PAK-FA and FGFA: News & Discussion - June 2014

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Sep 2015 09:55

T-50 Top View https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5753/215 ... 4d0c_o.jpg
T-50-5 Bare Metal http://www.knaapo.ru/media/rus/gallery/ ... _hires.jpg

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 26 Sep 2015 19:05

http://idrw.org/indian-air-force-nervous/#more-74403

Sources close to idrw.org in past have confirmed that officials of Russian air force have confirmed privately to Indian air force counterparts that the program has been plagued by technical issues and they them selfs have been reluctant to commit on major orders for the PAk-FA instead augmenting their fleet by placing orders for Sukhoi-30SM multirole fighter aircraft, which basically is a Russian variant of highly exported Sukhoi-30MKI aircraft which has been in production in India and also boosts of completely streamlined lined production method.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Sep 2015 19:26

Looks like 2020 IOC got shifted to 2025.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 26 Sep 2015 20:31

^^ The idrw report contracts what Russian Airforce chief said today

Russia's T-50 5th Generation Fighter Jets to Enter Service in 2017

AKHTUBINSK (Astrakhan Region)(Sputnik) — The T-50 is currently undergoing flight tests that have so far been successful, Bondarev said. Previous reports stated that the aircraft would enter into service in 2016.

“Under the program, we will finish testing next year and will begin to receive the T-50 jets in 2017," Bondarev said.

According to Bondarev, the aircraft fully meets the requirements.

The T-50 prototype aircraft is designed by the Russian Sukhoi aircraft manufacturer for the PAK FA, a fifth-generation fighter program of the Russian Air Force.

The fighter jet is expected to become the first operational stealth aircraft for the Russian Air Force and will incorporate advanced avionics and all-digital flight systems.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/military/2015092 ... z3mrRR1ifh

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 27 Sep 2015 00:21

The trend continues. Good news from Russia and bad news from India.

I will take the IDRW over Sputniknews though.

member_22605 · Post by **member_22605** » 27 Sep 2015 11:05

Just as many believe David axe and bill sweetman over gen bogdan for their F35 related news and info also bill and david have a good reputation while the guys at IDRW rely more on rumors than research.

member_22539 · Post by **member_22539** » 27 Sep 2015 13:46

^Are you contradicting this particular IDRW report?

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 27 Sep 2015 13:54

Arun Menon wrote:^Are you contradicting this particular IDRW report?

If an IDRW report contains "..sources close to <IAF/DRDO/Barack Obama/Your mom>.." and hasn't been copied from a news website then the report's probably more halal than khuspoo's musharraf hole

.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 03 Oct 2015 17:19

LOL, true. IDRW is the armpit of defense news 9 times out of 10. Just cook up stuff for eyeballs.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 04 Oct 2015 15:46

shiv wrote:http://idrw.org/indian-air-force-nervous/#more-74403
Sources close to idrw.org in past have confirmed that officials of Russian air force have confirmed privately to Indian air force counterparts that the program has been plagued by technical issues and they them selfs have been reluctant to commit on major orders for the PAk-FA instead augmenting their fleet by placing orders for Sukhoi-30SM multirole fighter aircraft, which basically is a Russian variant of highly exported Sukhoi-30MKI aircraft which has been in production in India and also boosts of completely streamlined lined production method.

Austin wrote:^^ The idrw report contracts what Russian Airforce chief said today

Russia's T-50 5th Generation Fighter Jets to Enter Service in 2017

Both articles may be right. In the West, IOC for an aircraft is declared when its ready for combat in squadron service with a trained crew, ground staff, working support system, the works. In contrast, the Russians refer to the point when the operator/service starts taking delivery of a weapon system, something its not in a position to deploy in combat at the time. In US DoD terminology that would be called 'Milestone C'.

I'm am however sceptical about the Russian Air Chief's comments. If they start receiving production standard aircraft in 2017, that implies the program is only a year behind schedule (the original target was 2016). Between budget challenges, technical issues, production scale backs and the T-50-5 write-off, its clearly behind by a lot more than that.

