Bharat Rakshak

ramdas

Depends on what `cap' means. From the article it sounded as though it meant being satisfied with a handful of single warhead A-5's and K-4's. That sort of minimal deterrent will rapidly lose credibility once PRC deploys ABMs (and one has to take into account PRC's ability to mass produce such things...

ramdas

Apparently an MRIS with multi object tracking capability is required for MIRV testing. At least that is what France uses a similar ship for. Given that ISRO made a multi object tracking radar only recently, lack of something like this may have also been a reason why we havent tested MIRV payloads so...

ramdas

@ramana: the MM III has a ~300kt yield warhead. Leave that aside. DF-41 ~150kt x 10. That is not the point. Point is that even though the operational config. has 10 MIRV, 2 MIRV tests were conducted for experimental purposes (probably to prove a basic PBV/RVs combination before going in for tests of...

ramdas

It is also important to demonstrate Mirv payloads to prove the Pbv and rvs. Waiting to do this until a physics package is tested would cause further delays

ramdas

The minuteman iii used a 3 MIRV payload. The Df-41 was initially tested some yrs ago with 2 mirvs. This was of course, not the operational configuration: 6-10 mirvs. Paki ababeel seems to have 3 warheads. Do they have a miniaturized high yield physics package?

ramdas

@haridas: what is stopping the demonstration of MIRV tech by DRDO? Political constraints even under Namo or is there still some tech. development to be done before it is ready?

ramdas

@ramana: Not all A4 tests came with picture releases. Also, Lt. Gen. V. K. Saxena wrote in his article about the Agni series that the purpose of developing A4 after A3 was MIRV tech. It sounded like total nonsense when Iread it that time. Now I am not so sure...Ultimately, we can at best speculate.

ramdas

@Ramana: I too saw suggestions from Nitin Gokhale that the recent A-5 test was more than normal (some twitterati hint at MIRV). The current A5 seems to have too narrow a third stage to be MIRV capable (unless they have decided to put some completely untested highly miniaturized warheads on it). MaRV...

ramdas

@haridas: can you explicitly spell out the cost of a new nuclear test? What sanctions can we expect in this eventuality ? As far as I can see it, we only stand to benefit by breaking this straitjacket. Sanctions have no meaning when they are sought to be used to prevent us from securing core nationa...

ramdas

@haridas: Why is there no way to break out of the `self imposed moratorium' ? All we lose is the nuclear deal. Russia will continue supplying us nuclear plants, given that it itself is under sanctions. Full scale sanctioning of such a large economy is too disruptive for the world at large. Didnt hap...

ramdas

@Karthik S: even the item about the Agni-5 ejection test in the DRDO newsletter talks of Agni-5 and `65 ton canisterized missile'. Given that Agni-5 is 50 tons in mass, the 65 tons can only refer to mass including the canister. Here, the item is a rotation-cum-resting fixture with a payload of 70 to...

ramdas

So the 70T payload includes canister. Probably for A-5 or a variant of that system.

ramdas

@Indranil: The 3.2m appears to be the width of the platform. That is reasonable if it is a trailer. The canister diameter will be much less than that. I am guessing 2-2.5m, going by the image given. Indeed, if the payload within the canister is upto 70T, that appears to be for a MIRVed missile. Ques...

ramdas

@Indranil: Does the 70 ton payload of the rotation cum resting fixture mean payload contained inside the canister or payload including the mass of the canister ? If the second option is correct, this may just be for the A-5 canister (or for a marginally heavier A-5 variant that is approx. 55 tons or...

ramdas

A lot of misinformation could be doing the rounds to subvert our relation with Russia and push us into a US alliance. The problem with a US alliance is the constraints it would put on our nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Plus other political baggage such as ``human rights", ``free hand t...

ramdas

It could be that the stratfor people are ``trolling". However, a careful assessment of TSP's nuclear buildup is required. If strategic nuclear superiority erodes on our side, the massive retaliation doctrine indeed loses credibility and space opens for use by TSP of tactical nuclear weapons. Th...

ramdas

Now these journos from The Hindu says INS Arihant is yet to sail. Manu Pubby said otherwise. Who is to be believed? The riot act should be read out to these anti-nationals: no baseless reporting on such a sensitive topic. Any violation should lead to serious consequences: police custody, etc. at the...

ramdas

How are we to be sure that what Manu Pubby wrote on the K-4 test is correct ? GoI has kept this program under wraps, with no announcement ever of any test (though NOTAMS for this come and go). Plus The Print is Shekhar Gupta's fiefdom: everybody knows what agenda he has. In early 2017 there were exp...

ramdas

@haridas: the sslv payload is 500-700 kg to 700 km SSO. I believe the stated payload is from SHAR. If so, the capability of this LV is not that far behind the Minotaur IV. Note that the Minotaur IV has a 1000 kg payload to 700 km SSO from sites where there is no requirement for a dog leg maneuver. F...

ramdas

@haridas: is'nt the conical motor in A-5 inherently optimum for a single warhead payload and inefficient for MIRV payloads ?

