Wikileaks Diplomatic Cable Dump - News and Discussion

Sri · Post by **Sri** » 30 Nov 2010 12:00

^^^

This is way different from Moika lewenski Case. That case was handled by an independent investigator appointed by US congress to look into illegal or wrong doing by a sitting President just like Watergate was different where Washington Post proved illegal activity by a sitting President.

The importance that US is attaching to these docs is unprecedented.

It's like telling someone what you really thinkabout him or her without actually saying it to face... maintaining plausible deniability.

Putin is 'alpha dog' and Mededev is 'Robin'. Message to Rusiia ' we know who calls the shot'.

Karzai a 'nervous wreck'. message to him to 'just chill'

Saudi King demanding attack on Iran. Message to Iran 'we are not the only ones who want to take you down'.

All about Pakistan is something Pakis know.

This is a hog wash...

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 30 Nov 2010 12:14

As per wikileaks breakdown by topic, there are cables on:
http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/tags/Alltags

Nicobar Islands
Lakshadweep Islands
Andaman Islands

dinesha · Post by **dinesha** » 30 Nov 2010 12:15

w.r.t "self-appointed frontrunner"
http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/20 ... 80163.html

SUBJECT: (S) REPORTING AND COLLECTION NEEDS: THE UNITED NATIONS
...
..
¶B. Key Continuing Issues

1) UN Security Council Reform (FPOL-1).
-- Positions, attitudes, and divisions among member states on
UN Security Council (UNSC) reform.
-- Views, plans and intentions of Perm 5 and other member
states on the issue of UNSC enlargement, revision of UNSC
procedures or limitation of Perm 5 privileges.
-- International deliberations regarding UNSC expansion among
key groups of countries: self-appointed frontrunners for
permanent UNSC membership Brazil, Germany, India, and Japan
(the Group of Four or G-4); the Uniting for Consensus group
(especially Mexico, Italy, and Pakistan) that opposes
additional permanent UNSC seats; the African Group; and the
EU, as well as key UN officials within the Secretariat and
the UN General Assembly (UNGA) Presidency.
-- Willingness of member states to implement proposed reforms.
-- Reactions of UN senior leadership towards member
recommendations for UNSC reform.
....
...
4) Arms Control and Treaty Monitoring (ACTM-4).

-- Member plans for plenary meetings of the Nuclear Suppliers
Group; views of the US-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation
Initiative.
....

CLINTON

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 30 Nov 2010 12:18

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-emba ... nts/204917
April 30, 2009
SUBJECT: VICE FOREIGN MINISTER HE DISCUSSES G-20, DPRK,
IRAN, AF/PAK, UNSC REFORM, TAIWAN, TIBET WITH CHARGE

21. (C) China was concerned by "momentum" that was building on UN Security Council reform, which was "not good" for the P-5, VFM He said. China wanted the United States to maintain its position on UNSC reform and not be "proactive" on the matter, which the PRC feared could result in a UN General Assembly resolution on the subject. The P-5 "club" should not be "diluted," VFM He said. If we end up with a "P-10," both China and the United States would "be in trouble." Moreover, it would be difficult for the Chinese public to accept Japan as a permanent member of the UNSC. The Charge replied that the Administration had not completed its policy review on UNSC expansion, so we do not yet have a position on specific proposals. Nonetheless, the United States believed that UN members should be allowed to state their positions freely and openly without undue P-5 influence. Regarding Japan, the Charge said that, while no decision had been made about which countries to support for permanent membership on the UNSC, it was hard to envision any expansion of the Council that did not include Japan, which was the second-largest contributor to the UN budget.

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 30 Nov 2010 13:04

Indian and US preceptions differ on Taliban

While the entire article is hard to swallow, and I dont have the links to the cables of wikileaks which would support the cause as espoused by the article, some notable points are

....
But the intriguing part is what the US President Barack Obama said, namely, that Wikileaks hasn’t brought anything new to the table. Which means, Washington knew all along since 2004 how the smart Pakistani generals operate — especially the then chief of Pakistan’s ISI by the name Pervez Kayani — and worse still, kept defraying the latter’s ‘expense account.’
....
....
Few will recollect that the first time the US conceded Pakistan’s special interests in Afghanistan was after a visit by the then US secretary of state Colin Powell to Islamabad in mid-October 2001. (also refer to the recent american statement, which was signed by Obama, that acknowledged chinas role in south aisa.)
....
....
How do these various strands add up? One, the US is not quite the bumbling superpower at the mercy of the Pakistani generals, as the Indian strategic community estimates. Plainly put, this has been a symbiotic relationship. Two, the US never shared the Indians’ one-dimensional view of the Taliban as representing the forces of darkness.
....
....
Three, the US is not terrified of the Taliban. On the contrary, the Taliban leaders willingly accepted funding by US oil companies in the past and there is no reason why they — including the Haqqanis — shouldn’t do so again.

