Doing some rough calculations to figure out how many T-72s would need to be upgraded ...chackojoseph wrote:Please re read the bold line. This is exactly what I am thinking.srai wrote:Some T-72s will have to be upgraded ... but not all 1,700.
With Arjun Mk.I (and in another 4 years Arjun Mk.II) being produced at 50-100 units/year (plus local T-90S production), there will be a transitional period where T-72s will need to soldier on while new Arjun and T-90S regiments are being raised between 2010 and 2020 timeframe. IMO, there will probably be a need to upgrade at least 600-800 T-72s as an interim measure so they can stay in service till 2020/25. These upgraded T-72s could be used in the reserve regiments after T90S and Arjun are fully inducted.
Then there is a quote from Distinguished Scientist W Selvamurthy (former CC LS and HR, now in admin) which he told me. He said that "once they start using the tank, they will be more confident." Actually, it looks like happening now. so far we have not seen anon officers cribbing over the bad Arjun. it could be calm before the storm or someone is seriously auditing Arjun induction from outside.
Roughly speaking, according to IA's ORBAT and current orders:
32 regiments of T-72 [@62 tanks per regiment = 1,984 tanks total]
27 regiments of T-90S [(310+372+1000) = 1,682 tanks @62 per regiment]
4 regiments of Arjun MK.I [(124+124) = 248 tanks @62 per regiment]
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63 tank regiments total
As it is evident from above, based on current orders T-90S is not directly replacing the T-72s in service. With Future MBT not going into production until 2020+ and Arjun MK.II going into production around 2014, the T-72 upgrade numbers depends on the number of regiments of Arjun MK.II orders.
Given that IA has major costs associated with the modernization of its artillery, helicopters, vehicles etc between 2010-2020, IA will be forced to limit how much budget allocation its MBT armored forces get. Let's say IA will spend around $500 million to $1 billion USD annually (not to exceed) between 2010-2020 for the upgrades of T-72, and induction of T-90S and Arjun MK.II.
Assuming the costs are roughly the following:
$1 million per T-72 upgrades
$5 million per T-90S
$5 million per Arjun MK.II
$5 million per FMBT
Given that IA would want to completely switch to FMBT production in around 10-15 years, we can assume that the T-90S and Arjun MK.II production run will roughly be 10 years. Although production follows typically a "bell curve" with a gradual increase to peak and then gradual decrease to finish, for simplicity sake let's just use the overall average produced spread out equally over 10 years.
Between 2010-2015
$500 million for 100 T-90S (2 regiments/year at @45 units + 5 reserves (12 reserves @ later schedule))
$248 million for 248 T-72s upgrades (4 regiments/year)
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$748 million/year for MBT purchase/upgrade
Between 2015-2020
$500 million for 100 T-90S (new regiments plus full 12 reserves for earlier regiments))
$310 million for 62 Arjun MK.II (1 regiment/year)
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$810 million/year for MBT purchase
Between 2020-2025
$310 million for 62 Arjun MK.II (1 regiment/year)
$620 million for 124 FMBT (2 regiments/year)
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$930 million/year for MBT purchase
Based on the above hypothesis, 620 Arjun MK.II (or 10 regiments) could be produced and 1,240 T-72 (or 20 regiments) could be upgraded. Remaining 2 regiments (or 124 units) of not-upgraded T-72s would be the first to be replaced by the FMBT after 2020. At 2 to 3 regiments per year, it will take around 7 to 10 years (2027-2030) for FMBT to replace all of the upgraded T-72s in service (20 regiments or 1,240 units) before it can begin replacing the T-90S and Arjun.
Between 2025-2030
$930 million for 186 FMBT (3 regiments/year)
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$930 million/year for MBT purchase
Upgraded T-72s would need to serve until 2030 based on the above rough calculations.