US and PRC relationship & India

[abhishek_sharma]

India's aim should be nuclearization of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam.

The Japanese have started a new drama w.r.t. civilian nuclear cooperation. See SSridhar's post in the Japan thread.

[abhishek_sharma]

Bharat Karnad (in his book) recommended that India should give Vietnam nuclear weapons through cooperation in "peaceful" uses of nuclear energy. I guess they are the most anti-China country in the region.

South Koreans don't really like Japanese...

[Venkarl]

Rajeshji..nuclearization of Soko and Japan (Taiwan is out of question) is a very complex process for India to pursue alone with both SoKo and Japan being under US umbrella.

I think what India currently is doing about boosting defense ties with SoKo is perfectly accurate and a timely step and might be a part of GoI's larger agenda. Similar ties with Japan in July this year also falls in the interest of same agenda. We should continue to elevate and test our defense partnerships with SoKo and Japan and see how they actually cooperate with us. After a positive evaluation{which means SoKo and Japan are independent of US pressures when it comes to siding with India against China on defense aspects} we can propose a defense treaty with heavy defense and military cooperations and Australia would be welcome as an observer. Of course all this will need blessings from US. But to realize this goal it will take good decade long time.

This leaves Vietnam which is independent of both US and Chinese pressures which actually makes far easy for us to immediately instantiate the economic and technology cooperations on fast pace with proper reciprocation. Military ties should be enhanced where we can start off with military sales initially and pick up pace to building shipping and revamping their military bases, airfields etc. If this policy of engaging Vietnam is pursued seriously by New Delhi...then before a decade's time we'll have a natural ally right under the belly of China and by this time our military cooperation treaties with SoKo and Japan should mature considering the economic power we've become by 2020.

Engaging Taiwan is a far fetched card up in our sleeves. GoI may use Taiwan card in "real aggression" by Chinese. Now I don't know what GoI's definition of "real Aggression" is.

However, your suggestion of nuclearization of SoKo and Japan, strategically speaking, it can be applied to USA to initiate and clear nuclear programs for military purposes in Soko and Japan if China overtly weaves into US's sphere of influence. SoKo actually has a de facto reason to go nuclear because of NoKo{I don't know whats stopping SoKoians..may be unkil}.

The main goal of having such military alliances should not be to wage a war but to neutralize hostile intentions of the aggressor.

[RajeshA]

India's aim should be nuclearization of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam.

The Japanese have started a new drama w.r.t. civilian nuclear cooperation. See SSridhar's post in the Japan thread.

As SSridhar garu, mentioned in that post, this is only show for the gallery. The Japanese are more than aware about India's stand and India's security compulsions.

[RamaT]

China, then, has three possible future paths. In the first, it continues to grow at astronomical rates indefinitely. No country has ever done that, and China is not likely to be an exception. The extraordinary growth of the past thirty years has created huge imbalances and inefficiencies in China’s economy that will have to be corrected. At some point China will have to go through the kind of wrenching readjustment that the rest of Asia already has undergone.

A second possible path is the recentralization of China, where the conflicting interests that will emerge and compete following an economic slowdown are controlled by a strong central government that imposes order and restricts the regions’ room to maneuver. That scenario is more probable than the first, but the fact that the apparatus of the central government is filled with people whose own interests oppose centralization would make this difficult to pull off. The government can’t necessarily rely on its own people to enforce the rules. Nationalism is the only tool they have to hold things together.

A third possibility is that under the stress of an economic downturn, China fragments along traditional regional lines, while the central government weakens and becomes less powerful. Traditionally, this is a more plausible scenario in China—and one that will benefit the wealthier classes as well as foreign investors. It will leave China in the position it was in prior to Mao, with regional competition and perhaps even conflict and a central government struggling to maintain control. If we accept the fact that China’s economy will have to undergo a readjustment at some point, and that this will generate serious tension, as it would in any country, then this third outcome fits most closely with reality and with Chinese history.

Agree on the overarching point, China's economy will go through periods of retrenchment.. it's happened before('98-'99 Asian Flu, last year) and they have managed to control it by massive stimulus' but there's another path.. one very troubling that their leadership is likely to pursue. The issue is not China itself, it is the beast within it, the CPC which is calling the shots. And their priorities are the success of the CPC and the success of China, in that order.

So, in case a large enough economic shock hits the country they will do what is best for the CPC first.. which is retaining control of the country and population by any means possible. Nationalism is the easiest lever for them to pull, and the best way to do that is to present an external threat to focus the people on.. whether this is India/SK/Japan remains to be seen. They've been moving strategically against India for several decades now but India has a strategic N. deterrent which might cause them to pause, although they could gamble(and probably rightly) that as long as they didn't go N. India wouldn't either. So a glorious battle for them to re-claim Arunachal or to 'defend' an 'all weather' friend in Paki's could be sold, a few thousand or million dead while the party is kept in power is a small price for them. This is why India needs to step up Agni program to a faster speed and highly publicize dozens of missiles pointed at Beijing so they get a VERY CLEAR MESSAGE. Unfortunately this won't happen for a few years at the current pace(2015, I believe) so the very real possibility of Chinese attack exists between now and then.

India needs to get aggressive, and not just diplomatically. Diplomacy is 1 leg in the triumvirate, combined with intelligence and economic maneuvering that has to happen so that strategic military aims can be met.

Towards this end India needs to keep the target the CPC and not the Chinese state as a whole, like Arjuna keep the focus on the eye and let the arrow(s) fly. I was heartened today to see MS finally speak the plain truth.. however couched, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 508868.cms He is a great economic mind and PM but he's not the most strategically and militarily minded with regards to countering moves forcefully. That is what China respects, nothing else.. see the following, after getting smacked by the US a bit at ASEAN and shown the reality with a N. submarine they are all conciliatory again, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/08/world ... .html?_r=1. Remember they are like a snake, following Sun-Tzu, they will be silent and sneaky until they feel they are in position for a deadly blow.

