Search found 408 matches

by Arun.prabhu
30 Mar 2020 23:16
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

More like the Chinese test kits aren't worth crap. We aren't hearing about a lot of re-infections in Italy and elsewhere where they aren't using Chinese test kits. In fact, several countries have returned and refused Chinese kits which have failed quality control by failing to correctly identify any...
by Arun.prabhu
27 Mar 2020 22:16
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Well... Well... Well... 1. The Reproduction Rate of the virus is much higher than suspected. 2. The older models based on the older reproduction rate had predicted 400,000 dead in Italy on a certain date, but there were actually 8000 dead (and Italy are classifying everyone who dies and tests positi...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 23:08
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

A little bit of pragmatism isn't all that hard to ask for. Have you ever worked in the sweltering heat in a hazmat suit without any way to get rid of the heat your body generates? There are suits with captive ACs that run for maybe five or six hours, but they cost a ton and in an environment with a ...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 22:34
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Yep, but we have decided to go the lockdown route because the other idiots are following Chinese idiocy. Test everyone and isolate or let it run its course are the options. We're still testing only those who traveled and their close contacts. Not a recipe for a good outcome. We are going with the mo...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 22:17
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076323/third-coronavirus-cases-may-be-silent-carriers-classified A full third of the infected are asymptomatic. We don't have the test kits to extensively test and isolate the infected - both the symptomatic and the asymptomatic ones - either so as to...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 22:15
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

They cut up their political dissidents while they're alive and use the organs to support a medical tourism industry. They are barbarians. Traders can only import so long as the governments allow them to. Expect national governments that haven't sold out to china to come down hard on any trade relati...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 13:26
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

All the bioweaponry in the world cannot overcome China's horrible geographical location wrt to competition. And if America thinks that the Chinese released a bioweapon intentionally and helped it spread across the globe, they'll nuke china until it glows. And so will we and the Russians. But regardl...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 12:59
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Is that seven hundred for the entire population? I knew that I had assumed all things were equal between India and the other countries - but did not have the numbers to do more than a very bad rough calculation - and that the survival stability of the virus is going to be crap in india and that R0 w...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 11:11
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Now, you're arguing for argument's sake. If everything is equally valid, let's accept we don't know why the numbers went down and leave be. They shutdown the economy and asked people to pay for quaratine while allowing retailers with connections to price gouge. the factory line workers ran out of mo...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 11:09
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Under 60, the death rate is 0.2% if you're healthy. Over 70, it starts to get bad and over 80, you stand a 1 in 7 chance of dying. If your cardiovascular system is compromised by disease such as hypertension - basically your life style if crap - then your respiratory system isn't going to be much he...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 11:02
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

I'll show you all those farmers who have been committing suicide because of most of livelihood and rest my case on economic loss leads to loss of life front. As for farmers being infected in lower numbers being acceptable - which I the implication of your logic - but not those in cubicles, why are t...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 10:36
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

So two or three percent infected die off sparks a crisis that kills 60% of total population. call me unimpressed by your reasoning here. That 900million number is impossible. Fully 50% of the infections are so mild that they are asymptomatic. The disease kills the old and the sick. Even if all those...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 10:34
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

