India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[pankajs]

...

Plus, I will also repeated what I had written before i.e. IFFF the matter of Chinese not vacating Galwan has reached Modi BEFORE the clash, he would have ordered the IA to back off and let the Chinese be on PP-14 and preferred a negotiated settlement as is happening @ Pangang Tso.

...

How exactly do you know what Modi would have done in that scenario to be able to say this repeatedly with so much certainty?

a. What happened at Pangang Tso and Hot Springs for which just today I posted someone's satellite image analysis. In both cases, the Chinese crossed the Indian LAC and squatted. They have completely withdrawn to their side at Hot springs following a negotiated settlement. They are still on India side of LAC at Pangang Tso. IA/GoI/Modi has let them be pending negotiated settlement.

b. What happened following the Galwan clash? AFTER having driven the Chinese to their side of the LCA, IA/Modi not only pulled back from PP-14 but also allowed the Chinese to re-occupy it! The Chinese finally vacated PP-14 after a negotiated settlement. I don't think the soldiers would have vacated PP-14, for which their CO laid down his life, on their own.

The pattern is unmistakable.

From the rest of your post (which I didn't quote) it seems that you believe that Modi had a weak and insincere "make in India" policy, along with an appeasement policy for China. And the one incident of Chinese soldiers attacking in Galwan and Indian soldiers fighting back turned both things around 180 degrees, just like that, practically overnight and Modi just went along with the flow.

Do GoI policies--economic, defense, and national security in general, work like that?

In hindsight, Absolutely.

Modi had multiple levers to push the Chinese without poking them at the border or any of their core issues like Taiwan or Tibet. He could have moved on Trade or "Make in India" but he did not do much. He did not have to cut off all trade in one shot or emulate Mao's "Make in China" effort but he could have started slow and kept adding industry after industry. In 6 years we would have been somewhere on "Atmanirbhar bharat". Instead we don't have much to show for "Make in India" and a new rainbow to chase.

Modi and the folks around him kept repeating "No shot has been fired on Indo-China border in the last xy years" like a mantara. Did anyone hear Chinese repeat that formulation with as much gusto as GOI? When one has to stoop so low in search for positives in relationship, understand that we are in an appeasement mode.

Coming to the last point about 180 degree turn just based on one incident. Again, one just has to observe his moves after the Galwan clash. He imposed physical inspection on ALL Chinese imports in one shot! Also banned 59 Chinese apps in one shot!

Wallah ... that is our clue. Basically he banned slowed ALL Chinese imports, both essential and non-essential in one shot. Also, what 59 apps in one day became national security risk that they did not pose one month back? This across the board action without nuance betrays anger. But anger at what? IIRC, Media contacts where reporting that the PM is "very angry" at being back stabbed. Now that raised a lot of further question that could be explore if one had the time and inclination.

GOI's economic, etc policies CAN work like that when driven by a strong PM. The above is a proof of that. Btw, Are we still in "very slow" physical inspection mode for ALL Chinese goods? Would be interesting to understand how it is being implemented on the ground because it has been long since I heard any importer/exporter complain via media.

[Leonard]

Those "TUNNEL's" images posted earlier are supposed to be stocking TEL transporters carrying SHARF stuff ..

Any visibility 24 x 7 of targeting/launch protocol's -- should initiate BRAHMOS launch ??

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/i ... 2020-07-13

Any idea's on time line ? Any stats for Chin's ART missile exercise protocols ?

Launch Command Recd T0

TEL's move out (T0 + T1) ?? 10-15 KM tunnels

TEL's in LAUNCH POS ( T0 + T1 + T2) ??

TEL's LAUNCHED (T0 + T1 + T2 + T3) ??

How much of a window do we have to do pre-emptive strike ? -- These guys are 250 KM away from Depsang -- which seems their primary target at the moment.

[ramana]

Pankaj's

The article talks about creating localized paramilitary to man the border with China and to conduct more frequent patrols. Definitely not making it a heavy army deployment like LoC.

Deploying a warfighting force on border duty will wear it down and degrade its capabilities, not to say the cost involved. The cost of maintaining a company of army infantry compared to paramilitary is very different.

Please post the recommendation on raising more scout companies.
Thanks. I could not copy-paste it.

[Varoon Shekhar]

Isn't the area between fnger 4-finger 8 a 'grey area'( thought rightly claimed by India) that India hasn't administered for 60 years? Both countries patrolled this area, China up to finger 2, and India up to finger 8. What changed is that China moved in settlements up to finger 4, so that India could no longer patrol up to finger 8.

[williams]

Isn't the area between fnger 4-finger 8 a 'grey area'( thought rightly claimed by India) that India hasn't administered for 60 years? Both countries patrolled this area, China up to finger 2, and India up to finger 8. What changed is that China moved in settlements up to finger 4, so that India could no longer patrol up to finger 8.

I think the finger 4 area is going to be a major point of contention now. There are reports of artillery deployment in finger 6. So the choice is going to be either accept the Chinese fait accompli or push them back by force.

[SSridhar]

One of the points discussed in a recent think tank meeting was whether the next Ex. Malabar could take place in Indo-China Sea. I prefer near Luzon Straits.

Why not Andaman Sea, near Coco islands?