It still has another 4-5 prototypes to go, along with an entirely new engine. In addition, it'll take another couple of years to iron out the issues faced by the LRIP/LSP type aircraft. All in all, the RuAF intends to take delivery of 12 aircraft by 2020. Its highly unlikely that the IAF can start receiving its 'second-stage' PAK FAs before 2022.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 04 Oct 2015 17:28

Trying to explain what IDRW comes up with is an exercise in futility. They just plain cook up stuff from time to time..

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 04 Oct 2015 19:38

What gives the report some credibility is the push for mil modernisation under Putin.He has been v. focussed and concentrated all effort on critical Russian weapon systems,first priority the SSBNs,and SSGNs,both new types have recd. mush praise from the USN.Both types in service and production accelerating. A famed missile designer who couldn't succeed with the Bulava BM was fired and it worked.
The Armata series of AVs was similarly pushed to fruition,revealed at the WW2 victory anniv. parade.Putin will succeed with the T-50,one can't predict the schedule,but with his push it will happen,but as some have pointed out,there may be,most likely incremental improvements after the first sqds see service.We know about the problems being faced developing a new engine,but other systems seem to have matured and some are on the SU-35.

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 06 Oct 2015 18:06

IAF frets over Russian fighter aircraft deal.

The worries of the air force on getting a capable fifth generation fighter aircraft to counter the development of two futuristic fighters by China are mounting with little clarity on the Russian program that New Delhi had signed onto in 2010.

As Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar heads to Russia later this month for bilateral military-technical consultations, top officers of the air force fear that the fifth generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) program may never take off if things continue at the present pace, foreclosing it as an option for a viable future fighter aircraft.

Senior IAF officials have told ET that several questions have been raised by India on the FGFA program, with little feedback or sharing of details by the Russian side.For starters, the IAF has not been given a tentative per unit production cost of the next generation fighter that is being developed by Sukhoi.

"It is impossible to sign on to anything with Russia till we have some clarity on the per unit cost of an aircraft. If the price turns out to be exorbitant, we may not even be able to afford it," a senior officer told ET. The air force's worry is not without merit, given that production costs for Russian aircraft in India have gone up tremendously in the past 10 years.

At present, a Sukhoi 30 MKI that would cost Rs 227 crores to manufacture in Russia, rolls out of HAL's Nashik plant for over Rs 440 crores. This considerable mark-up is due to the extra man hours that are required by HAL to manufacture an aircraft, the official explained.

Even if price could be sorted out, officials say that several basic questions on technical capabilities of the under development fighter exist with no reasonable explanation from Russia in sight. Besides the fact that Russia has not been able to develop a new engine for the aircraft that would give it super cruise capability - to fly faster than the speed of sound without going to afterburners - the IAF is worried about the weapons package for the fighter.

"Till now, all we see is that the weapons being offered by Russia for the FGFA are the same ones that are available for our Su 30 MKI fleet. A fifth generation aircraft is not just the platform but the entire package - from sensors to weapons, which we are yet to see," the officer said.

The IAF feels that as per the present design, the weapons on offer are too large to be fitted into the internal weapons bay of the FGFA. At present configuration this would end up with the weapons being loaded externally, taking away the most basic feature of a fifth generation fighter - stealth. "The weapons bay is too small and external weapons would show up the fighter on radar," the official told ET.

India has already invest $ 295 million in the Russian FGFA program with a design contract signed in 2010. However, a subsequent plan for a full fledged research and design program has not materialized, even as the intended Indian work share on the platform has depleted.

While the US has two fifth generation fighters operational - the F 22 and F 35, China is fast tracking its own next generation fighter programs -the J 20 air superiority fighter and the FC 31 medium fighter. India has also announced its plans for a future Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) with the air force looking at a 15 year induction plan if the project progresses on time.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Oct 2015 18:35

i guess PlanB == JSF-A ... but I doubt it will be very effective in A2A role unless we buy into the entire "network of systems" that would level the playing field against a2a oriented airframes like J35, f22 and pakfa.
these other parts may not be on table for sale, or too expensive as usual.

we better change all this to PlanB==AMCA.

if this does not light a fire under the table, and get IAF, ADA and HAL into a friendly Go-Team-India huddle, nothing will save us.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 06 Oct 2015 18:49

Plan A, Plan B, whatever. This will never end.

