Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

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shiv
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 18 Jan 2017 09:53

^^Yes that was in fact scanned by me from a book I still have..

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby A_Gupta » 18 Jan 2017 10:14

http://thediplomat.com/2017/01/why-indi ... ile-china/

Relevant to understand Chinese agitation.

Quote:
Many in China believe that India’s programs to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile and a strategic nuclear triad, with future MIRV capability, have moved beyond the requirements of minimum deterrence with the potential of upsetting the existing balance of power

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Pratyush » 18 Jan 2017 10:30

Ha ha , I just love the Chinese sense of entitlement. It will be easy to beat the PRC. Just don't behave the way the PRC expected and you can watch them come undone.

PRC will be a middling power at best.

The biggest threat to India comes if the TSP miscalculated as is usual for it . And not from what the PRC can do directly to India.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby kit » 18 Jan 2017 10:37

better to threaten them with a 2 front war for any Pakistan aggression .. let it be the cheen job to wind down the Pakistan .. deploy a fleet of nuke subs with MIRV ed missiles to cover the whole of china for starters .. do a Pakistan on china so to say .. if Pakistan can achieve " parity" with India so can India with China .. uncle will be happy cheering from the sidelines ( hopefully translate to better trade and defense relations ! )
Last edited by kit on 18 Jan 2017 10:44, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Deans » 18 Jan 2017 10:37

My take from Shiv's opening post (which ought to be evaluated seriously), is that the Chinese have far more options to attack us, than we do.
In the 'Paratroopers in Delhi' scenario, however implausible, a planeload of para's landing near Delhi on a one way mission, will cause panic out of proportion to its military significance, particularly if accompanied by reverses on the battlefield.

If I study Vivek Ahuja's brilliantly written Chimera, (in the absence of any other India-China war simulation) the battles, if tweaked only slightly, can result in an overwhelming Chinese victory - and Vivek's counterparts in China have probably gamed that. I would imagine we at BRF, know a lot less about the PLA's ORBAT and what they might deploy against India in a `designed to teach us a short sharp lesson' 1962 type of war, than we know
about Pak.

As a starting point, can someone list what forces the PLA can deploy against us in Ladakh and the North East ? What do we realistically have to counter them. What reserves can either side deploy (in a situation where bridges will be knocked out) within a week ? I suspect our gaps will be in logistics - the ability to transport reserves and the firepower of our forward units (we could be outnumbered 2:1 in manpower but 3:1 in firepower).
Last edited by Deans on 18 Jan 2017 11:32, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 18 Jan 2017 10:45

Deans wrote:As a starting point, can someone list what forces the PLA can deploy against us in Ladakh and the North East ? What do we realistically have to counter them. What reserves can either side deploy (in a situation where bridges will be knocked out) within a week ? I suspect our gaps will be in logistics - the ability to transport reserves and the firepower of our forward units (we could be outnumbered 2:1 in manpower but 3:1 in firepower).

We spend all our time discussing forces forces forces. We need to talk terrain and logistics as well. That is one og the problems I have been banging my head against. The terrain is totally unique and as is the geography and climate. And without talking logistics - talking force is a pointless exercise.
I urge you to forget forces for a while and even be accused of being stupid. Look at terrain and logistics first and then lok at what forces are needed for individual areas of terrain and the logistics for that,

We are dealing with these issues like BRF used to deal with air warfare an couple of years ago. We never spoke about anything other than air to air warfare and interception - BVR or dogfights. Attack and the role of offensive air power was never ever discussed among a "Top Gun" smitten audience.

Forget forces. Look at terrain and logistics and then ask about how and what forces can be applied for offence and for defence

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby rohitvats » 18 Jan 2017 11:02

^^^Here is some data-point for you:

- IA has 10 dedicated divisions against the Chinese. To this, you can further add independent infantry/mountain brigades which should be equivalent of another 2 divisions. In addition, IA should complete raising of 2 x armored brigades as well for the Chinese front.

- If push comes to shove, IA can add 4-5 extra divisions from AHQ reserve + other formations earmarked for western sector.

- AFAIK, against the forces mentioned in point 1, China does not even have 20% of the strength in Tibet proper. They can make do with these forces because they know we won't be the first ones to fire a shot in anger.

- For them, all their forces MUST come from outside of Tibet.

- This is where the infrastructure comes into play - they can move troops from other regions into Tibet using their road and rail network. But while this has cut down the time required by them to move sizeable troops against us in NE, there are going to be no surprises from the Chinese side.

