Poll: Pokhran II not fully successful - The way ahead

[SwamyG]

Economic impacts on India might not be too severe, but our image as a respectable country will go down. We cant go on the path of NoKo or Iran saying to hell with the world, we do what we want. We're still aspiring to be a major world power.

Why would our "image as a respectable country" go down? In front of whose eyes? Doesn't a major world power have moral, economic and military might (including nuclear might) ?

[shiv]

Though, I feel GoI over emphasises on the fact that we need a 'credible minimal deterrence'. We have an arsenal which needs time to be assembled, time for the second strike to happen, by which time a lot of brethren would be dead already. A quick response all time ready nuclear ready arsenal is definitely the need of the hour. What we also need is a more than sufficient no. of warheads.

Long ago, in a moment of inspiration, I wrote the following passage. i apologise to the others who have already read it

Pardon me. but I am thinking of (God forbid) a day when a nuke explodes in an Indian city. Maybe you should pray that you are killed by that nuke rather than be exposed to reactions of those left alive:

The news the next day will be

"Massive blast in Jingorampur"

"A mysterious blast has devastated large areas of Jingorampur. The blast which occurred at 10 AM caused the ground to shake and people in surrounding villages reported seeing a bright flash. People ran out their houses suspecting that an Earthquake had occurred.

The district officials in the nearby city of Whacknagar said that although all communication had been cut off with Jingorampur - there was nothing to "be concerned about. This is a common occurrence due to power failures in Summer. The official said everything was under control. He confirmed that an earthquake could have occurred as the town was near a seismic zone - but there were no reports of any deaths so far."

A few hours later..

"Jingorampur flattened"

Thousands of people have been killed in what appears to have been a massive earthquake in Jingorampur..relief efforts are on..The central government is seized of the matter and an ex gratia payment of Rs 10,000 for the families of the bereaved has been announced."

The next day

"Death and misery in Jingorampur Quake"

"Eyewitnesss reported a blast and many people have been severely burned. Even people on fields have been killed. "I was reminded of pictures of the tsunami" said one witness. Jingorampur is located 400 Km from the coast. and a tsunami has been ruled out."

Some people have blamed the Army which had an ammunition dump in the area. An army rescue team member denied this. Asked why the Army team were seen wearing protective suits and masks the response was because the disaster was caused by a nuclear bomb explosion"


A day later..

"Has Jingorampur been nuked?"

"Reports from the Army and defence ministry sate that the disaster was caused by a nuclear explosion. NGOs were quick to blame the Atomic Energy Commission in India which is known to have a poor safety record.

A demonstration in Delhi to protest against slow relief efforts was lathi charged by the police. One protester blamed Pakistan for the disaster. This was rejected by the minister of state for lame excuses. Anti national elements of the right wing are trying to harm the peace process."

One week later...

"It has been confirmed that Jingorampur has been devastated by a nuclear bomb. A high power governmental enquiry has been constituted, headed by retired chief justice Blahblah to try and establish the source of the bomb. In the meantime the government has asked the people to maintain communal harmony. It thanked the government of Pakistan for its offer of aid, and rejected reports in the US media that a rogue Pakistani nuclear bomb had been exploded. "The US has so many bombs - it could have been a US bomb" said a minister - not wishing to be named""

Four days later

"Sehwag dropped from Cricket tour of Australia due to injury"
"Price of kerosene not to be raised even as Oil prices rise to $120 a barrel"
"TV returns to Jingopura - the first signs of normality"..

Did someone say "cycle of life" somewhere?

[Gagan]

Thanks to all the people who voted in this poll.
I agree that eventually even I felt that some questions needed to be better drafted, but hey this was the first time I ever conducted a poll.

