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I am now convinced that the NDA is sweeping the elections. Expect more of this posts coming out to build a narrative to deny legitimacy to the electoral process in India. The moment the election results are out, you will find a slew of foreign media outlets decrying the death of Democracy in India, and a rising shrillness.
Winning the elections, is not the end. The powers that be are keeping their options open. First you besmirch an opponent, then you use multilateral think tanks to slowly paint them as unreliable, slowly shifting the Overton Window.
Next steps will be unnecessary needling with travel bans, followed by selective sanctions. Depending on how the other chess pieces move in the global arena, the targeting of India will accelerate or decelerate.
Hate to be cynical, but instability in other parts of the world which keep the big powers occupied would be a great help. India needs to escape the Thucydides Trap.
^^^
Saar that is not issue.
The immediate post election concern are:
1. question the voter turn out and ultimately question the results
2.approach SC to order ECI not to notify results
3.Start street voilence and demo
4. Question the fairness of Minority rights
All this reminds of history being repeated
Check pre 1937, 1937 provincial elections results, the aftermath of it, the demand for separate electorate and ultimately separate electorate and elections of 1946
And we all know what that resulted in.
The peaceful leftovers were left with a definitive reasons ( note sure if Jihadis were such strategically smart but feel it was the Goras and Neverwho & the 'Mahatma' fell into that trap willingly)
Neverwho-Liaquat pact was another example of Neverwho's foolish dream or what I call the 'The Mahatma Syndrome' ( all touched or afflicted by this have perished badly be it Martin Luther/Nelson M/more recently Om Baba)
The noise will start for the separate electorate and proportional representation.
We have two examples of what that would lead to : 1. our own story 2. story of Lebanon.
Hope and fervently wish that I am utterly wrong in my thinking and war-gaming .
But that's my everyday nightmare until the 15th of June and peaceful swearing in of the PM
Mukesh.Kumar wrote: ↑20 May 2024 22:06
I am now convinced that the NDA is sweeping the elections. Expect more of this posts coming out to build a narrative to deny legitimacy to the electoral process in India. The moment the election results are out, you will find a slew of foreign media outlets decrying the death of Democracy in India, and a rising shrillness.
Mostly hot air and will evaporate after a while.
Two American research surveys consistently find 70-79% approval ratings for Modi over many years:
And yes, these surveys are pretty representative and don't just rely on "educated respondents in urban areas".
Throw the above statistics at these clowns/Modi haters. They should feel grateful that 75% approval ratings do not actually translate to 75% vote share for various reasons. Otherwise NDA would have been at 500+ seats, not 400+. Modi's success is driven by hard work and resulting popularity, not by rigging elections.
SRajesh wrote: ↑20 May 2024 23:29
Check pre 1937, 1937 provincial elections results, the aftermath of it, the demand for separate electorate and ultimately separate electorate and elections of 1946
Muslim quota was instituted in 1907 and separate electorates for Muslims in 1909.
What happened in the 1937 election was that Jinnah's Muslim League obtained very few seats; and Congress said that to be part of the Congress-led provincial governments the Muslim Leaguers should take an oath to uphold the Congress program. This was not acceptable to the Muslim Leaguers and things went downhill from there.
To prevent history from repeating, one must know it.
they're talking about the current-ongoing elex..what 'religious violence' have we seen during these elex?! ads using same trope of 'hindu supremacists, oppressed muzzlim'. nothing to see here. whats interesting to see is 'the guardian's' UK's mayoral elections & the britanistan turning 'greener' by the day, while 'guard-dogs' like 'the guardian' are busy barking at india & 'hindu supremacists'. may they get royally effed 786 raised to 786 times! and may them liberal arses see more 'groomings' & sharia-zones.
aameen-chowmein & all that.
Read somewhere that the voting % for state assembly is higher than parliament in the state of Andhra Pradesh by several points. Does ECI provide the voting % separately when the elections are held together? I couldn’t find this on ECI website. But if such information provided for each constituency, it gives lot of information on voting pattern in AP ahead of June 4 counting.
For example if parliament voting % is lower than state assembly by 5% ( that is what I heard), this definitely implies some disgruntled TDP supporters who decided to abstain from MP parliament voting. This difference is not possible by another permutations as nothing can match the hatred of some hard core supporters of TDP against BJP.
Pratyush wrote: ↑21 May 2024 09:13
I listened to the program. My conclusion was that the data is inconclusive in terms of saying that BJP has crossed majority or not in last 5 phases.
