some things of interest in the past couple of weeks leading to the situation
first on 26.09, the first cabinet minister of israel to visit saudia
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/2 ... blic-visit
The Israeli tourism minister has travelled to Saudi Arabia for a United Nations conference, his office said, describing the visit as the first public trip to the country by an Israeli cabinet member.
Haim Katz’s two-day visit to Riyadh comes as Saudi Arabia is pursuing a possible United States-brokered deal that would forge formal bilateral relations with Israel. Katz is leading a delegation as part of a UN World Tourism Organization event.
Also on Tuesday, Saudi Arabia sent its first delegation in three decades to the occupied West Bank to reassure Palestinians that it will defend their cause even as it forges closer ties with Israel.
“The Palestinian matter is a fundamental pillar,” Naif bin Bandar Al Sudairi, who headed the Saudi delegation and is the new ambassador to the Palestinians, said after meeting top Palestinian diplomat Riyad al-Maliki in Ramallah for talks and to present his credentials.
“And it’s certain that the Arab [Peace] Initiative, which was presented by the kingdom in 2002, is a cornerstone of any upcoming deal.”
second, 2 days back, another israeli minister visits saudia
https://www.msn.com/en-ae/news/middleea ... r-AA1hIMSV
Israeli Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi hailed his country's “blossoming ties” with Saudi Arabia during a visit to Riyadh amid continuing US-brokered negotiations to establish formal relations.
Mr Karhi is the second Israeli official to make a public visit to the kingdom in as many weeks as Israel and Saudi Arabia gradually move towards formally establishing ties.
“We greatly appreciate the tireless efforts of the leaders of Saudi Arabia, and our prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, for nurturing the blossoming ties between our nations,” Mr Karhi told the meeting of the Universal Postal Union, a specialised UN agency intended to encourage international co-operation in the postal sector, in Riyadh.
“As demonstrated by the Abraham Accords, when nations converge on mutual goals, the outcomes can be monumentally transformative,” Mr Karhi added.
Saudi Arabia did not join the US-brokered Abraham Accords, which saw the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco establish formal ties with Israel in 2020.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Fox News that Riyadh was “getting closer” to establishing diplomatic relations with Israel.
this is an interesting challenge for saudia and mbs, recall also the agreement of the i2u2 summit where saudia through its proxy in international relations, the commercial uae, was being courted by the west as something other than a security customer to something of a regional partner, but it also has an agreement with iran and china, but not overtly russia
the players as they currently stand, imo,
saudia+uae - equidistance currently between west and china/iran, fallout of indian side's open support of israel to be seen, more likely would be swept under carpet
syria+egypt - the old leaders against the arab war against israel, both leaders made peace with israel at the time, but still heavy into the palestinian cause, reports of opening front with syria to be confirmed, egypt's armed forces integrity to be tested after the muslim brotherhood rule, both have had some sort of peaceful co-existence with israel in recent years, with the resolution of the sinai peninsula
turkey+qatar - will try to use this opportunity to push muslim brotherhood in rival countries, even try arab springing with fdf to test the cause for the ummah; turkey also brings onboard the current central asian mad dogs, the victors of nagorno-karabakh or astrakhan, azerbaijan, to the table, turkey has been clear-eyed for some time over the revival of the ottoman empire
iran - still trying to push its clerical revolution in the muslim world, patron of hamas, has control + irgc in lebanon and iraq, issues with turkey+qatar block though, one has ability to cause trouble in its northern borders via azerbaijan, the other has the mb
oman - be interesting to see how the rulers align themselves on this one, the previous one was famously aloof and kept his country adrift of such events
somehow the taliban has also thrown their hat in the ring requesting for passage to jerusalem in protection of the palestinians, but currently too far removed to make much of a difference