UlanBatori wrote:OTOH, a) (superficially) and b) apply equally well to the Taliban, good or bad, yet the TSPA-ISI are what created, trained and fed them. To quote General Mohammed Aziz, Chief of the Pakistan Army of Islam(ic Terror), recipient of the Legend of Honor, Dignity and Sovirgnity from no less than the US War College: (source: phone call intercept between Pervez Musharraf and Mohammed Aziz, April 1999)
UlanBatori ji, the very difference 'good' and 'bad' Taliban came about was because the PA/ISI was willing to do business with one group and unwilling to do so with the other (or one can even say that one group was unwilling to do business with PA/ISI). At the time of Kargil, there were no competing forces for the PA to choose from. Today, there is Daesh and AQ/AQIS. Even though Daesh is a breakaway fraction of AQ, and they may still collaborate sometimes (as it seems to have happened in Paris recently), there are issues where they do not see eye to eye. One technique that the PA/ISI employs to control its terrorist organizations when they grow too big is to engineer a split as it happened in Harkat-ul-Ansar or HuJI or even in LeT. But, the AQ split was beyond its purview and control. It was created by the West Asian Kingdoms, Turkey and the US where Pakistan is a small fry relegated to foot-soldiering as shown by the USD 1 B that KSA was supposed to have offered to the 'brotherly' Pakistan for some assistance for the IS.
The late B. Raman pointed out that 80% of the Officer Corps(es) of the Taliban in Afghanistan were Pakistan Army officers.
The undisputed fact is that the Taliban were created by PA/ISI (and the US) in 1994 and they took over Kabul in 1996. Soon thereafter, the Taliban acted as a host to the AQ virus that was transplanted into their petri dish/into their cell by the Benazir government in 1998 at the behest of KSA (and possibly the US). The AQ were composed exclusively of Arab and Uzbek/Chechen groups until they merged with Taliban through interlinking marriages and the unfolding events. This distinction is important. Today, the Arabs have mostly moved away from AQ to IS (except for the AQ chief Ayman al-Zawahiri and the Uzbeks have been loaned to the TTP). They were already attracted by the violence of Musab-al-Zarqawi and though AQ hated another power-centre within it, there was hesitation in expelling him. His 'martyrdom' and iconic status helped in the movement of the Arab cadres.
The ISIS today is basically the Taliban of the 1990s - funded by Saudis/Gelf Oil Thieves. Their brutality is glaring because it is advertised on YouTube, but are they any worse than the Saudis in reality?
The TSPA is basically a rent-a rapist (RaR). They will rent out to anyone who allows them their pastimes. So I think the major source for Officer Recruiting for Daeish is indeed TSPA. US-trained, ready to operate and train others with M-1s, Apaches, TOWs, Stingers. Fluent in Angreji. Issues such as "whisky-swilling" I suspect, will be OK with Daeish at its upper levels, just as they are for the Gelf Thieves and Saudis.
About subservience, I agree that they will go their own way, but operational planning will still be with TSPA/ISI experts. 70 years of experience, what-what! The quid pro quo at the top levels will be to target India.
While PA's top echelons are corrupt to the core, it is this weakness alone that will make them think many times before accepting the Daesh as a partner, even if Daesh is willing to partner with the PA/ISI. At this point, Daesh does not seem to like the PA/ISI as can be seen from the types of the TTP commanders who have joined the IS and who have been recently appointed Emirs of various units.
If you recall, the MAJOR let-down that the TSPA suffered was that after the conquest of Kabul in 1992, the Taliban refused to come to Kashmir. OBL and Al Zuwahiri basically seem to have declared that India was far more hospitable (and soft) for their followers than much of the rest of the world, so India was a very low priority.
If Daeish agrees to feel differently, the TSPA is in fat-city.
That is why the PA wants to appropriate AQIS and unleash their barbaric Uzbek forces in J&K, IMO. The other let down for PA was that the Taliban refused to accept the Durand Line as the frontier and drop their claim for areas across that. And, yet the PA/ISI continue to protect the Taliban and want to re-installl them at Kabul. As for AQ's interest in India, it is true that in the timeframe you are referring to, we were a low-priority though OBL generously helped Hafeez Saeed for his terror activities in India. Of late, after the IS interest in Khorasan, the AQ has changed its tunes,
P.S. the 'Long Post" does not mention TSP's GUBOing under SEATO. That was a formal alliance, that was behind such other stellar successes of US foreign policy as Korea and Vietnam.
Correct. It should have been mentioned. Thanks for pointing out.