Iran News and Discussions

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 17 Nov 2009 00:43

Indian Express: New Delhi plans to woo Tehran with offers of greater intelligence sharing, revival of defence training, as well as a possible launch of the latter’s satellite, but will remain non-committal on the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline

Found the original article. Very interesting indeed.

Link

New Delhi plans to woo Tehran with offers of greater intelligence sharing, revival of defence training and a possible launch of the latter’s satellite but will remain non-committal on the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline.

India’s objective, drafted a month after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad got a second term in July, is to engage more with Iran at a time when the West is treating it like a pariah over its nuclear programme.

“Increased isolation of Iran provides us with an opportunity... inviting the Iranian Foreign Minister to visit India at this juncture would be viewed as a big gesture by Iran,” an External Affairs Ministry official was quoted as saying during an inter-ministerial strategy meet.

A fresh invitation was sent following which Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is arriving on Monday for a two-day visit to call on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and meet counterpart S M Krishna.

While discussing terrorism emanating out of Pakistan, India will suggest greater sharing of intelligence on the movement of Lashkar-e-Toiba operatives who, according to electronic intercepts, move to Tehran or Zahidan. Last November, India had passed on “useful” information to Tehran on terrorist movement.

The issue of Indian Muslim students going to Qom for religious studies will also be taken up with Mottaki as these students are being targeted by Pakistani operatives for recruitment as militants against India.

On the agenda will be a visit by the topmost official of the Research & Analysis Wing, India’s secret service, to Tehran that has been delayed because of the formation of a new government in India and revamp of the intelligence set-up in Iran.

Iran’s strategy on Afghanistan — that all foreign forces should leave it within a specified time frame — will also be taken up with the emphasis that Tehran should not just be bothered about consolidating the Afghan areas adjacent to it. The second concern on Afghanistan will be addressed by inviting an Iranian delegation from the Narcotics Control Board to cooperate on plugging the movement of narcotics to the two countries.

One “big gesture” by India at the talks will be an offer to launch Iran’s commercial satellite through an ISRO vehicle for which the technical details — sent by the Iranians in July — have been sent to Indian Space Research Organisation for “assessing the nature of the satellite”.

The Mesbah, designed to travel in low earth orbit to assist in data communication over three years, was first timed for a launch by a Russian Cosmos-3 satellite-carrier but that did not happen. Last week, satellite maker Carlo Gavazzi Space Company of Italy refuted Iran’s claim that it would be launching the satellite after March 2011.

India would also use “softer defence options” to take forward their Joint Working Group on Defence Cooperation that has been dormant since 2005. It is proposed to invite more Iranians for defence courses and cooperation in limited dual-use areas. But there will be polite no to Iran’s request for a joint patrolling exercise in the Gulf — an “engagement of sensitive nature”.

On the IPI pipeline, India’s stance is that the 30 million standard cubic metres of gas per day being provided by Iran was “not a big amount” and that there were issues such as its delivery point, security through Pakistan and pricing which were yet to be resolved.

Its clear, the visit has been more of security and regional development related visit rather than economic or commercial.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 18 Nov 2009 23:50

Obama's Iran sanctions strategy is routed by Chinese, Russian rebuffs
Debka says that American sanctions alone will not be enough and right now America/Israel don't have many diplomatic options left.... Hint Hint.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 19 Nov 2009 00:48

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/delhi ... e/541995/2

Looks like a counter pressure strategy. One needs to follow and track the timeline in the last few years on Indo-Iran relations. My take is that, things were on track until Unkil put too much pressure on us to vote against Iran on the nuke issue in early 2006. Now that unkil is vehemently targetting india on every front, this is a nice strategy to send signals. Again a nice time line will give us a better insight.

http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpap ... r3363.html

That is a paper by Subhash Kapila, discussing the possibility of a India-Iran-Russia triangle. I dont want to come to conclusions, but as such looks like GOI is applying counter pressure on unkil, that if you suck up too much to china, we can change relations too.

Ananya · Post by **Ananya** » 19 Nov 2009 01:27

one curious question on the IPL pipeline. why can the gas be lequified and transported by Ship.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 19 Nov 2009 01:39

Ananya wrote:one curious question on the IPL pipeline. why can the gas be lequified and transported by Ship.

