West Asia News and Discussions

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habal
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 14 Jan 2020 08:18

Image

Philip
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Philip » 14 Jan 2020 11:15

Yes,flooded IAF F-16s,second time its happened at that base, but the IAF say all will be well within 8 to 10 days. Strange situ though,the base needs some civvy redesigning.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Y. Kanan » 14 Jan 2020 11:38

Now that the US has so openly demonstrated its technical superiority and willingness to use it, what’s to stop Israel (backed by Trump) from in turn escalating bigly in Syria? Blow up Assad? Blow away the entire Syrian command? At this point, why not?

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Vikas » 14 Jan 2020 12:00

^ The only reason could be that Israel would not want a completely crazy neighborhood being run over by krazy yahoos whose ultimate target would be the destruction of Yahoodi state..
For now, Assad is busy in saving his state. Once he is gone, Who is to say that the next Khalifa would not direct the turrets of the Tanks towards Israel and join Iran in attacking Israel.
What is in it for Israel to escalate anywhere in ME ?

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 14 Jan 2020 12:07

birds eye view of west asia from desi perspective (Israel, Palestine, Jordan)

Israel: It is the most water sufficient (for residents) country in mid-east. Nowhere else will you find water being used so liberally and availability so plentiful as in Israel. Yes, water is scarce but it is available from somewhere. In other parts of mid-east water is scarce and neither is it available in quantities as in Israel.

Most Israel water is drinkable. Even water available in washrooms can be drunk safely I feel. This is unlike Egypt where any water is undrinkable and laced with ecoli and chemicals. Maybe Egypt has highest water availability in mid-east but it is entirely undrinkable unless treated with nuclear radiation. You get the point.

Most people in Israel wash their cars. All the cars in Israel look clean and washed. Most of the neighbouring countries have super luxury cars like BMW X5s and Merc GLs but 95% of these cars are dusty and unwashed. Israel has enough water to wash their cars and keep driveways and surroundings dust free. The only dusty cars or beaten cars with paints faded off belong to the palestinians who have crossed border for some purpose.

Water is available in Israel for farming, for aquaculture, for plenty of miscellaneous uses.

People: Palestinians are the most hospitable people in mid-east. Very friendly to Indians and all other asians. You can bargain with them and joke with them, no issues. Their cities and towns are as clean or unclean as Indian growth towns/cities like bangalore outskirts. For example most shops along the streets that are not grocery or daily provisions are marble, tile, building/bathroom accessory shops. Most building wastes like rubble is lying heaped along the streets. As in other muslim areas there are fruit shops and meat shops. You can bargain for anything in palestine, there is no fixed price for anything here unless branded or packaged.

Israel: People: This is going to get interesting. Children out and about on streets and going to school etc is most visible in Israel in all of middle east. In Jordan children out & about just are not visible. And no children can be found playing outside as well. In Israel small 2 and 3 yr olds can be seen whinging it to school either all alone or in small groups. These children will not laugh or smile at strangers or brown people or it seems any people, this is unlike in Palestine, (west bank esp) where children will make eye contact and laugh at strangers, and they seem more normal for some reason. The small children in Israel will make an abrupt turn, without any warning, from a pavement to cross the road on zebra crossing and the oncoming traffic just stops on sudden brake. Very empowered are children in Israel. A very small minority of adult Israelis, say 5%, will smile at Indians and make an effort and say namaste. This seem to be the group that has visited India or has some kind of contact with India in past or have served in armed forces which had contact with India, but very few Israelis do make this effort to connect with Indians. Maybe they are Netanyahu party members, who knows ?

Palestine on the other hand is an impoverished tourist economy and they will make an effort to connect with anyone and everyone. They totally depend upon tourism for revenue or daily trade with Israel. Crossing any Israeli checkpoint between palestine and Israel in morning and one can find palestinians standing in long lines across checkpoint (they have crossed the checkpoint and are in Israel) in Israel waiting for some contractor or private Israeli citizen to hire them for the day for some task such as building or repair. This is like scene in India where outstation labour stand at various strategic sites waiting for someone to hire them for the day.

Arabs in Palestine, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Oman etc depend upon tourism and daily wages for survival and have a different attitude with foreigners unlike the pampered sheikhs of gulf like qatar, bahrain, saudi, kuwait, uae who are not used to work and survive on handouts and largesse from govt. Thus one can find a lot of hostility towards immigrants and outsiders in these gulf sheikhdom arab countries from 'locals'. But arab countries of the first group behave like normal people because they have to work to earn a living.

Govt of Israel is not content with what they have inspite of the fact that they have much more in resources and water than any of their neighbours. They are predatory and want to occupy even more land and more access to water in surrounding countries like Golan, Egyptian nile valley, Lebanon beka valley etc. They have their eye on these places for sure and they will find some compliant US govt to help them stir the khichdi in these countries with a view to destabilize and in future somehow occupy these resources. Palestine landscape in most areas is dusty and blight on the eyes, their farmlands are rarely watered and are a dusty mess unlike Israel and no chance of any better in future as well.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 14 Jan 2020 12:42

But the big question which many people on social media are asking is: why was this “videographer” standing in a derelict industrial area outside Tehran at around six o’clock in the morning with a mobile phone camera training on a fixed angle to the darkened sky? The airliner is barely visible, yet the sky-watching person has the camera pointed and ready to film a most dramatic event, seconds before it happened.That strongly suggests, foreknowledge.

