Indian Response to Terrorism

[RajeshA]

Neela,

I have sent a storm your way.

Thanks

[enqyoob]

UN chief calls up Zardari !!!!
news just now

Negotiating terms for the UN Fact-Finding Mission to Pakistan.
Will Zardari accept just 9.5 percent this time? Won't he?

[brihaspati]

Pakistan's calculation has been on the basis that India will attack from its western border with Pakistan. This is what the Taleban+Qaeda+ISI calculated for when they planned for the Mumbai attacks and the follow-ons yet to be unleashed. What if they are attacked from the Afghan side? This does play into US hands and could be part of the calculation of "black ops" on the part of CIA, but India has reasonable grounds to form military alliance with Afghanistan - formally "protect Indian goodwill missions" in AFG. For cover, US planes could transport Indian troops and operatives. This draws the entire Pak army regulars and Talebani-Qaeda irregulars to the north-west - let the tribal leaders do a merry dance about it. But the key to dealing with these groups is a carrot and stick policy - if loyal feed them sweets, if disloyal, simply liquidate. Each hill and tract has to be encircled tightly and cleared. There is no alternative to possible large scale annihilation campaigns - and the Afghans are pragmatists - they have survived for thousands of years by bowing to the current storm, they will conform if they see that the only alternative is complete erasure. It is Tsun Zu doctrine applied to large scale positional warfare - make a noise in the east and attack in the west - then make a noise in the west and attack from the east. (well keep the north and the Karakorum highway away from China at the same time!)

[enqyoob]

The idea that a "Stable Pakistan is In India's and the Duniya's Interests" has to be challenged and defeated.

My solution as u know, is to destroy the head of the monster - Pak Army HQ, all their Generals, all of the ISI. Leave the rest of the disintegration to the Taliban.

A Taliban takeover BY INVASION of Peshawar, Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Lahore, is IMO a very sweet thing to happen to the Pakjabi RAPEs. The common unreasoning terror is that this will result in NBC WMD-armed terrorists in 'Pindi. But that is so WRONG. It is TODAY that we have NBC-WMD-armed terrorists ruling in 'Pindi. The RAPEs have brought it on themselves.

Once the Taliban comes at Pakjab with a vengeance, the other parts will build their fences swiftly, and the Taliban leadership will have targets painted on their musharrafs. The new UN members of FTSP will have to enact Turkey-like laws swiftly to keep from Talibanizing. Pakhtoonistan may require some special Afghan help to stomp out the Taliban.

True sweetness: Seeing the TV footage of the RAPEs' mansions burning in Lahore with the Taliban dancing around the baskets of severed limbs a la Kabul (remember the pictures on RAWA.org before RAWA was taken over by the RAPEs?)

[SaiK]

Is there a truth to what this paki journo says? ....>>>>>>>>>>>

http://www.hotklix.com/?ref=link/167516 India has never been a direct al-Qaeda target. This has been due in part to Delhi's traditionally impartial policy of strategic non-alignment and in part to al-Qaeda using India as a safe route from the Arabian Sea into Gujrat and then on to Mumbai and then either by air or overland to the United Arab Emirates.[/b] Al-Qaeda did not want to disrupt this arrangement by stirring up attacks in India.

And... he says the original plan was ISI's, and read his article about the breakups in paki ISI ops, that went after US pressure to attack pakistan. There is connecting the dots, when one says, IN destroyed their mother ship, and the LeT-ISI combines took one of their original plans, and executed with LeT pigs.

But, it would hard to fill certain gaps anyway.. but imho there is something here. I am concerned if the above is true!!!!


And what is the status of ISI chief visiting India, against MMS's order?

[brihaspati]

My solution as u know, is to destroy the head of the monster - Pak Army HQ, all their Generals, all of the ISI. Leave the rest of the disintegration to the Taliban.

What? and leave them around to have to do a second cleaning operation like the US had to do after the "dirty war" against USSR in Afghan!

Well that could be sweet! But what makes us so sure that the Talebs will actually make a barbeque out of the Punjabi establishment? For all I know the Punjabis will be lining the streets in their shilwars to welcome them with an Islam approved male hug. It will be the ISI establishment and sympathetic Pak army that will coordinate the entrance with Taleb command. The Talebs need resources badly - with US pressure on the north, Iranian and Chinese supply lines are becoming vulnerable - they need the Indian plains now, and Pak's only means of survival is to let loose the Taleb on India, and extract more petro-dollar and Chinese/Iranian hardware to prop up the sinking state. It is better perhaps to let them compete with each other a bit and try to use each other - for therein lies the finer threads of potential Chanakyaniti. Both the Taleb and the Punjabi establishment are using India to tactically use each other. I guess one possible compromise India can really make is to come to an underhand military agreement and presence with Afghan government to cause as much pain as possible in the North West until full scale military ops can be undertaken from the east. India can and should move its tactical presence to the Afghan border - I cannot elaborate the strategic importance of such a move for the future on an open forum !