In conjunction, would also help if someone could answer, why they cant do a under-sea pipe line

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Nov 2009 02:00

muraliravi wrote:
Ananya wrote:one curious question on the IPL pipeline. why can the gas be lequified and transported by Ship.

In conjunction, would also help if someone could answer, why they cant do a under-sea pipe line

The undersea route for Iran to India runs quite deep and the sea pressures will be high. It would require quie thick walls to ensure they dont buckle. All cases inother countries are shallow seas.

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 28 Nov 2009 01:28

India votes against Iran at IAEA

NEW DELHI: India stuck to its opposition of Iran’s nuclear weapons by voting for a resolution in the IAEA on Friday rapping Tehran for building a secret enrichment plant.

The resolution, co-sponsored by Iran’s two biggest champions Russia and China, sailed through (25-3) the 35-member board of governors, helped along by India’s vote which was believed to be crucial. Countries like Brazil, South Africa, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Egypt and Turkey abstained and Cuba, Venezuela and Malaysia opposed the resolution.

There were concerns in India regarding its vote, but sources in the government said it was clear that while Iran had rights as an NPT signatory, India would not countenance another nuclear power in the region. Also, India holds the moral high ground on nuclear non-proliferation and many said this could take a hit if India was seen to be supporting, even tacitly, an Iranian weapons programme, which has been built with Pakistani and Chinese assistance.

The Indian vote, much like the Chinese sponsorship, came as a result of a lot of US diplomacy. The issue was discussed during the meetings in Washington earlier this week between the Obama administration and Indian officials, with even the US national security advisor holding a special conversation with NSA M K Narayanan.

While government does risk some heartburn in India and even with Iran, the government believes
India’s stand was consistent with its declared position. In an explanation of its vote, India reiterated its stand opposing Iran’s alleged quest for nuclear weapons. However, passage of the resolution is no guarantee that Iran will become any more transparent or flexible. In fact, Iran indicated the reaction could be exactly the opposite, and it could walk away from the IAEA altogether.

The IAEA resolution is a precursor to sanctions against Iran that is due early next year as the western countries try to squeeze Iran to reveal more about its nuclear programme.

News agencies said the resolution urged Iran to immediately halt construction of the Fordow enrichment plant and confirm it has no more hidden atomic facilities or clandestine plans. Iran has told the IAEA it developed the Fordow site in secret as a backup for other, known facilities in case they were bombed by Israel.

The last IAEA board resolution slapped on Iran was in February 2006 when governors referred Tehran’s dossier to the UN Security Council over its refusal to suspend enrichment and open up completely to IAEA inspections and investigations.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 28 Nov 2009 08:38

muraliravi wrote:
Ananya wrote:one curious question on the IPL pipeline. why can the gas be lequified and transported by Ship.
In conjunction, would also help if someone could answer, why they cant do a under-sea pipe line

ramana wrote:The undersea route for Iran to India runs quite deep and the sea pressures will be high. It would require quie thick walls to ensure they dont buckle. All cases inother countries are shallow seas.

ramana and others, the time has come to seriously invest in deep-sea pipeline. Earlier, towards the end of last century, India investigated three options for evacuating gas from Iran to India (apart from LNG using ships). One was deep-sea (with some stretches around 3200 metres depth) from Oman to India (with another pipeline from the South Pars field of Iran to Oman), the second was a shallow and coast-hugging pipeline within the territorial waters of Pakistan along the Makran coast and the third was the landline through Balochistan etc. The deep-sea pipeline was dropped after some studies as the cost and technological challenges were found to be not worth it, especially crossing the Dalrymple trough. The shallow water line within the territorial waters of Pakistan could not even start because of Pakistani objections. The landline therefore appeared to be the only feasible route.

The deep-sea at that point of time was very challenging though it was not considered impossible. The deepest at that time was the still-under-construction Bluestream project which was at depths of ~2200 metres carrying gas to Turkey across the Blacksea. Since then, as oil&gas explorations at deeper oceans proliferate in search of new fields and as technologies improve, the Oman-India gas pipeline does not appear as challenging as it was a decade back. In fact, gas collecting pipelines regularly operate at >2500 m depths in the Gulf of Mexico and even in KG Basin oil fields to collect gas from wells, though they may not traverse great distances. In East Timor field, the pipeline is being considered at depths of 3500 metres. Pipelaying barges are available today that work beyond 3500 m depths, they have more accurate positioning capability so that pipelines can be laid exactly over the chartered route and pipes can be built to withstand the pressure requirements.

