2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
KL Dubey
BRFite
Posts: 792
Joined: 16 Dec 2016 22:34

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KL Dubey » 09 May 2020 09:00

Vamsee wrote: Since this index has 3 components, it is possible that a country may “compensate” low value in one of the 3 components with high values in other 2 components.


Ah! But this is fundamentally not possible to sustain in normal situations due to the inextricable correlation between all three components in any "normal" society.

It is only possible in countries/states which have a lopsided or somehow perverted set up, e.g. countries and states infected by communism, mail-order economy, or having nothing but oil wealth. In these places there are - for example - no jobs, incomes can be artificially inflated by remittances, literacy/education looks great only by the "babu" approach of counting years in school, or women are not included in the workforce...etc etc.

The HDI falsely makes these places "look good" while penalizing other places which may not have had a headstart but are developing in a more balanced and sustainable manner.

And worse, for the reasons I mentioned in previous post, the HDI keeps these places "looking good" for years even after they have fallen apart.

ricky_v
BRFite
Posts: 653
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ricky_v » 09 May 2020 09:07

Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image

ricky_v
BRFite
Posts: 653
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ricky_v » 09 May 2020 09:14

Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image

ricky_v
BRFite
Posts: 653
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ricky_v » 09 May 2020 09:19

Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image

Krita
BRFite
Posts: 174
Joined: 23 Jul 2009 13:33

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Krita » 09 May 2020 10:43

Krita wrote:Langoor ke haath mein Angoor, to define 303 seats and BJP. What a bunch of pusillanimous Jokers.
I am going to send them bangles via Amazon.

Govt asks Twitter to remove tweet by BJP MP Tejasvi Surya linking terrorists and Islam
timesnownews.com

https://www.timesnownews.com/amp/india/article/govt-asks-twitter-to-remove-tweet-by-bjp-mp-tejasvi-surya-linking-terrorists-and-islam/589051?



Thus, it appears that the list containing the tweets the removal of which was sought was not created by the elected representatives or Ministers of the Union Government but individuals who work as part of an empowered committee that works in tandem with the various agencies and creates these lists.



https://www.opindia.com/2020/05/union-central-government-tejasvi-surya-tweet-twitter-ministry-of-it/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Pakya and Ravishankar again.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 13356
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2020 10:54

KL Dubey - I already covered the question of the imperfect ness of HDI . You’re missing the point . I’m simply using it as a metric to track the evolution of states in one country . I deliberately avoided a multi country comparison and refused a request to do so, because I’d makes gaming the metric more a problem . By all means find a better metric and apply it to all Indian states over the past 30-40 years and report data from that here . Otherwise the argument doesn’t serve much purpose .

nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3579
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nam » 09 May 2020 14:04

Vamsee wrote:
since we are on HDI topic, I wrote a twitter thread on HDI few months ago. Reproducing it here with some edits. The only true wealth of nation is its high skilled citizens! That's why Germany & Japan were able to very quickly bounce back from devastating world war II where as we still remain in poverty despite escaping WW II.


This is the simple fact. We should focus on two simple aspect: providing cheap, high quality education to the entire population AND focus on production of goods that is required by the population.

Income, services, jobs, health, HDI etc will automatically flow from this two criteria.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 22490
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 09 May 2020 15:45

nam wrote:
Vamsee wrote:
since we are on HDI topic, I wrote a twitter thread on HDI few months ago. Reproducing it here with some edits. The only true wealth of nation is its high skilled citizens! That's why Germany & Japan were able to very quickly bounce back from devastating world war II where as we still remain in poverty despite escaping WW II.


This is the simple fact. We should focus on two simple aspect: providing cheap, high quality education to the entire population AND focus on production of goods that is required by the population.

Income, services, jobs, health, HDI etc will automatically flow from this two criteria.


the premise has been simplified to a very large extent and it has negated the marshall plan, the per capita investment in dollar terms in japan as well as germany, the money saved by these two in not maintaining a credible and expensive armed force because of the nuclear umbrella provided by the US and hence having the wherewithal to invest in "quality education"

for instance, we forget that in germany, they have had professional guilds for centuries and even today, it takes about 3-4 years for a kid out of school to apprentice as a butcher and even then he will only be able to work under another butcher as his assistant for many years.

Watch you tube to see how carefully and culturally, depending on the market, the meat is dressed and made ready for sale in many of these countries.

and here, all it takes is some callous kid, some bloodstained clothes, a sharp knife and some muttered AOAs whatever to hack the carcass into unidentifiable pieces which the customers happily buy.