Plan 0 needs to be mooted: an Indian engine. Name it Project Kargil.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 06 Oct 2015 20:06

that would level the playing field against a2a oriented airframes like J35

Just out of curiosity how is the J-31 better at A2A? or even the much larger J-20 for that matter?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 23 Oct 2015 15:07

Tough call for Manohar Parrikar on FGFA project

Defence minister Manohar Parrikar will have a tough call to make when he sits down to review the much-delayed fifth generation fighter aircraft...
By: Huma Siddiqui | New Delhi | October 22, 2015 12:04 AM

Defence minister Manohar Parrikar will have a tough call to make when he sits down to review the much-delayed fifth generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) programme with his Russian counterpart during his visit to Moscow in November.

Speaking to FE, a senior MoD official, on condition of anonymity, said: “Given the current situation, where the Indian Air Force (IAF) is in deep trouble due to its fast depleting force structure, the Indian government will need to take well thought out decision with long-term and strategic foresight. There is no doubt that the PAK-FA (Sukhoi Design Proposal) will be emerge as a major FGFA in the world. Hence, it would be better for India to take a reality check on the FGFA and recalibrate its position.” Parrikar, who will be going for the the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission on Military-Technical Cooperation meeting ahead of the annual Indo-Russia summit, will review the FGFA project as well as the Medium Transport Aircraft (MTA) and other defence projects, MoD officials said.

According to air marshal (retd) M Matheswaran, “The origins of FGFA proposals go back to 2002, when it was suggested by the Russians for an inter-governmental programme. Given the urgency of its requirement for the badly-depleted Russian Air Force and the need for financial investment to cover the huge cost of the programme, Russia hoped to address it through India as its partner. Besides, a huge order from the IAF would retain continuity in India-Russia military aircraft production relationship and help the Russian aircraft industry.” Matheswaran, who is also doctoral faculty of Naval War College, Goa, said: “In the meantime, many things have happened. The IAF has downsized its requirement to just 64 aircraft as off-the shelf buy. Discussions on costs and role in non-existent design and development have resulted in a messy situation. The defence minister will have a tough call to make.”

Sources said the agreement that could be inked at the annual summit will also include a fixed order of 154 jets, work share and a firm commitment to the number of single versus double seat FGFA. With the Western sanctions impacting the Russian economy, President Vladmir Putin is keen that the FGFA programme with India fructifies as the joint programme will reduce development cost and guarantee an export customer. And for India, it would help it strengthen IAF’s dwindling squadrons.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 23 Oct 2015 19:02

Defence minister Manohar Parrikar will have a tough call to make when he sits down to review the much-delayed fifth generation fighter aircraft...

As I have been saying, it is a very tough call. The fit is not what it is used to be, thus the natural friction. The processes (funds, need for more planes, etc) have an overlap between the two nations, but their goals are totally different.

But, this is very good for India, IMHO. An opportunity to make that leap to be a leader. There will be a lot of pain, but that is to be expected.

This article and the one by BK in the indo-russo thread are seminal.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 23 Oct 2015 20:45

Check the same indo-russia dhaga Indian Amb Interview ,FGFA design is frozen it will be custom built for India with a high amount of stealth , TOT is far greater than MKI program.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 23 Oct 2015 22:12

There is a LOT more frozen. Including the Amby who made those statements. He has to - that is his job.

Let us see what these meetings produce. The SC seat issue has thrown a damper I am sure. What else is out there remains to be seen.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 23 Oct 2015 23:13

Well, this is another result of the poor decision making ability of GOI leadership. The talk of partnering with the Russians was rife since the early 2000s, when india was doing well economically and Russia needed the help...they would have been more willing and forthcoming then. But we waited until a prototype flew in 2010 and the design was well frozen...still, one feels an outright Mki type deal would work out best, esp. Considering the urgency of the situation. Bottomline is that nobody will share cutting edge tech, india has to invest enough to create its own.
Having said this, the Russians are more willing than the rest.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 24 Oct 2015 01:49

Having said this, the Russians are more willing than the rest

By far and large that is true. But for whatever reason it does not seem to be the case with the PAK-FA. Looks like Indians are still awaiting to get a close look at it. Then the good news is mostly from the Russian news outlets, while the bad or not so good news is mostly from the Indian outlets. Somes up, dunno what.

member_22539 · Post by **member_22539** » 24 Oct 2015 06:01

NRao wrote:By far and large that is true. But for whatever reason it does not seem to be the case with the PAK-FA.