As distances increase, pipelines become very cost effective and attractive. Unfortunately, with practically no possibility of either IPI or TAPI, due to unsettled situations in Pakistan and Afghanistan for the foreseeable future, the Oman-India deep-sea pipeline must be immediately revived for India's energy security with Iran linking to the Oman pipeline.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 28 Nov 2009 09:15

SSridhar wrote: ramana and others, the time has come to seriously invest in deep-sea pipeline.

This is also not a perfect solution, as the repeated sabotage incidents against deep-sea internet cables demonstrate.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 28 Nov 2009 09:22

Pranav, cables at sea are very different from 72 inch pipelines. Besides, cables are cut when ships anchor. No under-sea pipeline has so far failed that way to the best of my knowledge. If they fail, they can be repaired too just like how the cables are fixed. In any case, there will never be a perfect solution.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 28 Nov 2009 09:37

Not for a Punitive Approach to Iran: India

India, which voted for the IAEA resolution against Iran’s failure to implement fully all its safeguard obligations under the IAEA regime, has also made clear that this resolution should not be the basis of a “renewed punitive approach or new sanctions” against Iran.

Official sources in the Prime Minister’s delegation here, attending the CHOGM, said India’s support for the resolution was based on the key points contained in the report of the Director-General of the IAEA, Mohamed ElBaradei. At earlier Board meetings, India had consistently underlined the critical importance of dialogue between the Agency and Iran. It, however, felt that the conclusions drawn in Mr. ElBaradei’s report were difficult to ignore.

It was felt, these sources said, that the Agency’s safeguards system was the bedrock of the international community’s “confidence” that peaceful uses of nuclear energy and nonproliferation objectives can be pursued together and that the “integrity of the system” should be preserved.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 29 Nov 2009 18:23

Iran is going down the drain.
Approves USD 20 Million budget for supporting terrorists against the West

Iranian state radio says the country’s parliament has approved a bill earmarking $20 million to support militant groups opposing the West.

It was not immediately clear which groups would receive funding from Iran, but Tehran already backs the Islamic militants Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The report says the money will also be used to investigate alleged U.S. and British human rights abuses and plots against Iran.

State radio said on Sunday a committee that includes representatives from the intelligence and foreign ministries will decide how to divide the budget.

The move is seen as a reaction to U.S. and British criticism of Iran’s violent crackdown on protests after the disputed June presidential election.

sum · Post by **sum** » 29 Nov 2009 21:21

Iranian state radio says the country’s parliament has approved a bill earmarking $20 million to support militant groups opposing the West.

It was not immediately clear which groups would receive funding from Iran, but Tehran already backs the Islamic militants Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

At least the Iranians do it openly unlike the Na-Pakis who do it behind closed doors and expect the world's sympathy for fighting terrorists.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 30 Nov 2009 16:02

India proposes to invest USD 6.5 B in Iran oil&gas fields

India on Monday proposed to invest $6.5 billion to develop gas fields in Iran and sought more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from that country.

At the same time, India asked Iran to honour the 2005 LNG import deal and ensure secured supplies of gas through the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline. . . . it was keen to buy 5 million tonnes of LNG a year besides the ones signed in 2005, sources said.

On the $7.4 billion Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, India said it was willing to be part of the project provided Iran guarantees safety of the pipeline in Pakistan.

India said it would take delivery of the gas on the Pakistan-India border rather than the proposed sale point at the Iran-Pakistan border, sources said, adding this way Iran would be responsible for passage of gas in Pakistan and will have to bear losses if the pipeline is disrupted.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 30 Nov 2009 20:34

Iran wants to take the whole world.

Says IAEA is imposing 'Law of the Jungle'

Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said on Monday the UN atomic watchdog was imposing the "law of the jungle" by denouncing the Islamic republic over its uranium enrichment drive.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) "resolution against Iran is not logical. No one can bring any reasoning in face of such logic," Mottaki told a news conference.

"This is an act of bullying. Today, we call it the law of the jungle," he said in the comments carried and translated into English by state-run Press TV.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 30 Nov 2009 21:40

There is a continued power struggle *inside* the conservative Iranian power structure between those who want negotiated compromises, and those who want confrontation.