Very few goat/sheep/pork/beef carcasses in India have a municipal health stamp and those will only be found in some shops in the main markets.

most shops illegally slaughter in their own little outlets, in the most unhygienic of conditions and without any health checks by the vet.

This is also the state of technical education and training in India. Some companies train at their expense and the guy then jumps ship by leveraging the training for higher wages in another company. This is an endemic problem today and one that I see all the time and companies simply do not have the money to rinse and repeat this expensive process indefinitely.

a company's needs are differentiated by product, process, and equipment and come what may the govt simply cannot produce workmen who are technically qualified to be unleashed on the shop floor right out of the training institute.

India is trying to get there but is stymied by reservations, quota, minority exemptions and caste equations and what not.

I guess that we will get there eventually, in the fullness of time.

BTW, more than a million Indians were directly involved in fighting during WWII and we were taxed like hell to pay for it. We contributed trillions in money and many million tons of food, steel, and other war materiels so your premise that the war passed us by is highly debatable.

The bengal famine was a direct result of this mismanaged war and millions died because of callous britshit policies in handling the bengal food crisis. This was a war crime.

for decades after WWII, the per capita investment in israel by the US was in the hundreds of dollars whereas in India it was in the mere tens of cents and India most certainly contributed much more, very much more than the jews did in terms of the outcome of the war.

we have cha cha neverwho to thank for this.

Just saying onlee.

arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3792
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby arshyam » 09 May 2020 16:05

^^ Now, ain't that the truth?

India was always a sideshow when it came to both the world wars, despite our not very voluntary, yet significant contribution, both in terms of men and materiel. A more charitable world would have at least acknowledged our efforts to end the wars in the Allied powers' favour, but the world ain't fair. It didn't help that our own government regarded most of the troops that fought in these wars with disdain, almost bordering on contempt. So post-independence generations never learnt about any of this, and ended up being in awe of Germany and Japan's post-war achievements, however significant they may be, but with an almost certain negative comparison with ourselves. Yet another reason for self-loathing, I suppose (a general statement, not applicable to Vamsee saar's post)

arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3792
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby arshyam » 09 May 2020 16:16

Btw, for once, auto-correct was on the money:

"Chacha Neverwho" instead of Nehru. Strangely appropriate :rotfl:

Never was Indian enough, yet who was instrumental in saddling us with strategic problems in all directions, starting with his own family.

Someone else can come up with a more pithy description, but the word is BRF dictionary worthy, methinks..

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 22490
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 09 May 2020 16:45

arshyam wrote:Btw, for once, auto-correct was on the money:

"Chacha Neverwho" instead of Nehru. Strangely appropriate :rotfl:

Never was Indian enough, yet who was instrumental in saddling us with strategic problems in all directions, starting with his own family.

Someone else can come up with a more pithy description, but the word is BRF dictionary worthy, methinks..


arshyam ji,

no auto correct, saar.

See some of my previous posts.

I claim copyleft onlee.

syam
BRFite
Posts: 749
Joined: 31 Jan 2017 00:13

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby syam » 09 May 2020 19:03

I noticed almost every publication on internet refers BJP as HIndu Nationalist Party. Hope Modiji reads these articles and realize what he represents and embrace what the world thinks of him.

darshan
BRFite
Posts: 1908
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 09 May 2020 20:10

Can't say that incompetent GJ CM doesn't deserve what gets thrown at him. Incompetent to even follow Yogi or reach out to him for guidance. Gotta give it to Congress for knowing how to spin everything and whip incompetent BJP leaders. BJP can't complain about bureaucracy being against them in a state ruled by BJP for two decades.

May be Rupani would finally come out and explain to public step by step how the virus was spread in GJ if BJP doesn't want to loose this state. Don't forget overlooked mafia networks Rupani.

Congress ups ante against ruling BJP in Gujarat as Covid cases surge
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... auAUN.html

darshan
BRFite
Posts: 1908
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 09 May 2020 20:46

Are there any good and reliable NGOs that work with gaushalas and accept donations from US?


Uttar Pradesh: Severed head of calf found amidst reports of stray cows going ‘missing’ from roads
http://www.opindia.com/2020/05/muzaffar ... r-pradesh/

IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7267
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby IndraD » 09 May 2020 21:05

Krita wrote:Langoor ke haath mein Angoor, to define 303 seats and BJP. What a bunch of pusillanimous Jokers.
I am going to send them bangles via Amazon.