The reason is quite obvious. The whole program is a mess, most so the new engines.

member_29172 · Post by **member_29172** » 24 Oct 2015 06:24

FGFA is a mess, just buy 10 or 20 and start the work on AMCA, that's what matters not this annoying project that has turned into another cash cow for russians. Previous reports have repeatedly stated that no significant TOT took place and India was pretty much kept out of the project altogether. The urgent tone of the article is just a ruse to fool people. I really hope GOI won't waste billions on another substandard russian junk when it can be produced by India.

Russians have blatantly started to take us for a ride, while we spend most of the money, we don't even get to see what's going on. That's not how a partnership works. They did the same drama with Vikramaditya, 10 years to refit an already built ships and billions more down the drain. Drop FGFA and pour the billions in AMCA. That's the need of the hour.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Oct 2015 06:34

Saurav Jha tweets

2. Some 50 more flanker frames will likely join the IAF beyond the 272. These could be Super 30s or even Su-35 MKI.

3. FGFA will be speeded up if the Russians agree to Indian demands on improvements and ToT.

4. Once govt revenues move into high gear around 2018 and France credibly discharges offsets, IAF might just end up getting 36 more Rafales.

So it will be Flanker , Rafale and FGFA

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 24 Oct 2015 06:55

Don't want to add one more theory, but why 50+ super flankers and 36 rafales? Navy might be a better choice for rafales as Vishal most likely be under construction.

member_22539 · Post by **member_22539** » 24 Oct 2015 07:47

^Vishal "possibly" constructed using Khan technology flying the 4.5 gen Rafale instead of the 5 gen F-35? Isn't that stretching it?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Oct 2015 07:55

Vishal will be designed around Rafale and 5.5 Gen AMCA so no need for Khans aircraft when we can have our own , Even a Naval Tejas Mk3 would be a great choice till AMCA is ready.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 24 Oct 2015 08:00

What is 5.5 generation in terms of capability?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Oct 2015 08:06

brar_w wrote:What is 5.5 generation in terms of capability?

What ever IAF wants from it , Google for AMCA though its capability is a work in progress

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 24 Oct 2015 08:07

I have followed it quite closely here, but what specifically makes it 5.5 generation capability was my point. If you look at 4.5 generation nomenclature for example it clearly borrows some limited capability in avionics, or even performance when pitted against some 5th generation aircraft. For a 5.5 generation aircraft, you would have to borrow some features that will be ahead of it in projects that follow it. From what I have seen I can't really point to a 5.5 generation capability there. Its a fifth generation capability that the IAF requires and that is something that is being tried on the AMCA. I haven't come across any 5.5 generation technology being sought in any material here or google.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Oct 2015 08:11

brar_w wrote:I have followed it quite closely here, but what specifically makes it 5.5 generation capability was my point.

At the very least better stealth , supercruise , what ever advancement DRDO will make in Avionic/Sensor/Wepons in the next 6-8 years , Structures & Materials.Except engine where we are truly lacking and cant make it in that time frame.

I expect a significant inputs from Naval Tejas program will end up feeding into AMCA Naval variant.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Oct 2015 08:21

brar_w wrote: I haven't come across any 5.5 generation technology being sought in any material here or google.

The 5.5 Gen term is not coined by me but by ADA/DRDO heading AMCA program , he mentioned better stealth as one key requirement.

AMCA ofcourse has the hindsight of looking into Rafale,FGFA,Tejas technology and build up on it so there is a chance they can better many of these technology and equal few of them , also depends what kind of progress DRDO makes or made in Structure , Materials and sensors etc.