Given that something awful has just been witnessed it is all the more strange that the person holding the camera remains calm and unshaken. There is no audible expression of shock or even the slightest disquiet.

Turns out that Nariman Gharib, the guy who received the video and credited by the NY Times for submitting it, is a vociferous anti-Iranian government dissident who does not live in Iran. He ardently promotes regime change in his social media posts.

Christiaan Triebert, the NY Times’ video expert, who collaborated closely with Gharib to get the story out within hours of the incident, previously worked as a senior investigator at Bellingcat. Bellingcat calls itself an independent online investigative journalism project, but numerous critics accuse it of being a media adjunct to Western military intelligence. Bellingcat has been a big proponent of media narratives smearing the Russian and Syrian governments over the MH17 shoot-down in Ukraine in 2014 and chemical weapons attacks.

In the latest shoot-down of the airliner above Tehran, the tight liaison between a suspiciously placed anonymous videographer on the ground and an expatriate Iranian dissident who then gets the prompt and generous technical attention of the NY Times suggests a level of orchestration, not, as we are led to believe, a random happenstance submission. More sinisterly, the fateful incident was a setup.

https://www.sott.net/article/427303-Was ... er-Tehran#

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/52846.htm

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 14 Jan 2020 12:54

Stop buying Iranian oil or face sanctions’: US in talks with China over Iran

Washington has managed to "cut off probably over 95 percent of the oil revenues" of Iran, according to US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
He told Fox News that US officials are now working on the issue with China, as the country accounts for a significant part of Iran’s remaining oil exports.

"I sat down with the Chinese officials. They flew in a delegation to meet with us and the State Department to talk about this. They've cut off all of the state companies from buying oil, and we're working closely with them to make sure that they cease all additional oil activities," Mnuchin said

https://www.rt.com/business/478104-us-c ... anian-oil/

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Vikas » 14 Jan 2020 14:15

habal wrote:birds eye view of west asia from desi perspective (Israel, Palestine, Jordan)

Israel: It is the most water sufficient (for residents) country in mid-east. ……….
snip snip
Palestine landscape in most areas is dusty and blight on the eyes, their farmlands are rarely watered and are a dusty mess unlike Israel and no chance of any better in future as well.


Thanks Habal for putting it out.
Is this desi perspective yours or is this from some blog ?

When Palestinians and Israelis wander the same land, How come one has plenty of water while other is almost a dust bowl ?

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 14 Jan 2020 14:47

It is mine sire.
To imagine palestine, you have to imagine rain deficit areas of sindh, pakistan or somalia. You get the idea. All they cultivate there are date palms and that is coated in inch thick dust. There used to be a big river called Jordan, that flows from sea of galilee (it is fresh water) into the old Jordan. Israel blocked that river long ago and reduced it to trickle, now Israel has plenty of water. They also have desalination plants. Palestine is a different country not served by Israel water network except in certain areas of west bank like Jerusalem where there are some contentious common areas where both communities live cheek by jowl like chandni chowk. They mostly live on UN handout. Israeli police is visible in west bank areas and wears black camo patrolling certain areas and palestinians have light blue shirt and dark blue pants. Israeli police walks around with submachine guns and palestine police have none. There are big highways like hebron valley expressways. On one side is palestine and on other side across a cliff and barbed wire and a manmade valley is Israel.

Fact of matter is there is more water in Israel than even most well watered places of India. Maybe expensive though, dont know how much they pay for it. The way Israeli fields were being watered with 10 metre long booms w/sprinklers along length attached to tractors, I have never seen in India. They also have some farms that are watered by micro-drip irrigation. Anyways finance for both doesn't seem like a problem. All in all it is a very prosperous country.

Israelis mostly drive normal cars like desis such baleno, suzuki swift, scross, vitara, skoda, hyundai etc but they keep them clean. In that they are like desh, rest of middle east is strongly into bling but even luxury cars are covered in dust.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 14 Jan 2020 15:11

Image

Hussein Askary Discusses The New Silk Road’s Advance Across The Middle East

Anyone looking at a map of the Belt and Road Initiative will notice that Syria, Iraq and Iran’s stability and active participation are vital for this world changing program to function. Anyone not realizing that this program of win-win cooperation is in direct anti-thesis to the neocon paradigm of “a clash of civlizations” would be blind to the very essence of world history and modern events.

Recently, EIR Southwest Asia Coordinator Hussein Askary gave a powerful interview with Syria Times where he described the Anglo-Zionist forces whose dystopic vision for the Middle East and world at large has been disrupted with Russian and China’s collaborative presence in the region.


https://www.fort-russ.com/2020/01/husse ... ddle-east/

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Vikas » 14 Jan 2020 15:44

Thanks Habal for the detailed writeup.
Its interesting that so called Ummah countries like Iran and KSA are willing to arm Palestinians with all sorts of weapons and armory to kill Israelis but not finance a desalination plant and distribution system which is basic necessity of life.
On top, even Palestinians are OK to receive doles and handouts (and arms) but nothing which would improve the quality of life and make future secure for next generation.

