Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -II

[surinder]

^^^ Briahaspati, self-centered self-focussed leaders usually lead to disastrous consequences for the country. Why in PRC's case have they succeeded so brilliantly. By success I mean pulling PRC out of the poverty to now 2nd largest economy, poised to be largest economy by 2020. Also national success of gaining & consolidating territory. After all, personal power pursuit have had disastrous consequence for us, both inside and outside.

While it may be true that hardline attitudes for PoK maybe a result of internal power politics, but is it simply a matter of how strongly PRC would puruse an action, or is it whether it will pursue it all or not. In other words, would the behaviour of oscillate to the other extreme if the other faction had won out?

[Sanku]

For Surinder, an old article by Airavat...

http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/SRR/Volume13/airavat.html

[Sanku]

I don't want to make this a sikh-anglo thread. No one is contesting that there were multiple reasons for the failure. Nor am I looking to assing blame. I am simply pointing out the the Gangetic Valley's eager participation against the Indic empires of Marathas & Sikhs.

Which was less than Maratha's and Sikhs own far more eager participation towards that effect, lets not go there please, otherwise I will need to start quoting from Sikhi-wiki etc...

That there might other reasons for defeat is besides the point.

No, there are more important reasons, those are the point, the reason you chose to take up in fact is the one which is the beside it.

If they the Sikhs/Punjabis later became collaborators of British is after the the trauma they faced by the British with Purbia help, not before.

Oh no, read the Sikhi Wiki, some Sikhs collaborated from the very first war. Also, if you can find reasons to justify the Sikhs backstabbing fellow Sikhs, surely the Purbia's can be ascribed reasons too as well?

As far as the charge of "they did not dismantle the power of RoP when they had the chance" exists -- well for better or for worse, barring the 1 year period post 1947, NO ONE in India took extensive steps to do that.

That is not correct. Indian Punjab (current day Haryana, Punjab, HP) was denuded of ROP. This was a violent couter-retaliation for partiion. No population center (with one exception), community, building, institution survived the onslought.

Exactly what I said, if you see, it took the trauma of Partition within punjab state,

The desire of the "core" of India to compromise with the ROP and have other places pay the price of that compromise is intact.

No more and no less than other parts, to not accept it would be willfully avoiding the truth.

[munna]

For Surinder, an old article by Airavat...

http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/SRR/Volume13/airavat.html

Sanku actually Surinder has a point whereby Turko-Mughal systems of power in NW India (Haryana, Punjab and Himchal Pradesh) have been demolished forever. The WKKs you find in Delhi are without any power base in the region and that includes pujniya PMji. Anybody who is a WKK faces trouble in the regions both politically and socially. Similarly Gujarat and Maharshtra to some extent have freed themselves from the clutches of Mughal imperialist rule.
I thought and felt during Ram Janmbhoomi Andolan that finally the core was coming to assert its true and idependent identity of being rooted in the lay of land. The core sent over 50 MPs alone to the nationalist dispensation and caused a revolution of sorts ie second coming of Dharma in India. However I was disappointed to see all of the good peter out into a big casteist slugfest that has thrown nothing but "political avocados" ie motiveless and rudderless verdicts that have destroyed the nationalist dispensations while allowing the inimical groupings to strengthen themselves from other bases.

My question is this, why for once can the region not put aside fratricidal tendencies (mainly caste based discrimination) and unite itself behind a national cause and help its less numerous civilizational cousins who are battling it out on the fringes?

80+ Lok Sabha seats???? For god's sake

The core can turn around India in 5 years if it deems so and there is no escaping the fact that it is refusing to do so in any measure. Period

Wars of the past are elections of today and core should quit the fence sitting now.

PS: Before you think I am a biased player, I have spent a decade and a half living in length and breadth of UP and saw some of its best moments in national politics unfold before these eyes.

[Sanku]

Munna-ji there are two different points here,

1) The problem statement

2) The analysis of reasons.

I submit that I do not see a issue with the problem statement (deliberately not spelling it out) -- however I wish to put on record that the reasons that Surinder has put forward are flawed (and this is based on historic data points and not a perspective or a point of view)

Yes the problem exists, as it still does in many other places still, and I would not offer simplistic solutions to the problem or "hope" of solution. It is just that it is compounded by the sheer demographics in this case.

[brihaspati]

Surinder,
sometimes the long term consequences of current actions by "leaders" are not immediately apparent. Sometimes opposing one leader's action by another leader takes the form of undoing what the "other leader" had done. This becomes necessary out of trying to remove the influence retained by those who rose with the previous leader who continue on the previous leader's policies if continuity becomes an important source of legitimacy.

Thus Deng needed to go against the policies of Maoists to remove the Maoist influence. This happened to coincide with economic development by releasing some of the constraints of Mao-era. But Deng retracted where it threatened his personal power when a neo-Maoist style uprising was attempted. this was the classic style which Mao employed - although now the students were talking of a new radicalism against the "old order". One of the favourite slogans of 1966 young Red Guards translated as "bombard the headquarters/centre".

Mao's personal power seeking went into military adventurism and gained territories for China which later on came in handy.

The only difference in the Indian case is that unlike India, the Chinese communists took their own admin system and personnel from their base areas into Peking admin, and most of the KMT setup either escaped or were removed. Whereas Indian Republican gov basically top-dressed an admin setup that was entirely Brit built for serving Brit interests. the Indian leadership lacked any taste of expansive militarism -and had no real roots in the military that also had any ideological underpinnings of expansionism. Compared to this the Red Army was a political army - imbued with the doctrine and objectives of the CPC. This massive unification could allow an weilding of power by Mao and others not imaginable in the group led by JLN - whose indecision and hesitation and self-restrictive "values" did not bode well for territorial consolidation. Only one Sardar, that too at the number two position was no match for the Chinese scenario.

[brihaspati]

The UP-Bihar versus the two end points of the Ganges-Indus arc debate :

(1) historical aspect to understand as a possible explanation is the one I proposed and which Sanku ji thinks is only a partial reason, that out of struggles with invading forces, the hard-core resistors were either thinned by attrition and conflict or escaped to buy time and fight back elsewhere. Those who stayed back adopted a mixture of adaptation/collaboration and occasional opportunist hit-backs perhaps out of a concern for their porperty and power.