So, what pain points can India develop to hamstring the CPC and speed its demise, or at the least shift the focus from our shores.

Some ideas:

1. As mentioned, speed Agni V development and let slip a few dozen are pointed at Beijing. MAD will be established they will have no real option but to come to the table or continue sub-N. tit-for-tat indefinitely.

2. Encourage closer defence partnerships with major ASEAN players, Japan, SoKo, Australia, Vietnam. Get into partnerships with each where greater advanced technology from them can be shared with India and we can provide manpower/common entry to global markets. See BrahMos program for blueprint.. Also, Pak-Fa/FGFA can be used as enticement and Tejas can be provided short term. This can help build our supply lines faster as well, as infrastructure would have a larger number of units to be amortized around.

3. Incite and magnify disagreements between Japan/SoKo and China using 'covert assets'.

4. Encourage and support separatist/personal freedom movements within China using 'covert assets'.

5. Highlight corruption and failures of CPC by feeding Indian/Global media with choice stories, especially those that reflect poorly in the west and in areas of increasing Chinese influence such as Africa/Latin America.

6. Tibet.. be smart about plausible deniability. The Chinese have done enough hiding behind there's that it must be done.

7. Food security is a huge issue for them.. add a duty on foodstuffs shipped to China.

8. Same as #7 for other raw materials.

9. Establish full relations with Taiwan(this is just an annoyance.. long-term the Taiwanese themselves are China oriented, but it's worth it just to give the CPC some heartburn.

Some of the more adventurously minded steps.. to show we have some teeth, these have risks associated with them but they establish push back from our side and show we are not to be pushed around.

A. Encourage the monarchy of Nepal to accede to India, or failing that.. should a civil war present itself due to political gridlock.. send 100K peacekeepers there and ensure a India friendly government is in place. China is baldly and badly playing a dangerous game here and must be countered forcefully.

B. At next terrorist incitement from Pakis, take Giligit-Baltistan/Northern Areas from Pak. Ensure that it has no common border remaining between them.

C. Enter into a 'nuclear support' agreement with SoKo/Vietnam where India would be obligated to respond should they be attacked by a nuclear weapon as long as they remain non-nuclear. As an aside, no.. 'giving' N. weapons to any country is not an option.. if done then it will cause huge problems internationally vis-a-vis US, EU, etc. Would not be a smart move.


I'm sure there are others with better ideas.. perhaps there should be a 'countering China' thread as this one has gotten sidetracked. It would be a good place to hash out the nuances of each strategy and the best way to approach them?

[RajeshA]

Checkmating China: Nuclearization of East-Asia

Venkarl ji,
I agree with you on your assessment of the timespan required to create the military alliance.

Below is what Joint Operating Environment 2010 Report (pdf), a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command released on Feb. 18, 2010 had to say about preparedness of Japan and Korea to go nuclear.

Several friends or Allies of the United States, such as Japan and South Korea are highly advanced technological states and could quickly build nuclear devices if they chose to do so.

The Joint Operating Environment 2008 Reports (pdf) states

Furthermore, there are three threshold nuclear states, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan, which have the capacity to become nuclear powers quickly.

Some commentary on the above report: S. Korea, Japan Can Build Nuclear Weapons Quickly by Jung Sung-ki: Korea Times

The latest assessment of South Korea's nuclear capability comes as Seoul and Washington are negotiating an extension of a 1974 agreement that bans South Korea from reprocessing spent nuclear fuel without consent from the United States.

The agreement expires in 2014. South Korea wants to regain the rights to reprocess spent fuel rods by its own will. The country, which won a $20 billion contract in December to build four nuclear reactors in the United Arab Emirates, has long complained that the restrictions on the reprocessing work has blocked its aspirations.

South Korea is recognized globally as a pioneer in the study of the "pyprocessing" method aimed at reprocessing spent fuel without extracting weapons-grade plutonium from it.

The U.S. government fears South Korea's reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel might undermine global nonproliferation efforts, and provoke the North, and then Japan, making the security situation in Northeast Asia more volatile.

So yes USA is keeping Japan and South Korea down. That was USA's strategy to be the top dog and have everybody dependent on their nuclear umbrella. However the speed with which USA is being forced from its world dominating position, USA too may have to rethink its alliances strategy, that an alliance is strong if the members are strong. At least that should be the working principle for India and our search for an alliance.

India needs to provide confidence to Japan and South Korea to try to stand up on their own two military feet, and keep USA as ally but show the ally the middle finger when the ally tries to keep you down. North Korea provides both Japan and South Korea the perfect foil to also go nuclear. In fact, some public acrimony between South Korea and USA would go a long way in refurbishing South Korea's image in the eyes of North Korea, as an independent minded nation, which is positive for the sake of reunification.

At the moment Taiwan has again tilted towards China, but Taiwan is by no means a lost cause. But Taiwan certainly needs world recognition to feel that it is not losing out on the game against PRC. Having Taiwan in the Asian Security Alliance is essential for many reasons. First of all, nobody wants to give the impression to the Chinese people, that the alliance has anything against the Chinese people. The Chinese people are not the enemy - only CPC and PLA are considered dangerous and overbearing, and they need to be contained.

Secondly keeping Taiwan out of China is necessary because China's game-plan is to reconquer all Chinese territories and then proceed to establish Chinese supremacy over Asia. So that game-plan needs to be intercepted in Taiwan.

Also for military and strategic reasons alone it is imperative that Taiwan remains a separate entity.

