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I have created this thread because such a war is definitely on the cards and would be good to game out possible Chinese military strategies to take over Taiwan. Please use this thread to also game out scenarios of what an allied task force would do to stop such a Chinese invasion. What happens in Taiwan can certainly be reproduced by China against India. Please provide any thoughts you may have on that as well.
Let me start off thread with this letter, dated 08 May 2024, that has been drafted and signed by 12 members of the US Congress and one member of the US Senate. It is addressed to the US Secretary of the Navy and US Secretary of the Air Force. I will leave the decision to dhoti shiver (or not!) up to you
This first post is a LONG one, as it reproduces the entire letter. Thanks to BRF Member (AshishA), we have an official Govt Twitter account that confirms the letter is authentic. That letter is the one reproduced below. If you do not have the time to read through the entire letter, then read the next post which summarizes all the points in the letter.
CSIS is the premier think tank in these matters. While the US is able to resist a simulated Chinese invasion, the cost is increasingly higher over time.
There is no wargame done for a conflict short of outright war e.g. a PLA blockade of Taiwan.
A few years ago I started thinking about the capacity required by the PRC in order to successfully take Taiwan.
Once I realised what PRC will need to do that. I pretty much had the same reaction the letter conveys. But from an Indian POV.
Because the capacity PRC will need to successfully take Taiwan. Will also be useful in their efforts to wrest Arunachal Pradesh. Unless the Indian Air force capacity is increased 3 to 4 times of its current strength.
But the saving grace from the Indian POV is that moment is at least 20 years ago.
AshishA wrote: ↑22 May 2024 13:09
Please use this link. I think this is from the official x account. The twitter account listed in the first post appears to a CCP propagandist.
'https://x.com/Joel_P_Atkinson/status/17 ... 0728056195 ---> A PLA officer training manual titled “Japanese Air Self-Defense Force” minced no words about how Beijing understands Taiwan’s strategic value to Japan. It stated: "As soon as Taiwan is reunified with Mainland China, Japan’s maritime lines of communication will fall completely within the striking ranges of China’s fighters and bombers… Japan’s economic activity and war-making potential will be basically destroyed… blockades can cause sea shipments to decrease and can even create a famine within the Japanese islands."
https://x.com/DryBulkETF/status/1792915443327390201 ---> Something odd is happening in China's iron ore market: In the last 12 months, inventory levels are up marginally (~15mt), yet the difference between iron ore supplied and iron ore used is up a staggering 158mt. For context, the ~140mt of "missing" iron ore represents the industry size of all EU and Middle East combined! Where is all this iron ore?
https://x.com/ianellisjones/status/1793492050681471401 ----> Let the games begin — China launches exercise Joint Sword 2024A, surrounding Taiwan from all directions. Thread with everything you need to know + tracking live updates.
Rakesh wrote: ↑23 May 2024 20:19https://x.com/ianellisjones/status/1793492050681471401 ----> Let the games begin — China launches exercise Joint Sword 2024A, surrounding Taiwan from all directions. Thread with everything you need to know + tracking live updates.
https://x.com/Jkylebass/status/1793926740919627916 ---> China has now surrounded Taiwan in all directions. CCTV on mainland China has interviewed a senior Chinese military official who explained that Taiwan is an ‘isolated island’ with ‘weak self-sufficiency’. Given Taiwan’s reliance on fuel imports, he said the CCP can make it a ‘dead island’ once it’s ‘besieged and blockaded’. Key months for amphibious invasion are April, May, and August. It seems Xi’s plans are on-track for an invasion sooner than most are expecting.
https://x.com/JaimeOcon1/status/1793571267624267796 ---> BREAKING: Taiwan's military releases more details on China's Joint Sword 2024A exercises, including a map. 42 Chinese military aircraft were reported around Taiwan, 28 crossing the median line. 15 Navy ship, 16 Coast Guard ships.
