronizing. And looking through the examples, it certainly appears so, and I apologize. In my defense, I was told that I would not fight even if the Gita was read to me, and many other assumptions of what my motive was. Hopefully, my posts from a decade ago would argue that is not the case. That said, the above sounds a lot like Hitopadesh for NRIs and equally patronizing wouldn't you say.

You came here and are lecturing us that India's vote in the UN was morally incorrect. BRF came to your country of residence (and to your home) to lecture you? So who is being patronizing?

aharam wrote:I am not trying to impose any worldview, merely pointing out how things are viewed differently.

Thank you for the alternate point of view. Noted. But India is mature enough to cast her vote and does not need to be second guessed over it.

aharam wrote:As example, I offer the Jewish community in the US. They are in my humble opinion, the closest to Indians in terms of arguing things logically and being confrontational about it. They look out for Israel's interest very well and that is not because they blindly support Israeli actions.

This is laughable, because this is what Israel did a few days back and then reversed course today.

Despite US request Israel refrains from co-sponsoring UNSC resolution against Russia
https://www.timesofisrael.com/despite-u ... st-russia/
26 Feb 2022

After rebuffing US at UNSC, Israel set to back General Assembly vote slamming Russia
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-le ... cial-says/
28 Feb 2022

In the middle of these two days, did you happen to visit the embassy of Israel in your country of residence and advise them of their lack of moral courage? Any chance you get an opportunity to visit the UAE embassy and advise them of the same? The morality dilemma is true for Israel & UAE, as it is for India no?

aharam wrote:As an example, I offer Trump. It is in India's national interest for Trump to be the President - Democrats have always sucked in realpolitik. As an American, Trump is a genuine disaster - his ability to whip up crowds not withstanding. He single handedly made the US a laughing stock, he lies constantly and his inability to build and retain a competent executive team is a complete failure. This is dharam sankat wouldn't you say.

Like Putin and Xi, Trump only thinks about Trump. He will gladly throw India under the bus, if that benefits him politically.

I think we need to stop focusing on what America will or will not do for India and focus more on what India can do for herself.

aharam wrote:The US is done with Bush's my way or the highway, Trump notwithstanding. It is operating in a multi-polar world. In the current conflict, it spent effort building worldwide consensus. The upcoming general assembly will likely show that.

America built worldwide consensus for invading Afghanistan and Iraq as well. Amounted to nothing, just as this vote will also amount to nothing.

America is operating in a multipolar world, with the idea of US-led military alliances. That is no longer going to work.

aharam wrote:Let's start with the first assumption - it is a short war. I question that. India is not going to capitulate just because aircraft got shot down in a week. You underestimate Indian military will Sir, and its ability to fight a ground war - 1962 never became a ground war. It will merely be considered a setback - this is not 1962. China can choose to declare a unilateral ceasefire when she thinks she is ahead, it will have no bearing on the Indian response to the ceasefire. I can easier see China capitulating due to inability to hold high altitude peaks and no experience with actual mountain warfare with India, but the converse is a long drawn out affair with Chinese supply lines over the himalayas.

You brought up the argument of rapid loss replacement. I am questioning that wisdom, not whether the loss of 36 Rafales is a setback or not.

1962 was all about a ground war. India lost that war. India lost territory, i.e. Aksai Chin. 1962 was never an air war from India's side. We can thank Nehru for that wisdom.

I push back on the assertion that it will not be a short war. OTOH, it makes ample sense for China to humiliate India as quickly as possible. Their force deployments clearly point to that. Their rocket force is overwhelmingly huge (compared to India). Their ability to rapidly insert material into a theatre of conflict outstrips that of India's. Their bomber force is equally massive and very capable. The only thing holding them back, IMVHO, is their lack of acclimatized troops for mountain warfare. That is India's only edge and to be quite honest, it is not a comforting edge. They will eventually master that as well. Once all their pieces are in play on the chess board, they will make their move and they will do it fast.