Govt asks Twitter to remove tweet by BJP MP Tejasvi Surya linking terrorists and Islam
timesnownews.com

https://www.timesnownews.com/amp/india/article/govt-asks-twitter-to-remove-tweet-by-bjp-mp-tejasvi-surya-linking-terrorists-and-islam/589051?

this is not the only one
RB Prasad ministry is targeting Shefali Vaidya tweets https://twitter.com/shefvaidya/status/1 ... 31168?s=12
Medica crooks has been dismantled completely, now he is asking RW to care for their jobs before Namo https://twitter.com/RMCpost/status/1258 ... 10433?s=20

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 13356
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2020 21:28

arshyam wrote:^^ Now, ain't that the truth?

India was always a sideshow when it came to both the world wars, despite our not very voluntary, yet significant contribution, both in terms of men and materiel. A more charitable world would have at least acknowledged our efforts to end the wars in the Allied powers' favour, but the world ain't fair.

The world does not accord anyone charity. You grab what you consider yours, without seeking permission and daring anyone to stop you. Years ago, on some other western phorum, there was the usual talk about En Pee Tea and why India contravenes it and must shut down its weapons program - a strident Brit said so. I responded simply 'Or else what ?' It got him very hot and bothered and he ranted about how the UK can get the NATO involved. I responded that 'listen to me or I'll go tell daddy' isn't a particularly impressive threat once you're older than about 5. I got banned soon after, "for trolling"... Brits don't like being reminded that they're the little boy of the P5, even the French having some independence. Not much later Rakesh asked me to be a mod here. What to do onlee :P

Anyway, It's a mistake to lament lack of recognition. As you mentioned, India doesn't much care about its contribution to the world wars, and therefore cannot politically construct a coherent argument emphasizing its own contributions. We can blame others for not recognizing us, but the reality is that we have an uncomfortable relationship with our own participation in it.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 13356
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2020 21:43

Suraj wrote:KL Dubey - I already covered the question of the imperfect ness of HDI . You’re missing the point . I’m simply using it as a metric to track the evolution of states in one country . I deliberately avoided a multi country comparison and refused a request to do so, because I’d makes gaming the metric more a problem . By all means find a better metric and apply it to all Indian states over the past 30-40 years and report data from that here . Otherwise the argument doesn’t serve much purpose .

I wanted to say a little more about this for better explanatory context. The issue with nitpicking on the problems with HDI - and yes there are problems as with any index - is that the question of 'a better measure' is largely a statistical exercise that can go in the Math or Econ threads.

Merely invalidating a widely used (even by GOI) measure does not help the discussion. It is reality that HDI data is extensively available for Indian states and other nations, and I focused primarily on the time series rather than country to country comparisons. Fundamentally, Indian quality of life standards were so low that HDI gains are mostly 'real gains' and not 'gamed gains'.

I understand the argument about gaming. The root cause is that one state - despite all its warts - has been able to maintain HDI figures on part with central/eastern Europe, while vast swathes of the country struggled to get above sub-Saharan African level. There's probably no other entity with such a lopsided view of one state only, unless you're Chinese who sees Taiwan as part of China, comparing 'Taiwan state' to other provinces in China. Of course, in reality they are different countries.

So I get it - 'how can we use HDI ? Kerala is {insert whatever} despite high HDI, so HDI is useless'. Now get past that thinking and actually try to work with what we have instead of just quoting the most reflexive thought you can manage. In the real world we do not work with perfection. This is not like a school-level physics problem that begins with 'assume a perfectly frictionless surface...' .

Thanks to those posters who have posted very insightful comments and information charts. Others, please try to see the big picture here. The metric, for all its ills, is simply the best one with widely available time series data - the real story that is relevant to THIS thread - is that major changes are happening because over the past decade, multiple significant states that long were in low HDI category are now getting to near high HDI category, and it will change their long term politics, not necessarily for the better; just because Kerala has no rice bag politics doesn't stop its politics from being chronically moronic, for example.

KL Dubey
BRFite
Posts: 792
Joined: 16 Dec 2016 22:34

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KL Dubey » 10 May 2020 01:21

"Suraj" -

I don't think this is a meaningful way to look at it. It causes misplaced complacency in some areas and misplaced urgency in others.

Look at this graph of the HDI history of the world for last 30 years:

http://hdr.undp.org/en/data

Barring a few stray cases (either miraculous or catastrophic), every country essentially follows the same slope. All countries have basically improved their HDI by around 0.15-0.2 from where they were in 1990. Ranks can change a little here and there based on second and third decimal (ah yes, the HDI has no error bar/uncertainty).

Within India, the situation is exactly the same with the states (see the links you posted). Basically all states have increased their HDI by 0.15-0.2 from where they were in 1990.

