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by Shanmukh
08 Sep 2019 01:00
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: J&K Union Territory-2019
Replies: 1994
Views: 247528

Re: J&K Union Territory-2019

There was a script for Kashmiri. It is called Sharda. Don't know if it is still there or extinct. Kashmiriyat was/is bs invented by Nehruvian Marxists. The history of Kashmir following arrival of Muslim rule has been mostly brutal with I believe 7 purges/massacres of Hindus. It's extinct. Even our ...
by Shanmukh
23 Aug 2019 06:43
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016
Replies: 925
Views: 157894

Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

My one liner are because you are basing all your assumptions/hypothesis that these legendary/mythical fighting contractors force (or I should say mercenary as appropriate term used by someone above) will be able to dominate and defeat tali bunnies and will have umrica have peaceful life in Afghanis...
by Shanmukh
18 Aug 2019 10:17
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: J&K Union Territory-2019
Replies: 1994
Views: 247528

Re: J&K Union Territory-2019

PORK folks chanting against Pakistan and asking them to get the hell out of Kashmir. Interesting video. Has there been a change of editors at the ToI? They normally would not cover such material, though [lack of] editorial oversight can sometimes cause such articles to be printed. If they ask us fo...
by Shanmukh
18 Aug 2019 05:44
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: J&K Union Territory-2019
Replies: 1994
Views: 247528

Re: J&K Union Territory-2019

PORK folks chanting against Pakistan and asking them to get the hell out of Kashmir. Interesting video. Has there been a change of editors at the ToI? They normally would not cover such material, though [lack of] editorial oversight can sometimes cause such articles to be printed. If they ask us for...
by Shanmukh
15 Aug 2019 20:32
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: J&K Union Territory-2019
Replies: 1994
Views: 247528

Re: J&K Union Territory-2019

https://swarajyamag.com/blogs/kashmir-debunking-myths-and-misconceptions This is the first of a 3 part series on Kashmir, which I have worked on along with the author Ms. Upadhyaya. She had assisted me on a policy paper on Pakistan and has just joined the Centre for Strategic and International stud...
by Shanmukh
14 Aug 2019 18:50
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: J&K Union Territory-2019
Replies: 1994
Views: 247528

Re: J&K Union Territory-2019

There is a petition started by the `International Commission of Human Rights' that has urged STOP UN HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR HUMAN RIGHTS TO DROP THE UN REPORT ON KASHMIR INSTEAD URGE THE UN HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL (UNHRC) FOR A ‘PANEL DISCUSSION’ ON THE REPORT URGENTLY . [Everything I have quoted is ver...
by Shanmukh
09 Aug 2019 07:28
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Articles 370 and 35A Repealed, J&K and Ladakh to be Separate Union Territories
Replies: 632
Views: 65507

Re: Articles 370 and 35A Repealed, J&K and Ladakh to be Separate Union Territories

Suraj wrote:Please post a screenshot of his constituency demographics and show everyone that . Chumps like him need to grovel online .


Done. https://twitter.com/maidros78/status/11 ... 5106154496
by Shanmukh
09 Aug 2019 06:46
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Articles 370 and 35A Repealed, J&K and Ladakh to be Separate Union Territories
Replies: 632
Views: 65507

Re: Articles 370 and 35A Repealed, J&K and Ladakh to be Separate Union Territories

saip wrote:
Shanmukh wrote:https://twitter.com/LiamByrneMP/status/1159082763389218816

Any idea who this cretin is? I get it that he is a British MP, but what is his takleef about Article 370? Or is this a case of empiritis?

His constituency has 42% peacefools. They are in majority.


Ahh - thanks.
by Shanmukh
09 Aug 2019 05:47
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Articles 370 and 35A Repealed, J&K and Ladakh to be Separate Union Territories
Replies: 632
Views: 65507

Re: Articles 370 and 35A Repealed, J&K and Ladakh to be Separate Union Territories

https://twitter.com/LiamByrneMP/status/ ... 3389218816

Any idea who this cretin is? I get it that he is a British MP, but what is his takleef about Article 370? Or is this a case of empiritis?
by Shanmukh
29 May 2019 21:11
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread
Replies: 595
Views: 57742

Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Over the past few weeks, I have been working on a project to estimate the number of Christians in Andhra. Here is my attempt with numbers. Welcome feedback. This is a maximalist interpretation of the Christian numbers in Andhra. Myself, I think it is about 2-3% lower than the numbers I have projecte...
by Shanmukh
26 May 2019 09:04
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread
Replies: 595
Views: 57742

Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

It also make interesting to see how Modi can satisfy whole North India voters if there is any global economic downturn. He was damn lucky there were no global economic problems during last 5 years. @ShyamSP-garu, Sorry for this lateral intervention, but I need to contact you over a project I am wor...
by Shanmukh
19 May 2019 20:57
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

