Bharat Rakshak

Deans

sirji, Rather a smaller loss and a big jolt now, with course corrections implemented well in time, because it would be better than suffering a nasty election result in 2029 where facing political annihilation could be the possible result If no action is taken soon by the BJP to halt the political v...

Deans

With hindsight, why did Congress/UPA lose 2019 elections then? After all, 2024 & 2019 was fought on the same lines, 1Lakh wages, freebies, Modi is corrupt, Modi will end reservation. The opposition actually had a better-defined campaign in 2019. Yet,few takers back in 2019, so what has changed ...

Deans

%age votes polled by BJP are higher than in the previous election They aren't higher and even the overall figures are deceptive. BJP got 36.56 % this time, which was 0.8% lower than 2019. But in the states that mattered there was a significant drop: If you consider UP for e.g. : BJP got 41.37 % com...

Deans

last year June Ukr tried in wane at Robotenye for counter offensive and result is there for all to see. this year it looks repeat by Russia in Kharkiv and Sumy. how many kilometers they have ventured in last 3-4 weeks???? :roll: The objective of Ukraine's 2023 CO was to win the war by cutting the l...

Deans

The results suggest that the BJP had no realistic chance of getting a single seat in TN. Whatever be the reason, this should have been known to the state unit, particularly if Annamalai has a good connect with ground reality. The party took a view that it is better to go it alone and was therefore p...

Deans

HARD FACT 1: BJP RETAINED 208 SEATS OF THE 303 SEATS IT WON IN 2019 RETENTION RATE: 68% TAKEAWAY: No intense anti-Incumbency against Modi and BJP. HARD FACT 2: Just 6 lakh votes across 33 seats could have secured BJP a majority. Some of these, like Chandigarh, Hamirpur, Salempur, Dhaurahra, Dhule, ...

Deans

I think my wish list is doable: 1. Make fighting corruption the central plank of Modi 3.0. Set up special courts to try politicians as was agreed at the time of the Lokpal Bill. - A lot of the turncoats who joined BJP, lost. Revive their cases (Ajit Pawar for e.g) to show that no one is above the la...

Deans

2) Minorities - when voting - look at Religion First, then Caste. Rakesh ji, correct if I am wrong but there is no "Caste" in non-hindu religions. Caste is a big albatross around Hindus' neck. There is caste for minorities (I'm Christian) as we were all Hindu earlier and retain that caste...

Deans

Just thinking.. For next 6 months, Modi 3.0 is technically more powerful than Modi 2.0 due to control of more states and simple majority in Rajya Sabha. Maharashtra Assembly polls and Haryana polls are six months away so window starts now! There will be elections in Mah, Haryana, Delhi, Jharkhand a...

Deans

I believe there has to be a different approach to dealing with non BJP states in Modi 3.0 India is far too diverse for 1 party and one narrative to run in every state. The non BJP states see the BJP's presence in their state as an existentialist crisis, as they feel the BJP will ultimately gobble th...

Deans

BJP won 7 seats with difference of 200 votes. 23 seats with difference of 500 votes 49 seats with difference of 1000 votes 86 seats with difference of 2000 votes. This clearly shows the voter apathy for not going to the polls and casting their vote. There is a need to activate the BJP voters to go ...

Deans

Sorry deans Saar, But i think you have some info incomplete. SAD was with the BJP on the farm laws initially, Harsimrat Kaur Badal managed the agricultural ministry and even did press conference supporting the farm laws saying they will help. Only after farmer unions back in punjab protested did SA...

Deans

Deans Saar, RRR was/is a congi stooge. His actions and words indicate the same. i mean it was under his watch that Indian banks accumulated NPA of gigantic proportions. Where was his honesty then? did he do anything to address it until it was too big and too late. His recent interviews saying that ...

Deans

The NDA won 9 seats with a margin of less than 5000 votes. If these were won by INDIA - which was possible, if they had more confidence in
themselves, INDIA would have had more seats than BJP. N+N could then cross over to INDIA and its game over. This was a near thing.

Deans

BJP won 7 seats with difference of 200 votes. 23 seats with difference of 500 votes 49 seats with difference of 1000 votes 86 seats with difference of 2000 votes. U.P. This celebration of victory of Modi-Yogi will not happen again because by the next assembly elections of 2027, crores of Muslim you...

Deans

Swarajya has some good reports on why BJP did badly in WB & Mah.
You can access some free articles for non subscribers.

Deans

I don't think Modi/AS didn't know about ground realities. The fact that he had to resort to naming muslims (for quotas, bringing up MMS talk , inheritance tax etc) shows that he knew things weren't looking good and was trying to get the people on his side. Yes, there is a certain element of isolati...

Deans

Deansji, I think we should really try to break this down and do a detailed model. Of, course, we won't have all the information and resources, but I was thinking of listing hypothesis and trying to do a correlation. Best would be if we could get polling booth level data, and run it, else at least a...

Deans

^^For a moment I thought we could have an informed discussion. But this above post again indicates to me that people are still in the venting stage, there is not much of logical substance to help separate the grain from the chaff. Unfortunately, phaltu ki baatein (or "hai hai")....nothing...

Deans

"Deans" - ^^Interesting insights. What was the MNREGA and rural distress situation in Bihar and MP, where NDA did well ? Similar to Eastern UP or much better ? Providing the context would be more convincing. To me, the wipeout in Eastern UP is because of poor election management. Surround...