[brihaspati]

India has never been a direct al-Qaeda target. This has been due in part to Delhi's traditionally impartial policy of strategic non-alignment and in part to al-Qaeda using India as a safe route from the Arabian Sea into Gujrat and then on to Mumbai and then either by air or overland to the United Arab Emirates. Al-Qaeda did not want to disrupt this arrangement by stirring up attacks in India.

strategic b*******.

Qaeda has a much better route direct from south Pakistan, south Afghanistan, through Iran and the Persian Gulf. The so-called Shia-sunni divide is not a factor when it comes to dealing with non-Muslim enemies. The route along the coast as well as land passes through Baloch areas straddling both sides of the Pak-Iran border - where government control by both states is a bit dicy to say the least. Passing through "air" and "land" from Mumbai! That would be a great deal more problematic than posing as a fish-stinky Bira sailor making the smoky journey in a leaky vessel along the ancient trade routes from Sind/Makran to the Persian Gulf.

[RayC]

My solution as u know, is to destroy the head of the monster - Pak Army HQ, all their Generals, all of the ISI. Leave the rest of the disintegration to the Taliban.

What? and leave them around to have to do a second cleaning operation like the US had to do after the "dirty war" against USSR in Afghan!

Well that could be sweet! But what makes us so sure that the Talebs will actually make a barbeque out of the Punjabi establishment? For all I know the Punjabis will be lining the streets in their shilwars to welcome them with an Islam approved male hug. It will be the ISI establishment and sympathetic Pak army that will coordinate the entrance with Taleb command. The Talebs need resources badly - with US pressure on the north, Iranian and Chinese supply lines are becoming vulnerable - they need the Indian plains now, and Pak's only means of survival is to let loose the Taleb on India, and extract more petro-dollar and Chinese/Iranian hardware to prop up the sinking state. It is better perhaps to let them compete with each other a bit and try to use each other - for therein lies the finer threads of potential Chanakyaniti. Both the Taleb and the Punjabi establishment are using India to tactically use each other. I guess one possible compromise India can really make is to come to an underhand military agreement and presence with Afghan government to cause as much pain as possible in the North West until full scale military ops can be undertaken from the east. India can and should move its tactical presence to the Afghan border - I cannot elaborate the strategic importance of such a move for the future on an open forum !

Let us be rational.

Can one destroy the Pak Army? It sure would be worthwhile to know how.

Unless one is in the govt and privy to state secrets, what's so difficult to enunciate personal views on an open forum. Obviously personal views of common citizen's does not the foreign or defence policy make.

Why should the Taleban go for the Pak Punjabis? Taliban, itself, has many Pak Punjabis.

Pak is allowing these elements to subvert India since India and its success is an insult to their existence, where they thought that they would be overtaking India in all spheres by splitting India on the cause of religion. Their religion has failed them and so has India's success and so they have become the green eyed monsters.

One should promote subnationalism in Pakistan and the Sunni Shia divide and the house of card will collapse.

One has to understand the Sunni Shia divide to realise it explosive potential.

[SaiK]

India has never been a direct al-Qaeda target. This has been due in part to Delhi's traditionally impartial policy of strategic non-alignment and in part to al-Qaeda using India as a safe route from the Arabian Sea into Gujrat and then on to Mumbai and then either by air or overland to the United Arab Emirates. Al-Qaeda did not want to disrupt this arrangement by stirring up attacks in India.

strategic b*******.

Qaeda has a much better route direct from south Pakistan, south Afghanistan, through Iran and the Persian Gulf. The so-called Shia-sunni divide is not a factor when it comes to dealing with non-Muslim enemies. The route along the coast as well as land passes through Baloch areas straddling both sides of the Pak-Iran border - where government control by both states is a bit dicy to say the least. Passing through "air" and "land" from Mumbai! That would be a great deal more problematic than posing as a fish-stinky Bira sailor making the smoky journey in a leaky vessel along the ancient trade routes from Sind/Makran to the Persian Gulf.