Stupid priorities.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 14 Jan 2020 16:37

Trump will now have to exercise one of two options that he threatened Iraqi PM
a. Organize mass protests against your govt.
b. I will assassinate you and your defence minister.

which will he choose ??

https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article ... e-country/

Iraq will not sign agreement to keep US forces inside country

BEIRUT, LEBANON (10:30 A.M.) – William Warda, the spokesman for Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, said that his country will not sign an agreement to keep the American forces in Iraq to continue fighting against ISIS, stressing that the Iraqi government will support the parliament’s vote on the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the country.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby John » 14 Jan 2020 19:07

habal wrote:But the big question which many people on social media are asking is: why was this “videographer” standing in a derelict industrial area outside Tehran at around six o’clock in the morning with a mobile phone camera training on a fixed angle to the darkened sky? The airliner is barely visible, yet the sky-watching person has the camera pointed and ready to film a most dramatic event, seconds before it happened.That strongly suggests, foreknowledge.

Given that something awful has just been witnessed it is all the more strange that the person holding the camera remains calm and unshaken. There is no audible expression of shock or even the slightest disquiet.

Turns out that Nariman Gharib, the guy who received the video and credited by the NY Times for submitting it, is a vociferous anti-Iranian government dissident who does not live in Iran. He ardently promotes regime change in his social media posts.

Christiaan Triebert, the NY Times’ video expert, who collaborated closely with Gharib to get the story out within hours of the incident, previously worked as a senior investigator at Bellingcat. Bellingcat calls itself an independent online investigative journalism project, but numerous critics accuse it of being a media adjunct to Western military intelligence. Bellingcat has been a big proponent of media narratives smearing the Russian and Syrian governments over the MH17 shoot-down in Ukraine in 2014 and chemical weapons attacks.

In the latest shoot-down of the airliner above Tehran, the tight liaison between a suspiciously placed anonymous videographer on the ground and an expatriate Iranian dissident who then gets the prompt and generous technical attention of the NY Times suggests a level of orchestration, not, as we are led to believe, a random happenstance submission. More sinisterly, the fateful incident was a setup.

https://www.sott.net/article/427303-Was ... er-Tehran#

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/52846.htm

Haha or perhaps he heard it and saw it, there were plenty of eye witness who saw it there are other videos as well including couple security cameras. The resolution of camera makes it seem like it is barely visible but in reality human eye could easily see it.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Lisa » 14 Jan 2020 19:38

Even stranger, to the best of my knowledge, not even one member of the Iranian Islamic Government is making this claim.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 14 Jan 2020 19:45

John wrote:[there were plenty of eye witness who saw it there are other videos as well including couple security cameras. The resolution of camera makes it seem like it is barely visible but in reality human eye could easily see it.


:rotfl:
I have lived next to palam airport, for the life of me, I have never tried to go shooting exactly one specific aeroplane taking off or landing animatedly while driving a car alongside especially if the landing aircraft if just a speck in the skies. And especially so when there is no external indication of any abnormality. I mean nothing is visible and that too in darkness what to speak of chasing a particular plane talking excitedly.

Just imagine how unnatural that is. And the gentleman named nariman gharib who gave the video footage to nyt is a known dissident who lives outside Iran. As also the car which was making the video belongs to member of a group named *rich kids of tehran* and they decided to take a car trip to parand, a low income housing locality in tehran. So rich kids get up at 5am in morning just to video random aeroplane in dark at 6am from a low-income, rough neighbourhood esp when the landing doesn't look any different from hundreds of other landings. Doesn't that look like too much of a coincidence to you.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 14 Jan 2020 19:48

Lisa wrote:Even stranger, to the best of my knowledge, not even one member of the Iranian Islamic Government is making this claim.


and thereby acknowledge that their SAM systems are spoofed ?? So then no commercial airline will land in tehran. game over.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Jan 2020 23:46

Habal: the plane was flying where no planes usually fly. Close to IRGC mijjile factory, which is why it was shot down. Engine noise == arrival of cruise missiles, expected. That is the best explanation I can imagine. Was it a fridin by any chance? Maybe plane noise was clearly audible: it was one engine running max thrust, desperately trying to make it back to the airport. May have been smoke trailing as well, from engine fire. As john said, it was 6:xxAM, may have been quite light in the sky, unlike what the video suggests. If I looked up and saw a plane flying low with smoke trailing, I would sure try to get my cellphone camera started up.

But what all this proves is that the plane was on a very unusual flight path over a no-fly zone.

Imagine for a moment that it was 9/11/2001 again. United airlines flight heading straight for WHOTUS. It's very clear even now that F-16s had orders to shoot it down, and the Patriot systems on WHOTUS roof would have taken it down as well.

COULD someone have made sure an engine blew up on takeoff, triggering a wide right turn to return to the airport? Far-fetched. Murderous, of course. But most likely outcome would have been either a crash short of the airport, or a successful landing followed by intense scrutiny of the blown engine. Not worth the risk.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby John » 15 Jan 2020 05:24

habal wrote:
John wrote:[there were plenty of eye witness who saw it there are other videos as well including couple security cameras. The resolution of camera makes it seem like it is barely visible but in reality human eye could easily see it.