Many reasons, schinnas. Mostly because, that's where all the action currently is. PLAN is deploying its a/c carriers Liaoning & Shandong steaming across Taiwan Straits. They just conducted an exercise near Paracells. In August 2020, PLA has planned to conduct a big military exercise that would simulate occupation of Taiwan’s Pratas islands, south of Taiwan. The US INDO-PACOM's CVNs Nimitz & Theodore Roosevelt are around. One or both of them can be part of Ex. Malabar too. If the military alliance of the Quad takes shape, IN will have to join FONOPS. A good start therefore. Besides, why bring the focus here?

[williams]

Some good info from Nitin Gokhale on IA tabletop exercise in 2018.

https://stratnewsglobal.com/how-lessons ... ese-moves/

It had concluded that China would indulge in ‘hit and run’ tactics against India to test its own forces and also map India’s response to small-, medium- and large-scale exercises-cum-mobilisations and that the PLA would apply pressure at multiple points to try and push the envelope. And repeat the sequence in a year or two.

Another important finding of the 2018 exercise (and a couple of similar ones in earlier years), was that the Chinese would employ these tactics—deploy, raise the temperature and then withdraw after prolonged talks—at least twice in different locations (Ladakh this year, maybe opposite Arunachal Pradesh the next), spread over a period of three-four years and eventually launch a massive attack across the entire Himalayan frontier to settle the border once and for all.

Indian military planners have also anticipated the Chinese strategy of ‘mobilise-deploy-withdraw’ as a ruse to force India to commit forces permanently in operational locations close to the LAC and raise cost. “Today it is Ladakh, next year it could be Barahoti area (in Uttarakhand), and Arunachal Pradesh thereafter. After every mobilisation, if we permanently locate additional forces in forward areas, the PLA would be most happy. That is the mistake we will not commit,” a senior military planner revealed.

[arshyam]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 950740.cms
India proposes to build road in Bhutan’s ‘Yeti territory’ which China claimed recently

NEW DELHI: India has proposed to build a road in Bhutan’s ‘Yeti territory’ — which China claimed recently — enabling New Delhi to quickly access Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh, which borders China.

The road, which has strategic significance, will reduce the distance between Guwahati and Tawang by 150 kilometres, ET has learnt.

This will enable India to deploy troops faster to respond to any military moves by China, not only across Tawang, but also towards the eastern region of Bhutan.

This is what seems to have triggered the latest Chinese claim in Bhutan.

I think this is more our reaction (along with Bhutan) for the egregious Chinese claim. That claim was perhaps prompted by our road building near the Indo-Bhutan border along the Sakteng wildlife sanctuary. This road, fully on our territory, would provide an alternative route between Tezpur and Tawang bypassing Se La. As part of this project, there is also a spur connecting Se La to the Bhutan border itself. Source is one of the recent talks given by Nitin Gokhale on his youtube channel.

[SSridhar]

Those "TUNNEL's" images posted earlier are supposed to be stocking TEL transporters carrying SHARF stuff ..

About a decade back, PLA built similar tunnels in Balawaristan and speculation at that time was these were meant for their missiles.

[arshyam]

b. What happened following the Galwan clash? AFTER having driven the Chinese to their side of the LCA, IA/Modi not only pulled back from PP-14 but also allowed the Chinese to re-occupy it! The Chinese finally vacated PP-14 after a negotiated settlement. I don't think the soldiers would have vacated PP-14, for which their CO laid down his life, on their own.

Do we authoritatively know where PP-14 is? For a long time, forum knowledge was assuming it to be the triangle area where the Galwan river sharply turns west, and there were lots of twitter chatter about 'chinese' construction in that area (lone dissenter being Nitin Gokhale) that now appears to be our own, including a helipad. It was also revealed (again, not authoritatively) that the LAC itself is not where Google shows it (crossing the triangle area itself), but a good km or so south-east, with PP-14 somewhere in the vicinity. Then there were multiple versions of the new south-eastern location where the LAC crossed the Galwan, with our Shukla-ji marking it in a different place everyday depending on his daily mood or quality of his breakfast.

My point is, we don't have authoritative information to assume what you said above the Chinese occupying PP-14. If you have any from the public domain, please do share.

[SSridhar]

A more pertinent question is why would they want to do so.

Pak has been propped by - at a cost of Billions of $ that will have to be written off, so that the Pak army does the dying against India, instead of the PLA. I don't see China sending large army formations into Pak, to get at India. Similarly, the Pak submarine fleet is basically China outsourcing most of the Navy war in the Arabian sea to Pakistan.

So true. I had posted the below in another discussion thread a few days back.

Pakistan has to pay back $37 billion to both bilateral and multilateral creditors over the IMF programme period, 2019-22. It has USD16B in reserves as of today with no prospects at all of this increasing in years to come! Out of the total repayment, Pakistan will have to pay back $14.7 billion to China as repayment of bilateral and commercial debt during this period. In the current fiscal year 2019-20, total external debt servicing will be $14.9 billion (or 62 percent of exports earning).

Pakistan has been pressing China for not only more loans but also rescheduling of repayments. The Pakistani President urgently went to China in March, at the peak of Covid scare, in order to plead for these concessions. In May this year, Pakistan requested China to kindly reschedule payment of USD 30B over the next 20 years instead of 10 years ! Pakistan is requesting other 11 bilateral lenders to similarly ease its debt burden. Those who know Pakistan know that Pakistan has absolutely no intention of repaying these debts.

So, it begs one’s incredulity when one sees reports that Pakistan is to get from China eight Yuan-class diesel-electric submarines with AIP, four Type-054A multi-role stealth frigates and other naval platforms and weapons from China under deals worth over $7 billion.