I would love to agree.. but something still missing.. just not emphatic enough.. there would be something these pakis can do, make it appear that Indian locals is doing all the narotics. And, we do have tremendous capability to do something like this.. at least 150Million people would not mind doing drug trade.

[RajeshA]

The idea that a "Stable Pakistan is In India's and the Duniya's Interests" has to be challenged and defeated.

My solution as u know, is to destroy the head of the monster - Pak Army HQ, all their Generals, all of the ISI. Leave the rest of the disintegration to the Taliban.

A Taliban takeover BY INVASION of Peshawar, Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Lahore, is IMO a very sweet thing to happen to the Pakjabi RAPEs. The common unreasoning terror is that this will result in NBC WMD-armed terrorists in 'Pindi. But that is so WRONG. It is TODAY that we have NBC-WMD-armed terrorists ruling in 'Pindi. The RAPEs have brought it on themselves.

Once the Taliban comes at Pakjab with a vengeance, the other parts will build their fences swiftly, and the Taliban leadership will have targets painted on their musharrafs. The new UN members of FTSP will have to enact Turkey-like laws swiftly to keep from Talibanizing. Pakhtoonistan may require some special Afghan help to stomp out the Taliban.

True sweetness: Seeing the TV footage of the RAPEs' mansions burning in Lahore with the Taliban dancing around the baskets of severed limbs a la Kabul (remember the pictures on RAWA.org before RAWA was taken over by the RAPEs?)

Alhamdulillah!!!

You should not steal other people's dreams!

I am betting that Saudi-Arabia will sooner or later transfer their support back to the Taliban, showing the Pakjabi RAPEs the middle-finger, Saudis sure that the Taliban would indeed be taking over whole of Pakistan. I am also sure, that to avoid becoming the turkey the RAPE would have to become a Turkey, and sooner or later would have to turn to India for protection and financial support.

That is the time, when India would have to adopt a kemalized Pakjab to act as a buffer between India and Talibanistan. That would prove to be a 1000 year stand-off, and in those 1000 years, India will keep telling them how it came about, because of the sins of their fathers. That will be generations and generations of Pakjabi soldiers dying by the swords of the Taliban. Pakjab is the buffer land between Orks of Mordor and the Humans of Middle Earth.

[NRao]

RayC,

Although what you say is right, I have to suspect that it will not happen because GoI will respond by saying it is an internal affair.

My read of the present predicament is that GoP has enough resolve to push terrorists across the border to bleed India, there are enough terrorists who are willing to die for Islam (something that is icing for GoP) and GoI is willing to live with the GoP game plan because they have built the cost of such living into THEIR (personal) living.

Everyone has red lines and for GoI terrorism is NOT crossing this line. Were the PA to do something like this, bet GoI would react.

DBians can cross and occupy and GoI will not react. Were the BDA to cross and occupy GoI will react.

In short India has NO "sphere of influence" defined. Actually even within her border.

No group that strategizes, no policy formulation.

IMHO, a failed democracy. Not failing, but failed.

[SaiK]

..

One should promote subnationalism in Pakistan and the Sunni Shia divide and the house of card will collapse.

One has to understand the Sunni Shia divide to realise it explosive potential.

from the hotklix link, the paki says:-

Two well-known Indophile political parties, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, a coalition partner in the government comprising people who migrated to Pakistan after the partition of British India in 1947, and the Awami National Party, another coalition partner in the government and a Pashtun sub-nationalist political party, clashed within 24 hours of the Mumbai attacks. Fifteen people have been killed to date and the city is closed, like Mumbai was after the November 26 attacks.

any rawlings? i am just correlating, btw.

[Pranay]

http://www.outlookindia.com/full.asp?fo ... apak&sid=2

B. Raman in the article above clearly enunciates my feelings and those of many other people in this forum and outside.

I would add that India should heavily finance the separatism within Pakistan of their Baluchi, Sindhi nationalities. Do a repeat of Bangladesh on them !!

It goes back to my post on BR in 1998, under my previous avatar of Girnar, where i brought up the conversation i had with a serving Pakistani Naval Officer while i was serving in the US Navy, where he mentioned the idea of Pakistan being a state of India. That thread had generated quite a lot of response and other ideas...