(2) an interesting aspect that Sanku ji raised was about the possibility of hawk-dove survival strategies of adopting a mixture of collaboration/submission/fightback being applied by the "residents" of UPB. What is interesting for me is that this particular line of thinking actually has an interesting practical fall out. Most "mixed" strategies have a probabilistic interpretation. What does it mean in case of a large group? An individual may adopt one of the options with certain probability at different points in his life. For a group, different subgroups may adapt this option at the same time - where the proportion of thsi subgroup in the whole society is proportional to the "probability".

Now if the latter indeed happened, it does point to the possibility that a subgroup did emerge that adopted the collaboration and boot-licking method - and if that helped to gain advantages that they desired - perhaps that method will become a permanent feature of this subgroup.

This is what I had described in that once successful [in terms of the objectives of that subgroup] this method will tend to assume the strength of a "philosophy" of toadying up to the invaders or their ideologies, and will be sought to be claimed as the applicable philosophy for the whole society. Even this subgroup may delude itself and claim that it was always th emethod of the entire society in the past.

(3) I agree that this method has had its impact and play-out in all corners of India subjected to the invasion dynamic. But its impact also has a much greater association with the UPB, simply because of the regions numbers and historical presence the "collaborator" subgroup will also be proportionately larger in total size and therefore country-wise impact.

(4) we cannot blame a present generation for what its ancestors did or did not do in the past. We can only blame those of their actions that they are repeating blindly from their ancestors and refusing to recognize or acknowledge the error. This is what we can look for in UPB and elsewhere now and criticize.

(5) One of the ways to compensate for and correct UPB is to show solidarity among those who recognize the errors and agree to act in common, forgetting the interregional distrust coming from the past. An united front containing both people of UPB origina nd outside of UPB can go a long way towards pressurizing the UPB deviation.

[Atri]

The Indus-valley and the Gangetic valley have to reconcile. Furthermore, they have to understand that they have shown consistent lack of ability to project power longer and farther after defeat of Harshavardhana by Pulikeshi. This is the event which seems to have triggered some sort of "evaporation" of valour within the power-centres of Indus and Ganga valley.

Ganga valley was the centre of power in India for long time before this event. Indus valley ceased to be a influential power-centre with Mahabharat and subsequent dessication of Saraswati. Except for early days of Harshavardhana (who was from thanesar, Greater Punjab) and Ranjit Singh, Indus valley's contribution towards socio-political consolidation of India as a whole has been zilch. Apart from 1857, Ganga valley has shows consistent lack of resurgent ability too. It has been the power centres of Rajputana, Narmada-valley, krishna-godavari basin which have shown the consistent resurgence (talking in terms of dynasty not one good king OR an ideology). However, Deccan and Rajputana lack the manpower to spill-over into both Gangetic and Indus plains to drive out the foreign influence and consolidate the region.

The classic confusion seen in the action so Pune Darbar while dealing with people from Ganga and Indus consistently for 100 years is example of the effect that this Sindhu-Ganga dichotomy leads to. Whom to liberate first Ganga OR Sindhu is the age old question which has been in the minds of any body who is in trying to think of conducting the "clean-up". Ultimately both Ganga and Sindhu screwed deccan and refused to cooperate. Sindhu at least became sustainable after Deccan gave up on it (Sikhs). Ganga did not.

This confusion is still seen in many discussions here as well. What to go for first - Sindhu OR Ganga? they are like evil twins and without cleaning both, India won't be liberated. People from both the valleys should understand this and try and cooperate with Deccan and the indic DI Axis which has been activated since past 300 years.

From where I see it, both Sindhu and Ganga have failed terribly. The confusion of Marathas while dealing with the non-cooperative people from lower-gangetic valley is seen in their actions while the loot of Bengal. For 10 years, there was continuous plunder where ordinary hindu suffered along with abduls (as usual, qazis were thrown out of villages which were consitently raided by Marathas). This is seen today in map of post-partition India. Those areas which were plundered and mopped (incompletely) by Marathas have managed to stay in ROI. But while doing so, Marathas incurred the wrath of the local populace who were not seeing the whole point of this resurgent movement which went on for 170 years and stable reign of 10 kings. The nationalistic point of Marathas is totally missed and they were branded as looters. While their actions make them deserving beholders of this title in some region, the whole movement is understated by our education system since 1857.

While Sikhs were allowed to "masturbate" (I apologize for the usage of this term) about their by gone glory and Ganga-valley was raped with 10 million murders post 1857 (sadly, most of which were assisted by soldiers of Sindhu-valley as revenge of 1849), the point of deccan's resurgence was understated and hence ignored. This is still being ignored.

There is something which both Sindhu and Ganga valley has lost over the period of 1400 years. That something is replaced by the Mercantile and mercenary character. Both Sindhu and Ganga showed a momentary promise in form of Ranjit Singh and 1857, but they failed to contiue (for various reasons). Marathas failed owing to their incomplete grasp of psyche of mango-abdul and power-centre and more importantly Ganga valley. There were no "power-centre" in Sindhu valley when Marathas were calling shots. The Sindhu rose after defeat of Marathas in 1802 (Battle of Assaye). There was 40 years of vacuum provided by Marathas to Sindhu valley at the huge expense of Panipat (coupled with costly betrayal by both Sindhu and Ganga valley).

I am sure two gurus of mine here are exchanging a friendly fire while discussing "history and politics onlee" and I am sure there is nothing personal in it, this discussion too is sign of this dichotomy which has been visible between these two power-houses of India ever since demise of Aurangzeb in 1707. And this is how Deccan viewed at these interactions from Pune. And this is how Krishna-Godavari still views Ganga valley (sindhu is no longer in ROI).

Please lets focus the discussion on "what is that something which both of these power-houses have lost" and then "how to find it and instil it again in the minds of both these houses".

[RajeshA]

I would be rather cautious about letting islamist stewing go to extreme lengths.

brihaspati garu,

I see it this way. Islamism is a train and if we put everything into stopping it, we would only waste our energies, and instead of stopping, it would at the maximum only slow down a bit - with energies I mean appeasement, jizya, or military confrontation.

However if we throw a lot of coal into the engine, we can speed it up, and bring about a crash.

There is not a single country or region that has any precedence of such stewing leading to turning away from Islamism.

It would be possible to change form there - but there has been only one unambiguous example - that of the Reconquista in Spain. The longer time you let a region stew in Islamism, the harder and more brutal are the techniques needed to get rid of the roots later and the process does not take place automatically. We can ponder Iran, Arabia, Iraq, Malaysia, Turkey, Indonesia, and the sub-Saharan African Muslim dominated countries, including the classic case of Somalia - none, absolutely none changed from within or broke up after long and hard stewing.

Pakistan is already 96% Muslim. That figure can move only higher.