Deans

In the context of my previous post: There is no country where, post covid, the incumbent govt has been voted back with a higher majority. We had the worst fall in GDP in 2020-21 compared to the rest of the G-20 or our neighbors. That's possibly because when trying to find a balance between saving li...

Deans

Unless one understands the problem, a solution cannot be found. In the Core BJP areas (North and West) fewer % of Hindus voted for the BJP this time compared to 2019. The only exception was MP. This had nothing to do with Muslim consolidation (which was already very high), or lower turnout (affected...

Deans

Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Western UP have a common theme of rural economic distress as underlying circumstances. The pandemic and farm laws uncertainty made it worse. Add to this Northern Karnataka, where the BJP lost ALL 7 seats bordering Andhra. In Maharashtra losses in the Onion belt. Rural in...

Deans

A quick look at the data: The lower turnout had nothing to do with the result, as I posted earlier. For e.g. the fall in turnout was highest in Kerala. The BJP lost vote share in all its core states. Its less apparent since it gained share on Odisha, Andhra, TN and Kerala. There is a 8% vote share l...

Deans

As CM of Gujarat, he would rely on select bureaucrats to run the state and ignore his ministers. The same bureaucrats moved to the PMO. You can't run India the way Gujarat was run. Ministers were not given bureaucrats of their choice (reduces Neta-babu nexus but signifies low trust) and even the ha...

Deans

Deans ji, In the umpteen interviews by Dr SJ, Modi's style of functioning he described was just the opposite in cabinet meetings. He actively asks for feedback and is open to changing his mind, but sets ambitious goals and vision. Pushes everyone hard, but himself harder. Unless you have some first...

Deans

I don't understand that PM was arrogant did not consult cabinet etc ... that guy was CM for a decade and had unparallel access at ground level, he is likely to know a few things more and ambitious to push them through. Did the bureaucracy he pushed too hard, party members with hurt egos and middle ...

Deans

Deans gaaru, that's not what I am trying to say. M population is around 25% in strategic places.They don't have to be 25% in every BJP strongholds. They can position at each strategic tight spots and get more dividends. Even now in UP, they didn't do much damage in strong areas. They focused mostly...

Deans

I am not sure if we have latest census numbers but do we have more M and cryptos than we think ? We know that tap from WB if not plugged is going to cause even more dislocations at some points. Our enemies surely can do a much much better professional job of regime change than we give them credit f...

Deans

Deansji We are not talking about the Elephant in the room :eek: Where is RSS?? The karyakartas have been sidelined Nagpur has had enough of both NaMo and AS They feel they have been shortshifted even though pappu and others kept blaming them for all the ills. Is this their way of saying thank you t...

Deans

If Modiji won same 240 seats in 2014, none would've said BJP performed bad. 270+ governments were Modi+Shah creation. Even Congis at the peak of UPA era, got around 204 seats. We are over-bashing BJP too much here. Most Indian voters are not that much into strategic benefits, GDP and stuff. They ca...

Deans

Elusive M vote bank is the reason. We are always fighting for 70% of votes, while the congi+ fully enjoys the 30% votes. They just need to fool another 10% to safely win any seat. It's that easy. And BJP knew about it too. But this time, they ignored it for some reason. The mastermind behind this c...

Deans

2014 : 282 seats with 31% vote share 2019 : 303 seats with 37% vote share 2024 : ~245 seats with 37.5% vote share It comes down to conversion rate, BJP has usually been exceptional at it but has horribly underperformed here, Almost all tight races going to SP/TMC and in some cases even to INC I had...

Deans

I think they, like many right wing YT channels, created a echo chamber where they mostly talk among themselves and repeat, validate, support each others data. Opposing ideas, pointers, opinions are not entertained. Maybe it influenced them not to look at some ground level realities. It works the ot...

Deans

I must say the Buck stops at PMO/MAD for the debacle. I'm glad you said it Sir, I was hesitant to. If the BJP was a company, Modi and Shah would have been sacked. I agree with your points and highlighted what could have been done on farm laws. As far as youth is concerned: There are no young leader...

Deans

I think modi won't be able to push through hard core reforms like ucc or labor reforms . While we ll likely have modi for the next 5 years, for the first time in a decade he'll be bogged down by coalition politics. Jaichands and snakes in ganges is the recurrent theme for this election cycle. It is...

Deans

Yup its States where Voting % is down which has caused some concerns, heat wave combined with complacency, but wow the Muslim population of India has shown real determination while the general population has been very laid back. I'm a data guy, so expect to see a lot of posts like this: The overall...

Deans

While we don't have the final result yet, the trend so far is my biggest shock - in decades of following elections. It's little comfort for me that almost all of us here and indeed all the experts and pollsters (except YY) got it spectacularly wrong. After the fact we are all experts with reasons wh...

Deans

EVMs being smartly gamed by whites (in a way not to arouse the needle of suspicion). From my limited understanding of how EVMs work. And here is an FAQ on EVMs . 1. They are stand alone devices, with the actual counting logic stored in an E-PROM. 2. Each EVM can hold only 2000 votes. After which an...

Deans

very troubling signs for BJP in 18-25 and 25-35 age category. BJP is barely ahead or even https://i.imgur.com/HquKkeg.png I have gone through the raw data of the Axis poll. These numbers are deceptive. It is really NDA (49% of vote) vs INDIA (39%). Axis has included TMC in INDIA. What he is calling...

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