To have a long drawn out battle will result in a stalemate. And a stalemate is huge a loss of face for China, but a strategic victory for India. Same situation with Pakistan, but only in reverse. Do a quick action - destroy all front line air bases, destroy the forward deployed brigades, destroy all logistical nodes and then send in the troops, supported by their massive artillery corps. If they have mastery over the air, China will win.

aharam wrote:That does not mean there won't be reverses. The integration complexity you mention above is type training - I am familiar with it.

I am well aware you are familiar with it. I am aware of your background.

aharam wrote:Unless method has changed, and I fully acknowledge that I do not know this as it happens currently, IAF training would start with the base model training prior to country specific module installation - this was our process and we were type trained on many models. The base model training jump starts the program before the India specific aircraft is ready - more hours that actually count. The differences are typically in A2G/AA radar modes, RWR, actual comms tech (which is invisible since you dial the freq). If I am not mistaken, IAF is already trained on it and the differences are within a few days of retraining. Weapons loadout may change, but as a strike package, there is little loss of utility. And to top it all, you are underestimating IAF pilots sir - they are a lot smarter at rapid decision making than many western equivalents that operate by protocol. This is really few days work. As example, I offer current EU transfer of MIG 29's and SU25s that started hours ago. These are Warsaw pact versions from Poland, Romania, Hungary most likely and are a different type from the Soviet internal versions. That said, the Ukrainian pilots will be able to rapidly make use of the platforms.

Can a pilot who has been trained on a Mirage 2000, then asked to go do a DPSA mission in a Jaguar Darin III? An aircraft he has never flown? As you well aware, I am not referring to the basic concept of flight. I get that part. The pilot knows how to fly. But can he exploit the platform in the timeframe required? That is where the issue lies. Today's aircraft are less flying and more mission focus. The pilot has to know and master the aircraft's sensors. An IAF Mirage 2000 pilot usually trains from Hawk AJT to Mirage 2000 trainer to Mirage 2000 fighter. Some come from MiG-21 streams prior to joining the Mirage 2000 squadron. The current batch of Rafale pilots are Su-30MKI and Jaguar veterans, among other types.

The transfer of EU MiG-29s and Su-25s is really not a good example. These are vintage ex-Soviet birds that are nowhere close in terms of the sensor overload and sophistication that the Rafale and other modern Western aircraft have. So the training curve is negligible. But since you brought that example up, how effective do you believe a Ukrainian pilot (who has never flown a Rafale, Tyhpoon, Gripen E, F-15C/D/E, F-18SH or F-16 Block 50/52) would be, if he has not been given the proper training on a Western platform? How long do you think this training would take? One day? A few hours? A few minutes? A week? Two weeks? A month? Two months? How much time do the Ukrainians really have, before Putin goes scorched earth on Ukraine? To be honest, I am surprised why the Ukrainians have not been given access to these Western aircraft to date.

aharam wrote:It won't be that all 36 Rafale's are lost - but realistically, some would be and that reduces coverage. If we assume all 36 are lost, and they represent the best of our long range reach, then the MKIs are already done. This is apocryphal and still hopefully does not mean loss of country. There is much more fight in India.

This idea that Indians have much more fight in India is nice to say in a movie. It is a nice Bollywood dialogue.

When we don't have any fighter aircraft to fight with, are we going to fight the Chinese with slings and stones?

The issue is rapid loss replacement, which will be pointless in the middle of a quick and punishing war.

aharam wrote:There is a colonial mindset that says India lost to the British. It does not represent history - merely a result of divide and rule where each Indian kingdom looked out for only its interest. India was indeed invaded many times - failures which were numerous, but the invaders stayed behind. In my view, India is the land of the successful invaders - a country with a many millenia history, and has enough genetic advantages in all its terrain and a people that can fight. It is not easy to overcome India in an all out battle for literally anyone. On land, India was never a push over and now as a country that is truly unified, even less so. There is no reason to yield in a week and the more friends we have helping the better.

I am not talking about yielding. I am talking about the ability to hurt the Chinese and force them to a stalemate.

Unless India is interested in a blood bath and just mindlessly send in waves of troops to defeat the Chinese horde.