In other words, nothing much "moves the HDI needle" away from "autopilot mode" unless there is some catastrophe or unlikely miracle. There is no meaningful discussion with a metric that tells you next to nothing. Its a classic "desk-bound babu" metric with no utility. I think it is just used by academics to play around with charts and tables. Is there any agency in India or the world which makes any major decisions based on HDI ?

What is more meaningful is:

Track GDP growth per capita, maybe adjust for inequality.

Track both the quality and quantity of the jobs that school and college graduates are being employed in within the country or state.

Track and quantify migration patterns between states.

This will reveal the true picture in every state. Some things may be be quite surprising.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 13356
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 10 May 2020 02:54

By all means - collect and report the data you prefer then . I’ve already suggested that twice now . It doesn’t matter as long as there’s historical time series data between states . If you just say Y is better than X but don’t make the effort to provide alternative data on that basis, then that is not helpful .

arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3792
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby arshyam » 10 May 2020 10:47

chetak wrote:
arshyam wrote:Btw, for once, auto-correct was on the money:

"Chacha Neverwho" instead of Nehru. Strangely appropriate :rotfl:

Never was Indian enough, yet who was instrumental in saddling us with strategic problems in all directions, starting with his own family.

Someone else can come up with a more pithy description, but the word is BRF dictionary worthy, methinks..


arshyam ji,

no auto correct, saar.

See some of my previous posts.

I claim copyleft onlee.

No problem saar - then you get to define the term with a 1-liner.. my suggestion was anyway a bit ponderous :mgreen:

darshan
BRFite
Posts: 1908
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 10 May 2020 19:44

While “No non-Muslim slaughterer” Halal is mainstream, police in Chennai arrest Jain Bakery owner for “No Muslim staffs” advertisement
https://www.opindia.com/2020/05/while-n ... rtisement/


Journalist Deepak Chaurasia threatened over reporting the Palghar Sadhu lynching and questioning Tablighi Jamaat chief Maulana Saad, files FIRs
https://www.opindia.com/2020/05/deepak- ... lana-saad/


Illegal Bangladeshi Immigrants Detected In Tamil Nadu Following Dispute Over Sharing Covid-19 Relief Material, State Police Let Them Go Free
https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/ille ... em-go-free

Neshant
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4850
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Neshant » 11 May 2020 07:31

India should also expand its maritime claims so far as the UN's Law of the Sea permits.

Hope the babuz are not asleep on the issue before the 20201 deadline passes.

There are literally thousands of islands within the Union Territory that have low lying continental shelves.

Map them by sonar and start making claims.

----------------------------------------------

Portugal plans to double its territory

(by making massive maritime claims to increase its national territory).


Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 19516
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 11 May 2020 09:22

Suraj wrote:By all means - collect and report the data you prefer then . I’ve already suggested that twice now . It doesn’t matter as long as there’s historical time series data between states . If you just say Y is better than X but don’t make the effort to provide alternative data on that basis, then that is not helpful .


Exactly. I dont see what is so hard about this concept. Pick another bunch of metrics if you are unhappy with x, justify them logically, provide the data.

If one disagrees with using HDI alone, in which case one should add more data to prove/disprove any additional hypothesis. At any rate, I found it interesting. Sometimes it helps to step back and see the big picture about development and how things *are* improving. A few decades back, the level of poverty was clearly far far worse and we should be glad we are on an upward trajectory.

Manish_Sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4550
Joined: 07 Sep 2009 16:17

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Manish_Sharma » 11 May 2020 12:00

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/why-cou ... e-to-blame


Why Couldn’t India Become A Manufacturing Behemoth? Our Bizarre Socialist Labour Laws Are To Blame 


| by Karan Bhasin
May 10, 2020, 12:26 pm |

Over the last couple of days, many states have announced bold factor market reforms such as labour reforms.

Some states have also undertaken substantial agricultural reforms such as Madhya Pradesh.

The common thing amongst these states is the fact that they’re all governed by BJP administrations.

It  would be naïve to think that COVID–19 pandemic can be dealt with by just the central government alone.

The economic fallout is going to be significant and comparable to the Great Depression.

This, therefore, means that we need a multi-staged policy response from the government and some of the long-awaited reforms have indeed been pending are land and labour reforms.

These are ideally supposed to be done at the state level, and therefore, by BJP governments finally taking a bold decision, they have revealed a larger strategy for economic revival over subsequent months which relies on higher investments, especially in manufacturing sector.