To be honest, I don't consider the above countries as really riding the same tiger as Pakistan.

In Pakistan, the Islamists have always been a partner of the establishment and the Jihadis have always been an employee of the establishment. Not only that, in Pakistan there is a proliferation of extremist Islamist parties and Jihadi groups.

In Pakistan, the establishment is corrupt to the core, and they have corrupted the Islamists along with them. On BRF one has heard of Mullah Diesel. Also the proliferation of Jihadi groups has meant that there is no central authority amongst the Jihadis either on whom to look upon. Even the Chief of Army Staff, the Chief Terrorist does not enjoy much reverence. The Jihadis know that he too is corrupt, and sleeps with the Crusaders. The multitude of tribes and ethnic groups living in troubled regions of Pakistan, has meant another dimension of militant groups outside of state control or only partially under their control.

So we have on the one hand Islamists and Jihadis who have been corrupted along with the establishment and on the other a proliferation of them on a scale and tribal and sectarian allegiance which does not allow centrality of control.

That is alright if future Indians do not feel nauseous and squeamish about what then they will have to do to carry out the clean-up. If we cannot be sure about such ruthlessness, then it is better to intervene before extreme stewing and actively break up Pak and of course China's bloated empire.

The trick is to corrupt all Islamist groups to such an extent, that they remain Islamist only in name. The trick is to have the Jihadis spill so much blood and fill the newspapers with stories of their blood-thirst, that man loses all faith in their religion. What India would need to provide is simply a bridge to the land of sanity, where there is value of human life.

[Atri]

What about the splinters, Rajesh ji? The cure for Sindhu valley goes via Ganga valley only. The proposition which you gave forth (in managing tsp failure dhaga) has this drawback.

Even if TSPA is dismembered and "enclaves" for "minorities" are set up in pakjab and Sindh, the preferential treatment towards "Dharmiks" to such an extent for such a length of time that RoPers start converting to Indic fold (within 20 years, you say) can happen only when Ganga is cleared off.

I would like to make a statement. The spiritual father for "idea of Pakistan" is not 3.5 fathers, it is Upper Ganga valley. It is from here, that this idea arose, it is here that sought legitimacy (in principle, not political). the 3.5 men are merely the foster-fathers of this Child of Ganga.

The fathers in Ganga valley will not allow this child to die so easily because it then means that the guns will turn towards them. TSPA is an insurance for many other players apart from Saudi Arabia and Turkey. It is primary insurance of string-holding Islamists of upper Gangetic plains. The child and father will have to be addressed simultaneously.

There cannot be a "serial" algorithm to tackle this problem. This is an "Accumulated Junk" of 1000 years. It has to be addressed in parallel. This is again what I emphasized in my previous post. The "confusion of Pune" was precisely this in 1700's.

[RajeshA]

Atri ji,

To be honest, I haven't given much thought to the Gangetic Plains vs Indus Plains, so I would not want to stretch out my neck out too much.

I do think however that some solutions to the Indian Muslims in the Gangetic Plains lie in the Indus Plains. If the flags of RoP come down in our West, the level of integration of Indian Muslims into the Indian mainstream can only be facilitated.

On the one hand, the Indian Muslims would have witnessed the true and full potential of the evolution of their religion, while on the other hand a victory of Dharma over RoP in the West, from where RoP entered Bharat, would give them pause if they hold any hopes of some ultimate victory of Islam in the Indian Subcontinent, and base their segregation from the mainstream on that hope.

I think it is important that in our endeavors to reform our West, we do not disturb the internal peace in India, and that we also do not lose the pillars of our Constitution doing it.

Basically the collapse of Pakistan and its subsequent fall into barbaric chaos is something over which the Indian Muslims in the Gangetic Plains do not have much control over.

[Prem]

="

munnaI thought and felt during Ram Janmbhoomi Andolan that finally the core was coming to assert its true and idependent identity of being rooted in the lay of land. The core sent over 50 MPs alone to the nationalist dispensation and caused a revolution of sorts ie second coming of Dharma in India. However I was disappointed to see all of the good peter out into a big casteist slugfest that has thrown nothing but "political avocados" ie motiveless and rudderless verdicts that have destroyed the nationalist dispensations while allowing the inimical groupings to strengthen themselves from other bases.My question is this, why for once can the region not put aside fratricidal tendencies (mainly caste based discrimination) and unite itself behind a national cause and help its less numerous civilizational cousins who are battling it out on the fringes? 80+ Lok Sabha seats???? For god's sake The core can turn around India in 5 years if it deems so and there is no escaping the fact that it is refusing to do so in any measure. PeriodWars of the past are elections of today and core should quit the fence sitting now.PS: Before you think I am a biased player, I have spent a decade and a half living in length and breadth of UP and saw some of its best moments in national politics unfold before these eyes

Question, the above might be reason for ISIlamist to keep these folks tied to fake secularism as well unnecessary issues keeping the Core down and consequently the country. Every time some one mention co-culture of Gangu-Jamni ( giving birth to gangus), i almost get sick. This core is not only the weak point of Indian civilization but also in the grip of Non Indian ethos following powercentres. Either it get revived or removed if Indians want to sustain their way of life. Lets wait if Baba Ramdev can gather these lost souls and make good use of them .

[Atri]

Atri ji,

To be honest, I haven't given much thought to the Gangetic Plains vs Indus Plains, so I would not want to stretch out my neck out too much.

I do think however that some solutions to the Indian Muslims in the Gangetic Plains lie in the Indus Plains. If the flags of RoP come down in our West, the level of integration of Indian Muslims into the Indian mainstream can only be facilitated.

On the one hand, the Indian Muslims would have witnessed the true and full potential of the evolution of their religion, while on the other hand a victory of Dharma over RoP in the West, from where RoP entered Bharat, would give them pause if they hold any hopes of some ultimate victory of Islam in the Indian Subcontinent, and base their segregation from the mainstream on that hope.

I think it is important that in our endeavors to reform our West, we do not disturb the internal peace in India, and that we also do not lose the pillars of our Constitution doing it.

I agree with your idea, Rajesh ji. But this is precisely where the anomaly manifests itself as both beginning and end as a circle.

In his book "In spite of all gods: strange rise of modern India" by a pathetic angrez Edward Luce, i have learnt something fascinating. This guy blames "evil hindutvavaadis" for all negatives of India, this shows where he stands.

However, there is one anecdote which this guy shares. He went to Darul ulum deoband and questioned them about things happening in Afpak and pak-proper and how does the seminary reconcile with the facts and behaviour? After deliberations, the Mullahs answered, that is Pathan and Punjabi culture and nothing to do with Islam. The mass, author and other mullahs agreed to this explanation.