They shutdown the economy and asked people to pay for quaratine while allowing retailers with connections to price gouge. the factory line workers ran out of money having lost their livelihood and being prey upon by the party. sounds likely. Some of those are dead folks, others don’t have the money ...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 10:07
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Money is just one part of the chain. Production is another. Warehousing and transportation is another. Sales is another. All require people out on the streets. The money men and the IT guys can stay indoors. Everyone else has to be out working or a critical and irreplaceable link in the chain breaks...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 09:54
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Surprise. It’s on the AIIMS recommended drug list. And it’s poisonous if you take many doses at once or give a full dose to a child. Children aren’t at risk of death from this disease and so wouldn’t be given the drug anyways. As for the dosage used in malaria, you need 500gms cumulative of chloroqu...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 09:49
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Such innocence. Do you think that men with starving families won’t revolt or riot in a lockdown? People who put ethics and morality at the forefront of decision making have no job ruling a nation. Raja dharma is different than dharma. Mercy and ethics and morality doesn’t enter into the picture for ...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 09:44
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Because The sick and the first line responders need it and there is only so much inventory in the system. Give it a month for production to ramp up, assuming we aren’t sourcing the precursor from China, the enemy, of course. I read that Chloroquine shows some indication of fighting the virus. When I...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 09:36
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Nods. For that 200-300 million number, we’d have to two and a half times the mortality rate in Italy where they are triaging all the seniors to death so as to save the young and the middle aged. That 900million number is impossible. Fully 50% of the infections are so mild that they are asymptomatic....
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 09:33
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Oh and if you’re one of those folks buying up disposable or n95 masks, do all of us a favour and look up the proper procedure to wear them. Clean shave everyday because otherwise the seal between skin and mask isn’t made for the n95s.
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 09:28
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Some of those are dead folks, others don’t have the money to pay for their plans because of being stuck in door, others are probably presumptive organ donors awaiting to donate their organs in political prison camps for the glory of the party. The problem with the claim is that cell operators sweep ...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 09:22
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

That 900million number is impossible. Fully 50% of the infections are so mild that they are asymptomatic. The disease kills the old and the sick. Even if all those die, we’re looking at 200-300 million dead, worst case. AIIMS have already recommended a treatment regimen for use, not palliative by th...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 08:59
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

From my friend who manufactures surgical accessories in madurai: raw material cost of elastic bands and the material used for the filter has shot through the roof. Tel fold or more in the form of the latter. India does not produce the material and we used to import from China. China controls 80% of ...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 08:34
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Too bad then. The vaccine is not going to be approved within the next couple of months and Enough can’t be produced to vaccinate the whole population in that period. We are going to bring the economy to a standstill to save a few tens of thousands. They did a study a few years back. Shutting down ev...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 08:32
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

My apologies for being an easily offended boot. Forgive me. arun.prabhu, that was not directed at you. _________________________________________________ With any toxin, the mantra is - "dosage matters." Low doses, sufficiently below threshold level, are often even beneficial. Maybe that's ...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 08:31
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

And that is still 92% less than what China needs daily assuming they don’t dispose of the masks every six hours as recommended but use one per day. Which is impossible because you are supposed to throw away a mask if you sneeze or cough into it, if it becomes wet, if you touch it with your fingers o...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 08:27
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

They are going to get infected anyways. There is no immunity except by genetic quirk or if you have already had the disease. How are you going to save the people? By forcing them to stay within their houses? For how long? Farmers have to be out in the fields. Grocery shops have to be manned. Medicin...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 08:14
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Follow thine one advice. Was I replying to you? Individual incidents don't matter in statistics unless it's a huge outlier. They even out as they occur at random. The trends remain the same and so, statistically, you can predict how many would have died naturally and make a reasoned call with a stat...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 04:15
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

CDC Influenza like illness data indicates that ncovid-19 has been running amok amongst the US citizenry since at least mid-Jan. Forty or fifty thousand than the previous year more cases of undiagnosed flu like cases that did not test positive for A or B strains of the flu. 2018-19 data https://www.c...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 04:00
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Individual incidents don't matter in statistics unless it's a huge outlier. They even out as they occur at random. The trends remain the same and so, statistically, you can predict how many would have died naturally and make a reasoned call with a state degree of confidence that so many people likel...
by Arun.prabhu
22 Mar 2020 03:54
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306336

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

They did a study a few years back. Shutting down everything delays the virus two weeks and flattens the curve a bit at the cost of massive damage to the economy and no reduction in patient numbers and a possible reduction in deaths. Better to get it over with and get back to work. Shutting down the ...
by Arun.prabhu
14 Mar 2020 23:52
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Indian Army History Thread
Replies: 945
Views: 171201