It could mean either or the following. 272 has already been crossed. Or 272 will be crossed by the end of the 7th phase.
Bjp will get 50 seats. 39 in TN, 1 puducherri, and 10 will come in november from new jersey.
In 2029 bjp will return to "ham do hamare do", i.e. only Modi and Shah will have seats. Parliament will be delimited to 2 seats, East India seat (expanded from varanasi) and West India seat (expanded from gandhinagar). It will be world's largest election in the world's two largest constituencies. Each will have more than 100 candidates. Xi Jinping will also contest on the East India seat due to Arunachal Pradesh.
SRajesh wrote: ↑20 May 2024 23:29
Check pre 1937, 1937 provincial elections results, the aftermath of it, the demand for separate electorate and ultimately separate electorate and elections of 1946
To prevent history from repeating, one must know it.
Guptaji
Thanks for pointing out the error in chronology
That should have been separate state and then that was what won ML the elections!!
The unionists and other assorted Peaceful parties won more probably that ML
but all or mostly came under the banner of ML in 1946 and rest as they say is History
My Dhoti shivering is increasing with each passing day... I'm not able to get clear picture of the ground situation...
SM and Whatsapp groups are completely dominated by Congis and Aaptards...
In my family one uncle is a forever Khangressi and the other a UBT supporter. Very highly educated these chaps but they have no shame in forwarding all kinds of these crass and stupid anti-Modi videos on WhatsApp. There is an electorate that will be dogmatic even as the ship sinks but I have more hope from the ordinary poor voters who can see the difference in their lives - but we know from our history that even Krishna and other saints had to endure such abuse in their time, such is the nature of Hindus
LakshmanPST wrote: ↑21 May 2024 12:36
SM and Whatsapp groups are completely dominated by Congis and Aaptards...
Just spent about 30 mins on social media during lunch. I agree X etc is now fully tuned to support the secular groups. So I see strange feeds and tweets from strange people. But what I also observed is that there is no cohesion amongst these handles. There is one gang who starts with "Breaking.. confirmed.. I.N.D.I.A is winning in 400 seats", but then there is also another group who are whining - "ECI has been compromised. EVMs are getting hacked. Why have elections like this?". Then there are also a set of jokers who tweets stuff like "I like Pappu Ghandi's fart, put a if you agree." and "Na. Mo should not even become a Panchayath President, do you agree??". Whether these are genuine people, or are they located in India - all are big question marks.
‘Realisation is same as jail’: Delhi HC reduces life sentence of 5 JeM terrorists to 10 years, cites Fyodor Dostoyevsky’s ‘Crime and Punishment’
Quoting Dostoevsky, HC reduces sentence of 5 men accused of aiding JeM
The bench further said, “We refer to a quote by Fyodor Dostoevsky, the author of 'Crime and Punishment'... Dostoevsky writes that 'if he has a conscience he will suffer for his mistake...”
“The man who has a conscience suffers whilst acknowledging his sin… Dostoevsky writes that ‘if he has a conscience he will suffer for his mistake; that will be punishment — as well as the prison’.”
There is a lot of noise out there. There was a minor fire in the Home Ministry around April 16th, I think. The opposition chatter turns this into panic burning of guilty secrets. Gadkari has said, I do not want to beg for votes; I do not believe in election management, if people want to come to my rallies, they will come. This has been translated into "I will win without leaving my home", and then he panicked and started campaigning. And so on. It is all noise.
I have not come across a serious observer who thinks PM Modi will not return. I think the key question is that if the BJP returns with the same or somewhat diminished mandate, what the political impact of that will be. IMO, if the BJP improves its mandate, the noise will die down to irrelevance. If the BJP does not improve its mandate, even if it improves its share of the vote over 2019, then the world over it will be trumpeted that PM Modi's program has been rejected, and the noise will increase and increase.
LakshmanPST wrote: ↑21 May 2024 12:36
My Dhoti shivering is increasing with each passing day... I'm not able to get clear picture of the ground situation...
SM and Whatsapp groups are completely dominated by Congis and Aaptards...
Try not to ruin your health. If you want a clear picture of ground situation, why on earth are you following social media. Mostly a bunch of clowns whiling away their time.
Listen to commentators who have presence on the ground.
50 seats are sure-shot for BJP (TN, Puducheri, and New Jersey). Rest all up in the air. Whaaat to do, wonly ?