As the article had pointed out India should have realized when the, Kunduz airlift happened, what was going to be the end game in Afghanistan. In fact Pakistan's tendencies would have got reinforced by the kunduz airlift.

Another factor which India did not take into consideration, was that Taliban was a pariah in US because of the troubles which Bill Clinton was going through due to Monicagate scandal and the blue dress. He badly needed the women votes, which would shore him up. And one of the cost of the women vote was Taliban's isolation. After all Clinton publicly admitted, on TV, that he lied. 9/11 happened, very early in Bush Jrs term. Otherwise Taliban would have been accommodated. There are other regimes in West Asia which are American allies, whose conduct is as bad as was Taliban's.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 30 Nov 2010 13:24

Some great candid viewpoints from HRH the Duke of York (Randy Andy)! It could only have been secretly recorded by teh US team present.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... sador.html

Wikileaks: Best quotes from Duke of York's Kyrgyzstan breakfast with US ambassador
The Duke of York's candid comments about British fraud investigators, the French and corruption in Kyrgyzstan have been disclosed in a leaked diplomatic cable

Surprising an American ambassador with his foul language, the Duke railed against the “idiocy” of a Serious Fraud Office investigation into allegations of bribery surrounding BAE Systems, and spoke “cockily” in a discussion that “verged on the rude”.

The comments were reported by Tatania Gfoeller, the United States’ envoy to Kyrgyzstan, who sent a secret cable to Washington on Oct 29 2008.

Here are some of the most eye-catching phrases from the colourful dispatch.

WikiLeaks: Duke of York's attack on 'stupid' British government 29 Nov 2010
The 'Rude' Prince

"Astonishingly candid, the discussion at times verged on the rude (from the British side)."

A long brunch

"Originally scheduled to last an hour over brunch, the briefing ended up lasting two hours, thanks to the super-engaged Prince’s pointed questions."

'Unmitigated patriotic fervour'

"The representative of the British owner of Kyrgyzneftigas ... (said) that a Kyrgyz shareholder was now suing the company, saying that his 'human rights' were being violated by the terms of his shareholders’ agreement. The Prince reacted with unmitigated patriotic fervour."

'The rough with the smooth'

"When participants explained that some Kyrgyz feel that they were 'unfairly' led in the 1990s to sign unfavourable contracts with Westerners, he (the Prince) evinced no sympathy. 'A contract is a contract,' he insisted. 'You have to take the rough with the smooth'."

Corruption discussions

"After having half-heartedly danced around the topic for a bit, only mentioning “personal interests” in pointed fashion, the business representatives then plunged into describing what they see as the appallingly high state of corruption in the Kyrgyz economy."

'Astonishing display of candour'

"In an astonishing display of candour in a public hotel where the brunch was taking place, all of the businessmen ... chorused that nothing gets done in Kyrgyzstan if President Bakiyev’s son Maxim does not get 'his cut'."

Doing business 'in the Yukon'

"One businessman said that doing business here is 'like doing business in the Yukon' in the nineteenth century, I. e. Only those willing to participate in local corrupt practices are able to make any money.

'Sounds like France'

"Before all you heard was Akayev’s son’s name. Now it’s Bakiyev’s son’s name.” At this point the Duke of York laughed uproariously, saying that: 'All of this sounds exactly like France'.

Stealing 'while they can'

"The Ambassador stated that part of the problem with business conditions in Kyrgyzstan was the rapid turnover in government positions. Some reacted to their short tenures in a corrupt manner, wanting to 'steal while they can' until they were turned out of office."

'Mock groan'

"With a mock groan, the Duke of York then exclaimed: 'My God, what am I supposed to tell these people?!' More seriously, he invited his guests to suggest ways Kyrgyzstan’s economic prospects and attractiveness could be improved."

Returning to a 'favourite theme'

"Returning to what is obviously a favourite theme, Prince Andrew cracked: 'They won’t need to make any changes to attract the French either!'"