The Iranian team headed by Saeed Jallili (the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council!) negotiated a proposal, took it home, and found it shot down.

There are signs that Ali Larijani, the conservative former SNSC chairman who resigned after Ahmadinejad came to power, and current parliamentary speaker is teaming up with Rafsanjani. He announced the other day that he believes there is still room for diplomacy.

The pragmatic conservatives understand that Iran can not maintain a strong position without support from the Russians and Chinese, and that this is contingent upon making negotiations work. Without their support arms supplies become highly vulnerable, as does their diplomatic and economic position. The radicals on the other hand think that God is on their side, and that's enough.

The handling of the nuclear issue is just one of the many issues that have radicals and pragmatic conservatives at odds with one another.

Khamenei as Supreme Leader has been juggling both sides without really coming down clearly on side or the other. As long as he does this, things will remain both murky and unstable.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 01 Dec 2009 17:49

Ali Larijani is a sensible guy. Has always been. He will be there till the last mile.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 02 Dec 2009 00:47

Iran denies reports of $6.5bn Indian investment

"The negotiations (between Iranian and Indian oil and gas officials) has had satisfactory progress but we have not yet reached a final agreement concerning the amount of investment by Indian companies in Iran's fields, said Director General of Iran LNG Company Ali Kheirandish.

Iran offers 40 pct stake to Indian cos in gas field

Tue Dec 1, 2009 6:56pm GMT

* Iran offers 6 mln T/yr LNG to India firms

* Indian firms ready to buy stake in Iran LNG Co

* Iran offers Farsi block development rights to Indian cos

(Adds details)

By Nidhi Verma

NEW DELHI, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Iran has offered Indian firms a 40 percent interest in the development phase of its largest gas field in return for six million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the managing director of National Iranian Oil Co said on Tuesday.

With Western firms wary of investing in the Islamic state due to its nuclear row with the United States, Tehran has increasingly been looking towards energy-hungry Asian countries for investment to help exploit its vast gas and oil reserves.

State-run Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC.BO) and Hinduja Group would own 20 percent interest each in South Pars Phase 12 project, Seifollah Jashnsaz told reporters after a second day of talks with Indian companies on investments in Iran.

South Pars, the world's largest reservoir of gas, is shared by Iran and Qatar. The Iranian part is divided into 24 phases.

Jashnsaz said ONGC, Hinduja Group and India's Petronet LNG (PLNG.BO) would buy a stake in Iran LNG Co.

The investment in both South Pars development and Iran LNG would allow India to receive up to 6 million tonnes of LNG every year, Jashnsaz said, adding development of South Pars Phase 12 would cost $7.5 billion.

The deal has to be cleared by their respective governments.

SANCTIONS

Iran has the world's second largest gas reserves, almost 16 percent of the world's total, but currently has no major net exports partly because U.S. and U.N. sanctions have deterred investment by Western firms with expertise and technology.

Analysts say it lacks the technology to develop LNG terminals. ONGC chairman R. S. Sharma said NIOC subsidiary NAFTIRAN Intertrade Co will deposit funds with Indian banks that could serve us collateral and help Indian firms raise money for investment in Iranian assets.

"Another option is that payments to be made by Indian refiners for crude purchases can also be used as collateral.. Details have to be firmed up," he said, adding India imported 23 million tonnes of crude in the last financial year from Iran.

He said the deals will be finalised after obtaining government approvals by both countries.

Jashnsaz also said that Iran has agreed to give development rights for Farsi offshore block to Indian firms - ONGC, Indian Oil Corp (IOC.BO) and Oil India Ltd (OILI.BO).

He said next round of talks between India, Pakistan and Iran on transnational pipeline will be held this month in New Delhi.

"Next week India will specify the date of negotiation and we will restart negotiation in New Delhi. It will be three-angle meeting with India, Pakistan and Iran," he said (Editing by James Jukwey)

Equal stake for OVL, Hindujas in Iran's South Pars project

ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) and the Hinduja Group have each got 20 per cent stake in Iran's South Pars-12 project.

At the end of the second day of the meeting with Indian energy sector companies, the Managing Director of National Iranian Oil Co (NIOC), Mr Seifollah Jashnsaz, told newspersons that 40 per cent interest in development of Phase-12 of South Pars gas field has been offered to the two companies – OVL, the overseas investment arm of ONGC and the Hinduja Group.

