Search found 1031 matches

by Deans
30 Mar 2020 21:56
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

An intresting way of of looking at the data. I feel it makes more sence. charts the new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the past week vs. the total confirmed cases to date. When plotted in this way, exponential growth is represented as a straight line that slopes upwards. Notice that almost all coun...
by Deans
29 Mar 2020 22:05
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Does it makes sense ?????? I don't think it makes sense, because there is time lag if approx 14 days from infection of person to that person showing up as infected person in govt. records......... Just 4-7 days to onset of initial symptoms that include fever and cough, per people on the field in UK...
by Deans
29 Mar 2020 16:03
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Kashmir valley has the supposedly ideal temperatures for spread of the Wuhan Virus. How come we are not seeing similar infections as those in the western cold countries? I think the several months of lock down and not allowing foreigners into the valley is a major factor in saving the valley people...
by Deans
28 Mar 2020 20:02
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

So France testing to positive rate is 20 %. As on 27th, india has tested approx 28000 samples and have approx 700 positives. So that is 2.5%. I am wondering why? We are actually testing high risk group like direct contacts. This again might be due to our general resilience towards flu like viruses....
by Deans
28 Mar 2020 19:54
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Another point, are our migrant workers that poor that they don't have any savings to survive for couple of weeks? I find it difficult to believe. 90% of Indian households have less than Rs 10,000 in cash or liquid assets (excluding gold ornaments). An individual worker will have less. That's the re...
by Deans
28 Mar 2020 10:09
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3849
Views: 421485

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

There seems to be an endless supply of sold out traitors from India who write crap about India abroad. This Vidya Krishnan lady writing on India's Coronavirus response in the Atlantic starts out with CAA and "pogrom" against Muzlims. Absolutely trashy one sided criticism filled with half-...
by Deans
26 Mar 2020 21:54
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Sirs, I have no data but there was a sudden death in our locality. All symptoms and past history medical/travel is suggestive of what was the reason. Local doctor and the one who declared the demise is saying the same thing. Government contacted, not a word on it and certainly the number didn't bum...
by Deans
26 Mar 2020 21:38
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Just an insight on how Germany is managing to keep its fatality rate low. Detection and Isolation is the key. https://www.thelocal.de/20200326/germany-ramps-up-coronavirus-tests-to-500000-a-week On Wall Street, the Krauts are known as the most "Asian" of the Europeans. Their mercantile, e...
by Deans
26 Mar 2020 17:54
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

I am no expert but a recent event nearby makes me think that: 1. The numbers being reported do not reflect reality. Not fudging the numbers but general callousness of government apparatus towards public in general is causing the low confirmed numbers. 2. Few prospective cases are being tested likel...
by Deans
26 Mar 2020 16:04
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

India trends according to John hopkins India - dont know what to make of ro 03/19 - 244 03/20 - 330 03/21 - 396 03/22 - 499 03/23 - 536 03/24 - 657 --> we are entering a very critical phase, fingers crossed USA - starting from the time when the number was around 244 03/05 - 262 03/06 - 402 03/07 - ...
by Deans
26 Mar 2020 09:49
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

No country so far has tested even 1% of its population. Not Italy (High no of cases, very advanced medical system), Not Switzerland (Italy with a low population), Not SoKo and the GCC countries which have high cases, a small population and a policy of broadening the testing criteria. Testing capaci...
by Deans
25 Mar 2020 22:11
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

No country so far has tested even 1% of its population. Not Italy (High no of cases, very advanced medical system), Not Switzerland (Italy with a low population), Not SoKo and the GCC countries which have high cases, a small population and a policy of broadening the testing criteria. Testing capacit...
by Deans
25 Mar 2020 21:56
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

My gut feeling is that with these periodic reviews, they would ease out curfew in certain areas step by step. And ultimately only the few areas which really have more patients would be kept under curfew. Unfortunately, India is not testing much. Without testing, it is impossible to know where the p...
by Deans
25 Mar 2020 18:11
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

We screened 15.2 lac passengers from abroad (not sure if all initially had a fever test). Though we feel its `a lot of returnees', positive cases. as a percentage of 1.5 million, is not many. I don't believe any other country screened that many pax, in the initial stages of infections, when cases w...
by Deans
25 Mar 2020 16:01
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Lot of returnees from Dubai are showing up positive. A case whom came to India on 18th, shows symptoms on 23. 5 days. I now feel the infection is happening in the Dubai airport. We screened 15.2 lac passengers from abroad (not sure if all initially had a fever test). Though we feel its `a lot of re...
by Deans
25 Mar 2020 14:50
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

ICMR has a twice daily count of the number of tests done. They appear to have ramped up to 2000 tests/day as of yesterday. The number turning positive is about 2.5%, which I believe is very positive. Since the criteria for testing, are people with symptoms & those in close contact with positive ...
by Deans
25 Mar 2020 11:31
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3849
Views: 421485

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

I see one glaring flaw in this lock down, why keep the stock market open, so rich and FII can short the market, I think this very unfair when the Retail investor does not have access to Business cash collections he is allowing the rich and FII mint money by shorting the market. If the country is in...
by Deans
25 Mar 2020 10:57
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

From the nation's pov, what is the end game then? If there is no cure or vaccine forthcoming in the next few months, social distancing will only delay the inevitable. It is not practical to extend national curfew beyond a few weeks at best. What happens after it is lifted ? COVID goes on another me...
by Deans
25 Mar 2020 10:44
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