Upon demonstrating "climax" of Islamism in TSP, Deoband and other seminaries of Ganga valley will shout "this is not true islam onlee". This will also create confusion in Dharmiks regarding contradictory behaviour of Indian Mullahs. hence, it needs to be parallel solution. It is impossible to bring Sindhu valley under Dharmik dominion without interference of fathers from Ganga valley. They won't allow Hindu to unify, nor will they allow GOI to become so overtly "dharmik". Sekoolarism will be preserved onlee, by tooth and nail.

[surinder]

Sanku, just a quick note, before I scoot out for an extended period of time. You seem to be confusing a fact, with an explanation of why the fact happened. All I stated is a fact (the Purbia collaboration in liquidation of Maratha/Sikh empires). That fact is a separate item, the explanation and/or justification of that is a separate item. We cannot erase a fact by the justification offered for it. You have concerned yourself only with the justification and explanation of it: how the Sikhs/Marathas were themselves weak and hence responsible for the downfall; how other Sikhs did their co-religionists in; how Sikhs betrayed and collaborated against the Purbias later on. These subsequent facts may all be true. The Sikhs may be bigger treasoners than the Purbias, but that does not negate the Purbia participation in British war efforts.

I have no problem if you state that Sikhs stabbed India badly. Fact is a fact, i cant change it. Explanation of a fact is not to be used as a tactic to erase a fact.

That said, there is a great deal of incoherence in India when you bring up UPB participation in suppressing Indic revival. Our education system has only played up the perepherals treason only fully, while downplaying and not acknowledging their own deeds. Every school kid knows that Sikhs stabbed India in 1857; were it not for them we would be independent in 1857. But UPB-induced education system has obsufcated their own record, one which as as bad, if not worse.

[Manishw]

@ Atri Ji , There was friendly fire between two gurus and no prizes for guessing as to whom I was rooting for though having no bone in this debate, but you have shown the Sindhu valley in a completely different light which I had failed to see.Why do we consider ourselves vulnerable, small etc. today? though people looking from afar(not talking about physical distance) such as you think of it as a powerhouse once is now seeping into my brain.DI and deccan are also fascinating angles.Two holiday's coming up will use my grey cells and post further.Thnxs for the opportunity for using them.Better than sitting and watching with a 'frog in the well' outlook.
However on first glance RajeshA Ji's idea to proceed without temporary destabilization of R.O.I is a bit of a stretch it seems.

[Airavat]

The principal error in the above discussion is clubbing Marathas with Sikhs. The Marathas are in a separate category by themselves; their power rose earlier and spread across a much wider arc of Indian provinces.

The Sikhs come in the category of other provincial powers who rose up due to oppression by Aurangzeb: Rathods, Jats, Bundelas. Each of these formed kingdoms that were a factor in the 18th and 19th century geopolitics of India.

[Manishw]

The principal error in the above discussion is clubbing Marathas with Sikhs. The Marathas are in a separate category by themselves; their power rose earlier and spread across a much wider arc of Indian provinces.

Agreed

The Sikhs come in the category of other provincial powers who rose up due to oppression by Aurangzeb: Rathods, Jats, Bundelas. Each of these formed kingdoms that were a factor in the 18th and 19th century geopolitics of India.

It would be better to use the term Punjabi(Hindu/Sikh) to get a better understanding of their empire and what they were up against, not in the 18th and 19th century, but for the last 1200 years to arrive at some better understanding.

[Airavat]

^^^
When the thread relates to the Future Strategic Scenario for the whole "Indian Subcontinent", we need to look at the complete geopolitical picture of India at different periods of history. Every province/region faced its own challenges at such different periods.

Besides, there is a Punjab History thread in GD.

[Manishw]

^^^
When the thread relates to the Future Strategic Scenario for the whole "Indian Subcontinent", we need to look at the complete geopolitical picture of India at different periods of history. Every province/region faced its own challenges at such different periods.

No need to repeat the obvious.I know.

Besides, there is a Punjab History thread in GD.

Yes you are again stating something I am aware of but in the post above yours, I was talking about the Sindhu valley and mulling it's implication's as you would know wrt previous posts and Punjab though not being the only one was an Integral part of it.Sikhism arose only later in the time frame I proposed. Hence using of term Punjabi(Hindu/Sikh).The reason I proposed 1200 Yrs. Vs your 18th and 19th century was because the Ganga valley and Sindhu valley experienced significant demographic changes during that time.

If you still have any doubt's kindly go through the last page and the post of Atri Ji with the great visual representation and RajeshA Ji's long post to get a better Idea of where I am coming from.

[Pratyush]

Pratyush, Dont be pursuing solutions before goals are decided. Take momone to understnad what he is saying. Do you agree with the goal or not? If not what is your plan? If you agree what are the barriers?

So answering question three before two will lead to disruption.

Ramana,

I wholeheartedly agree with the goal as espoused and presented by Rajesh, that is not the problem. The problem is that the goal requires a single minded determination of purpose from our end.

Essentially what Rajesh is recommending (my read) is we follow Divide and rule in TSP in order to reduce the Islamists to Insignificance. Looking at what is taking place in TSP today and over the past almost 30 years, this to an extent is already taking place. What he is suggesting is its escalation.

He is also recommending utilizing the more aggressive parts of Muslim doctrine in order to reduce the Muslim influence in TSP. By suggesting safe zones for Minorities in TSP and taking them under Indian protection through an Indian LAW. Its is similar to Muslims saying Islam in danger, except it is for the express purpose for the protection of minorities. Rather then extermination.

It can be done, but the problem that I foresee, is the Indian secularism as is practiced to day in the country. It will not permit any action by the GOI which supports the interests of any community or group over the interests of the Muslims. Anywhere in the world, let alone in TSP. If you catch my drift.

That is the problem I foresee. This can be over come in India if the goal is set by the GOI in the same manner as the Muslims do a Taqquia.But that would require the GOI to show ruthless cunning, that, has not been observed from it till date.

Just my take. To what has been proposed

Added later, Atri, in one of his above posts has perfectly captured what I have not said in this post. It is the biggest problem facing what Rajesh has proposed.

[Sanku]

That said, there is a great deal of incoherence in India when you bring up UPB participation in suppressing Indic revival. Our education system has only played up the perepherals treason only fully, while downplaying and not acknowledging their own deeds. Every school kid knows that Sikhs stabbed India in 1857; were it not for them we would be independent in 1857. But UPB-induced education system has obsufcated their own record, one which as as bad, if not worse.