- And don't forget, the troops that come into the high altitude theater of Tibet will require acclimatization. That is 15 days minimum for them to be able to work as a fighting force. Chinese troops coming into Tibet will directly go to war after this acclimatization. As against this, Indian troops sit on those heights/this sector for 2+ years. Indian soldier is that much more physically geared for combat at these heights.

- If anything, it is we who can surprise the Chinese ANY DAY we want; this of course, depends on the political will. The million dollar question is what happens after the surprise?

-What we did in case of Op Chequerboard is a good case study of what India can do, if political will is available.

Here is an excerpt from an IDSA Paper:

http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/CurrentChineseincursionLessonsfromSomdurongChuIncident_msingh_260413

On 26 June, 1986, the Government of India (GOI) lodged a formal protest with the Chinese government that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) had intruded in the Thandrong pasture on the banks of the Somdurong Chu (river) under the Zimithang circle of Tawang district. This was days before the seventh round of border talks which was due between the two countries. The area of intrusion, in the vicinity of the Thag La ridge, had seen bloody conflict in 1962. Considered neutral since 1962-63, it was not monitored till 1980. Patrolling resumed in 1981 and by the summer of 1984, India established a post in the area manned by the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB), a para-military force , which was vacated in winters. On 16 June 1986, a patrol of 12 ASSAM regiment of the Indian Army noticed Chinese presence in the area and construction of a few permanent structures. The Chinese soldiers were initially identified to be 40 and were soon reinforced by 200 more troops. They were being maintained by mules along a seven km mule track. By August, they had constructed a helipad and were being air supplied.1

The GOI, made an offer to China to withdraw from the area with an understanding that India would not reoccupy the vacated area, the following summer. This was rejected by the Chinese. At the Seventh round of border talks that were held from 21-23 July 1986, despite the standoff, the issue was discussed “intensively” with no solution, resulting in acrimony and tension.2 Meanwhile, the Chinese 'dug in' to prepare to stay through the winter of 1986. The Indian Army then air lifted a Brigade from 5 Mountain Division to Zimithang and occupied the ridges dominating the Somdurong Chu. Deng Xiaoping took a tough stand and said that it was time to "teach India a lesson”, a message conveyed through the visiting US Secretary of Defence, Caspar Weinberger during a stopover at New Delhi from Beijing. Simultaneously, the PLA moved 20,000 troops of the 53 Group Army and 13 Group Army along with guns and helicopters. There were reports that unemployed Tibetan youth were recruited at RMB 300 per month, essentially for administrative duties.3 Tibetans also reported movement and mobilisation of PLA in the areas around Lhasa and parts of the Tibetan plateau. The Indian Army moved up to three divisions into the positions around Wangdung, maintaining them by air. In addition as many as ten divisions were mobilised to the Eastern sector with almost 50,000 troops in Arunachal Pradesh alone with substantial assets from the Indian Air Force. Simultaneously, the Indian Army conducted a massive air- land exercise called 'Chequerboard ' which commenced in October, 1986 and continued till March 1987.4 This was in conjunction with another major military exercise called ‘Brasstacks’ on the western borders. These exercises demonstrated the will and capability of the Indian armed forces to fight a war on both fronts.

Soon after, hectic diplomatic parleys between the two countries worked towards defusing the situation. In April 1987, defence minister K.C Pant made a scheduled transit halt at Beijing and delivered a message of peace. In May 1987 the external affairs minister N.D Tiwari visited China reaffirming the desire of the GOI to continue border talks and lower tensions. In August, the field commanders met on the ground and agreed to move their posts apart. By November, the eighth round of border talks were held which called for an end to ‘military confrontation’ and laid the ground work for the pull back of the militaries. Subsequently, China extended an invitation to Rajiv Gandhi to visit China in 1988.

What were the lessons learnt?

For China, it appears the standoff diverted the focus of attention from Aksai-chin to the Eastern sector, linking the two to any future solution of the border dispute. China also realized the futility of conflict with a determined, well prepared and well-equipped Indian Army. According to Keshav Mishra, "Overt display of military power had effectively neutralised any adventurist step" by China.5 Moreover, it was China that extended the ‘olive branch’ inviting Rajiv Gandhi to visit China in a bid to normalise the relations. In retrospect, the firm will of the GOI may have been instrumental in shaping China’s strategy of ‘a face saving pull out’ from Somdurong Chu.