He further said that the cost of developing the area is estimated at $7.5 billion. An agreement was inked between the companies here on Tuesday.

Naftiran Inter-Trade Company, subsidiary of NIOC, will own 40 per cent stake and the balance 20 per cent will be held by Sonangol of Angola.

ONGC will get 20 per cent stake in Iran LNG, which will convert the gas produced from South Pars field into LNG.

The South Pars project is to produce 3 billion cubic feet a day of gas, two-thirds of which is to be converted into LNG for export.

Iran offers 6 mln tonnes LNG to India-official

Iranians help build Kazakhstan highway

TEHRAN -- Kazakhstan’s six-lane highway between Astana and Schuchinsk, built with the help of an Iranian construction company, was inaugurated by the Kazakh President, Nursultan Nazarbayev.

The professional competence of Iranian specialists has influenced the Kazakh Minister of Transport and Communications to hire an Iranian expert for the first time as his advisor, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported on Monday.

The Iranian company Dena KZ was contracted to construct 51 kilometers of the 215 kilometer highway.

Other companies from Germany, Italy, Turkey and Kazakhstan cooperated in the project.

The highway passes near the Russia-Kazakhstan border and eases transportation in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

INSTC is a multi modal transportation route established on September 2000, in St. Petersburg, by Iran, Russia and India for the purpose of promoting transportation cooperation among the three member states.

The INSTC was later expanded to include eleven new members, namely Republics of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Ukraine, Belarus, Syria, Bulgaria and Sultanate of Oman.

This corridor connects the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf to the Caspian Sea, and extends to north Europe via the Russian Federation

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 02 Dec 2009 11:38

JE Menon wrote:Ali Larijani is a sensible guy. Has always been. He will be there till the last mile.

The Larijanis are a powerful family....but Khamenei seems more afraid of splitting the conservatives than making a clear decision on the nuclear issue.

That leaves the advantage with the radicals, since the the IRGC is the one that actually manages the nuclear programme, and Ahmadinejad has the bigger bully pulpit. Perhaps, if the Russians make it clear they will support sanctions on arms sales to Iran, the IRGC might change its position...

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 03 Dec 2009 06:41

>>Johann said...Nevertheless, one of the Bush administration's preferred options was to sit back and let the Israelis do the job over Natanz and Arak; just like they allowed the Israeli air force to wipe out the North Korean reactor at Al-Kibar in Syria in September 2007. Test polls showed the vast majority of Americans although opposed to US action supported Israeli self-defence.

Johann, If memory serves me right, you had once said, Israel will wait, till Iran gets an industrial scale capacity to enrich uranium, to strike. Where do things stand now?

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 03 Dec 2009 21:37

Hi Shaurya,

The IAEA reports as well as the government chatter indicate that Iranian centrifuge installation is far ahead of enriched uranium production.

There is no certainty over the reason for this disparity.

Maybe its a political decision by the Iranian leadership

However, there have been reports that they're grappling with technical problems with the centrifuges. The P-2 is a fairly sophisticated machine, and the Iranians chose to attempt to improve it. Plus of course there have been other problems - there are persistent reports of accidents.

Of course the Pakistanis also had a number of accidents but the suspicion is that Israeli and Western agencies have deliberately built dangerous flaws in to the equipment illegally procured by the Iranians, and there have been defections from some of their technical people. The overall effect seems to have been to make the Iranians very cautious and more than a little paranoid.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 Dec 2009 21:48

In the 70s the best bbooks on control systems engineering from McGraw Hill were by expatriate Iranians.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 04 Dec 2009 17:45

x post

shyamd wrote:Iran successfully simulates nuclear warhead detonation - report
DEBKAfile Special Report

December 4, 2009, 10:14 AM (GMT+02:00)
Nuclear-capable missile explained to Ahmadinejad

German intelligence reports that Iranian scientists have successfully simulated the detonation of a nuclear warhead in laboratory conditions, in an effort to sidestep an underground nuclear test like the one that brought the world down on North Korea's head earlier this year. DEBKAfile's Iranian and intelligence sources report that this development is alarming because detonation is one of the most difficult technological challenges in the development of a nuclear weapon. Mastering it carries Iran past one of the last major obstacles confronting its program for the manufacture of a nuclear warhead.