India should establish full diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and take some convoluted stand, that India supports One-China policy, but recognizes the de-facto situation of having two regimes which speak for China, and until the situation is not clarified between the two regimes, India has decided to recognizes legitimacy of both regimes but only over the areas over which they enjoy suzerainty. Something like that. In fact, the next Chinese provocation in J&K should lead straight to such a recognition - a recognition of reality. India should find a way forward, a formulation for Taiwan and its recognition by other countries as well.

A Taiwan armed to the teeth with missiles and nuclear weapons is the best guarantee of keeping PRC contained in its ambitions.

In all this, something of note is that the Chinese alliance of China, Pakistan, North Korea and Myanmar is made up one strong and the other very weak countries, whereas India should build a security alliance of strong, prosperous and independent partners.

In fact the Chinese Alliance is quite fickle. Pakistan can break up, with several constituents changing sides. Myanmar junta is under siege from the Buddhist clergy and democratic forces. North Korea is an economic basket case. All three could change sides.

China has many weak points, and they need to be exploited.

[Arihant]

So India could start pushing the boundaries gently, for instance by announcing (perhaps with more fanfare than the news deserves) several new offices of TECO (the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office - their "unofficial" diplomatic reps in India - these guys get almost all privileges accorded to diplomats, but don't get to call themselves that).

To repay the J&K visa stapling issue in kind we could do the following: Our overseas posts require that visa applicants of Chinese birth pay an additional fee and go through extra processing and the Taiwanese are automatically treated as being under the ambit of that rule. We could still put applicants of Taiwanese birth through the extra processing, but perhaps mention Taiwan explicitly on the form and/or waive the extra fee (a small amount) for Taiwanese, or even create a new form for them to fill.

These are just the first couple of steps on the ladder. This might be a gross generalization/over-simplification, but the fact that they are friendless and lack international support (bar the US, whose support has appeared increasingly fickle in the recent past) looms large in the Taiwanese consciousness. We can redress that in many little ways.

Economic links are another interesting proposition. The earlier generation of Taiwanese had piles of hard-earned cash (for a long-time almost upto the late 90s, Taiwan had, from memory, the world's 3rd largest forex reserves, behind the US and Japan) which they needed to invest. Given the limitations in their language abilities (no English - only Mandarin Chinese) and cultural flexibility, China was the only place they could invest. The newer generation is more English-savvy and cosmopolitan, and could be easily inspired to invest in India.

Great Post Arihant if may say so.Let me share a few experiences along similar lines.It was in the year '05' that I and a colleague of mine had to visit Taiwan twice wrt official works when both of us used to work in U.S.Since then my only connection has been through the media in 'Taiwan'.
My friend trying to be polite and Ignorant of matter's geopolitical complimented our Hosts with a few word's on the greatness of Chinese huge economic Growth and boy we spent half an hour getting lectures and me trying to make them understand that my friend was Ignorant of matter's.
I have yet to meet a people who are more insecure with PRC(of course there might be others but talking only of the one's I have interacted with).Since then I have followed it in the media and it seems that the insecurity has only grown not only wrt PRC but with U.S also.I Inquired as to where do they see India in this picture and sadly they said that India is the only one capable of helping them in Asia but were having very low expectation's and did not register very much on their radars.This also now seems to be changing.
As to how we should go about I will follow up in later post's.

Manishw: Thanks. I think we've both observed Taiwan up close - the challenge now is to educate our establishment on the strategic value proposition that Taiwan is...

I agree that India didn't figure much on their radar earlier, but our soft power has made steady inroads, and most Taiwanese have a better appreciation of India.

Looking forward to your thoughts on the last point.

[Arihant]

Manishw: Thanks. There's a range of options on what we could do with Taiwan (and many on this thread have made suggestions in this space). The question "What can India offer Taiwan?" keps cropping up. I think the simplest answer is greater international recognition. This is something that the Taiwanese crave. If you look at the Taiwanese media, an international basketball or lacrosse association giving Taiwan full membership is huge news. When the Boy Scouts association says Taiwan can't be a member, that is treated with great dismay (these are rhetorical examples - I can't remember if it was the Scouts or the basketball association - but you get the idea). For a while, it looked like getting Taiwan observer status in the World Health Assembly would be President Ma's crowning foreign policy achievement. Taiwan has diplomatic relations with only about 25 minor countries in Central/South America and Africa and the only reason these countries maintain diplmatic ties with Taiwan is the huge amount of money that Taiwan provides in aid to them. Every once in a while, that list gets smaller as China weans over another country with promises of even greater aid.

So India could start pushing the boundaries gently, for instance by announcing (perhaps with more fanfare than the news deserves) several new offices of TECO (the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office - their "unofficial" diplomatic reps in India - these guys get almost all privileges accorded to diplomats, but don't get to call themselves that).

To repay the J&K visa stapling issue in kind we could do the following: Our overseas posts require that visa applicants of Chinese birth pay an additional fee and go through extra processing and the Taiwanese are automatically treated as being under the ambit of that rule. We could still put applicants of Taiwanese birth through the extra processing, but perhaps mention Taiwan explicitly on the form and/or waive the extra fee (a small amount) for Taiwanese, or even create a new form for them to fill.

These are just the first couple of steps on the ladder. This might be a gross generalization/over-simplification, but the fact that they are friendless and lack international support (bar the US, whose support has appeared increasingly fickle in the recent past) looms large in the Taiwanese consciousness. We can redress that in many little ways.

Economic links are another interesting proposition. The earlier generation of Taiwanese had piles of hard-earned cash (for a long-time almost upto the late 90s, Taiwan had, from memory, the world's 3rd largest forex reserves, behind the US and Japan) which they needed to invest. Given the limitations in their language abilities (no English - only Mandarin Chinese) and cultural flexibility, China was the only place they could invest. The newer generation is more English-savvy and cosmopolitan, and could be easily inspired to invest in India.

