Anoop wrote:Deans, I doubt that the PLA strategy is to occupy ground if it will be contested. Even historically, they have withdrawn behind their claim lines e.g. 1962. Their current model of kinetic warfare will probably be firepower oriented, followed by unilateral ceasefire to retain escalation control. What that means is their logistical footprint for fuel, food and water will be less than if they were to attempt to occupy ground. Furthermore, they already are able to sustain large airbases, cantonments and missile silos in the TAR, so forward stocking has already happened. Rotating units coming for exercises remain deployed, suggesting that logistical footprint is already there.
Anoop, I think we are saying the same thing. I agree that the PLA will not seek to occupy contested land and I think its because they don't have
the logistics capacity for their existing force to defeat us, as of now.
Also, while the PLA has built several airfields for e.g. those airfields to not have any hardened shelters, secondary runways, dispersed storage tanks and no sign of anti aircraft defenses (see google earth). It will take time to get these to a war footing. Our China oriented airbases like Gorakhpur or Tezpur, look a lot more like operational bases.
Along the LAC flash points, both sides look like having temporary structures, but in a Div HQ area, our cantonments like Leh, Dras or Yol, look more like permanent cantonments than what the Chinese so far have. Of course, the Chinese can build what they need, but it takes time and in the meantime we are closing the infrastructure gap.
My view is that we need to keep the Chinese quiet for 3-4 years, by which time the worst gaps in out infrastructure, artillery, sensors and aircraft shortages should be plugged. During that time PLA should ideally decide that their top priority is taking Taiwan by 2027 (that's the US/Taiwan assessment) with a second priority being land grab in the South China sea, both of which will require the PLA to close its own gaps with US.
They can't do both that and plan for a conventional war along the LAC.