This also signals a shift from the Nehruvian-Socialism that has failed us for decades and perhaps, COVID–19 has finally started to dismantle the remains of the pre-1991 India growth model.

That being said, it is important to take a minute and acknowledge that every economist has over successive years advocated for a change in our land and labour regulations.

For instance, the Industrial Disputes Act required companies to seek permission before retrenchment of workers if the establishment had more than 300 employees.

This was subsequently lowered to 100 workers.

To not being able to fire people, irrespective of a change in business conditions, naturally meant that businesses would keep their number of employees at less than 100, or create a new firm for the 100th employee and every subsequent employee that was hired henceforth.

These laws and excessive regulations in the formal sector led to companies outsourcing work to informal enterprises which didn’t have to meet such compliances.

Consequently, India created a structure that incentivised informalisation of the economy and at the same time had a structure that encouraged companies to remain small.

This was also the essence of the chapter on dwarf firms in the Economic Survey.

Our structures that discouraged firms from getting large gradually led to a decline in our competitiveness even as other countries built mega-factories and huge global conglomerates.

With a large domestic consumer market like India, there was potential to have some of our key companies emerge as MNCs competing with the best in the world, but the reason why that didn’t happen was because our policies didn’t want companies to become big.

The laws and regulations that have been created were done to protect the dignity of labour.

The question is, were these norms successful in achieving the objective?

The answer is obviously ‘no’.

It is intuitive that informal workers are worse off with little to no job security and we know from our experience that these norms did result in greater informalisation.

Moreover, they prevented investments in India by large companies which would have helped us integrate further with the global value chains.

Consider this: While these norms were meant to protect those who were employed, they prevented investment which prevented the creation of job opportunities.

Therefore, while those in the formal sector may have benefited from these regulations, a large section of the population, especially those in the agricultural sector, continued to be in a state of disguised unemployment.

It shouldn’t be a surprise that India didn’t witness the kind of manufacturing revolution that some of the other emerging economies did.

The fact that some of these reforms have happened in land-locked regions such as UP and MP are also encouraging as our peninsular states had initiated some partial relaxation of these norms in the past and had some success in attracting industries.

Overall, the prospects of labour reforms come with one of the biggest corporate tax cuts in the world.

This, at a time when companies are looking at alternatives to China, is an excellent opportunity for India to seize the moment and several BJP ruled states have already started talking to some of these companies.

The interesting point here will be a politico-economic one.

That is, whether the Congress ruled states, or the other Opposition ruled states also start dismantling the Nehruvian Socialist model? If not, then, it becomes imperative for the BJP ruled states to be as aggressive as possible on some other reforms such as the new electricity Bill and a revised land acquisition amendment to name a few.

Success of these states in their transformation is critical not just for the overall economic recovery post COVID, but also for creating a new India Growth Model which can be replicated across other states.

If successful, then who knows, other developing and low-income countries may study (and try to emulate the same) for decades.

There’s a lot at stake here, and it’s important that we double down on reforms over the coming months.


syam
BRFite
Posts: 749
Joined: 31 Jan 2017 00:13

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby syam » 11 May 2020 12:19

BJP lost the plot. Modiji and Amit Shah are busy with big matters. And every second tier leader is busy giving interviews to congis. coupta's rag started way late compared to swarajya/opindia, but gets every big interviews from bjp leaders. None of us read the print.I bet bjp supporters also feel the same. what are these leaders trying to achieve by giving interviews to it? Don't they know which publication talks to their supporters?

Sachin
Webmaster BR
Posts: 7948
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Undisclosed

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 11 May 2020 13:21

syam wrote:BJP lost the plot. Modiji and Amit Shah are busy with big matters.

There is a limit to how much two individuals can do. The next capable people (like Yogi) are doing their best in states like UP. But beyond that many of the BJP MPs are just 'numbers' to get the absolute majority in Parliament. All craving for some media attention, or using the opportunity to further their own individual agendas. Take for example Rajeev Chandrasekhar MP, who is on the director board of a Malayalam news channel Asianet News. This news channel has been anti-BJP 100% and even resorted to false reporting. I don't know what has this man's contribution to BJP agenda. The next ministries which always seems to be on the defensive seems to be the Education & HRD and the Information & Broadcasting ministries. At times I even get a feeling that there is some 'super power' who allows Modi to run the show, provided that these to ministries have below average/poor leadership.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 22490
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 11 May 2020 14:16

Modi & pawar: their body language says it all



Image
Last edited by chetak on 11 May 2020 14:22, edited 1 time in total.