ramdas

Haridasji, 1) Understood. The large single warhead payloads appear to be something not tested in 1998 (maybe a smaller version of these was tested). Boosted fission weapons would expend fissile material unless they are sloika type... 2) Ultimately what is required is the ability to destroy every PRC...

ramdas

@haridas: I would agree that A-5 was never meant to be MIRV. Are you saying that India would never develop MIRV when even TSP is doing the same ? Deterrence would never be credible down the line without MIRV (even if it is today). If only 25 kt fission weapons are to be used, why the large 1500 kg p...

ramdas

@K^2: the NAVAREA warning for Jan 19 was removed after the A-5 test. So, nothing else was tested. Just a canisterized A5 with a single warhead.

ramdas

@K^2: how do you know that this A5 test is an MIRVed test ? You were saying that it would be a K5 rather than A5 test. Any MIRVed test would have some people with ''inside sources" writing about it sooner or later, like such people did for recent PRC MIRV tests.

ramdas

why is the media being allowed to leak all sorts of sensitive information that helps our adversaries ? Time these journalists face serious consequences for their treason. at the very least they should be arrested and their release should be made very difficult...

ramdas

Hope they test the K-4 soon after the defect is corrected and not wait for 10 more months. Rapid all up testing is better than overdoing simulations etc. North Korea’s recent successes show this clearly. A lot of time has already been lost between January (when a scheduled test did not take place) a...

ramdas

The rot indeed ran deep. After all, Mani Shankar Iyer was also in the IFS. The entire Congi top brass as well as ``moderate" BJP elements (look at Yashwant Sinha) appear to have been subverted (probably starting from the late 90's if not earlier). These elements seem to have planned to eventual...

ramdas

@SSridhar Could it be, as claimed by Prasun Sengupta, that Pak has only a dozen or so non tactical nukes donated by PRC ? It also makes sense from the PRC's point of view. PRC would not want to end up as a victim of one of their own nukes. If the number is on such a small scale, then talk of the abi...

ramdas

^^ Should'nt leaking such info, if such info is true, lead to the concerned journalists being imprisoned ? Preferably, a worse fate, along the lines of a life imprisonment, should befall such elements. Such traitors should not be allowed to continue with their business.

ramdas

@ramana: that is what I have been saying. P8I is the only combat item, the rest being non-combat and all at astronomical prices. Add to that the political baggage. This ``alliance" is not worth it. SoKo would have had its own deterrent had it not overvalued such an ``alliance". Today, it i...

ramdas

@Ramana: Unlike the Pakis, Larry Pressler is not claiming that the IUCNA is bolstering our strategic armaments (nukes/missiles) in any way. He claims that the IUCNA was a sweetener for general (i.e, conventional/related) deals with the U.S. MIC. Given how much we have coughed up for expensive U.S. t...

ramdas

Munir Akram's ambitions are most probably beyond TSP's technical capabilities to fulfill, even in the next 25-30 years. The fact that TSP has not launched a satellite in spite of all the IRBMs it has got, while Iran and NoKo have launched satellites even as they acquired IRBMs, goes to show that TSP...

ramdas

@ramana: How can you be sure that no further proliferation to Pak will occur (i.e, ``Abbasi got the message"). Abbasi is irrelevant here. GHQ could well obtain NoKo TN design. By the time unkil admits this, it would be too late. The way I see this, the game that PRC played in the 90s (equipping...

ramdas

@sudeepj: agree 100%. We can't measure Pak/PRC/NoKo based on what we view as unacceptable damage, and you have explained precisely why this is so.

ramdas

So far there is no MIRV/MRV testing. MRV (without independent targeting capability) would also suffice as long as 8 20-25kt can be loaded onto each missile. If testing is not an option, moving rapidly and openly on such a track is the best. Regarding the claim of dialing up to 325kt, that has to be ...

ramdas

@pankajs: the quantity required is clear: 8x20 kt = 500kt-1MT in destruction. So, lack of high yield must be compensated for by going in for 8 times the number of warheads in MRVed/MIRVed configurations (MRVed may suffice). There is no evidence that this is being done. If done, this is indeed one wa...

ramdas

Of course, if we have enough to make the others collapse, a situation of mutually assured destruction will exist, which will deter the other side from initiating anything that could eventually lead to a nuclear exchange. If you do not believe this, you should be questioning the need for any kind of ...

ramdas

@shiv: but powers with high yield weapons can inflict damage on a scale that makes a nation collapse. If TSP through NoKo gets this ability, and our response can only damage a few cities in the way you specified, the jihadist TSP generals may well find this an ``acceptable deal". The counter ca...

ramdas

@sudeepj: Yes, the 1998 failure would have given data that would help the next time we decide to go in for a test of a staged device (if such a decision is ever made). My apologies for what I said about RC. The fact remains that an honest assessment about the need for further testing should have bee...

ramdas

@shiv: Can you explain why DPRK felt the need for high yield when 20 kt should have sufficed for deterrence ?

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