Turning 'thoughtful'

"Again turning thoughtful, the Prince mused that outsiders could do little to change the culture of corruption here. 'They themselves have to have a change of heart. Just like you have to cure yourself of anorexia. No one else can do it for you'."

Prince Andrew acting 'cockily'

"More animated than ever, he stated cockily: “And this time we aim to win!”

'Language I won’t use in front of ladies'

"Showing that he is an equal-opportunity Great Game player, HRH then turned to the topic of China. He recounted that when he had recently asked the President of Tajikistan what he thought of growing Chinese influence in Central Asia, the President had responded 'with language I won’t use in front of ladies'.

Just getting started

"The brunch had already lasted almost twice its allotted time, but the Prince looked like he was just getting started."

'Railing' at investigators

"He railed at British anti-corruption investigators, who had had the “idiocy” of almost scuttling the Al-Yamama deal with Saudi Arabia. "

Roaring their approval

"His mother’s subjects seated around the table roared their approval. He then went on to 'these (expletive) journalists, especially from the National Guardian, who poke their noses everywhere' and (presumably) make it harder for British businessmen to do business. The crowd practically clapped."

Capping off with a 'zinger'

"He then capped this off with a zinger: castigating 'our stupid (sic) British and American governments which plan at best for ten years whereas people in this part of the world plan for centuries.' There were calls of 'hear, hear' in the private brunch hall."

The 'cherished Prince'

"Unfortunately for the assembled British subjects, their cherished Prince was now late to the Prime Minister’s. He regretfully tore himself away from them and they from him. On the way out, one of them confided to the Ambassador: 'What a wonderful representative for the British people! We could not be prouder of our royal family!'

'Neuralgic patriotism'

"Prince Andrew reached out to the Ambassador with cordiality and respect, evidently valuing her insights. However, he reacted with almost neuralgic patriotism whenever any comparison between the United States and United Kingdom came up."

'Best geography teachers in the world'

"Snapped the Duke ... The Americans don’t understand geography. Never have. In the U.K., we have the best geography teachers in the world!"

X Share & bookmark
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... ssador.htm

.

Raja Ram · Post by **Raja Ram** » 30 Nov 2010 16:34

Gentle Rakshaks,

Here is another pointer that this wikeleaks seems to be something big. Now Assange threatens to release something else that is targetted at bringing down one or two US Banks

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 015476.cms

Are we witnessing the first operning salvos of an information war unleashed? Or is too early to come to that conclusion?

In any case, such threats seems to indicate that this was not a planned lead by the USG. Also note, that the USG is pulling out all stops to counter the slow lifting of the veils. It is trying to build consensus across the board for shutting down wikeleaks. One can expect tremendous pressure to close this down and get Assange tied down with charges wherever he may be. They will proclaim an international offender, get a red corner issued soon and do the usual extraordinary rendition.

Can a private individual like Assange do this on his own? Who or what power is behind this?

That leads to some thinking. Who is going to gain with this formidable assault on the US through what seems to be a new battle front - one based on information and its linkage to a globalised financial system? Has not there been an increase in activity by one or two countries recently in terms of hacking? Were they dry runs for this?

It is just a train of thought worth exploring - for a forum and forum members who take pride in the fact of thinking through the obvious apparent reality and getting at the reality

.

Or maybe all this is a ramble of an idle mind. So take it for what it is worth.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 30 Nov 2010 16:39

its turning out a bit like nostradamus, you can interpret it however you want...
so far the only people really upset are the paquis
everyone else has dismissed it as frivolous

(meanwhile, i can see vladimir trying on his batman suit and posing in the mirror... he must be loving it!)

Raja Ram · Post by **Raja Ram** » 30 Nov 2010 16:51

Actually, if you want to be really creative, you can also link the sudden flaring up of North Korea - South Korea hot spot also to this larger initiative of bringing down the US pre-eminence. Some low intensity clashes with US supported allies to show the limits of US power and support, some economic pressure to bring down US pre-eminence in economic matters, some diplomatic coercion with neighbouring states who happen to be US partners.

It is like a multifront, multidimensional push to change the power equations. It could be completely fortituous or completely calibirated moves.

All of this points to one power (and no prizes for guessing which one folks! it is too elementary for Watsons of BRF). But this is still a hypothesis at best. Can't really say for sure.

Any way, all this is way OT for this thread. Maybe should be part of some geo-political thread.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 30 Nov 2010 16:57

Kayani behind conflict on Kerry-Lugar bill: Wikileaks

The whistle-blower website Wikileaks released sensitive documents alleging that the Pakistan’s army chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani’s opposition led to the conflict on the Kerry-Lugar Bill as it was going to result in greater civilian control on the military, DawnNews reported.