syam
BRFite
Posts: 749
Joined: 31 Jan 2017 00:13

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby syam » 11 May 2020 14:20

Sachin wrote:There is a limit to how much two individuals can do. The next capable people (like Yogi) are doing their best in states like UP. But beyond that many of the BJP MPs are just 'numbers' to get the absolute majority in Parliament. All craving for some media attention, or using the opportunity to further their own individual agendas. Take for example Rajeev Chandrasekhar MP, who is on the director board of a Malayalam news channel Asianet News. This news channel has been anti-BJP 100% and even resorted to false reporting. I don't know what has this man's contribution to BJP agenda. The next ministries which always seems to be on the defensive seems to be the Education & HRD and the Information & Broadcasting ministries. At times I even get a feeling that there is some 'super power' who allows Modi to run the show, provided that these to ministries have below average/poor leadership.

there is no 'super power' here. it's sheer incompetence of rest of bjp leaders. do you remember amhed bhai rajya shabha election? some how shah reduced the congis mla numbers and made him lose the seat. then ahmed bhai did his own thing and got some mla disqualified. at the time, rsp and his gang in delhi went to ec office and made fool of themselves. it was big epic fail. even shah knows these guys are useless. the problem with rw is they don't criticize these two bit dumbos. instead they target modiji directly. if rw can raise a big storm about these leaders, they will lose their ministries within a month. sadly, the supporters also less savvy when it comes to politics.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 22490
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 11 May 2020 14:32

the rise of this tv channel, both in its english and hindi avatars has deeply disturbed the existing congi/commie/naxal/lootyens power balance and upset the entire BIF cabal who have lost their domineering control over setting the narrative.

the evil cabal has to be broken before they break the republic channels and the effective spread of such other similar media networks.



Sudhir Suryawanshi@ss_suryawanshi·2h

In the Apex court hearing, it is clear now Maharashtra police is also investigating financial angle in Republic Editor in chief Arnab Goswami case. Police wants 2 know, reasons behind d meteoric rise of channel & owner. Govt may also hand over case to Economic Offense Wing ( EOW)

Sachin
Webmaster BR
Posts: 7948
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Undisclosed

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 11 May 2020 15:21

chetak wrote:the evil cabal has to be broken before they break the republic channels and the effective spread of such other similar media networks.

I am now pretty much sure that Republic TV would be thrown under the bus by the I&B ministry. Or rather they may work out a plan to quickly scuttle the channel. I have got a response on an RTI filed for knowing what happened on Media One channel in Kerala and its ban for 2 days. The response and the reality; clearly shows the capabilites of the ministry.

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1881
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Zynda » 11 May 2020 19:45

I've been hearing in BLR (which is a red zone) where small IT-Vity companies have completely flouted 33% employees strength rules. It seems like IT companies (my sample space have been a few small to medium engineering services companies) are not happy with the WFH productivity (i.e. they are not getting usual 10-11 hrs productivity) and thus are pressurizing employees to return to office. A few of them already have in-office employee strength >50% and anybody who insists on WFH is being threatened with being replaced. Again, these companies don't have the infrastructure to disinfect premises or the equipment (desks, PCs etc.) and I guess it is the employees responsibility to disinfect their vicinity.

I know GoI has authorized companies to do WFH till July 31st but I dunno if GoI provides rights to the employees to avail WFH option (where they exist) when the employer insists on being in-office.

KLNMurthy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4099
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 13:06

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KLNMurthy » 11 May 2020 20:10

syam wrote:
Sachin wrote:There is a limit to how much two individuals can do. The next capable people (like Yogi) are doing their best in states like UP. But beyond that many of the BJP MPs are just 'numbers' to get the absolute majority in Parliament. All craving for some media attention, or using the opportunity to further their own individual agendas. Take for example Rajeev Chandrasekhar MP, who is on the director board of a Malayalam news channel Asianet News. This news channel has been anti-BJP 100% and even resorted to false reporting. I don't know what has this man's contribution to BJP agenda. The next ministries which always seems to be on the defensive seems to be the Education & HRD and the Information & Broadcasting ministries. At times I even get a feeling that there is some 'super power' who allows Modi to run the show, provided that these to ministries have below average/poor leadership.

there is no 'super power' here. it's sheer incompetence of rest of bjp leaders. do you remember amhed bhai rajya shabha election? some how shah reduced the congis mla numbers and made him lose the seat. then ahmed bhai did his own thing and got some mla disqualified. at the time, rsp and his gang in delhi went to ec office and made fool of themselves. it was big epic fail. even shah knows these guys are useless. the problem with rw is they don't criticize these two bit dumbos. instead they target modiji directly. if rw can raise a big storm about these leaders, they will lose their ministries within a month. sadly, the supporters also less savvy when it comes to politics.