... Given the number calculating R0 is simple. Let us say that after 5 days the number of positive cases identified is 728. Then R0 will be 728-600=128 and 5th root of 128 will be 2.6. That is, just take the number and do the day'th root of that number (minus initial 500). So if the number of days ...
by Deans
25 Mar 2020 10:02
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Genius. Just plain genius. I didn't think of this at all. Depends on wash sale rules. In the US the rule prevents selling at a loss and buying back 'substantially the same security' within the next 30 days and reporting that loss for tax purposes. However, given the circumstances, the US may suspen...
by Deans
24 Mar 2020 23:29
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The 21 day lock-down is the only way to beat Corona and I am cautiously optimistic we will pull this off. If we do, we will be the only major country relatively unaffected by the virus - I'm not sure I posted earlier, but my pessimistic scenario for India is around 700 deaths, which will be way bett...
by Deans
24 Mar 2020 22:45
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

If you close the stock market you spook the FII so that they won't return for a while, and further roil the markets. Just ignore the market for a while. I am 38% down on my stock market investments and prepping myself for it to go down by a further 20-30% till things stabilize. Everyday life is > s...
by Deans
23 Mar 2020 22:01
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

News of more and more young fit and well population falling severely ill with covid19! From 35 to 47 year old are being ventilated in ITU with no precondition. Virus is unpredictable. https://i.ibb.co/ZYbZ5yg/Whats-App-Image-2020-03-22-at-14-26-03.jpg https://i.ibb.co/DzJG15d/Whats-App-Image-2020-0...
by Deans
22 Mar 2020 16:46
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

No..the current policy is anybody in ICU will be checked for covid19. A recent 38 yr old in Bihar who died of kidney issues was also tested and confirmed to have Covid19 thought he wasn't very symptomatic. He is now added to Covid19 death counts. The access of elderly to hospitals differ from state...
by Deans
22 Mar 2020 16:05
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

There are many Indians over she 50 with pre existing health conditions and coupled with lack of ventilators, we should anticipate a higher than 1% death rate. Reducing the spread is the key. If hospitals are overwhelmed, the thousands of non corona ICU cases would have to go untreated multiplying t...
by Deans
22 Mar 2020 14:14
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

If the age distribution of the Italian population was the same as India, their deaths would have been over 70% less ! 99% of the Italian dead had a serious pre-existing health condition. Half of them multiple & serious conditions. Quite possibly in India, their deaths would be attributed to othe...
by Deans
22 Mar 2020 13:51
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Is that seven hundred for the entire population? I knew that I had assumed all things were equal between India and the other countries - but did not have the numbers to do more than a very bad rough calculation - and that the survival stability of the virus is going to be crap in india and that R0 ...
by Deans
22 Mar 2020 12:17
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The fatality rate for the 20-49 age group (worldwide) is 0.32 % Assuming half of all cases are too mild to be reported, the fatality rate is 0.16% Excluding smokers, it would be approx 0.14 % Data on deaths show that in warmer and/or more humid countries, the death rate is lower. There is also one s...
by Deans
22 Mar 2020 11:33
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

There are some things we have to do now, can we suggest these (whatever makes sense) to PMO / Health Ministry ? All are immediately implementable and cost relatively little. 1. Use every foreign returned medical college graduate (awaiting a license to practice in India) should be called for duty and...
by Deans
22 Mar 2020 11:01
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

I take your point DeanSji, and agree. But if it comes down to a choice between millions dead (herd immunity) and a great loss of economic capital, I think the choice should be starkly clear. I think the entire world sees these as the 2 choices available and has made the decision, even those stiff u...
by Deans
22 Mar 2020 10:33
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

This is the time when we start projecting our fears and see our biases and pet peeves in tje data. Can you be a bit more specific sir? Where do you see these biases? Let's thrash these out as far as possible I have been optimistic that we will get through this and that India will emerge stronger, r...
by Deans
21 Mar 2020 18:57
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

A google search indicates India has 70,000 ICU beds. Assuming 2/3rd of them have ventilators , we have 50,000 ventilators for 1.3 billion people. some others UK 4500 Germany 20,000 Italy 3500 USA 135000 (they ventilated these many patients during last pandemic) Wrong assumption. I am sure it is way...
by Deans
21 Mar 2020 18:46
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The trains are still running and it was time to shut them down two weeks before. This will be a big disaster I think just because the govt wanted to save some tax money. Its not that they wanted to save tax money. (the railways are not profitable). People travel for a reason. Stopping the railways ...
by Deans
21 Mar 2020 09:51
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

My mistake. I guess, the only reassuring thing for us is being in a hot weather zone. You get infected but don't die. I think critics are overdoing the `Not testing enough' thing. No one has tested more than SoKo and their death rate is still over 1% Show me 1 scientific paper supporting your warm ...
by Deans
20 Mar 2020 22:09
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Iran with fairly non existent testing (unless you have an advanced condition) and poor medical care has a fatality rate of under 1% (I doubt they are under-reporting because they need aid and an end to sanctions). US currently at 1.5% but I expect will go down once more are tested. Iran has a CFR o...
by Deans
20 Mar 2020 21:54
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The fatality rate in SoKo, which has done the most extensive testing is 1.1% In Northern Europe, (Germany, Austria, Scandanavia) which also tests aggressively, the fatality rate is 0.3-0.5% A larger proportion of younger people are infected there. Iran with fairly non existent testing (unless you ha...
by Deans
20 Mar 2020 19:24
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

I was thinking Deans was being harsh, but he was right - these people are completely reckless, shameless and out-of-control. And the entire "test" from a high risk place setup was broken to begin with. If you have a Schengen visa you can roam around Europe. So while our folks were scrutin...
by Deans
19 Mar 2020 20:14
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4151
Views: 306384

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

#BREAKING DCP Central Delhi confirms to colleague @Nitisha_Kashyap that SIX people suspected of #COVID19 have fled from Delhi's LNJP hospital. This kind of behaviour is alarming to say the least #CoronaVirusInIndia What the hell wrong with these folks? Do they think they will die if they stay put i...

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