For India, it was a wakeup call. The GOI immediately shifted focus on infrastructure development, logistic management, redeployment of additional resources and construction of airfields and advanced landing grounds in the North East, changing its policy of years of neglect of the erstwhile North East Frontier Agency (NEFA).6 As a beginning, India voted for statehood for NEFA and the new state of Arunachal Pradesh was created in December 1986. It would be pertinent to quote Rajiv Gandhi in his speech to Parliament on 3rd March 1987.

He said: "There has been tension on our border with China. We want a peaceful settlement of the border issue. It will need wisdom and statesmanship. It will need vision and firmness. Firmness is included in wisdom….. It is this perspective that should guide our countries in seeking a solution to the problem".7

The recent Chinese intrusion at Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) on 15 April this year and the ongoing standoff with the PLA is in many ways similar to the Somdorung-Chu incident. India could do well to learn from the past while chalking out strategies for an amicable solution to the present.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Deans » 18 Jan 2017 11:55

shiv wrote:
Deans wrote:As a starting point, can someone list what forces the PLA can deploy against us in Ladakh and the North East ? What do we realistically have to counter them. What reserves can either side deploy (in a situation where bridges will be knocked out) within a week ? I suspect our gaps will be in logistics - the ability to transport reserves and the firepower of our forward units (we could be outnumbered 2:1 in manpower but 3:1 in firepower).

We spend all our time discussing forces forces forces. We need to talk terrain and logistics as well. That is one og the problems I have been banging my head against. The terrain is totally unique and as is the geography and climate. And without talking logistics - talking force is a pointless exercise.
I urge you to forget forces for a while and even be accused of being stupid. Look at terrain and logistics first and then lok at what forces are needed for individual areas of terrain and the logistics for that,

We are dealing with these issues like BRF used to deal with air warfare an couple of years ago. We never spoke about anything other than air to air warfare and interception - BVR or dogfights. Attack and the role of offensive air power was never ever discussed among a "Top Gun" smitten audience.

Forget forces. Look at terrain and logistics and then ask about how and what forces can be applied for offence and for defence


Shiv, I believe we have the same concerns. My concern is that the total no of `China + reserve', troops we have means little, if we cannot get them to where they are required, due to constraints of terrain and logistics. For e.g. in the West, we have 2 divisions in Leh and 1 in Yol (H.P). If road links into Leh are knocked out and brigades in Kargil and Siachen (part of the 2 divisions of 14th Corps in Leh) cannot be moved, for how long can 1 division in Leh hold ground against a superior force ? We could be similarly vulnerable in Tawang, if, for e.g. a few river bridges are destroyed. That would isolate 4th Corps from the rest of India (I'm assuming that if here is a conflict we would face a numerically superior force, though Rohit's post suggests the situation is not as bad as I assumed).

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby disha » 18 Jan 2017 12:08

Deans wrote:If I study Vivek Ahuja's brilliantly written Chimera, (in the absence of any other India-China war simulation) the battles, if tweaked only slightly, can result in an overwhelming Chinese victory - and Vivek's counterparts in China have probably gamed that.


Are you suggesting that the chinese can read english?

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Philip » 18 Jan 2017 12:10

Yes,in China's book,India must not possess any mil force that will not surrender to it at the sound of the first shot! As in '62 we are supposed to retreat as quickly as possible,running downhill ,throwing awayy our weapons in true Nehruvian fashion,and kowtowing to the ranks of Chin with the respect that they're due as overlords of Asia ,the Pacific and the rest of the world to come! Any sign of steel from Indian forces would be a most despicable and dishonourable act which would mean imprisoning the barbarian perpetrators in small bamboo cages for at least a year as per ancient Chinese custom.

It is further demanded that all vassal states of Asia must henceforth change their toasting protocol at all official banquets in the following manner.
Toasting with wine is abolished. From now on toasting will be of "XI Gins" in honour of the PRC supremo! Adding Bitters and tonic water is optional.Pink gins preferred as it reminds one that the supremo is a p*g! Those who cannot complete the XI Gin toast and remain standing will also be sent to the cages!

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby disha » 18 Jan 2017 12:27

Shiv'ji - we are assuming that the chinese transport options are clean and efficient and fast. A rail line on a high altitude desert needs to be maintained very well to be always in operating conditions. The tracks expand and contract by several meters in a single day. A snowstorm or ice on the tracks make it difficult for certain sections - since some areas will be frozen and other section of the tracks will be sunk. On map it will look like a straight line but in reality the train cannot ply unless the track is deemed safe.

Here is another part, some of the tracks were built on permafrost. With global warming et al and say a hot day will sink the entire section.

Basically., amassing 100k men and material to carry war into India is not easy. And this men and material are sitting ducks!

