mody wrote:Fanne, HAL will manufacture the 18 2 seat trainers first due to the following reasons:
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Mody sir, you actually are supporting my ascertain..
My point is subtle/ nuanced (and much of it is water under the bridge- but sadly the same attitude continues from all parties involved) -
Let me get my fear/conspiracy/probabilistic outcomes out of the way -
1. LCA mk1a somewhere in the future will not help in the war that may come this or next or after that year. War may or may not happen or we may choose to back down because we do not have an absolutely certain capability to have an outcome in our favor
2. LCA mk1a delayed and under some crisis situation (like Galwan), everyone will be jumping for quick foreign buy. A quick LCA somewhat mitigates that
3. We are short of 240 planes from 42 squadron numbers with another 350 (Mig 21, Jags, M2K and Mig 29) retiring in a decade. A shortfall of 600 planes, that have to be filled with 100-150 or so MFRA and 450 -LCA Mk1a, LCA MK2, and AMCA. You do not have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that any delay in LCAmk1a affects all the subsequent programs, giving space for 1 more foreign plane to come in (or MFRA number to go up by say 100%). This will also have the effect of any one of the programs being killed LCAMK2 or AMCA. (Now you know why is CAS so sure that MK2 is not coming). All the 450 indigenous planes have to be made in a decade (that is 45 planes/year). You cannot get there by making 83 LCAMK1a by 2030. Hell, in an ideal world (by our standard, in which LCAMK1A was envisioned in 2016 itself), LCA MK1a should have been ramping down now with 120 -150 planes made and LCA MK2 ramping up and completing by 2030 and AMCA picked from then to complete all 450 made by say 2035. Otherwise, you are running 5-10 years late, and giving room for one more foreign fighter to come in.
It is unsaid, but I bet IAF is betting on AMCA falling short, LCAMK2 too little too late. And by our delays we are giving them a perfect case for imports (I will agree 1000% with IAF, its primary and main aim is to fight and win - with any plane possible, even if of foreign origin).
To combat the shortage of fighters (600 are needed in 10 years) what are all parties doing?
1.IAF wants only 114 MFRA and nothing else. Happy to drag price negotiation for LCAMK1a for 5 years, 2016 to 2021. Guess who are the other parties who let it drag - HAL and MOD.
2. HAL will only start prototyping LCAMK1A after the orders were given in 2021 and not by 2016, when it can use its funds to make HTT-40, 15 LAH etc etc. but cannot find funds to prototype LCAMK1a which involves 2052 radar and some rearrangement of LRUs. By its own admission, it is a minor change and will take 1-2 years to validate. It also makes 18 trainers, when we need fighters. It looks like it would be very happy to make under licence some foreign plane than a plane from ADA (after all, none of the ADA offices is in Europe or US). Yes it is true that we have heard of seperate lines for trainers, let the trainer be on that line, even if it does 2-3 trainers a year and make 10 LCAMK1A this fiscal and finish the whole damn order by 2026/27 and use that line for LCA Mk2order and finish some 120 of them 2032 , after that AMCA. If any of these programs are delayed, use that time for slow burn production of proven design (LCAMK1A, mk2 etc). Of course IAF has to play game here
3. How does MOD helps the situation - It will not release funds for LCAMK2 in time. A few years delay plays well, that means Mk2 is delayed, paving way for a foreign buy.
Boss pura tamasha hai.