Surinder-ji, this is the primary part I object too, of some how automatically assigning the "current" view of leftist historians etc to the Gangetic valley and the issues current in Indian polity as "born out of the Gangetic valley", some of the attributions you make about past history is also a result of similar distorted teachings that you complain of.

How do you know that it comes from that region? Just because JLN was born in Allahabad? Hey most of the Leftist historians and other intellectuals who shaped this world view that afflicts us come from the Extereme ends of the valley in Bengal and Cis-Sutlej (Leftist were very powerful there once)

In fact it is the other way around -- this is a device used to suppress the valley -- it is a device fashioned to keep the valley down.

Thinks about it in those terms for a change -- the narrative that Airavat has, can you find that in any of the books either?

Atri-ji, Airavat-ji -- I completely agree with your posts btw.

[Manishw]

My question is this, why for once can the region not put aside fratricidal tendencies (mainly caste based discrimination) and unite itself behind a national cause and help its less numerous civilizational cousins who are battling it out on the fringes?

80+ Lok Sabha seats???? For god's sake

The core can turn around India in 5 years if it deems so and there is no escaping the fact that it is refusing to do so in any measure. Period

Wars of the past are elections of today and core should quit the fence sitting now.

Completely agree Munna Ji

[RajeshA]

Atri ji,

<snip>

I think it is important that in our endeavors to reform our West, we do not disturb the internal peace in India, and that we also do not lose the pillars of our Constitution doing it.

I agree with your idea, Rajesh ji. But this is precisely where the anomaly manifests itself as both beginning and end as a circle.

In his book "In spite of all gods: strange rise of modern India" by a pathetic angrez Edward Luce, i have learnt something fascinating. This guy blames "evil hindutvavaadis" for all negatives of India, this shows where he stands.

However, there is one anecdote which this guy shares. He went to Darul ulum deoband and questioned them about things happening in Afpak and pak-proper and how does the seminary reconcile with the facts and behaviour? After deliberations, the Mullahs answered, that is Pathan and Punjabi culture and nothing to do with Islam. The mass, author and other mullahs agreed to this explanation.

Upon demonstrating "climax" of Islamism in TSP, Deoband and other seminaries of Ganga valley will shout "this is not true islam onlee". This will also create confusion in Dharmiks regarding contradictory behaviour of Indian Mullahs. hence, it needs to be parallel solution. It is impossible to bring Sindhu valley under Dharmik dominion without interference of fathers from Ganga valley. They won't allow Hindu to unify, nor will they allow GOI to become so overtly "dharmik". Sekoolarism will be preserved onlee, by tooth and nail.

Atri ji,

I do not ignore the fact that there are aspects of Islam harmful to the wellbeing of India, and within the great mass of the followers of Islam in India, some groups do carry these troublesome aspects.

What I am suggesting is that the way we go about dealing with Islamism in India has to be very different than how we go about solving Pakistan.

In a previous avatar of this Thread, an year ago I discussed this issue with harbans and brihaspati, and suggested a way forward on the issue of containing the troublesome aspects of Islam in India. Please do have a look at it.

In all the realism about the situation in India, we deny ourselves setting any goals and working out strategies of how to deal with the issue. If we think, we are right and our complaints are justified, why don't we show more confidence in the ability of Indians to deal with it in the right way without compromising on our values.

Summarizing what I suggested in that discussion, it involves constraining the political space available for the troubling aspects of Islam to exist in India, both by making our Constitution a lot more explicit about what the expectations of the society are on groups and individuals, as well as introducing a system which rewards those who comply and comes down heavily on those that do not, rewards the tolerant and punishes the intolerant, without compromising on the fundamentals of secularism, equality and justice to all.

[Manishw]

Atri-ji, Airavat-ji -- I completely agree with your posts btw.

Sanku Ji since you seem to be in complete agreement with Atri Ji and Airavat Ji, do you support usage of terms such as

While Sikhs were allowed to "masturbate" (I apologize for the usage of this term) about their by gone glory and Ganga-valley was raped with 10 million murders post 1857 (sadly, most of which were assisted by soldiers of Sindhu-valley as revenge of 1849), the point of deccan's resurgence was understated and hence ignored. This is still being ignored.

regarding Sikh's since the same could be said about the hindus regarding last 1200 yrs of course with due apologies?

I would again request member's to not use such term's and keep the spirit of healthy debate alive.

Sanku Ji Don't you think that you have played the role of an 'Argumentative Indian' enough even after I posted this
Quote
Friend's We are all here to see a strong ,prosperous and united India.This debate will do the opposite.Since everybody had their say it is best we close this thing here.We must remember that other people are reading this forum as Ramana Ji pointed out.Everybody would agree that both U.P and Bihar should grow at 15%+ as that would put an end to this problem.I am for one rooting for Nitish Kumar only for development's sake otherwise I have no voting right's there.
Please accept my apologies if I have offended anyone through this post.
Unquote

or is it something else which keep's on forcing you.

[Atri]

While Sikhs were allowed to "masturbate" (I apologize for the usage of this term) about their by gone glory and Ganga-valley was raped with 10 million murders post 1857 (sadly, most of which were assisted by soldiers of Sindhu-valley as revenge of 1849), the point of deccan's resurgence was understated and hence ignored. This is still being ignored.

regarding Sikh's since the same could be said about the hindus regarding last 1200 yrs of course with due apologies?

This was allusion towards the stupid "Martial race theory", manish ji, in case you have missed the point. Punjab and hence Sikhs were kept in lull for long time until rise of Lala Lajpat Rai by the means of this theory. It is after advent of Lalaji, that Punjab began to simmer in systematic way. The point was much bigger, please don't nitpick on one slang which was deliberately used. There is something terribly wrong with our country and her traditional powerhouses. The inaction of these powerhouses (due to vanity and fear/opportunism respectively Sindhu and Ganga) cannot salvage our desh.

The powers of Deccan can at like Parashurama, not like Vikramaditya. They are not designed to rule north. They can destroy a superstructure and a system and then hand over the land to some deserving "Kashyapa". They lack propensity and manpower to go and stay in Sindhu and Ganga valley for ever and become Vikramaditya. I am making factual statement, not a prophecy. This has been the behaviour of power from Krishna-Godavari valley so far on all occassions when they have entered Indo-Gangetic plains with intention of fighting a foreign power.