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Deans » 18 Jan 2017 12:39

disha wrote:
Deans wrote:If I study Vivek Ahuja's brilliantly written Chimera, (in the absence of any other India-China war simulation) the battles, if tweaked only slightly, can result in an overwhelming Chinese victory - and Vivek's counterparts in China have probably gamed that.


Are you suggesting that the chinese can read english?


I'm suggesting that the Chinese have far more people who can read English, than the number of our analysts who can read Mandarin.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby kit » 18 Jan 2017 12:46

Deans wrote:
disha wrote:
Are you suggesting that the chinese can read english?


I'm suggesting that the Chinese have far more people who can read English, than the number of our analysts who can read Mandarin.


they are building heavy lift transports and we are still in buying mode ... so build up a good fleet ..lets go to beijing by the time they get here :mrgreen: .. i would fancy a tom yong fried duck :mrgreen: by afternoon

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Lisa » 18 Jan 2017 14:32

A_Gupta wrote:http://thediplomat.com/2017/01/why-indi ... ile-china/

Relevant to understand Chinese agitation.

Quote:
Many in China believe that India’s programs to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile and a strategic nuclear triad, with future MIRV capability, have moved beyond the requirements of minimum deterrence with the potential of upsetting the existing balance of power


It is the eventual transition from counter strike to counter force that really concerns the Chinese. They know we will succeed!

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 18 Jan 2017 14:41

disha wrote:Shiv'ji - we are assuming that the chinese transport options are clean and efficient and fast.

What we hear in the media is
1. China has built roads right up to the border
2. China has a railway line to Lhasa - to be extended further

When I looked at Aksai Chin I found that China's real ability to transport huge forces by road was probably less than it was given credit for because the geography is really harsh and the last 200 km from the best roads are rough mountain roads often dust tracks crossing rivers. the river crossing without bridges can be seen in places and dust tracks recognizable from absence of road markings and a huge cloud of dust behind any truck on the road.

And guess what - the picture looks similar in the East - though I still have a long way to go in looking at every detail.

In the easternmost part - just North of the area of Arunachal that China claims - there is provincial road S 201 that comes down a tortuous 200 plus km from the main "ring road" of Tibet - part of which is the so named G 318 highway. Of course I am going to scan every meter of this highway (S 201) and measure it on Google earth - but it runs along river valleys and seems to have plenty of hairpin bends as it descends from the 4.5 km high above treeline G 318 to 2400 meter river valley at the border. What I am doing may sound like masochism but actually its like a flying tour :lol:

From the look of it no major forces are going to come down this road in a big hurry.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 18 Jan 2017 14:42

Deans wrote: If road links into Leh are knocked out and brigades in Kargil and Siachen (part of the 2 divisions of 14th Corps in Leh) cannot be moved, for how long can 1 division in Leh hold ground against a superior force

Have you read my DFI article? It may be a bit boring but it is relevant to this very question.

You have stated "against a superior force". What superior force? How will they get there? What will they do after getting there? How can they be stopped etc are all addressed in that article. No matter which way you cut it - air power is going to play a huge role in that area.
Last edited by shiv on 18 Jan 2017 15:40, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby zoverian » 18 Jan 2017 15:16

shiv wrote:
Deans wrote: If road links into Leh are knocked out and brigades in Kargil and Siachen (part of the 2 divisions of 14th Corps in Leh) cannot be moved, for how long can 1 division in Leh hold ground against a superior force

Have you read my DFI article? It may be a bit boring but it is relevant to this very question.

You have stated "against a superior force". What superior force? How will they get there? What will they do after getting there? How can they be stopped etc are all addressed in that article. No matter which way you cut it - air power is going to play a huge role in that area.


Hello Shiv,

it would be helpful if you could provide the link for the same.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 18 Jan 2017 15:23

zoverian wrote:
shiv wrote:Have you read my DFI article? It may be a bit boring but it is relevant to this very question.

You have stated "against a superior force". What superior force? How will they get there? What will they do after getting there? How can they be stopped etc are all addressed in that article. No matter which way you cut it - air power is going to play a huge role in that area.


Hello Shiv,

it would be helpful if you could provide the link for the same.

Posting again
Chinese Roads And Infrastructure In Aksai Chin – A Google Earth Study

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Deans » 18 Jan 2017 15:46

Shiv, I haven't read it. I will study it later today.