Pakistan will never be able to repay this loan, in the light of the above precarious financial position and state of its economy. I am certain this will have to be a write-off from China because Chinese aim is to keep the Indian Navy under check. China knows this well too. It is a measure of how much inimical China is towards us. China relegates checkmating of India to Pakistan.

[arshyam]

Why not Andaman Sea, near Coco islands?

Many reasons, schinnas. Mostly because, that's where all the action currently is. PLAN is deploying its a/c carriers Liaoning & Shandong steaming across Taiwan Straits. They just conducted an exercise near Paracells. In August 2020, PLA has planned to conduct a big military exercise that would simulate occupation of Taiwan’s Pratas islands, south of Taiwan. The US INDO-PACOM's CVNs Nimitz & Theodore Roosevelt are around. One or both of them can be part of Ex. Malabar too. If the military alliance of the Quad takes shape, IN will have to join FONOPS. A good start therefore. Besides, why bring the focus here?

This is a good idea, actually. While we change our posture to some extent from being defensive within our area of operations, the US and Japan could also send similar signals w.r.t. Senkaku, protecting Taiwan, reiterating the recent US announcement about Chinese claims to the nine-dash line, free and open waterways, the new Hong Kong law, etc. So in that sense, there is something for everybody - even for Australia, which can openly signal its intention to not be pushed around by Chinese. If it joins, that is.

[williams]

b. What happened following the Galwan clash? AFTER having driven the Chinese to their side of the LCA, IA/Modi not only pulled back from PP-14 but also allowed the Chinese to re-occupy it! The Chinese finally vacated PP-14 after a negotiated settlement. I don't think the soldiers would have vacated PP-14, for which their CO laid down his life, on their own.

Do we authoritatively know where PP-14 is? For a long time, forum knowledge was assuming it to be the triangle area where the Galwan river sharply turns west, and there were lots of twitter chatter about 'chinese' construction in that area (lone dissenter being Nitin Gokhale) that now appears to be our own, including a helipad. It was also revealed (again, not authoritatively) that the LAC itself is not where Google shows it (crossing the triangle area itself), but a good km or so south-east, with PP-14 somewhere in the vicinity. Then there were multiple versions of the new south-eastern location where the LAC crossed the Galwan, with our Shukla-ji marking it in a different place everyday depending on his daily mood or quality of his breakfast.

My point is, we don't have authoritative information to assume what you said above the Chinese occupying PP-14. If you have any from the public domain, please do share.

Here is Gen VK Singh saying exactly that the triangular area is PP14. I guess that is authoritative enough since he is part of GoI and BTW he used google earth to explain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zDnij2J1ZY

[SSridhar]

Do we authoritatively know where PP-14 is? For a long time, forum knowledge was assuming it to be the triangle area where the Galwan river sharply turns west, and there were lots of twitter chatter about 'chinese' construction in that area (lone dissenter being Nitin Gokhale) that now appears to be our own, including a helipad.

I request everyone to see this discussion carried by Swatantra TV between Lt. Gen. S.L. Narasimhan [Retd], Currently Member, National Security Advisory Board (had commanded a Corps along China border, been India's Defence Attache in Beijing and also member of India-China JWG, currently heads The Centre for Contemporary Studies of China, a think-tank affiliated with MEA) and Commodore. R. Seshadri Vasan. Indian Navy [Retd] (Ex Commander INS Rajali, Commander ICG, Eastern Command and Director, Chennai Centre for China Studies)

[Manish_Sharma]

Those "TUNNEL's" images posted earlier are supposed to be stocking TEL transporters carrying SHARF stuff ..

Any visibility 24 x 7 of targeting/launch protocol's -- should initiate BRAHMOS launch ??

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/i ... 2020-07-13

Any idea's on time line ? Any stats for Chin's ART missile exercise protocols ?

How much of a window do we have to do pre-emptive strike ? -- These guys are 250 KM away from Depsang -- which seems their primary target at the moment.

I read the article but couldn't find which type of missiles they're hiding in the tunnels? The article says 24 missiles but doesn't say which type of missile.

Do we have Prahar/Pragati deployed anywhere?

[samirdiw]

Some good info from Nitin Gokhale on IA tabletop exercise in 2018.

https://stratnewsglobal.com/how-lessons ... ese-moves/

It had concluded that China would indulge in ‘hit and run’ tactics against India to test its own forces and also map India’s response to small-, medium- and large-scale exercises-cum-mobilisations and that the PLA would apply pressure at multiple points to try and push the envelope. And repeat the sequence in a year or two.

Another important finding of the 2018 exercise (and a couple of similar ones in earlier years), was that the Chinese would employ these tactics—deploy, raise the temperature and then withdraw after prolonged talks—at least twice in different locations (Ladakh this year, maybe opposite Arunachal Pradesh the next), spread over a period of three-four years and eventually launch a massive attack across the entire Himalayan frontier to settle the border once and for all.

Indian military planners have also anticipated the Chinese strategy of ‘mobilise-deploy-withdraw’ as a ruse to force India to commit forces permanently in operational locations close to the LAC and raise cost. “Today it is Ladakh, next year it could be Barahoti area (in Uttarakhand), and Arunachal Pradesh thereafter. After every mobilisation, if we permanently locate additional forces in forward areas, the PLA would be most happy. That is the mistake we will not commit,” a senior military planner revealed.

This is only possible due to our fearfullness (yes) to attack first. Otherwise having our troops close to the border would be good if we plan to attack. So Chinese are making a mistake but we convert that to a brilliant move (like in chess) due to our unwillingness to take the tricky but right move (attack first when conditions are right).