A result that will have no meaningful result in the overall outcome of the conflict.

=================================================================================

Here is something for you to think about....a nice little reminder about the concept of interests (the only moral principle).

https://twitter.com/AlanRMacLeod/status ... jGZAyvsoQQ ---> When we do it vs. when they do it.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 01 Mar 2022 02:17

Pratyush wrote:United States Deep State is PRC stooge.

Not so fast. My (not-so?)educated guess is that the game is deeper. One possibility is to remove Russian support to China in the near future. While Putin is in Ukraine, the US and NATO can "manufacture" a reason to squeeze China into shape. Many issues that China is handling improperly, viz. Uigher treatment, not being honest about Covid's airborne transmission, Hong Kong question, SCS, ..., can be used to push Xi to act hastily. In other words, accelerate his timetable to attempt to annex Taiwan.

Before that, a huge proganada war will be waged while they bring manufacturing online elsewhere including India.

The west and the US have to deal with India as an equal at least for now. It is a foregone conclusion that India would join the West if they are serious in taking Xi down. Russia under Putin would not.

The two most dangerous autocratic governments are Russia and China. NoKo has to be neutralized one way or the other.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 01 Mar 2022 02:21

Vayutuvan wrote:Rakesh ji, great reply to ahram ji.

Thank you Vayutuvan-ji

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 01 Mar 2022 02:27

Cyrano wrote:I can only attribute your stance to to a melange of déconnexion from India's past and present, ...

What @ramana ji termed as DIE - Deracinated Indian Elite.

For DIE Indian-Americans, I coined another word from DIE - DIETY - DIE Turned Yankee.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yankee

Elsewhere in the United States, it largely refers to people from the Northeastern states, but especially those with New England cultural ties, such as descendants of colonial New England settlers, wherever they live.[3] Its sense is sometimes more cultural than geographical, emphasizing the Calvinist Puritan Christian beliefs and traditions of the Congregationalists who brought their culture when they settled outside New England.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 01 Mar 2022 02:34

The new emerging Russia-China axis includes Belarus, North Korea, Iran, Syria, and Venezuela as junior members. Will Turkey join this axis? Will India remain neutral?

If we stay neutral, the Chinese could, in return, stay out of our neighborhood and make Pakistan play nice.

sohamn · Post by **sohamn** » 01 Mar 2022 04:54

^^^^ The Chinese doesn't care what our stance is on Ukraine, they will keep the pressure on India directly and indirectly until either we capitulate or we become strong enough to rebuff them.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 01 Mar 2022 06:45

@aharam ji and @Rakesh ji,

Please take a look at this report. Since it is not directly related to this thread, I am posting a pointer to the post I made in another thread on BRF.

viewtopic.php?p=2537082#p2537082

If Russia and US are working together even after the UN Security Council showdown on Ukarine, I don't see why the US would not work with India, given that India is an ally the US sorely needs for tracking.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 01 Mar 2022 07:38

Vayutuvan wrote:@aharam ji and @Rakesh ji,

Please take a look at this report. Since it is not directly related to this thread, I am posting a pointer to the post I made in another thread on BRF.

viewtopic.php?p=2537082#p2537082

If Russia and US are working together even after the UN Security Council showdown on Ukarine, I don't see why the US would not work with India, given that India is an ally the US sorely needs for tracking.

Vayutuvan-ji, India will certainly partner with the United States where its interests converge. Exercise Milan 2022, the annual Malabar exercises, the sharing of intelligence all point to that fact. The problem is - as aharam-ji elucidated - there can never be two tigers on the same mountain. No superpower can tolerate another nation to upstage her. The Cold War proved that and the ongoing Indo-China conflict is doing the same.

To avoid that scenario, the US is trying to encourage India to enter into a security alliance with her. But there is a vast philosophical divide, as both countries have different outlooks and value systems on how to sustain a superpower status. There is also the issue of one superpower (US) dying a slow and inevitable death, while another (India) is attempting to rise to and attain the status of a superpower.