My point about Leh was based on the PLA's ORBAT detailed in Rohit Vats blog (I haven't found anything more detailed).
I'm assuming that the PLA's new Western Theatre Command will have the same forces (or slightly less, given that the PLA is downsizing) that the Lanzhou and Chengdu military regions had. The units that can be quickly be deployed against Ladakh, are those of the Xinjiang and Gansu military districts excluding their armed police divisions, of the Lanzhou MR. The other 3 MD's of the Lanzhou military region would be in reserve.
These units would comprise roughly: 3 Infantry Divisions, 2 Mechanised divisions + 3 infantry & 2 artillery brigades.

Against this, we have 3rd ID in Leh, with an artillery brigade and perhaps 1 brigade from 8th Mountain Div. These can be reinforced by a division each moving up from Yol and from 15th Corps in the Kashmir valley.
If the PLAAF attacks the roads and delay the deployment of those units, then we will be outnumbered 3: 1 for perhaps the first 96 hours of a conflict (with a big disparity in armour, though that advantage should be negated by the terrain) . This is a `worst case scenario' for us, which assumes the PLA is able to concentrate the equivalent of 5-6 divisions without a reaction from our side.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby chola » 18 Jan 2017 16:01

Not only do we need to look at terrain and logistics but we also need to look at the geo-political landscape.

The chini geo-political landscape is the overwhelmingly developed parts of the country are in the East faced by overwhelmingly powerful forces in the US and Japan. While its least developed and least useful parts are in the west. This lopsided geo-political landscape dictates that its military must concentrate on protecting its most valuable regions against its most powerful adversaries. There is very little left over for Tibet and the undeveloped west.

I said years ago that India repeatedly miscalculates the ability of its threats and we end up buying weapons for the moment and neglecting building our own systems because we need the "best" onlee right here and now to deal with a "two front" war. India do not have first-rate militaries as its adversaries. Whatever Pakistan has and whatever the PRC could spare on its Indian border could be handled by a mere faction of the Indian forces today.

This means a full on, no holds barred effect by the IA and IAF would be an offensive effort into Pakiland or Tibet. Tibet is actually preferable over pakiland since an overwhelming victory over porkis would result in even more terrorists and suicide bombers. Single-child athiest chinis are less likely to don the explosive vest and more likely to accept the ground situation and vacate the plateau and enjoy life in the east.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby kit » 18 Jan 2017 16:46

Can Google provide accurate and real time deployments of the Chinese military .. i really dont think so !! .. the last time the Chinese government forced them to modify some details to suit them ?

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby rohitvats » 18 Jan 2017 16:55

Deans wrote: <SNIP>Against this, we have 3rd ID in Leh, with an artillery brigade and perhaps 1 brigade from 8th Mountain Div. These can be reinforced by a division each moving up from Yol and from 15th Corps in the Kashmir valley. If the PLAAF attacks the roads and delay the deployment of those units, then we will be outnumbered 3: 1 for perhaps the first 96 hours of a conflict (with a big disparity in armour, though that advantage should be negated by the terrain) . This is a `worst case scenario' for us, which assumes the PLA is able to concentrate the equivalent of 5-6 divisions without a reaction from our side.


The defenses in Eastern theater from Ladakh down to Himachal-Tibet border (used to be referred to as Sugar Sector) is being rationalized.

We now have a brigade each for DBO, Chushul and Demchok sector. Plus, a brigade under reserve. In addition, an (I) armored brigade has been raised under 14 Corps for eastern Ladakh. As per one news report, plan is to have 1 x armored regiment in conjunction with a brigade for DBO. This is likely to be in addition to the tank regiments under the (I) armored brigade.

Siachen always had its own brigade which is now directly under 14 Corps HQ.

The threat to our infrastructure is AFTER the hostilities start.

Indian forces are located much closer to border than Chinese. You mentioned the division in YOL (BTW, Yol now has 9 Corps HQ while the Division has moved); in addition, IA can move additional divisions from plain (1 x division each from under the 1 and 2 Strike Corps). The road network from entire northern area to Leh through the Manali-Leh highway is pretty decent.

Apart from the road network, we've the airfields to move troops from other sectors - General Sundarji airlifted 6 Mountain Division into Ladakh in late 1987-early 1988 as part of Operation Trident (plan for assault on POK). Not to forget we're regularly practicing para-drops in the theater.

It is not beyond IA to move 2-3 more armored brigades, if required.

When it comes to rushing troops to border, we're much better placed than the Chinese. Problem is that we've been fed with so much 'China is so superior' propaganda that we assume it is going to be a cake-walk for them.