LakshmanPST wrote: ↑21 May 2024 12:36
My Dhoti shivering is increasing with each passing day... I'm not able to get clear picture of the ground situation...
SM and Whatsapp groups are completely dominated by Congis and Aaptards...
Try not to ruin your health. If you want a clear picture of ground situation, why on earth are you following social media. Mostly a bunch of clowns whiling away their time.
Listen to commentators who have presence on the ground.
50 seats are sure-shot for BJP (TN, Puducheri, and New Jersey). Rest all up in the air. Whaaat to do, wonly ?
KLD saar, too good. I wish you were there to dish it back on some of the WhatsApp groups that I am forced to be part of.
BRF should be examining forward-looking topics. In 2029 Modi and Shah will likely consider allowing outsiders to contest in areas where the people look like they are Chinese, White, Arab, African, etc. This will be a good way to showcase the Indian democracy in an "immersive" way to people from the whole world. It looks like INC got wind of this idea and decided to make Gangaram announce their own plans.
I am told that Xi Jinping may contest and is expected to give a good fight to NDA in areas of chinese-looking population. Other candidates are Justin Trudeau (Punjab), Leo Varadkar (Maharashtra), Antonio Costa (Goa or other black-looking areas), Barack Obama (Andhra), In fact I hear Obamudu has already prepared his campaign slogan ("obamayya vostaavayya") modeled on a song in an old Raj Kapoor film.
Rahul Shivshankar
@RShivshankar
Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal are predicting a “2004-like” rout of the Modi-led NDA. Is it possible? Well not if the I.N.D.I.A bloc can’t cross these 5 barriers.
Barrier 2: BJP'S 50% voteshare in 224 seats in 2019
From 257 seats across U.P, M.P, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Karnataka, Delhi, Haryana, Uttarakhand & Maharashtra, BJP won 144 seats with a vote share of over 50%
Takeaway: Cong must sway 10% to 15% votes away from BJP in these states
Barrier 3: BJP’S 171 'walkovers'
Cong won only 15 of 186 direct fights with BJP. Cong must win over 100 seats for I.N.D.I.A bloc to take shape.
Takeaway: In 2004, Cong was able to form UPA-I with just 145 seats. Cong unlikely to wrest 100 seats from BJP to triple its 2019 tally
Barrier 4: NDA’S Southern comfort
BRS erosion in Telangana and NDA’S ressurected caste combo in Andhra will translate into more seats for the Modi led-ruling front. Just a 10% vote swing away from BRS to BJP in Telangana allows BJP to bag 6 seats.
Takeaway: NDA gains in Telangana and Andhra could offset losses in Maharashtra, if any.
Barrier 5: BJP has an “uttar”
BJP won 40 seats in Uttar Pradesh with more than 50% vote share in 2019 despite BSP + SP + RLD alliance.
Takeaway: Almost impossible for I.N.D.I.A to form government without winning Uttar Pradesh
KL Dubey wrote: ↑21 May 2024 19:42
BRF should be examining forward-looking topics. In 2029 Modi and Shah will likely consider allowing outsiders to contest in areas where the people look like they are Chinese, White, Arab, African, etc. This will be a good way to showcase the Indian democracy in an "immersive" way to people from the whole world. It looks like INC got wind of this idea and decided to make Gangaram announce their own plans.
I am told that Xi Jinping may contest and is expected to give a good fight to NDA in areas of chinese-looking population. Other candidates are Justin Trudeau (Punjab), Leo Varadkar (Maharashtra), Antonio Costa (Goa or other black-looking areas), Barack Obama (Andhra), In fact I hear Obamudu has already prepared his campaign slogan ("obamayya vostaavayya") modeled on a song in an old Raj Kapoor film.
Rahul Shivshankar
@RShivshankar
Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal are predicting a “2004-like” rout of the Modi-led NDA. Is it possible? Well not if the I.N.D.I.A bloc can’t cross these 5 barriers.
Barrier 1: BJP’s vote lakhpatis
164 seats victory margin: 2 lakh votes.
Takeway: BJP has very few marginal seats to lose.
Barrier 2: BJP'S 50% voteshare in 224 seats in 2019
From 257 seats across U.P, M.P, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Karnataka, Delhi, Haryana, Uttarakhand & Maharashtra, BJP won 144 seats with a vote share of over 50%
Takeaway: Cong must sway 10% to 15% votes away from BJP in these states
Barrier 3: BJP’S 171 'walkovers'
Cong won only 15 of 186 direct fights with BJP. Cong must win over 100 seats for I.N.D.I.A bloc to take shape.