Both nations have tremendous strengths, but both also have terrible weaknesses. In the midst of this brouhaha, is a dragon that is trying to push her way through. The oldest democracy in the world and the largest democracy in the world do not want to see that happen. There has to be a meeting ground between the two, but that common meeting ground has yet to be achieved. But if achieved, the US is looking at future that can be fairly bright. The Indian market is massive and India has a huge demographic advantage, that no superpower (US) or half-baked superpower (Russia, China) has. India has a significantly large population that is young and whose potential can be tapped towards measurable human advancement not just in the US and India, but globally.

But the onus lies on the United States to make a massive leap of faith and bet BIG on India. And this is crucial for this relationship to succeed. The US' and Western Europe's very survivability and future depends on it. There needs to be significant and valuable transfers of technologies in every sphere. Screwdrivergiri of F-16 is just not going to cut it. Stop with the lectures and lessons that the US believes that India needs to learn. Stop viewing India through an American lens. Step out from the encapsulated Washington DC bubble that US Senators, Congressmen and Geopolitical Analysts live in and experience & understand India. Step out from the idea that the world revolves around the United States of America. Accept the reality of multi-polar alignment. Stop listening to Brown Sahib analysts who are more Unkil than Unkil himself and have a flawed notion that their so-called Indian heritage makes them an expert on India. The reliance on that train of thought has seriously hurt US interests in India.

Every civilization has a birth, then a rise, a peak and then a slow death into oblivion. History has illustrated that, time and time again. America needs to accept the demographic reality that the United States (and Western Europe) is dying. But the West can that significantly slow down that process. The ball lies in their court and no one else's - America's technological superiority can either be forcibly handed over to China in the decades ahead or it can continue to live on with India. With who in this world does America and Western Europe want to leave her legacy with?

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 01 Mar 2022 08:29

@Rakesh sir, you are on a serious roll here

with quality bookmark worthy posts. Wish there was a way to bookmark posts...

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 01 Mar 2022 08:51

The US economic situation is in dire straights. Stimulus and high energy prices have fueled inflation and the Russia-Ukraine war only makes this worse. Inflation numbers for Feb. 2022 will be available on March 10th and will likely be 9%-10%. All energy prices in the US have gone up including electricity, natural gas (heating), and of course gasoline/diesel. The FY2022 $777.7 billion NDAA passed, but the rest of the US government is running on a continuing resolution - even as the same party has control of the executive and legislative branches. Interest rates are set to rise which will hurt home, vehicle sales and retail. Employment for jobs that pay over $20/hour has slowed as many small to medium companies are unsure of growth. Then throw in weak equity markets on top of all of this.

Given the bleak economic situation, and an upcoming election with a very unpopular US president (aggregate approval rating 40%), the US will be desperate to do anything to control inflation. This means there will be rapprochement with the Chinese to import cheap consumer goods and auto parts. This could be a big opportunity for India if some of those goods come from India, but more likely from Vietnam and other SE Asian countries.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 01 Mar 2022 09:00

Pratyush wrote:United States Deep State is PRC stooge.

This.

Recent US actions have consistently enabled and emboldened China. What better example than the shutting down of the investigation into a worldwide pandemic that originated in some Chinese lab, and returning to business as usual? Pushing Russia into a corner, and thereby into China's embrace is another example - if the US and the West had any sense, they'd have co-opted Russia* by now into a friendly understanding (or even alliance) so it can act as a bulwark against China - come to think about it, the best way to keep China tied down and not challenge US' dominance would be to encircle them from their southern border (India), northern border (Russia+Mongolia) and the seaboard (Japan+Korea). This would have complicated China's energy dependencies as their imports from Russia would always be subject to China's good behaviour and their Gulf imports would be under our Naval gaze. India would have played along with such an arrangement as it would have suited us and allowed us to focus on our development.

Instead, what we have is an open encouragement of China and Russia forming a quasi-alliance against the west - Russia's almost unlimited energy supplies and China's huge (yes, growing older) domestic market plus export surplus can combine to offer an alternative to the US led order. This is the US' war to lose, and they have started doing so, despite all the propaganda we keep hearing, and new cold war is going to begin. I mean, think about it - China can freely form such an alliance, and the US will be powerless to stop it due to a compromised establishment and economic dependence. So who is the victor?