Nice post, but still the question remains unanswered what can Taiwan offer us? Also don't forget the whole world, including India, sees Taiwan as a part of China. The official position of India is of one-china policy.
And are we going to engage taiwan just to rile China? IMHO we should be building relationships which help us. With Taiwan there is no fundamental or basic way in which taiwan can help us.

Christopher Sidor: Thanks. I think Taiwan's value proposition to India is 3-fold: (1)Leverage for negotiation (we notch up our relations with Taiwan by a couple of notches - still short of full recognition, and thus consistent with the one-china policy - then offer to relent in negotiations with the Chinese by taking it down by a notch. Just the sort of thing the Chinese would do. (2) Business links: The Taiwanese still have very deep pockets, and great entrepreneurial energy, that we could benefit from. (3) Military links (in the long-term): At some point in the future, it is not inconceivable that Taiwan might offer us bases in our own version of the "string of pearls".

[RajeshA]

Checkmating China: Nuclearization of East-Asia

An article on South Korea's militarization program. It is from the aftermath of North Korea's second nuclear weapon test.
Military Bolsters Defense Readiness by Jung Sung-ki: Korea Times

sources say, adding that the development of nuclear-powered attack submarines is expected to be considered as an option to counter the North's nuclear threat.

Now South Korea is known for its ship-building. India has a 'prototype' nuclear powered submarine - the INS Arihant. Is that an opportunity for cooperation!

[Arihant]

Rajeshji..nuclearization of Soko and Japan (Taiwan is out of question) is a very complex process for India to pursue alone with both SoKo and Japan being under US umbrella.

Interesting point to note: Taiwan had a pretty active nuclear weapons program (see: http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/taiwan/nuke/index.html ). The US forced them to shut it down, and literally stood around to supervise the sealing of their reactors. Heard this from someone relatively senior in their military (but also see Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_o ... estruction

Engaging Taiwan is a far fetched card up in our sleeves. GoI may use Taiwan card in "real aggression" by Chinese. Now I don't know what GoI's definition of "real Aggression" is.

I've been arguing in the last few posts that perhaps the proposition is not that far-fetched.

[Arihant]

9. Establish full relations with Taiwan(this is just an annoyance.. long-term the Taiwanese themselves are China oriented, but it's worth it just to give the CPC some heartburn.

I wouldn't describe the Taiwanese as China-oriented. If you do the demographic maths for Taiwan, only about 70% of its population is of pure Han extraction (the remainder are predominantly Aboriginal, or mixed Aboriginal extraction - I wrote a post a long while back explaining why). Even for those of pure Han ancestry, they're about as Chinese as the Americans are British, or the Mexicans Spanish, or the Afrikaaners Dutch. Culturally, they are an interesting mixture of Japanese, Chinese and Aboriginal influences.

[Manishw]

^ Just wanted to add that hypothetically speaking there will be a time when the PRC cracks(not china) and India gets its advantage-Tibet with the implicit consent of Taiwanese elite.

[RajeshA]

C. Enter into a 'nuclear support' agreement with SoKo/Vietnam where India would be obligated to respond should they be attacked by a nuclear weapon as long as they remain non-nuclear. As an aside, no.. 'giving' N. weapons to any country is not an option.. if done then it will cause huge problems internationally vis-a-vis US, EU, etc. Would not be a smart move.

One need not give directly. Basically Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are all in a position to build nuclear weapons. They have the technology more or less. The only country which should have nuclear weapons, but does not, is Vietnam. That is the only country India actually needs to provide the necessary technology too.

India is already out of the nuclear dog-house. We can have civilian nuclear cooperation with Vietnam. Ultimately Vietnam is also the only country, which could do some nuclear testing for India.

As far as protests from US and EU are concerned, they can all go take a hike. Their influence has downgraded a bit.

I'm sure there are others with better ideas.. perhaps there should be a 'countering China' thread as this one has gotten sidetracked. It would be a good place to hash out the nuances of each strategy and the best way to approach them?

Something like:"Managing China's Rise"
I think this thread is okay for discussions on countering China.

[krisna]

WRT to china, the only places where china can invade or get invaded are through vietnam and korean borders though korean border is hilly. The borders of burma/laos are full of jungles and hilly terrains. India is of course through Himalayas via illegally occupied Tibet.

China has lost millions in its land wars in Korean peninsula and Vietnam.
I would not advocate any military intervention. Banish the thought.

IMHO new clear help to east asia is not a wise move. It will create a pandora’s box.
Though countries surrounding china are asking for crossing the new clear threshold uncle will resist it as long as it can. It does not want more new clear powers. Its dominance as superpower will be questioned. There will be no weak powers because having new clear capability will prevent uncle behaving as world policeman. Every country will behave as a rascal. Not only china will be checkmated due to proximity of new clear weapons but uncle and other countries like India also. Remember all the countries in East Asia are not inherently stable. Even korea went through some political/military crisis in the past.

India will be under enormous pressure if it does something like china did to Pakistan. India also would not do it. Short of behaving like china, the possibility exists for defence cooperation- ex- brahmos/tejas/agni/naval etc etc. along with economic one.

The faultlines are mainly economic for china—this has to be exploited fully over the years—have a close economic and defence cooperation with east asia. Things will gather speed on its own, just step on the gas according to the situation.

China can be perpetually kept under check in its backyard just like it is trying to do to India. It is much easier for us than china because the countries surrounding china are much stabler in many ways compared to our neighbourhood and wealthier also. They also have some insecurity regarding china.In our backyard pakistan is the only nutcase, rest are ok.

No one can remove uncle from the east asia even if the countries ask for it. It will stay in the pacific ocean surrounding china. We have to work with uncle, still retain enough independence to do what we think is right for our geopolitical interests. At times we will be in sync with uncle sometimes against it. So be it.