[satya]

NRaojee

The steps that GoI can take to really tackle terrorism probably won't ever be made available in the public domain for most will be successful if not made a public knowledge & going by our DDM telling about steps being taken for Airport Security & other future steps , terrorists have got a wikipedia constantly updated by DDM so i really hope , GoI not disclose vital information .Visible steps in near term could be strikes across LoC or anti terror operations in India . Will it do us any good if a limited cross border operation followed by things as before in rest of internal security apparatus ?
BJP has come in support of GoI today in probing the linkage so it can be made public , atleast it does tell something of behind the scenes parleys btw main politicians .
As for exploiting the faultlines in TSP , even if its decided to do something in tht regard , no politician is stupid enough to come out in open & say so atleast in ruling party .Only hint we are getting so far is via Sh. B Raman's article where he stated that IB has covert capability but not R&AW so R&AW better take help from IB & Defence Forces .

Hate to say this but answer is in the belly of future not present . Present holds both hope & despair whichever way one wana see .

[milindc]

Has anyone given thought to how the non-response from GoI will star-burst the growth of Hindu extremists.....
The official non-response will cause a vacuum which will be rapidly filled by Hindu extremists and cause total chaos in society. GoI needs to be mindful of that

[enqyoob]

RayC:

First of all, let us NOT be completely rational. No rational person would have ordered men up the cliffs of Kargil at 10,000 feet in darkness to climb into the face of machine-gun bunkers. But that's what kept India from breaking up, or being forced into nuclear war, in 1999. But of course I don't have to preach to the choir there, hey? Salaam, boss.

Can one destroy the Pak Army? I say, MOST DEFINITELY, yes. Part of the "secret" is in your post below. What I DON'T advocate (and most people agree, see the Poll item on "Let Gen. Vij loose on RYK") is a WW2-style attack on the Pak Army, where you have to smash through line after defensive line, losing thousands of men, and killing mostly cannon fodder.

But swift operations to take out the HQ and the generals, and hammering their military infrastructure, is something with a clear purpose - degrade their ability to attack THEIR OWN PEOPLE.

This is a 3-step process:
1. While global outrage is high, and there is a window of opportunity, launch a set of military strikes on the Army leadership (NOTE: I did not say "Air Force" or "Navy" leadership - the head of ISI or Pak Army of Islam has never been from either of those). This attack will cost India heavily in terms of heroes lost, and a few planes downed, but is worth it. For one thing, it will be applauded as the right response against the right targets - it thus DEFINES the "right targets" for the world to see.

With good PR, it also defines the Paki-in-the-mohalla that the Indian anger is directed at the Pak Army HQ, the Generals etc. Not that many will see it right off, but some will. For one thing, it does what they have wanted to do for a long time. For another, it actually hits those in the Establishment that are seen as American stooges, while you and I know that they are nothing of the sort - they are just thieves who profit from torture and murder of innocents. Not a bad thing at all.

The resulting chaos will trigger one of 2 things:
1. A Military Coup by the surviving layer of Colonels.
2. A huge chasm inside the military between different power-grabbing factions.

In either case, if done well, it means that regional Liberation Struggles now have a much freer hand, because 'Pindi won't be in a position to send the heavy armor and jet fighters and attack helicopters to wipe out their villages. The roads and rail lines won't work either. So there is a window of opportunity for those provinces to secede. The usual Moral and Diplomatic Support should be extended generously to them.

Now look around: what is the interest of the US and NATO? They will make clear to the entities in these places that a Taliban govt is a target for Predators from Day 1, but Sultanates we can deal with.

Why should the Taleban go for the Pak Punjabis? Taliban, itself, has many Pak Punjabis.

Now as for the Taliban. Firstly, it is NOT the "Taliban" that is attacking the Pak Frontier Constabulary in Waziristan. It is the Pakhtoon / Waziri people. Once Pakhtoonistan is freed from 'Pindi rule, they are largely happy to live within their hashish-trading, traveler-murdering ancient culture, with their goats and hookahs and peachy-cheeked boys and wives and AK-47s. However, in the near term, I think they would enjoy visiting Islamabad and Lahore and 'Pindi briefly. After that, the Indus becomes the new Durand Line.

The religious nuts are sent by the ISI. Why would you believe that once the ISI/ Pak Army infrastructure is hit, that they would be able to continue the war against the US/NATO?

Pak is allowing these elements to subvert India since India and its success is an insult to their existence, where they thought that they would be overtaking India in all spheres by splitting India on the cause of religion. Their religion has failed them and so has India's success and so they have become the green eyed monsters. One should promote subnationalism in Pakistan and the Sunni Shia divide and the house of card will collapse.One has to understand the Sunni Shia divide to realise it explosive potential.