Barrier 4: NDA’S Southern comfort
BRS erosion in Telangana and NDA’S ressurected caste combo in Andhra will translate into more seats for the Modi led-ruling front. Just a 10% vote swing away from BRS to BJP in Telangana allows BJP to bag 6 seats.
Barrier 5: BJP has an “uttar”
BJP won 40 seats in Uttar Pradesh with more than 50% vote share in 2019 despite BSP + SP + RLD alliance.
Takeaway: Almost impossible for I.N.D.I.A to form government without winning Uttar Pradesh
I have crunched the numbers for each state. Worst case scenario for NDA is 251.
This is 50% vote share + 10% more than the no 2 candidate + winning margin of 1 lac.
I have a very different take on this election - mainly on the analysis part. The exit poll of the election is with everyone that matters, meaning both parties know the outcome. Just from the utterance, this could be close election, with BJP still managing majority, but perhaps just.
First with voting %, there is no correlation between turnout and effect on incumbent, however traditional wisdom I think is still correct, very high is not good for incumbent, any other scenario has no statistical importance. As the axis guys said,low voting % could be because of weather, more young population in the voting % that are away from their native because of job, education etc etc or high covid deaths not being removed from the rolls etc.
With that out of the way, it does not look like a wave election (it could very well be, but only he exit polls people with sharp analytical skills would be knowing). There are claims and counterclaims. Most likely, it is slightly +ve for BJP (labharthis, women, cadre, ideology) with other side having other factors going for them (minorities and unemployment).
The other argument that BJP had 50% vote share in say state like UP, you start from there and argue that only x% will decrease, and because of high base, BJP will win. This fly against logic.By that logic, congress of 1984 should have never lost, neither the congress of 2014. But even with 50% vote share, one can lose the next election, usually the opinion poll catches the direction. In 2014, all opinion polls were pointing towards anger against con and its rout, only teh magnitude was in question. Thankfully in 2024, there seems to be no anger against BJP in opinion polls.
Now coming to state like UP, saying BJP has 50% vote in 2019 against 42% vote % in 2014 was precisely because of SP/BJP thagbandhan. In places where there was no BSP candidate was missing, majority of non muslim BSP voters voted to BJP and where there was no SP candidate, majority of non muslim SP voter voted BJP instead of BSP. Though in assembly election of 2027, BJP improved it numbers to 48%-49%. Since this time, BSP,SP/Cong, BJP are fighting all seats they will get their respective vote banks, and none will go to BJP (except, I think, many congress seats, some SP voter may still vote BJP, instead of cong). Local factors and shifting caste equation play a strong role. I still believe BJP will do as much as their 2019 tally, they may so slightly better. The free rations and gas/drinking water is doing wonders for BJP. BSP has put a decent amount of peaceful candidates, that should help BJP.
Bihar, NDA was 39/40. Just based on law of averages, things are bad for NDA, add to that caste equation, resurgent but abusive Tejasvi etc. and it is tough/bad. Unemployment, particularly BJP/JDU govt sitting on govt job notification and RJD announcing it is hurting BJP. These are the only jobs that are coming or count as real jobs. Losses could be as high as 15 seats,more likely like 10. NDA should settle at 30. But the bottom can drop an then it is anybody's guess.
Maharashtra is another unpredictable seat. They say that constituency loyalty is big in Maha. Unlike Bihar/UP, the Maha politician has made money but also made his clan, constituency, group, caste , whatever wealthy and the people vote for them. There are at least 3-4 dozen assemblies where someone can win, irrespective of the party. That perhaps explain the low voting, people are fed up, or dont know who is who and have decided to sit out. BJP should not be affected by this (in theory) and so should not be congress. BJP/NDA can win uptp 42 but can come down to 30s. Shinde group may not do much better.
West Bengal is another tough state. A free and fair election would see BJP making upto 30 seats. In last election, Mamta and her goon may not have known BJP good performance, this time they know. How much muscle power/scientific rigging they will do and to what effect, who knows. Hoping BJP will be at least 20.
Two states, where bJP is doing worse than 2019 are Karnataka and Rajasthan. How bad? conventional wisdom is few steas, but that is conventional wisdom.