+1

We tend to forget that most people, BJP or other, don’t have, and don’t cultivate the kind of visionary and systematic thinking that is required for the fight. BRF is a standout in this regard, and we aren’t even that good. At best we are like the 1960s and 70s Indian cricket team, with some brilliant individual performances, but overall, falling well short of mediocrity.

Good news is that life & politics are not cricket, so, that sub-mediocrity isn’t necessarily an insurmountable obstacle—Lenin conquered Russia with only a relative handful of dedicated Bolsheviks, we should remind ourselves of that.

suryag
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3628
Joined: 11 Jan 2009 00:14

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby suryag » 11 May 2020 20:15

BTW, what is the game plan on the temperature update of POK areas. Now that they have added it, no one in the future can take it out, thats the good part however, where next from here ? May be only the quartet of MARD know the plans(R=Rawat)

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 13356
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 11 May 2020 21:00

syam wrote:there is no 'super power' here. it's sheer incompetence of rest of bjp leaders. do you remember amhed bhai rajya shabha election? some how shah reduced the congis mla numbers and made him lose the seat. then ahmed bhai did his own thing and got some mla disqualified. at the time, rsp and his gang in delhi went to ec office and made fool of themselves. it was big epic fail. even shah knows these guys are useless. the problem with rw is they don't criticize these two bit dumbos. instead they target modiji directly. if rw can raise a big storm about these leaders, they will lose their ministries within a month. sadly, the supporters also less savvy when it comes to politics.

There's no information in wailing 'BJP is useless onlee'. They were useless in 2015, 2010, 2005, all according to this forum. In fact they've been continuously useless for the entire existence of politics threads on this forum regardless of how many seats they have. You're not telling us anything new, and wailing about it here on this forum isn't much use. I mean what's to be said ? 'Yes yes I agree, let's all give up, shut the thread and go home' ? Except for its uppermost echelons, the BJP has been generally consistently weak at media relations. Live with it.

What's more, even this thread gives the MSM plenty of eyeballs and clicks, each of which gives them $$. Why complain when all these so called bad MSM sites get much more clicks from BRF than even Swarajyamag or OpIndia does ? I admire the MSM's tenacity to keep on its agenda despite the fact that its political backers have been gutted of their power. The INC's political state between 2014-2024 is orders of magnitude weaker than the BJP's from 2004-2014, and yet the MSM has figured out how to work its way into the woodwork.

It would be more worthwhile to put aside emotions, take inspiration from their tenacity, and understand how they function. The media's best opponent is not the state, it's the people. The state taking on the media never makes for good optics, but the people treating them with open scorn does.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 22490
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 11 May 2020 21:04

chetak wrote:
Rsatchi wrote:^^^
'At each stop he ( meaning Khalilzad), will urge support for immediate reduction in violence, yada yada'
so In Delhi will he ask us to stop hitting Pakis???
What reduction in violence can we offer???
And later he is going to Slumbad!!!
I think Pakis want Khan to ask Namo to give them breathing space and not keep the LOC hot!!!
Pretty sure there is some serious things going on at the border.
And Baba Banaras is off line to give any second hand tidbits!!! as well.



zalmay Khalilzad is a pashtun snake oil salesman whom no one trusts and is an ameriki citizen.

be interesting to see what he is peddling this time around.

for sure, paki matters concerning India are mixed up somewhere in all this.

probably conveying trump sab's aadesh to Modi to go easy on niazi.


the taliban is very keen to "make friends" with India so that they continue their free ride on infrastructure, hospitals. power stations, food aid in millions of tons of free food grains and all such aid and more can continue unhindered and what not.

these talibani creeps are banking on age old Hindu gullibility for the free ride to continue and they have pressured the amerikis to 'talk" to India.

and in pursuit of that very glib, slick and necessary requirement to buy the taliban, the amerikis have unleashed zalmay Khalilzad so that he may persuade Modi to gently lay down India's head on the chopping block and the taliban hands in India's pockets.

so, the amerikis have simply washed their hands of India and its concerns in afghanistan, indeed as they have done right from the very beginning.

what's next

a priority request by trump himself, for millions of doses of covid vaccines or we face more threats.


India should talk directly to Taliban, says U.S. Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad


MAY 08, 2020

India should discuss its concerns on terrorism directly with the Taliban, said U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad, adding that he had discussed how India could play a “more active role” in the Afghan reconciliation process during his talks in Delhi on Thursday.