Regarding Taiwan, we can have economic co operation and recognize it. China will make a big issue out of it. There is a big risk that it will immediately recognize POK as legitimate and make sure it stays with its whore. Even without this it is already doing it covertly.
My feeling is India may not rake up the issue at present. Likely it will raise Tibet earlier more than Taiwan. It will be one more ace on our side if we have the guts to really do it.
Right now it already has enough to go about diplomatically around china.
We should also make Mongolia a friend and develop economic co operation. China will make sure it stays in its orbit but we can raise the stakes.


In a nutshell, India should intensify the economic and defence co operation around all countries surrounding china. No exceptions. India can raise issues like chinese new clear proliferation/POK and Tibet/taiwan in that order as the case may be. Doing tit for tat is important at least to keep the issue alive.
India can make some poorer countries like burma/laos/Cambodia/Vietnam take some of the work of Chinese as manufacturing base. Uncle will like it as they don’t have to depend on china.
Regarding New clear issue India should stay clear of it as uncle is the 800 pound gorilla and is not a wise move for now. Leave it to the countries to fight it out with uncle. India can be on stand by mode.

[RamaT]

One need not give directly. Basically Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are all in a position to build nuclear weapons. They have the technology more or less. The only country which should have nuclear weapons, but does not, is Vietnam. That is the only country India actually needs to provide the necessary technology too.

India is already out of the nuclear dog-house. We can have civilian nuclear cooperation with Vietnam. Ultimately Vietnam is also the only country, which could do some nuclear testing for India.

As far as protests from US and EU are concerned, they can all go take a hike. Their influence has downgraded a bit.

This is not a smart idea.. already we have seen in the past 10 years what happens when advanced technologies are not available, we would re-visit the same. Also, agreements are worth the paper they are written on.. and if we piss of US in this after they carved space for us then they will use one of the many provisions against non-proliferation in the agreement to toss us out, guaranteed.

Defence pacts are better long-run anyway.. notice how Nato members are always attentive to US concerns? Imagine if a must-defend pact was signed with Japan with regards to Nuclear attack.. there would be huge inflows of Japanese money and technology. Also, one of the things the Japanese will need over the next 20 years is workers.. where do we want them to go.. Us or PRC?

I'm sure there are others with better ideas.. perhaps there should be a 'countering China' thread as this one has gotten sidetracked. It would be a good place to hash out the nuances of each strategy and the best way to approach them?

Something like:"Managing China's Rise"
I think this thread is okay for discussions on countering China.

I looked, your post sounded like there was such a thread already created.. didn't see it in first two pages. We can keep it here but then we should probably rename it as the last 2 pages have had very little to do with the US & PRC relationship. 'Managing China's Rise' works for me.. will you create it? Thanks.

[RajeshA]

Checkmating China: Nuclearization of East-Asia

WRT to china, the only places where china can invade or get invaded are through vietnam and korean borders though korean border is hilly. The borders of burma/laos are full of jungles and hilly terrains. India is of course through Himalayas via illegally occupied Tibet.

China has lost millions in its land wars in Korean peninsula and Vietnam.
I would not advocate any military intervention. Banish the thought.

krisna ji,
I don't think, anybody is really subscribing to entering into a land war with China.

The goals on the table are:

1. Not to let China roughshod over the interests of the major countries in the neighborhood.
2. Should PRC become weak in the future, to reclaim its areas or make them independent, areas like Tibet, East Turkestan, parts of Manchuria, all without too much bloodshed.

IMHO new clear help to east asia is not a wise move. It will create a pandora’s box.
Though countries surrounding china are asking for crossing the new clear threshold uncle will resist it as long as it can. It does not want more new clear powers. Its dominance as superpower will be questioned. There will be no weak powers because having new clear capability will prevent uncle behaving as world policeman. Every country will behave as a rascal. Not only china will be checkmated due to proximity of new clear weapons but uncle and other countries like India also. Remember all the countries in East Asia are not inherently stable. Even korea went through some political/military crisis in the past.

India will be under enormous pressure if it does something like china did to Pakistan. India also would not do it. Short of behaving like china, the possibility exists for defence cooperation- ex- brahmos/tejas/agni/naval etc etc. along with economic one.

I do not think that countries in East Asia, namely Japan, South Korea, or even Taiwan are overly instable.

US power is dependent on its unquestioned primacy and its aggressiveness when challenged. China's military and political build up is going to be a big challenge for USA - how to not look weak. The moment USA starts looking weak, its hold over its allies too would evaporate. So it really depends on PRC, when USA is forced to blink. The day the allies like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan think that USA can't or won't stand up to PRC, American domination is gone.

This is bound to happen sooner or later.

When that happens, Japan and South Korea could go nuclear the next time China seems threatening. USA objections would remain only in the media.

Except of a certain tension between Japan and South Korea, there is a clear sympathy towards other countries in the aforementioned security alliance. The thing is, except for Indonesia, most other countries' core interests lie in East Asia, and in East Asia, China is the 800 pound gorilla and will stay threatening to these other countries for a long time to come. With China as the primary challenge, most other countries' attention would stay fixed on China. Their nuclear arsenals are not threatening to India. India is not going to be venturing into East Asia, claiming any form of dominance there.

Of course the nukes with these countries threaten US primacy in East Asia, but with changing security equilibrium in East Asia, there is not much what US can do about it.

No one can remove uncle from the east asia even if the countries ask for it. It will stay in the pacific ocean surrounding china. We have to work with uncle, still retain enough independence to do what we think is right for our geopolitical interests. At times we will be in sync with uncle sometimes against it. So be it.

Yes we have to work with USA, but it also needs to taken down a peg or two, not necessarily by us. USA is hampering the independent thinking of other countries of their own strategic interests.