:rotfl:
I have lived next to palam airport, for the life of me, I have never tried to go shooting exactly one specific aeroplane taking off or landing animatedly while driving a car alongside especially if the landing aircraft if just a speck in the skies. And especially so when there is no external indication of any abnormality. I mean nothing is visible and that too in darkness what to speak of chasing a particular plane talking excitedly.

Just imagine how unnatural that is. And the gentleman named nariman gharib who gave the video footage to nyt is a known dissident who lives outside Iran. As also the car which was making the video belongs to member of a group named *rich kids of tehran* and they decided to take a car trip to parand, a low income housing locality in tehran. So rich kids get up at 5am in morning just to video random aeroplane in dark at 6am from a low-income, rough neighbourhood esp when the landing doesn't look any different from hundreds of other landings. Doesn't that look like too much of a coincidence to you.

Probably got the video from someone inside, it’s not uncommon even I shot a video a while back of low flying small plane in my neighborhood at night and had to do emergency landing. I was going on a walk when I saw it. FYI multiple surveillance videos show the two missiles clearly nbc news just showed one.

Added: Iran has reportedly rounded up people who shot and posted these videos.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby hnair » 15 Jan 2020 10:18

Lisa wrote:Even stranger, to the best of my knowledge, not even one member of the Iranian Islamic Government is making this claim.


That is indeed true. The Iranians have apologized and at their highest levels of Government, expressed uncustomarily deep anguish at the accidental shootdown. No excuses have been trotted out - just a decent admission of human error. Unless the Iranian govt has been bought over fully by khan and which means they are the ones who sold out Soleimani. If it is not the case, kudos to them in coming out clean, which is a lot more than what either Ukraine or Russia did for the Malaysian airlines one.

Allright habal, enough on shootdown CT - rest of us will need to wait further news about the technical details. Too much BRF board bandwidth is being wasted on a closed issue.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby wig » 15 Jan 2020 10:44

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/ukrai ... edia-26563
Ukraine plane struck by two missiles, reports US media
Two Iranian missiles struck down a Ukrainian passenger jet, the New York Times reported on Tuesday, posting verified security camera footage showing double projectiles gliding through the sky before hitting their target.

The missiles were fired 30 seconds apart and help explain a mystery as to why the plane’s transponder was not working--it was disabled by the first strike, before being hit by a second, the Times said.

and
The blurry footage shows the plane on fire and circling back to Tehran’s airport, the Times said. Minutes later, it exploded and crashed.

The footage was shot from a rooftop in Bidkaneh, a village four miles from an Iranian military site, the Times said.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby amritk » 15 Jan 2020 11:42

UlanBatori wrote:The only way that both the minorities and the majority can win respect, is for the ruling junta to be from a MINORITY. Then they have to be careful not to biss off the majority to the point of rebellion. This is why Iraq under Saddam, and Syria under Assad, were reasonably stable.


This insight also explains why Iran is stable. A relatively modern and educated majority ruled by a minority of backward nutcases. But said nutcases have enough wits to provide basic governance and services. And this may be too much credit, but maybe the majority has enough collective sense not to overthrow the government just for the hell of it.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 15 Jan 2020 12:16

^^So let me see if I understand the PROPER explanation for the plane crash.
1) Airliner was climbing peacefully along the usual flight path.
2) WHAMMO! Missile from a missile factory air defense system hit the COCKPIT, thus kaputting the transponder.
3) There was no decompression or breakup at the cockpit. (OK it was wasn't high enough for ppl to get sucked out) but the amazing thing is that though the transponder was kaput, the pilots and controls were OK enough to execute a turn wide right.
4) WHAMMO! 30 seconds after the first one, second missile struck the plane. Huge explosion.
5) Plane continued to fly by djinn technology, sans wings or engines, for another 8 to 10 minutes(? per our earlier calculation of the flight path).
6) Big explosion. Plane crashed.

This is bunkum. The missiles hit because the plane was flying low over a part of the city where planes do not dare approach.

If the transponder wasn't working, it may have been damage from the spontaneous explosion of the Rolls Royce engine. Or the Boeing 737 software latest version.
Sorry to post after UN mandated ceasefire but I am merely responding to the "verified videos" explanation posted after the ceasefire. Ceasing fire again.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Vikas » 15 Jan 2020 13:44

If two missile theory is correct, then Are you saying that a single SAM is incapable of bringing down a Boeing airliner in one hit and it still keeps flying like a tailless lizard ?

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby g.sarkar » 15 Jan 2020 14:21

https://www.spiegel.de/international/a- ... cfcc0490c0
The U.S. Versus Iran
A Dangerous New Era in the Middle East
By killing top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, the U.S. has injected even more unpredictability into an already unstable region. Both sides have insisted they don't want war. But the conflict is likely to continue in the shadows.
By Markus Becker , Konstantin von Hammerstein , Christiane Hoffmann , Peter Müller , René Pfister , Maximilian Popp , Tobias Rapp , Christoph Reuter , Alexandra Rojkov , Marcel Rosenbach , Raniah Salloum , Christoph Scheuermann , Fidelius Schmid , Christoph Schult und Wolf Wiedmann-Schmidt, 10.01.2020.