After this breakthrough, the German BND intelligence believes it will take Tehran no more than a year to perfect its expertise and stock enough highly-enriched uranium to make the last leap toward building the first Iranian nuclear bomb or warhead. DEBKAfile's military sources confirm that simulated detonation of a warhead takes Iran to the highest level of weapons development.

Using the example of Israel and other nations, Western nuclear arms experts have claimed in recent years that since the emergence of simulated detonation technique, nuclear tests are no longer necessary.

With this hurdle overcome, Tehran has set about restructuring its defense ministry for the coming task of actually making a weapon.

The new Department for Expanded Technology Applications - FEDAT was set up to speed up the military nuclear program. It is divided into sub-departments for uranium mining (to increase the output of the Yazd mines), enrichment (to guarantee the quantity of high-grade uranium needed for weapons), metallurgy, neutrons, highly explosive material and fuel supply.

Wednesday, Dec. 2, Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said: "The Iranian nation will by itself make the 20 percent (nuclear) fuel (enriched uranium) and whatever it needs."

President Barack Obama has reminded Tehran that it has until the end of the year for a negotiated accommodation on its nuclear program that will uphold its international obligations. However, tor Iran's leaders, progress toward a nuclear weapon is now unstoppable by any diplomatic means.

arun · Post by **arun** » 07 Dec 2009 07:58

Malaysia who currently Chairs the IAEA and ostensibly had defended Iran on the recent IAEA resolution criticizing them seem it have done that mistakenly. Presumably it was Malaysia’s intent to abstain as was the case with the other Muslim countries like Turkey, Egypt, Afghanistan and Pakistan :

KL recalls Vienna UN envoy over unsanctioned Iran vote

By Leslie Lau
Consultant Editor

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 6 — The Foreign Ministry has been forced to recall the country's envoy to the United Nations in Vienna after he voted against an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resolution criticising Iran for ignoring UN Security Council and nuclear watchdog demands by continuing to build its enrichment programme.

Foreign Minister Datuk Anifah Aman confirmed to The Malaysian Insider that the envoy had been recalled because "he did not follow procedures and consult the minister."

It is understood that Wisma Putra and the administration are concerned over international public perception after Malaysia, along with Venezuela and Cuba, voted against the IAEA resolution. ……………………

The Malaysian Insider

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 07 Dec 2009 17:04

Thats because Iran buys its sensitive equipment from Malaysia. So state dept has started paying visits to get them to stop it. Malaysia probably still wants the Iranian business it gets.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 08 Dec 2009 00:01

Shyam,

The KRL/A.Q. Khan procurement network also worked extensively in Malaysia for many of the same items.

arun · Post by **arun** » 08 Dec 2009 20:10

Iran’s President claims the US is blocking the return of the Mahdi

:

Ahmadinejad Reportedly Claims U.S. is Blocking Return of Mankind's Savior

Monday, December 07, 2009

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad claims the United States is attempting to thwart the return of mankind's savior, according to reports from Al Arabiya, a television news station based in Dubai.

Ahmadinejad reportedly claims he has documented evidence that the U.S. is blocking the return of Mahdi, the Imam believed by Muslims to be the savior.

“We have documented proof that they believe that a descendant of the prophet of Islam will raise in these parts and he will dry the roots of all injustice in the world,” Ahmadinejad said during a speech on Monday, according to Al Arabiya.

"They have devised all these plans to prevent the coming of the Hidden Imam because they know that the Iranian nation is the one that will prepare the grounds for his coming and will be the supporters of his rule," Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying. ..................

Fox News

Ananya · Post by **Ananya** » 08 Dec 2009 20:34

vinasakale veperetha budhi

Kailash · Post by **Kailash** » 14 Dec 2009 14:24

Iran deplores India's Yes vote on IEAE

What do we lose by giving them a Yes? now that 123 drama is all over?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 16 Dec 2009 15:25

Johann,a new development.The Israeli "clock" is surely ticking.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 958599.ece

Iran raises nuclear tension with missile test launchTimes Online and Tim Reid in Washington

Tehran claimed to have successfully test-fired a medium range missile today as the US said it would investigate a report in The Times that Iran had been working on a trigger for a nuclear weapon.