What is India's take here? We have no reason now to cast our lot with the west, as it is only a matter of time before the current order becomes weak. Clearly, the US is on the decline in geopolitical terms - German re-arming will only hasten that process. Watch for Japan's action next**. Once the US' appetite for military action goes, other aspects will slowly follow. As Mao famously said, "power flows from the barrel of the gun". But that does not mean that we should cast our lot with China as well, as that would be out-rightly inimical to us. We should understand that we are meant to chart our own course and continue to do so. SWIFT? We have UPI and IMPS, and the India stack to ensure accessibility. Culture and civilizational values - who has more than us? Healthcare and public goods? We have demonstrated our heft through the world's largest vaccination drive entirely built upon Indian foundations. Technology? Admittedly, a work in progress, but we had loads of it in the past when our society was truly free and innovative - we have to rediscover that mojo and work toward it. Energy? We have an abundance of solar energy throughout the year, and favourable geography w.r.t. the gulf states as long as we have to import oil. Military - we have our own detergents and a formidable Naval and Space tech to protect our interests well beyond our shores, and that capability is only getting better.

So, in the words of the Gurudev, India will always ekla cholo re, and this is something our establishment seems to have internalized. Good going in the long run, but expect some short-term pinpricks as a fallout of the current shifts.

-----

* If this sounds far-fetched, look no further than WW-II. If Germany, after untold atrocities and human rights violations could be rehabilitated within the western narrative, Russia easily could have - they hardly caused any direct harm to western Europe, let alone the Americas. This is just the ghost of the Cold War and the reflexive opposition to people of a different religion (Orthodox) who can do fine by themselves if left to their devices.

** We should use this window to increase our defence spending to the same 3% of GDP - no need to worry about LKK, and in any case, which log will kahe kya (transl: who will say what?), given everyone is going to re-arm themselves?

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 01 Mar 2022 09:05

@Rakesh-ji

JFK answered that question - "With who in this world does America and Western Europe want to leave her legacy with?" - long ago. But somehow everything went sideways after Nixon/HK Sino-US entente.

If the right leadership is there in the US - current admin is not, as far as I am concerned - the relationship can go far. The only thing I am not very comfortable with is European unity. It is not good for India, IMHO. India loses the advantage of pitting one Euro tech supplier against the other. Right now there are three suppliers in EU for fighter aircraft - French, Swedish, and British.

All of this will be moot if India starts developing her own technology and platforms. I am quite optimistic that this will happen in the next two decades w/ or w/o US or EU help. A nationalistic enlightened dispensation is an absolute minimum. We have that till 2024. I dearly hope that it continues for 3 more election cycles.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 01 Mar 2022 09:18

Rakesh wrote:The oldest democracy in the world and the largest democracy in the world do not want to see that happen. There has to be a meeting ground between the two, but that common meeting ground has yet to be achieved. But if achieved, the US is looking at future that can be fairly bright. The Indian market is massive and India has a huge demographic advantage, that no superpower (US) or half-baked superpower (Russia, China) has. India has a significantly large population that is young and whose potential can be tapped towards measurable human advancement not just in the US and India, but globally.

1. The US (or Canada) are not democracies. Please don't drink the democracy Kool-Aide. The US views Indians as heathen SDREs.
2. Everything stated about India, China already has it to offer, and top of that offers high growth opportunities for shareholders in various US companies. China offers a more skilled, educated and wealthier workforce over India. The deference will be to the Chinese any day over India.

Rakesh wrote:But the onus lies on the United States to make a massive leap of faith and bet BIG on India[/b]. And this is crucial for this relationship to succeed. The US' and Western Europe's very survivability and future depends on it. There needs to be significant and valuable transfers of technologies in every sphere. Screwdrivergiri of F-16 is just not going to cut it. Stop with the lectures and lessons that the US believes that India needs to learn. Stop viewing India through an American lens. Step out from the encapsulated Washington DC bubble that US Senators, Congressmen and Geopolitical Analysts live in and experience & understand India. Step out from the idea that the world revolves around the United States of America. Accept the reality of multi-polar alignment. Stop listening to Brown Sahib analysts who are more Unkil than Unkil himself and have a flawed notion that their so-called Indian heritage makes them an expert on India. The reliance on that train of thought has seriously hurt US interests in India.