According to the released documents, General Kayani has learnt from the mistakes made by former military ruler Pervez Musharraf. He is using the parliament and the government while staying in the background, the documents allege. In this way, he is becoming an obstacle to any major change in the country’s policy pertaining to Fata.

The correspondence stated that with aid coming in from the Gulf States, the Haqqani network has grown too strong, that defeating it will not be easy for the Pakistani military.

Jai Ho!

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 30 Nov 2010 17:01

i think the wikileaks are in fact a cunning BRF plot - almost every hypothesis raised on BRF is now seeing the light of day as a "leak"

either its a scam operation by the admins
or dragon has downloaded BRF and recirculated
or the SD actually spends all day reading BRF

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 30 Nov 2010 17:02

Certainly there is one main beneficiary, and many subsidiary beneficiaries, from the fact that the US - or if you look at it holistically the west in general - is brought down a peg or two on the moral pole. Who now can talk of democracy, of values, of absolutes, without going red in the face? The recent diversion of net traffic in one direction is a pointer about capabilities as well.

That is one perspective. On the other hand, someone pointed to this being the equivalent of 9/11 from an information standpoint. Well then, although the US looks red in the face, it now has a much stronger case to act against Iran; just as the real 9/11 presented a good case for getting into Afghanistan and then (relatively speaking) against Iraq. Somehow, the world knows now how many countries want to take on Iran but can't say it out loud. If it happens, then, these countries will have much less of a job trying to sell their anti-Iran position.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 30 Nov 2010 17:38

The world as we know it is changing dynamically as we speak. Too many new parameters and too many new variables are effecting the stability of the system. Wikileaks is the new external stimuli to the system and it is really effecting the system internally/externally. There are going to be many changes to the "normal" way things work.
If the disturbance in NK or Iran explodes to new levels we can be assured the disturbance will be global. It will not be local to Middle east or far east any more. The last time there was shell firing in the koreas our stock markets were tanked. There is no direct correlation as I understand but still there was the "cause" and "effect".
I dont think this is a US conspiracy to take down Iran but they can try to use this situation to their advantage. May be use Iran as a smoke screen for something bigger. Even though India did not make it to the headlines we can be assured our future will be effected in a way much more than was effected before in a similar circumstances.We must tread very carefully to get out of this landmine zone.
A thinking political mind must be at the helm of Indian affairs.

Raja Ram · Post by **Raja Ram** » 30 Nov 2010 17:44

Can't help but recollecting General Padmanabhan's "novel." Remember the way that "story" panned out anyone?

amit · Post by **amit** » 30 Nov 2010 18:05

Sometimes we can end up over estimating the Panda's strength/abilities just as we can (or should I write tend to?) underestimate Khan's abilities and will to protect its interests. If a bank falls and Khan economy tanks then Panda is going to get hurt as well. If indeed it is Panda which is orchestrating this leak then it would be a hollow victory if US falls.

Another point that needs to be considered. It's one thing to be inside a secure network and steal 250,000 classified documents for which you have top level access. It's totally another thing to hack into the US Gov network and steal a quarter of a million of classified docments while leaving no trace. Lets not turn Panda into superhuman.

JMT

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 30 Nov 2010 18:55

True. I suppose it no longer matters who actually orchestrated this, if at all. What we need to do is maximise the benefits and minimise the negative fall-out for ourselves. Already there are many positive indicators...

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 30 Nov 2010 19:16

JE Menon wrote:True. I suppose it no longer matters who actually orchestrated this, if at all. What we need to do is maximise the benefits and minimise the negative fall-out for ourselves. Already there are many positive indicators...

Very true. Some perspective on the documents:

* As of now, only 0.1% of the documents have been released (281 out of 250K plus)
* None of the documents are Top Secret. In fact, only a handful are even "Secret"
* So far, nothing originating from Kabul, Islamabad or New Delhi has been released

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 30 Nov 2010 20:07

Today's releases just started a few minutes ago. Some reports say TSP origin cables will be part of today's set. Let's wait and see.

