Rudradev wrote:archan wrote:I think kgaon's idea of having the threads that are clearly "out there" is a good one. There is a need for a team of dedicated users who will carry the threads forward, diligently report OT stuff so we can keep them focused on their clear, narrowly defined thread objectives. Let us try this out. If we need to create an email mailing list for this, then lets do it.
I'm up for the email list and subsequent efforts, count me in.
In theory the revised nuclear doctrine could materialize in one possible way as:
1. Revision of No First Use to something along the lines of Russia's new doctrine: nuclear weapons will be used as deemed necessary to deter aggression of any kind against our vital interests.
2. An unambiguous declaration that the stability of the Karzai government in Kabul after the NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan is a vital interest of India, and that any covert or overt aggression or destabilization attempts against it will be considered a threat to our vital interests and responded to accordingly.
3. Thus effectively we will bring the Karzai government in Afghanistan- including whatever Pakhtun elements are co-opted by Karzai's own negotiations (as opposed to an ISI brokered coalition) under the Indian nuclear umbrella.
4. When the first TSPA-strengthened Taliban columns cross the Durand line to reclaim "strategic space" this will give us an immediate causus belli and an opportunity to conduct a massive first strike against TSPA assets, Pakistani strategic weapons sites and ISI terrorist training camps.
4. Any attempted retaliation by the Pakistanis will result in an even more extensive second strike against all large and middle sized Pakistani urban centres.
5. In effect we will make plain our intent to exercise our nuclear deterrent against any repeat of a large scale combined Talib-TSPA invasion of Afghanistan that enabled the quick rise of the Taliban in 1996-99.
This will leave the Pakistanis with only sub-conventional options of terrorism and destabilization against Kabul. Our armed forces and intelligence services will meanwhile assist Afghan intelligence in building it's capability to retaliate against Pakistan through sub-conventional means.
The balance of power in Af Pak will thus be maintained even after NATO's withdrawal.
6. With NATO out of the picture in Afghanistan and India's own NWS status widely accepted in the world today, Pakistan will not be able to get out of this situation by negotiating with a gun to it's own head. The West will not care if India nukes Pakistan once it is safely out of the region. "Nuclear Flashpoint" arguments hold no water whatsoever in the post 123 era when India has NSG recognition and civilian nuclear deals with five or six countries. In truth there will be nothing stopping us from conducting a massive first strike against Pakistan, once the US is out of Afghanistan.
6. If the Pakis call our bluff and try to invade Afghanistan, we make short work of the TSPA and it's crown jewels with 50 or 60 Agni, Prithvi and Brahmos delivered warheads within the space of about 6 hours. Phalcons will remain aloft to detect anything incoming that the Pakis actually have a chance to get off the ground.
7. The beauty of this strategy is that the Pakistanis won't see it coming unless they actually believe we would nuke them for Afghanistan's sake. Given our past behavior the very idea is so unlikely that the Pakis will not have prepared themselves for it at all (as compared to an eyeball confrontation with IA along the LoC/IB when they will be loading their nukes onto F16s and shrilly advertising the fact). They will think we are bluffing until they actually see the suns rise at night.
8. The benefits once we have nuked them? Obvious. The Gordian knot of Paki-US dynamics we have been talking so much about, will have been slashed... the only workable solution. US love for it's whore will simply not be an issue anymore... who is the US going to bed at any cost to us, when we have demolished the whorehouse itself?
Besides, in truth, 2 or more of Pakistan's 3.5 friends will secretly heave deep sighs of relief that the migraine is gone for good. In fact our use of a nuclear first strike to solve the Pakistan problem will open up a new spectrum of solutions that they can now freely explore as solutions to their own problems... solutions they never dared consider openly before for fear of the Hiroshima taboo.
Like the guy in a social situation who is the first to belch/fart/yawn/cough... we will be doing the FODP a favour by making it ok for them to do the same also. And once the initial unpleasant odor or noise has cleared... they will thank us for it.
As for PRC... I think they will sense a new urgency to resolve outstanding issues with us and move on to a mutually beneficial relationship, once we have shown the capacity to resolve our own outstanding issues in a proactive manner.
Then we can go on to fulfill our goals of social development, economic growth and cooperation with our neighbours in an environment of genuine peace. As opposed to "peace with Pakistan".