Re: Indian Army History Thread

I concur. The thing to note is that a decision in the west would have made the holding onto east Pakistan untenable at best and ensured that the TSP divisions in the east dies on the vine. It would have been a lot more bloody for us, but who knows what would have happened with a victory in the west....
by Arun.prabhu
14 Mar 2020 23:43
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Indian Army History Thread
Replies: 945
Views: 171201

Re: Indian Army History Thread

X-posted from Indian Air Force thread as it was noted the discussion wasn’t germane there: Now, don’t shift the goal posts. All I did was state that IG made a strategic error in not prosecuting the main campaign in the west and should have either birfurcated the west or run over the western half. Yo...
by Arun.prabhu
14 Mar 2020 15:14
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 15 Dec 2016
Replies: 4083
Views: 941759

Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 15 Dec 2016

Manjgu, You have ignored shape of the battle space. You have ignored that it was the political leadership that decided we needed to take out E. Pakistan and you haven't given any evidence even though I asked for a cite that invasion of W. Pakistan was proposed to Manekshaw or the Staff in Mar/April/...
by Arun.prabhu
14 Mar 2020 10:32
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 15 Dec 2016
Replies: 4083
Views: 941759

Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 15 Dec 2016

What is this supposed to educate me on? That the TSP leadership were incompetent? The lead up to 1971 is enough to convince anyone of that. That our commanders in 1965 were timid and preferred set piece battles? But we're talking about 1971 here and we used pincer movements with combined arms - as c...
by Arun.prabhu
14 Mar 2020 05:40
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Very Long Range Precision (VLRP) Fire Systems Study
Replies: 5
Views: 2777

Re: Very Long Range Precision (VLRP) Fire Systems Study

Read my post again.

VKumar wrote:Replace shells with missiles and what you say is achievable
by Arun.prabhu
13 Mar 2020 21:47
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 15 Dec 2016
Replies: 4083
Views: 941759

Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 15 Dec 2016

Now, who's ignoring the shape of the battle space? We waited until November because that's when the Himalayan passes get closed because of snow. So, yes, China couldn't have intervened in any meaningful way before the decision was reached in the field. You're absolutely correct that you need 3 or be...
by Arun.prabhu
13 Mar 2020 20:31
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Indian Navy News & Discussion - 03 July 2018
Replies: 2625
Views: 610910

Re: Indian Navy News & Discussion - 03 July 2018

Activist judge. Probably.

Pratyush wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote:https://m.timesofindia.com/india/hc-stays-navys-elf-radar-project/articleshow/74597080.cms

HC stays Navy's ELF Radar Project



WTF is this??

What has given the judiciary the authority to intervene in the project?
by Arun.prabhu
13 Mar 2020 20:22
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 15 Dec 2016
Replies: 4083
Views: 941759

Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 15 Dec 2016

Add the troops and materiel we committed in the east to the west and then start the war on the same day but in the west. China couldn't have intervened and we'd have at least split W. Pakistan into two. Arun... the mistake IG did was not to close kashmir issue during negotiations. india did not have...
by Arun.prabhu
13 Mar 2020 19:13
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 15 Dec 2016
Replies: 4083
Views: 941759

Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 15 Dec 2016

Nope, putting the PAF out of the fight saved a lot of lives on the ground, but did not decide the war. We would have crushed E. Pakistan any ways. E. Pakistan did not have the industry, the local population was revolting, the Pakistani army did not have the numbers to ensure interior security while ...
by Arun.prabhu
13 Mar 2020 18:50
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 15 Dec 2016
Replies: 4083
Views: 941759

Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 15 Dec 2016

No need to go to jolly old England for how tactics and training and numbers and sheer guts matter. If my memory serves me right, we did it with MIG-21s and SU-30MKIs in one of our early exercises with the Americans at home. Tactics, Numbers et al play a huge role as well. Especially when you are unm...

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