So to summarize, from my POV:

Poll ended at 03 Sep 2009 12:17 am
1. Test immediately, and keep testing, as the economic impacts are not going to be longlasting. ................... 36% [ 34 ]
2. Test immediately, No signing upto CTBT ................................................................................................ 8% [ 8 ]
3. Test immediately, agree to signing CTBT without ratifying it .................................................................... 7% [ 7 ]
4. Test immediately, sign and ratify CTBT ...................................... .......................................................... 2% [ 2 ]
5. Don’t test immediately, the waters have been tested internationally. ........................................................ 5% [ 5 ]
6. Chip away at international opposition to complete acceptance as NWS with subcritical testing
and occasional overt testing, gradually advance nuclear tech and try to minimize the effect
to economic development. ..................................................................................................................... 36% [ 34 ]
7. Don’t test, Sign the CTBT as the data gathered is adequate for future simulations ..................................... 2% [ 2 ]

Total votes : 92

I think we can see what the majority BRFites want. They diverge only on the approach to reach that goal.
While the majority want an immediate round of tests, and believe that economic sanctions will not be long lasting, I think it is telling that a huge majority are just fine with a more 'chanakiyan' approach of a step by step end to the pressures mounted on India on this issue, while continuing to test when required. This is the approach the various GoI's have followed uptil now, it seems

AFAIK, Shiv-ji was one of the dissenters, per his confession vide:

I vote for sign immediately and forgo all testing and let Pakistan and China give us a nuclear umbrella.

[enqyoob]

Time 4 TL?

[Bheem]

up

we should let the thread live till 10th Sept

[ramana]

Whats on Sept 10th?

[alexis]

There is no doubt we should improve our deterrence. But it should be done in a covert manner so as not to invite sanctions. We cant afford any hurdles in path of development; being an economic superpower should be the priority.

Is the poll over?

[wig]

testing is now not so essential for deterrence. our not quite friendly neighbours; including the non state actor gentlemen, are aware that even a limited number of well placed fission weapons will guarantee mutually assured destruction. testing is reqired because of the research related spin offs. in the world of high energy physics and the behaviour of particles thence the possiblities are endless. it is naivete to imagine that anybody will disclose the cutting edge of research by publishing papers in such areas.
it is to remove bottlenecks and ensure that our scientists can validate theories, think ahead and proceed with further research that we need thermoculear tests and neutron bomb tests.
economic sanctions can be worked out and they will as our national economy grows. we have to concentrate on education and health. there is little that anybody can do to stop us. if we can esure transparent financial institution like sebi and the stock and commodity markets- even now we rank amongs the best- there is no reason to fear sanctions. the west knows and post its financial meltdown even western powers realise that there is only so much that a paper economy can do. the brick and mortar economy is our true strength and we need better fed and better educated personnel to carry it forward -not worrying about economic sanctions.
me thinks this is offtrack

[Gagan]

I feel India is sometimes too chanakiyan for its own good. There are instances where it is not prudent to rock the boat so to say. But 35 years of not rocking the boat except for '98 hasn't exactly bought India the dividends it has bought our neighboul who has done nothing but rock the boat and muddy the waters.
Playing the good boy will lead us to second rung status only, will eventually stunt our growth, mold Indian foreign policy to that of a second rung power, running into the arms of the masters for protection, instead of standing upto the enemy and looking into its eye.
Ultimately a nation is only as strong and resurgent as the mind of its leader. Without mincing words, let me say that India's failing have sometimes been its leaders.

[Bheem]

Whats on Sept 10th?

One more week for the controversy to die down. Also the poll has been killed which defeats the purpose of the thread

[Kersi D]

Those two are reflective of what India seems to be doing all these years. It means that more of the same to continue in the years to come. Try and obfuscate the issue by not testing, and keeping the options open, building the economy, then testing one fine day.
Managing the sanctions, everything goes back to normal, GoI heaves a sigh of relief and basks in the glory, before some BARC scientist gently bursts the bubble with a "Saar, minor error onlee. We will need to re-test onlee. "

My thinking is something similar.
Try and obfuscate the issue by not testing, and keeping the options open and building the SOLID economy.

THEN TEST.

K

[Gagan]

But the fear is now that that option is about to be closed once and for all. God knows what MMS intends to do in November.
The gurus in this thread who 'know' fear the worst.