[RajeshA]

Checkmating China: Nuclearization of East-Asia

One need not give directly. Basically Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are all in a position to build nuclear weapons. They have the technology more or less. The only country which should have nuclear weapons, but does not, is Vietnam. That is the only country India actually needs to provide the necessary technology too.

India is already out of the nuclear dog-house. We can have civilian nuclear cooperation with Vietnam. Ultimately Vietnam is also the only country, which could do some nuclear testing for India.

As far as protests from US and EU are concerned, they can all go take a hike. Their influence has downgraded a bit.

This is not a smart idea.. already we have seen in the past 10 years what happens when advanced technologies are not available, we would re-visit the same. Also, agreements are worth the paper they are written on.. and if we piss of US in this after they carved space for us then they will use one of the many provisions against non-proliferation in the agreement to toss us out, guaranteed.

I think we are looking here too much from a prism of today. 10-15 years down the line, the situation would be immensely different. Nobody will be able to push India around so easily then.

Defence pacts are better long-run anyway.. notice how Nato members are always attentive to US concerns? Imagine if a must-defend pact was signed with Japan with regards to Nuclear attack.. there would be huge inflows of Japanese money and technology. Also, one of the things the Japanese will need over the next 20 years is workers.. where do we want them to go.. Us or PRC?

Let's be honest about it. If Tokyo is turned to rubble by NoKo or by the Puppeteer-in-Chief China, would India be willing to kill millions of Chinese and to expect a nuclear retaliation in one of our large cities. I don't think we would. And if we feel this inhibition, China will smell that too. So this strategy would not work.

However if China attacks any country conventionally, then India could get involved conventionally. The inhibition threshold to that is much less. The alliance should give each one a multiplier effect at the military and strategic level. China is threatening each country of this alliance with some nuclear proxy - Pakistan and NoKo. Why can't this alliance have multiple nuclear weapons power centers as well?

Nuclear Umbrellas work when the alliance partners are too strongly connected, e.g. France a few years back offered Germany its nuclear umbrella, and it provoked some amusement in Berlin and elsewhere. But that amusement was simply because Germany was not under any siege. However the principle was sound. France's and Germany's security is intertwined. They are close neighbors. India and the other countries in East Asia have less sentimental and real connections. These can be built over the next decades, but at the moment these are not there. India could offer nuclear umbrella to Bhutan, Sri Lanka or other countries on our periphery.

In another case, America or Soviet Union could spread their nuclear umbrellas over their alliance partners because they were superpowers in comparison to their alliance partners, and both were an equal match. Superpowers can take such responsibilities. China is a larger adversary than India and the reason why this military alliance makes sense is because through an alliance, together we would be strong enough to contain China. Alone each country has its insecurities about China, but there is an awareness that there is strength in numbers. India's offer of a nuclear umbrella will be neither earnest nor convincing - neither for our future alliance partners nor for our adversaries.

Even in NATO there were three nuclear powers, and they could work in cooperation.

However nothing against Japanese investments in India.

I looked, your post sounded like there was such a thread already created.. didn't see it in first two pages. We can keep it here but then we should probably rename it as the last 2 pages have had very little to do with the US & PRC relationship. 'Managing China's Rise' works for me.. will you create it? Thanks.

No there is no such thread as yet. I was of the opinion that this thread was for discussing strategic issues. Initially such strategic issues were deemed relevant only in the context of China, India and USA. This last week we have started exploring the strategic issues from a broader context. But this is the correct thread for such discussions even though the naming is restrictive.

[Venkarl]

Checkmating China: Nuclearization of East-Asia
In all this, something of note is that the Chinese alliance of China, Pakistan, North Korea and Myanmar is made up one strong and the other very weak countries, whereas India should build a security alliance of strong, prosperous and independent partners.

Exactly....Pack of Wolves is more lethal than a Sher Khan with few Tabaquis...

Thank you for the links...we all agree that SoKo and Japan are pressed down by US from going nuclear though they have the capability...if we can, we need to focus our energies in breaking Skorea and japan away from US...ala "mard ban..be a man yaar" type by amir khan in DCH

Arihant saab..I read posts and very interesting they are..although I liked your idea of separate form/distinct visa procedure for people hailing from Taiwan...I would bank on Tibet if I want to irk China which is more reasonable in case I want to go on a diplomatic offensive.....

Taiwanese---I don't know what they think of India..perhaps I am ignorant here.. But GoI stuck to "one china policy" right from beginning...only a bunch of African and island nations have formal diplomatic relations....if GoI is really determined to engage Taiwanese..it should start on a low key encouragement of FICCI and CII to explore opportunities in Taiwan and propose options to Taiwan based companies to invest in India...from there we have to build up...practically speaking...I want to know how can we jump start our diplomatic relations with a nation whose sovereignty was diluted with that of China all these decades by our past and current leadership..

[Manishw]

Arihant saab..I read posts and very interesting they are..although I liked your idea of separate form/distinct visa procedure for people hailing from Taiwan...I would bank on Tibet if I want to irk China which is more reasonable in case I want to go on a diplomatic offensive.....

Fine do that and what Arihant has proposed.How does the Taiwan policy stop the Tibet policy unless we don't want to irk the Panda and unkil any further.Then it is a different matter altogether.

[RajeshA]

Checkmating China: Recognition of Taiwan

I don't think we should play with Taiwan question if the only purpose is to irk China. Taiwan would not appreciate that either. We should try to establish relations with Taiwan which are sincere. Should India improve the level of diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, Taiwan would be more than ready to invest its treasure in India, but our stance should be nuanced, well-formulated, well-timed, and sincere.

India's gestures and offers should have substance and retain credibility.

[Manishw]

Rajesh Ji,
The policy should be to do what is right for India as Panda is doing for itself.We should keep it's concerns in mind to the extent that it keeps our concern's in its mind which to me seems to be zero.