BTW - I learned an interesting thing few days back: Remember an article by Group Captain Bewoor about moving T-72 tanks to Leh by IL-76 in late 1980s? Well, it seems that these tanks were moved BY ROAD from Leh, over the Chang-La pass and through Shyok into DBO!!! This was done when our infrastructure in this area was simply not available. Today, the we should've a road from Darbuk to DBO by 2018/19.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 18 Jan 2017 17:35

kit wrote:Can Google provide accurate and real time deployments of the Chinese military .. i really dont think so !! .. the last time the Chinese government forced them to modify some details to suit them ?

That is the exact reason why Google Earth should not be used for real-time military deployment assessments. It is useful only for terrain studies and to some extent infrastructure with images that are between 1 to 10 years old. Every image must be checked for date.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 18 Jan 2017 17:50

Deans wrote:Shiv, I haven't read it. I will study it later today.
<snip>
If the PLAAF attacks the roads and delay the deployment of those units, then we will be outnumbered 3: 1 for perhaps the first 96 hours of a conflict (with a big disparity in armour, though that advantage should be negated by the terrain) . This is a `worst case scenario' for us, which assumes the PLA is able to concentrate the equivalent of 5-6 divisions without a reaction from our side.

My article deals with the roads that the PLA will have to use - the long stretches of kutcha road that have to be travelled before getting to the border and the fact of unpaved roads being churned up and turned to slush by large heavy forces travelling along them; the limited areas of the border that the roads actually reach indicating where we are likely to get hit by mechanized forces; the nearest airfields from which the PLAAF can service these areas - their distances and altitude (which affects takeoff load), the fact that the terrain inside Aksai Chin right up to the border is flat making armour sitting ducks for air attack and the fact that those mechanized forces have no easy way of descending from 5000 meter high plains via mountain roads to lower lands - where they will be exposed to defending forces picking them off at will.

When we talk size of forces - these are the things we never talk about. Any assumption that we are weak or powerless against the Chinese juggernaut needs a change of qibla

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Lalmohan » 18 Jan 2017 20:25

hope you have all read A. Tellis's book on the Indian Nuclear posture and the 'ugly deterrent' between India and China across the Himalaya for conventional war fighting...

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby SBajwa » 18 Jan 2017 20:49

According to wikipedia there are five trains daily serving Lhasa from Qinghai. I guess these are either mostly empty or freight trains!!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qinghai%E ... et_Railway

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lhasa_Railway_Station

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby manjgu » 18 Jan 2017 20:52

well my 2 cents..those who are questioning chinese logistic planning as being poor are smoking something ...a) even in 1962 the chinese paid great attention to logistics and intelligence. PLA is not Paki Army ..which climbed the kargil heights on a hope and prayer !! the chinese are known for paying great attention to detail while planning and having robust intelligence. After reading many accounts of 1962 war and subsequent actions..planning for logistics has never been a PLA weak point. they even calculated/planned the no of indian POW;s and built accommodation accordingly. b) though i tend to agree with other points..3 years back while in Tawang, happened to go to the residence of GOC ( fire and fury or fireball division or something like that)...he even took us to the Ops room with huge maps etc and made a presentation ( since there was a VVIP alongside us). He was very confident of tackling the chinkis. He told us everytime they wheel out the bofors the chinkis ring them on some hotline...it was a 30 min presentation covering very vital areas of Indo chinki border in AP.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby NRao » 18 Jan 2017 21:33

the chinkis ring them on some hotline..


All this stuff is either for internal consumption or to lull you into a sleep state.


But, coming to your logistics, etc, I tend to agree they are particular about details and especially this Prez of theirs. However, as it applies to this topic (ND in 48 hours, etc), someone needs to explain how that ca be done without the operation being considered a form of a suicide mission. I mean, if they want to take out top notch politician/s, you know something of that sort, OK, agreed, just could be possible. But, to send many troops that deep into any territory needs plans beyond simple logistics. Logistics plans to support such an intrusion should be plain to see/observe/detect - point being, the element of surprise would be lost.

Do they have gizmos to disable (paralyze entire divisions or something like that - not talking of disabling the force, but more like putting them to actual sleep), making any form of defense meaningless, it is very hard to plan a logistic support for such an endeavor. I would suggest near impossible.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby manjgu » 18 Jan 2017 22:05

i just repeated verbatim what he said... i meant logistics in context of a wider operation ...not ND in 48 hrs...