Exactly, it is "PAKISTAN" central entity, that is promoting the attacks against India, and against the US/NATO and everyone else. The central entity. That's why that entity cannot be allowed to exist, if peace is to ever come to the Indian subcontinent without total annihilation.

About the shias, that's where your answer is, to how the Pak Army can be utterly destroyed. The Balochis have to have a reason to walk out, and some reasonable optimism that they can survive. If they see the top echelon of the PA being taken out, and coups and deep cracks forming, then they have that glimpse of hope.

If u r with me thus far, we can talk about the rest.

[surinder]

Narayanan,

I have to aggree with your plan. Pakistan is a weak nation hopping on one strong leg (as someone said). So the idea is that we should break that strong leg. Also, just break the stongest part of that strong leg. Also should be included any RAPE establishments in areas that can come under artillery fire in Lahore sector. (Is Rawalpindi in arti range?).

The Pasthoon anger at Punjabi is deep and widespread. They never forget enemies, nor forgive them. Talibums are almost all Pashthoon, not punjabi. Punjabis are there only as adventerers. Pathoons don't respect punjabis; they have nothing but contempt for them. A wider Pashtoon takeover is invitable.

The forces unleashed by this move will, to a certain exten, unpredictable. But it is for us to make use of that storm to shake the whole mess and solve our problems first and foremost.

[ramana]

Brishaspati, When talking about the Pakis in West Punjab call them Pakjabis and not Punjabis for true Punjab is in India and there is one in every Indian.

RayC, Can the TSPA be destroyed? YES. You need to trigger the Deobandi/ Jihadi coup which will result in them turing on each other. I have studied the TSPA in quite a lot of detail. There is a moderate funadmentalist officer corps in charge (which is in league with Uncle) and there is a hardline fundamentalist faction onthe periphery but gradually getting to the center. In an Islamist state the hardliners will always win over the moderates, for that is the way of the Arabian religions, literalists always prevail over the gnostics. So if the hardliners feel that their Nazariya Paksitan is being mortgaged by the Moderates it will trigger the long awaited coup and pull a Bhasmasura.

So the paln instead of all those brutus fulemn(useless thunderbolts) of sending a dhast o Indus etc should be brandshed but the real paln should be to trigger the impolsion. My reading before the kabul Embassy and the Mumbai attacks (they both are attacks) was that a peaceful implosion or a velvet revolution if one wants to call it wa spossible. However after this I think the need is to get the kabila guards to fight themselves to allow the Indian Muslims to find their space and peace.

[RajeshA]

Narayanan,

Attacking Army HQ is no guarantee, that the Army or ISI will be decapitated. The guys are always on the move, going to some meeting or party.

So any such attack, would have to take into consideration a multitude of factors, and any drone attack, missile attack or aircraft bombing would have to be coordinated based on a lot of ground intelligence, public schedules of the corps commanders, etc. Their houses can also be targeted.

It may not be a bad idea to target their houses in the night, and all at once.

[Bibhas]

Media reporting (high level sources and all) that Rice is armtwisted (blackmailed) and was asked to choose between India and GOAT. Her stands have softened quite a lot. In the mean time Mulla Hafeez, the chief PigLeT, organized public rally in TSP, saw on TV (With lots of 'I did not do it, we dont kill civilian, blah blah...)

[enqyoob]

Attacking Army HQ is no guarantee, that the Army or ISI will be decapitated.

Decapitation strike is to show intent, and identify to the world that India has put the death warrant out on these guys as the terrorist-masters. That's the end of their credibility and their "useful" lives. Kiyani in mufti is no threat at all, if he dares not step into his office.

Yes, they can run... but attacking the offices shows that anyone who occupies them gets the same treatment too, so it is MUCH better than going to the trouble of precisely assasinating the individuals. In fact it is MUCH better if they don't get martyred in that attack, but get flushed out and then dealt with by someone else.

The target is the central power structure.

[enqyoob]

In the mean time Mulla Hafeez, the chief PigLeT, organized public rally in TSP

Dang! When the L-e-T organized huge rallies in the 1990s with Osama bin Laden making his annual

Call to Muslims to Kill Americans

the US and Indian Air Forces missed valuable opportunities to build them the sunken stadium in Muridke that they have always wanted. ANOTHER chance like that missed? The dilli govt. should resign.Could have "taken out" the top of the L-E-T and made it known that going to their rallies is a good way to get free tickets to Houristan.

