UBCN dares to go out far on a limb (more on that analogy later..) and predict/hope:
This is the beginning of the Grand Solution.
1. NaMO/ Doval point out the obvious to Iran and the US: they are on a lose-lose bissing contest.
2. Identify common interests b4 gripes as in Sabke Saath Sabka Vikas, Pak/cheen ka toota ass.
a) Biss and the pursuit of unlimited wealth for both Eyeran and Yoo Ess.
b) US wants a decent exit from Afghanistan
c) US cannot be seen as tolerating a new clear armed Eyeran
d) US would LIKE a US-friendly regime in Teheran
e) US would like to maintain pretence of "US-ally" Iraq
f) US would like to extricate from Syria to get more immersed in Libya SNAFU. Limited potential for ATGM sales in Syria any more.
e) Iran wants to decent way out of conflict with Israel
f) Iran wants to advance with nuclear power and development.
g) Iran would like an Iran-friendly regime in DupliCity.
h) Iran wants protection from KSA and Sunni genocidal expansionsim.
g) Mullahs are concerned about Bredator strikes.
1) US cannot be **seen as** abandoning KSA: bad consequences if most of Sunni regimes become anti-US to match their populations' mood.
2) US regime cannot be ***seen as** bissing off Israel.
3) US regime (for now) is getting concerned that the security of the oil fields and routes through the Straits of Hormuz/ larger Persian Gulf should not be interrupted pre-Nov. 4, 2020 (or, more to the point, Senate Impeachment Vote).
4) Iran regime cannot be seen as bending over for castration of newclear capabilities.
5) Iran (regime and ppl) want to keep Syrian govt alive.
6) Israel will not tolerate Hezbollah presence near Israel border in Syria
7) Israel wants end to missile attacks by Hezbollah and Hamas.
Opportunity/ Common Interest:
1) US and Iran would like to keep Pakis/Taliban from winning power in Kabul/Kandahar.
2) US and Iran would like to develop Chabahar link to Central Asia.
So HERE's the deal:
1. De-escalation. Iran to continue observing enrichment limits in nuclear program: will open to IAEA inspection.
2. De-escalation. Iran to agree to keep Hezbollah from bringing ballistic missiles closer than X to Israel borders.
3. De-escalation. Iran to agree to limit Hamas operations against Israel (temporary etc, provided Israel AF observes temporary truce as well).
4. De-escalation. US to scale back/not implement sanctions.
5. De-escalation. EU to pull out of lawsuit.
6. De-escalation. US to pull out of Syria and end all aid to Moderate Child-Beheaders (already down to Idlib and Deir-ez-Zor parts).
7. Positive step. US to recognize legitimate need for Iranian Mullahs to go expose their mijjiles to nuclear radiation for research and Power purposes.
8. Positive step: Iran to scale back shia hostilities against US in Iraq as US scales down.
9. Positive step: Joint US-Iran-Indian escorts for oil tankers in Gelf.
10. Positive step: US assistance to Iran to develop Chabahar-Central Asia road (means contracts to Halliburton with baksheesh to Mullahs)
11. Open International Port at Chabahar with joint Indian-Iranian operations, US and Russian ships to get berthing facilities there as well.
12. Positive step: US to push KSA for Yemen ceasefire and massive Mullah Marshall Plan type relief and development for Yemen.
13. US TSA to get the contract for crowd control and security at M*cca for Haj. Guarantee equal opportunity to shias and sunnis to get debriefed.
14. And now comes the small print: a) Iranian IRGC to be pulled out of Syria ASAP, and redeployed in southern Afghanistan as road-building proceeds from the Chabahar-North Route, eastwards to Kandahar. Indian Air Force to work with Iranian Air Force and US Bredators/ Space Command to spot threats, IRGC on the ground to prosecute and secure the areas with aggressive patrols. All the way to the Balochistan Border. With hot-pursuit south as needed.
b) Iran-India agreement to provide Indian Good Offices to keep Iranian Balochistan out of the ambitions of the BLF.
c) Iran thus takes over the security of western and southern (Helmand and Kandahar) Afghanistan, by invitation of Afghan govt.
d) Indian development moves into these regions, along with US contractors as appropriate. Mostly passing through Chabahar, with air links to Teheran and Mumbai.
15. KSA to co-fund the development in western and southern Afghanistan through Indian companies with Iranian ground security and Indian-Iranian-US joint air security.
16. Northern link from Central Asia to be a Russian / Kazakh/Uzbek/Kyrghistani/ Turkmenistani project.
17. Link to OBOR across the north, as opposed to the POK/Gwadar route. OK some permission given for traffic through POK to K'rachi/ Gwadar for now...
UBCN believes we have captured the essential points to keep all players who will contribute positively.
18. Pakistan ***will have the opportunity
*** to ensure security and clean out the Pakiban from the Peshawar/Quetta regions to provide clear routes. Or get all of the others to bomb the pakistan out of pakistan.