[saumitra_j]

This is only possible due to our fearfullness (yes) to attack first. Otherwise having our troops close to the border would be good if we plan to attack. So Chinese are making a mistake but we convert that to a brilliant move (like in chess) due to our unwillingness to take the tricky but right move (attack first when conditions are right).

With all due respect sir, no sensible PM of India would "attack" first and start a war which he/she cannot control. I don't know why people think we are ready to attack first and consolidate without any consequences. For a country that has 80 crore people being given free grain at this point in time,I don't think the PM of the country would be thinking about starting a war as an option. We will avoid all war not because we are pacifists but simply because we cannot afford it. We are barely able to afford what we can defend.

When we become first world country, then we can talk about starting a war etc. At this point in time, that option IMHO is not there, unless there is an existential threat to the nation. All this Chankian thought on war completely ignores the fact that we are a developing country that needs to make sure its citizens get good health/education and enough to eat first and a much higher quality of life. Until that happens, we will always be on the defensive unless there is an existential threat.

[ramana]

US is stuck in a long war now in its 30th year. Started with Desert Storm. Five Presidents. Three of them with two terms.

Think before posting nonsense.

[KLNMurthy]

Do we authoritatively know where PP-14 is? For a long time, forum knowledge was assuming it to be the triangle area where the Galwan river sharply turns west, and there were lots of twitter chatter about 'chinese' construction in that area (lone dissenter being Nitin Gokhale) that now appears to be our own, including a helipad.

I request everyone to see this discussion carried by Swatantra TV between Lt. Gen. S.L. Narasimhan [Retd], Currently Member, National Security Advisory Board (had commanded a Corps along China border, been India's Defence Attache in Beijing and also member of India-China JWG, currently heads The Centre for Contemporary Studies of China, a think-tank affiliated with MEA) and Commodore. R. Seshadri Vasan. Indian Navy [Retd] (Ex Commander INS Rajali, Commander ICG, Eastern Command and Director, Chennai Centre for China Studies)

I watched it. My takeaways:

Broadly both Gen. N and Cdre. W agreed on China’s larger goals and outlook, more of less what we have seen on BRF.

Gen. N is a Chinese speaker, Cdre. W is not.

N and W had somewhat different perspectives about India’s actions and options. N advocated caution keeping in view our capabilities and our mercantile populace’s questionable ability to sustain economic warfare etc. whereas W was in favor of making a strong push to brave the economic costs and decouple fast. Neither was for aggressive military action by India.

What I might new information re facts on the ground (mainly from N)

- disengagement process is slow and deliberate. In every case in the past (since maybe the Rajiv deal) we have got Chinese to restore status quo ante.

- verification process is adequate to keep Chinese to their agreement re LAC.

- media Reports of Pakistani military movement in GB are lies.

- We stick to the old Simla pact with China, though China doesn’t abide by it, because its terms are advantageous to us.

- China did not instigate Nepal’s territorial claims, it was due to Oli’s compulsions, though China will take advantage of it.

- To understand China focus on what they do, not what they say.

- Chinese have respect for IN

- Indian military will get the job done in borders defense, no matter what.

[Philip]

V.good analysis in the Hindu by Antara Singh. Researcher at the Delhi Policy Group.Sudied at Tsinghua Univ.PRC, Chinese Language Fellow at the National Central Univ. Taiwan.
She says we must study what the Chinese top Indian watchers are saying to understand their motives.

Xcpts:
1.No accident.
SIIS ( Shanghai Inst. for Intl.Studies).
An inevitable result of India's long standing strategy on the border ,"from Doklam to Kashmir,India's unending infra.arms race".
(If so,then to me it betrays the PRC's deep insecurity about holding onto Tibet,if India ups the ante.)
They say" Beijing was fed up and wanted to teach India a lesson"
Reasons.No great Sino- Indian relations in prospect,we are almost a US ally.To these PRC hardliners,China must reassess India from not being its main strat. challenge.It must show strong will and determination to deter its adversaries on its eastern front,by being tough with India. Also resolving the China- US problem bh first " breaking its arms and legs.India being one of the " limbs "of the US.

2.Handling a resurgent India.
Dealing with India by the "3 Nos":
"No weakness,no concession and no defensive defence."
The PRC must take all opportunities to " take down " India,hit hard whenever possible. It will produce the same effects as in '62.India will buckle down to PRC diktat. A weak India succumbing to PRC pressure. A well-known Delhi analyst has told me that it has been " total surrender" so far from our side. That is debatable but from inside knowledge.
Some sections of PRC strat. thinkers want the PRC " to destabilise the ENTIRE border region,fromthe McMahon line in the east to Aksai Chin in the west,taking the initiative to attack and seize territory from our part of Kashmir too.Weaken us inter nally by more support to Maoists,Naga separatists and Kashmiris. This willkeepus under control and force us to station huge forces on the LAC, diverting our attention from the IOR.
Part 2 later.

[pankajs]

^^
Summaries like the above should be posted with the links to the original unless it is from a very shady source.

[jagga]

^^++
Article worth reading
The standoff and China’s India policy dilemma

[yensoy]

V.good analysis in the Hindu by Antara Singh. Researcher at the Delhi Policy Group.Sudied at Tsinghua Univ.PRC, Chinese Language Fellow at the National Central Univ. Taiwan.
...A weak India succumbing to PRC pressure. A well-known Delhi analyst has told me that it has been " total surrender" so far from our side. That is debatable but from inside knowledge.