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 30 Nov 2010 20:41

Succession of the Head of the Commonwealth
------------------------------------------

¶6. (C) Banerji acknowledged that succession of the Head of the Commonwealth would have to be dealt with when Queen Elizabeth passes, as there is no rule stipulating that the British monarch is the head and no procedure for selecting a new head. He acknowledged that heir-apparent to the British Crown, Prince Charles, does not “command the same respect” as the Queen and said the Commonwealth was trying quietly to get him more involved in Commonwealth affairs. Banerji noted Marlborough House, the Commonwealth Secretariat’s current location, was a royal property, owned and funded by the British Royal Family, and mused that may be a factor in the discussions. He noted that succession was not actively being discussion within the Commonwealth.

http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/20 ... N1385.html

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Nov 2010 21:13

pgbhat, Now go back to the Mathai book about how the need for India to be in Commonwealth to retain its efficay was discussed. And the recent FTA or Commonwealth trade zone initiative from GOI!

Looks like we can have a rotating head of Commonwealth in future.

R^2, Even though you point to panda, it could be the perfidious albion trying to reset the relationship.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Nov 2010 21:22

Resources drive geo-poltics. And resources include economic, political, social and demographics. The Middle East is a Persian playground since antiquity. The Arab identity is a recent one post prophet Muhammad. Earlier it was the Assyrian vs Persians.

Its but natural that old identities re-emerge after the mask is dropped. The Arabs always fear the Persian dominaince for it has demographics and economic. With Shiaism as its rallying point it even holds the modernity in dogma. Shias are more modern then Sunnis dogma wise.

Arabs also fear the Turks. However Turks don't have dogma on their side.

Recall Saddam Hussain's last words "Beware of the Persians!"

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 30 Nov 2010 21:33

ramana-ji, lets not forget xenobia and the nabatean civilisations of the arab regions (which the romans effectively extinguished) in between the persian waves and post muhammad arab tribes

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Nov 2010 21:37

True but that memory doesn't play here.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 30 Nov 2010 21:44

Ramana

There is no evidence so far that this is anything other than what it claims to be - a massive leak of mostly gossip and a bit of "secret" data pieces. I don't think there is any reason to suspect that this was a planned leak or UK or China etc.

I went to school with several US and UK military types as well as "State Department officer" types and "Israeli engineers". Since the past weekend, I got in touch with some of them and the near unanimous response I got was that this could easily have been done by one guy because of the poor classification schemes and bad inter-department security coordination. All the US military officers said they have/had access to this type of material, which comes with the posting. One guy, who is a co-worker of mine and a classmate, used to be a Submarine officer in the Navy and told me that he would usually only have access to data sets pertaining directly to his posting e.g. Submarine related or relating to the region where his sub may be in. However, if he wanted access to Latin American data, say, all he'd have to do is to email some administrator in the Pentagon with some plausible reason for his need to access and almost always the requests will be granted. Only NSA, CIA, Special Forces etc. were strictly guarded.

Now, you need to realize that all the 250K leaked documents were classifed "Secret" or lower. In fact, only 15K docs are Secret and the rest are lower than that! This guy Bradley Manning had "Top Secret" clearance. So if he was downloading a lower level bunch of material, it would typically not raise red flags.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Nov 2010 21:50

OK. When do you thing there will be US scrutiny of what the diplomutts were communicating: the language and the tone and attitude and does it help the US objectives? Seems like there is breakdown in discipline and espirit de corps of the diplomatic corps. Its like a bunch of bubbas were deputised as diplomutts and we see the end result of their lack of finesse. May be Georgetown Diplomatic school is not what it was.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 30 Nov 2010 21:55

Ramana

The diplomats' gossip is just a small fraction of the material. If we were to take transcripts of any private diplomatic exchange between ANY Western country and another country, I'd bet that the material would be very similar. Private conversations are often candid, raw and even expletive filled.

We cannot judge that all these diplomats are novices or of low intellect based on a handful of data points that could very well be outliers.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 30 Nov 2010 22:07

Rangudu wrote:Ramana

There is no evidence so far that this is anything other than what it claims to be - a massive leak of mostly gossip and a bit of "secret" data pieces. I don't think there is any reason to suspect that this was a planned leak or UK or China etc.

...

Now, you need to realize that all the 250K leaked documents were classifed "Secret" or lower. In fact, only 15K docs are Secret and the rest are lower than that! This guy Bradley Manning had "Top Secret" clearance. So if he was downloading a lower level bunch of material, it would typically not raise red flags.

