Bharat Rakshak

ramdas

Haridasji,

1) Why the silence on MIRvs being tested with the K-4 if it has indeed been tested with MIRVs and other powers know of it ?

2) Has some way been found to render the corrected 1998 TN credible without testing? Only that would allow for many petals on the K-4.

ramdas

They do impose a lot of controls and tests, but clearly, they need to do far more at the supplier end. Same issue with Akash but it was fixed thereafter. Certainly needed. It may also help to reduce the variety in the arsenal. Something like A-1 for TSP and A-5 (incl. a MIRVed variant) for PRC each...

ramdas

No problem with the test.

How can you say that ? It is good that they are testing, but defects cropping up at this stage in the A-3 are worrying, if true (likely, since Hemant Rout is usually reliable).

ramdas

https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/odisha/2019/dec/01/nuclear-capable-agni-iii-missile-fails-in-maiden-night-trial-2069737.html The A-3 trial was unfortunately unsuccessful. Appears to have involved a manufactirung defect. Hope we do not suffer from OFB like quality control in such a crucial t...

ramdas

Was the recent Agni III test successful? A PTI report says that the trajectory is being monitored and the result is awaited....

ramdas

@Dinesha: Looks like speculation by people like Vipin Narang and speculation by journalists like Manu Pubby are feeding off one another. This time the NOTAM clearly indicated a land based test. Underwater missile tests are generally off Vizag. I do'nt know why we do'nt announce and publish pictures ...

ramdas

@Dinesha: I think the speculation about the Nov 8 K-4 test being postponed due to the cyclone was fuelled on twitter by the likes of Vipin Narang and other NPAs. The fact that no new NOTAM for a SLBM test was issued within days (it is reasonable to expect a new window to be determined if a test was ...

ramdas

The above warning also cannot be for K4 because this scheduled to be conducted at night time between 6:30pm and 9:30pm. During these times 6:30pm is quite dark in Eastern India. This and Hemant Rout's confirmation go to show that Manu Pubby is not the most reliable when it comes to reporting on mis...

ramdas

Stationing SSLVs at a fixed strategic location makes more sense because it would make mating with a payload easier. In any case, it would be prudent to keep some SSLV units at standby (silo?) and mated with imaging, and communication+navigation satellites or even co-orbital anti-satellite satellite...

ramdas

https://www.jansatta.com/blog/k-4-missile-nuclear-warhead-capability-within-sea/1219010/

This news item seems to indicate that the K-4 was indeed successfully tested on Nov 8. Do not know how reliable it is.

ramdas

One very interesting that was confirmed was that SSLV was designed to be launched from a mobile platform. So, it is a strategic launcher as well. By strategic launcher are you referring to dual use as a long range BM ? But a 34 m length seems to make it unwieldy either as a long range BM or a mobil...

ramdas

Do we have the ability as of now to produce high strength carbon fibres (T-700/T-800/T-1000) in quantity? That would be required if we needed to make efficient solid motors with high chamber pressure. Saurav Jha once tweeted that the reason for sticking to steel motor casings for first stages was la...

ramdas

The cyclone passed some 200 km east of Vizag. Areas close to Vizag do not seem to have had high winds/rain on Nov. 8. In any case, no news of any K-4 test has come soon after that test (except maybe for the first time in 2014). The only other news of a K-4 test was in 2016, when Hemant Rout wrote so...

ramdas

Do'nt know whether they will be able to carry out the K-4 test given the cyclone that is building up in the bay of bengal...Hope the test does not get delayed too much.

ramdas

The reason I asked is that I have often seen NAVAREAS issued 3-5 days before tests. Should'nt shipping have a harder time clearing out of an area than flights, that too when these are standard areas for which we have issued warnings in the past ?

ramdas

Is it a good idea to be discussing these NOTAMs on a public forum? OTOH, I do'nt know why GoI does not release them much later, say, 3 days or so before the actual test.

ramdas

@gaurav.p: 1) Neither nukes nor this are for compellence. They are for deterrence. Are you also saying that our going nuclear was the wrong decision ? TSP was anyway going to go nuclear. What if they were the only power in the subcontinent with nukes ? 2) It serves our purpose to accelerate the stra...

ramdas

@tsarkar:

What about the possibility of a shootdown with no deaths? After all, two Paki pilots are supposed to have bailed out. What if they both survived ? Then covering up the F-16 shootdown by clearing the wreckage is easy for the Pakis.

ramdas

Haridas wrote:Even the earliest design was three large RVs (similar to A2 RV in wt & size). From discussions with those who were involved & mattered.