Is the above your opinion/words or the authors? Please be very clear here. If you are implying a "total surrender" based on some unknown analyst, I think you are on very thin ice. I don't see what has been surrendered here. Can you be specific? Otherwise please don't shoot randomness and scoot.

[Philip]

3.Other PRC viewpoints.
Some critics say that these are only " tit-for-tat" approaches, without clear strategic intent. It is uniting Indians against the PRC,which could ultimately draw the PRC into a conflict.
Those wantint to" teach us a lesson" are "shortsighted, not pschologically prepared for the rise of India." They lack understanding of India as a rising power,which in the future will be increasingly crucial ,second in importance only to Sino-US relations.
If Sino
- Indian relations are damaged beyond repair, India and other countries could cause " endless trouble for China." India will use every means to stop the PRC reaching the IOR and strengthening the anti- PRC grouping growing eaćh d⁰0ay. On the other hand,developing the relationship would be better served in preventing such a coalition.

4.Opinion on scenarios.
This group feels it would be unwise to seek a mil. confrontation against India, a big country with comparable strength. If the PRC has advantages in terms of psychology,experience topography, and climate,etc. ,India has advantages of deploymeynt, supply,practical war experience, topography, climate among others.India's capital may be within bombing range of the capital,
the PRC's key weakness lies in its long supply lines.If conflict ends in a short period it would benefit the PRC,in a long one the PRCwould be disadvantaged.

5.India options.
The PRC will now try to make India retreat without mil. conflict, keep peace on the borders and prevent it from growing closer to the US. At the samd time it will carry out its strategy of encircling India,weakenit internally withhelp to anti- Indian forces,extra troop deployments in Tibet, Gwadar,to secure its IOR sea routes,etc.
In the words of PRC strategist Yin Guoming," rather than winning a war,it should aim at attaining an overwhelming and comprehensive advantage in gepolitics vs India which cannot be altered by war.

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/PDShinkman/status/1 ... 7093814274

Paul D. Shinkman @PDShinkman

SCOOP: China is denying funerals for soldiers killed in a violent clash with India last month in an attempt to cover up the subsequent blowback, according to an intelligence assessment.

China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs told families of those who died in the Galwan Valley clash that they must forgo traditional burial ceremonies and cremate the soldiers' remains, and that any funeral services should not be conducted in person.

[yensoy]

Do we authoritatively know where PP-14 is? For a long time, forum knowledge was assuming it to be the triangle area where the Galwan river sharply turns west, and there were lots of twitter chatter about 'chinese' construction in that area (lone dissenter being Nitin Gokhale) that now appears to be our own, including a helipad.

I request everyone to see this discussion carried by Swatantra TV between Lt. Gen. S.L. Narasimhan [Retd], Currently Member, National Security Advisory Board (had commanded a Corps along China border, been India's Defence Attache in Beijing and also member of India-China JWG, currently heads The Centre for Contemporary Studies of China, a think-tank affiliated with MEA) and Commodore. R. Seshadri Vasan. Indian Navy [Retd] (Ex Commander INS Rajali, Commander ICG, Eastern Command and Director, Chennai Centre for China Studies)

This was an excellent discussion and the General gave very clear replies to even the most banal of questions. Worth watching!

Basically the LAC situation on the ground appears to be like electrons sharing the same position in space but hopefully not at the same time. It has been the tradition to have a large-ish area which is claimed by both sides and to which both sides have access - with drills in place to handle when parties meet. The part about "let us, the army on the ground handle it this way while the governments figure out where the line lies" was an eye-opener.

Lines are bound to get hardened as infra developed on both sides, with roads being built up to the claim lines and beyond. So just as we have presumably been denied access east of finger 4, the Chinese will be denied access west of finger 4. His referred to our access road into Galwan as the cause of friction rather than DS-DBO road. An important point he made was that we also should not be in any hurry to settle the border because we aren't going to gain any land out of it - maybe it is like a banker who doesn't want to recognize a bad loan - but it can be played to our advantage as well.

[yensoy]

My opinion is that just as we feel Indians don't understand the Chinese, the Chinese don't understand Indians. Maybe they understand us less than we understand them - as can be expected from an insular culture self-isolated by language and firewall, whereas we have a ton of western scholarship in addition to our own to know the Chinese, as well as Chinese-ethnic states like HK, Taiwan, Singapore from which to learn cultural nuances.

1. Today, Chinese are creatures of rules. They cannot handle disorder, ambiguity, chaos, or the grey area of negotiation (not price negotiation which is a single point, but negotiation across a spectrum of interests).
Indians have grown up in a state of ambiguity. We negotiate everything, we can deal with disorder, with arguments or inducement to get our job done.

2. The above makes the current generation of Chinese super risk averse. Just look at their reaction to the Wuhan virus and how they have killed off all travel to mainland China. Yes it gives their population a sense of normalcy, but with a mercantilist country like China it is anything but normal to not let foreign buyers into the country.
We, on the other hand, deal with risk like a fish takes to water. Covid? No worries, we will be herd immune in a few months, and we will deal with the fallout.

3. The Chinese soldiers love their toys and that is what they draw solace from - it can be seen in all the shakinaw propaganda videos. We, from the soldiers first and only then their equipment.
After Galwan, they will go back to their drawing boards and build new arctic tents, water diversion equipment and earthmovers; we will hone our command and control structure.