[RajeshA]

Rajesh Ji,
The policy should be to do what is right for India as Panda is doing for itself.We should keep it's concerns in mind to the extent that it keeps our concern's in its mind which to me seems to be zero.

I said that in the context of creating a grand Asian Security Alliance between India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Indonesia at its core, and Australia and Singapore in addition, with USA given only an observer status.

You're, I believe, saying that from today's context, where there is no such alliance, nor any initiative to build any such alliance.

[Manishw]

WRT to china, the only places where china can invade or get invaded are through vietnam and korean borders though korean border is hilly. The borders of burma/laos are full of jungles and hilly terrains. India is of course through Himalayas via illegally occupied Tibet.

Who is talking about invading china.The maximalist position of our's should be to have a reverse string of pearl and taking the fight to the chinese heartland.Nobody want's to win there.A holding operation via the Navy and marines while we thrust into Tibet and POK will be enough.

[Manishw]

India has real and valid concern's from Japan to Africa, we should have the capacity to thrust at all those point's.I simply don't buy the fact that it will create Internal instability.A country the size of India should be able to manage that.

[krisna]

To beat china at its own game we have to compete economically and keep it in its own backyard- I mentioned against military posibilities because of the reasons I have mentioned in my earlier posts.
We have to encircle dragon all over. It is the country with maximum number of bordering countries (14). Some of them are relatively wealthier and powerful like Japan and South Korea. Vietnamese are sturdy folks with animosity to Chinese. We have to make friends with other nations in central asia and Mongolia also.
The key is economic and defence co operation. Richer countries like south korea and Japan will retain their independence but poorer countries like burma/laos/Cambodia/central asia and Mongolia have to be helped by us. They easily sway to china because of poorer economy.
In our own backyard, SL/BD/Burma/Nepal are also poorer economy relatively hence easy to allurement by china. We have to employ similar tactics. They have to be brought back under Indian umbrella by all means.
We have also to project image of ours vs theirs. Image is also important. Here media should be co opted to do their job. Ex- Nepal which is similar in religion and customs to us, has become anti India at times due to Chinese influence. China and Nepal have little in common except for money which can make huge difference.

Central Asia is Russian sphere, by intruding there china is skating on thin ice. Russia might make some moves if it becomes stronger economically. India can join forces with Russia and US in different regions to combat china. It is going to be a high stakes game. Will India do it?

It is a question of each country looking behind at their own backyards so that their influence is not eroded from them.

To become a superpower it must have unquestioned hegemony in its own backyard. Deny that then china is not a superpower. this is a long drawn out affair if played well. India has patience and determination but perseverance is key for long run. GOI should formulate policies looking at the geopolitical aspects for long term.

[ramana]

So what has India done to bring Myanmar into SAARC after the early admission. Zilch! Consisitently the MEA gets sabotaged by the rest of the coterie. How about the BMIST initative? Again azilch.

[RajeshA]

So what has India done to bring Myanmar into SAARC after the early admission. Zilch! Consisitently the MEA gets sabotaged by the rest of the coterie. How about the BMIST initative? Again azilch.

ramana garu,

What do you mean by "rest of the coterie"!

[ramana]

The other ministries.

[Venkarl]

Arihant saab..I read posts and very interesting they are..although I liked your idea of separate form/distinct visa procedure for people hailing from Taiwan...I would bank on Tibet if I want to irk China which is more reasonable in case I want to go on a diplomatic offensive.....

Fine do that and what Arihant has proposed.How does the Taiwan policy stop the Tibet policy unless we don't want to irk the Panda and unkil any further.Then it is a different matter altogether.

Manish bhai....I am not against what Arihant has proposed..infact any Indian will be vying for it. I don't know whether India's Taiwan and Tibet policy will stop each other or not...but aren't we sure that both these policies are targeted at China? What I am saying is w.r.t Taiwan..things have to be started from scratch which will take some time considering geo-political equations at different snapshots in future ...as of now, if GoI considers that it has a leverage of going diplomatic offensive against China..then Tibet pans out brighter than Taiwan...anyways bringing in Tibet may be OT here. Well, to counter argue myself...I will say a separate Taiwan policy for India is in itself a leverage against Chinese aggression.

Lets say we recognize Taiwan as sovereign nation, it'll gain weight only if other big powers joins the boat. Me thinks that US is waiting for one BIG Chinese mistake to happen to recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation. Like somebody said of "covert assets" in China should be used, I'd like to add that, with whatever "covert assets" US or India has, should be used to trigger that BIG mistake to happen. I think in diplomacy one needs allies to hurt a monster like China where it pains and bleeds.

[Manishw]

To beat china at its own game we have to compete economically and keep it in its own backyard

You are not beating China at it's own game, how do you counter, Tibet,POK, string of pearls,***** etc., etc, etc. by competing only on economic term's.
factually incorrect.

I mentioned against military posibilities because of the reasons I have mentioned in my earlier posts.
We have to encircle dragon all over. It is the country with maximum number of bordering countries (14). Some of them are relatively wealthier and powerful like Japan and South Korea. Vietnamese are sturdy folks with animosity to Chinese. We have to make friends with other nations in central asia and Mongolia also.
The key is economic and defence co operation. Richer countries like south korea and Japan will retain their independence but poorer countries like burma/laos/Cambodia/central asia and Mongolia have to be helped by us. They easily sway to china because of poorer economy.
In our own backyard, SL/BD/Burma/Nepal are also poorer economy relatively hence easy to allurement by china. We have to employ similar tactics. They have to be brought back under Indian umbrella by all means.
We have also to project image of ours vs theirs. Image is also important. Here media should be co opted to do their job. Ex- Nepal which is similar in religion and customs to us, has become anti India at times due to Chinese influence. China and Nepal have little in common except for money which can make huge difference.

If you have been through my posts I have said that all countries require different approaches.If you want to approach say mongolia fine do that how does it stop you from say approaching Soko? why compartmentalize?