After Pratihara dynasty, Rajputs too formed similar confederacy like Marathas and like Yadavas of Mahabharat. They have to allign eventually with either Magadha OR Kuru. There should be someone deserving there. When there is no Kashyapa ready, that is when East India company takes all the credit for the hardwork done by Malwa, Rajputana and Deccan in weakening and defeating the strongest military and economic power on earth in contemporary times. Ranjit Singh was the Kashyapa for Sindhu Valley. But he did not conquer Ganga valley (for various reasons). And Ganga gave the "amrita-Kumbha" to demons like EIC. Rest is history.

Bliss not to get offended. Sometimes harsh words need to be used to convey the agony and point.

[Manishw]

^ Arre Atri Ji nothing to get offended for me.I have absolutely no bones in this friendly fight which these senior poster's here are indulging in.My only bone is revival of Indic civilization.Senior and respected member's like Sanku Ji should think that we are not the only ones reading this and the repercussion's of what he post's.All point's can be got across to each other without offending any section's of the Indic society.Kindly continue the debate.
Added Later: Speaking of M.B I guess it was Yudhisthir in a similar example. Pls correct me if I am wrong.
Junior poster's like me get a lot of leeway since nobody follow's us but the senior and respected ones like Sanku Ji have a heavier burden to carry.

[brihaspati]

The bane of India's attempts at projecting power and securing all that its long civiliizational accumulation achieved - is the growth or perception of factors that increase inter-regional distrust and the over emphasis on regional distinctions.

Every distinction and separate regional identity - however innocent and couched in "cultural aspects onlee" they are represented as, they create a sense of separation and distance from other identities which can be used by clever manipulators - internal or external.

If we look at the possible reasons behind such perceptions, it does appear to be rooted in ancient economics and associated demographics. Since agriculture was the predominant supporter of large population concentration the GV provided a "centre". Problem is that people do not always realize their own position in larger collective processes as parts and cogs of a large machine and think of themselves as the one and only driver of everything.

Agriculture alone cannot or could not propel a civilization endlessly in growth terms unless that agriculture was complemented with distribution, exchange and trade with stable exchange institutions. This meant that the entire arc leading from Saurashtra, IV opening into the Arabian Sea, through current Rajasthan, Punjab, and then onwards to UPB, and finally into the Bengal delta into the Bay of Bengal had to be integrated in one socio-economic framework. The arc had its side-roads leading through the NWFP and Kashmir into CAR, or the eastern Assam Valley outlets.

At various time-points therefore, it must have become profitable for regional choke-points to claim exclusive rights to the flow of manpower, labour, products and finance through this arc, and use such claims as bargaining options. If nothing even a nuisance value threatening flow could be profitable. The problem here is that each such regional claim then sought to eradicate or delegitimize the claims of others.

As the primary generator of the source wealth or basic products, the GV powers should have had the statesmanship to recognize and acknowledge and reward the roles of the endpoints and other outlets. This is something that is sadly missing out for most periods. We almost always see this tendency of thinking of Upper GV as the one and only centre to which all else must submit - ideologically, politically, and in every possible way. Somehow the end points or the outlets are never to be acknowledged as crucial, inseparable, complementary units with corresponding positions of power and decision making. For most periods, the upper GV powers tend to treat the "periphery" as subject colonies and expect such submission.

This leads to the those that are basically treated as "periphery" compared to the supposed "centre" in upper GV, to take opportunistic steps in alliance with invaders to reassert their own power or even survival. To counter such steps sooner or later even the upper-GV exclusivists also join up with invaders fearing that they would lose out in the race.

The upper GV source of Islamist revivalist doctrine has been noted here already. I would see this tendency as the same in the ancient tradition of claiming and aiming for exclusivist control of the arc that existed independent of Islam.

The periphery have been crucial in correcting deviations within the upper GV. They might have collaborated with the Brits early, but were the greatest thorns in the side of the Brits early too. It appears that the upper GV always lags behind the "periphery" when it comes to realizing and carrying out the radicalization programme necessary to fuel the periodic revival of Indian civilization after each retreat. Fear and the distrust of the periphery and a jealous eyeing of any developing "power" in the periphery leads to inaction at first during the attrition phase of the revival struggle. But an equal alacrity in using the fruits of the struggle to concentrate power back in upper GV once the peripheral radicals have been weakened by the struggle.

Not joining the fight when united front is required ultimately weakens the very power ambitions of the upper GV in the long run - for it loses the valuable forces of revival in the periphery by attrition in conflicts with the invader or repressor.

I hope that each "regional" power realizes this - including the upper GV. I hope that they realize it is crucial to mutually acknowledge each other's role and the absolute unavoidability of all components being acknowledged and rewarded for their role. That it is a collective enterprise where everyone has their share in making decisions, and that short term exclusive regional power goals may be disastrous long term not only for the collective but also for the region itself.

Seek to strengthen leadership that impartially identifies with all components and reject those who don't show such impartiality. Only that will consolidate a core that can hold together and conflate all the components for a single purpose.

[Manishw]

This was allusion towards the stupid "Martial race theory", manish ji, in case you have missed the point. Punjab and hence Sikhs were kept in lull for long time until rise of Lala Lajpat Rai by the means of this theory.

Atri Ji,
Something which crossed my mind.This theory is not only drilled into Sikhs but punjabi Hindus are also under it's influence.They are used to seeing themselves as martial, brave, martian's whatever etc.
This is because it was very necessary at one time to think like this to insure survival against hordes of barbarian's out to loot, rape, plunder etc. The sad part is this thing outlived its usefulness but old habit's die hard.

Just my 2 cents.
Added Later: I guess this mentality is prevalent in many part's of India.Two I know personally
1) Rajput's
2)Maratha's at least the one's in Pune.

In the case of Prithviraj Chauhan he forgave Ghauri and then lost.People wonder at his foolishness not realizing that he saw this way to be Dharmic etc.
Problem is we are facing an enemy though not great fighter's but experts in taqqiya.This mindless interpretation of Dharmic/dharmika has to be stopped and the real face of the enemy has to be revealed.

[Manishw]

This confusion is still seen in many discussions here as well. What to go for first - Sindhu OR Ganga? they are like evil twins and without cleaning both, India won't be liberated. People from both the valleys should understand this and try and cooperate with Deccan and the indic DI Axis which has been activated since past 300 years.

Atri Ji It is my considered opinion after much thought that sindhu valley, deccan, indic Di axis can to nothing without the support of the core.Speaking specifically of sindhu valley don't expect even a mew from them.
However if the core get's into action all these will be elevated to their pristine position's and we will have a tremendous outpouring of Indic resurgence.How is a different question and will attempt to try answering in different post.