4. And that is really what matters. Experience, courage and determination. Chinese have not rolled their tanks since Tiananmen. We are battle hardened. Even the US I feel - at times - wants its military to be prepared for battle by being in a state of war. No amounts of exercise will replace battlefield experience, because exercise = order, battlefield = disorder. And we go back to point 1.

[Hari Nair]

^^^^ Good analysis above!

V.good analysis in the Hindu by Antara Singh...
...A weak India succumbing to PRC pressure. A well-known Delhi analyst has told me that it has been " total surrender" so far from our side. That is debatable but from inside knowledge.

Is the above your opinion/words or the authors? Please be very clear here. If you are implying a "total surrender" based on some unknown analyst, I think you are on very thin ice. I don't see what has been surrendered here. Can you be specific? ....

I believe that 'total surrender' bit is Philip Saar's opinion casually juxtaposed with the analysis - I couldn't find that bit in the original article either!

The analysis also has a confusing conclusion - if Sugarland does not believe its the right time for war, then why activate the borders?
Or perhaps, does that tie in with our (IA) analysis of the Bat Eaters doing this repeatedly till they finally decide to attack?

[KLNMurthy]

^^++
Article worth reading
The standoff and China’s India policy dilemma

Without comment:

When I clicked the above Hindu link, I got s popup that said, “YOU ARE BLOCKING QUALITY JOURNALISM. DISABLE AD BLOCKER OR SUBSCRIBE.”

[SSridhar]

^ Someone mentioned Github add on some time back, KLNMurthy.

[SSridhar]

One has to look at the result of the Galwan incident for China in a different light too. The loss of [at least] twice as many Chinese lives suffered by the PLAGF should be very traumatic for the top Chinese leadership. Here they have been comparing themselves only with the mighty US and throwing only condescending comments and looks at India consistently and suddenly they find that they could not match up to the ferocity of that country which is only one-fifth its economic and military might. Not only that, the Indian Army also mobilized as much, if not more than, what the mighty PLAGF did. Suddenly, they are de-pedestalled. All that haughtiness evaporated. Of course, even in 1962 war or in the 1979 Vietnam war, the Chinese never announced their casualty figures. But this time, it is different because unlike before, the Chinese now believe themselves at par only with the Americans (or even better than them) and this mighty slap across the face should be not only unsettling but demeaning (from their point of view).

[Rakesh]

Excellent post SSridhar Sir. +108!

[pankajs]

<snip>

However, a conflict with China is in the makings whether we like it or not. Modi started slow preparation after assuming office but I guess we will see military spend going ahead.

i.e. to say that China will force Modi to ramp up spending on military going ahead.

Twitter gyan ... FWIIW
https://twitter.com/drapr007/status/1283277857817604096

Dr. APR @drapr007

Order has been given to prepare for a full fledged 30 days two front war in coming months where tri services may participate due to ongoing tension with Pakistan and China on LoC and LAC & Chinese aggression in South China Sea. (#Sources)

Anothe pov that has some truth to it. Modi did ramp up preparedness across the front-line with infra and basics but not enough. He probably thought that he could push the inevitable conflict further down the line but Xi has other plans.
https://twitter.com/FrontalAssault1/sta ... 3142061056

FrontalAssault @FrontalAssault1

Too many emergency purchases prove that India never took threat of China seriously in past. Indian manufacturing companies need to increase their capabilities as forces will not wait for years for equipment.

[Rs_singh]

One has to look at the result of the Galwan incident for China in a different light too. The loss of [at least] twice as many Chinese lives suffered by the PLAGF should be very traumatic for the top Chinese leadership.

I disagree here. CCP has never cared about lives, leave alone of the "peasant" kind which services the PLAGF. On the cas count, all I'll say is we gave as good as we got.

Here they have been comparing themselves only with the mighty US and throwing only condescending comments and looks at India consistently and suddenly they find that they could not match up to the ferocity of that country which is only one-fifth its economic and military might. Not only that, the Indian Army also mobilized as much, if not more than, what the mighty PLAGF did. Suddenly, they are de-pedestalled. All that haughtiness evaporated.

While it is true, the mighty Middle Kingdom has no competition except Uncle Sam, it only confuses me further. Why pick a fight with us? why now? Honestly, I don't know. The basic premise of probing defenses relies on a meek adversary. so was our action a miscalculation?Unexpected? Clearly they must have accounted for the "worst possible scenario" which included things going kinetic. Something does not quite make sense here. What next? what would their response be?

Of course, even in 1962 war or in the 1979 Vietnam war, the Chinese never announced their casualty figures. But this time, it is different because unlike before, the Chinese now believe themselves at par only with the Americans (or even better than them) and this mighty slap across the face should be not only unsettling but demeaning (from their point of view).

And this is what troubles me the most. Assuming this is indeed so, it begs retaliation. If what you are saying is true, they will retaliate at some point, somewhere.

So things don't quite work well together. They don't care for lives, so why stop? they care about being a hegemon and pacifying the barbarian, and yet they find themselves looking to save face? Unless, there is more to come. Action, response, counter response and national mood is all but clear to the CMC given this clash. They seem to have answered some of their known unknowns.

[Karan M]

I will believe this increased military spend stuff only when budget goes up. All the emergency purchase stuff does is front load revenue and capex spend. At the end of the day, all the spending is added up, and the services go complaining they didn't have enough funds.