Late last night, I was watching MSNBC, and they had James Rubin, an uber arrogant ex-state dept insider during Clinton. He made the same point, namely, nothing top secret about these docs, and he was actually sort of endorsing the leak. He said these are the type of docs which would be labeled "important" and disclosed to someone on a need to know basis, but nothing secret. And to give you a glimpse of how US media, at least the elite ones, are another branch of US govt protecting its interests, James Rubin said that he would be comfortable releasing such documents to the NYT because they will surely exercise "editorial judjement", but not Dir Spiegel or Guardian

. If he can't even trust these 2 western entitites, does Shirleen's Nation rag have a chance

.

Raja Ram · Post by **Raja Ram** » 30 Nov 2010 22:11

My submission - These cannot be dismissed as diplomatic gossip. This is intel gathered as raw and unprocessed information.

Typically each mission will have a cypher room. These are daily updates that go from each mission to the Ministry, or in this case SD. The inputs are gathered and analysed. At the first cut, they identify patterns or what is called "strings". This goes in for further analysis through multi point data checks, that includes inputs from Humint and Techint.

The missions also receive generic instructions, and specific instructions from the Ministry/SD.

The cables are generally coded and the code book gets periodically changed. The mission heads and key personnel actually draft the message and these are entered by code through a cypher machine and transmitted from a special room inside a mission.

These are the cables that are getting leaked. This is the SOP. What you are reading through are the decoded versions. These daily inputs all lead to policy formulation and eventual position a government takes.

Since it is raw, they are not considered as anything more substantial than either summation of minutes or raw capture of information. Only when it becomes intelligence, they are really acted upon and this information is what gets higher levels of classification.

That this leak was done by one man and it is plausible is open to debate. It is definitely plausible as Rangudu claims. It is also plausible that once such leak has happened, either by concerted efforts by a country or by an individual's act, that the ramifications are getting managed in a concerted way. Not more plausible or less plausible than this being just an individual enacted leak.

That this is serious, is evident from the round the clock action mounted by the USG. While it may not bring anything new to the table of the various countries diplomatic corps, it gives an insight into the way american SD thinks. It confirms or revalidates a few things. That in itself is quite valuable. Mind you, there will be other sources of information that these countries would have gathered about US actions. Some of the revelations here may provide some clues to some missing links or revalidate a conclusion they may have reached about possible US actions.

At the very least it is an embarassment for the USG. The claim is that wikeleaks have cables from 1966 onwards. That is a huge volume. Will make for some interesting reading if it ever comes out. My own feeling is that this will get capped in a few days and the publishing will stop. The USG has already started mobilising countries to call for the halt of further lifting of the veils.

ShivaS · Post by **ShivaS** » 30 Nov 2010 22:24

Its all writing on the wall
to be read re read , re read and re read all over but never learn no?.

Now I understand the origin of the words Un dipomatic, Un Parlimantary
example MMS has been called the Marge of India a la Mrs Home Simpson (by Late Night comedians) for his turban..

And Now Mrs Clinton says leaks are world threat? did she mean World Treat?

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 30 Nov 2010 22:29

Rangudu wrote:Today's releases just started a few minutes ago. Some reports say TSP origin cables will be part of today's set. Let's wait and see.

Here's a site that claims to have all 250K docs on a live basis. The tags don't seem to work however. Will try to figure out the app.

http://owni.fr/2010/11/27/wikileaks-sta ... %28Owni%29

Added later:

Here are the results for India

http://statelogs.owni.fr/index.php/search/?search=india

Sorry, but I misread the claim. They have the same as others only about 1%

Never mind.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 30 Nov 2010 23:09

Lots of chatter in these leaks about NK. Question to the gurus who know more about NK than I do. From the news reports I have read and/or listened to, it seems to me that while the South Koreans are concerned about NK, they don't seem to be gung ho on an all out attack on NK like its leadership is in cahoots with US. Is it another one of those Gulf situations where US in bed with tin pots talks about "international consensus" against Iran, only here its the South Korean ruling elite & US drumming up hysteria against NK, or do South Koreans generally view NK as a threat?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Nov 2010 23:13

R^2, Thanks for your insights. What in your humble assessments do these cables confirm or disprove?

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 30 Nov 2010 23:18

the SK strategic perception of NK i think has shifted from imminent war to potential for war over the past 2 decades

that said, US forces do maintain tactical nuclear forces on the korean peninsula (last i heard)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Nov 2010 23:28

X-posted...
This is from the wiki leaks, courtesy Guardian newspaper
US embassy cables: China reiterates 'red lines'

A very insigthfull cable. Some things which can be gleamed are
1) India is not mentioned anywhere. This is good. India should seek to stay away from the tangle that is US-PRC.
2) This cable is all about Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Af-Pak, Iran.
3) US has requested China to open a transit to Afghanistan, the so called "Northern Distribution Network", for non-leathal goods and material.
4) China wants to preserve the P-5 hegmony and wants to remain the sole Asian nation with the veto power. It opposes UNSC reforms because of Japans candidature.
5) It appears that the US views Tibet as a part of China and does not officially contemplate an independent Tibet.