Iran’s state television channel reported that an upgraded version of its Sejil-2 weapon was fired this morning. The missile is believed to be capable of reaching almost any target in the Middle East, including Israel, Iraq and several American military bases in the region.

The Obama Administration said yesterday that it was investigating work on a trigger - one of the final stages in the production of the atomic bomb.

Philip Crowley, the US State Department spokesman, said: “It’s safe to say the United States Government will be investigating... the revelations this week about nuclear triggers.”

Related Links
US to investigate Iran nuclear trigger
US: sanctions against Iran needed urgently
Secret document exposes Iran’s nuclear trigger
He praised the report in The Times, calling it a “fine piece of journalism”.

Mr Crowley’s comments come as the US and its European allies enter a more aggressive phase in their attempts to halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions. A concerted effort will continue into next year to have a tough new set of UN sanctions against Tehran, something that can happen only with the co-operation of China and Russia, who have veto power as permanent members of the Security Council.

The revelations about the nuclear trigger were contained in confidential intelligence documents that were obtained by The Times and which foreign intelligence agencies date to early 2007 — four years after US agencies assessed that Iran had suspended efforts to produce nuclear weapons.

The documents reveal that Iran has worked on a neutron initiator, the component of a nuclear bomb that triggers an explosion.

A senior US official told The Times that if the documents prove to be authentic they underscored the need for new sanctions against Iran.

“The revelations that work has been done [on a nuclear trigger] do add a sense of urgency and these revelations certainly don’t hurt,” the official said.

Iran dismissed the report in The Times as a “scenario” hatched by Western powers. “Some countries are angry that our people defend their nuclear rights,” Ramin Mehmanparast, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, said. He added that when Western powers “want to pressure us they craft such scenarios, which is unacceptable”.

The secret reports detailed an Iranian plan to test whether the trigger device worked without leaving traces of uranium that the outside world could detect.

Iran insists that its nuclear technology is for peaceful civilian use — a claim that the West rejects.

Its uranium enrichment work is at the centre of fears about the programme because the process that makes the nuclear fuel can also be used to make the fissile core of an atomic bomb.

Israel, which views a nuclear-armed Iran as a threat, made clear this week that its patience with diplomacy was wearing thin and that the option of using military force was “on the table”, as Ehud Barak, the Israeli Defence Minister, said on Monday.

Major-General Amos Yadlin, the Israeli military intelligence chief, said that Iran was close to a technological breakthrough that would enable it to build nuclear weapons.

The countdown on Iran’s nuclear technology clock “has almost finished ticking”, General Yadlin declared in a speech at Tel Aviv University. UN monitors have confirmed that Iran has generated enough low-enriched uranium to build a Bomb if it were enriched to military grade.

Mr Barak said that there was still time for diplomacy but that time was running out. “There is a need for tough sanctions, something that is well and coherently co-ordinated to include Americans, the EU, the Chinese, the Russians [and] the Indians.”He warned “all players not to remove any options from the table”, adding: “We do not remove it.”

Tehran is already under three sets of UN sanctions for its refusal to suspend enrichment. The West, led by the Obama Administration, wants a further round after Iran rejected a UN-brokered deal to send its lowenriched uranium abroad to be refined into fuel for a civilian research reactor.

In Washington senior officials concede that President Obama’s efforts to engage Iran diplomatically have been rebuffed and that the time for such efforts is coming to an end.

One of the greatest challenges next year for Mr Obama and Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, will be persuading Russia and China to back new sanctions against Iran.

Russia has economic links with Tehran — it is, among other things, its greatest supplier of nuclear technology — and China has significant financial investment in Iran. Both are aware that they have significant leverage over the US when it comes to negotiations about the Iranian nuclear programme.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 17 Dec 2009 06:47

Hi Philip,

It has been said that the pragmatic conservatives in Iran were willing to settle for a bomb in the basement - i.e. an emergency nuclear capability, similar to what India lived with after 1974 for a number of years. That is in part why the same pragmatic conservatives are and were willing to accept a deal that would allow enrichment to take place overseas.

The radicals of course want much more than that.

The question is whether Israel can live with that. They *might* be willing to live with that if the deal actually went through. Not only would it limit the size of the Iranian nuclear arsenal, it would mean the radicals weren't in charge of nuclear policy. Both factors mean that Israel wouldnt be risking national survival by depending on mutual deterrence holding.