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Deans » 18 Jan 2017 22:06

This is the PLA's ORBAT for the Western Theatre command (formerly Lanzhou and Chengdu military regions)

https://jamestown.org/program/snapshot-chinas-western-theater-command/

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 18 Jan 2017 22:12

manjgu wrote:well my 2 cents..those who are questioning chinese logistic planning as being poor are smoking something ...a) even in 1962 the chinese paid great attention to logistics and intelligence. PLA is not Paki Army ..which climbed the kargil heights on a hope and prayer !! the chinese are known for paying great attention to detail while planning and having robust intelligence. After reading many accounts of 1962 war and subsequent actions..planning for logistics has never been a PLA weak point. .

Well half point extra to you for acknowledging that there is a thing called logistics. That should mean that if China has 5000 tanks - there must be a planned process by which they appear at the border or close to Delhi before kicking Indian butt.

Somehow our ahead of curve discussions have never ever taken into account that fact that even the Chinese have to plan logistics and those logistics involve planning and transport. Planning and transport need to take into account terrain and weather and possible enemy (Indian) action.

Even if the Chinese are the best logisticians on earth the fact that a problem called "logistics" exists imposes a kind of restriction before 5000 tanks start rolling towards Delhi. If we assume that a logistics issue does not exist at all, we have also got to assume that in the blink of an eye all 5000 Chinese tanks could appear North of Delhi. That is the standard of discussion we normally have on here IMO

The point is if 5000 Chinese tanks cannot appear in the blink of an eye north of Delhi
1. How long will it take for them to come
2. Can all 5000 come
3. If all 5000 cannot come why can't they come and how many can come
4. How much longer than the blink of an eye will they take to appear north of delhi
5. can they appear in 10 hours? Or 48 hours
6. How much time will we get
7. Where are the most likely to come from?
8. What can we do if anything

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 18 Jan 2017 22:23

The other question I would like to ask is - look at the border between India and Tibet and locate the points where India can actually go in and occupy territory and ask what forces we need to do that.

No one is doing that on BRF at least because we are always talking "defence" and we don't even think about offence against the Chinese. All that we know about the Chinese is that they kicked our butts in 1962 and each of us can name a 100 great things about the Chinese and why we will get our asses whupped again. When asked to step out of this box - we get tongue tied.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby SSharma » 18 Jan 2017 22:27

^^ so true

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 18 Jan 2017 22:27

Deans wrote:This is the PLA's ORBAT for the Western Theatre command (formerly Lanzhou and Chengdu military regions)

https://jamestown.org/program/snapshot-chinas-western-theater-command/


PLA publications detail several campaigns that the WTC could conduct including Antiterrorism Stability Maintenance operations to combat internal unrest; Joint Border Counterattack Campaigns to defend against an attack and regain lost territory;


Why would the Western theater command of the PLA have to worry about regaining lost territory? Don't they know that they will only be gaining territory? We seem to know that well.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Deans » 18 Jan 2017 22:30

Shiv, I've read the article and did a bit of Google earthing myself. I broadly concur with your views.

DBO and Chushul are areas where there is a road network good enough for the PLA to being a mechanised force upto our positions - albeit at
very high risk from air strikes and limited ability to maneuver. ( no coincidence that we were also attacked there in 1962).
If the PLA looks for a quick land grab in a short sharp war (after a slow build up of tension and some salami slicing, during which they bring up reinforcements, while we have chai-biskoot sessions) then a quick 2 division thrust against our brigade, into the relatively flat area around DBO
may be possible.

Rohit - My concerns on our airlift ability is weather we can do this in wartime. Its not just the PLAAF we have to contend with, but a possible deployment of the S-300/400 or HQ-9 long range SAM systems. One area where the IAF would have a comparative advantage over the PLAAF is
the payload restrictions the latter will face when operating from high altitude airfields.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 18 Jan 2017 22:38

Deans wrote:If the PLA looks for a quick land grab in a short sharp war (after a slow build up of tension and some salami slicing, during which they bring up reinforcements, while we have chai-biskoot sessions)

Of course it is possible to conjure up a million different storylines of which one storyline would be the above one. That is what fiction writers and movie makers thrive on. Fact is that if they start moving in heavy stuff their intent is not good - and it means that we have to start matching them in this theater and beefing up in the Eastern theater as well. They will have to respond to that if they have not started mobilizing there already - exposing their mal-intent. Going by the link you posted they will also start positioning naval assets weeks in advance and we have to get ready to take out their naval assets. Agonys will be dusted off in the process and naturally the Chinese whose planning abilities have been praised so greatly will have to react by readying their nuclear mijjile force

In other words two big powers will be getting ready for a hot war including a nuclear option and not a "quick border skirmish"

There will be no such thing as a quick land grab. It will mean war and the Chinese will have to get ready for that and put their money where their boasts are.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby sudeepj » 18 Jan 2017 22:42

shiv wrote:The other question I would like to ask is - look at the border between India and Tibet and locate the points where India can actually go in and occupy territory and ask what forces we need to do that.