Does US have a plan to counter a Taiwan blockade ? Not sure it will be sufficient to do a post WW2 Berlin style airlift specially for fuel. Chicoms will keep doing exercise + blockade for months.
S_Madhukar wrote: ↑27 May 2024 14:15
Does US have a plan to counter a Taiwan blockade ? Not sure it will be sufficient to do a post WW2 Berlin style airlift specially for fuel. Chicoms will keep doing exercise + blockade for months.
Besides China having a manufacturing base 5X larger than USA's, China also has a shipbuilding capacity that is 200X larger than USA's.
If China ramps up its military ship-building (heck, even its civilian ship-building), then I don't see how USA would be able to break such a blockade.
I notice American planners keep talking about drones as their techno-magical band-aid solution. It feels like wishful thinking.
Looks like China's Propagandist in chief is the one handling Taiwan affairs and steering the current takeover attempts.
Wang Huning.
He's in charge of Taiwan matters just below Xi Jinping. His official position is CCP Central Leading Small Group for Taiwan Work. Some points that I have been able to glean off the internet.
1. Kuomintang party and the others are trying to introduce a law that will curtail the powers of the president. Even though President Lai is from DPP, Kuomintang and TPP control the legislature. Both Kuomintang and TPP are CCP's lackeys.
2. China wants a takeover of Taiwan like it happened in case of Hong Kong. Through legislature and through their lackeys. They also want minimal spilling of blood. Keeping that in mind, Wang Huning met the Kuomintang members recently where there was a tacit understanding to improve cross strait relations aka dilute national security laws for takeover of Taiwan one day.
3. But for that to happen, they have to curtail the powers of the President while increasing the powers of the legislature. Cuz they haven't been able to get their president pick (a Chinese lackey) for quite some time. They want to do this as fast as possible instead of going through discussions so that they can circumvent the protests that are starting now and present it to the public as a fait accompli. Just the way it happened in Hong Kong.
4. The KMT imho is definitely gearing up towards some handing over Taiwan to CCP by passing laws after they have curtailed the President's power. According to what I read from translated Taiwanese sites, Wang guy has come up with the one country two systems scam and asked the KMT to force it on Taiwanese people if convincing doesn't work. After that is passed, they gonna try the same trick that they used in Hong Kong. Subvert the one country two systems to pass some phony national security acts essentially exercising de facto control over Taiwan.
5. It's easier said than done but everyone has already forgotten Hong Kong, who's to say same won't happen with Taiwan too? I fear the takeover might happen without a single bullet being fired.
https://x.com/ianellisjones/status/1795281034390696392 ---> Japan intercepts Chinese WL-10 recon/attack/EW drone for the first time. On 27 May 2024, Japanese fighters monitored the UAV over the East China Sea. Flight path indicates ISR along the Okinawa prefecture & southwest islands, home to PAC-3 missile systems, & toward Kadena Air Base.
https://x.com/arunp2810/status/1800413632041242830 ---> Hope State Dept has COMINDOPAC’s back? The 1954 Sino-US Defence pact was scrapped in 1979, as quid pro quo with Beijing and replaced by the Taiwan Relations Act which deals only with “commercial & cultural” issues. Even 2019 TAIPEI Act covers only diplomatic issues. And “One China”?
^^^ Above is from this WaPo article. And for all the folks who believe that the Taiwan war will be a long drawn out affair, see quote below...
This same "long drawn out war" theory was applied by the MUTUs on BRF, in a future Indo-China war. China's MIC is so large, that only a Military Alliance with Amreeka will provide India with victory, due to an unlimited supply of US weapons to fight the Chinese ---> "Each time a US-origin fighter (i.e. F-16) is shot down, the US Govt will provide one from its own stocks."
China’s likely strategy is to overwhelm Taiwan with a massive attack with little warning, Paparo said. Xi doesn’t want to repeat Russian President Vladimir Putin’s mistake in Ukraine in 2022, when Russia’s initial full-scale invasion failed and devolved into a long war of attrition.