The UPA cynically used a broken L1/DPP to shortchange defence spending and send the money back to MOF year after year, while dividends from PSUs soaked up their excess ie profits and made sure no R&D was done. After Modi came, we have a focus on spending whatever is available and this started from 2016 onwards. Only that OFB conned everyone and wasted the huge amounts lavished on them. But apart from that, our spares, weapons shortages were addressed to a large degree. OFB makes some 90 out of 163 ammo types used by the IA. That apart, the domestic R&D scene picked up with more projects cleared by curtailing procurement programs especially in the missile arena. But the overall spending has been capped at the earlier limit. So the services will prioritize big ticket purchases which are "silver bullets" as they offer a huge short term boost (in their thinking). These are obviously imports.

So 36 Rafale over a Su-30 upgrade + Tejas + additional Phalcons (at 9 Billion+ $, that's the equivalent cost). Delaying Tejas Mk1A order while pushing for more Su-30s and MiG-29s now. S-400 vs more MRSAM and Akash as its a single system with a range of missiles etc.

But this kind of short term boost chokes the pipeline for capex, revenue expenditure and there is precious little left for domestic purchases. Also, the fundamental issues remain unaddressed. Modi could not break the OFB logjam in years past. Hopefully it will be done now. Pinaka and rifle ammo, in particular needs to go private asap as the capability exists.

Astra filepushing taking one year on grounds of this trial, that trial is another case of too slow. Any other AF would have taken a few emergency batches, trials be darned as long as baseline performance, safety were established. But we are stuck in paperwork and a dislike of local agencies while we assume the foreign guys are proven. That would make sense only if the latter had not sold us absolute lemons too. I track defence procurement very closely and it has always worried me how many of our "proven kit" turns out to be sub-optimal when actually inducted. Things are now improving somewhat.

But overall, to make the aatmanirbhar bharat slogan a reality and not a farce, priority has to be given to Indian designed and developed arms like LCA, LCH otherwise the recently relaxed FDI rules will be used to dump screwdriver assembly as "Indian gear" on us.

Let me point out that the single Rafale deal is worth more, in actual amount, than the entire orders placed on a defence PSU for homegrown gear. Think on that for a second. One single deal vs 6 years of mostly desi procurement. If that does not make us think what budget wreckers imports are, nothing will. Yes we need them in some cases but domestic production has been solidly ignored and launching programs but not placing orders is pointless.

Also by limiting capex and adding OROP/Pensions, we have ensured we dont modernize enough either. The PRC will attack with a wave of missile attacks. How many S-400 have we ordered? Where is the approval or funding for the DRDO BMD system? You have the answer there.

There are severe gaps in our force posture, and that too is a fact.

[schinnas]

Please post the recommendation on raising more scout companies.
Thanks. I could not copy-paste it.

https://stratnewsglobal.com/how-lessons ... ese-moves/

As for the future, Indian planners are working on various plans to meet another likely Chinese attempt at intimidation and probing advances in coming years even as diplomacy tries to find lasting solutions to the contentious boundary issue. The plans include improving ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) capability along the LAC, utilising additional heavy lift capability provided by the Indian Air Force (IAF) and speeding up all-weather surface connectivity to Ladakh and other vulnerable areas in Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim. Raising the strength of various Scout battalions (Ladakh Scouts, Arunachal Scouts, Sikkim Scouts, Garhwal and Kumaon Scouts) is also on the anvil. The Scout battalions, as the name suggests, function as the eyes and ears of the Army in forward areas. The recruits are mostly drawn from amongst the local population and, therefore, more familiar with the local topography and better acclimatised to high-altitude areas. Their deployment in forward areas helps the Army to get early warning and advance intelligence. More soldiers are likely to be recruited in these battalions in coming years and will be deployed in company strength (100-odd men) instead of battalion.

Meanwhile, a comprehensive assessment of the Ladakh episode is currently under way in different segments of the Indian security establishment as well as in government-linked or government-supported think tanks. The three armed forces are carrying out their own review of the Chinese deployments, particular by the PLA and the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) in Xinjiang, Tibet and in Aksai Chin since early May, while a separate stock-taking of India’s intelligence gathering capability, both TECHINT (technical intelligence) and HUMINT (human intelligence) is being done to figure out what could be done to better collect, collate and analyse varied intelligence inputs that are received from time to time. Think-tanks such as the MEA-funded China Centre for Contemporary Studies (CCCS) are also looking at possible non-military reasons for the Chinese actions in Ladakh and their long-term consequences for India-China relations."

[SSridhar]

I disagree here. CCP has never cared about lives, leave alone of the "peasant" kind which services the PLAGF. On the cas count, all I'll say is we gave as good as we got.

Of course, they used not to care. Forty million in Great Leap Forward was a different era. Even 1979 was a far cry. There is already a lot of resentment about handling Covid. There was a news item that the Chinese were comparing the military honours with which Indian martyrs were buried versus the lack of anything like that in China. There was another news item that PLA forced the next of kin to bury/burn their dead soldiers quietly. Even the mighty CCP had to acknowledge that Dr. Li Wenliang was a martyr, something which probably wouldn't have happened earlier. Times are changing, communication revolution is there everywhere. Chinese families have one child and to lose that one and that too unacknowledged will have consequences. We do not know the casualty count accurately but we handed over ourselves at least 16 bodies. Even a 1:1 count is a setback for the leaders who are drunk on their assumptions of heavenly superiority, especially against lowly Indians.

While it is true, the mighty Middle Kingdom has no competition except Uncle Sam, it only confuses me further. Why pick a fight with us? why now? Honestly, I don't know.