India-Today - AxisMyIndia 12-14 to BJP Assam has only 14 seats and 3 are muslim majority. HBS himself is giving 9-11 to BJP. This India-Today poll is suspect. Only Dhubri is ~65-70% Muslim. Other two [Barpeta and Karimganj] are just marginally Muslim [50-55% Muslim]. If vote is getting split betwee...
by Shanmukh
17 May 2019 02:12
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

nachiket have you walked in her shoes? Ab Hua to hua. BJP has distanced itself from her statement. There were innumerable Congress secondary leaders (MSA, SAM, Doggy etc) making worse comments on NaMo and all RaGa has to say is they should apologize and he gets away. But buck stops with Modi for hi...
by Shanmukh
17 May 2019 01:57
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Long time ago Atri/Kaal described the different types of power enumerated in the Puranas Ken Boulding also wrote a book on power. The three Telugu leaders want to use their political power to protect their money power. They know whats coming in the pipeline wrt to their money power. They cannot sur...
by Shanmukh
12 May 2019 03:38
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

@Picklu-dada, I very much doubt that CPM will come second in any of the seats this time in the Kolkata region [the only possibilities are those of the south 24 Parganas region [seats like Mathurapur, Joynagar, Diamond Harbour, etc] where BJP barely exists. You are right that BJP won't win many in th...
by Shanmukh
12 May 2019 00:20
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

BTW, Axis had done an opinion poll that Turdesai did not allow to be telecasted (as he stopped the disastrous pappu's TV interview). Axis guys can only squirm and claim they are only doing exit (though he let out some findings). Turdesai must have forced Axis saying that since we have bank rolled y...
by Shanmukh
12 May 2019 00:18
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Btw I have been reading this gent since 1990s (was eagerly waiting for his take), he is on record of getting all elections right since 1977, ALL!! He also predicted some states, more remarkably the last one of UP, correct). At the Sangam, perhaps you get the microcosm of India. I believe the wire a...
by Shanmukh
12 May 2019 00:16
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Yes I know :) I posted during the 2014 thread that I expect the situation in KL to get worse for BJP before it gets better , not just because they need to improve party apparatus , but because their natural vote bloc is the left vote. Those LDF people are very religious and grounded and their suppo...
by Shanmukh
11 May 2019 23:56
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Pagalika has Twitter posts indicating astonishment at Red to Saffron change in WB, and Turdesai , who twitter says is sitting on Axis live exit poll data , is taking about return majority . I won’t quote their articles but it’s easy to find . BJP has taken most of the middle class vote in Bengal, w...
by Shanmukh
11 May 2019 22:04
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

BRF has been saying this since April and now the rest of media is catching up on this it seems. The Prime Minister who is known for coining quirky slogans, tossed another one at the rally, he said, "Chup chap kamal pe chhap" and Booth booth se TMC saaf." This means "vote for BJP...
by Shanmukh
07 May 2019 08:29
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

guys, are we in a echo chamber? 543, Chintamani, savyasachi..these guys are doing technical analysis, with some inputs (some in form of limited survey, not a true exit poll) - voting share by segments etc. Today's Chanakya guys input was significant that NDA (not BJP) is some short of 272. I am mor...
by Shanmukh
07 May 2019 07:41
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Shanmukh The CPM is disintegrating big time and almost all the CPM's urban middle class vote is moving to the BJP. The Bengali middle class has made the decisive move to the BJP. There is, definitely, an undercurrent in favour of the BJP. This is a very significant observation. Do you know why the ...
by Shanmukh
07 May 2019 04:41
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

vijayk wrote:I heard Telangana might get up to 5 seats for BJP ...

Lot of sources said TN has a surprise surprise for DMK too ...


Wow! Very interesting! Which 5 seats are people predicting for BJP in Telangana? I had given up hope of BJP winning even Secunderabad .....
by Shanmukh
07 May 2019 04:23
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Shanmukh How is it going in Bengal? Whats your take on the 5 Phases so far? Hard to guess, Ramana-garu. This is, realistically speaking, BJP's first big election in the state where they are in contest in nearly every seat. The CPM is disintegrating big time and almost all the CPM's urban middle cla...
by Shanmukh
07 May 2019 04:07
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Vote shares will not transfer perfectly. What I was trying to show was that between 2014 and 2017, the BJP lost popularity in UP. Some of that might have to do with demonetisation. If Yogi Adityanath has governed well, perhaps the BJP vote share in 2019 might go up. Personally, I think his language...
by Shanmukh
01 May 2019 19:04
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Internal Security Watch
Replies: 4408
Views: 474484

