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by abhijitm
19 Nov 2019 16:37
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

^^ not surprising eh that they don't teach anything about maratha empire in schools.
by abhijitm
19 Nov 2019 16:18
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

As much as I am not a fan of Bhaiwood but its nice to see words like 'Bhagwa' becoming part of lexicon. Somewhere some forgotten Heros are being brought to life. Soon it will become a Tsunami. Expect a movie on Maharana Pratap soon. Waiting the day they make a Hindi movie on Vijaynagara & Chola...
by abhijitm
19 Nov 2019 14:05
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

If the "alliance" does not form the govt, there are "other" considerations in play. the abrahamics understand the concept of taqiya very well indeed and use it frequently to achieve their ends. twitter Congress managers are smart enough to realise that not a single Muslim, Chris...
by abhijitm
19 Nov 2019 10:11
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

SP is as of now the tallest politician in MH and they say as with any such leader has gigantic ego. He is old, had cancer and still personally running around, doing negotiation while UT a non mass leader sending his tinpot messenger for negotiation with SP. This arrogance may not go down well with S...
by abhijitm
15 Nov 2019 19:19
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

So after giving up Hindutva, what is SS's USP? Why will voter vote for SS in the future. Does SS have a caste base like the Marathas for NCP? Hidutva was never their USP. Their voters are marathis in and around Mumbai. Hindutva was add-on which they can easily shake off without losing core votes. I...
by abhijitm
15 Nov 2019 14:24
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Kashi wrote:
abhijitm wrote:Last option is to get SC to make split of pre poll alliance illegal and order a fresh election.


I don't think that is legally tenable at all.

In my opinion it does come under criminal law (mass cheating) instead of election framework.
by abhijitm
15 Nov 2019 14:08
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

No party is going to split.
Unlike SS, NCP will not break pre poll alliance and support BJP
If BJP allows them to continue then high probability of this government lasting full term.

My preference would be get SC to call for new election.
by abhijitm
15 Nov 2019 13:52
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Last option is to get SC to make split of pre poll alliance illegal and order a fresh election.
by abhijitm
14 Nov 2019 21:23
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

raids on BMC contractors today.
by abhijitm
14 Nov 2019 16:36
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

The biggest giveaway that SS are lying through their teeth about 50-50 formula was immediately after the result, on the day of result first reaction from SS was 50-50. Now here are the faultlines. They said: 1. 50-50 was agreed, that too by AS himself 2. SS was requested to keep quiet about it as BJ...
by abhijitm
14 Nov 2019 12:26
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

NCP and Cong both are playing games now fully knowing SS is under their thumb. Fun would be if BJP declare they have closed the door for SS . This will left SS with zero negotiation power with ncp and cong. Yesterdin, Shah gave an interview especially to address the MH situation where he squarely p...
by abhijitm
14 Nov 2019 12:17
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Some of the cong/ncp conditions to SS: 1. No thackray family CM 2. 2.5 yrs CM for ncp 3. 5 yrs deputy CM for cong 4. 1/3rd ministries to cong, other 1/3rd to ncp 5. Key portfolios to ncp 6. SS to clarify its stand on hindutva and secularism News is cong is now not interested in dy CM post. More bar...
by abhijitm
14 Nov 2019 12:10
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

https://twitter.com/rahulkanwal/status/1194613788927918080 Rahul Kanwal @rahulkanwal Shiv Sena is increasingly convinced that Sharad Pawar is playing a double game . Thackerays no longer certain of NCP’s real motives , which is why Udhav opened direct line with Cong leaders. At this moment Cong see...
by abhijitm
14 Nov 2019 00:24
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

BJP MH president Chandrakant Patil played stupid game before the election. Wisdom says if there is a multi player fight then you kill the weakest first, feast on spoils and then go after next weakest. The weakest im MH is cong but instead of going after Cong with full force he decided to raid on NCP...
by abhijitm
14 Nov 2019 00:13
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

IMHO Pawar will not opt to support BJP without Cong buy in. He will not break his pre-poll alliance. Last time he offered support because NCP fought independently. This time too he would have easily given support to BJP first had there not been alliance with Cong. It didn't happend in last 20 days, ...
by abhijitm
13 Nov 2019 15:49
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

It was back then they had told me there was unhappiness amongst the cadre due to a general feeling of being given a raw deal by the BJP. What where their reasons to feel that BJP gave SS a raw deal? One, SS folks may have a feeling that they are the most supreme and by default BJP should be playing...
by abhijitm
13 Nov 2019 14:16
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Key here is sena cadre who have not yet put the pressure on MLAs to deter from this act. If their street cadre think this is okay then UT will be further encouraged. I am suspecting sena was planning and waiting for a right opportunity to break away from hindutva and stick to local identity politics...
by abhijitm
13 Nov 2019 10:50
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Some of the cong/ncp conditions to SS: 1. No thackray family CM 2. 2.5 yrs CM for ncp 3. 5 yrs deputy CM for cong 4. 1/3rd ministries to cong, other 1/3rd to ncp 5. Key portfolios to ncp 6. SS to clarify its stand on hindutva and secularism ^^^Is this from chaiwallahs, or is there any media source ...
by abhijitm
13 Nov 2019 09:43
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Also maintaining ambiguity in politics is key. How AS and NM don't speak, to maintain that ambiguity. When UT gave shouting job to Raut he should have kept mum. You have a parrot speaking then why take press conferences! If at the end if you want to change your stand then you can easily make scapego...
by abhijitm
13 Nov 2019 09:37
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