1. This will never happen as the US already has one strategic competitor in China, and does not want another one in India. We've already seen the nastiness with COVID-19 vaccine production.
2. The brown sahibs such as Fareed Zakaria, Tunku Varadarajan, Sad-Anand Doom, the various nut jobs on WaPo and NYT have excess influence on policy makers which isn't going away anytime soon. There is some cooperation by those who know better, but they are far and few in between.
3. The US government and think tanks want to remove Modi and the BJP. The selection of Pooptown mayor (Garcetti) for ambassador is a good indicator. Should UP elections not go well, rest assured the knives will come out sharpened for the 2024 GE. No color revolution, but create enough irritants to deny the BJP a majority.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 01 Mar 2022 09:31

Mort Walker wrote:All energy prices in the US have gone up including electricity, natural gas (heating), and of course gasoline/diesel.

Just to put this point Mort Walker ji made into human perspective, I filled my CRV from empty to full just an a couple of hours back. I spent $50. That is the highest I ever paid for gas in the past 37+ years in the US. I used to drive a couple of miles south from NY to NJ to get 5 cents per gallon discount ($1.04 to $0.99) back in 1986.

morem · Post by **morem** » 01 Mar 2022 09:46

My gas (heating) prices have gone up 33% in Colorado.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 01 Mar 2022 10:00

I have to agree with Mortji's analysis here. While i'd love to see a world as Rakesh ji posted above, I don't see that coming to fruition. Even as US goes into decline, it would not just let go of its Satraps around the world. Chinese have been coopted in this world order, browns are excluded.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 01 Mar 2022 10:04

vimal wrote: Chinese have been coopted in this world order, browns are excluded.

Nobody is excluded. If we want it then we have to take it. We are just afraid of playing their game and then wallow in self-pity.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 01 Mar 2022 10:07

Vayutuvan wrote: J That is the highest I ever paid for gas in the past 37+ years in the US.

Not true!

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/g ... inflation/

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... us_dpg&f=m

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 01 Mar 2022 10:11

Mort Walker wrote:2. Everything stated about India, China already has it to offer, and top of that offers high growth opportunities for shareholders in various US companies. China offers a more skilled, educated and wealthier workforce over India. The deference will be to the Chinese any day over India.

Mort Walker wrote:1. This will never happen as the US already has one strategic competitor in China, and does not want another one in India. We've already seen the nastiness with COVID-19 vaccine production.

Hence the emergence of the AUKUS, ostensibly aimed at China, but in reality...

My earlier post explaining why AUKUS is not a China-facing grouping in reality: viewtopic.php?p=2515294#p2515294

Reading the above with the latest US actions pushing the bear into the panda's arms, the stooge theory makes more and more sense. This is an empire in serious decline, and the decline would gain speed as time goes, unless they take some corrective steps, and fast. But so far, no such indication. Why would anyone, let alone the oldest surviving civilization of the world, throw in their lot with this lot?

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 01 Mar 2022 11:05

Jay wrote:
vimal wrote: Chinese have been coopted in this world order, browns are excluded.
Nobody is excluded. If we want it then we have to take it. We are just afraid of playing their game and then wallow in self-pity.

We are afraid and more so extremely corrupt so we have to play their game.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Mar 2022 11:29

ramana wrote:Draw a quadrilateral or square and write down the four countries at each corner respectively.
Can be more sophisticated by drawing a quadrilateral with sides representing composite power.
Under each country write down the pros cons wrt Indian interests. Would put Russia and India at the same level.
Remember in the end it's about India's autonomy.
Now tell us what you found?

https://twitter.com/AbhijitChavda/statu ... eRkVw&s=19