U.S. President Donald Trump was determined to get revenge. But on Dec. 28, he still wasn't sure exactly how to go about it. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley traveled from Washington, D.C. to Florida, where Trump was vacationing in his luxury property, Mar-a-Lago. Outside, tourists were strolling along the beach. Inside, U.S. leadership was discussing how best to effectively punish Iran.
The day before, Tehran allies had carried out a rocket attack on a military base in northern Iraq, killing an American. The U.S. was certain that Tehran had ordered Kataib Hezbollah, one of the Shiite militias Iran cooperates with, to carry out the assault.
U.S. military leaders prepared a retaliatory attack and presented Trump with several options, most of them conventional military targets such as, according to an account in the New York Times, ships, missile facilities or Kataib Hezbollah positions. But as they generally do, the Pentagon officials also included a more extreme option: killing General Qassem Soleimani, the second-most powerful man in Iran and the country's chief military strategist. Soleimani had long been considered untouchable due to his senior position in Tehran. As commander of the Quds Force, he was in large part responsible for Iranian activities in the Middle East. Trump's predecessors in the White House, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, had both rejected the idea of killing Soleimani due to the very real risk of it triggering an uncontrollable war with Iran.
Trump, too, was initially wary of making such a move, instead authorizing the Air Force to bomb Kataib Hezbollah positions on Dec. 29. But that did little to quell the burgeoning crisis. On the contrary, Islamists attacked the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad two days later, again likely at the behest of Iranian leaders.
Trump was furious as he followed the events on television. The images were reminiscent of the 2012 assault on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, which resulted in the death of the American ambassador. Back then, the Republicans tried to pin responsibility for the attack on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. On Jan. 2, Trump then made a decision that surprised even his closest advisers: He ordered the killing of Soleimani. It was the most extreme of the options available to the president and one that had, until then, only been discussed in largely theoretical terms in the Pentagon.
It was a momentous decision, the most important foreign policy move of his tenure thus far, and one with deep and unpredictable implications for the Middle East and beyond. And he did so, according to U.S. media, without consulting his Iran experts – an impulsive decision. Just hours later, Soleimani was dead, killed by an American drone.
Allies and enemies of America alike were taken aback by the move. Many experts saw the killing of a general from a country with which the U.S. was not officially at war to be a potential violation of international law. In Iran, Iraq and Lebanon, Shiite demonstrators vowed to take revenge, while in Iran itself, leaders proclaimed a three-day mourning period, during which millions of Iranians took to the streets in memory of the "martyr."
The killing of Soleimani marks the beginning of a new and dangerous era in the Middle East, in which traditional rules of waging war no longer apply, with eye-for-an-eye logic once again pushed to the fore. Are we on the eve of open warfare between Iran and the U.S.? Below the surface, the conflict has long since begun. Instead of being fought by regular military forces, it is a kind of proxy war led by a changing cast of actors on a variety of stages. On Wednesday, Iran carried out its official act of retaliation, firing two dozen rockets at two military bases in Iraq. It was a limited attack and there were no casualties, with Iran apparently opting to avoid a dramatic escalation of the conflict for now. Nevertheless, it has entered a new phase.
.....
Gautam

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Rsatchi » 15 Jan 2020 16:08

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 270097.cms
Wow!!
This will be big smack in the face for the Napak Foreign Minister who goes around saying they are going to settle things in the 3.5 4fathers land.
Iranian FM coming here.
PM Modi spoke to DT earlier in the week/fortnight.
DT coming to India end of Feb.
No mention of Chin/Napak or for that matter EU
Something is definitely cooking!!
Following the 'Civilian Plane downing' wonder some deal being worked out with India as a go-between for US/EU/Iran as EU is an aggrieved party here and US press is quite vocal about plane disaster(rightly so)

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Philip » 16 Jan 2020 02:23

Why is there little reminiscing about the equally tragic downing of an Iranian airbus by the USS Vincennes a few decades ago in 1988 during the final days of the Iran- Iraq war. 290 passengers were killed but the US justified the act, the Vincennes was operating in Iranian waters. It supposedly mistook the airbus for an Iranian F-14 Tomcat also operated by the Iranians. Ex-gratia payments were made to the family but the US never admitted that it did wrong.Ulan B's hypothesis that the airliner was too close to an Iranian mil. facility is probably right. Who knows, was the UKR airliner deliberately flying near the base snoopin' like the KAL 007 case decades ago?

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 16 Jan 2020 03:04

Ppl:
UBCN dares to go out far on a limb (more on that analogy later..) and predict/hope:

This is the beginning of the Grand Solution.
1. NaMO/ Doval point out the obvious to Iran and the US: they are on a lose-lose bissing contest.
2. Identify common interests b4 gripes as in Sabke Saath Sabka Vikas, Pak/cheen ka toota ass.
a) Biss and the pursuit of unlimited wealth for both Eyeran and Yoo Ess.
b) US wants a decent exit from Afghanistan
c) US cannot be seen as tolerating a new clear armed Eyeran
d) US would LIKE a US-friendly regime in Teheran
e) US would like to maintain pretence of "US-ally" Iraq
f) US would like to extricate from Syria to get more immersed in Libya SNAFU. Limited potential for ATGM sales in Syria any more.

e) Iran wants to decent way out of conflict with Israel
f) Iran wants to advance with nuclear power and development.
g) Iran would like an Iran-friendly regime in DupliCity.
h) Iran wants protection from KSA and Sunni genocidal expansionsim.
g) Mullahs are concerned about Bredator strikes.