SS has put itself in a corner and as a lollipop if a couple of plum ministries are given they will like pakis claim victory in defeat and give BJP the support to form the government. Even that option for SS will go if they still act haughty. They put themselves in the corner and then dug a hole and...
by abhijitm
13 Nov 2019 09:30
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Some of the cong/ncp conditions to SS:
1. No thackray family CM
2. 2.5 yrs CM for ncp
3. 5 yrs deputy CM for cong
4. 1/3rd ministries to cong, other 1/3rd to ncp
5. Key portfolios to ncp
6. SS to clarify its stand on hindutva and secularism
by abhijitm
12 Nov 2019 21:14
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

NCP has hanged SS dry. They purposely sent the letter to guv today and immediately BJP imposed pres rule, like super coordinated plan!
by abhijitm
12 Nov 2019 17:13
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

greatde wrote:Not sure what BJP gains by this haste President’s rule. Those 3 parties can still form alliance any time, as long as assembly isn’t dissolved.

yeh, may be BJP played the last card and resigned from the game. Over to NCP, Cong and SS.
by abhijitm
12 Nov 2019 16:18
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Doubt this cabinet move will stand good in SC. Looks like to me bjp played its last card. Now if SC takes control then 'ram bharose' anything can happen.
by abhijitm
12 Nov 2019 10:56
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Actually it would be short sighted for the INC and NCP to form a shaky government with the SS right now. If they let the state go into President's rule they are guaranteed a victory in the subsequent elections. They don't even have to do much, merely fight together, while the SS and BJP fight separ...
by abhijitm
12 Nov 2019 10:48
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

I wonder why people are writing off SS. After all they are the ones forming the govt, their vote share seems to be largely intact. They'll install a Maratha CM on the gaddi , supported by the other Maratha party. So where's the downside to this? What makes members o optimistic/pessimistic about SS'...
by abhijitm
12 Nov 2019 10:18
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Raut was punching way above infinity and beyond his weight. I am following SS for decades now and this man was nothing but thackray's parrot whose job was to edit samaana newspaper and probably manage thackaray's finances like PA. And this time he became negotiator for government formation! That too...
by abhijitm
11 Nov 2019 23:07
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Time to open enquiry on BMC contracts.
by abhijitm
11 Nov 2019 22:02
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

So NCP successfully broke 30 years alliance, that too pre-poll alliance, and then gamed SS. Bravo. I wonder if push comes to shove BJP has decided to support NCP, otherwise calling them to form gov makes no sense when publicly there was no intention from NCP. If that happens - really low probability...
by abhijitm
11 Nov 2019 16:44
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

I am not sure, but is there any precedence for this scenario where an alliance was formed before election and then a partner broke away to form gov with aother party? If not, then guv should have dissolved the assemble and called for fresh election citing immoral post election-alliance. Let SS+NCP+C...
by abhijitm
11 Nov 2019 15:49
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

nits wrote:In all this what happens to BMC - will BJP take support back from SS there ?

They should. Snap all ties.
by abhijitm
11 Nov 2019 13:03
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

In pure context of MH: There are many grey areas when it comes to hindu pride and "hindutva". A hindu, a proud hindu or devotional hindu, he doesn't automatically become BJP voter. Similarly rural hindus vote for NCP/Cong are not hinduphobe or islamists. Maharashtrian society is very reli...
by abhijitm
11 Nov 2019 12:46
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

3. After the government is formed, how will SS and CON/NCP react to sickular/hindutva taunts/baits thrown at the very unnatural alliance will be interesting. E.g. BJP could invite UT/AT to the a function to felicitate MH locals who facilitated the Ram temple and test it hindutva credentials. If SS ...
by abhijitm
11 Nov 2019 09:57
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

I have been judging few generation loyal SS voters, they are not happy with whats going on, but they will never ditch SS and shift their vote to other party. I am guessing SS has done this homework knowing not many of their voters are fence sitters. So, whatever they do will be eventually forgiven.
by abhijitm
10 Nov 2019 18:13
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Terroristan - May 1, 2019
Replies: 2904
Views: 492873

Re: Terroristan - May 1, 2019

From now on lets call the moron with his real and apt nick name - Imran Khan Niazi.
by abhijitm
10 Nov 2019 00:48
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

CRamS wrote:AbhijitJi, 69 is not too old, I pray and hope for his good health. I am told he exercises a lot, meditates, lives a spiritual life as Karma sanyasi, but he likes good food :-). That last part maybe he should cut back :-).

Absolutely. All prayers for his good health. May he lives 100+.
by abhijitm
09 Nov 2019 23:53
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

By a million miles, Modi is the best ever PM, ever and ever. Called pak nuke bluff using surgical strike and air strike. Unprecedented, one and only one attack by one nuke nation on another. Banned 3T. 370 and 35A abolished. Ramjanmabhumi solved. UCC next. I can't believe I lived to see these days!!...
by abhijitm
09 Nov 2019 11:13
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: The Ram Janmbhoomi Verdict: News and Discussion
Replies: 1043
Views: 83804

Re: The Ram Janmbhoomi Verdict: News and Discussion

OmkarC wrote:unanimous judgement - with Messrs Chandrachud & Nazeer.. not looking good

Does not look good for hindus for sure
by abhijitm
08 Nov 2019 21:15
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3619
Views: 370299

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

As far as some here and there chaiwala goes, gadkari is clean. He is infra man from 90s so for that work he is modi's go to man.

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