[Sanku]

Manishw-ji, with Atri-ji having clarified what he meant, I suppose there is no further point you wish for me to clarify, is there?

Also, I would like to put on record that I do not suffer from a "regional" shell, and/or am not batting for any region of India. My upbringing has ensured that there is no part of India that is "not mine"

I have often challenged posters on this board who have claimed that they care more for XYZ part of India because they belong to that place/language -- all of India is mine and I am all of India's.

I merely take a stand when I feel that deliberately created (against us) false histories and false images are being perpetuated -- there are many who would want to play one section of India against other, it has been my quest try and correct what I can in this regard.

I believe Surinder-ji as he complains about certain mis-interpreted history against some, he fails to realize that the same issues may be playing against others too..

[Airavat]

In the case of Prithviraj Chauhan he forgave Ghauri and then lost.People wonder at his foolishness not realizing that he saw this way to be Dharmic etc.

Off topic but the above claim is a myth.

[Manishw]

^ Airavat Ji Thank's for your insight.

[Manishw]

Manishw-ji, with Atri-ji having clarified what he meant, I suppose there is no further point you wish for me to clarify, is there?

Sanku Ji Apologies for acting so irrationally.Guess you will accept my Humble apologies.I have huge respect for you since the past year as a lurker and now as a member.

[Sanku]

Manish-ji no apologies are needed Sir, and I appreciate your kind thoughts towards me.

[Manishw]

^ Thank's Sanku Ji

[brihaspati]

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/features/ ... m-srinagar
Meenakshi Ganguly's wisdom on unrest in the Valley

After 2003, the battle between Indian security forces and militant groups based in Pakistan began to quiet down. Under pressure from the United States, Pervez Musharraf, then Pakistan's president, attempted to prevent militants from crossing over the Line of Control, the de facto border between Pakistan and India in Kashmir. At the same time, negotiations between Islamabad and New Delhi produced some positive developments, including the creation of a bus service between Srinagar and Muzzaffarabad to reunite Kashmiri families who had been separated since the 1947 war.

Yet a final settlement remained out of reach. India was slow to respond to Musharraf's early overtures, and by the time it was ready to enter into negotiations, the authoritarian Musharraf had come under domestic pressure to leave office. Talks with the newly elected government of Asif Ali Zardari in Islamabad had barely begun when, in November 2008, Lashkar-e-Taiba, an Islamist militant group based in Pakistan, launched an attack on Mumbai, killing 166 people. (To this day, relations remain so prickly that Islamabad initially refused Indian relief aid after devastating floods in August.)

In late 2008, local elections were held in Indian-administered Kashmir. At the time, the separatist political groups were in disarray and lacked credibility; many people despised the separatists for having brought violence without any tangible gains. Voters elected a young politician, Omar Abdullah, who leads the mainstream National Conference Party founded by his grandfather, Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah, and supports greater autonomy -- but not accession to Pakistan -- for Jammu and Kashmir.

Today, the Abdullah government appears paralyzed; it has even failed to reach out to victims and families of the recent violence. With the recent crackdowns and killings, moderate separatist leaders who entered into dialogue with India feel let down. "The Indian government eroded the dialogue process, failing to deliver even on the most minimum confidence-building measures," said Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, a moderate religious and political leader. "People are angry because we have been harping on dialogue for so long without any results."

As many people in Kashmir have turned away from moderates, they have placed their faith in hard-liner Syed Ali Shah Geelani, an octogenarian separatist leader who previously fell out of popular favor because of his fundamentalist Islamic and pro-Pakistan views. Speaking of the new wave of protesters on the streets, Geelani told me, "They respect me because I represent their sentiment." But even his appeal for peaceful protests was viewed with anger by the young demonstrators. "They have been born in the gun culture," he said. "They are angry, but gradually, they will be managed."

That will be difficult. When the Abdullah government was elected and violence appeared to be waning, the Indian government could have used this window to end the pervasive culture of impunity and to prosecute those responsible for abuses.

But little changed. India's response to the current unrest has been as counterproductive as ever. With the police unable to contain the demonstrations, the Abdullah government requested additional paramilitary forces. Despite orders from above to exercise restraint, some Indian troops, frustrated and aggressive, have damaged private property and smashed windows. Police round up young Kashmiris, beating them up in police stations to force confessions. There are widespread allegations that police are arresting boys and demanding bribes to secure their release. Anyone out on the streets past curfew is at risk of abuse by security forces. On August 30, an 11-year-old boy was shot during a demonstration in the southern town of Anantnag; he was this summer's 65th fatality.

So the Valley Islamists and separatists are not to blame really for anything. Its always the failure of the Indian response. What about the favourite economic causes behind radicalism line? Why not a detailed analysis of the exploitation line?!!

[brihaspati]

For those doubtful of any heterogeneity in the supposed monolith of the Chinese establishment :
http://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/t ... 41930.html

Arrests Ahead of Tournament
2010-08-25

Police clear Beijing of dissidents ahead of a star-studded martial arts event.

HONG KONG—Police in China's capital have removed a victim of the Tiananmen Square military crackdown from the city ahead of a high-profile martial arts event associated with Hollywood martial arts star Jackie Chan. Qi Zhiyong, disabled due to injuries sustained when People's Liberation Army troops suppressed the student-led pro-democracy movement on the night of June 3-4, 1989, said he had been taken out of the city to an undisclosed location Tuesday by two regular police and two security guards.

"The police said that it was because of the SportAccord Combat Games," Qi said. "Also I sent an update on Twitter about [fellow dissident] Li Jinping who wanted to hold a demonstration." "They said they thought I supported the demonstration, and they were putting me under house arrest—for a whole bunch of reasons at the same time." "I'm in the police car now. They told me that I'd probably be set free at the beginning of September. They don't know the exact timing themselves," Qi said.


Campaigners targeted

Li Jinping has campaigned for years to have disgraced late former premier Zhao Ziyang rehabilitated. Zhao was toppled from power for not taking a hard line with the 1989 student movement, and died under house arrest at his Beijing home in 2005.

Li said he and Qi have worked together to clear Zhao's name. "The demonstration was to call for Zhao's rehabilitation, for a return to the [guarantees of China's] Constitution, and for returning political power to the people," Li said, after being held for several hours Tuesday at a Beijing police station. Qi said he had seen messages online from a number of dissidents and activists in recent days, saying they are also under surveillance or house arrest. He said they included activists Wang Xueqin, Hu Shigen, Gao Hongming, and Liu Shasha.