Constraints:
1) US cannot be **seen as** abandoning KSA: bad consequences if most of Sunni regimes become anti-US to match their populations' mood.
2) US regime cannot be ***seen as** bissing off Israel.
3) US regime (for now) is getting concerned that the security of the oil fields and routes through the Straits of Hormuz/ larger Persian Gulf should not be interrupted pre-Nov. 4, 2020 (or, more to the point, Senate Impeachment Vote).
4) Iran regime cannot be seen as bending over for castration of newclear capabilities.
5) Iran (regime and ppl) want to keep Syrian govt alive.
6) Israel will not tolerate Hezbollah presence near Israel border in Syria
7) Israel wants end to missile attacks by Hezbollah and Hamas.

Opportunity/ Common Interest:

1) US and Iran would like to keep Pakis/Taliban from winning power in Kabul/Kandahar.
2) US and Iran would like to develop Chabahar link to Central Asia.

So HERE's the deal:
1. De-escalation. Iran to continue observing enrichment limits in nuclear program: will open to IAEA inspection.
2. De-escalation. Iran to agree to keep Hezbollah from bringing ballistic missiles closer than X to Israel borders.
3. De-escalation. Iran to agree to limit Hamas operations against Israel (temporary etc, provided Israel AF observes temporary truce as well).
4. De-escalation. US to scale back/not implement sanctions.
5. De-escalation. EU to pull out of lawsuit.
6. De-escalation. US to pull out of Syria and end all aid to Moderate Child-Beheaders (already down to Idlib and Deir-ez-Zor parts).
7. Positive step. US to recognize legitimate need for Iranian Mullahs to go expose their mijjiles to nuclear radiation for research and Power purposes.
8. Positive step: Iran to scale back shia hostilities against US in Iraq as US scales down.
9. Positive step: Joint US-Iran-Indian escorts for oil tankers in Gelf.
10. Positive step: US assistance to Iran to develop Chabahar-Central Asia road (means contracts to Halliburton with baksheesh to Mullahs)
11. Open International Port at Chabahar with joint Indian-Iranian operations, US and Russian ships to get berthing facilities there as well.
12. Positive step: US to push KSA for Yemen ceasefire and massive Mullah Marshall Plan type relief and development for Yemen.
13. US TSA to get the contract for crowd control and security at M*cca for Haj. Guarantee equal opportunity to shias and sunnis to get debriefed.
14. And now comes the small print:
a) Iranian IRGC to be pulled out of Syria ASAP, and redeployed in southern Afghanistan as road-building proceeds from the Chabahar-North Route, eastwards to Kandahar. Indian Air Force to work with Iranian Air Force and US Bredators/ Space Command to spot threats, IRGC on the ground to prosecute and secure the areas with aggressive patrols. All the way to the Balochistan Border. With hot-pursuit south as needed.
b) Iran-India agreement to provide Indian Good Offices to keep Iranian Balochistan out of the ambitions of the BLF.
c) Iran thus takes over the security of western and southern (Helmand and Kandahar) Afghanistan, by invitation of Afghan govt.
d) Indian development moves into these regions, along with US contractors as appropriate. Mostly passing through Chabahar, with air links to Teheran and Mumbai.

15. KSA to co-fund the development in western and southern Afghanistan through Indian companies with Iranian ground security and Indian-Iranian-US joint air security.
16. Northern link from Central Asia to be a Russian / Kazakh/Uzbek/Kyrghistani/ Turkmenistani project.
17. Link to OBOR across the north, as opposed to the POK/Gwadar route. OK some permission given for traffic through POK to K'rachi/ Gwadar for now...

UBCN believes we have captured the essential points to keep all players who will contribute positively.
18. Pakistan ***will have the opportunity*** to ensure security and clean out the Pakiban from the Peshawar/Quetta regions to provide clear routes. Or get all of the others to bomb the pakistan out of pakistan. :mrgreen:

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby NRao » 16 Jan 2020 03:23

Rsatchi wrote:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-can-play-a-role-in-de-escalating-tensions-in-gulf-iranian-foreign-minister/articleshow/73270097.cms
Wow!!
This will be big smack in the face for the Napak Foreign Minister who goes around saying they are going to settle things in the 3.5 4fathers land.
Iranian FM coming here.
PM Modi spoke to DT earlier in the week/fortnight.
DT coming to India end of Feb.
No mention of Chin/Napak or for that matter EU
Something is definitely cooking!!
Following the 'Civilian Plane downing' wonder some deal being worked out with India as a go-between for US/EU/Iran as EU is an aggrieved party here and US press is quite vocal about plane disaster(rightly so)


Dt coming to India, at the end of Feb, predates the current set of events.

I wonder what the IRGC has to say about India as a mediator. I think they have more of a say than their FM.

Much like ISI.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby ramana » 16 Jan 2020 05:07

UB,
0)De-escalation Iran admits to downing Ukraine airliner.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby kit » 16 Jan 2020 06:01

habal wrote:Stop buying Iranian oil or face sanctions’: US in talks with China over Iran

Washington has managed to "cut off probably over 95 percent of the oil revenues" of Iran, according to US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
He told Fox News that US officials are now working on the issue with China, as the country accounts for a significant part of Iran’s remaining oil exports.