[NRao]

The steps that GoI can take to really tackle terrorism probably won't ever be made available in the public domain for most will be successful if not made a public knowledge & going by our DDM telling about steps being taken for Airport Security & other future steps , terrorists have got a wikipedia constantly updated by DDM so i really hope , GoI not disclose vital information

I would be very pleasantly suprised IF GoI had any game plan. My contention is that they do not. Someone had posted - a few pages ago - that PM Gurjaral had shut down that wing of RAW. Why an Indian PM would do such a thing is really beyond me, but then Indian PMs are Indian PMs and do do such things for sure.

There are other means open to a government, even in the public domain.

[NRao]

N^3,

There is a problem, that was posted earlier, with taking out anyone across the YellowC. They can target high value targets too and perhaps as an extension, India does not have the means to tighten security enough to repel such a targeting effort.

What I can see happen is that PakJabis be moved to SA. For sure there is a remote in SA that is doing some of the control. And, SA WILL replace a PA at some time IF Pakistan is not redrawn.

[p_saggu]

N^3
Wrt the decapitating strike against Paki satan,
You mean taking these guys out more or less:
1. COAS
2. Deputy COAS
3. Crore Commander Rawalpindi area
4. ISI Chief
5. Dy ISI Chief

Problem is, it is not possible to take out even the top 3 in a sudden strike. There will always be sufficient time for these guys to escape the dragnet.

[ramana]

P-Saggu, If you get some of them the rest will get the message. This paralysis of who will bell the cat is the bane of Indian thinking. I am sure that was an Indian tale.

[enqyoob]

They can target high value targets too

This thinking comes from the Cold War Equal-Equal days. If India acts NOW, it is seen as the legitimate response of a nation to a series of horrible attacks on unarmed innocents, and done after the proof is in.

Question: In ANY war, they can attack India's top leadership. So is THIS to be the consideration? As ramana says, the ability to break through that thinking block is what would define leadership.

If Pakistan retaliates, it is total war, and that should be made very very clear. But note that I say do not target the civilian leadership at all - the coup and the Taliban will hang them, so why bother?

And again, I, being completely peace-loving, am POSTING this here, so that the Pakistani COASS, and all other ass*s can take leave and not show up in their offices. It is the OFFICES that I want turned to smoking rubble.

[SaiK]

perhaps we need a large rakshak crowd geharoing our own JCoS (pick one).

btw, do you want to know what does the candle lighter thinks?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_india_shooting "Pakistan has been attacking my country for a long time," protester Rajat Sehgal said at a candlelight gathering in Mumbai, one of a series of rallies across India. "If it means me going to war, I don't mind."

[Anujan]

P-Saggu, If you get some of them the rest will get the message. This paralysis of who will bell the cat is the bane of Indian thinking. I am sure that was an Indian tale.

I am sure the COAS has the briefcase. I will ask the cliched question at the risk of being labeled a SDRE shivering in his dhoti: "What if he presses the button" ?

1. Many will reply "oh but unkil has control of all the bums", but we dont know for sure.

2. Many will argue "oh but he is moderate and rational", yeah rite. Moderate COAS showed their rationality in '65, '71, Kargil, Parliament attack, Mumbai attack and GOAT

3. "Oh but we will second strike them and finish the problem once for all" is a bad argument. To make a macabre argument against it, the economic and human cost of Pakis nuking us will be 1000 fold the economic and human cost of 50 years of terrorism. Inviting a first strike and responding by a second strike will simply assuage our egos.

4. Much of Paki army institutional anger against us is because of the drubbing after drubbing that we have given them over the years. Their answer is in the form of jihadis killing us. If the top level is pest-e-shaheedized and if the mid level bearded fundoos come to power, that is the guarantee that in their desire for their 72 and to be labeled as an equal to saladdin, they dont press the button ?

5. Instead, wage an economic war. Make it clear that we are fighting for our civilization and any economic assistance from anybody will be viewed as an act of war against India. This includes any "friends of pakistan" or any "multilateral institutions". When the pakis are gasping for the last breath, insist that the only way they get baksheesh is by transparent, verified nuke nuding. Commit to no first use of nukes against pakis after nuke nuding. This will cause them to implode. If they dont and send jihadis after us, beat the crap out of them.

[samuel]

I think the idea is not to think of a pinprick as the end in of itself. We must come to the realization that this was an attack on India, and that we are at war. This is a zero sum game that we've been in for a long time. If we don't come to that realization, we might legitimately sit around discussing the merits of what the response to poking a pri*k would be.