Some of the excerpts are given below

....
....
8. (C) In the first two G-20 Financial Summits, U.S. and Chinese positions had been close, closer even than the United States and Europe, VFM (Chinese Vice Foreign Minister) He noted.
....
....
VFM He felt that the U.S.-U.K.-China "troika" had been effective: Beijing could persuade the developing countries, Washington could influence Japan and South Korea, and London could bring along the Europeans. (again we see China positioning itself as the natural leader of the so called 3rd world)
....
....
9 D) Reforming the international monetary system, vis-a-vis the dollar and an alternative reserve currency such as Special Drawing Rights (SDRs).
10. (C) Expounding on this last topic, VFM(Chinese Vice Foreign Minster) He stated that a stable U.S. dollar was good for China, and Beijing had no interest in "destabilizing the system." The system, however, was "not perfect and needs reform." He said China had a huge stake in how the United States managed the dollar. Further, VFM He suggested that the RMB could become a component of the SDR. Mentioning that the RMB could compose two percent of the SDR value, VFM He noted that this was more of a symbolic than practical change.
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The Charge (i.e. US Representative in China) stated that China still had an opportunity to contribute to the security and stability of both Afghanistan and Pakistan. One way to do so would be to agree to a re-supply route via China for U.S. forces in Afghanistan.
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VFM He said the critical question was whether both sides would agree to "take care" of each other's "core interests." (i.e. Taiwan and Tibet)
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The question was whether the key interests for each side would be accommodated. The United States had its core interests, VFM He asserted, such as U.S. naval vessels that had operated near the Chinese coast. Both sides agreed to "step down" over that issue.
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Regarding the Dalai Lama, China hoped the United States would deny him a visa, and if not, then agree to hold no official meetings with him, including no meeting with President Obama.
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The Charge (i.e. US Representative in China) expressed concern with China's defining Tibet as a "core issue" with the apparent expectation that others would "step back."
The Dalai Lama is a respected religious leader and Nobel Laureate, and U.S. officials meet with him in that capacity. Future meetings by U.S. officials with the Dalai Lama could not be ruled out. China should take steps to address Tibetans' legitimate grievances and engage the Dalai Lama's representatives in productive dialogue. Denying a visa to the Dalai Lama was not being contemplated.
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17. (C) Another issue that could "derail" relations was arms sales to Taiwan, VFM He said.
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21. (C) China was concerned by "momentum" that was building on UN Security Council reform, which was "not good" for the P-5, VFM He said. China wanted the United States to maintain its position on UNSC reform and not be "proactive" on the matter, which the PRC feared could result in a UN General Assembly resolution on the subject. The P-5 "club" should not be "diluted". Moreover, it would be difficult for the Chinese public to accept Japan as a permanent member of the UNSC. The Charge replied that...it was hard to envision any expansion of the Council that did not include Japan, which was the second-largest contributor to the UN budget.

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Once we get enough data we can have a thread exclusively on India realted wikileaks.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 30 Nov 2010 23:44

No link because of site being down but I managed to copy some juicy parts from a London-origin cable released today.

This relates to discussions between US Undersecretary for NonProliferation Ellen Tauscher and British FM Miliband and some other officials including this lady who was Ms. Tauscher's counterpart. Note that Tauscher used to be a strong opponent of the US-India nuclear deal when she was in the Congress.

Some key points:

1. China is building its nuclear weaponry, despite all public claims otherwise (Any Indian move is in response)
2. British nuclear technicians, with IAEA badges, are already in TSP providing "nuclear security"
3. Brits are more open to Nawaz Sharif than the Americans
4. They knew early on that the Swat "campaign" was a joke and TSPA was using that to justify the "good jihadi-bad jihadi" theory
5. Brits will be okay with a coup in TSP

16. (S/NF) Leslie flagged the "inconvenient truth" that "China is building its nuclear arsenal." She evoked an arms race in the Pacific in light of India's nuclear program. Nonetheless, Leslie said she was optimistic regarding China's commitment to multilateral cooperation and she suggested that the U.S. and the UK should push China for progress "until they say 'stop it'." She noted that the Chinese had "pretty much" said a year ago that if the U.S. ratifies the CTBT, China would follow suit. Further, China has "dumped" Pakistan in the Conference on Disarmament (CD), which is a "good sign." Tauscher urged P5 action to get Pakistan to stop blocking progress in the CD on the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT).