Many reasons including some given in The Hindu analysis by DPG, above. I posted this sometime back. the Chinese have quite a few objectives every time and even if only a few are achieved (like 2 steps forward and one back), it is still all right for them.

[Rs_singh]

Also by limiting capex and adding OROP/Pensions, we have ensured we dont modernize enough either. The PRC will attack with a wave of missile attacks. How many S-400 have we ordered? Where is the approval or funding for the DRDO BMD system? You have the answer there.

KaranM,

Maybe you can shed some light on this:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/01/08/me ... er-drones/

It's an old article but basically claims that PLAAF is repurposing old 21s,15s,17s,19s into drones for ground attack. They have a huge inventory of this kind. Cheap, effective, deadly.

Does the IAF have a similar program? When mixed in with H6Ks firing stand offs, it truly will be "cometh the swarm"

We need effective AA/AD options in addition to a potent EW force.

[Rs_singh]

Of course, they used not to care. Forty million in Great Leap Forward was a different era. Even 1979 was a far cry. There is already a lot of resentment about handling Covid. There was a news item that the Chinese were comparing the military honours with which Indian martyrs were buried versus the lack of anything like that in China. There was another news item that PLA forced the next of kin to bury/burn their dead soldiers quietly. Even the mighty CCP had to acknowledge that Dr. Li Wenliang was a martyr, something which probably wouldn't have happened earlier. Times are changing, communication revolution is there everywhere. Chinese families have one child and to lose that one and that too unacknowledged will have consequences. We do not know the casualty count accurately but we handed over ourselves at least 16 bodies. Even a 1:1 count is a setback for the leaders who are drunk on their assumptions of heavenly superiority, especially against lowly Indians.

I believe there are question from within the CCP leadership, who knows about their public sentiment. All I heard was they were raving on their platforms about the evil yindooo

what have they gained this time? do all this for a few kms of land? something doesn't quite sit right, then again, vinaash kale vipreet Buddhi. anywho, thanks!

[KLNMurthy]

One has to look at the result of the Galwan incident for China in a different light too. The loss of [at least] twice as many Chinese lives suffered by the PLAGF should be very traumatic for the top Chinese leadership.

I disagree here. CCP has never cared about lives, leave alone of the "peasant" kind which services the PLAGF. On the cas count, all I'll say is we gave as good as we got.

"caring about lives" can have multiple meanings:

When we lose our soldiers, we feel love & pain of loss. And anger towards whoever caused this loss. Even though for most of us, the dead soldiers are not our personal family / friends. That's one way of caring.

When the Chinese lose their soldiers, they feel insulted / loss of face. ("Face" is just shorthand for "this makes me look weak to the outside world, that means some predator will be emboldened to attack me. I think this way because I am myself a predator and can only think like a predator.") That's another way of caring.

So we Indians can't just say, "ok, Chinese don't care about their soldiers' lives, they are peasant cannon-fodder onlee, so they won't do anything even if we kill hundreds of them. But they are doing something, so now I am confused onlee." That's in-the-box thinking. Chinese (here I should say CCP, because soldiers' families and friends obviously care the same way we do, as humans. But their society as a whole, even outside CCP, probably doesn't care about the soldiers the way we care) also care, but not in the way that we care.

While it is true, the mighty Middle Kingdom has no competition except Uncle Sam, it only confuses me further. Why pick a fight with us? why now? Honestly, I don't know. The basic premise of probing defenses relies on a meek adversary. so was our action a miscalculation?Unexpected? Clearly they must have accounted for the "worst possible scenario" which included things going kinetic. Something does not quite make sense here. What next? what would their response be?

If you read Indo-commie intellectuals' writings, from at least as far back as 9/11 they have been angry that India under Fascist BJP (back then it was Vajpayee) is running to be America's lapdog. They want to put a stop to that.

Indo-commies' words are a decent weathervane to understand Chinese thinking.

We have seen plenty of articles that tell us that Chinese believe India is almost, or completely America's vassal. The way to attack a powerful emperor is to start on his vassals. Just attack enough to make the emperor look weak for not defending his vassal, but not enough to cause all-out war with the emperor while the emperor is still powerful.

To understand Chinese pisko, study the nature of bullies aka predatory humans. Every one of their behaviors falls under some bullying behavioral pattern or other.

Chinese are one of nature's bullies. They can only think in terms of emperors and vassals. Calibrated attack on India makes perfect sense in that view.

And this is what troubles me the most. Assuming this is indeed so, it begs retaliation. If what you are saying is true, they will retaliate at some point, somewhere.

Right now, they are probably in think & recalibrate mode. They thought it's a simple matter of slapping India and thereby humiliating the yankee emperor. They were the ones that got humiliated instead. It doesn't mean they are going to simply abandon their bullying mindset. They will just figure out the next line of attack. Their belief that India is practically america's vassal hasn't changed. Their strategy of weakening the emperor by subduing his vassals hasn't changed.

They have lots of arrows in their quiver. Massive network of spies in India, US & western countries, paid journos, commies, fellow travelers and so on. Lots of people love to be chamchas of the bully even if they don't get material rewards; there is huge pisko satisfaction for that type of people in being a beta dog behind the alpha dog. All those people are China's army.

So, they can do "anything" at all. But knowing who they are (essentially bullies) we can formulate and execute a very effective defense to "defang and neutralize." But first, we have to be clear on who *we* are.

It is a pisko game onlee.