Once we are clear on our objective, then it is a matter of getting it realized as opportunistically as possible, creating those opportunities as you go.

So, Pakistan needs to come to an end as it exists now and, in that context, this incident will allow us to ramp the escalation many fold. Take out targets that they will be forced to respond to, and end up blocking the Karachi harbor. Till what you ask, till they lose something big along the way to losing it all.

My rabid view of course.
S

[SaiK]

also think about the ip address of the deccan mujahiden links upto a russian server.. there is a bigger org that was training ISI itshelf in the backbone!~ me thinks., hence the war option is perfect.. that would ensure, all the eggs, LeT, ISI, porkis and the chia seeds, be broken in one shot!

[Rye]

IP addresses mean nothing -- Onion Routers can hide the real IP address of the point of origin. Strongly recommend that all BRites in India get hooked up to onion routers -- being anonymous in India is the only way to outsmart the violent m&#%^ers in Indian politics who will do all they can to censor news sites and blogs that they do not like.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_(anonymity_network)

[vsudhir]

Everyone but everyone knows that in these recessionary times, a war economy could prove a massive stimulus in its own right.

So there's always the possibility, even if 0.0001%, that the recently announced 75k Cr fiscal stimulus is actually to replace the cost of the 500 odd missiles and their payload that we're using to decapitate the TSPA/ISI top echelon on x'mas eve as the outsourced Santa's gift to the humankind.

[SaiK]

this war should be over in 10 days

[Johann]

- Weakening and ultimately destroying the PA's dominant institutional power by one means or another (whether military action, or co-opting the political class against the PA) is an essential goal.

-To imagine that the Taliban will stop being a threat without the ISI or PA is fantasy. The Pashtun areas have provided sanctuary and field forces for jihadis from settled areas for centuries. Nothing is going to change until Pashtun society changes, and that means expansion of the urban life.

People's eyes today are on the piracy, but the Islamic Courts Union and Al Shabab are much like the Taliban - only nea continuous action along the full spectrum has prevented them from taking over.

The Pashtun areas without the ISI will still be like Somalia. Better than the alternative in many ways, but still a huge and dangerous challenge, whether its containment or intervention or state-building.

- Any elected government, however determined will take the nuclear factor seriously. No matter how strong the state might be, and how weak the opponent might be.

Why else was Cold Start was about militarily inflicting punitive damage that by design did not threaten Pakistani national survival?

Attempting to decapitate the Pakistani military leadership is an exciting idea, but no government anywhere in the world would do it. Not even the ones derided or lauded for acting before thinking like the Americans and Israelis.

As long as nukes and fissile material are part of the picture, governments will not overtly strike in such a manner. To demand otherwise is pointless fantasy.

[ramana]

P-Saggu, If you get some of them the rest will get the message. This paralysis of who will bell the cat is the bane of Indian thinking. I am sure that was an Indian tale.

I am sure the COAS has the briefcase. I will ask the cliched question at the risk of being labeled a SDRE shivering in his dhoti: "What if he presses the button" ?

1. Many will reply "oh but unkil has control of all the bums", but we dont know for sure.

2. Many will argue "oh but he is moderate and rational", yeah rite. Moderate COAS showed their rationality in '65, '71, Kargil, Parliament attack, Mumbai attack and GOAT

3. "Oh but we will second strike them and finish the problem once for all" is a bad argument. To make a macabre argument against it, the economic and human cost of Pakis nuking us will be 1000 fold the economic and human cost of 50 years of terrorism. Inviting a first strike and responding by a second strike will simply assuage our egos.

4. Much of Paki army institutional anger against us is because of the drubbing after drubbing that we have given them over the years. Their answer is in the form of jihadis killing us. If the top level is pest-e-shaheedized and if the mid level bearded fundoos come to power, that is the guarantee that in their desire for their 72 and to be labeled as an equal to saladdin, they dont press the button ?

5. Instead, wage an economic war. Make it clear that we are fighting for our civilization and any economic assistance from anybody will be viewed as an act of war against India. This includes any "friends of pakistan" or any "multilateral institutions". When the pakis are gasping for the last breath, insist that the only way they get baksheesh is by transparent, verified nuke nuding. Commit to no first use of nukes against pakis after nuke nuding. This will cause them to implode. If they dont and send jihadis after us, beat the crap out of them.