"What has the Combat Games got to do with me?" Qi said. "It's a boxing or martial arts exchange, I think. What does it have to do with people like us?" "[The police] said it is an international event with a lot of foreign visitors, and that it is the first time it will be held in Beijing, and that they had to take security measures for it."

Another Beijing-based activist, Wu Tianli, said surveillance is now being used to keep watch on people the authorities fear as potential troublemakers, regardless of the size of the event. "They are watching us now, whether it's a big event or a small one," Wu said. "Life is going to get tougher and tougher for us petitioners now." "Before, they might watch you twice a year; now they watch us four times a year, or five. They'll watch you for anything," she said.

[brihaspati]

http://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/s ... 44720.html

China Boosts Surveillance
2010-09-02

Authorities in China introduce new measures to crack down on dissent.
AFP
HONG KONG—Chinese netizens have reacted with shock and anger to online reports detailing a nationwide plan to step up surveillance of people the government considers a risk to social stability.

The increasing need for surveillance should be noted. Similar news and info comes to me otherwise too from expat Chinese. These makes me try to project a policy for Indians to view the Chinese setup as complex dynamic power struggle between various sections of the elite - currently donning communist shirts - as well as those in the up and coming urban middle class and intelligentsia.

All settled long term authoritarian regimes that originally came to power citing idealism usually almost always ende up dominated by ruthless opportunists. Their ultimate nemesis is that the very idealism of the movement that started out, because it is then used and seen as counterpoise by those disgruntled by the resulting regime.

Indian strategy should be more nuanced - exposing the PLA, CPC, and fighting them in all possible ways. But at the same time hold out the promise of support to genuine democratic and modernizing, liberal movements in China and better cooperation if such forces came to power in China. Never ever however painting the common Chinese citizen with the same brush as the PLA and the CPC. Highlight the pre-communist cultural aspects of China. That will also be a way of bashing up the Maoist or Communist tendency to paint pre-communist phases as the "dark" phase in uncannily Islamist style of "jahilya", but also win hearts in many common Chinese who are deeply nostalgic about their traditions.

[brihaspati]

http://www.spiegel.de/international/ger ... -2,00.html
'Peak Oil' and the German Government
Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis

By Stefan Schultz

Part 2: A Litany of Market Failures

According to the German report, there is "some probability that peak oil will occur around the year 2010 and that the impact on security is expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later." The Bundeswehr prediction is consistent with those of well-known scientists who assume global oil production has either already passed its peak or will do so this year.

Market Failures and International Chain Reactions

The political and economic impacts of peak oil on Germany have now been studied for the first time in depth. The crude oil expert Steffen Bukold has evaluated and summarized the findings of the Bundeswehr study. Here is an overview of the central points:

* Oil will determine power: The Bundeswehr Transformation Center writes that oil will become one decisive factor in determining the new landscape of international relations: "The relative importance of the oil-producing nations in the international system is growing. These nations are using the advantages resulting from this to expand the scope of their domestic and foreign policies and establish themselves as a new or resurgent regional, or in some cases even global leading powers."

* Increasing importance of oil exporters: For importers of oil more competition for resources will mean an increase in the number of nations competing for favor with oil-producing nations. For the latter this opens up a window of opportunity which can be used to implement political, economic or ideological aims. As this window of time will only be open for a limited period, "this could result in a more aggressive assertion of national interests on the part of the oil-producing nations."

* Politics in place of the market: The Bundeswehr Transformation Center expects that a supply crisis would roll back the liberalization of the energy market. "The proportion of oil traded on the global, freely accessible oil market will diminish as more oil is traded through bi-national contracts," the study states. In the long run, the study goes on, the global oil market, will only be able to follow the laws of the free market in a restricted way. "Bilateral, conditioned supply agreements and privileged partnerships, such as those seen prior to the oil crises of the 1970s, will once again come to the fore."

* Market failures: The authors paint a bleak picture of the consequences resulting from a shortage of petroleum. As the transportation of goods depends on crude oil, international trade could be subject to colossal tax hikes. "Shortages in the supply of vital goods could arise" as a result, for example in food supplies. Oil is used directly or indirectly in the production of 95 percent of all industrial goods. Price shocks could therefore be seen in almost any industry and throughout all stages of the industrial supply chain. "In the medium term the global economic system and every market-oriented national economy would collapse."

* Relapse into planned economy: Since virtually all economic sectors rely heavily on oil, peak oil could lead to a "partial or complete failure of markets," says the study. "A conceivable alternative would be government rationing and the allocation of important goods or the setting of production schedules and other short-term coercive measures to replace market-based mechanisms in times of crisis."

* Global chain reaction: "A restructuring of oil supplies will not be equally possible in all regions before the onset of peak oil," says the study. "It is likely that a large number of states will not be in a position to make the necessary investments in time," or with "sufficient magnitude." If there were economic crashes in some regions of the world, Germany could be affected. Germany would not escape the crises of other countries, because it's so tightly integrated into the global economy.

* Crisis of political legitimacy: The Bundeswehr study also raises fears for the survival of democracy itself. Parts of the population could perceive the upheaval triggered by peak oil "as a general systemic crisis." This would create "room for ideological and extremist alternatives to existing forms of government." Fragmentation of the affected population is likely and could "in extreme cases lead to open conflict."

The scenarios outlined by the Bundeswehr Transformation Center are drastic. Even more explosive politically are recommendations to the government that the energy experts have put forward based on these scenarios. They argue that "states dependent on oil imports" will be forced to "show more pragmatism toward oil-producing states in their foreign policy." Political priorities will have to be somewhat subordinated, they claim, to the overriding concern of securing energy supplies.

For example: Germany would have to be more flexible in relation toward Russia's foreign policy objectives. It would also have to show more restraint in its foreign policy toward Israel, to avoid alienating Arab oil-producing nations. Unconditional support for Israel and its right to exist is currently a cornerstone of German foreign policy.

I am posing the counter-question : instead of peak-oil fears driving political expediency - was the leak timed to justify political expediency to raise fears of peak-oil?

What should the tactic imply for Indian and Chinese behaviour around the subcontinent?

[Manishw]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 508868.cms


After his meetings with the Chinese leadership, including with President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, Singh said he was of the feeling that Beijing wanted to sort out the outstanding issues with India. "However, this leadership will change in two years. There is a new assertiveness among the Chinese. It is difficult to tell which way it will go. So, it's important to be prepared."

---------------------------------------
Strange going-Ons.