"I sat down with the Chinese officials. They flew in a delegation to meet with us and the State Department to talk about this. They've cut off all of the state companies from buying oil, and we're working closely with them to make sure that they cease all additional oil activities," Mnuchin said

https://www.rt.com/business/478104-us-c ... anian-oil/



Maybe Russia can help the Iranians by "rerouting" as their own ? .. just to spite the trumper !

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 16 Jan 2020 07:06

ramana re: 0) True: Sounds like Dilli advice has already done a LOT in this. I strongly suspect that the whole "u fire missiles carefully hitting old sheds with warning, we won't launch cruise missiles" was also Indian mediation, I don't see who else (maybe Putin is the only other possibility) would construct that.

But the main thing is that this can be turned into a viable solution to end the Forever War in AfPak and let all go home in dignity. Except the Pakis unless they take the chance to re-enter the human race. Because:
Once the IRGC can do hot pursuit into Balochistan, it is over for Paki/ Sunni terrorist rule there.
The Bolton/RobinR gang will try to torpedo the deal, so it is up to Dilli to put foot down, and point to 9/12/2001: the idiots in DupliCity listened to the late unlamented Uneven, and sided with the Pakis instead of finishing them off. Would have saved over 2700 American and millions of Afghan lives.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Vikas » 16 Jan 2020 12:30

I wonder what is Iranian FM is doing in India. After the dubious ill advised comment on Kashmir by Iranian regime, India too should offer gratuitous comment on protests in Iran, Killing of Muslims by Iranian regime and denounce their 2-faced game with USA. Iranians are no better than Pakjabi's and like to brag, flex their non existent muscles and try to punch way above their weight. Like coming back like a dog with its tail tucked between its legs, Now they want Indian support for their state sponsored terrorists.

Shia Iran forgets that if it ever came to picking side, India will play neutral at best and if a gun is put on the head, India will be in the corner of USA/KSA/Israel and rightly so.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Vikas » 16 Jan 2020 12:36

UlanBatori wrote:r Except the Pakis unless they take the chance to re-enter the human race. Because:
Once the IRGC can do hot pursuit into Balochistan, it is over for Paki/ Sunni terrorist rule there.


IRGC thugs will be decimated like Iraqi republican guards.
Very honestly, If Iranians ever got into an armed conflict with Pakis, They will have their a$$es handed out to them.
On any scale Pak army is way better than Iranians. Puke army kills Shias far more in numbers than any other govt force.
In any such case, Pukes will get all the help from Yankees, owners of Kaba and Yahood.
Their is a reason that Iranians bluster and then play with words but never threaten Pukes with action except for a bullet here or a bomb there.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby NRao » 17 Jan 2020 07:16

Eleven US Troops Were Injured in Jan. 8 Iran Missile Strike

Nearly one dozen American troops were wounded in Iran’s Jan. 8 missile attack on Iraq’s al-Asad air base. This week, they were medically evacuated to U.S. military hospitals in Kuwait and Landstuhl, Germany, to be treated for traumatic brain injury and to undergo further evaluation, several U.S. defense and military officials have confirmed to Defense One.

Senior military and Trump administration officials had said on Jan. 8 that 11 Iranian missiles had caused “no casualties, no friendly casualties, whether they are U.S., coalition, contractor, et cetera.”

In the past week, news organizations that were granted access to the base to film the damage and interview military personnel have reported that no Americans were killed, wounded, or “seriously injured.” But the New York Times reported on Monday that some personnel had been treated for concussions.

In a Jan. 16 statement, a spokesman for the U.S. military command in Baghdad said, “As previously stated, while no U.S. service members were killed in the Jan. 8 Iranian attack on Al Asad Air base, several were treated for concussion symptoms from the blast and are still being assessed.”

“Out of an abundance of caution, some service members were transported from Al Asad Air Base, Iraq to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany, others were sent to Camp Arifjan, Kuwait, for follow-on screening,” said Col. Myles Caggins, spokesman for Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve. “When deemed fit for duty, the service members are expected to return to Iraq following screening. The health and welfare of our personnel is a top priority and we will not discuss any individual’s medical status.”

A separate U.S. defense official speaking on background confirmed eleven Americans had been sent out of Iraq for treatment.

“As a standard procedure, all personnel in the vicinity of a blast are screened for traumatic brain injury, and if deemed appropriate, are transported to a higher level of care. At this time, eight individuals have been transported to Landstuhl, and three have been transported to Camp Arifjan,” said the official.

According to a senior U.S. defense official, “About a week after the attack some service members were still experiencing some symptoms of concussion.” The official expected more information would be released soon. “We only got wind of this in the last 24 hours.”

.............


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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 17 Jan 2020 08:56

^ US equivalent of Darka Butt and Shekhar Gupta. Trying to cause wars where many more will die, just to get their kicks. Clearly the military underplayed damage and casualties to calm things down, but these sh1ts have to go blabbering.
Wonder if they have read the novel:
All Quiet on the Western Front
?
Or listened to the song by Peter, Paul & Mary (made famous by Bob Dylan's rendition)
And how many deaths will it take 'fore he sees
That too many people have died?

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Y. Kanan » 17 Jan 2020 09:27

Vikas wrote:Shia Iran forgets that if it ever came to picking side, India will play neutral at best and if a gun is put on the head, India will be in the corner of USA/KSA/Israel and rightly so.