In 1992, my taxi driver in New Delhi said "saab, they say that US is supporting Pakistan and they will nuke Dilli. I want you to know, as your are a NRI, that we will rebuild Dillii. It has been destroyed many times even under the Muslims by Timur, Nadir Shah etc. And we always rebuilt Dilli. And look at Hiroshima and Nagasaki after ten years they are productive places. But we will not allow Paksitan to get away even if US come to support them."


I salute that man for understanding the situation better than any arm chair general for the TSP will nuke Dilli while going down and that is a fact. In ~ 1996 there was an article in the Atlantic magazine about a crazy Colonel or Brigadier in BB's office who had a painting of mushroom cloud. The US reporter asked if it was Hiroshima the mad cap said no its Dilli. So that there goal.


If any one recalls that please post that.

[Rye]

The aim must be acheive all goals w.r.t. Pakistan with minimal Indian casualties -- getting other Indians killed as "collateral damage" must not be considered unless there is real and unambiguous *open* war imposed on India. Proxy wars must be fought by indirect means especially if the intent of the proxy war is to trigger a real conflict that will assist the goals of the other side. As Arthur Dent told the municipality officials as he lay down in front of the bulldozer that was about to demolish his house: "let us see who rusts first".

[enqyoob]

That was Hamid Gul, IIRC.

[ramana]

That was Hamid Gul, IIRC.

No. It was a unfamiliar name. The author was Robert Kaplan. Maybe someone can e-mail him.


Anyone else recalls that name?

[John Snow]

ramana garu here it is.

Privately, Indian officials have told some US interlocutors that India’s nuclear weapons are "assuredly secure" with its survivability and a chain of command ensured.
So why would Pakistan push the losing button? The answer lies in a chilling exchange related in a recent article in the journal Atlantic Monthly that is being circulated widely in the South Asia circuit.
In the article, writer Peter Landesman relates a hair-raising conversation he has with a retired Pakistani brigadier who was serving as an aide to Benazir Bhutto. On a visit to Brigadier Amanullah’s house in Islamabad, Landesman sees a landscape painting showing the Bhuttos with what he (Landesman) thinks is a rocket heading to the moon. He asks the Brigadier about it, and is told the painting is actually "A nuclear warhead heading to India".
The rest of the narrative in Landesman’s own words:
I thought he was making a joke. Then I saw he wasn't. I thought of the shrines to Pakistan's nuclear-weapons site, prominently displayed in every city. I told Aman that I was disturbed by the ease with which Pakistanis talk of nuclear war with India.
Aman shook his head. "No," he said matter-of-factly. "This should happen. We should use the bomb."
"For what purpose?" He didn't seem to understand my question. "In retaliation?" I asked.
"Why not?"
"Or first strike?"
"Why not?"
I looked for a sign of irony. None was visible. Rocking his head side to side, his expression becoming more and more withdrawn, Aman launched into a monologue that neither of us, I am sure, knew was coming:
"We should fire at them and take out a few of their cities—Delhi, Bombay, Calcutta," he said. "They should fire back and take Karachi and Lahore. Kill off a hundred or two hundred million people. They should fire at us and it would all be over. They have acted so badly toward us; they have been so mean. We should teach them a lesson. It would teach all of us a lesson. There is no future here, and we need to start over. So many people think this. Have you been to the villages of Pakistan, the interior? There is nothing but dire poverty and pain. The children have no education; there is nothing to look forward to. Go into the villages, see the poverty. There is no drinking water. Small children without shoes walk miles for a drink of water. I go to the villages and I want to cry. My children have no future. None of the children of Pakistan have a future. We are surrounded by nothing but war and suffering. Millions should die away."
"Pakistan should fire pre-emptively?" I asked.
Aman nodded.
"And you are willing to see your children die?"
"Tens of thousands of people are dying in Kashmir, and the only superpower says nothing," Aman said. "America has sided with India because it has interests there." He told me he was willing to see his children be killed. He repeated that they didn't have any future — his children or any other children.
I asked him if he thought he was alone in his thoughts, and Aman made it clear to me that he was not.
"Believe me," he went on, "If I were in charge, I would have already done it."
Aman stopped, as though he'd stunned even himself. Then he added, with quiet forcefulness, "Before I die, I hope I should see it."
It is this hopeless desperation that western officials are warning India about as New Delhi weighs the military option. A country without a future is quite willing to go down and try and take with it a country which is hopeful of its future despite its myriad problems.
For India, the dilemma is obvious: If it submits to this line of thinking (Pakistan’s irrationality), it risks being blackmailed into inaction; if it chooses to call the bluff, it invites the Amanullah solution.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... 387267.cms