For A-5 ? Or for A-3 ?

ramdas

@SSridhar: The K-4 test in 2010 was a pop-up test. Not a full flight test. Regarding the award for K-4 development, the clincher would be if no award for A-5 development has been given out until now. The fact that the head of the K-4 team is now DG Missiles ain DRDO suggests that the K-4 developmen...

ramdas

News reports only point out 3 K4 tests (March 2014 and 2 in March-April 2016 to a shorter 700 km range). A news report from Dec. 2017 stated that a 4th K4 test that was to happen was a no launch owing to some electrical issues (we can never know if this is true or false). There are no other reports ...

ramdas

This interview indeed seems to indirectly confirm that the K-4 is operational. The satellite images put up by @Prasannasimha (from DFILITE on twitter) also seem to show one missile at the centre of each launch tube (unlike the 3 that would be there if it was the K-15). So, the K-4 may well be operat...

ramdas

Depends on what `cap' means. From the article it sounded as though it meant being satisfied with a handful of single warhead A-5's and K-4's. That sort of minimal deterrent will rapidly lose credibility once PRC deploys ABMs (and one has to take into account PRC's ability to mass produce such things...

ramdas

Apparently an MRIS with multi object tracking capability is required for MIRV testing. At least that is what France uses a similar ship for. Given that ISRO made a multi object tracking radar only recently, lack of something like this may have also been a reason why we havent tested MIRV payloads so...

ramdas

@ramana: the MM III has a ~300kt yield warhead. Leave that aside. DF-41 ~150kt x 10. That is not the point. Point is that even though the operational config. has 10 MIRV, 2 MIRV tests were conducted for experimental purposes (probably to prove a basic PBV/RVs combination before going in for tests of...

ramdas

It is also important to demonstrate Mirv payloads to prove the Pbv and rvs. Waiting to do this until a physics package is tested would cause further delays

ramdas

The minuteman iii used a 3 MIRV payload. The Df-41 was initially tested some yrs ago with 2 mirvs. This was of course, not the operational configuration: 6-10 mirvs. Paki ababeel seems to have 3 warheads. Do they have a miniaturized high yield physics package?

ramdas

@haridas: what is stopping the demonstration of MIRV tech by DRDO? Political constraints even under Namo or is there still some tech. development to be done before it is ready?

ramdas

@ramana: Not all A4 tests came with picture releases. Also, Lt. Gen. V. K. Saxena wrote in his article about the Agni series that the purpose of developing A4 after A3 was MIRV tech. It sounded like total nonsense when Iread it that time. Now I am not so sure...Ultimately, we can at best speculate.

ramdas

@Ramana: I too saw suggestions from Nitin Gokhale that the recent A-5 test was more than normal (some twitterati hint at MIRV). The current A5 seems to have too narrow a third stage to be MIRV capable (unless they have decided to put some completely untested highly miniaturized warheads on it). MaRV...

ramdas

@haridas: can you explicitly spell out the cost of a new nuclear test? What sanctions can we expect in this eventuality ? As far as I can see it, we only stand to benefit by breaking this straitjacket. Sanctions have no meaning when they are sought to be used to prevent us from securing core nationa...

ramdas

@haridas: Why is there no way to break out of the `self imposed moratorium' ? All we lose is the nuclear deal. Russia will continue supplying us nuclear plants, given that it itself is under sanctions. Full scale sanctioning of such a large economy is too disruptive for the world at large. Didnt hap...

ramdas

@Karthik S: even the item about the Agni-5 ejection test in the DRDO newsletter talks of Agni-5 and `65 ton canisterized missile'. Given that Agni-5 is 50 tons in mass, the 65 tons can only refer to mass including the canister. Here, the item is a rotation-cum-resting fixture with a payload of 70 to...

ramdas

So the 70T payload includes canister. Probably for A-5 or a variant of that system.

ramdas

@Indranil: The 3.2m appears to be the width of the platform. That is reasonable if it is a trailer. The canister diameter will be much less than that. I am guessing 2-2.5m, going by the image given. Indeed, if the payload within the canister is upto 70T, that appears to be for a MIRVed missile. Ques...

ramdas

@Indranil: Does the 70 ton payload of the rotation cum resting fixture mean payload contained inside the canister or payload including the mass of the canister ? If the second option is correct, this may just be for the A-5 canister (or for a marginally heavier A-5 variant that is approx. 55 tons or...

ramdas

A lot of misinformation could be doing the rounds to subvert our relation with Russia and push us into a US alliance. The problem with a US alliance is the constraints it would put on our nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Plus other political baggage such as ``human rights", ``free hand t...

ramdas

It could be that the stratfor people are ``trolling". However, a careful assessment of TSP's nuclear buildup is required. If strategic nuclear superiority erodes on our side, the massive retaliation doctrine indeed loses credibility and space opens for use by TSP of tactical nuclear weapons. Th...

ramdas

Now these journos from The Hindu says INS Arihant is yet to sail. Manu Pubby said otherwise. Who is to be believed? The riot act should be read out to these anti-nationals: no baseless reporting on such a sensitive topic. Any violation should lead to serious consequences: police custody, etc. at the...

ramdas

How are we to be sure that what Manu Pubby wrote on the K-4 test is correct ? GoI has kept this program under wraps, with no announcement ever of any test (though NOTAMS for this come and go). Plus The Print is Shekhar Gupta's fiefdom: everybody knows what agenda he has. In early 2017 there were exp...

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