Speak for yourself. All I see is a bunch of desperate mental gymnastics on BR to justify horrible behavior by the US\Isreal\KSA. I see the US bullying Iran, Iraq, Syria, aiding Saudi atrocities in Yemen, backing Saudi\Wahabbi headchopper terrorists, and hurting India by artifically boosting oil prices (by taking Iranian and now also Iraqi oil off the market). I see Isreal backing ISIS and cruelly denying Syria the opportunity to have peace and rebuild itself. I see KSA invading Yemen after a popular revolt against Sunni\Wahabbi rule. Overall I see the worst parts of Islam (Sunni Takfiri\Wahabbi types) getting a huge boost while moderate Islam suffers air strikes and foreign backed terrorists. It's really all quite horrible and should have us up in arms. With allies like these, who needs enemies?

The US is all powerful and we are scared to death they might sanction us, or snub us in international forums, or conspire with our enemies. What everyone forgets is the US has done all these things to us. US perfidy has killed thousands, tens of thousands of our people. And here I see the prevailing sentiment is we join them.

How pathetic and cowardly are we? This is a question not a rant.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Vikas » 17 Jan 2020 12:04

Y. Kanan wrote:
Vikas wrote:Shia Iran forgets that if it ever came to picking side, India will play neutral at best and if a gun is put on the head, India will be in the corner of USA/KSA/Israel and rightly so.


Speak for yourself. ..snip..
It's really all quite horrible and should have us up in arms. With allies like these, who needs enemies?
while moderate Islam suffers
The US is all powerful and we are scared to death they might sanction us, or snub us in international forums, or conspire with our enemies. What everyone forgets is the US has done all these things to us. US perfidy has killed thousands, tens of thousands of our people. And here I see the prevailing sentiment is we join them.

How pathetic and cowardly are we? This is a question not a rant.


Kannan, The whole post sounded like a big rant though.
Isn't this what our resident commie fools want us to do ?
Moderate Islam ? Kidhar, kahan , kaun hain ye moderate log ?

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Kati » 17 Jan 2020 12:50

Vikas wrote:
Y. Kanan wrote:
Speak for yourself. ..snip..
It's really all quite horrible and should have us up in arms. With allies like these, who needs enemies?
while moderate Islam suffers
The US is all powerful and we are scared to death they might sanction us, or snub us in international forums, or conspire with our enemies. What everyone forgets is the US has done all these things to us. US perfidy has killed thousands, tens of thousands of our people. And here I see the prevailing sentiment is we join them.

How pathetic and cowardly are we? This is a question not a rant.


Kannan, The whole post sounded like a big rant though.
Isn't this what our resident commie fools want us to do ?
Moderate Islam ? Kidhar, kahan , kaun hain ye moderate log ?


Okay, change "moderate Islam" by "hospitable Islam"... and then Kannan-Saar's post gets my thumbs up.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Karthik S » 17 Jan 2020 13:05

Y. Kanan wrote:
Vikas wrote:Shia Iran forgets that if it ever came to picking side, India will play neutral at best and if a gun is put on the head, India will be in the corner of USA/KSA/Israel and rightly so.


Speak for yourself. All I see is a bunch of desperate mental gymnastics on BR to justify horrible behavior by the US\Isreal\KSA. I see the US bullying Iran, Iraq, Syria, aiding Saudi atrocities in Yemen, backing Saudi\Wahabbi headchopper terrorists, and hurting India by artifically boosting oil prices (by taking Iranian and now also Iraqi oil off the market). I see Isreal backing ISIS and cruelly denying Syria the opportunity to have peace and rebuild itself. I see KSA invading Yemen after a popular revolt against Sunni\Wahabbi rule. Overall I see the worst parts of Islam (Sunni Takfiri\Wahabbi types) getting a huge boost while moderate Islam suffers air strikes and foreign backed terrorists. It's really all quite horrible and should have us up in arms. With allies like these, who needs enemies?

The US is all powerful and we are scared to death they might sanction us, or snub us in international forums, or conspire with our enemies. What everyone forgets is the US has done all these things to us. US perfidy has killed thousands, tens of thousands of our people. And here I see the prevailing sentiment is we join them.

How pathetic and cowardly are we? This is a question not a rant.


To give a reply to your ranting question, we didn't go back on S-400 despite 'threat of sanctions', Jayshankar cancelled a meeting because it had you know who, although it's in the past still, they asked for Indian troops in Afg, but we didn't send. While I do agree with your assertions about losses we suffered all this while, who can forget 7th fleet in bay of bengal, (although I think we suffered more because of USSR's hold on nehru-indira govt and its policies contributing to hindu rate of growth, evils of socialism, raise of communism etc), saying India is cowardly etc is nothing but self flagellation.

Your weeping heart for "moderate islam", I understand you were in Kashmir this time 30 years ago, and it were the moderates that saved you, just like they saved so many pandits, am I right?

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 17 Jan 2020 13:25

<POOF>

Admin note: please stick to West Asia and not pisko commentary on individual posters. You are going off tangent for the second time in a week. No more informal warnings
Last edited by hnair on 17 Jan 2020 16:43, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Please stick to thread topic


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