TN/Kerela, BJP will hugely increase vote share, seat share - who knows, anything from 0 to 10.
BJP is doing superb in Orissa and Telengana, gaining some dozen seats between them.
Haryana/Delhi/Punjab/Ladhak - perhaps some very low loses to BJP. Some say +ve outcome may be expected in PB.
Status quo in MP,Jharkhand, chattisgrah, Guj, HP, Uttrakhand, with some seats being won and lost.
This election, unfortunately has turned somewhat local. The outside agencies have tried to influence 3 castes - Jaats, Gujjars and Rajputs (please look at you tube, got that gyan from there. Some MSM have exposed people with exact names, their associations etc. its pretty convincing). The loss of some Rajput votes is hurting BJP in Raj and UP/Bihar.
Modi ji 400 call was mostly to dissuade the foreign player to back off (Farmer protest 2.0 fizzelled). It also demoralized the cong supporters (both voters/cadres and money bags).It also had an unintended consequence of BJP voter/cadre becoming lethargic (or becoming local focused, let me defeat this BJP mp, Mod ji 399 will come from somewhere else).
All in all looks like a close election. But then it may not be, and the powers that be (from both sides) know the exit poll numbers of the 400 off seats that have gone out. Listen to their rhetoric from this point of view.
S_Madhukar wrote: ↑21 May 2024 13:22
In my family one uncle is a forever Khangressi and the other a UBT supporter. Very highly educated these chaps but they have no shame in forwarding all kinds of these crass and stupid anti-Modi videos on WhatsApp. There is an electorate that will be dogmatic even as the ship sinks but I have more hope from the ordinary poor voters who can see the difference in their lives - but we know from our history that even Krishna and other saints had to endure such abuse in their time, such is the nature of Hindus
I don't know, from what Iam hearing NO, but reading SM will change your mind and you will dhoti shibber. It is definitely not 400 paar. Never was. I will gladly take anything over 272, and it looks like that is what is the most likely and most probable outcome.
fanne wrote: ↑21 May 2024 22:53
With that out of the way, it does not look like a wave election (it could very well be, but only he exit polls people with sharp analytical skills would be knowing).
The term "wave election" seems misused/misunderstood. Two main things:
1) "Wave" occurs either when people strongly want a step change (not incremental), or there is some kind of one-off event (like a sympathy wave) - which propelled a good for nothing fellow like Rajiv Gandhi to 400+ seats in 1984.
2) "Wave" is often not a single sweeping phenomenon across a huge country like Bharat. It has to be seen in statewise context.
Now, LS 2014 was indeed a wave election in most of the country save for the eastern coastal belt (from WB to TN) and also KL. People wanted change in the form of Modi. Even in the eastern coast and KL, vote share of BJP increased.
LS 2019 was not a wave election in most of the country, which already experienced 5 good years of Modi and renewed his tenure with a good increase in vote share. But it was a wave election in WB, where people began to strongly want change. Also I'd say a "mini-wave" in KA and TG.
Similarly, LS 2024 will not be a wave election since most parts of Bharat are securely voting for BJP/NDA and want Modi again to continue his work. In Lucknow for instance, there was much less fanfare or intense campaigning this time relative to 2019 and 2014. I believe the EC has also made the voting booth experience much smoother, so long lines are not seen as much. However, it is a wave election in much of the east coast which is now wanting change: OD and TN. And even KL. Also WB and TG are showing signs of a continuing "mini-wave".
Finally, things become simpler if one just looks at the LS elections as a YES/NO referendum on Modi (or Modi sarkar). The other stuff like local management, candidate selection, and other issues do have some play in terms of the exact number of winning seats, but ultimately it's about Modi.
The number of seats depends on how many more people can Modi get to vote for him abandoning their other constraints. In places like WB, PB, TN, and KL, intimidation/misinformation/sheer ignorance have played a huge role in preventing voters from going for the "kamal" even if they like Modi. Put another way, the more Modi closes the gap between his approval rating (which is well into the 70%+) and his vote share (which is "only" 45-50%), the more seats he will win.
This game is different from older elections prior to 2014.
> Put another way, the more Modi closes the gap between his approval rating (which is well into the 70%+) and his vote share (which is "only" 45-50%), the more seats he will win.
if you agree." and "Na. Mo should not even become a Panchayath President, do you agree??". Whether these are genuine people, or are they located in India - all are big question marks.