“India is an important force in Afghanistan and it would be appropriate for that [India-Taliban] engagement to take place,” Mr. Khalilzad told The Hindu in an exclusive interview.

The envoy said India had a “significant role” in Afghanistan’s development, but paradoxically, doesn’t play a role in the international peace efforts. “India and Afghanistan have historic ties, and I believe that dialogue between India and the Taliban is important, and it would be important that issues of concern like this [terrorism] are raised directly,” he added.

This is the first time the U.S. has publicly suggested an engagement between India and the Taliban. New Delhi, that still considers the Taliban a terror group allied to Pakistan, has thus far distanced itself from any talks.

During their meeting on Thursday, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval had raised concerns over increasing violence in Afghanistan and the need to protect minorities including Afghan Sikhs and Hindus.

Mr. Khalilzad, the architect of the U.S.-Taliban agreement, travelled to Doha, Delhi and Islamabad, in an effort to iron out an impasse in the agreement over the release of prisoners and intra-Afghan negotiations. While recognising concerns over the Doha agreement, he told The Hindu that there “was no alternative” to it and hoped that India would engage “all forces” in Afghanistan, including the Taliban.

Ambar
BRFite
Posts: 1377
Joined: 12 Jun 2010 09:56
Location: Weak meek unkil Sam!

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 11 May 2020 21:22

syam wrote:
Sachin wrote:There is a limit to how much two individuals can do. The next capable people (like Yogi) are doing their best in states like UP. But beyond that many of the BJP MPs are just 'numbers' to get the absolute majority in Parliament. All craving for some media attention, or using the opportunity to further their own individual agendas. Take for example Rajeev Chandrasekhar MP, who is on the director board of a Malayalam news channel Asianet News. This news channel has been anti-BJP 100% and even resorted to false reporting. I don't know what has this man's contribution to BJP agenda. The next ministries which always seems to be on the defensive seems to be the Education & HRD and the Information & Broadcasting ministries. At times I even get a feeling that there is some 'super power' who allows Modi to run the show, provided that these to ministries have below average/poor leadership.

there is no 'super power' here. it's sheer incompetence of rest of bjp leaders. do you remember amhed bhai rajya shabha election? some how shah reduced the congis mla numbers and made him lose the seat. then ahmed bhai did his own thing and got some mla disqualified. at the time, rsp and his gang in delhi went to ec office and made fool of themselves. it was big epic fail. even shah knows these guys are useless. the problem with rw is they don't criticize these two bit dumbos. instead they target modiji directly. if rw can raise a big storm about these leaders, they will lose their ministries within a month. sadly, the supporters also less savvy when it comes to politics.


If you look at the opposition they too have plenty of duds running into each other like headless chicken ! The difference between islamist-leftists and the nationalists is that the former dont constantly second guess their own but the later always do.

How about we list the names of technocrats, MPs, Rajya Sabha members from NDA who are not only driven by nationalistic ideology but also political savvy to carry the purpose forward ? I propose 1. Tejaswi Surya , Karnataka MP, from BJP 2. Mohandas Pai - the former Infosys CFO 3. Himanta Biswa Sarma, Assam MLA, Syed Akbaruddin, India's former Permanent Secretary to the UN..lets add to the list.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 22490
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 11 May 2020 21:50

Abdul Mateen Imran@AbdulMateenImr1
#Taliban's Suhail Shaheen said, "Based on our national interest& mutual respect, we would like to have positive relations with neighbouring countries including #India&welcome their contribution and cooperation in the reconstruction of future Afghanistan."


https://dnaindia.com/india/report-taliban-wants-positive-relationship-with-india-welcomes-new-delhi-s-contribution-in-afghanistan-2824213/amp?__twitter_impression=true

3:47 AM · May 10, 2020

syam
BRFite
Posts: 749
Joined: 31 Jan 2017 00:13

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby syam » 11 May 2020 23:04

Instant karma, isn't it? till last month, I was defending bjp. thank god I never been abusive to 'rw'.

Suraj ji, getting few clicks from brf is not same as getting health minister interview amid health crisis. I simply expressed my displeasure about it.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 13356
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 11 May 2020 23:11

syam wrote:I simply expressed my displeasure about it.

It's pointless to do so here, is my point. As you just said, whatever BRF does is different from what Health Minister does, so complain directly instead of complaining here where no one in the Health Ministry or rest of Government is going to see it and mods have to clean up when posters whine.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 22490
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 12 May 2020 01:58

Image


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 31 guests