No one is doing that on BRF at least because we are always talking "defence" and we don't even think about offence against the Chinese. All that we know about the Chinese is that they kicked our butts in 1962 and each of us can name a 100 great things about the Chinese and why we will get our asses whupped again. When asked to step out of this box - we get tongue tied.


This thread started with a garbage propaganda item from the Chinese (Delhi in 48 hours) and an amazing amount of energy has been spent taking that garbage at face value and then demolishing that strawman. What will the Chinese want by taking ND? The LAC/McMohan line is under dispute, not New Delhi! And if they attack New Delhi, will we not nuke Beijing/Shanghai? Further, a lot of focus is being put on Ladakh, when in reality, the Chinese already control whatever they want in Ladakh (the Aksai Chin plateau area). In that area, the Chinese are likely to be defensive and will try to keep us in a narrow area at the foot of the Ladakh ranges.

The real risk is in Arunachal and Sikkim! Can China limit conflict to these theaters and apply salami slicing tactics there?
They have been able to limit the scope of the conflict in 62 when Lehru declined to use IAF for fear of 'bombing raids' on Calcutta! Where is the guarantee that another loser will not make the same choice in 2062? This salami slicing continues to be Chinese modus operandi, as can be seen in the SCS.

As for offence vs defence, a 2% of GDP spent on military does not get you offence. Instead of appreciating his situation, Shiv ji is intent on situating his appreciation (the Dhoti shiver nonsense and counter propaganda on how IA will be offensive).

Instead of figuring out how a large, powerful and aggressive neighbor can be deterred from a limited war using diplomatic, military and political options, it is being posited that Indians are shivering in their dhotis and must take off the dhotis and wave them about to ensure morale!

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Deans » 18 Jan 2017 22:45

shiv wrote:The other question I would like to ask is - look at the border between India and Tibet and locate the points where India can actually go in and occupy territory and ask what forces we need to do that.

No one is doing that on BRF at least because we are always talking "defence" and we don't even think about offence against the Chinese. All that we know about the Chinese is that they kicked our butts in 1962 and each of us can name a 100 great things about the Chinese and why we will get our asses whupped again. When asked to step out of this box - we get tongue tied.


I think crossing into Tibet is less a question of ability than will.
Its not just political will. Army doctrine seems to suggest that unless we have a mountain strike corps, all our units facing the Chinese have to
fight defensive battles only. Our diffidence in raising this formation raises doubts about our inclination to take the battle to the Chinese.
Conceptually, I'm not sure how any corps can operate with its 2 divisions literally at opposite ends of the country. All our corps facing the Chinese
( 14th in Leh, 4th in Western Arunachal and 17th in Sikkim) should have the ability to take the battle to the Chinese, using the additonal resources earmarked for the Mountain strike corps.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 18 Jan 2017 22:47

sudeepj wrote:As for offence vs defence, a 2% of GDP spent on military does not get you offence. Instead of appreciating his situation, Shiv ji is intent on situating his appreciation (the Dhoti shiver nonsense and counter propaganda on how IA will be offensive).

Instead of figuring out how a large, powerful and aggressive neighbor can be deterred from a limited war using diplomatic, military and political options, it is being posited that Indians are shivering in their dhotis and must take off the dhotis and wave them about to ensure morale!

:rotfl: Sorry if the truth upsets you. No. Strike that. Not sorry at all. Actually quite pleased.

Your post is a classic BRF argument which stays even further away from the dirty business of war and calculates result of war from percentage of GDP spent on defence. Vietnam and the Taliban were both lucky that no one was calculating GDP percentage when they fought off the US (and the Russians in the case of the Taliban)

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Rakesh » 18 Jan 2017 22:47

While we have been discussing this issue in detail, the Indian Army has answered this useless Chinese claim in one sentence (and with a straight face!). Whether this is official or not, the Chinese have the got the message.

Their claim has ended like a brown stain on the mattress (i.e. a Wet Fart a.k.a. Brown Cloud a.k.a. Taco Torpedo a.k.a. Butt Burp)....
https://twitter.com/irajdeep/status/820550306899623936

P.S. Agni-V does not need 48 hours....India can reach Beijing MUCH, MUCH quicker.... :rotfl:

P.S.S. a.k.a. - Also Known As :)


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