¶17. (S/NF) The UK has deep concerns about the safety and LONDON 00002198 004 OF 005 security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons, and China could play a big role in stabilizing Pakistan, Leslie said. Pakistan has accepted nuclear safety help, but under the IAEA flag (albeit British technicians). The Pakistanis worry that the U.S. "will drop in and take their nukes," Leslie said.

¶18. (S/NF) Day expressed support for the development of a "cold war"-like relationship between India and Pakistan that would "introduce a degree of certainty" between the two countries in their dealings. He noted that recent intelligence indicates that Pakistan "is not going in a good direction." Pakistan sees the debate about Afghanistan in the U.S. and the UK as demonstrating that the allies lack the will to maintain their commitment there. The Pakistanis also believe that their recent successes against extremists in the Swat valley validate their belief that they can deal with their own internal problems without changing their approach toward India. Day asked if the U.S. would be "obliged" to cut relations with Pakistan if the military took over again; he said that the last time the military assumed power the UK had maintained military-to-military ties. Day also asked for the U.S. perspective on Nawaz Sharif, whom he described as "potentially less venal" than other Pakistani leaders.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 01 Dec 2010 00:22

Raja Ram wrote:
At the very least it is an embarassment for the USG. The claim is that wikeleaks have cables from 1966 onwards. That is a huge volume. Will make for some interesting reading if it ever comes out. My own feeling is that this will get capped in a few days and the publishing will stop. The USG has already started mobilising countries to call for the halt of further lifting of the veils.

Why is it from only 1966 and not before. Can anybody figure this out.
IMHO the cold war was really dangerous and USG needed allies to contain SU. So they worked on a policy to help and coopt many govts from 1966 and also to undermine many socialist countries with secret wars.
These info will reveal the extent of the USG policy from those days and how they created a web of alliance subordinating the national interest. This web is going to be broken now and the national interest of USG will become dominant.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 01 Dec 2010 00:26

ramana wrote:X-posted...
This is from the wiki leaks, courtesy Guardian newspaper

A very insigthfull cable. Some things which can be gleamed are
1) India is not mentioned anywhere. This is good. India should seek to stay away from the tangle that is US-PRC.

Once we get enough data we can have a thread exclusively on India realted wikileaks.

India is the big elephant and was the target of the secret wars during the cold war from 1966. There will not be much information on India before 911 since until then they had the secret war.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Dec 2010 01:03

http://www.rediff.com/news/report/kayan ... 101201.htm

Pakistan Army [ Images ] chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani [ Images ] has "learned the lesson" of his predecessor General Pervez Musharraf [ Images ] and prefers staying behind the scene while manipulating the government's decision-making on key issues, according to secret American documents released by WikiLeaks.

Jasmine Zerinini, head of the French government's interagency Afghanistan-Pakistan cell, told Richard Kessler, staff director of the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs, in January that Kayani was playing a behind the scenes role in issues like the war against terrorism and stirring up a controversy over linking civilian control of the military to increased American aid.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 01 Dec 2010 01:12

Our worst fears have come true..

US and UK diplomats feared Pakistan's nuclear material could fall into the hands of terrorists, the latest leaked classified US diplomatic cables reveal.

The documents, released by Wikileaks, warn that Pakistan is rapidly building its nuclear stockpile despite the country's growing instability.

One senior UK official said in one cable in 2009 that Britain had "deep concerns about the safety and security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons".

The US has condemned the disclosures.

However, it says international partnerships it had worked hard to build would withstand the challenge.

In one cable from among the latest leaks, US ambassador to Islamabad Anne Patterson told Washington: "Our major concern is not having an Islamic militant steal an entire weapon but rather the chance someone working in government of Pakistan facilities could gradually smuggle enough material out to eventually make a weapon."

Another secret cable relating to a US intelligence briefing in 2008 said: "Despite pending economic catastrophe, Pakistan is producing nuclear weapons at a faster rate than any other country in the world."

- BBC

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Dec 2010 01:58

Ambar, What worst fears? When they have limited numbers the only target is India. When they have more its others especially those who looked the other way or facilitated it thinking its only India. So why that distress?