What they wont be willing to live with is Iran with the unchecked means to build a large nuclear arsenal and clear evidence that the radicals in charge.

So as with so many things involving Iran, it comes down to the internal factional struggles within the regime.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 17 Dec 2009 08:06

Johann: Hard to digest that Israel *might* consider living with a nuclear Iran (even with limited recessed capability). Precedence does not indicate the same. I am surprised at your above post.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 17 Dec 2009 08:46

Shaurya,

Israel has always expended enormous amounts of effort to try to prevent keep nuclear weapons or capabilities from their enemies hands. However its has had to be prepared to use nuclear deterrence to keep the peace if those efforts failed.

If Saddam hadn't overplayed his hand and annexed Kuwait in 1990, Saddam would have probably had an emergency nuclear deterrent by the 1995, and perhaps even have tested.

Even in 1990 a single raid could not have destroyed Saddam's recessed nuclear capabilities - Saddam came quite close to building a single device. Only a massive, sustained air campaign, backed by international sanctions and inspectors was able to prevent him from doing more.

Israel certainly did not *want* to rely on mutual nuclear deterrence in dealing with Libya, Syria, Iraq, Iran or even Pakistan. But it had to ask itself, what happens if we and/or our allies fail to prevent the unthinkable in even *one* of these cases?

This is why Israel has since the mid 1990s decided to invest in a second strike capability in the form of the Dolphin submarines - in order to ensure that deterrence will hold should counter-proliferation fail.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 19 Dec 2009 07:08

Iraq Complains of Iranian Border Incursion

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 19 Dec 2009 20:53

It's possible that the US or Israel are attempting to stir up pretexts for war, like a Gulf of Tonkin.

I particularly find George Friedman of Stratfor to be increasingly biased. His recent commentaries on Russia make me suspect his agenda. After Wolfowitz and Perle rammed through their invasion of Iraq, I angrily emailed Stratfor and said those two machiavellian crooks were behaving like Rosenkrantz and Guildenstern. Friedman personally emailed me back, expressing alarm that I could make such an allegation.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 20 Dec 2009 01:27

Meanwhile, Iran's crackdown against opposition protesters seems to leading to ever more gruesome discoveries:

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/12 ... tions.html

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 20 Dec 2009 06:30

Kraut Worries About US Approach to Iranian N-Weapons

Karan Dixit · Post by **Karan Dixit** » 20 Dec 2009 06:42

Israel has unveiled a new long-range unmanned aerial vehicle, known as Hermes 900, which is capable of reaching Iran.

Designed by Elbit, the Israeli defense electronics manufacturer, the drone is said to boost surveillance and be capable of hitting targets as far as Iran, some 1500 kilometers (950 miles) away.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=11 ... =351020104

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 21 Dec 2009 03:08

Montazeri has died. Too bad for Iran... he was one of the best hopes for institutional reform from within, as opposed to a catastrophic (and unlikely) overthrow of the Ayatollah regime.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20091220/twl ... f21e0.html

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 23 Dec 2009 06:00

Rudradev wrote:Montazeri has died. Too bad for Iran... he was one of the best hopes for institutional reform from within, as opposed to a catastrophic (and unlikely) overthrow of the Ayatollah regime.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20091220/twl ... f21e0.html

It is not Montazeri's death but the radical hardliners treatment of Montazeri and those like him made internal reform impossible.

That is why Montazeri went as far as to declare the June elections as completely fraudulent, and the current regime as a repressive dictatorship.

The regime's response has been to try and delegitimise him in death - state news agencies refused to refer to him by his title of 'ayatollah'. Khamanei himself described Montazeri after his death as someone who failed 'God's test', and would go to hell unless God showed mercy on him.

Of course Khamenei has a particular beef since Montazeri publicly question his suitability to be declared marja-e-taqlid (ie ayatollah or ayatollahs) back in 1997, and spent many years under house arrest for it

The extent of the split within the clerical establishment is clear from the fact that despite Khamenei's condemnation 6 out of 12 current ayatollahs attended Montazeri's funeral. Khamenei would not be able to get that many to show up if he were to kick the bucket tomorrow.

Public turnout at his funeral has been huge. Khamenei wouldnt be able to get that many to show up if he kicked the bucket today