Central Asia is Russian sphere, by intruding there china is skating on thin ice. Russia might make some moves if it becomes stronger economically. India can join forces with Russia and US in different regions to combat china. It is going to be a high stakes game. Will India do it?

I have already said take help from anybody by all mean's but prepare for everything yourself.

It is a question of each country looking behind at their own backyards so that their influence is not eroded from them.

Have we taken care of our backyard??? Sorry I guess I am missing something in this statement of yours.

To become a superpower it must have unquestioned hegemony in its own backyard. Deny that then china is not a superpower. this is a long drawn out affair if played well. India has patience and determination but perseverance is key for long run. GOI should formulate policies looking at the geopolitical aspects for long term.

I think we are debating how to cut the Panda down to its size and taking advantage ourselves.

[krisna]

The General In His Labyrinth
It has been difficult for India to support Burma for many years. Because of the democracy and its moral values whatever you call it. India never followed pragmatic policies to secure its interests.
Recently so it has started to think beyond its geographical boundaries with its rising economy. It is casting its eyes around and seeing what damage already has been done and what can be salvaged.
So now it is moral dilemma amonsgt the various ministeries. These ministeries are made of people who have their own moral agendas of yesteryears when India was still in socialist raj. They have not changed much in caging india to its moral dilemma.

With increasing clout due to economy it is slowly shedding these shenanigans.

The above article is also one of the things like above mentioned, but does say what India has done so far.
Burma POV is that India is not consistent like china which is steadfast with it for all these years.
India has to be pragmatic and support who ever is in power but also maintain relations with opposition.

May be OT . I will cross post it to Indo Burma thread.

[Carl_T]

I think key to managing China is to build relations with CA nations like Kazakhstan in addition to Iran rather than thinking about East asian nations like Korea/Japan/Taiwan.

The East Asians, being under US hegemony will probably not offer much to India, while Kazakhstan offers India a direct view of China's weaker regions. Furthermore an Indian presence in Kazakh will probably reduce Russian worries about the weakness of their own hinterlands. In addition Iran needs to be managed as well because it offers a major energy route to China while having various strategic benefits of its own vis a vis the other neighbour.

I don't know what we're planning to do with the Ayni base in Tajikstan.

[krisna]

Manishw,
please avoid attacking personally. you can disagree with my post in a gentler manner.
Thanks.

[Manishw]

Krisna, I have not attacked you personally nor was it my intention .I cannot find anything in my post which suggests so.However if you do find it to be personnel kindly accept my apologies

[RajeshA]

Checkmating China: Counter-Alliance Framework

To become a superpower it must have unquestioned hegemony in its own backyard. Deny that then china is not a superpower. this is a long drawn out affair if played well. India has patience and determination but perseverance is key for long run. GOI should formulate policies looking at the geopolitical aspects for long term.

krisna ji,

That is the key to containing China - by not allowing it any supremacy in any region.

Now the thing is China is a Pacific Ocean Power while India is an Indian Ocean Power. China's strategy has been to box us in in South Asia. India has to have a similar strategy - to box China in in East Asia.

China wanted to box us in in South Asia, by building up our neighbors militarily and as our adversaries, to a level at which we feel strategically constrained. India should follow the same principle - to box in China in East Asia, by supporting countries there through the Asian Security Alliance, countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam. These countries if they become nuclear powers would neutralize the big psychological shadow that China throws. China would become just one of the 7 nuclear weapons power in East Asia (PRC, North Korea <-> Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam; Russia).

India on the other hand could become the unquestioned Indian Ocean Region Superpower. From the Asian Security Alliance we would still be having Indonesia in our neighborhood, but it need not be a nuclear weapons power. Pakistan would eventually collapse. Myanmar can be brought over to the side of the Jedis . India should be able to push back Chinese intrusion in the Indian Subcontinent.

While the White Bishops and Rooks will stand against the Black Queen (PRC) in East Asia, the Black Queen has only pawns up against us (though very troublesome pawns). If we play the game just as well as China, the containment field against China would be far more sturdier than what they can put up against us. {Black-White not to be understood in any racist way, please}

So we deny them unquestioned hegemony in East Asia and Central Asia and lock them out of South Asia. That in fact makes India an unquestioned power in IOR and checkmates Chinese ambitions to be the dominant power in any region of Asia, and thereby the world.

The point to note is that China should really be checkmated in East Asia using rooks and bishops and not merely pawns. For that reason, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnamese should go nuclear.

[Manishw]

^ Agree more or less Rajesh Ji.Just like to add that India should prepare for a thrust into Tibet and P.O.K along with what you have mentioned.

[RajeshA]

P.O.K is the low hanging fruit and should be taken actively and with vigor. Tibet is a different cup of fruit and will probably fall off, when there is a strong wind blowing through China. We can of course contribute to that wind.

[ramana]

Folks, The thread is about US and PRC relationship and India. I don't see posts related to the thread topic. Dealing in isolation with PRC, US and India is the silo thinking again.

RajeshA, PRC bandwagonned on the West policy of supporting small states on India's periphery. IOW they didnt start first. As I recall it was COK settlement with TSp that started the ball rolling.

As for the wind that can shake the red Dragon is the Falun Gong and their thinking is Buddhist.

[Manishw]

^ yes Ramana Ji I remember you posting that we should see that the two worthies are not entangled and what we can do about it.I also remember that you posted about the original relationship between them to have a better understanding of things.I was trying to do something similar but getting only at a part.Will try to explore as a whole along the lines you suggested, till then will refrain from posting along lines which I have been doing in this thread.Thnx.

[ramana]

BTW, this thread is about two years old not just started recently.

And also dont make polemics on other members. Even if you didn't mean it, its what the others percieve.

Its like harrasment.