I am not a great fan of coining terms coz AMCA might just be 3rd Gen for us looking at our previous programs but 5+ gen in terms of competing technologies , Most important from Indian POV is to have an indiginous engine and not to repeat Tejas mistake in that area.

pragnya · Post by **pragnya** » 24 Oct 2015 11:04

with workshare yet to be sorted out on FGFA, Rafale itself in a mess over cost, both of them in good numbers seem improbable. i am reminded of my own post in 2013 -

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 5#p1503165

better procure 2/3 sq of PAKFA as is - when ready, similar to Rafale. invest in AMCA and LCA for both generational leap and numbers. this is a national necessity. the earlier all concerned accept this, coordinate their moves, work together, the better for us in the longterm.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 24 Oct 2015 11:17

On naval variants/options:

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 1#p1920901

Let us wait and see, but I expect Parrikar to kick that can even further. And, Modi would rather spend billions on setting up oil/gas deals with Russia than on planes.

srai · Post by **srai** » 24 Oct 2015 16:15

Austin wrote:Saurav Jha tweets

2. Some 50 more flanker frames will likely join the IAF beyond the 272. These could be Super 30s or even Su-35 MKI.

3. FGFA will be speeded up if the Russians agree to Indian demands on improvements and ToT.

4. Once govt revenues move into high gear around 2018 and France credibly discharges offsets, IAF might just end up getting 36 more Rafales.
So it will be Flanker , Rafale and FGFA

How much is the revenue going to increase in 2018? We know 36 Rafales will be $9billion and FGFA will be in billions as well. Plus, let's not forget all the force multipliers the IAF needs to purchase. How about the IN and IA modernization efforts? More of a dream than reality IMO.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 25 Oct 2015 02:15

^ Absolutely, order 3 more squadrons of MKIs and ramp up LCA production. Having around 320 of heavy fighters is a formidable strength. To put in context, khan AF operates around 400 Eagles of all types.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 25 Oct 2015 11:27

srai wrote:How much is the revenue going to increase in 2018? We know 36 Rafales will be $9billion and FGFA will be in billions as well. Plus, let's not forget all the force multipliers the IAF needs to purchase. How about the IN and IA modernization efforts? More of a dream than reality IMO.

That $9 Billion amount in short needs to be brought into context, we just don't know the actual numbers at this point. Egypt paid $5.6bn for 24 Rafales and a Fremm frigate. The Egypt deal includes significant numbers of munitions. AASM, Mica, Scalp, Exocet and so forth. We are getting offsets. So we could be at that level or we could be less (much more likely).
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defens ... /70211852/
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defens ... /23674673/

Point is we have heard all sorts of numbers for the Rafale deal so far. $9B for 36, $20 for the 126, $40Bn for the 126 and so forth. Whatever amount is finally paid for the first 36, will also include substantial amounts in terms of infrastructure and fixed costs that can actually be spread out across a larger buy (the second tranche hence need not cost as much as the first).

FGFA at this point is more of a long distance acquisition. Its payments (for actual airframes will only occur in the 2020+ timeframe). At best, right now, we will likely invest a few more Billion in the R&D program, provided the Russians get some sense and include us properly in the program, giving the IAF more confidence in what the product is shaping up as.

This is the real reason the IAF wants the Rafale. Having seen the amount of time required by the Russians to give the IAF "its" Su-30, they anticipate the FGFA will take more time.

One way or the other, we will be spending a lot more on defence than we have. But at the same time, we will hopefully be closing boondoggles like NREGA (or allowing it to wither on the vine) and the revenue-corruption correlation will go down (no more huge losses viz coal, spectrum etc), so its not merely economic growth per se, which will free up some funds.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 25 Oct 2015 15:44

As said on another td.,the best naval aircraft for the 65K t CV would be a naval variant of the Super Sukhoi,BMos-M equipped (3),with stealth additives,far more capable than the naval Rafale and would cost half the price too. If the Russians develop a naval FGFA then that would be ideal a decade+,when the CV is expected to arrive,only after 2015. The CV would need around 40+ fighters.These could be a combo of Super-Sukhois and naval FGFAs ,as costs do matter. It is going to take a min of 15 years to develop the AMCA.The CV will come sooner. Upgraded 29Ks to 35 std. are another option.The LCA in whatever avatar it comes will be inadequate for the tasks required at that time,being single-engine with lesser range and payload than a heavy twin-engine fighter.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 25 Oct 2015 20:57

^too late for that now, the chance for a naval flanker was lost the moment they realized it was too big for the lifts on the vikad...I think if indian navy wants a third type it will have to be something more futuristic and as far as possible, retro fitable on it's carriers...the future is likely to be AMCA + JSF, the interim might be lca plus fulcrum with an outside chance for rafale.