Re: Internal Security Watch

Not sure if this belongs here, but there are very serious security implications arising from this article by TrueIndology, who has narrated what has happened to him. If the mods think this belongs elsewhere, please do move it. Basically, a suspended Babu has enough power to get Twitter to suspend a ...
by Shanmukh
29 Apr 2019 23:03
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Rampur is near Muslim majority [49% Muslim]. All he needs is 1% of the votes to transfer to win. How many of them are Shia? How many Sunnis has Azam Khan pissed off by his high handed methods? Does he face a strong vote-katwa? How well funded is his opponent? All this population level analysis show...
by Shanmukh
29 Apr 2019 22:03
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Let me play Dilbu here and do a what-if scenario. This is based upon nightmare of 2004. What if after all the noise on SM and BRF, NDA barely is able to cross 272 with BJP left high and dry at 235-245. Do you think some of the partners would jump the ship and join some front with a pliable PM. Afte...
by Shanmukh
29 Apr 2019 21:56
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

What are you guys smoking.. Some of those numbers are hopelelessly optimistic and borne out of wishful thinking. The SP-BSP alliance which was formed on the back of Cambs Analytika profiling of the individual UP wards, seems to have transferred their votes cleanly . If this were the case, why is Az...
by Shanmukh
29 Apr 2019 21:49
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The lowest was Bommanahalli at 48% voting. After that, it was KR Puram at 50%. Neither can be said to be a middle class stronghold. In fact, middle class strongholds like Jayanagar, Padmanabhanagar and Basavanagudi saw 57-60% voting in Bengaluru. Even on the day of polling, the lowest actual turnou...
by Shanmukh
29 Apr 2019 20:36
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Ramana-garu, The turnout in Bengaluru has been more or less the same as last time. Last time the figures were Bengaluru North - 56.5% (2014), 54.66 (2019) Bengaluru Central - 55.6% (2014), 54.3 (2019) Bengaluru South - 55.7% (2014), 53.8% (2019). Except in Bengaluru South where the factional feudin...
by Shanmukh
29 Apr 2019 19:33
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The low turnout from the IT sector during the elections in bangalore has finally caught the eyes of some founders. They have now said that voting holidays are given very specifically for voting and those employees who return without the inked finger will be terminated immediately. Also, I have had ...
by Shanmukh
26 Apr 2019 01:16
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Not true. Anywhere north of KL, TN you are likely to get lynched if you do it openly. Even in rural TN, you would get lynched. Hindu villages can be and often are, very ruthless against cow killers. OTOH, in Jihadi and EJ areas of all states, it goes on quite openly. These areas, though part of Ind...
by Shanmukh
24 Apr 2019 01:56
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

From Dr PP. If true will send him money. He can get ghee shakkar Big shock today, Mallikarjun Kharge, the leader of the UPA in the parliament is trailing in Gulbarga. He was leading throughout the day because of mass deletion of Brahmin, Lingayat sounding names from voter list, yet we believe the c...
by Shanmukh
23 Apr 2019 02:16
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Does anyone else think something smells here? https://www.mynation.com/video/india-news/5-jds-workers-among-dead-in-sri-lanka-blasts-2-missing-pqcozw 5 JDS workers among dead in Sri Lanka blasts, 2 missing 22, Apr 2019, 12:34 PM IST Bengaluru: Seven JD(S) workers who travelled to Sri Lanka on a vac...
by Shanmukh
22 Apr 2019 23:49
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Even in your somewhat conservative analysis: -50 in existing strongholds and +30 in virgin territory: That Puts BJP at ~260 with NDA at comfortable 272+ position..? So is Panic called for? Panic? Where did I suggest panic? I just commented that the numbers of the satta bazaar that were published by...
by Shanmukh
22 Apr 2019 23:28
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

IndraD wrote:can this be atoned with gains in Bengal, Odisha, South India & NE?


They can gain around 25-30 seats from the four regions [this is the best case]. It is hard for them to make up more than that.
by Shanmukh
22 Apr 2019 23:26
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

In 2014, BJP won 25/25 in Rajasthan. This time it is likely to be 18-20. In 2014, BJP won 26/26 in Gujarat. This time it is likey to be 22-23. In 2014, BJP won 22/40 in Bihar. This time, they are contesting only 17, and are likely to win 14-15. In 2014, BJP won 23/48 in Maharashtra. This time, it i...
by Shanmukh
22 Apr 2019 21:12
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 512021

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Basically, it is going to come down to this. BJP will lose ~50 seats [at least] of the 282 seats they won last time. and This is assuming that the UP results go well for BJP and it does not lose >15 seats. seem to be mutually contradictory. you have given a break-up for possible seats in S, E &...

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